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Tropical Cyclone CEBILE Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 260130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 81.5E TO 12.5S 86.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 82.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
252250Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION ABOVE A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 91S
IS CURRENTLY UNDER HIGH (25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT VALUES
DROP OFF RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH, WHERE THE SYSTEM IS HEADING.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STRONG AND BEGINNING TO FORM A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT 91S REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM
TRAVELS TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF NOT, DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATER TAUS AFTER 91S ROUNDS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260121ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 11.8S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.8S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.6S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.6S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.6S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 85.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 777 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL MASS OF CONVECTION COVERING UP A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 262147z MHS 89 GHZ SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING UNDER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. IN ADDITION, A PARTIAL
261633Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
CONVECTIVE MASS WITH FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL SHEAR ADJACENT TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT TAU 24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE BUILDING IN TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 07S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24
DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
PAST TAU 96, TC 07S WILL SLOW DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260130).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.1S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.5S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.8S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.8S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 84.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE POSITION HAS BEEN
RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION
BASED ON A REASSESSMENT OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, THIS RELOCATION HAS NOT RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07S HAS
TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THIS PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TC 07S WILL TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE,
RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH NAVGEM AND THE UKMET MODEL DEPICT
TC 07S BASICALLY CONTINUING POLEWARD, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH NEVER BECOMING FULLY ESTABLISHED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. ALL OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN
FOLLOWED BY NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
ALTHOUGH OFFSET SLIGHTLY FROM THE LOWER PROBABILITY NAVGEM AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.8S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.8S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.5S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.1S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.4S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINED A BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 270858Z 85 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AND
FROM THE CURRENT STORM MOTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) NORTHERLY VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY
STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE VWS
VECTOR. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THIS
STR EXTENSION BUILDS. AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST
COMPETES FOR STEERING. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS POLEWARD, PROMOTING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU
120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, IT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS
TOWARD THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LENDING AN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z,
280900Z AND 281500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.8S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.0S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.2S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.4S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 84.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION SYMMETRICALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 07S, WITH OVERSHOOTING
TOPS NEAR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND STORM MOTION IS
DETERMINED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AS
WELL AS A 271611Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS OF 45 KNOTS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WARM
WATERS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 DEGREES C, WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) THAT IS
DECREASING ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED TO THE EAST, BUT IS GOOD IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. AS THE
VWS DECREASES, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS
WHILE BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS TO ITS SOUTH.
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
COMPLICATED AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR, BUT GLOBAL
MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS TURNS TC 07S TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH
AT TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GREATER SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.9S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.6S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.1S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.5S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.8S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 787 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING SYMMETRICALLY AROUND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 272224Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION OF TC 07S HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY-STATE FOR THE LAST 6
HOURS, AND GIVEN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER, CONTINUED STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS DECREASES IN THE COMING DAY. THE SYSTEM TOOK AN
UNEXPECTED JOG TOWARD THE SOUTH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AROUND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 96, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT DIVERGE
GREATLY BEYOND TAU 72, SO THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 84.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.5S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.4S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.0S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.3S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.6S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 774 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A DIMPLE FEATURE - PRELUDE TO AN EYE
AS IT RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AMBIGUITY PRODUCT DERIVED FROM A BULLSEYE 280415Z ASCAT PASS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T4.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY
IMPROVED AS IT MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS AND WAS ENHANCED BY
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ITS STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE
VWS VECTOR. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK,
STEERED BY THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY
AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE
WILL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. TC CEBILE WILL PEAK AT 105
KNOTS NEAR TAU 96 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO RE-INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT IN THE MID TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, LENDING AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z, AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 83.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 83.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.0S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.8S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.3S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.8S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.3S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.2S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 741 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND HAS DEVELOPED A 15-NM
RAGGED EYE. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STILL UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
NORTHERLY VWS CAUSING THE EYE TO BE TILTED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 181101Z SSMIS PARTIAL
MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, STEERED BY THE
STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS VWS
DECREASES AND GOOD OUTFLOW PERSISTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE
WILL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. THE STR TO THE EAST WILL
EVENTUALLY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. TC CEBILE
WILL PEAK AT 125 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 36-48 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO
RE-INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE NEAR TO MID TERM BUT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 82.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 82.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.6S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.1S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.4S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.8S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.6S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
INDICATES THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS STALLED OR ENDED,
AS THE EYE FILLED. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE EYE MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM. A 290040Z GPM 89 GHZ PASS
STILL SHOWS A PIN-HOLE MICROWAVE EYE WITH GOOD SPIRAL BANDING OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITIES REMAIN T6.0, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 110 KNOTS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEGRADATION OF CORE CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS
LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS); HOWEVER, OUTFLOW HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE WANING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS CEBILE HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR 110-115 KNOTS BEFORE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEGINS AS OCEANIC
SUPPORT BEGINS TO DROP. TC 07S IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. CEBILE IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON
A MORE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, A COMPETING STR TO THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN SLOWING FORWARD MOTION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN STR, ALLOWING A POLEWARD TURN.
