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Tropical Cyclone ELLA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone ELLA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20170508 14:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 230 NM RADIUS OF 15.9S 172.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081400Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 172.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 173.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 172.5W, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080944Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. A 072114Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A
RECENT 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE
WEAK DEVELOPMENT AND A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170509 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.3S 172.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 172.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.0S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.9S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.0S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.2S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.4S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.8S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.9S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 173.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS, ALBEIT SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO
A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
CLOSED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 082311Z 37GHZ GPM
MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0
TO T3.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MINIMAL OUTFLOW. TC 19P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE MAKING A U-TURN SOUTHWARD
AFTER TAU 72. THE LACK OF AN OUTFLOW MECHANISM WILL MOSTLY STIFLE ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, FINALLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 120 AS IT DRAGS
ACROSS FIJI. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD TURN, HOWEVER, THERE
ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED. IN VIEW OF THIS, PLUS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL SET OF FORECAST
AIDS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(DONNA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 081430).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170509 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 173.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 173.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.8S 174.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.0S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.3S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.7S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.3S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.5S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.7S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 173.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FLARING CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 091226Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AVERAGING MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.5 (35 TO 55
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET
BY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ALOFT. A NOTABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IS PRESENT, HOWEVER OUTFLOW FROM 18P (DONNA) AND WESTERLY FLOW
RELATED TO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS IMPEDING THE EXHAUST OF TC ELLA
ON THE WESTERN AND POLEWARD PERIPHERIES. CURRENTLY TC ELLA IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL WITH SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 72 A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION ERODING THE STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCING A HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AND RAPID WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE TRACK SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170510 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 174.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 174.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.9S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.2S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.8S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.2S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.2S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.5S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 174.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM WEST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WHICH HAS
BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF A 2118Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATING A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ASCAT
DATA SHOWING A FEW 40 KNOT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC AS WELL AS MULTI-
AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35 TO 45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES OF 15-20 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH IS RESTRICTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND EXHAUST OF TC
ELLA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. TC ELLA IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THE
FORECAST IS FOR ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY
BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER, TC ELLA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY
AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE REMAINING LLCC TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A BIFURCATION OCCURRING BEYOND
THIS POINT. NAVGEM AND GFDN ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS, AND INDICATE
A POSSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO OF A TRACK SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TAKE THE
OPPOSITE TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TRACK TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN TURING NORTHWEST IN
THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE
BIFURCATION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(DONNA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170510 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 176.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 176.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.0S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.4S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.5S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.1S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.5S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 176.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA, SAMOA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
100950Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 50 KNOTS IS
ALSO BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE IN AGREEMENT WITH
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS
NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY A POOR
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY TC ELLA IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC ELLA WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST SLIGHTLY ERODING THE STEERING RIDGE AND
INTRODUCING MODERATE WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TURNS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK MOTION UP TO TAU 36.
THEREAFTER, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MIXED AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD OR TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE
TROUGH. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170511 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 176.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 176.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.6S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.9S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.2S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.3S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.0S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
RREMARKS:
10300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 177.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTHEAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PULSATING
DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 102301Z GPM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A WELL DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR OUTFLOW, HOWEVER,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS). CURRENTLY, ELLA IS
TRACKING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH, CAUSING A SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RE-ORIENTS THE STEERING FLOW. TC
ELLA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND TAU 72 IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER
LEVELS OF VWS DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WHILE THE INTENSITY
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN POOR AGREEMENT, HWRF, ECMWF, AND GFS ALL
REFLECT THE SYSTEM ERODING AROUND TAU 72. TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE
MODELS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD, BOTH IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170511 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 177.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 177.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.6S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.8S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.9S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.8S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.5S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 177.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A NEARLY SYMMETRIC AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER, AND CONCEALING THE CENTER. A
110928Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65
KNOTS). OVERALL, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED NEAR 65 KNOTS
AROUND 11/04Z AND SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. TC 19P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TC ELLA SHOULD RE-
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170512 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 178.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 178.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.2S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.4S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.5S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.5S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.2S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.2S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CONVECTIVE
CORE, WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST. AN 112036Z
METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE AND ASSOCIATED SCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE
ASSESSMENT OF A VERY COMPACT CORE OF STRONG WINDS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, NEAR THE TOP OF THE RANGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS), GIVEN
THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN UPPER-
LEVEL COL, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND POOR OUTFLOW IN THE COL. ELLA IS TRACKING IN A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW TC 19P TO RETURN TO
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEGINNING NEAR TAU 36 AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL
STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL, WHICH DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170512 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 178.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 178.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.9S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.9S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.7S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.4S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.5S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 178.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. A 121126Z GMI 37 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE SOME PRESSURE / SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO ENCROACHING WESTERLIES AND MODERATE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AS A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 12, THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TC ELLA SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170513 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 178.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 178.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.5S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.3S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.0S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.0S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.4S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 179.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND SHEARED FURTHER EASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 122256Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED
STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW REMAINS CONSTRAINED. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. HIGH VWS IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY
SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170513 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 179.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 179.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.9S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.7S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.5S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.4S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.6S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 179.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT
AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T 3.5 (55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED IN THE UPPER-LEVELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS LEADING TO
THE DECLINING INTENSITY. HOWEVER WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED AN
APPROACHING TROUGH SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, HIGH
WIND SHEAR FROM THE WESTERLY JET WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
TRACK PHILOSOPHY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170514 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 179.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 179.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.8S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.9S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.2S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 179.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AS EVIDENCED BY
WARMED AND UNRAVELING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT REMAINS SHEARED FROM
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES IDENTIFYING A
DEFINED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND SATCON DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND ON A 132135Z ASCAT PASS AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING
TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. THESE
FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TC 19P, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY
TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LEADING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170514 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 12.2S 176.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 176.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.2S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 175.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS LIMITED SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
DISPLACED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
ELONGATED LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 141116Z 89 GHZ GMI
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DETERIORATING STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
141008Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN UNRAVELING LLCC WITH A SMALL
REGION OF 25 KNOT BARBS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. TC ELLA HAS
FULLY DISSIPATED AND THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 9 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_ella.htm | Updated: 22 May 2017 |