Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone BLANCHE Southern Hemisphere Summary

WTXS21 PGTW 20170305 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 130.2E TO 14.4S 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. RADAR DATA
AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
12.0S 130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6S 131.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 130E, APPROXIMATELY 55
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 042155Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 C). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO 10-
15 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO DEEPEN OVER THE
LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, STEADILY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170305 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151MAR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 128.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 128.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 14.4S 127.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 15.7S 126.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 128.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BLANCHE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM WYNDHAM WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM ADRM. TC 10S IS IN THE GULF OF
JOSEPH BONAPARTE AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF WYNDHAM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS THEN RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE BUT IS UNANIMOUS IN THE LANDFALL TRACK. OVERALL,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 050200).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170306 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 128.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 128.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 15.2S 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.2S 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 16.7S 125.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 16.7S 123.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 16.6S 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 17.0S 119.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 18.1S 117.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 128.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT AND SYMMETRIC REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION
COLLOCATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FROM THE WYNDHAM RADAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN AT
T3.0, BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS BASED
ON THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC BLANCHE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-
EMERGENCE OVER THE WATER BEYOND TAU 48 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
INTENSIFIES TO THE SOUTH AND DEFLECTS THE TRACK OF TC BLANCHE TOWARD
THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
OF WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 24 HOURS, THEREBY WARRANTING A
CONTINUATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, BUT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF TC BLANCHE
BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170306 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 127.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 127.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 17.1S 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 126.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)10S (BLANCHE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLLAPSED AND
DECAYED AFTER IT MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA NEAR
WYNDHAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//