[Index]
Tropical Cyclone MELANIE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone MELANIE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20071227 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 117.9E TO 16.0S 117.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 117.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.4S 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY
420 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN A 271722Z AMSU IMAGE AND A 271315Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CIRCULATION DESPITE MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL NORTHERLY WINDS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE.
THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DIS-
TURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REORIENTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. DUE
TO AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT
IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/272051Z DEC 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.5S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.6S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.6S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.2S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 08S HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND A 272155Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED 30-35 KT WINDS NEAR THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST-
WARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, TC 08S BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 08S WILL INTENSIFY DUE TO GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST
IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOC-
CEN 272051Z DEC 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
272100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071228 15:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.0S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.7S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.2S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.9S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 118.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INITIAL POSITIONING IS BASED ON A 281200Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE STORM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG AN
EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTER TAU 24, TC 08S WILL BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 08S WILL INTENSIFY DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORT-
ED BY THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 21200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORREC-
TION: CORRECTED DIRECTION OF MOTION REFERENCE IN REMARKS SECTION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.9S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.9S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.6S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.0S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.1S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 118.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND A 281715Z AMSR-E PASS.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0/3.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND APRF YIELD AN
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TC 08S CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA ALONG A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE EAST OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, THE
WESTWARD COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM IMPARTS AN INCREASING STEERING INFLUENCE. THE PERI-
PHERAL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL, SYNOPTIC-SCALE ANTI-
CYCLONE CENTERED EAST OF TC 08S CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE STORM BY
INTRODUCING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, GOOD POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICA-
TION DESPITE THIS SHEAR. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE IS FORECASTED
TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 24 AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SYSTEM
PROVIDES A STRONGER BUFFER AGAINST THE SHEARING FLOW. AFTER TAU 48,
DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD AGAIN REDUCE THE STORM\'S CAPA-
CITY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE
IN GOOD, GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071229 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.7S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.4S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.0S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.2S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.3S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 117.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND A
282319Z SSMI PASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.0/4.0 FROM PGTW AND
3.0/3.0 FROM APRF AND EVIDENCE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE IN THE
282319Z SSMI PASS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55
KNOTS. TC 08S IS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD AS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH EXERTS AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM
MOTION. THE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PERIPHERAL FLOW ASSOCI-
ATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL, SYNOPTIC-SCALE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED EAST
OF TC 08S CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE STORM BY INTRODUCING NORTHEAST-
ERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD SUPPORT SLOW INTENSIFICATION DESPITE
THIS SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WILL HAMPER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OR PERHAPS INDUCE
SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD, GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071229 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.6S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.4S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.8S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.9S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.9S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 116.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071229 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 116.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 116.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.0S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.7S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.0S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.5S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 115.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND A 291152Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KT. TC 08S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AS ITS
STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS FROM THE RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE
TC TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
DECREASING OUTFLOW AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071229 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 115.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 115.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.0S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.8S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.2S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.5S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.1S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 115.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CENTER POSITION HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETECT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE STORM IS BEING
STEERED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, AND WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY TAU 24. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE A DECREASE IN THE TRACK SPEED DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, BUT DO NOT INDICATE A POLEWARD TURN TOWARD
THIS WEAKNESS. THE STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS
OF A MORE POLEWARD TRACK OR STAIR-STEP AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK SOUTH OF THE
STORM. THE STORM MAY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE 200 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DECREASES. AFTER TAU 24, THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NEAR 113E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z,
301500Z AND 302100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071230 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 114.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 114.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.2S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.7S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.7S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.0S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 113.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 85 GHZ AND 37 GHZ
CHANNELS OF A 292129Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATE CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD A
STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NEAR 113E, AND WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AFTER IT MOVES WEST OF THIS GRADIENT AFTER TAU 12.
THE STORM IS BEING STEERED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
DYNAMIC AIDS DO NOT SHOW THE STORM RESPONDING TO THIS WEAKNESS.
HOWEVER, JGSM, TCLAPS, AND WBAR FORECAST A MORE SOUTHWEST TRACK.
THE STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF A STAIR-STEP
TRACK AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND
310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071230 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.0S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.3S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.7S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.1S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.2S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 113.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300538Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATE CONVECTION IS
BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF COLD AIR STRATO-
CUMULUS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA
TOWARD A STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NEAR 113E. AFTER TAU 12,
THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER THIS AREA OF UNFAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, BUT THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC AIDS DO NOT SHOW THE
STORM RESPONDING TO THIS WEAKNESS. HOWEVER, TCLAPS AND WBAR CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A MORE SOUTHWEST TRACK. THE STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
ANY SIGNS OF A STAIR-STEP TRACK AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STORM WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071230 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.3S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.6S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.0S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.4S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.6S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 112.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301137Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATE CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD
WATERS WITH INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE STORM OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
DYNAMIC AIDS DO NOT SHOW THE STORM RESPONDING TO THIS WEAKNESS. HOWEVER,
THE STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF A STAIR-STEP TRACK
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER COOLER
WATERS NEAR TAU 72. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071230 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 011
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 112.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 112.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.3S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.6S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.0S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.5S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 112.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM HAS LOST A SIG-
NIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN THE PAST 06 HOURS AND A 301821Z TRMM
PASS INDICATES THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE TRACK SPEED OF 08S
HAS SLOWED DUE TO THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE STORM AND A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH HAS
NOW MOVED ON TO THE EAST. TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND TOWARD A
FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL
FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. THE STORM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
OVER WATER BY TAU 36 AND WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE, DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THAT THE STORM COULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND 312100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071231 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.1S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.5S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.0S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 110.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND A 310948Z SSMI PASS INDICATES
THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE TRACK SPEED OF 08S REMAINS SLOWED DUE
TO THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE STORM AND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH HAS NOW MOVED ON TO THE
EAST. TC 08S WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. THE STORM WILL
BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 24 AND WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE, DUE TO
THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THAT THE STORM COULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080101 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.3S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 110.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MELANIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING BY 25 TO 30C.
THEREFORE, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES DECREASED TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
A 312223Z WINDSAT IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AND IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAK-
NESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER SST AND VERY LOW OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
12. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON-
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: melanie.htm
Updated: 1st January 2008 |
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