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Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA
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Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 120130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 69.5E TO 18.4S 64.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 69.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 68.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 500
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. AN 112059Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30 CELSIUS). AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER LOWER VALUES OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120121ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.5S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.7S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.6S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.4S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.0S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.9S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 121717Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC WITH THE CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S
WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH
TAU 48. TC 06S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC 06S
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE. A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 06S
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BEGINNING NEAR TAU 96. DUE TO THE LACK OF A
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE TRACKS, ESPECIALLY AS TC 06S BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER
TAU 96 THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 120130). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S (JOYCE) WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.5S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.6S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.5S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.4S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.3S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.2S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.5S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION
LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 122226Z SSMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN IMPROVING BANDING STRUCTURE AROUND THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36 AND INTENSIFY
TO 65 KNOTS. TC 06S WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
TAU 72 WITH A CONTINUED WEAK STEERING PATTERN. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WILL ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 06S SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR TAU
72. THE DEVELOPING DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS WILL ALLOW TC 06S TO REACH
AN INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE LACK OF A PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS, ESPECIALLY AS TC 06S BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 72
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BUT A
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z,
132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.8S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.8S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.6S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.6S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
130511Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35-40 KNOT WIND
BARBS AND IS ON THE UPPER END OF THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 06S HAS WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE WEST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE FINALLY
ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 95
KNOTS AROUND TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE TRACK DUE TO THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THIS IS
PRODUCING A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE QUASI STATIONARY
PERIOD. HOWEVER, IN GENERAL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LONG TERM. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BRIGUITTA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.0S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.9S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.7S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.9S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 63.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT HAS
SLIGHTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE REMAINING
CONVECTION IS CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 131059Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE WEST INITIALLY, SHIFTING THE WEST NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 12 IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS AROUND TAU 96 BEFORE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK DUE TO THE
LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE IN THE EARLY TAUS AND VARIATIONS
IN THE RATE AT WHICH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS. WHILE GENERALLY
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST
INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z,
140900Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.4S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.9S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.5S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.4S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 63.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OVERALL DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST ACTIVITY BEING CONFINED TO NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 131740Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM KNES. A 131658Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE PASS INDICATED
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06S LIES IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SSTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WELL ORGANIZED POINT SOURCE JUST TO ITS NORTH,
PROVIDING ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 06S
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 12, THEN MEANDER
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR
AND GENERALLY TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
LYING ALONG ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48 AS THE STR EXTENDS
TOWARDS THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES REORIENTED TO A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTATION, TC 06S WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
ACCELERATE. TC 06S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 DUE
TO THE OVERALL WEAK STEERING PATTERN. AFTER TAU 48, MOST OF THE
MODELS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD
SPEED BEING THE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT. WHILE ALL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE EARLY TAU'S, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKERS BEYOND TAU 48, WITH THE EUROPEAN MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES TAKING THE SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, WHILE
THE COAMPS-TC SHOWS NO NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT, AND CONTINUES THE
SYSTEM DIRECTLY SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC
TRACK LIES ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS. WITH
THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 63.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 63.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.1S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.8S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.6S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.4S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.1S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.8S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.0S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 63.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED STRUCTURALLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEPENING CORE CONVECTION CENTERED AROUND THE
ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 132349Z SSMIS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND DEEP
CONVECTION NEARLY ENCIRCLING THE LLCC. THE SAME EYE FEATURE IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN LOWER FREQUENCY MICROWAVE DATA (37 GHZ) BUT IS NOT AS
CLEAR AND OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE VERTICALLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AS WELL
AS AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS AND
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 06S REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM
(28 CELSIUS) SSTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING OVERALL WEAK
BUT WELL ORGANIZED OUTFLOW, THE WEAK NATURE OF WHICH IS THE ONLY
HINDRANCE KEEPING TC 06S ON ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 06S
HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER WEAK STEERING
FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 24, THEN INCREASE SPEED SLIGHTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
STR WHICH DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48 THE STR
MOVES TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 06S, LEADING THE
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAP INTO A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, REACHING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72
BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING
SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AND TIMING
OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND TAU 48 HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BOTH IN THE ACROSS AND ALONG-TRACK
DIMENSIONS, WITH A SPREAD OF 410 NM BETWEEN THE TAU 120 OUTLIERS.
DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIERS, THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PATH THAT BRACKETS MAURITIUS. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.9S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.7S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.6S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.5S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.0S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TWO POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140449Z 89GHZ METOP-A AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10
KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM AND TC 06S
CURRENTLY HAS WELL ORGANIZED ALBEIT WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE WEAK NATURE OF THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE SYSTEMS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 06S CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY DUE TO THE
LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR CAUSES
THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. AS THE STR TRACKS TO THE EAST
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
ACCELERATE AND STEADILY ACCELERATE. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE
IT BEGINS A WEAKENING TREND AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 WITH SOME VARIATION IN THE
SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE
MODELS SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION LENDING TO A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LATER TAUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z
AND 150900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.9S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.0S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.3S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.2S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A SMALL AREA OF CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUASI STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATED
LOOP AND A 141043Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S IS
IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S HAS BEEN QUASI
STATIONARY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS BUILDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR TAKES OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE. AS THE STR TRANSITS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72,
PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS, UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
WITH THE HELP OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING ENHANCED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A WEAKENING
TREND AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 24.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON
THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER,
THE INITIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LEAD TO LARGE
VARIATIONS IN BOTH ALONG TRACK AND CROSS TRACK DIMENSIONS. THE JTWC
TRACK IS PLACED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z,
150900Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 63.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.7S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.2S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.6S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
BEST TRACK INDICATES THE LLCC IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 141719Z
AMSU 89 GHZ PASS, REVEALING A DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S
IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, NEARLY UNDERNEATH
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS), WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. BERGUITTA HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD
MOTION AS RIDGING HAS BEGUN TO BUILD OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOOPING
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES.
BEYOND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE WEST AND SOUTH BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AT
THE SAME TIME, A BUILDING STR TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT UP TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN THE POORLY
DEFINED LLCC. HOWEVER, THE QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION SHOULD ALLOW
THE LLCC TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72. THE SMALL SIZE AND SLOW MOTION
OF BERGUITTA MAY MAKE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) POSSIBLE, HOWEVER,
AT THIS TIME THE AVAILABLE RI GUIDANCE IS NEUTRAL. THEREFORE, TC 06S
IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, PEAKING AT 95
KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 72, SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MODERATE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO TRACK DIRECTION, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE QS PHASE. THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE MOGREPS ENSEMBLE, WITH THE SPREAD OF ALL
MEMBERS REMAINING EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED VERY
CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.8S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.7S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.3S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.6S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.7S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING A
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
BEST TRACK INDICATES THE LLCC IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD,
POSSIBLY INDICATIVE OF A LOOPING MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT HOOK FEATURE OBSERVED
IN THE 142336Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED
TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM T3.5 TO T4.5 (55 TO 77 KNOTS), WITH A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE
WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. SEVERAL FRAMES OF EIR JUST AFTER
SYNOPTIC TIME SUGGEST AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM, WHICH WOULD BE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY RANGE. DVORAK VALUES MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATED DUE TO THE COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE, WHICH CAN BE
OBSERVED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT TC 06S REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, NEARLY UNDERNEATH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), WARM (28-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOOPING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, AND ANOTHER
STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. BEYOND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEAKNESS BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES. AT THE SAME TIME, A STR
TO THE EAST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE
INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN MOVED FORWARD IN TIME AND REVISED TO A PEAK
OF 100 KNOTS, GIVEN THE RECENT DATA SUGGESTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) MAY BE OCCURRING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE HWRF MODEL AT THE HIGH END DEVELOPING
BERGUITTA INTO A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS PLACED ABOVE THE CONSENSUS REFLECTING THE HWRF. BEYOND
TAU 72, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD
TO TRACK DIRECTION, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE QS PHASE, HOWEVER TRACK
SPEEDS VARY WIDELY. THE MOGREPS ENSEMBLE REMAINS A NOTABLE OUTLIER,
WITH THE SPREAD OF ALL MEMBERS REMAINING EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE JTWC
TRACK IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION AND MODEL TRACK
SPEEDS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.8S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.9S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.8S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.9S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A 10 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE VISIBLE IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY. A TIGHT HOOK FEATURE
OBSERVED IN THE 150525Z 89 GHZ METOP-B AMSU SSMIS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 75 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90
KNOTS), FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE
OF 75 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S REMAINS IN
AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THEY SYSTEM HAS GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO WEAK AND
COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH, AND ANOTHER STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO A
WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES.
