[Index]
Tropical Cyclone HAMISH March 2009
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone HAMISH March 2009 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20090305 09:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 147.1E TO 17.4S 147.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 050900Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CEN-
TER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 147.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
147.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 147.2E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 050719Z SSMI/S IMAGE SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC
WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM SST AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 060930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090305 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN/050921Z MAR 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.7S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.9S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.4S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.9S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 146.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 050952Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAP-
PING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 050815Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATED A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF (110 NM
SOUTH) INDICATE EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 25-30 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIR-
ONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST > 28C AND DEEP
MOISTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE CENTER WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 18P HAS
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 (PGTW) TO 45 KNOTS (ABRF). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND THE PGTW ESTIMATE BUT THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 35-40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE POLEWARD-ORIENTED LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST.
TC 18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 20 KNOT PER DAY RATE UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 050921Z MAR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 050930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090306 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.1S 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.3S 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.6S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.0S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 147.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052302Z
AMSUB IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 052301Z ASCAT IMAGE
CONFIRMS THE LLCC WITH 50 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
OBSERVATIONS FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF (100 NM SOUTH) INDICATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD AND IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF
ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY, MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM SST > 28C AND DEEP MOISTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, REACHING A MAX OF 90 KNOTS
NEAR TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, A COMBINATION OF INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LAND
INTERACTION AS THE STORM NEARS THE COASTLINE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING
THE STORM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND
070300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090306 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 147.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 147.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.9S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.3S 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.6S 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.0S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 147.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A 25 NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE EVIDENT ON
THE CAIRNS RADAR IMAGERY. TC 18P PASSED ABOUT 10 NM EAST OF BOUGAIN-
VILLE REEF NEAR 05/12Z WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REPORTED
AT 53 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 979.0 MB. TC 18P HAS CONTINUED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A 50 KNOT INCREASE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND ABRF. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST > 28C AND DEEP MOISTURE. TC 18P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK.
TC 18P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 BUT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AT TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090307 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 04
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.8S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.1S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.7S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.1S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 148.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS ORGANIZATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS HAVING
A CLOUD FILLED EYE. BASED ON RADAR, THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED IN
SIZE TO 15 NM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE EVIDENT ON THE BOWEN RADAR
IMAGERY. TC 18P PASSED OVER HOLMES REEF NEAR 05/20Z WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REPORTED AT 77 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 960.9
MB. TC 18P HAS MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS REPORTED AT HOLMES REEF
AND FLINDERS REEF. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST > 28C AND DEEP MOISTURE. TC 18P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK. TC 18P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AT TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090307 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 149.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 149.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.1S 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.7S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.4S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.8S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 149.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF, INDICATING AT THE WEAKEST
A 130 KNOT SYSTEM. THE TC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER
RIDGING TO THE EAST WHILE WEAKENING. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTION WILL INITIATE THIS WEAKENING. GREATER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED NEARER TO TAU 24, AND THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EVEN CLOSER TO LAND AND A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080308 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 06
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.6S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.3S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.6S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.6S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN TC 18P HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRONG
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM
MACKAY, AUSTRALIA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18P HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TC 16S WILL NOT
MAKE LANDFALL, HOWEVER THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL BEGIN TO
ADVERSELY AFFECT THE INTENSITY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 24 HELPING WEAKEN THE TC MORE RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090308 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 21.1S 151.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 151.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.5S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.0S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.2S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.9S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 151.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. HAMISH REMAINS A VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS CONFIRMED BY DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND ABRF RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN MOVE INCREASINGLY SEAWARD. DEEP LAYER
RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM; ALTHOUGH, IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED,
LOW TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARDS LAND.
