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Tropical Cyclone FERNANDO
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone FERNANDO Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20170307 04:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 75.7E TO 16.3S 69.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 74.9E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 76.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 74.9E, APPROXIMATELY 515
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 070054Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH A DEFINED CENTER. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND A NARROW REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20170308 04:30z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070421Z MAR 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 070430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 75.7E TO 16.3S 69.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 71.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 72.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 485
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 072249Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
DEFINED CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090430Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED CURRENT STORM POSITION IN
PARA 2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170308 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.3S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.8S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.8S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND A 081732Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE PREVIOUSLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081732Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING THE TIGHT LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.5-3.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH TEMPS
OBSERVED NEAR 30C. SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT
THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING TC 11S SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE TIME
BEING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S ARE CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFF THE LLCC, AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AS UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC11S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FOREWORD MOTION AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME INITIAL DISAGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS 14 FEET. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170309 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 68.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 68.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.0S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.5S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.4S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.2S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.1S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.6S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 68.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS SHEARED FROM
THE MAIN CONVECTION, INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINES UP WELL WITH A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 090440Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD ON THE LOW END OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 11S HAS UNEXPECTEDLY DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, A DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS IN PLACE AND CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING POLEWARD INTO
LOWER VWS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BEFORE
RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW
BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH EGRR AS THE SOLE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170309 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.6S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.9S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.9S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.9S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 27.7S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 69.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 482 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE USING ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR), MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IT REMAINS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 091711Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES OF T2.5 FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A 091711Z PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED 35 KNOT HITS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST HAS, OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, MOVED MASS OVER TOP OF TC 11S AND RESULTED IN A
SHEARED AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION. TC 11S HAS DRIFTED IN A GENERAL CLOCKWISE LOOP, AS
IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NET) TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, NEAR 29C, PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION ONCE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING MORE POLEWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AS THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH ABOUT TAU 96. BETWEEN TAUS 96
AND 120, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR OVER SOUTH AFRICA WILL BUILD IN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A RAPID DECELERATION IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11S
WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THE TROUGH AXIS
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR A SHORT TIME. HOWEVER, THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BY TAU 36,
AGAIN LIMITING VENTILATION OF TC 11S LEADING TO A FLAT INTENSITY
FORECAST BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW, IT
WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT THE BASE OF A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ALLOWING A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE SOLE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THERE IS
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.2S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.2S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.3S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.8S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 28.2S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 69.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A WEAK AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND SHEARED FROM THE MAIN
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AS THE LLC HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND OBSCURED. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY A 100421 ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 AND SUPPORTED BY
THE ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, A DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO THE SHEARED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS
RELAXES, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96 BEFORE VWS INCREASES AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD MOTION, HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LATERAL SPEED. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE
IS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.5S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SYSTEM THAT IS GENERALLY DISORGANIZED WITH POOR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE LLC IS DISSIPATING INTO A TROUGH. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A FIX BY PGTW ESTIMATING T1.5 (25
KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THESE FACTORS ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING THE REMNANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE
CONVERGING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST AND
RIDGING TO THE EAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101800Z IS 6 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) FOR
FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_fernando.htm | Updated: 27 March 2017 |