[Index]
Tropical Cyclone DINEO
Southern Hemisphere Summary
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone DINEO Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS31 PGTW 20170213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121251ZFEB2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 39.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 39.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.7S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.1S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.5S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.0S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.3S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.9S 31.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 39.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LLCC. A 131012Z GCOM-W1 COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A DEFINED
CENTER ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRIMARY BAND, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA
ISLAND (61972) SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS AT 46 KNOTS, AND A 130622Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS.
OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST NEAR 30C. TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS A BROAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH NEAR TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TC DINEO WILL
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE NEAR TAU 60 AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36 THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
APPROACHES LAND AND TRACKS INLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 121300).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 39.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 39.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.3S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.8S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.3S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.6S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.4S 32.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 38.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 132344Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. OVERALL, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST NEAR 30C. TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS A BROAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR
IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. TC DINEO WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AFTER TAU NEAR 36 AND WILL
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36 THEN WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND.DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.9S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.3S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.4S 34.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.2S 33.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.5S 29.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 38.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM WEST OF
EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING TIGHTLY WOUND SPIRAL SYSTEM WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW
BANDING ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 141159Z 85 GHZ
SSMI IMAGE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE STRUGGLING TO FORM LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES
REPORTING T3.5 (55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
VERY FAVORABLE WITH THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTING DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE ALSO EXTREMELY WARM IN EXCESS
OF 30 CELSIUS. TC DINEO WILL HAVE A SHORT WINDOW TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 75 KNOTS. CURRENTLY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS STEERING TC DINEO ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. LANDFALL
OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 30. AS THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM
FURTHER INLAND. THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 22.7S 37.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 37.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.2S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.3S 35.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.2S 34.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 37.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTER INTO AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
142246Z SSMIS PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SST NEAR 30C. TC
05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON
A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 12 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. TC DINEO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A
PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12 THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 23.5S 36.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 36.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.6S 34.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.3S 32.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 35.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 151000Z 89 GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
SPIRAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A NEWLY FORMED EYE
FEATURE PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE SUPPORTING NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS. HOWEVER FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY AS TC DINEO IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SOON DISRUPT THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
STEERING THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS. A BUILDING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ASSUME STEERING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
DRIVING THE SYSTEM FURTHER INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170216 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 23.4S 34.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 34.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.9S 32.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.5S 29.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 33.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
REMAINING OVER THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
MOVED INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS ALONG HE
COASTLINE. TC DINEO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND
DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_dineo.htm | Updated: 17 February 2017 |