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Tropical Cyclone DAHLIA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone DAHLIA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 109.7E TO 8.3S 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 109.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY
245NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261943Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A CURVED MASS OF CONVECTION SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER
A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 96S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND LIKELY TURN POLEWARD THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 280200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151Z NOV 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 270200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
65NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 109.7E TO 8.3S 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 109.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY
305NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION INTO A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 272031Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THAT 95S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DRIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290200Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REF AND AMPN
INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 290200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151Z NOV 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 280200)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280200). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 111.0E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 317NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
WEAKENED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. A 281941Z
AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AND LESS DISORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATESTHE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
INDICATE MINIMAL TO NO DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH POSSIBLE
REINTENSIFICATION IN A FEW DAYS AS THE LLCC TRACKS POLEWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS22 PGTW 290430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5S 100.7E TO 10.3S 107.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
290400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5S
101.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.4S 101.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 101.0E, APPROXIMATELY
300NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 282328Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
CENTER. A 290312Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS NUMEROUS 30-KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
(25 TO 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 96S WILL STEADILY
DEVELOP WHILE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300430Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 001
WTXS31 PGTW 300300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 8.9S 104.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 104.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 9.7S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.6S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.9S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.2S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.9S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.0S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 105.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 979 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 010300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 8.9S 106.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 106.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 9.7S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.6S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.8S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.1S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.1S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.1S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.8S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 106.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 924 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ESPECIALLY TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 300252Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE (30 KNOTS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(28-29 DEGREE CELSIUS). TC 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE
EAST, BUT WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN AND WILL TURN THE SYSTEM
ONCE AGAIN BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY AROUND TAU 48.
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW
FOR TC 01S TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY BEYOND TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.5S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.8S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.6S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.9S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 108.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, A
301132Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS
DISPLACED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 01S IS FORECAST
TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY
TAU 24 BUT OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, TC 01S WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA,
WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION AS TC DAHLIA APPROACHES THE LEARMONTH AREA. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z,
010900Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 108.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 108.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.4S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.9S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.4S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.2S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.2S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.9S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.7S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 108.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 837 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EVIDENT IN A 301636Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE. TC
01S CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE EAST, BUT THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS, GIVEN THE STEADY-STATE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINING AT T3.0. TC 01S IS
BEGINNING ITS TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) BUILDING OVER NORTHERN AUSTRLIA. AT LATER TAUS, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE EAST AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR. BEYOND TAU 72, COOL WATERS (SST LESS THAN 26C) WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, WITH DISSIPATION OVER WATER EXPECTED BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 9.7S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.1S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.4S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.0S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.8S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.7S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.9S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 109.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 811 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF DEEP BUT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OF TC 01S. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
USING A 302240Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS, GIVEN DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (KNES) TO T3.0 (PGTW), WITH SUPPORT FROM
A 302253Z WINDSAT PASS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE
SYSTEM (25 TO 30 KNOTS), SO ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, TC 01S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS
IT TRAVERSES THE COLDER WATERS OFF OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, SO THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.1S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.1S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.6S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.9S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.3S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.4S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 109.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
010232Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS, BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND BOTH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM (28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE (25 DEGREES CELSIUS)
BY TAU 72. TC 01S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. AS TC 01S
TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IT WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z, AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 10.5S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.0S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.2S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.0S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 011119Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS)FROM KNES AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 45 KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND
BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM (28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE (25 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AFTER TAU 72. TC 01S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWARD TURN. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100, 020300Z, 020900, AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.5S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.4S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.7S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.1S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.6S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.0S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 711 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 011410Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
WEAK LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES
AS WELL AS AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (51
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. TC 01S HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS AS IT SLOWLY BEGINS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. TC DAHLIA
WILL SLOWLY TURN TO A SOUTH, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU
24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-
WEST AXIS, ALLOWING TC 01S TO SHIFT TO AN EASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE
WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTER ABOUT TAU 60, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER WATERS (LESS THAN 26 DEG
CELSIUS), AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOSS OF ENERGY
SOURCE. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT,
THOUGH WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS AFTER TAU 72 WITH ECMWF AND
ITS ENSEMBLE TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS OPEN
WATERS, WHILE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN TURN THE SYSTEM DUE NORTH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL DATA LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE JTWC TRACK LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD AND DEVELOPING
BIFURCATION OF THE MODEL TRACKERS THERE IS OVERALL HIGH, BUT
DECREASING, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.4S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER THE ASSESSED AND OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 012282Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A RATHER ELONGATED SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLCC, WHICH CAN BE DENOTED BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING
VISIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AS WELL AS
AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN OVERALL
MODERATELY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. TC 01S HAS BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY,
BLOCKED FROM ADDITIONAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. TC 01S WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. TC DAHLIA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE
STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-WEST AXIS, ALLOWING TC 01S
TO SHIFT TO AN EASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, HIGH
SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 48, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AROUND TAU
36. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 01S, FULLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST
AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.9S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION AND A DETERIORATING
STRUCTURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 020603Z AMSR2 IMAGE ALSO
DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE
OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER, IMPEDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO TC 01S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS GENEROUSLY BASED ON
RECENT CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WITH A
56 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE FROM 020615Z DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM WITH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE, AND A
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES DECLINE SHARPLY POLEWARD OF 15 DEGREES SOUTH. THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WELL SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR BEGINNING TO FEED IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALSO EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA WILL BEGIN
EXTENDING NORTHWARD AND STEERING TC 01S TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM GIVING RISE
TO ANOTHER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TC 01S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AND
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THROUGH TAU 48. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48,
THE SOUTHWARD TRACK WILL BRING TC 01S INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. COOLER SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL
SET IN MOTION A WEAKENING TREND, WHICH WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A
PASSING TROUGH INDUCING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STEERING
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE PASSING TROUGH ERODES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN
ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST. TC 01S SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500, 022100Z,
030300Z, AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 11.2S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.8S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 112.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION NEARLY
DIED OUT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 021224Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE
ALSO SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT PATCH OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND
THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE
OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER, IMPEDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO TC 01S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35
KNOTS), AND A 43 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE FROM 021223Z. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE, AND A
DEGRADING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES DECLINE SHARPLY POLEWARD OF 15 DEGREES SOUTH.