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A BI-FURCATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH THE
UKMET MODELS INDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST IS PLACED WITH THE WESTERN SOLUTION SET BECAUSE DATA DOES
NOT SUPPORT A STRONG RE-CURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST
TRACK WAS ADJUSTED FURTHER WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
ADJUST FOR THE EASTERN OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE SHARP BI-FURCATION IN
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND
300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.9S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.3S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.4S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.4S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.9S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 731 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE 0N A
COMPACT AND SUPER-DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 290353Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE (15-KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) ALONG-TRACK SSTS. THIS DYNAMIC
BALANCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MAINTAINING
THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, A COMPETING STEERING STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TRIGGER A
SOUTHWESTWARD RECURVE AS THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS STAGE, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
CAUSING GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
SPREAD OUT AT THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE RECARVATURE WITH EGRR AS THE LEFTMOST
OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z,
300900Z, AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 81.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 81.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.2S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.4S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.4S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.5S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.0S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.2S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 81.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE AND A
COMPACT, ALBEIT, VERY DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 291048Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T6.0 AND T5.5,
RESPECTIVELY, AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE
(15-KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C)
ALONG-TRACK SSTS. THIS DYNAMIC BALANCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MAINTAINING THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS.
AFTERWARD, A COMPETING STEERING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND DRIVES TC 07S TO RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING THIS STAGE, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
CAUSING GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
SPREAD OUT AT THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE RECURVATURE WITH JGSM AND AFUM GOING FOR AN
EARLY RECURVATURE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JGSM AND
AFUM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.9S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.2S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.4S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.7S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 80.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A VERY SMALL, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 6 NM INNER EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EIR EYE. 291346Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGES
AT 36 AND 39 GHZ INDICATED THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC), WITH THE COMPACT 6 NM INNER EYE SURROUNDED BY A 65 NM
OUTER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS IN
LIGHT OF THE ONGOING ERC AS WELL AS MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T5.3 (97 KNOTS AND A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 108 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC CEBILE LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LIGHT (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND HAS MAINTAINED ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A DEEP
MOISTURE FIELD, WHILE TRANSITING IN AN AREA OF A HIGH SSTS OF 28-29
DEG CELSIUS). TC 07S IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A COL AREA BETWEEN A
DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY WESTWARD, RESULTING IN THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. TC CEBILE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND NER THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 72, A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STR TO THE
SOUTH, ALLOWING A FAIRLY SHARP POLEWARD TURN. DYNAMICAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL TRACK, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS
INDICATE A TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHILE THE NVGM AND COTC
MODELS SHOW A TURN BEYOND 72 HOURS WELL TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST
IS PLACED NEAR THE GROUPING OF THE U.S. MODELS AND WELL WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A NEAR-
TERM RECURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. AS NOTED ABOVE, TC CEBILE IS
UNDERGOING AN ERC, LEADING TO SOME NEAR-TERM WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE ERC IS COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TC CEBILE
WILL BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY
FAVORABLE AND THERE IS LITTLE TO WARRANT A DROP IN INTENSITY OTHER
THAN NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS AND FUTURE POTENTIAL ERC'S. BEYOND TAU 72,
COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE
SOUTH, AND LARGE SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z,
301500Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.0S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.0S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.3S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.8S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A 60NM EYE FEATURE WITH SYMMETRICAL RADIAL BANDING CONVERGING INTO
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE ABNORMALLY LARGE EYE FEATURE LEFT BEHIND AFTER
COMPLETION OF A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT OR AROUND 100 TO 105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED ALOFT
OVER THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS WITH
MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO BOTH
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING
WESTWARD AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A RESULTANT
WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES.
