[Index]
Tropical Cyclone JADE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone JADE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20090404 00:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 57.6E TO 12.9S 53.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
57.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 031841Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. 24 HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS IN THE AREA INDICATE A 2MB
DROP. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IS
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY
STEERING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050030Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090404 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 12.0S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 12.9S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.8S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.5S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 56.3E.
TC 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
O6 HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM JTWC OF 2.5 INDICATES AT LEAST A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. A 040237Z
QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO REFLECTED A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A
040207Z SSMI PASS REFLECTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC TOWARD THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS HAS THE LLCC ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TC 26S TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING AROUND TAU 48. TC 26S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 040021Z APR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090404 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 55.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 55.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.3S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.3S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.2S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.1S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 55.1E.
TC 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
O6 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BANDING, YET ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED AND WARRANTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. NONETHELESS A
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BUILDING
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). VWS
SHOULD THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THIS ANTI-
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD. DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVERHEAD WILL
ALSO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL
TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWEST-
WARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER NORTHEASTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AS WELL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090405 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.3S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.9S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.6S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 52.5E.
TC 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 26S TURNED WESTWARD AND HAS
INCREASED SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A RECENT
050227Z WINDSAT PASS REFLECTS MULTIPLE DEEP BANDS OF CONVECTION
SPIRALING INTO A RING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER A BUILDING MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TC 26S THROUGH LANDFALL. TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR WILL LEAD TO QUICK DISSIPATION THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090405 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.2S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.6S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.5S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP ABOUT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TC 26S
TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND HAS SLOWED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A RECENT 051459Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE IN THE 37GHZ MICROWAVE BAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TC 26S IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR WILL LEAD TO QUICK DISSIPATION THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z AND 062100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090406 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.7S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.7S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.9S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.1S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 49.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JADE HAS MOVED OVER COASTAL
MADAGASCAR AND IS BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 48 WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT JADE IS LOCATED UNDER
THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 26S IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090406 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 48.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 061638Z SSMI/S IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK FURTHER IN-LAND OVER ROUGH TERRAIN AND WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE HAS REMAINED INTACT WITH A FAIRLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULAT-
ION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AND 06/12Z OBSERVATIONS FROM FMMS SHOWING 27-31 KNOT
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
24 BUT QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH THE UK MET OFFICE AND GFS MODELS
INDICATING A SHARP RE-CURVATURE AND AN UNLIKELY INTENSIFICATION
TREND. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR INDICATE A MORE REALISTIC WEAKENING
TREND AND CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER LAND. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK BACK OVER WATER BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 35 KNOT INTENSITY. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z
IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090407 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 49.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.5S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.6S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.5S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.6S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 49.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WATER AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
BUILD NEAR THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE REFLECT A 30 TO 35 KNOT
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR WHILE MAKING MODEST INTENSITY GAINS IN WARM WATERS AND
UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS. AFTER TAU 24 EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090408 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 49.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 49.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.5S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.3S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.2S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.9S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 48.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. SYSTEM
INTENSITY IS LIMITED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND, WITH CONVECTION WEAK
AND FLARING ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 26S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
TAU 48 AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEGIN TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.
TC 26S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RESULTING IN A
WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090408 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.9S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.8S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.7S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 26.2S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 49.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS
DESPITE MADAGASCAR'S CONTINUED DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND FMEE RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD
SUSTAIN A 4O TO 45 KNOT CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD ALONG THE MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. VWS WILL ALSO HEIGHTEN AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH TO THE EAST, AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW SUSTAINABLE LEVELS NEAR
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090409 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.5S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.5S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 26.4S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.0S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 50.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS WEAKENED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS
BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. AN ANTICYCLONE
SOUTH OF THE TC IS BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION. THE
DYNAMICAL AIDS ALMOST UNIFORMLY PREDICT A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA AFTER TAU 36. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER EQUATORWARD, BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE,
AND ULTIMATELY CAPTURE TC 26S. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW
THE 35-KT THRESHOLD NEAR TAU 24, BUT WILL BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY
NEAR TAU 48, AS THE THE TC BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL.
THE STRONG VORTICITY FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORTS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AND REINTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. THIS
REPRESENTS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE POSSIBILITY
STILL EXISTS THAT TC 26S MIGHT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN
ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, THE MODELS AND SYNOPTIC
EVIDENCE SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090409 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 22.6S 50.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 50.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.4S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.5S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.7S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 50.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S REMAINS WEAK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO
THE EAST, HOWEVER, A SMALL REGION OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ACTIVELY FIRING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND HAS EXPANDED
OUTWARD. THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE TC CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY
SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION. THE DYNAMICAL AIDS INDICATE A DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA AROUND TAU 24. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER EQUATORWARD,
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND ULTIMATELY CAPTURE TC 26S. TC 26S IS
EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY NEAR TAU 36, AS JADE BEGINS AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSISTION. THE STRONG VORTICITY FORECAST WITH THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND REINTENSIFICATION
SCENARIO. THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS THAT TC 26S MIGHT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS AND SYNOPTIC EVIDENCE SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND
101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090409 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 23.0S 50.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 50.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.7S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.8S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.0S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 30.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 50.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH IS PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM PROGRESSING MORE RAPIDLY
POLEWARD. PERSISTENT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE SYSTEM, CONFINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS DRIVEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND A CONSEQUENT
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS
EQUATORWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 24, THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TC 26S POLEWARD AND INFLUENCE
STORM STRUCTURE, INITIATING THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCLERATE RAPIDLY POLEWARD AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 24, INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE
TRANSITION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT. TC
26S WARNINGS WILL NOW BE ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090410 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 51.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 51.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.1S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.7S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONFINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE LLCC. DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TC 26S HAS
MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 26S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH AROUND TAU 24. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL ENABLE TC 26S TO STRENGTHEN AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090410 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 23.9S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.5S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.4S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 32.4S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 51.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS TAKEN A MORE SOUTHWARD TURN OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF JADE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, BUT DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND BE SHEARED EASTWARD. STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ABOVE THE LLCC IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO
TRANSITION TC 26S INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH FULL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING AROUND TAU 36. THE CYCLONE WILL
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND TAU 12.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ENABLE TC 26S
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090410 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 24.9S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.2S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS SEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TRACK
SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF JADE HAS BEEN QUICKLY TRACKING EASTWARD AND DIGGING
EQUATORWARD. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 26S IS THE LIKELY REASONING
FOR THIS INCREASE IN SPEED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WHICH HAS DECOUPLED
CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC
HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED BUT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. AS THE
LLCC BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC WILL INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
BY TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS HELPING TO EXPEDITE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090410 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JADE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.1S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.6S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JADE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 26S HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, INCREASING IN SPEED, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND ALSO TO INTENSIFY AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 12. A 101325Z AMSU-A VERTICAL CROSS
SECTION INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM RETAINS A WARM CORE
STRUCTURE, THE STRONGEST ANOMALY HAS LOWERED IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO
NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WARM ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101800Z IS 15 FEET.//
|
Document: jade.htm
Updated: 11th April 2009 |
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