AROUND TAU 48, THE STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD AND
TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. THE QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 AND THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER A PERIOD OF QUASI STATIONARY MOTION. DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE
TIME AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THERE IS A FAIRLY
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z
AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.5S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.0S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.7S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.0S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.1S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.3S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 62.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 10 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE VISIBLE IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 151210 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE
EYE FEATURE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5
(90 TO 102 KNOTS), FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND
ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 88 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS IS IN
AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THEY SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 06S HAS BEEN QUASI STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS NOR FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, AND ANOTHER
STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH
BUILDS, IT WILL ALSO TRANSIT TO THE WEST AND TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE CAUSING TC 06S TO TRACK MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 36. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED THE
SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
36, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND THE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INITIALLY AND THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z,
160900Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.1S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.5S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.1S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.2S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 17 NM WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR EYE FIXES. A 151755Z
AMSU 89 GHZ PASS ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION WITH A PARTIAL MICROWAVE
EYE AND A COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5
(102 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES, AND SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-
PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS. BERGUITTA REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEARLY UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE, WITH THE
LATEST SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THAT OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST,
PARTICULARLY IN THE POLEWARD CHANNEL. SOME SLIGHT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS TC 09S TRACKS OVER A TONGUE OF HIGHER
SSTS, HOWEVER, SHIPS INDICATES VWS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, THE HWRF MODEL HAS FINALLY
LEVELED OFF. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BERGUITTA SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A NEAR STEADY INTENSITY AROUND 100 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS, AFTER WHICH ADDITIONAL VWS AND DECLINING OCEANIC
SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE LATEST BEST TRACK INDICATES TC
06S HAS BEGUN A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED FORWARD MOTION, HOWEVER,
COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS ARE STILL IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, TRACK
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 24 TO
36, A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGES IS EXPECTED TO FORM,
ALLOWING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN ACCELERATION OF FOREWARD
MOTION. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERGUITTA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AFTER TAU 36, FURTHER ENHANCING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION UNTIL TC 09S TURNS SOUTHWARD AND BEGINS TO
ROUND THE RIDGE NEAR TAU 96. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-26 DEGREE CELSIUS
WATERS, AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE LOW SPREAD AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PRIOR
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 160300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.1S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.9S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.0S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.2S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.0S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
COMPACT EYE THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR EYE FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 152323Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
EYE. THE SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEGRADED AROUND
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT HAS EXPANDED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE,
WITH POSSIBLE EARLY INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) SETTING UP. DESPITE SOME DEGRADATION IN THE EIR AND MICROWAVE
PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES, AND SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS
ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. BERGUITTA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
NEARLY UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE, WITH THE LATEST SHIPS ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND 28
DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SHOW THAT OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, ALTHOUGH THE POLEWARD
CHANNEL HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY. SOME SLIGHT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AS TC 06S TRACKS OVER A TONGUE OF HIGHER SSTS, HOWEVER,
SHIPS INDICATES VWS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION BY TAU
24. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BERGUITTA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN A NEAR STEADY INTENSITY AROUND 100 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT VALUES WILL FLUCTUATE IF AN ERC DOES
OCCUR. BEYOND TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND DECLINING OCEANIC SUPPORT
WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE LATEST BEST TRACK INDICATES TC 06S HAS
BEGUN TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE GFS INITIALIZATION
INDICATING A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 06S
BUILDING MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARNING
AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL BERGUITTA TURNS SOUTHWARD
AND BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR NEAR TAU 96. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS WATER, AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS REMAINED LOW FOR
SEVERAL CYCLES, WITH THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALONG-TRACK
DIRECTION. DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z,
162100Z AND 170300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REFERENCE TO 09S
CORRECTED TO 06S AND WARNING FREQUENCY UPDATED TO SIX HOURLY IN
REMARKS SECTIONS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.0S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.1S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.9S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.5S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND CYCLONE WITH A CLOUD FILLED RAGGED
EYE FEATURE. A 160504Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THE STRUCTURE WEAKENED
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 AND A 160249Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 97 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK POINT
SOURCE POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER POINT SOURCE OFFSET
TO THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SECONDARY POINT SOURCE ARE
BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF
TC 06S, BUT NOT TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. HOWEVER, THIS INTERACTION
WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS OUTFLOW IS
FURTHER RESTRICTED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, CAUSING TC 06S
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28 CELSIUS), AND
CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT TC STRENGTH WINDS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BELOW
APPROXIMATELY 25 DEGREES SOUTH SSTS BEGIN TO DROP CONSIDERABLY. TC
06S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS UNDER A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH RIDGES TO BOTH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MERGING WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. THE NEW RIDGE PATTERN WILL STEER TC 06S ON A
COURSE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 THEN SHIFT TO A TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AROUND TAU 96
TC 06S WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY WITH ECMWF, GFS, JGSM, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ALL CLOSELY GROUPED TOGETHER THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A TRACK IMPACTING
BOTH MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARD
