[Index]
Tropical Cyclone CINDA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone CINDA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 10.3S 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 10.9S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.7S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.5S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 12.9S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 66.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 04S HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH SATELLITE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REACHING 2.5/2.5 (PGTW AND FMEE) AND
2.0/2.0 (KNES). TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTER TAU 24, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS
THE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF MORE EAST-WEST. INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO ONLY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 162121Z DEC 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 162130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND
180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081217 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 66.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 66.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.2S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.9S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 12.6S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 13.0S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 66.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 04S HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
SINCE THE LAST FORECAST WITH INCREASED BANDING FEATURES
WRAPPING INTO A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 200 MB SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK
DATA-T NUMBER FROM PGTW AND KNES SUGGESTING A 35 KNOT SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO A 17/0914Z
TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NOTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE 700 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS STEERING RIDGE WILL FLATEN OUT AFTER TAU 36 AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL ELEVATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AS SUCH THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN LEVELED VICE
A SLOW INTENSIFICATION REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081218 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 11.3S 67.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 67.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 12.1S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 12.7S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.3S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 67.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 67.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 67.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.0S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.0S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.9S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.8S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED ITS TRACK
SPEED AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE. IN THE SHORT TERM A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK IS
EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OF TC
04S, IT WILL INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD ORIENTATION TO THE TRACK.
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SUPPORTING MECHANISMS FOR THE
SYSTEM. OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN POSITIVE, WITH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAVING
ONLY MARGINAL VALUES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODERATE.
THE DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT DIVERGE BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 65.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.5S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.0S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.5S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 65.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 04S IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING 190038Z AMSU-B AND
190040Z SSMIS PASSES, INDICATE THAT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST, PARTIALLY
EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT WESTWARD TURN RESULTING FROM A REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL OFFSET
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, RESULTING IN SLOW
WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S
(BILLY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.2S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.0S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 64.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 04S HAS STARTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST BUT
WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
COUNTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE BUT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE LATER TAUS LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM. THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL OFFSET
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, RESULTING IN SLOW
WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S
(BILLY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 63.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.0S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.0S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.5S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 63.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALOFT.
HOWEVER, TC 04S HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 12
HOURS DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS SEEN ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS TRACKING
ON THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF A COL. MODERATE VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WILL OFFSET THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
RESULTING IN SLOW WEAKENING. BEYOND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS VWS WEAKENS AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS RECEDE TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 62.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.6S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.3S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.7S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF A COL.
THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STORM. THIS MODERATE VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION AS THE STORM
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS RECEDE
TO THE EAST ALLOWING CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SUSTAINED OVER THE
LLCC. AS A RESULT, THE STORM WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A PERIOD OF SLIGHT
REINSTENSIFICATION IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210300Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20081221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CINDA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 61.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 61.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.4S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 61.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 04S WILL SOON ENTER A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN ZONALLY-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST
AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FORWARD TRACK MOTION WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY
IN RESPONSE. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
TO THE NORTHEAST HAVE INDUCED FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM TC
04S. HOWEVER, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW
HAS ALSO PREVENTED DEEP CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, DRIVING STEADY WEAKENING. PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THIS WEAKENING TREND OVER
THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SLOW TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL
KEEP THE REMNANTS OF TC 04S OVER WARM TROPICAL WATER, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: cinda.htm
Updated: 22nd December 2008 |
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