BEYOND TAU 72 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE
SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WITH THE DOMINANT NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMING
STEERING AND SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE PHILOSOPHY. JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER EARLIER WITH A RESULTANT TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST HAPPENING SOONER. THE REMAINING MODELS IN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOW A PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.9S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.0S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.2S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.6S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 60NM EYE FEATURE AND RADIAL BANDING
CONVERGING INTO A STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. A 301035Z 91GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
EYE FEATURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE ABNORMALLY LARGE EYE FEATURE LEFT BEHIND AFTER COMPLETION OF
A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE STEADILY INCREASING TO T5.5/5.5 (102 KNOTS) FORMING
THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT OR AROUND 100 TO
105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW
WITH A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS WITH MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC
07S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO BOTH THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING WESTWARD, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A RESULTANT WESTWARD TRACK
FOR TC 07S, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. BEYOND TAU 72 A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WITH THE
DOMINANT NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMING STEERING AND SHIFTING THE
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE NEW
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER COOLER SSTS. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE PHILOSOPHY. JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW A MUCH SLOWER
WESTWARD ADVANCE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING THE TURN
SOUTHEAST. THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTWARD
DISPLACEMENT BEFORE MAKING THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND
311500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.8S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.8S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.1S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.8S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.1S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 78.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A MASSIVE EYE NEARLY 60NM
ACROSS AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING INTO A STRONG
CONVECTIVE CORE. IT HAD BEEN EXPECTED THAT THE EYE DIAMETER WOULD
HAVE DECREASED AFTER COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) YESTERDAY BUT THE EYE HAS REMAINED EXTREMELY WIDE. HOWEVER,
THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK AGAIN. A 301647Z 89GHZ AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REMAIN IN PLACE, COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110
KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0
(115 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN
LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.6 (102
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINMENT AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATELY HIGH OHC VALUES
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ROBUST BOTH
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DUE TO A POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S LIES IN A COL AREA TRAPPED BETWEEN
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENTIRE RIDGE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S THROUGH THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL ERODE THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING TC 07S
TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD. BEYOND TAU 72, THE NER REORIENTS TO A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING FACTOR, LEADING TC 07S TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 07S
TRANSITS THROUGH THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR-TERM, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY NEAR
115 KNOTS WITH SMALL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ERC.
AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD BEYOND TAU 72, IT WILL UNDERGO MORE
RAPID WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES COOLER WATERS, VWS INCREASES AND
OUTFLOW SHIFTS TO A SINGLE CHANNEL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY, BUT THERE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN.
JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW A MUCH SLOWER WESTWARD ADVANCE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING THE TURN SOUTHEAST AND ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OUTLIERS. THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A QUICKER FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH TAU 48, LEADING TO A TURN FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.1S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.5S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.2S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.6S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.9S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 77.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE
WITH A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS
SOME PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A
NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED TO A MUCH
BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE.
CONTINUING THE TREND NOTICED IN THE EARLIER WARNING, THE EYE HAS
BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MEASURED AT 31NM.
