[Index]
Tropical Cyclone JOKWE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone JOKWE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080304 16:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/041621ZMAR2008//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 55.7E TO 12.2S 49.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 55.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4S 55.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 670 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 041013Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE LLCC LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 051630Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080305 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041621ZMAR2008//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 11.9S 53.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 53.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 12.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.4S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.7S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.3S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 52.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THIS DISPLACEMENT IS DUE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LIMITING FACTOR OF THE SHEAR
IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STORM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WILL
CAUSE LAND FALL AROUND TAU 24 TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL
AFTER WHICH LAND INTERACTION WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE
STORM WILL REMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL PRIOR TO TAU 36
AND INTENSIFY DUE TO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS,
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 041621ZMAR2008 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 041630) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080305 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 50.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 50.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.1S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.5S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.2S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.0S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 50.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 22S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
DECREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME LIMITATION IMPOSED BY LAND
INTERACTION AND PERSISTENT, THOUGH MODERATE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AFTER TAU 24, THE STORM MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSI-
FICATION AS IT MOVES UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER
VERY WARM WATER IN THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE, WHICH ESTIMATES A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND
061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080306 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 49.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 49.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.3S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.5S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.0S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.6S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 48.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STORM TOWARD A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED SLI-
GHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INTERACTION WI-
TH LAND. AS TC 22S MOVES WEST OVER THE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOU-
ND IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AS
THE STORM ENCOUNTERS IMPROVED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND MODERATE, VERTI-
CAL WIND SHEAR. THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE AIDED BY THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL MOVE IN OVER THE STORM ASS-
ISTING WITH OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHT-
LY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SL-
IGHTLY ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEI-
GHT AT 060000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080306 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 46.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 46.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.7S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.6S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.4S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.3S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 46.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION
NEAR TAU 48. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY AFTER CROSSING OVER
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR NEARLY 12 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM ALL
AVAILABLE AGENCIES. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG ITS TRACK. GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER
THIS TIME, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSETTING
INFLUENCES OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080307 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 45.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 45.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.8S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.5S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 44.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION
NEAR TAU 48. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 77 KNOTS. TC 22S WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
THE INLFUENCES OF AN AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT NEAR TAU 24. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z AND 080300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080307 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 42.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 42.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.4S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.5S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.7S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.9S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 42.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080307 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.6S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.8S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.9S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.0S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 41.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS ONCE AGAIN
INTENSIFIED AND IS DISPLAYING A 07 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 TO 102 KNOTS FROM THE AVAILABLE FIX AGENCIES. TC 22S
WILL MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE
STORM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE BY TAU 36 AND MAINTAIN
STRENGTH FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED LAND INTERACTION. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES
OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS ARE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DUE TO STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080308 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 008
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 40.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 40.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.2S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.2S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.5S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.7S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 40.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AT 08/06Z, THE STORM EXHIBITED A SMALL,
7 NM DIAMETER EYE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE PRESENT STEERING RIDGE TOWARD THE BASE OF
A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM CENTER ACROSS LAND
IN NORTHEASTERN MOZAMBIQUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
REEMERGE OVER WATER, WHERE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL COMPETE WITH FAVORABLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO HOLD STORM
INTENSITY NEARLY STEADY. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN TO DIVERGE, WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN PREDICTING WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER LAND AND THE OTHER
MODELS PREDICTING AN EVENTUAL POLEWARD RECURVATURE. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO DUE TO THE PREDICTED INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATION OF HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE LAND INTERACTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080308 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 008
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 39.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 39.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.4S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.5S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.6S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.5S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 39.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 22S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A
RECENTLY DEVELOPED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE STORM. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM CENTER BACK OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE IN THE NEXT 06 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. ONCE BACK
OVER THE FAVORABLE WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE AID OF THE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPLIED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AFTER TAU 24, THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND WARM WATERS AS THE STORM BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE
FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO THE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE STORM WHILE OVER
LAND. OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080309 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 39.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 39.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.5S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.8S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.0S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.1S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 39.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE STORM CENTER HAS REEMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AFTER MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN MOZAMBIQUE FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS.
PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOP-
ING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE ALLOWED THE STORM TO
NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE THE CONTINUED INTERACTION OF LAND
WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
TOWARD A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN AND LOITER IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TC 22S WILL GRADUALLY MOVE CLOSER TO THIS LOW
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME CYCLONIC MOVE-
MENT IN THE STORM TRACK AFTER TAU 24 AS THE TWO CIRCULATIONS
INTERACT. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO INTENSIFY A BIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BUT ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING
AFTER TAU 24. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND NON-
TROPICAL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY LEAD TO EVENTUAL MERGER OF
THE TWO CIRCULATIONS, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER, THIS MERGER WILL PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETE UNTIL
AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENITY FORECASTS
REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL
CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080309 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 39.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 39.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.4S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.9S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.1S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.0S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 39.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S HAS TRACKED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. WARM WATER AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM
HAS ALLOWED FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS CUTOFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND WILL LOITER IN THE
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TC 22S
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE CLOSER TO THIS LOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTERACTION OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS WILL BEGIN AFTER TAU 24 AS
THE TRACK OF TC 22S SLOWS AND TURNS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW TC
22S TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24. INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE TC AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY LEAD TO AN
EVENTUAL MERGER OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN
THE TC. HOWEVER, THIS MERGER WILL PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETE UNTIL
AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL
CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 39.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 39.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.9S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.3S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.2S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.8S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 39.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND UNFAVORABLE, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE BASE OF THE AFOREMEN-
TIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF, UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE
STORM TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO MID-LEVEL INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE STORM AND TROUGH CIRCULATIONS. AS THE STORM NEARS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRODUCTION
OF DRIER, SUBSIDENT AIR WILL WEAKEN TC 22S. AS THIS INTERACTION
PROGRESSES, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48, THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN ITS
WARM CORE STRUCTURE AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE AND A SECOND RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE STORM MAY DEVELOP,
ALLOWING THE STORM TO LOITER IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL
AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 40.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 40.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.3S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.5S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.2S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.4S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 40.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL WILL INDUCE SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE STORM TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO MID-LEVEL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM AND
TROUGH CIRCULATIONS. AS THE STORM NEARS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, IN-
CREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER, SUBSIDENT
AIR WILL WEAKEN TC 22S. AS THIS INTERACTION PROGRESSES, PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY THE ENVI-
RONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN ITS WARM CORE STRUCTURE AND REMAIN
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRON-
MENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A SECOND RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE WEST OF THE STORM MAY DEVELOP, ALLOWING THE STORM TO LOITER IN
THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080311 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 41.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 41.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.8S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.5S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.7S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.7S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 41.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING EYE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. AN 110406Z
SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM HAS TRACKED MORE SOUTHEASTWARD THAN EXPECTED POSSIBLY DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND TC 22S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER
TAU 12, TC 22S WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND SLOW AS A WEAK
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS SOUTH. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STORM WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOW OR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080311 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 25.1S 41.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 41.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.1S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.6S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.7S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.5S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALLOWING A WEAK STEERING RIDGE TO BUILD IN
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE AND ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE FORMING
TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE TC 22S TO PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
NEAR TAU 36. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080312 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 25.2S 40.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 40.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.4S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.5S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.4S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.2S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 40.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 120352Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE
WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION ARE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC
ON THE 120347Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHICH HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO RE-
MAIN SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SLOW, QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION UNTIL AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH INDUCES A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER TAU 72. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS BUT IS SLOWER AFTER TAU 24. TC 22S IS TRACKING OVER
GENERALLY FAVORABLE SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WITH IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW
NEAR 30S 55E. HOWEVER, INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TREND BEARS
WATCHING CONSIDERING THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND CONTINUED
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31
PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080312 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 25.7S 40.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 40.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.8S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.5S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.0S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.6S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 40.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 1733Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT. THE STORM IS
CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE MODELS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WBAR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW EQUATORWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, AS AN ANTICYCLONE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE POLEWARD TRACK. SOME POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM MOVES FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ENCOUNTER LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND HIGHER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
INTENSIFICATION IS BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080313 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 25.1S 40.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 40.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.0S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.9S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.9S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.0S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 40.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 22S PEAKED IN INTENSITY NEAR 13/03Z WITH DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES JUMPING TO 77 KNOTS (PGTW, KNES AND FMEE). OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED WITH THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD-
FILLED AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON A
130520Z SSMIS IMAGE, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION. TC 22S IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WEST, NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM,
THEREFORE, THE AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WAS SHIFTED TO A SLOWER, MORE EASTWARD TRACK
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE CURRENT LOOP AND THE
CONTINUED WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE. MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. TC 22S IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT REMAINS WITHIN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z
AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080313 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 40.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 40.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.4S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.3S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.2S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.1S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 40.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE INDICATE THAT TC
22S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE DROP
IN INTENSITY WAS DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING ON
THE SYSTEM. WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH-
EAST, THE STORM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS LEAD TO POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE
AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD
RESULT IN STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKEN THE STORM
FURTHER, UNTIL IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY BEING LOWER THAN
EXPECTED, THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080314 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 020
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 40.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 40.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.2S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.0S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 40.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS EXERTING
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER STEERING INFLUENCE, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE THE STORM SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22S IS STEADILY WEAKENING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ITS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS NOW EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE
WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF THIS DESTRUCTIVE SHEAR. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE
BEEN REDUCED IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT STEADY WEAKENING TREND,
BUT THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CLOSE TO THE
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080314 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 25.3S 40.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 40.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.3S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH RE-
MAINING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. TC 22S
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 22S CONTINUES
TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND IS NOW EX-
PECTED TO DROP BELOW 30 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS
14 FEET.
|
Document: jokwe.htm
Updated: 15th March 2008 |
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