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Tropical Cyclone FEHI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S 156.4E TO 18.8S 160.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 156.8E, APPROXIMATELY
755NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261952 F-17 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93P IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH BOTH EQUATOR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN 93P OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK IN A SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 272100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S 156.4E TO 18.8S 160.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 159.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY
520NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271719Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT
DEEP BUT RAGGED CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
93P IS LOCATED BETWEEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST, WHICH
IS CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM AND DISPLACING THE LARGE SWATH OF 30 KNOT
SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) COMBINED WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION, AND A TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM AS SOON AS THE VWS ABATES SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS THE
WARM CORE OF THE SYSTEM TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 272100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 280300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/272051ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.4S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.0S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.2S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 30.0S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 38.3S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 415 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 160.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM
WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A CONCENTRATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH A 272311Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 35 TO
40 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE
OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SPCZ, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES POLEWARD AND TAPS INTO MID-
LATITUDE DYNAMICS. TC 08P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 72, WITH INCREASE
BAROCLINICITY AND STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TC 08P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETELY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY TAU 96 IN THE VICINITY
OF NEW ZEALAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 272100).
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REFERENCE TO TCFA MESSAGE IN
BULLETIN HEADER AND ADDED PARA 2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.1S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.4S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 26.2S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 33.0S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 42.3S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
310 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTHWEST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND RAGGED AS IT ACCELERATED
POLEWARD, AS IT STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ON AN ELONGATED LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE WITH A SHALLOW FORMATIVE BAND
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-KNOT PLUS) VWS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET
BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OR
SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ACCELERATES POLEWARD. BY TAU 72,
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT GETS
EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT GETS ABSORBED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WIND FIELD. TC 08S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AND TRANSFORM INTO A
COLD CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z, AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.7S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.7S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.3S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.3S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 36.0S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 08S IS BEING INCREASINGLY
SHEARED, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ON A LLCC AND LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER IN A 281044Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-
KNOT PLUS) VWS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED WEAK
CONVECTION, ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC
08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
ACCELERATES POLEWARD AND BECOMES EMBDEDDED IN AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
CONCURRENTLY, TC 08S WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT GETS ABSORBED IN
THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WIND FIELD, AND THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND,
WITH STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED FURTHER FROM THE CENTER, INTO A COLD
CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TC 08S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT PREDICTING
ACCELERATING POLEWARD MOTION, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 004B RELOCATED CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.1S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.3S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.1S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.6S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 36.0S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE OBSCURING A HIGHLY SHEARED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH THE AMSU CROSS-SECTION
INDICATES A WARM CORE, STRUCTURALLY 08P HAS CHARACTERISTICS OF A
HYBRID TROPICAL/SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY
REVEALED A RAGGED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PAIR OF
RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES REVEALING A WELL DEFINED CENTER, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NEARLY 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. THIS POSITION
REPRESENTS A RELOCATION OF APPROXIMATELY 100 NM VERSUS THE 281200Z
ANALYZED POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW, AND IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM
SURPRISE ISLAND (37 KNOTS, 986 MB), BELEP ISLAND (27 KNOTS, 982 MB),
AND POINGAM (43 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS
IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-KNOT PLUS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION. TC 08P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL
OF VWS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 08P MAY DISSIPATE AS A CLOSED LOW PRIOR
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, MOST MODELS ARE
MAINTAINING THE CIRCULATION. IF IT REMAINS INTACT, TC 08P IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ACCELERATES
POLEWARD AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
BY TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. ETT WILL COMPLETE BY TAU
72, RESULTING IN A STRONG COLD CORE LOW WITH A LARGE GALE FORCE WIND
FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
PREDICTING ACCELERATING POLEWARD MOTION, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z, AND 292100Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED BASED ON SSMIS DEFINED
CENTER, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED
POSITION. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED WARNING TO INCLUDE
RSMC DESIGNATED NAME (FEHI), ISSUED AT 282147Z. ALSO ADDED
JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 162.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 162.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.7S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.4S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 27.7S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 31.2S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 39.3S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 162.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR
THE POLEWARD END OF AN ACTIVE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI, AND SUPPORTED
BY A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES, WHICH ALSO PROVIDED UPDATED WIND
RADII INFORMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW USING SHEAR
METHOD, AS WELL AS A T3.0 FROM NFFN, AND IS SUPPORTED BY ASCAT DATA,
SATCON ESTIMATED 55 KTS, MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS 49 KNOTS, AND
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STILL HIGH, BUT HAS MODERATED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO ROBUST. TC FEHI IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF VWS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 08P MAY
DISSIPATE AS A CLOSED LOW PRIOR TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD;
HOWEVER, MOST MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE
INDICATES FEHI SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNTIL HIGHER VWS VALUES RESUME AND SST VALUES BECOME MARGINAL.