A 310031Z 91GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SOLID RING OF
IMPRESSIVE AND INTENSE CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC
AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND
T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.9
(112 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING
FURTHER NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO SOME PRESSURE ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. AT THE MOMENT, THIS
PRESSURE IS BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING
TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN
THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR
TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AS THERE ARE NO
HINDRANCES TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, VWS BEGINS TO
INCREASE AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN LEADS A
SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL
ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A TURN A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE EGRR AND
AFUM MODELS ARE THE ONLY REMAINING EASTERN OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK
IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE CONCENTRATION
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. WHILE COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL
TRACK, THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 77.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.0S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.5S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.2S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.5S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.6S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.4S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE, A VERY SHARP
EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED
TO A MUCH BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE EYE SIZE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ABOUT 30NM OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 310356Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE
EYE DIAMETER AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION SEEN IN
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115
KNOTS BASED ON A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115
KNOTS) THAT IS SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH
A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE
OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO A NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM
RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR
TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL
ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. MOST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SMOOTH BUT TIGHTER TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAN SHOWN IN EARLIER RUNS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR TO BUT
JUST SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z,
010300Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.0S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.4S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 77.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A CLEAR EYE FEATURE, A VERY
SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER
AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE EYE
FEATURE HAS GRADUALLY CONTRACTED FROM 30 NM TO 25 NM OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. A 310935Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE EYE
DIAMETER AND INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF 108 KNOTS. TC
07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT
INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO THE
NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY
MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE
PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36,
THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24,
VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE
RECURVE, WITH A 100 NM SPREAD AT TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED
NEAR TO BUT JUST SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, LEADING
TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 77.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 77.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.6S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.0S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.2S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.0S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIX FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 07S HAS WEAKENED VERY SLIGHTLY
WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SHIFTING AND WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EXERT AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN
POLEWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK STEADILY POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW STEERING
RIDGE. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF
POTENTIAL OCEAN SURFACE COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING BY THE SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM, ENABLING TC 07S TO APPROXIMATELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 AS TC
07S PASSES OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE BEGIN BY TAU 120 AS TC
07S INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THERE IS
RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD AMONG FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
HOWEVER, SPREAD INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE MODELS DEPICT
VARYING IMPACTS OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW ON THE STEERING PATTERN,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 76.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 76.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.8S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.7S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT, HIGH-CONFIDENCE POSITION IS
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY
OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
AND DEEPENING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR 25 NM EYE, EVIDENT IN
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, REFLECTS A RENEWED
INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S IS TRACKING
SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SHIFTING AND WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS, AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON
STORM MOTION. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY
EASTWARD AND POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW, NEAR-
EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TC 07S TRACKS OVER VERY WARM WATER AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE. SUBSEQUENTLY,
SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT
LESS CONDUCIVE AND THE OCEAN SURFACE POTENTIALLY COOLS A BIT DUE TO
UPWELLING INDUCED BY THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING TREND
WILL ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48 AS TC 07S MOVES OVER COOLER WATER, AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE BEGIN BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THERE IS RELATIVELY SMALL
SPREAD AMONG FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, SPREAD
INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE MODELS DEPICT VARYING IMPACTS
OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW ON THE STEERING PATTERN, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.9S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.3S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.2S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 23-NM EYE AND DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 010433Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28C. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. IT IS NOW POISED TO
RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS AND ASSUMES
STEERING. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. AFTERWARD, AS
VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE, TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY TAU
120, CEBILE WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS THE
MID-LATITUDES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE
LEFT OUTLIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z,
020300Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED 18-NM EYE AND DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WOBBLING MOTION IN THE EYE
FEATURE AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 011108Z AMSU-B
PASS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO ERRATIC MOTION AND THE LIKELY TILTED
VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS.
ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 28C. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO STEERING INFLUENCES: ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING NER TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS, THE NER IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE
SOUTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND
HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE, TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY
TAU 120, CEBILE WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS THE
MID-LATITUDES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE
LEFT OUTLIER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT STORM
MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z, AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MUCH MORE RAGGED. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 1703 ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS
AND SUPPORTED BY THE ACCOMPANYING AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.8 (112 KNOTS). TC 07S HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A
POINT SOURCE AT 200MB AND HIGH SST VALUES. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST RECEDES TO THE WEST AND AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE
ON STORM MOTION AND DRIVE TC 07S TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
24 AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES TO THE NER. AFTER TAU
72 THE NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF TC 07S,
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN STORM MOTION AND A SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE
STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF OCEAN
SURFACE COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING. BEYOND TAU 12 HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES
INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE DISSIPATES AND IS REPLACED BY GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS PREDICTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR BY
AROUND TAU 120, HOWEVER NEW DATA INDICATES THAT THIS IS UNLIKELY.