COINCIDING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE CIMSS TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WELL SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR BEGINNING TO FEED IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TC 01S HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS AS A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE
AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXTENDING NORTHWARD AND
STEER TC 01S TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THIS TRACK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 36. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, THE SOUTHWARD TRACK
WILL BRING TC 01S INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, ONLY TO BE EXACERBATED BY A PASSING TROUGH INDUCING HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE PASSING TROUGH ERODES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST. TC 01S
SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48,
BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING
INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.6S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 112.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 623 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE
INFRARED LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 021446Z METOP-
B PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANALYSIS OF THE CIMSS TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER
PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF MUTLI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH
AND AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 01S HAS WEAK POLEWARD OUTLOW
THAT IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. TC
DAHLIA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIMITED
INTENSIFICATION AS THE OUTFLOW TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECAY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH, AND AN EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR MASS WILL COMBINE TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 72.
IN THE LATER TAUS, THE STEERING RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH AND
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48, BUT BEGINS TO
DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE VARIATION IN THE FORECASTED RETROGRADING OF THE STEERING
TROUGH. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.4S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.0S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MUTLI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY
A 022216Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS LIMITED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END
OF MUTLI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5
TO T2.5 (25-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA
OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 01S HAS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. TC DAHLIA IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE WITH COOLER SSTS, UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH, AND AN EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR MASS WILL FULLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 48. ALSO
AFTER TAU 36, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
NORTH AND CAUSING TC 01S TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM CAUSES THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
SPREAD. DESPITE THE SPREAD AFTER TAU 36 THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z,
032100Z, AND 040300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.9S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PULSATING CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES
AND THE EXPOSED LLCC IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE HIGHLY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AND A 030149Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 38 KNOTS DESPITE, ALSO
NOTING AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5
(25 TO 35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG EASTERLIES FROM
A NEARBY RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST CREATING A MODERATE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. DIFFLUENCE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS ROBUST
AND AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TOUGH IS PROVIDING A WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AROUND
28 CELSIUS, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES DECLINE RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 15
DEGREES. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 01S WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE BOUNDARY TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
TACT WITH BOUTS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
MITIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AND THE SYSTEM
WILL PERSIST AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSISTENCY OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. BEYOND TAU 36 IT IS UNCLEAR
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF TC 01S WILL TRACK. AS A WEAK DEPRESSION, THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON STEERING AND MOST LIKELY
WILL TRACK BACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW, LEAVING
THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION SEVERAL DAYS OUT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING SYSTEM WITH PULSATING
CONVECTION AND LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 031053Z 91GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
THE HIGHLY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG EASTERLIES FROM A NEARBY RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST
CREATING A MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DIFFLUENCE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS ROBUST AND AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TOUGH IS
PROVIDING A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AROUND 28 CELSIUS, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES DECLINE
RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 15 DEGREES. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE BOUNDARY TRACKING
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LLCC IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN TACT WITH BOUTS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION AND THE SYSTEM WILL SOON DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSISTENCY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS. BEYOND TAU 24 IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE REMNANTS OF TC
01S WILL TRACK. AS A WEAK DEPRESSION THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE
LESS IMPACT ON STEERING AND WILL MOST LIKELY TRACK BACK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW, LEAVING A POSSIBILITY OF
REGENERATION SEVERAL DAYS OUT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 111.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED
FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE, WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SUPPORT THE
ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.5, REFLECTING CIMSS SATCON AND CIRA MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES. A 031424Z ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER, BUT INDICATED 25
KNOTS NEARBY. TC 01S IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DUE TO DECLINING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DAHLIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER. SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
REMNANT CIRC COULD EVENTUALLY TRACK BACK INTO MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, REGENERATION IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 12 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_dahlia.htm | Updated: 14 December 2017 |