BY TAU 36, TC 08P WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ETT WILL COMPLETE BY TAU
72, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY
DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENERGY CONVERSION AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z,
292100Z, AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 163.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 163.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.8S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.8S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.2S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 33.0S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 163.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO
THE SOUTH, NEAR THE POLEWARD END OF AN ACTIVE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
IN MSI, AND SUPPORTED BY A 280541Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW 280600Z
3.0/3.5 FIX AND NEARBY OBSERVATIONS, BUT ABOVE THE ABRF AND KNES
FIXES OF 1.0/1.5 AND 1.5/1.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STRONG (OVER 25 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL (26-27 DEGREES C) PREVENTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ROBUST OUTFLOW STILL PROVIDES STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FOR THE SYSTEM. TC FEHI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE INDICATES FEHI SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR 40 TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TAU 36, TC 08P
WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. ETT WILL
COMPLETE BY TAU 48, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL
SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY AS A COLD-CORE SYSTEM AND EXPAND ITS WIND
FIELD AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 21.3S 163.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 163.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.9S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 27.1S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 30.7S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 35.1S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 163.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT WAS LATER COVERED
BY FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE POLEWARD END OF AN ACTIVE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP, AND SUPPORTED BY A 281119Z AMSU 89 GHZ
IMAGE. CONVECTION HAS FLARED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS, THOUGH THERE IS
ONLY AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE PGTW 281200Z 2.5/3.0 FIX AND NEARBY OBSERVATIONS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STRONG
(OVER 25 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL (26-27
DEGREES C) PREVENTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ROBUST OUTFLOW STILL
PROVIDES STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR THE SYSTEM. TC FEHI IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES FEHI SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 40 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AROUND TAU 30-36, TC 08P WILL BEGIN EXTRA
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. ETT WILL COMPLETE BY TAU 48,
AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY AS A
COLD-CORE SYSTEM AND EXPAND ITS WIND FIELD AS IT ENTERS THE MID-
LATITUDES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 163.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 27.9S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 32.4S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 37.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 42.3S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DECREASING AND HIGHLY SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY
291839Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A
291235Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS) AND A MULTI-SENSOR SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI
HAS LIKELY COMPLETED TRANSITION TO A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. TC FEHI
CURRENTLY LIES UNDER STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER
ONLY MARGINAL (26-27 DEGREES C) SSTS. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION
INDICATES A STRONG WARM ANOMALY IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER, WITH A
WEAK WARM ANOMALY PRESENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SUPPORTING THE
ASSESSMENT THAT TC FEHI IS IN FACT SUB-TROPICAL. THE STRONG VWS IS
BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND
TAU 24. TC FEHI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSITY FROM TAU 24 TO 48,
AS IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME COMPLETELY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48, AS A 50
KNOT SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 25.0S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.4S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 32.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 37.6S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 164.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGHLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, AND ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
MULTSPECTRAL IMAGERY LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY 292230Z ASMU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A VERY WEAK, EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A 292232Z SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING A
COUPLE 40 KNOT WIND BARBS JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ALIGN WITH THE ASSESSED INTENSITY AT T2.3 (33
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI IS TRANSITING
THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS
AND IS TRACKING OVER MARGINAL (26 DEGREES C) SSTS. AN AMSU THERMAL
CROSS SECTION FROM 292000Z INDICATES A WARM ANOMALIES EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
INDICATIVE OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN
ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE, THEN COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. TC FEHI WILL
INTENSITY SLIGHTLY AS IT UNDERGOES ETT, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU
24. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 26.4S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 163.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 30.0S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 34.2S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HIGHLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTSPECTRAL IMAGERY
AND SUPPORTED BY A 300526Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING AN EXPOSED
BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS, BASED ON A 292232Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A COUPLE 40
KNOT WIND BARBS JUST EAST OF THE LLCC FURTHER SUPPORTED BY NEARBY
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ALIGN WITH
THE ASSESSED INTENSITY AT T2.3 (33 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC FEHI IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER
MARGINAL (26 DEGREES C) SST. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION FROM
300400Z INDICATES A WARM ANOMALY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, INDICATIVE OF A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO AN ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE, THEN
COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, COMING
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. TC FEHI WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
UNDERGOES ETT, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z AND
310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 28.1S 163.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 163.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 32.1S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 163.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AND A LARGE COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POLEWARD AND
EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY
A 301057Z MMHS 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING AN EXPOSED BUT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED
ON A PARTIAL 301058Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BROAD REGION 30-
35 KNOTS EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PATCH OF 40 KNOT WINDS
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ALIGN WITH THE ASSESSED INTENSITY AT T2.3 (33
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI IS TRANSITING
THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS
AND IS TRACKING OVER MARGINAL (25 DEGREES C) SST. AN AMSU THERMAL
CROSS SECTION FROM 300900Z INDICATES A WARM ANOMALY EXTENDING FROM
NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
INDICATIVE OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING FROM AN
ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE TO A COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. TC FEHI WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT UNDERGOES ETT, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU
12. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 22 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_fehi.htm | Updated: 8 March 2018 |