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Tropical Cyclone ERNIE
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone ERNIE Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20170406 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 111.1E TO 15.4S 110.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 111.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 111.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 111.0E, APPROXIMATELY
475 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVER CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONSISTENT CONVECTION OVER IT AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE EAST. A 052113Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE LLCC WITH BANDING ALSO VISIBLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170406 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060121ZAPR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.1S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.7S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.2S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.5S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.9S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER
CONSOLIDATED AS CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED, ALBEIT PARTIALLY OFFSET
FROM THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON A 060225Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25-30 KNOT) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THE VWS
AND SUBSIDENCE ARE MOSTLY OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. TC 15S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THEN ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR BUILDS. THE STRONG OUTFLOW
WILL PROMOTE MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL PREVAIL AND GRADUALLY ERODE THEN
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TRAJECTORY, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC INITIAL TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060600Z IS 10 FEET. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
060130). NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170406 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.3S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.6S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.9S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.2S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.8S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 110.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE OVERCAST LAYER OBSCURING THE LLCC AND ABSENCE OF RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES FOR ANALYSIS OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE
OF CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH,
HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM ARE HINDERING
OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SSTS ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30
CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH GUIDED BY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH
EVENTUALLY GUIDING THE SYSTEM TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. BEYOND TAU
36 WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL STEERING PHILOSOPHY, BUT
DIFFER WIDELY IN THE EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170407 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 110.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.1S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.5S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.9S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.8S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.0S 99.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.9S 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 110.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS INDICATED BY THE QUICK
DEVELOPMENT OF VERY TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS INTO A
WELL-DEFINED 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THESE, PLUS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE
UPPER WIND FLOW, HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE RI. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD
AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR BUILDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RESULTING
IN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BEFORE THE CYCLONE
TURNS WESTWARD INTO INCREASING VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170407 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 110.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.6S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.1S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.6S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.1S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.6S 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.6S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.7S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 110.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 5NM WIDE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
MULTIPLE AGENCIES, AND IS WELL ABOVE THE PREVIOUSLY-FORECASTED VALUE
DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH AND AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST INITIALLY WITH THE TRACK BECOMING
MORE WESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, RESULTING IN FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 135 KNOTS BEFORE THE CYCLONE TURNS
WESTWARD INTO INCREASING VWS AND COMMENCES A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE WESTWARD TURN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170408 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.9S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.4S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.0S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.8S 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.5S 99.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 109.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 080144Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT TIGHTLY
CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CIRCULATION,
AND SUPPORT THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS EYE FEATURE AND CLOUD-
TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS, INDICATING THAT
A RAPID WEAKENING TREND HAS COMMENCED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95
KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KNOTS), AND IS SUPPORTED BY AMSU AND SSMIS OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 90 TO 95 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
NO LONGER SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASED (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, DESPITE FAVORABLE SSTS AND A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC ERNIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED OVER
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THIS STEERING FEATURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM ON A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE. BASED ON THIS TRACK, TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO ENTER AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL
STEERING PATTERN LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170408 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 108.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 108.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.4S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.1S 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9S 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.8S 97.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 108.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND IS BASED ON A 081415Z 89 GHZ
AMSU IMAGE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DRY AIR
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH UPON THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INTRODUCING SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IMPEDING OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IS STILL PRESENT FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. TC ERNIE
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) WATER AND ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK GUIDED BY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS TC ERNIE CONTINUES ALONG ITS TRACK. COOL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION, THE SST GRADIENT DECREASES RAPIDLY
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170409 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.1S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.0S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.8S 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.5S 99.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE TC CENTER. A 090214Z GPM 89 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS A PINHOLE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
85 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (70 TO 90
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. DESPITE AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH
INCREASING (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SSTS/OHC
VALUES, AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC ERNIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR
POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THIS STEERING FEATURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING THE
SYSTEM ON A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE. BASED ON THIS TRACK,
TC 15S IS FORECAST TO ENTER AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
SHARPLY COLDER SSTS RESULTING IN STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING PATTERN LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS
28 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170409 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 105.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 105.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9S 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.8S 100.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 104.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION LIES NEAR
A GROUPING OF SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS SET BETWEEN DVORAK FINAL T-
NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF,
AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE CONSENSUS
FIX TREND. TC 15S IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
ONGOING SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, INDUCING DISSIPATION BY TAU 24.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170410 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 103.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 103.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.5S 100.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 102.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A 100244Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS (WITH ISOLATED 40 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SSTS
DROPPING TO 25C. TC ERNIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED OVER
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND IS
FORECAST TO REACH FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12, DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15
FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_ernie.htm | Updated: 18 April 2017 |