NEAR TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE
OF A DEEP LAYER STR, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING IT OFF FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGHS AND THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, ALLOWING
TC 07S TO MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSITING OVER COOLER WATERS AT THIS POINT, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A SLOW DISSIPATION OVER WATER VICE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. ECMWF, THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE AND CTCX ARE THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIERS, SHOWING A STRONGER
INFLUENCE OF THE NER EXTENSION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST,
THOUGH THEY TOO AGREE ON THE GENERAL PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY TRACK BY
TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN
AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD AMONG
FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASED
SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z, AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.2S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.9S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.5S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 60 NM EYE AND WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE IN THE 0202044Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B PASS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
STILL WELL ORGANIZED, THE EIR LOOP SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW
END OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OF T6.0
(115 KNOTS) FROM KNES TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE
WEAKENING TREND: BOTH FIXES HAVE DECREASED IN CURRENT INTENSITY AND
FORECAST T-NUMBER FROM THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS
(5-15 KNOTS), MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES (28-29
DEG C), AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE
NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WANING, WITH TC 07S ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS AND LOWER SSTS AFTER TAU 48. TC 07S
WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120.
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS CAPTURE THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTERN TRACK IN THE
NEAR TERM, WITH A LATER POLEWARD TURN, WITH MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT
IN SPEED AND SPREAD IN LATER TAUS. HWRF IS A PARTICULAR EASTERN
OUTLIER AND MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY OF TC 07S LONGER THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS.
IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 75.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 75.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.1S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.9S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.5S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 75.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 659 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A 35-NM RAGGED EYE EVEN AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY UNRAVEL AND DECAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 021057Z AMSU-B PASS WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MSI EYE POSITION THAT IS TILTED WESTWARD FROM
THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW
END OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.4 TO
T6.0 AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE STILL WARM AT 28-29 DEG C. TC 07S WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF THE NER TO
THE NORTHEAST UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWARD AS THE NER BUILDS AND EXTENDS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS COOL,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING AND OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.5S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.3S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.2S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.4S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.1S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.3S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.5S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 76.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 681 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT
WITH RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 021642Z
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION SITUATED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
PAST SIX HOURS SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND A 27 NM EYE,
LIKELY RESULTING FROM UPPER-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, TURNING INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AFTER TAU 24. LOW, BUT
INCREASING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER SHOULD
ENABLE TC 07S TO WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A STEADIER WEAKENING TREND. THE
CURRENT FORECAST DELAYS DISSIPATION UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 AS
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW SPIN-DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE. DESPITE SOME SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED
RANGE, NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 76.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.6S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.6S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.5S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 76.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 698 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A
022331Z GMI IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF RECENT MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 07S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN THE
MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO THE SOUTH AND SPINS DOWN SLOWLY. DESPITE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES, NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.1S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.3S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.7S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.1S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.3S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 28.9S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY A 030353Z
METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO
T5.5 (77 TO 102 KTS). MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EYE
FEATURE HAS FILLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE AREA
OF CONVECTION IS NOTICEABLY BROADER IN THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRCLE. TC
07S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT CONTINUES
TO RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WHICH
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST JUST POLEWARD OF TC 07S
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MORE GRADUALLY AS THE CIRCULATION
REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO THE
SOUTH AND SPINS DOWN SLOWLY. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES,
NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO BUT JUST SLOWER THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z,
032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 77.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 77.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.5S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.7S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.0S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.0S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 28.6S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 78.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON 031123Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
MICROWAVE EYE. THE INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KTS) AND SUPPORTED BY
AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 87 KTS.
