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Tropical Cyclone JASPER
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
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Tropical Cyclone JASPER [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20090323 22:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6S 157.6E TO 19.1S 160.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.8S 158.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
152.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 158.0E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE
CENTER OF A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 231938Z SSMI IMAGE AND A 231939Z QUIKSCAT PASS.
THIS DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW SUSTAINED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE BY PERIPHERAL
FLOW AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON RAPIDLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090324 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 159.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 159.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.2S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.3S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.9S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.3S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 159.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND 3.0 FROM ABRF AND CONSOLIDATING
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT TC 23P HAS FORMED. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A SECOND SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL INDUCE A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE,
SLOWING FORWARD TRACK MOTION AND TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD
AFTER TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR AND GFDN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
DEPICTIONS OF THE EXACT TRACK VARY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DUAL-CHANNEL
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 24
SHOULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOWER RATE. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 232151Z MAR 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 232200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND
250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090324 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.2S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.6S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.9S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 23.7S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 161.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE DEEP COLD DENSE OVERCAST MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 240640 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND NUMEROUS
SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF TC 23P WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW
AND NFFN AT 3.0 AND 3.5, RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED FASTER
TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT HAS RAPIDLY BUILT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS OVER THE SYSTEM, AS
EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
TEMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090325 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 163.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 163.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.7S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.5S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.9S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 163.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OBSERVATION OF AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT AGENCY DVORAK T-
NUMBERS RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 3.0. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TC 23P
HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED NEARLY ALL DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. THE STEERING LEVEL FOR THE STORM HAS LOWERED AS A CONSEQUENCE
OF THIS SHEAR AND A RESULTANT ONGOING WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE,
THE STORM IS NOW EXPECTED TO FOLLOW STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO STEER THE LLCC EQUATORWARD BY TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, SUPPORTS THIS
GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO. AS THE STORM TURNS EQUATORWARD, PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090325 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (JASPER) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.9S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 163.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM HAS COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND COOL AIR ENTRAINMENT AT THE LOW LEVELS.
THE CURRENT LLCC POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND WAS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBER OF
1.5 FROM NFFN. TC 23P IS NOW BEING STEERED NORTH BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 12 FEET.//
|
Document: jasper.htm
Updated: 26th March 2009 |
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