[Index]
Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080229 19:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 126.2E TO 16.1S 119.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 291830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 128.5E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. LOCAL AREA RADAR AND SURFACE WIND OBSERVAT-
IONS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EVIDENCE FOR A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER LAND. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IN A
REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVE-
CTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF RADIAL OUTFLOW FORMING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND
COULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPON ENCOUNTERING THE
MORE FAVORABLE OVER-WATER CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO WATER AND
AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELO-
PMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080301 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291921Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 123.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.6S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.9S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.1S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.4S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 122.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
400 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 21S
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S
IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 12, BUT THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE STORM TRACKS WESTWARD.
THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF
THE STORM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF
THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INFLUENCES. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 291921Z FEB 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 291930)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080301 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.0S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.5S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 121.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
573 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENER-
ALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IMPROVING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WAR-
NINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080302 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 121.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.8S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.2S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.7S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.5S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 121.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
555 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENER-
ALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IMPROVING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080302 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.0S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.4S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.9S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.5S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 120.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
515 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORE-
CAST REASONING FOR TC 21S REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. TC 21S CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 21S CONTINUES TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A WEAKER
EASTERLY OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED AND IS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS TIME THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY
DUE TO THE OFFSETTING FACTORS OF DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
BUT CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS
THAT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080302 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.0S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.5S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.9S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.8S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 119.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING FOR
TC 21S HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LOWER INTENSITIES
ARE NOW FORECAST FOR THE LATER TAUS. TC 21S CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48. THE STORM WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 21S HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN, BUT
DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL KEEP INTENSIFICATION SLOW THROUGH
TAU 48. AFTER THIS TIME, THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO A
DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS,
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080302 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.4S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.9S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.7S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.4S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.7S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 118.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 21S CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48. THE STORM WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 21S HAS INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN, BUT
DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL KEEP INTENSIFICATION SLOW THROUGH
TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO A
DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS,
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080303 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.7S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.3S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.9S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.8S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.1S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STORM. TC 21S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW STILL REMAIN. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080303 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 117.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 117.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.2S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.9S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.8S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.9S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.5S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM.
THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. THE STORM
WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 21S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER THIS TIME, THE STORM
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080303 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.2S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.0S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.0S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.2S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.0S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 116.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
355 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM.
THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. THE STORM
WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER
THE CENTER OF THE STORM AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, WHICH FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING THAT TOOK
PLACE OVER THE PREVIOUS 06 HOURS. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER THIS
TIME, THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DECREASE IN OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080303 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 115.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 115.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.4S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.4S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.6S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.9S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.5S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 115.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE STORM. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP CONVECTION NOW PERSISTS OVER
THE CENTER OF THE STORM AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER THIS TIME, THE
STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080304 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 114.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 114.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.1S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.3S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.2S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 114.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
300 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM.
THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP CONVECTION NOW PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTER OF THE STORM AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER THIS TIME, THE STORM
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080304 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 113.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 113.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.8S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.4S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.0S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 113.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM THROUGH TAU 36. THEREAFTER,
THE POLEWARD COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION WILL INCREASE AS THE STORM
CONTINUES TRACKING AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE
BASE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE STORM
HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LESS-
THAN-OPTIMAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW ALOFT,
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY PRO-
DUCE A WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 72, THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS SHOULD
REDUCE STORM INTENSITY TO THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS. THE
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS, WHICH ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080304 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.9S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.4S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.9S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 25.7S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 112.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080304 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.6S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.8S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.1S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.4S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 111.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASON-
ING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. THE STORM HAS DECREASED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION.
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STORM FURTHER, RESULTING IN FULL DIS-
SIPATION BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO TAU 48. THE
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS, WHICH ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080305 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 111.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 111.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.0S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.3S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.3S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.3S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING GOOD CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STORM FURTHER, RESULTING IN FULL DISSIPATION BELOW THE 35 KNOT
WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO TAU 48. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL
MODELS, WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z,
052100Z AND 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080305 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.7S 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 110.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.1S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.4S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 109.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S CONTINUES TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. INCREASING NORTH-
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND DECREASING ALONG-
TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE INDUCING SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
FALLS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION BELOW THE 35 KNOT
WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL
MODELS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. WARNING FREQUENCY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO TWELVE-HOURLY. THEREFORE, THE NEXT WARNINGS
WILL BE AVAILABLE AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080305 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 109.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 109.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.2S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.7S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 108.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S CONTINUES TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. INCREASING NORTH-
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND DECREASING ALONG-
TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE INDUCING SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
FALLS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION BELOW THE 35 KNOT
WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 24. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080306 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 23.6S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.0S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.2S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 109.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 21S CONTINUES TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE STORM WILL BEGIN
TRACKING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE AFORE-
MENTIONED TROUGH AFTER TAU 12 AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
AND DISSIPATION OF THE STORM AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080306 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 24.9S 109.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 109.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.8S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.7S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 109.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONT-
INUE AND DISSIPATION OF THE STORM AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLO-
NE IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SY-
STEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TRO-
PICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.
|
Document: ophelia.htm
Updated: 7th March 2008 |
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