[Index]
Tropical Cyclone LOLA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone LOLA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080321 14:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 60.5E TO 16.4S 56.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 211230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 59.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221400Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080321 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351Z MAR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.3S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.8S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.8S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 59.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTHEAST OF
LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ADVANCE OF A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. A 211418Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
PGTW DVORAK ANALYSIS AND 211422Z QUIKSCAT DATA. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE AND FURTHER
INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO SUSTAINABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AID, WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
211351Z MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 211400)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080322 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.4S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.3S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.0S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.8S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 58.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, A PORTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUIDLING IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE STORM WILL INFLUENCE STORM MOTION, INDUCING AN EQUATOR-
WARD COMPONENT IN THE STORM TRACK. OVERALL STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN
SLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE WEAKENED STEERING FLOW.
TC 25S HAS INTENSIFIED ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER
THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVOR-
ABLE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL
FLOW OF AN UPPER-LEVEL, MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH-
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220328Z TRMM PASS SHOW THAT THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTIALLY-EXPOSED IN RESPONSE TO
THIS SHEAR. THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN RESPONSE
TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE
CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080322 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.0S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.0S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.0S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.1S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE STORM HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POOL
OF UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE FACTORS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY TILL TAU 24. BY TAU 24,
THE FORECAST TAKES THE STORM BACK OVER FAVORABLE WARM WATER.
THE WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL
AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND
232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080323 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 57.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 57.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.2S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.2S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.2S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.4S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 57.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. THIS GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE STORM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS
IN THE STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TURNING POLE-
WARD. TC 25S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER
THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIS-
PLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM HAS ENCOUNTERED AN AREA OF LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT DURING THE SAME PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE STORM SHOULD ALSO ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE ALONG-
TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST ANTICIPATES
SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE STORM ENTERS THE
STEERING WEAKNESS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL DROP AND DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW MAY DEVELOP. THEREFORE,
THE INTENSIFICATION RATE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 36.
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND
240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080323 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.4S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.5S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.1S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
THIS GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
IT BEGINS A RECURVATURE POLEWARD BY TAU 24. THE RECURVE IS DUE
TO THE STORM ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS INDUCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TC 25S HAS MAINTAIN STRENGTH BUT NOT INTENSIFIED
AS ANTICIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS KEPT THE STRONG FROM INTENSIFYING OR WEAKENING. AS
THE STORM TRACKS WESTWARD INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL
CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080324 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 55.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED 50NM SOUTH. IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATION AND
WEAKENING OF THE LLCC WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE PAST
03 HOURS. A 24/0201Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATED 30-KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A DRIFTING BUOY
REPORT (#14903) OF 999MB. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH POSITIONING AND INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 25-30
KNOT EASTERLIES OVER THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FUELING AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 100NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCOUPLING OF THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION RESULTING IN
SLOW, ERRATIC MOTION AND A POSSIBLE LOOP AT THIS TIME. THE LLCC
SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY RE-INTENSIFY WITH THE MODELS SPLIT AND MAINLY INDIC-
ATING RE-DEVELOPMENT AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 72. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 15 FEET.//
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Document: lola.htm
Updated: 25th March 2008 |
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