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET, WILL PROMOTE THIS WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND
091500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 22.1S 152.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 152.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.4S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.7S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.5S 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.0S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 153.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18P HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
ABRF AGREE WITH A 102 KNOT SYSTEM. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ENLARGING EYE WITH EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TRACK
IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD AS TC 18P MOVES AROUND THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TC 18P. INCREASED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT TC 18P WILL REMAIN FAIRLY INTENSE THROUGH TAU
48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST
ADVERSELY AFFECTING THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090309 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 23.3S 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.3S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.0S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.3S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.7S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE TC REMAINS VERY INTENSE AS CONFIRMED
BY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO ADVERSELY EFFECT THE SYSTEM AND
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AS
THE STORM WEAKENS IT WILL SLOW AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
TRANSFERS FROM THE DEEP LAYER RIGDING TO THE EAST, TO THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OF THE AVAILABLE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, TCLAPS DEPICTS THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR VERY
RAPIDLY AND WBAR DOES NOT AT ALL. THE OTHER MEMBERS ERRONEOUSLY
DRIVE THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD INTO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE TCLAPS SOLUTION BUT AT A MORE GRADUAL
RATE OF TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 154.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 154.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.8S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.7S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.3S 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.8S 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
DEPICTS A VERY INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY LOCATED
ON THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. POSITION CONFIDENCE
IS GOOD AND IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY,
A 092318Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE AND EXCELLENT RADAR DATA WHICH
CLEARLY DEPICT THE LOCATION OF THE STORM. THE TC REMAINS VERY
INTENSE AS CONFIRMED BY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND ABRF, AND ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS BEGINNING TO WANE AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ADVERSELY AFFECTS THE SYSTEM, THE STORM
WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
GENERALLY EASTWARD, WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE WEST. AS THIS WEAKENING OCCURS, THE STORM WILL SLOW AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSFERS FROM THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO
THE EAST, TO THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
CAUSING THE STORM TO ENTER INTO A SLOW LOOP BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDES
WHICH, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF, FAVOR THE LOOPING SCENARIO AND
DIFFER ONLY IN THE TIMING OF THE SLOW TURN BACK TOWARDS LAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090310 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 156.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 156.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.9S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.3S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.6S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.9S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 156.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE AND RECENT MICRO-
WAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DE-COUPLE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS NOW LOCATED
ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. BASED ON A
10/1129Z TMI 37 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS STILL
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION
ARE BASED ON THIS IMAGE AS WELL AS A PREVIOUS WINDSAT IMAGE AT
10/0727Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANG-
ING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND TURNED EASTWARD
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT ON THE 10/00Z 700 MB ANALYSIS. TC 18P
SHOULD ACCELERATE GRADUALLY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND THE
SYSTEM COMPLETELY DE-COUPLES FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 18P IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS AUSTRALIA, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. THE
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS NOW SUPPORT (GFS, ECMWF, GFDN, UKMO,
AND JGSM) THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND WBAR
WHICH DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD, RESPECTIVELY,
AGAINST THE STEERING FLOW. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPAT-
ING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36 BUT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A
35-45 KNOT EXPOSED LLCC TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090311 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 24.2S 155.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 155.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.6S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.9S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.2S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.5S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 155.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
TRACKING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS SHEARED TO
THE EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION ARE BASED UPON THE
ANIMATED IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 102022Z QSCAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS
AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED QSCAT IMAGE. AFTER REVERSING DIRECTION
NEAR 10/12Z THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT
ON THE 10/12Z 700 MB ANALYSIS. TC 18P WILL MAINTAIN SLOW FORWARD
TRACK SPEED AS IT BATTLES COMPETING STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ORIGINATING FROM A WEAKER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 18P
WILL WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR TAU 48 WHILE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
UPON THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC AIDS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NGPS AND
WBAR) WHICH DEPICT THE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION AND CONTINUED WEAKENING
TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090311 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 154.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 154.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.3S 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.4S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.7S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 154.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DE-
PICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, STRONG LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. AN 110722Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE AS
WELL AS SHIP OBSERVATIONS, WITHIN 110NM OF THE CENTER, CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 40-45 KNOT SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS MAIN-
TAINED AT 45 KNOTS DESPITE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25-35
KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION
BASED ON THE EXPOSED CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EVIDENT IN THE 11/00Z 850 AND
700MB ANALYSES. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AND TO DISSIPATE OVER
WATER AFTER TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THIS FORECAST. TRACK SPEEDS WERE INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE RECENT ACCELERATION AND EVIDENCE
OF A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND
121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (JONI) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 152.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 152.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.4S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.9S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 152.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DE-
PICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. AN 111956Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION
WITH LAND WILL QUICKLY CAUSE THE LLCC TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AT 20-25 KNOTS. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND
THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TC 18P IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P
(JONI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: hamish.htm
Updated: 12th March 2009 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |