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Tropical Cyclone DONNA
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Tropical Cyclone DONNA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20170501 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 169.9E TO 14.6S 173.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 170.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED/MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
011909Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED DEEP, PERSISTENT AND
FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011032Z 25KM (METOP-B)
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS PRIMARIALLY 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITH A FEW
30 KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTRAPOLATED
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT
SOURCE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE HOOKING BACK
TOWARD A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170502 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/012051ZMAY2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 171.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 171.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.1S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.1S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.1S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.2S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.0S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.1S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.0S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 172.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING SHOWING RAPID
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 021521Z
89 GHZ GMI IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF AVAILABLE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RELATIVELY HIGH. A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW. CURRENTLY TC 18P IS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEST COMPETING FOR STEERING. A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK
IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
EXPECTED WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER. AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN TO THE SOUTH ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AROUND TAU 36.
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND
TAU 72 PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED EXHAUST IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AS
THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS TURNING SOUTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN POSSIBLE TRACK MOTION DUE TO
THE NEAR-TERM COMPLEX STEERING SCENARIO. OVERALL, EACH SOLUTION
SHOWS AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT VARIES IN THE EXACT
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TURNS. DUE TO THE COMPLEX MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z AND 032100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW
012100).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170503 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 171.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 171.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.7S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.0S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.5S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.1S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.2S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.6S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.4S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 171.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
LOW-LEVEL CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 030412Z SSMIS IMAGE AND RECENT
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM KNES AND PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T=3.5 FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 18P HAS TURNED WESTWARD
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY
INTENSIFIED, AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED, UNDER THE FAVORABLE
INFLUENCES OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5-10 KNOTS) AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C). TC 18P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION RATE THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
POSSIBLE. BY TAU 48, A BREAK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE STEERING
RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING TC
18P TO TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BY TAU 120, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING
TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO OF A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN
THE NEAR-TERM, FOLLOWED BY A POLEWARD TRACK IN THE MEDIUM TO
EXTENDED RANGE. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT PATH THE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW. THE CURRENT JTWC
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LIES WITHIN THE MODEL FORECAST ENVELOPE NOT FAR FROM
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A TRACK
RUNNING PARALLEL AND NEAR TO THE VANUATU ISLAND CHAIN. CONSIDERING
THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170503 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.2S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.6S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.2S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.1S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.2S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.6S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 169.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOWING IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN AN 031842Z 91
GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 65 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS, AND VERY GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS CREATING A SLIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH RESTRICTED
OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN PHASE
WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR. CURRENTLY TC DONNA IS
TRACKING WESTWARD GUIDED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING TC DONNA TO TURN
SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN TRACK MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170504 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 12.4S 168.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 168.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 12.8S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.4S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.1S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.7S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.9S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.0S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.9S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 167.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM NORTH
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS SPIRAL BANDS CURVED TIGHTER INTO
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE
MSI LOOP THAT LINES UP WELL WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 040442Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T4.6 AND REFLECTS THE DEEPENED STATE
OF THE CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THERE IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ALONG-TRACK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BUT IS MOSTLY OFFSET THE OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION
THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. TC DONNA IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
TRACK POLEWARD THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST IN THE NEAR- TO MID-TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS OVERALL IMPROVED AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AS THE SOLE
WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170504 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 166.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 166.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.6S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.0S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.4S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.0S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.9S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.1S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.0S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 166.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A BROAD COLD
OVERCAST LAYER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A FORMING LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 041650Z 37
GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SUPPORTING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITH SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW
ALOFT. A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED JUST TO THE NORTH IS CREATING SOME
WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
IN-PHASE WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR. CURRENTLY TC DONNA IS
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AS A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
COMPETES WITH THE DOMINANT SOUTHEAST RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
ENHANCING OUTFLOW. TC DONNA WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 BY TAU
48. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WESTERN RIDGE AND THE
SYSTEM WILL TURN AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TAU
48. HIGH WINDS ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGIN
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK TRAJECTORY, BUT THERE IS
STILL A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN AND WHERE TC DONNA
WILL MAKE THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS, AND THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK REFLECTS THIS CHANGE. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z,
051500Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170505 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 166.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 166.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.6S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.0S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.5S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.2S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.1S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.1S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.7S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 166.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY
FEATURE IN A 042215Z AMSU-B IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON BOTH OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED IN THE UPPER-LEVELS OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST
WHICH IS RESTRICTING OUTFLOW ON THE NORTH AND EASTERN QUADRANTS AND
CREATING A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
IS STILL EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
JET. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM IN THE REGION, NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
CURRENTLY TC DONNA IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AS A
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES WITH THE DOMINANT SOUTHEAST RIDGE.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MODERATE SHEAR DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL MITIGATE DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND
TAU 24 A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ENHANCING
OUTFLOW, AND PRIME TC DONNA FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION.
PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 110 BY TAU 48. THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE WESTERN RIDGE AND THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TAU 48. HIGH WINDS
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
TRAJECTORY, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING TC DONNA WILL MAKE THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK TO
THE WEST IN RECENT MODEL RUNS, AND THIS TREND IS BEGINNING TO
STABILIZE, THUS IMPROVING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE SOUTHWARD TURN, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND
052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170505 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 165.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 165.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.0S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.4S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.9S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.7S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.9S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.9S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.7S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 165.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 291 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS SPIRAL
BANDS CURVED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINES UP WELL WITH A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 050409Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE DEEPENED STATE
OF THE CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THERE IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ALONG-TRACK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BUT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY THE OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION
THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. TC DONNA IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
TRACK POLEWARD THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST IN THE NEAR- TO MID-TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 36-48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. BY
TAU 120, TC DONNA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE SOLE
EASTWARD OUTLIER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170505 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 165.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.2S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.5S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.0S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.2S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.3S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.3S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.2S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 164.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A DEEP
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDS THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A WARM PIXEL IN THE EIR THAT LINES UP WELL WITH
A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 051048Z AMSU MICROWAVE
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ALONG-TRACK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY THE OUTFLOW AND THE
STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. TC
DONNA IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 12, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TRACK POLEWARD THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. AS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE NEAR- TO MID-TERM, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 48-72.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE. BY TAU 120, TC DONNA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170505 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.5S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.1S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.1S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.3S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.6S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.7S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.2S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 164.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) SIGNATURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROADER CIRRUS SHIELD. WHILE THE INITIAL POSITION IS NOT
CLEAR IN THE INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AT 89 AND 37 GHZ FROM A 051637Z SSMIS PASS CONFIRM DEVELOPMENT OF A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON ASSESSMENT OF REPORTING AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDES IN A WEAKLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE MODERATE BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS,
BUT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY THE OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-
PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC
DONNA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ALONG A TONGA TO NEW
CALEDONIA AXIS, WHICH HAS BLOCKED DONNA?S MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH. THE
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12.
BY TAU 24, THE EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE STR AXIS
WILL REORIENT TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, ALLOWING TC DONNA
TO BEGIN IT?S POLEWARD TURN AND ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS AT TAU 48. THEREAFTER TC
DONNA WILL WEAKEN RELATIVELY RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE SOLE EASTWARD OUTLIER AND GFDN AS THE
WESTERN OUTLIER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170506 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 163.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.0S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.3S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.5S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.6S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.6S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 163.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ESTABLISHED
CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) HAVING COMPLETELY DISSIPATED, WITH ONLY
PATCHY MODERATE CONVECTION. AS OF THE LATE 0000Z HOUR, SIGNS OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE APPEARED, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF THIS WILL STICK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE AVAILABLE HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 2156Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
AND COINCIDENT ASCAT-B PASS, WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), STILL SHIELDED FROM VIEW BY UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON
ASSESSMENT OF REPORTING AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0 AND SUPPORTED BY THE OVERALL
WEAKENED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL DATA, THE RECENT WEAKENING PHASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AND WAS
DRIVEN BY AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER TOP OF
THE SYSTEM. RECENT ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHIFT FROM THIS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE IN THE NEAR TERM. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
OF INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC DONNA HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS ALONG TONGA TO NEW CALEDONIA TO
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA AXIS, WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT AT THIS TIME. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
REORIENT TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS BY TAU 24, ALLOWING TC DONNA TO
TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BEFORE BEGINNING A WEAKENING
TREND AFTER TAU 72 AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE. TC DONNA WILL
BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EGRR REMAINING AS THE SOLE EASTWARD OUTLIER, LEADING
TO TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 30 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z,
061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170506 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.8S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.0S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.3S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.7S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.1S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.3S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.0S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 164.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND DESPITE A RECENT
RESURGENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CURVED BANDING. A 060514Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE INDICATES AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BUT
EVIDENCES A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 4.0 TO 5.0 REFLECTING THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. TC 18P IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A
WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA AND A STRONG
STR TO THE EAST. THE WESTERN STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CORAL SEA, WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN STR TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SST,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU
36, TC 18P SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. NEAR TAU 72, TC 18P WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS IT COMPLETES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
TC 18P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOL SST UNDER
26C. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170506 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.2S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.4S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.2S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.9S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.1S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.7S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 164.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED 12-NM EYE WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT EIR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE EYE HAS FILLED. A 061113Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE
BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
AN ASYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THE EYE AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. TRACK
MOTION REMAINS SLOW WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0
FROM PGTW, PHFO AND KNES. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) OVER NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA AND A STRONG STR TO THE EAST. THE
WESTERN STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CORAL SEA, WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE EASTERN STR TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
110 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SST, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU
36, TC 18P SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. NEAR TAU 72, TC 18P WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS IT COMPLETES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
TC 18P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOL SST LESS
THAN 25C. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170506 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.3S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.5S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.9S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.5S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.2S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.1S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 164.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 18P IS ENTERING ANOTHER RELATIVE
CONVECTIVE LULL IN ITS CONTINUED PATTERN OF PULSATING DEEP
CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BANDING REMAINS
TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY HAS FORMED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
061624Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CENTRAL BANDING, AND THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL PRESENTS A WELL
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE. A RE-ANALYSIS OF RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 061114Z BYU ASCAT PRODUCT AND ASSOCIATED
NORMALIZED RADAR CROSS SECTION INDICATES DONNA HAS REMAINED ALMOST
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) FOR NEARLY 18 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHEAST
AUSTRALIA AND A STRONG STR TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES ARE
STARTING TO SUGGEST THE WESTERN STR IS FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE,
WITH THE EASTERN STR EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT DAY RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD
MOTION. UPWELLING DURING THIS QS PERIOD HAS LIKELY TEMPERED THE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS RELATIVELY LIGHT, THE BROAD AND DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CENTER HAVE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE CENTRAL CORE. AS TC DONNA BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OVER
WARMER WATERS, CONTINUED ROBUST OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE AROUND 105
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND TAU
48. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 72 AS TC DONNA
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VWS AT THAT TIME WILL INITIATE RAPID
WEAKENING. DONNA IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND BE FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z,
071500Z, AND 072100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170507 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.9S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.3S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.9S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.2S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.4S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.5S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 164.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A RAGGED EYE IS TRYING TO FORM AS SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPS INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER,
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING. A 062220Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
THE PRIMARY SPIRAL BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND A 50 NM DIAMETER
MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE AND THE PGTW FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
WAS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM T4.5-5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES,
RELECTING THE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CONVECTION. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA AND A STRONG STR TO
THE EAST. GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST THE EASTERN STR SHOULD
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT DAY, RESULTING
IN A MORE PRONOUCED SOUTHWARD MOTION. UPWELLING HAS LIKELY TEMPERED
THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO VERY SLOW MOTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS RELATIVELY LIGHT,
HOWEVER, THE BROAD AND DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTER
HAVE HAMPERED THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTRAL CORE. AS TC DONNA
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OVER WARMER WATERS, CONTINUED ROBUST
OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE AROUND 105 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND TAU 36. EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN NEAR TAU 48 AS TC DONNA MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VWS AT TAU 72 WILL INITIATE RAPID WEAKENING.
DONNA IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BE FULLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND
080300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170507 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 164.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 164.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.3S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.8S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.1S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.7S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 164.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH A 17-
NM EYE EVIDENT, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE RAPIDLY.