THESE SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z,
170300Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.7S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.4S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.4S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.8S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.5S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.0S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 60.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE OVERCAST CLOUDS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 161157Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE
SYSTEM SEVERELY WEAKENED ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON
MULTIAGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO
T5.0 AND A 160503Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK POINT SOURCE POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER
POINT SOURCE OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE
SECONDARY POINT SOURCE ARE BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE OUTFLOW ON THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF TC 06S, BUT NOT TO A SIGNIFICANT
DEGREE. THIS INTERACTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
KEEPING OUTFLOW SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28 CELSIUS), AND COMBINED
WITH OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN TC 06S AT AN
INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TC 06S
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE WILL STEER TC 06S ON A COURSE WEST-SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 72 THEN SHIFT TO A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120 AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS TC 06S TRACKS BELOW
25 DEGREES SOUTH, SSTS BEGIN TO DROP CONSIDERABLY AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. AROUND TAU 96 TC 06S WILL BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY, WITH ALL
MEMBERS OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CLOSELY GROUPED TOGETHER
THROUGH TAU 48. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 60.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 60.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.8S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.6S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.8S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.1S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.2S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 29.7S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 34.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 60.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AROUND TC 06S, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 161734Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
80 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES
OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS SOME DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO TC 06S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER TC 06S GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. TC
06S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR. TC 06S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.8S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.0S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.4S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.1S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.9S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.8S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 60.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND PERSISTENT, NEARLY SYMMETRIC,
CONVECTION AROUND TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
162310Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A POORLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND FMEE AND A CI OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM FIMP. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS PRESENT.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR IS CONTINUING TO
WRAP INTO TC 06S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO
28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC 06S SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72.
TC 06S WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHWARD BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 06S WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO
THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND
180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 60.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 60.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.0S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.4S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.8S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.7S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 31.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.8S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 59.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A DENSE OVERCAST
LAYER OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A 170528Z METOP-
A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC NEAR THE EDGE OF SWATH AND THE
CORRESPONDING 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTING WEAK CONVECTION EMANATING
FROM THE CENTER SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD FEED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE ALSO
WARM AROUND 28 CELSIUS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXTENSION PROTRUDING WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF TC 06S. THE RIDGE EXTENSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND GUIDE TC 06S ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR
THROUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO
SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AROUND 70 KNOTS WITH MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AROUND TAU 72 A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT THE TRACK TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
INDUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY CONTRIBUTING
TO A WEAKENING TREND. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS IT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NARROW MARGIN OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF TC
06S, RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LAST 24 HOURS THAN
EXPECTED, SOLUTIONS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
TRAJECTORY OVER THE ISLANDS OF MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z,
172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 59.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 59.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.4S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.7S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.1S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.7S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 28.3S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.7S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
TO THE WEST WITH WEAKENING BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 170931Z 89GHZ AMSR2
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEAR POINT SOURCE
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A STRONG POLEWARD FEED INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE JET. EASTERLIES ALOFT FROM AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST HAVE
STARTED TO IMPINGE UPON THE EASTERN OUTFLOW OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS
AND THEREBY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EASTERN SSTS IN THE
AREA ARE ALSO WARM AROUND 28 CELSIUS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A STRONG RIDGE
EXTENSION PROTRUDING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF TC 06S. THE RIDGE
EXTENSION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS GUIDING TC 06S ON A TRACK
MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE AND SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AROUND 65
KNOTS WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOMETIME AFTER
TAU 48 A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ERODE
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT THE TRACK TO SOUTH
THEN SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. INTERACTION WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INDUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKENING TREND. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT ACCELERATES
SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A NARROW MARGIN OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. OVERALL THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z,
180900Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.5S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.1S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.0S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.4S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 59.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHIELD OF RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
A 171715Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND A 1758Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THESE ASCAT PASSES, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
ESTIMATES. TC 06S IS TURNING POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A REORIENTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72
AND COMPLETING BY TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEADY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
UNFAVORABLE, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXERT COMPETING
