[Index]
Tropical Cyclone IVAN
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone IVAN [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS22 PGTW 20080207 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3S 59.4E TO 13.3S 64.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 59.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 58.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLI-
DATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
EQUATORWARD AND DEVELOPING BANDS POLEWARD OF THE CENTER. A 062121Z
AMSR-E 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH THE
AFORMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BANDING. PREVIOUS QUIKSCAT IMAGES DEPICTED
25 TO 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
BEEN IMPINGING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD, WHICH WILL CREATE AN EVEN MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRON-
MENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 080130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080207 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070121Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.4S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.6S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.2S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 61.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
070136Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTI-
MATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICTING 25 TO
30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070121Z FEB 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 070130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW), AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.1S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.1S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.6S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.2S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 62.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S HAS UNDERGONE CONSIDERABLE DEVELOPMENT SINCE
THE LAST WARNING FROM THIS AGENCY, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE LIKE FEATURE
WHICH SUPPORTS THIS ESTIMATED WIND SPEED. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DUAL OUT-FLOW CHANNELS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080208 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 63.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 63.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.9S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.4S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.5S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 63.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS, WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS. A 080402Z SSMI-S
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE WEST WHICH SUPPORTS THIS
ESTIMATED WIND SPEED. THE TRACK OF TC 18S HAS SHIFTED FROM PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST TRACKS AND THE SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO A WEAKER
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING INFLUENCE FROM THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN BEGIN A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST FURTHER STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, AND THUS TC 16S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080208 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 63.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 63.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.3S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.1S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.9S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.7S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND FMEE. A 081447Z SSMI 85 GHZ PASS SHOWS A DEVELOPING BANDING
EYE. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE IN PART
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST REFLECTS AN EVEN SLOWER TRACK
THAN THE PREVIOUS. THE AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT; AND THEIR LARGE
SPREAD IS USUALLY INDICATIVE OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 18P WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 63.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 63.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.6S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.3S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.2S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.2S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
FMEE. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE LARGE SPREAD
OF THE AIDS IS USUALLY INDICATIVE OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 18S TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 48. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080209 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.3S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.1S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.9S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.7S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 63.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC
SYSTEM WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED ON THE
MOST RECENT 091420Z 37 GHZ SSMI PASS, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN LOWER
DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A REGION OF COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
TC 18S IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A GENERALLY
EASTWARD, BUT SLOW TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY FASTER AFTER TAU 24 DUE
TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITDE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 64.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 64.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.8S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.5S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.3S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN IN A REGION OF COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES BETWEEN THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 18S IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS LIMITED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS. A GENERALLY EASTWARD, BUT SLOW TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DUE TO WEAK-
ENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z
AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080210 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.4S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.3S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.2S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.3S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 65.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 101613Z SSMI/S 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ONCE
AGAIN SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A BANDING EYE. THE STORM CONTINUES
TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
FOR TC 18S. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS ALL FORECAST A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE STORM, BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS
TURN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST TRACK STAYS VERY CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, ESPECIALLY
AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 65.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 65.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.0S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.9S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.9S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.0S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 65.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS
AN EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
UNTIL AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO
A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS ALL FORECAST A TURN BACK TOWARD THE
WEST FOR THE STORM, BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, ESPECIALLY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.2S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.0S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.7S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.7S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 64.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIR-
ONMENT BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAU 12
AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE STORM WILL INTESIFY
VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INHIBITED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, THE INTENSIFICATION RATE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING IN SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND
122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.9S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.8S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.8S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.0S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S IS BEGINNING TO TRACK MORE
RAPIDLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
INDUCING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE STORM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER AN
AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPEC-
TED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO
REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z
IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.7S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.9S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.3S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 63.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. TC 18S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE STORM HAS FURTHER WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER AN AREA OF
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD, AN APPROAC-
HING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD ALLOW
THE STORM TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.7S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.0S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.5S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.2S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY POLE-
WARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. TC 18S HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS UNDER THE DUAL INFLUENCES OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL CROSS
OVER HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND APPROACH A REGION OF LOWER VER-
TICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AFTER
TAU 12. THESE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 36. THERE-
AFTER, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW THE STORM INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.7S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.2S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.9S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.5S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 60.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. TC 18S HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
AND A BANDING EYE IS NOW EVIDENT IN A 13/1512Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTERWARDS REGARDING THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF A POLEWARD TURN. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
FROM A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.9S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.6S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.2S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.6S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 59.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PGTW AND KNES INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE TC 18S HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND MOVEMENT OVER WATER WITH
HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 57.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 57.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.0S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.5S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.8S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.0S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 57.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH SUPERB
RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WELL TO THE EAST
APPEARS TO BE ACTING AS AN ADDITIONAL MASS SINK. A 14/1450Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BANDING EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 55.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 55.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.4S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.6S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.8S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MESAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED INTENS-
IFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE A BANDING EYE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS CONTINUE TO
BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS.
THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
(NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 53.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.8S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.8S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.9S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONT-
INUED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONF-
INED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICA-
TION THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
NEAR TAU 36 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. AVAILABLE MODEL
AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080216 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.8S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.1S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.5S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.9S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.0S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFI-
CATION THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. AVAILABLE
MODEL AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.3S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.5S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.4S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.1S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 52.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD, TURNING POLEWARD OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU
36. TC 18S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLY HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND EXCELLENT, RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
DRIVEN BY A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND
TAU 24 AND STEADILY WEAKENING OVER LAND THERAFTER. THE TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD IN THE NEAR TO
MEDIUM TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANGE IN THE ANTICIPATED EXTENT OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z,
170300Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.7S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.8S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.0S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.7S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S
CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TURNING POLEWARD
OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 24. TC 18S HAS RAPIDLY INTEN-
SIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLY HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND EXCELLENT, RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
DRIVEN BY A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND
TAU 24 AND STEADILY WEAKEN OVER LAND THERAFTER. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 51.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 51.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.3S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.7S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.4S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.2S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 50.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONT-
INUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PER-
IPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD, WITH LANDFALL
EXPECTED AROUND TAU 12. AFTER THAT, TC 18S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
OVER MADAGASCAR WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED AROUND TAU 72. THIS
FORECASTIS SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z
AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.9S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.6S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.3S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.0S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 50.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONT-
INUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PER-
IPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD, WITH LANDFALL
EXPECTED BEFORE TAU 12. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE STORM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, WEAKEN OVER MADAGASCAR,
AND ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 72. THIS FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS.
THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 49.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 49.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.4S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.1S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.0S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.4S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES
TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM
HAS MADE LANDFALL ON NOSY SAINTE MARIE ISLAND AND IS CONTINUING
TOWARD THE COAST OF MAINLAND MADAGASCAR NEAR THE TOWN OF
SOANIERANA-IVONGO. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE STORM MAY REEMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO LAND AND
SHOULD THEREFORE WEAKEN BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS.
THUS, THE CURRENT WARNING CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
BY TAU 48 BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION AFTER PASSAGE
ACROSS THE ISLAND REMAINS. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z,
172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
(NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080217 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.6S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.5S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.2S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.1S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 48.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER
LAND. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TAKES AN
UNANTICIPATED TRACK AND REEMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
SOME REGENERATION MAY OCCUR. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN
OVER LAND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.3S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.0S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.7S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 47.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER LAND
AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WEAKENING
BELOW 35 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING
OVER LAND SHORTLY NEAR TAU 48. WHILE ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER LAND, SHOULD THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TAKE AN UNANTICIPATED TRACK AND REEMERGE
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SOME REGENERATION MAY OCCUR. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 47.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 47.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.1S 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.3S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.2S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 46.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 18S
CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE STORM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER LAND AND CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WEAKENING BELOW 35 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24 AND ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATING OVER LAND NEAR TAU 36. WHILE ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER LAND, SHOULD THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TAKE AN UNANTICIPATED TRACK AND REEMERGE
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SOME REGENERATION MAY OCCUR. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 18.6S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 46.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.6S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.6S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 46.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PER-
IPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER LAND AND CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WEAKENING BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO TAU 12
AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER LAND NEAR TAU 24. AFTER
THE ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION, THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUED
TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL EMERGENCE OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND REGENERATION MAY OCCUR. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 46.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 46.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.1S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 46.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40
NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN. THE FORECAST IS BASED
UPON AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LAND AS IT WEAKENS BELOW
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BY TAU 12. AFTER THE
ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION, THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR REGENERATION AS THE POTENTIAL FOR EMERGENCE
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL STILL REMAINS. NEXT WARNING AT
182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20080218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 45.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 45.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.5S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 45.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT SURFACE
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED BELOW 35 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
ANTANANARIVO AT CPA (ABOUT 40 NM) INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 43 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP NEAR 1003 MB.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS TRACK THE REMNANTS OF TC 18S INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR TAU 24, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: ivan.htm
Updated: 19th February 2008 |
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