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOTICEABLY DEEPER
AND BROADER IN THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO STRONG DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW IN THIS REGION. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TC 07S
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS
IT CONTINUES TO RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE WHICH GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST JUST POLEWARD OF
TC 07S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU
72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MORE GRADUALLY AS THE
CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES AFTER TAU
72, NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z,
040900Z AND 041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.0S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.9S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.3S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 78.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 803 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CORE
CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND
FMEE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF A
031621Z AMSU 89 GHZ PASS WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER, AS
WELL AS A 031544Z OSCAT CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE FALLING DATA-T
NUMBERS. THE MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE IS 75
KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED OSCAT PASS PROVIDED INPUTS TO UPDATE THE
WIND RADII IN ALL QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CEBILE
IS NEARLY UNDER A POINT SOURCE, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER,
SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR DEPICTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ARE NOW A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A
SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A
WESTERN DEFLECTION. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS BASED
ON THE CURRENT TREND AND NOTING THE RAPID DISSIPATION INDICATED BY
SHIPS DUE TO HIGH (30-40 KNOT) VWS AND COLD SSTS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
CEBILE MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THAT TIME. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG
THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z, AND 042100Z. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.3S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.1S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.3S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.0S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 79.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED CENTER THAT IS DISPLACED
SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE LATEST AMSU CROSS
SECTION FROM 032159Z INDICATES A SHARP WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WARM CORE. HOWEVER, A 040023Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE
LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY INTACT, WITH A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND
KNES, AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AGENCY T4.0
(65 KNOTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE NOTED LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE OUTFLOW HAS
RELAXED, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND SHIPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES VWS VALUES ARE OVER 30 KNOTS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
EIR DEPICTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW A MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST,
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTERN DEFLECTION. THERE IS A SHARP
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS
FAVOR A SLOW DISSIPATION, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES FROM GFS,
NAVGEM, AND HWRF ALL INDICATE 30-40 KNOT VWS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS ALONG TRACK WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE RAPID DISSIPATION SCENARIO INDICATED BY SHIPS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
CEBILE MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THAT TIME. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG
THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z, AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.0S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.6S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.4S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 28.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 79.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 899 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH DEEP
BANDING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTERN SIDE. THIS
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LATEST
AMSU CROSS SECTION FROM 040200Z INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WARM CORE. HOWEVER, A 040054Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT
THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY INTACT, WITH A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 040332Z
METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
TO 65 KNOTS, BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS), HEDGED HIGHER
BY A 040055Z AUTOMATED SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS AND THE
040332Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF GREATER THAN 60 KNOT
WINDS. THE VWS ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
TO A SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTERN DEFLECTION.
THERE IS A SHARP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
DISSIPATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS FAVOR A SLOW DISSIPATION, WHILE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LESS AGGRESSIVE, CALLING FOR DISSIPATION BY
TAU 96.THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND
050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 20.9S 80.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 80.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.1S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.6S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.9S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.3S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.8S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 80.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 941 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTERN
SIDE. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION FROM 041000Z INDICATES THAT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE HAS OCCURRED. A 041109Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO
ERODE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE, SO THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLEAR
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INTENSITY HAS STEADILY WEAKENED AND
IS DOWN TO 60 KNOTS, BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0 (45 TO 65 KNOTS)
INFLUENCED BY A 041031Z AUTOMATED SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATE OF 68
KNOTS. THE VWS ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE EXTENSION OF THIS STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07S, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS A SHARP
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS
FAVOR ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING BY TAU 72, WHILE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE FAVORS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, CALLING FOR
DISSIPATION SOME TIME AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE
NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
ADDED STORM STATE AS DISSIPATING AND DISSIPATED AT TAU 72 AND 96,
RESPECTIVELY.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 80.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 80.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.0S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.4S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.7S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.7S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.4S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 80.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH,
EXPOSING A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
ENABLING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION FIX. A 041644Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN AREA OF 50 TO 55 KNOT WINDS
SURROUNDING THE LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUBSEQUENTLY SET AT 55 KNOTS. TC 07S IS NOW
EXPERIENCING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35
KNOTS), WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AROUND AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST BEYOND TAU 48 AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN POLEWARD OF TC 07S. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR AND COOLING SST, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST BY AROUND TAU 72. STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE RAPID DISSIPATION THAN
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 22.3S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.7S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.9S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.0S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.8S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.5S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1047 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGHLY SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED ACCORDING TO THE
BROAD LLCC IN THE SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 042224Z AND
050041Z. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TC 07S, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS.