A 070500Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS ASYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION WITH A
DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SHALLOW
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CORE, WHICH IS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE FLAT TREND AND PULSATING CONVECTION, DIVERGING
INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
4.5/5.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO. CURRENT MODEL
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS
ERODED DUE TO AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THEREFORE, THE
EASTERN STR IS NOW THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 18P
HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. TC DONNA SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO WARM SST AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CORE. AFTER
TAU 24, GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
MARGINAL SST. BY TAU 48, TC 18P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170507 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.1S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.7S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.4S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.2S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.6S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 164.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS STRENGTHENING, ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A 21-NM EYE. A 071052Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE PULSATING, ASYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION, DIVERGING
INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5. CURRENT MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE
THAT THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS ERODED DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THEREFORE, THE EASTERN STR IS
NOW THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 18P HAS
ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DOMINANT STR. TC DONNA SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO WARM SST AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CORE. AFTER
TAU 12, GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
MARGINAL SST. BY TAU 36, TC 18P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170507 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 164.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 164.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.2S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.6S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.1S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.8S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 164.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER DAYS OF SLOW OR STALLED
DEVELOPMENT, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 18P HAS IMPROVED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND
MAINTAINED A RAGGED 25 NM DIAMETER EYE DURING A PERIOD OF PRONOUNCED
INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EYE FIXES WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM KNES
AND NFFN. THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE IS T6.5, HOWEVER, AN ASSESSMENT
OF RECENT 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SUPPORT THAT RANGE AT
THIS TIME. TC DONNA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST WATERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY. BETWEEN TAUS 24 TO 36, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND LAND
INTERACTION WITH NEW CALEDONIA WILL INCREASE, INITIATING A SLOW
DISSIPATION. BY TAU 36, TC 18P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-26 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND
INTERACTS WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170508 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 164.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 164.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.3S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.7S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.2S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.8S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.2S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 164.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC 30 NM EYE, WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EYE
FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 072254Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A
SOLID CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, ABRF, AND PHFO, AND IS
SUPPORTED BY CIMSS SATCON. TC DONNA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST, WITH MOTION EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS REMAIN IN MOSTLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD IS GENERALLY LOW, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST WATERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY.
BETWEEN TAUS 24 TO 36, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND LAND INTERACTION
WITH NEW CALEDONIA WILL INCREASE, INITIATING A SLOW DISSIPATION. BY
TAU 36, TC 18P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-26 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND INTERACTS
WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z, AND 090300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170508 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.8S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.3S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.8S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.7S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.2S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 165.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TC
18P APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WITH THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD-
FILLED AND CORE CONVECTION INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC. A 080446Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES EROSION OF EYEWALL CONVECTION OVER THE WEST
QUADRANT WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. TC 18P PEAKED EARLIER NEAR 120 KNOTS BUT IS NOW ASSESSED AT
115 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
115 TO 127 KNOTS (T6.0 TO 6.5), CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. TC DONNA IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA DUE
TO COOLER SST AND LAND INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD SST. TC 18P
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 60. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND
090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170508 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 165.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.3S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.8S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.5S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.6S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.0S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 165.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 18P HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A MORE
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 081030Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES EROSION OF EYEWALL CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOWER
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 127 KNOTS. TC 18P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. TC DONNA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA DUE TO COOLER SST AND
LAND INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD SST. TC 18P SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 60. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170508 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 166.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 166.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.0S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.6S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.6S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.7S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 30.3S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 166.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 18P WEAKENING WITH ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS
WHICH IS HEDGED ON THE LOWER END OF THE PGTW DVORAK FIX OF T5.5. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS 27-28C), AND HAS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WITH WEAKER EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. AS TC
DONNA TRACKS TO THE SOUTH IT WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SSTS
AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTHWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CYCLONE. THE INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONCURRENTLY CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHICH WILL BE
COMPLETED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170509 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.0S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.6S 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.3S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 166.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 18P WEAKENING WITH ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED ON THE
LOWER END OF AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK FIXES RANGING FROM T5.0
TO T6.0 (90 TO 115 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS 27-
28C), AND HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH WEAKER EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. AS TC DONNA TRACKS TO THE SOUTH IT WILL
MOVE INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CYCLONE.
THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL CONCURRENTLY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION WHICH WILL BE COMPLETED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090600, 091500Z,
092100, AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170509 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 167.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.6S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.2S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.4S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 090432Z 91 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS INTRODUCING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THUS IMPEDING THE
POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC DONNA IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO
COOLER WATERS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
REGION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170509 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 166.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 166.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.7S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.7S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.5S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 167.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION
THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0 (45 TO 65 KNOTS). POOR
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ERODES THE SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY, TC DONNA IS TRACKING INTO COOLER WATERS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE
EAST THAT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE
RESUMING ITS MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE ON
THIS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170510 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 168.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 168.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.6S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 168.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST
TWELVE HOURS AND A RECENT T2.5 (35 KNOTS) ESTIMATE COMBINED WITH
LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MARE ISLAND IS THE BASIS FOR THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
HAVE DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND TC DONNA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_donna.htm | Updated: 22 May 2017 |