[Index]
Tropical Cyclone CARLOS
Southern Hemisphere Summary
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone CARLOS Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20170203 13:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 55.3E TO 17.1S 56.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031230Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 55.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 55.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED BANDING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170204 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 56.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 56.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.7S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.0S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.3S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.1S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.0S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.3S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 56.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AROUND A
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE 040605Z ASCAT PASS AND AGENCY FIXES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW REFLECTION OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM FURTHER DEEPENS,
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY ASSUME STEERING
AND DEFLECT TC 04S SOUTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS,
IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS), WILL
STOKE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO 65 KNOTS BY END
OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED AND TIMING OF
RECURVATURE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 031300).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170205 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.4S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.8S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.2S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.9S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.9S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.3S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.5S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.9S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 56.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES. A
042229Z 85 GHZ SSMI IMAGE SHOWS RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T3.0 (30 TO 45 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SSTS VALUES NEAR
28 TO 29 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 04S IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
GUIDED BY A WEAK RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 48 A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD IN GUIDING THE SYSTEM ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SUPPORTING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BUT DIFFERS IN
THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVERALL
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND
060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170205 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 57.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 57.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.8S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.5S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.3S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.3S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.8S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.2S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.4S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT FURTHER
CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED, ALBEIT REMAINING COMPACT WITH CENTRAL
CONVECTION SPANNING APPROXIMATELY 80 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 051102Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T3.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING COL WITH THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM FURTHER
DEEPENS, THE STR WILL SLOWLY ASSUME STEERING
AND DEFLECT TC 04S SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL ROUND THE
STR AND RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS,
IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS 28-30 CELSIUS),
WILL PROMOTE STEADY DEVELOPMENT. TC CARLOS WILL PEAK AT 80 KNOTS NEAR
TAU 96 AIDED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO INITIAL EXPOSURE TO
THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SERPENTINE FORECAST TRACK
WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED AND TIMING OF THE SWITCH IN STEERING AND
EVENTUAL RECURVATURE. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170206 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 57.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.6S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.4S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.5S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.7S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.3S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.5S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 28.0S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 57.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND COMPACT SYSTEM
WITH DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER ENVELOPE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SSTS (28 TO 29 CELSIUS). TC 04S
HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS BUILDING
WHICH WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE SUPPORTING
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST WILL ENHANCE OUTFLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE RESULTING IN A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR TC 04S. THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WIND SHEAR VALUES WHICH WILL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 96 AND 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE STILL EXISTS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE STEERING SHIFTS,
LENDING OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.0S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.1S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.3S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.8S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.4S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.3S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 57.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING AN
OVERALL COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME SHEARED FROM THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
NOW UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, IT IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE STR AND
RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS 28-30
CELSIUS), WILL PROMOTE MODERATE DEVELOPMENT. TC CARLOS WILL PEAK AT
80 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72, AIDED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO
INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG VWS WILL OFFSET THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
CAUSE JUST MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION, OR WORSE, PREMATURE DISSIPATION.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SERPENTINE FORECAST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED AND TIMING OF
THE RECURVATURE. IN VIEW OF THIS, IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE PREMATURE
WEAKENING THAT CAN AFFECT STORM MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 19.0S 56.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 56.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.4S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.5S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.1S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.7S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.8S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 56.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING STRUCTURE AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHWESTWARD, IN-PHASE WITH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM
ALIGNING VERTICALLY. A COMPARISON OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS WEAKENING UNDER THE POOR
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SUPPORTS THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO
45 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EIR LOOP AND A 070008Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS, DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF TC CARLOS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT WEAKENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST, REDUCING THE VWS IMPACTS, ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS AT THE STEERING STR AXIS NEAR TAU 48.
AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ENTER A
WEAKENING PHASE ONCE AGAIN. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A
RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING FORWARD MOVEMENT WITH A
TURN TO THE WEST EXPECTED. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK; HOWEVER, THEY DEPICT VARYING
DEGREES DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN LIEU OF THIS,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND
080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170207 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.2S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.2S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.2S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.1S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.5S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.6S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.9S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 59 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAPIDLY PULSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071108Z NOAA-19
COMPOSITE IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING AND
A DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER-LOW POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC PRODUCING PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH
IS CLEARLY HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA
REUNION INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 31
KNOTS. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST, REDUCING THE VWS IMPACTS, ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE
SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS AT THE STEERING STR
AXIS NEAR TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ENTER
A WEAKENING PHASE ONCE AGAIN. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A
RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING FORWARD MOVEMENT WITH A
TURN TO THE WEST EXPECTED. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK; HOWEVER, THEY DEPICT VARYING
DEGREES DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT THEREFORE THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170208 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.2S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.4S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.3S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.6S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.0S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 29.8S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE, AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MADAGASCAR PRODUCING CONVERGENT WINDS
OVER THE CYCLONE. A 072355Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE 37GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS LESS ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. THEREFORE, THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CLUSTER OF
SATELLITE FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE. TC CARLOS IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TC 04S TO INTENSIFY UNDER A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AIDED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BEYOND TAU 48, THE VWS WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE INTERACTION
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH, BEGINNING A DECREASING TREND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE TRACK,
DECREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
SCENARIO BUT GREATLY SPREAD AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS AND TURNS TO THE
WEST. DUE TO THESE FACTORS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170208 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.7S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.9S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.1S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.4S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.6S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.3S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.8S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAPIDLY PULSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081227Z SSMIS 37GHZ
COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVING OVERALL
OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON THE COMPACT STRUCTURE AND
RECENT ASCAT DATA. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 04S SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH, STRENGTHENS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A
RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING FORWARD MOTION WITH A
TURN TO THE WEST EXPECTED AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE TRACK; HOWEVER, THEY DEPICT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST TRACK
DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170209 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 23.6S 53.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 53.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.8S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.0S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.5S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.1S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 30.3S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.9S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 31.4S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A 082343Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION WITH A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE
BEGINNING TO FORM LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0 (45 TO 65 KNOTS) IN COMPARISON
TO A 081758Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL 50
KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE SHOWING IMPROVEMENT WITH
NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM AND SSTS VALUES REMAIN WARM NEAR
28 TO 29 CELSIUS. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AIDING
OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 36 THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY TC 04S IS TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY
TAU 72 THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTH ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO TAKE HOLD
SHIFTING THE TRACK AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO
DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE COMPLEX
STEERING SHIFTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170209 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 24.5S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.9S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.5S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 28.9S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.8S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.3S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.7S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE WITH SLIGHT ELONGATION AS IT EMBEDDED DEEPER INTO THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 091137Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND TRENDS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THE VWS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A LOW REFLECTION
OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING. TC CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL
GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
96 OR SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 48, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170210 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 26.4S 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.1S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.3S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.2S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 30.5S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.8S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 31.1S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 57.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM SOUTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT IS STILL RELATIVELY COMPACT BUT
SHOWING SIGNS OF WESTERLY WIND SHEAR HAVING AN AFFECT ON OUTFLOW. A
092331Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS). TC 04S IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE IN LATER TAUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST IS ENCROACHING ON THE SYSTEM DISRUPTING OUTFLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, HOWEVER A MODERATE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL STILL
EXISTS. THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WIND SHEAR OVER TC 04S WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. TC
04S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY TAU 36 ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO GENTLY GUIDE THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 BUT DIVERGES
THEREAFTER AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES COMPLEX AS THE SYSTEM
IS SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKENING. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170210 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 28.1S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.6S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.6S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.1S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 60.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
SHALLOW AND ELONGATED AS IT EMBEDDED DEEPER INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 101120Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN
AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ERODE
THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170211 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 29.1S 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 62.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.2S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 30.9S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 31.7S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 63.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE BULK OF REMAINING CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING, THE LLCC IS STILL WELL
ORGANIZED WITH A DEFINITE SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS. BASED ON THIS
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IN A 102318Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. TC CARLOS IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD IN A POOR
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSETTING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
RAPIDLY DECREASING AS THE CYCLONE GAINS LATITUDE. THESE FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE; WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO DISSIPATION AS A
PASSING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH PREVENTS FORWARD MOVEMENT IN 24 DEGREE
CELSIUS WATERS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT DRASTICALLY SPREADS AFTERWARDS AS THE
VORTICITY SIGNATURE DETERIORATES. DUE TO THE LIMITED LIFESPAN OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE GOOD INITIAL MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170211 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 30.5S 65.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5S 65.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.2S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 30.7S 65.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 756 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON ITS LOCATION UNDER THE 200MB
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND A 500MB TROUGH, SST NEAR 25C, MODERATE
BAROCLINICITY AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
STRUCTURE. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY STILL CONFIRMS EXTENSIVE 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS, THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS.
TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS IT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_carlos.htm | Updated: 17 February 2017 |