INFLUENCES. MARGINAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE MEDIUM TO
EXTENDED-RANGE AS THE TC 06S TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT RECEIVES OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC
SUPPORT AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CURRENT, HIGH-
CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL
TRACKERS, WHICH REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.2S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.6S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.2S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.7S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION, AND INTO THE CENTER, OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 172258Z SSMI IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THIS SSMI IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY AND AUTOMATED, SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
REORIENTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THIS RIDGE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 72
AND TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMPETES WITH THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN
THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED-RANGE AS THE LLCC TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER
AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT RECEIVES
OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC SUPPORT DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
CURRENT, HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS
MODEL TRACKERS, WHICH REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z,
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 57.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 57.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.1S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.5S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.1S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 31.5S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180526Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO A LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THIS GMI IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW
RESPECTIVELY. TC BERGUITTA IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY RE-ORIENTING AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND
THE RIDGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE (ETT) BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
ENHANCED BY THAT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.8S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.8S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.3S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.0S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 34.1S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS OCCLUDING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180907Z AMSR2 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WRAPS INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THIS AMSR2 IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, EVEN IMPROVING IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
SLIGHTLY AS 06S MOVES AWAY FROM MAURITIUS. TC BERGUITTA IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY RE-ORIENTING AND
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AROUND THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND AFTER TAU 12 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYSTEM SPEED AROUND TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.8S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.3S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.8S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 33.1S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 35.5S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY FROM LA REUNION AND A 1533Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER FEATURE, AND THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THESE SOURCES AS WELL AS A 1737Z ASCAT
PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY, AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHLTY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH WARMING CONVECTIVE
TOPS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMING THE WEAKENING
TREND. TC 06S IS TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER TC 06S HAS RESULTED IN DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY, AND ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE, INDUCING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-
TERM. BY TAU 48, TC 06S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND
FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ENABLE THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AROUND 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z
AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.7S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.2S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.1S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.6S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 53.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
LAYER COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES 190000Z INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 182108Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS
DECREASING IN DIAMETER. THE TRACK CONTINUES TO TURN POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC, EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE FEATURE TRACK WIND DATA, IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 06S TRACKS
POLEWARD. THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM. BY TAU 48, TC 06S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AROUND
45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.7S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.9S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.0S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.8S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST LAYER OCCLUDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 190228Z WSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 24 AND RECURVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 12,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND AROUND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TC BERGUITTA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. FAVORABLE INTERACTION
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGHOUT ETT WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OF AROUND 40 KNOTS BY THE COMPLETION OF ETT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.4S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.0S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 34.7S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 191157Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH
POINT 06S WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AROUND TAU 12, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
(<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC BERGUITTA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE DUE TO FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGHOUT ETT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.7S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 33.2S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 34.0S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 50.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION WHICH IS STARTING
TO BECOME LESS INTENSE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 191810Z
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE, NEAR 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S
IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN TRACK
SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. AFTER
TAU 12 TC 06S WILL ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26
DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
TAU 48. TC 06S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36
AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 27.9S 50.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 50.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.6S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.6S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 50.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S IS
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
200015Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE REMAINING
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) FROM FMEE, T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 06S IS
BEGINNING TO TRACK OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, NEAR
25 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR.
THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 AND DECREASE
TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC 06S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 12 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND
210300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 29.5S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.1S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON A BULLSEYE 200527Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE MAXIMUM WINDS EXPANDING OUT TO APPROXIMATELY
80-100NM FROM THE LLCC WITH A SOLID REGION OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING RAPIDLY AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST INTERACTS
WITH TC 06S. TC 06S HAS ALSO MOVED INTO AN AREA OF COLD (24 CELSIUS)
WATER, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD, RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 30
FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_hilda.htm | Updated: 24 January 2018 |