Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone CHARLOTTE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]

WTPS21 PGTW 20090111 01:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1S 139.2E TO 16.0S 141.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 102330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S 139.6E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: 
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 137.4E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF 
MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. A 101947Z SSMIS IMAGE, ALONG WITH LAND
BASED ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY, DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEFINED BANDS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 102058Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS
A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS.
SHORE BASED OBSERVING STATIONS AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA SUPPORT A 25-
30 KNOT SYSTEM WITH SLP NEAR 997 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY
TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND THE WHOLE
REGION IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DEEPEN BEFORE CROSSING OVER
LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, BANDING, AND GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED 
BY 120100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090111 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 140.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 140.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 17.2S 141.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 17.8S 141.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 18.2S 141.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 140.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (CHARLOTTE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND
SHOW TC 07P HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
WELL-DEFINED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
102049Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH 40-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON NEARBY SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATION AND AN 110004Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 110051Z JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
PGTW 110100 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090111 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 141.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 141.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 16.8S 141.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 17.3S 142.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 141.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (CHARLOTTE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
EAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND ANIMATED
WEATHER RADAR FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SHOW TC 07P MAINTAINING WELL-
DEFINED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 111605Z
AMSR-E PASS DEPICTS A WELL FORMED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING MAKING LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA.  UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON NEARBY SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//