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Tropical Cyclone COOK Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20170407 05:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0S 172.1E TO 15.9S 170.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 172.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 171.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 172.0E, APPROXIMATELY
455 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 070311Z SSMI 37GHZ DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION
AND FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, LIGHT
(10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS
THIS SYSTEM IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080530Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170408 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 168.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 168.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.0S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.9S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.8S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.9S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.8S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.9S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 168.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 172256Z GMI IMAGE WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2221Z
PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-A IMAGE SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 16P IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C) UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF TWO RIDGES,
ONE TO THE EAST AND ONE TO THE WEST. THESE TWO RIDGES WILL STEER THE
STORM GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH ALONG AN S-CURVE SHAPED TRACK. THESE
RIDGES WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS RESULTING IN LIKELY NEAR-TERM
RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETING BY TAU 120. THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 070530).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170408 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.3S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.2S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.3S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.6S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.6S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.7S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081052Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM.
THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITIES OF T3.0 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM ALL FIX AGENCIES, AND
SATCON/ADT VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SSTS OF 30C, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES NEAR 65. TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 48 CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. TC COOK WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES
THE STR RIDGE AXIS WHERE VWS REMAINS LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
MAXIMIZED. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 48 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER NEW CALEDONIA. BEYOND TAU
48, TC 16P WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND
STRONGER VWS, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. TC COOK IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
FULL EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER THE SPREAD IN THE TRACKERS
INCREASE TO 350 NM BY TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170409 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.5S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.8S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.4S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.8S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.4S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.8S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 082200Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS AN IMPROVING SYSTEM
WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON BOTH
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0
(55 TO 65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND SSTS
NEAR 29 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC COOK IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH
GUIDING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
DURING THIS TIME THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALLOWING TC
COOK TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. TC COOK IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK DIRECTLY OVER NEW CALEDONIA AROUND TAU 36, AT THE SAME TIME A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEAKENING THE STEERING
RIDGE SHIFTING THE SYSTEM TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 36 AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. TC COOK WILL TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170409 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 166.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 166.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.8S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.2S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.8S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.4S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 166.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST 12-HOURS. A 090926Z GPM 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE, ALSO SIGNALING
INTENSIFICATION, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY
DVORAKS RANGING FROM T3.5-4.5 (55 TO 77 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
WARM (29C) SSTS. TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. TC COOK WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE STR RIDGE AXIS WHERE VWS REMAINS LOW
AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAXIMIZED. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 24 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER NEW
CALEDONIA. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 16P WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND STRONGER VWS, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. TC COOK IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE FULL EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72, AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH INTERACTION, LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170410 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 165.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 165.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.3S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.2S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.9S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.4S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.5S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 165.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
092246Z GMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND A 092236Z ASCAT PASS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90
KNOTS. TC 16P HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
CONSOLIDATING AROUND A 16 NM EYE. TC 16P CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM IN THE NEAR TERM, CARRYING THE CYCLONE TOWARD
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL GRANDE TERRE ISLAND, NEW CALEDONIA, WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, DRIVEN BY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, TC 16P WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE POLEWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE BASE
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE THROUGH TAU 48. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 AS INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT
DIRECTLY WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170410 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 165.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.7S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.4S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.7S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.4S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 166.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 47 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUDS-
TOPS OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE IT MADE LANDFALL OVER NEW CALEDONIA
AROUND 04Z. HOWEVER, A 101009Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL
REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY
DVORAKS RANGING FROM 4.0-5.0 (65-90 KNOTS) AND SATCON VALUES AROUND
75 KNOTS. DESPITE AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS AND SSTS
DECREASING TO 27C. TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL RE-ORIENT TO THE NORTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
THE STR AND THE TROUGH THROUGH TAU 48. TC COOK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
STEADILY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO UNDERGO AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 48, AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH SOME MINOR SPEED DIFFERENCES,
LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170411 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 24.9S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.5S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.9S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.0S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 167.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE AND DEGRADE AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
102215Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16P HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVED INTO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
KNOTS AND INCREASING). A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS AND IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. TC COOK IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD
BAROCLINIC LOW BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170411 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 26.6S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 168.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.3S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 168.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 111141Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC REGION, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 15 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_cook.htm | Updated: 18 April 2017 |