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS HIGH (OVER 30 KNOTS). STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE RAPID
DISSIPATION THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH OF TC 07S. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF THE TURN, THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z,
052100Z, AND 060300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.2S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.4S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.3S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.8S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.9S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1083 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGHLY SHEARED SYSTEM WITH AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER
30 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LATEST AMSU
CROSS SECTION FROM 050200Z INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
ITS WARM CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TC 07S, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS,
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO
T3.0 (30 TO 45 KNOTS). THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL 050312Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS SHOWING SEVERAL 50 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
VWS REMAINS HIGH (OVER 30 KNOTS). STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE RAPID DISSIPATION THAN THAT OF
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS NOW BEING STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTH BY AN EXTENSION OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THERE IS OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 23.9S 81.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 81.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.0S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.0S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.6S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.8S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.0S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 81.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1136 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
STARTING TO TUCK UNDER BANDING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO THE
POLEWARD SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER 30 KNOTS OF
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LATEST GFS AND NAVGEM
BASED CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING
ITS WARM CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 051055Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH ERODED STRUCTURE IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS MOSTLY INTACT,
THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND IS ASSESSED AT
45 KNOTS. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN UNDERSHOOTING INTENSITY
AND RANGE FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS), WHILE A 051018Z
CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS 59 KNOTS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VWS REMAINS HIGH (OVER
30 KNOTS). STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A MORE RAPID DISSIPATION THAN THAT OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW BEING
STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTH BY AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN DUE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THERE IS STILL GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 81.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.9S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.3S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.4S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1212 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL
CYCLONE THAT IS STRONGLY SHEARED FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN A RATHER STEADY-STATE STRUCTURE OVER
THE PAST DAY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. A 052226Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EQUATORWARD
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SINCE THE 051543Z OSCAT PASS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 40 KNOTS. TC 07S CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AS IT IS STEERED AROUND AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE,
DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON THIS TURN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TOWARD THE SOUTH AROUND TAU 12 TO 24. NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS STRONG (APPROXIMATELY 40 KNOTS), WITH
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES C), SUGGESTING THAT
THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION BY AROUND TAU
48. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 25.6S 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.4S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.7S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.7S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 81.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1231 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT
SATELLITE FIX FROM PGTW AND A 06334Z MMHS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND EARLIER OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. TC 07S IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS THROUGH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLY LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT SHALLOWER BANDING IS STILL
TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH TC
07S HAS DEVELOPED SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM,
SATELLITE SOUNDING DATA AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING A WARM-CORE, TROPICAL STRUCTURE FOR THE TIME
BEING. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS OCCURRING BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z,
070300Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 26.2S 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.7S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.8S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.7S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 81.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1475 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEGREE OF WRAP AROUND A
WELL-DEFINED AND PARTLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 061151Z 37 GHZ GPM PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN
DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED CHARACTERISTIC OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH TC 07S IS TRACKING IN AN
AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VWS AND COOL SSTS (26 C), A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN
EXTENSION OF THE NER TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE NER
IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE AND THE STR BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL
ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 07S WESTWARD. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE DISSIPATION BY TAU
36, POSSIBLY SOONER. CONCURRENTLY, TC CEBILE IS TRANSITIONING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND
ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN, LENDING AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.1S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.2S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.1S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.5S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1280 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVERTHE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS TAKING ON SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED
LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH A 061656Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND A 061658Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS BASED OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND IS ABOVE MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK AND SUB-TROPICAL CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS). THE INTENSITY IS SET 10 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO THE SYSTEMS ASYMMETRICAL AND WEAK CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE CAUSING UNDER ESTIMATES USING SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE AREA OF STRONG (>30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALLOWING IT TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 07S IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE NER WILL RECEDE AND
A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. THE BUILDING STR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
TURN TO THE WEST BY TAU 24 AND TRACK DUE WEST UNTIL AFTER TAU 36
WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR.
