[Index]
Tropical Cyclone DONGO
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone DONGO [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20090108 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 70.9E TO 19.1S 67.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 081400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 70.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S
69.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081226Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEFINED
LLCC AND MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. PREVIOUS SHIP REPORTS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORT
A 25-30 KNOT SYSTEM WITH SLP NEAR 1002 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
HINDERED BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO LOWER VWS WITHIN 12-24
HOURS AND SHOULD ALSO TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
TO ITS SOUTH, RESULTING IN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN TO 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, TIGHT BANDING, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
EXPECTED TRACK INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090109 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081451Z JAN 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.6S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.5S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.6S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.4S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 67.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DONGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT
OBSCURING WELL-DEFINED AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A
09/0844Z PARTIAL AMSR-E IMAGE AND A 09/0856Z AMSU IMAGE BOTH REFLECT
THE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND BETTER
DEFINED LLCC. A 09/0505Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION
WITH MULTIPLE 30-KNOT WIND VECTORS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS
QUICKLY IMPROVED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD WITH DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO STRONG
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-35
KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WINDS, HOWEVER, TC 06S
SHOULD INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY INTENSIFICATION RATE UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 081451Z JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090110 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 67.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 67.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.7S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.8S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.9S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 67.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DONGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC PARTIALLY
OBSCURING WELL-DEFINED AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A
09/2222Z TRMM IMAGE REFLECTS THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND WELL
DEFINED LLCC. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT
35-40 KNOTS BASED ON A 09/1328 WINDSAT PASS SHOWING NUMEROUS 35-40
KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS AND AN INCREASED RATE OF DEVELOPMENT AS
SEEN IN DVORAK FIXES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS TO
THE EAST 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY
INTENSIFICATION RATE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND
110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090110 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.0S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.7S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.7S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.0S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 67.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DONGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT CENTRAL
WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM FMEE AND PGTW.
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
100926Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 06S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTRO-
PICAL JET STREAM. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE STEERED EASTWARD AND TRACK
SPEED WILL INCREASE. THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY AND TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090111 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.2S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.8S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.2S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 68.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S
(DONGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL FORMED
CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED
IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM FMEE AND PGTW. CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 102350Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, TC 06S
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND
120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090111 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 23.2S 69.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 69.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.3S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.4S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.1S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 69.6E.
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED 12-HOUR
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS SHRINKING CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS
WITH WARMING TOPS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH TRANSVERSE BANDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK INDICATING INTRUSION OF
VERY STRONG WINDS. THE CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM FMEE AND PGTW. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE. TC 07S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SPED UP IN ITS FORWARD MOTION
AND BEGUN TO DETERIORATE WITH THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT
AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE, RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090112 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.6S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 31.8S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 70.2E.
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, TC 06S
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
12-HOUR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS REDUCED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 112211Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS
THE REMNANTS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES
FROM FMEE AND PGTW AND A 111652Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON POLAR ORBITER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 06S IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HAS
INCREASED IN SPEED AND HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE, RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090112 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 28.9S 70.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 70.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.9S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 70.6E.
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 905 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, TC 06S
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
12-HOUR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANT CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY
DETACHED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DRIFTED TO
THE EAST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE LLCC IS NOW ABSORBED IN
THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS RAPIDLY GETTING DEFORMED. TC
06S HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 13 FEET.//
|
Document: dongo.htm
Updated: 13th January 2009 |
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