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Tropical Cyclone ABELA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone ABELA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS31 PGTW 20160716 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 8.9S 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.5S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.4S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.4S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.4S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.8S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 69.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLES, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. A 160421Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC
WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 01S IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 160509Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE
CIRCULATION, WITH A CORE OF 35 KNOT WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG (30
TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 01S IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
AFTER 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72, AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BECOMES CUT-OFF
AND VWS VALUES REMAIN HIGH. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 151600).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160716 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.9S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.8S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.6S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.4S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.4S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) GIVING FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AN EDGE OF SWATH 161657Z METOP-
B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING SEVERAL 40 KNOT WIND BARBS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
PRESENT, HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS, AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN, MODERATE OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
SUPPORTIVE NEAR 27 CELSIUS. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK INTO COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF
HIGHER VWS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160717 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 11.3S 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 65.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.6S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.7S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.7S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.6S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.5S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS
IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH
MULTIPLE UNFLAGGED 40 KNOT WIND BARBS EVIDENT IN A 170610Z RAPIDSCAT
PASS. TC 01S CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THIS GENERAL TRACK PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG WESTWARD AND POLWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND PASSAGE
OVER WARM WATER (ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS). HOWEVER, PERSISTENT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INTENSIFICATION. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER AFTER TAU 24 AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS,
RESULTING IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON
CHANGES IN NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATED
ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST LIES WITHIN A FAIRLY WELL-PACKED GROUPING OF NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACKERS, NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160717 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.8S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.1S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.2S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.9S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 557 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM OF WEAK BANDING AND
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 171436Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE CONFIRMS
THE EXTENT OF THE BANDING CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW WITH A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, BOTH
REPORTING T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED
AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS OVER THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, ANIMATED TPW
INDICATES TC 01S IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED FROM THE BULK
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 26 CELSIUS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUGGEST THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
UNLIKELY. TC 01S IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID TO LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE INTO COOLER WATERS AND HIGHER WIND SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160718 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 60.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 60.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.3S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.4S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.0S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE AND CLEAR ASSOCIATED CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 01S HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AIDED BY A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
STEADILY AS IT MOVES ACROSS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND CONTENDS
WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD IN THE NEAR-TERM BASED ON RECENT STORM MOTION AND THE
ANTICIPATED ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160718 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 58.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 58.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.6S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.6S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.2S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 57.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE THE LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION A
181753Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION, AND A
BAND OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED
FAVORABLE WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. COOLER WATERS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN TC 01S IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
BY TAU 36 TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING POLEWARD, ROUNDING
THE STEERING RIDGE INTO HIGHER VWS FROM INTERACTION WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT YIELDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160719 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.2S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.1S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 54.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS
THE WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION IS DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE ROBUST OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR
12 MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING VWS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160719 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 53.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 53.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.5S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND 191538Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191734Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT TC 01S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, SO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 30 KTS. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD, STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191800Z IS 14 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_abela.htm | Updated: 27 July 2016 |