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, TC CEBILE
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD AND AN ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD TURN IN THE TRACK WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SUGGESTED THE WESTERN TURN FOR THE PREVIOUS FOUR
FORECAST CYCLES HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST DUE TO A DELAY IN THE BUILDING STR. THE DELAY IN THE
WESTWARD TURN LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 81.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 81.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.1S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.8S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.8S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.4S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH WEAK CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A 062159Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS BASED ON A 061658Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE AND REMAINS ABOVE
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK AND SUB-TROPICAL CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DISSIPATION,
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE 50 KNOT INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (>30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS BEING
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY TC 07S IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED
TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE NER WILL BE REPLACED AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE BY A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND TRACK
SOUTHWARD. TC CEBILE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ALONG TRACK SSTS DROP
AND VWS INCREASES, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A SYSTEM WITH
AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND AN ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z AND 080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 26.9S 81.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 81.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.8S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.5S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.8S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 81.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1430 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
A DEFINED LLC EVEN AS ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CONTINUED TO ELONGATE
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON A 070412Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 07S
IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND WILL TRACK ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND EVEN
STRONGER (30-KNOT PLUS) VWS LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36,
POSSIBLY SOONER. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S IS UNDERGOING TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY ITS EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AND
ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER
AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. SOME
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE RE-INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 36 AS THE
CYCLONE RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND
080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 26.7S 80.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 80.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.3S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.3S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 80.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1384 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
A DEFINED, ALBEIT PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LLC EVEN AS ITS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE CONTINUED TO ELONGATE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG VWS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE
IN THE 071028Z 37 GHZ SSMIS PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT
THE INTACT NATURE OF THE LLC. TC 07S IS BEING STEERED BY THE STR TO
THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO COOLER
SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND EVEN STRONGER (30-KNOT PLUS) VWS LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S IS
UNDERGOING TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY ITS
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AND ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
SOME MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE RE-INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 24 AS
THE CYCLONE RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.3S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.1S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1248 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC
WITH AN ELONGATED MASS OF CONVECTION PRESSED TO THE EAST IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THIS ANIMATED EIR WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY A 071542Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING
45 KNOTS AS WELL AS A 071635Z CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 42 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN
UNREPRESENTATIVELY LOW AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST 72 HOURS DUE
TO A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VWS, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AGAINST STRONG (30-KNOT
PLUS) WESTERLY VWS LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY
TAU 36. CURRENT SSTS ARE BELOW 25C AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY (LESS
THAN 1C) AS 07S TRACKS WEST, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S IS STARTING TO
EXHIBIT SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS AS EVIDENCED BY ITS
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AND ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 26.3S 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 79.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 78.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1219 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED BUT FULLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH A MASS OF DISSIPATING CONVECTION SHEARED HEAVILY TO THE EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 072146Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
THAT A LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY BROADENED
AND ERODED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS ANIMATED EIR WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE STEADY
WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN CONVECTIVE AND LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE,
SUPPORTED BY A 071932Z CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATING 42 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN
UNREPRESENTATIVELY LOW AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST 72 HOURS DUE
TO A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING OVER 30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VWS AND IS TRACKING DIRECTLY
INTO THE SHEAR, STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH. CURRENT SSTS ARE BELOW 25C AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY (LESS
THAN 1C) AS 07S CONTINUES WEST, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S IS
EXHIBITING SOME SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS AS EVIDENCED BY
ITS EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AND ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 050
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 26.1S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.4S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.3S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 78.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1192 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED BUT FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALL OF THE CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07S HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM THE LLCC TOWARDS
THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 080600Z HIMAWARI
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE EXPOSED LLCC AND THE SHEARED
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A 080348Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 36 KNOTS BASED ON THE REMAINING
STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND THAT OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE
DISSIPATED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINAL, BETWEEN 25 TO
26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S WILL TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS. TC 07S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT DROPS TO AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 051//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 051
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 26.2S 77.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 77.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.8S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 76.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1177 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED AND DECAYING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 081141Z 89 GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH NO
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
BELOW A 080348Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 36 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONTINUING
DECAY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND THAT OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE
DISSIPATED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINAL, BETWEEN 25 TO
26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT
CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. TC 07S
WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AS IT DROPS TO AN INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 20 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_cebile.htm | Updated: 8 March 2018 |