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Tropical Cyclone FLAMBOYAN
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Tropical Cyclone FLAMBOYAN Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 280130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S 95.5E TO 12.4S 86.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.0S 94.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 96.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 94.6E, APPROXIMATELY 284
NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 272117Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. THE VWS IS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS WHICH CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
TIMELINE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS,
NAVGEM, AND ECMWF PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT IN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280121ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 8.9S 92.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 92.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 10.0S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 11.4S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.8S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.3S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.7S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.5S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.8S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 91.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COVERED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI IMAGERY
AND A 280309Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SPIRALING
BANDS WRAPPING INTO DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW 280600Z CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) FIX OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KNES
280600Z FIX OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES OF 27-28C ARE
CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH THE STR WILL RECEDE TO
THE EAST, ALLOWING TC 21S TO TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWARD RECURVING
TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65 KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 48, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD, TC 21S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG VWS, AND 21S WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SSTS, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, SEVERAL OUTLIERS TO THE WEST, INCLUDING COTC
AND ECMWF, SLOW THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION AND ENLARGE ITS TURNING
RADIUS, BIASING CONSENSUS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OTHER MODELS MOSTLY
AGREE ON PROPAGATION SPEED THROUGH THE TURN, BUT VARY SLIGHTLY IN
THEIR EAST TO WEST PLACEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, PLACING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE EASTERN TRACKS THAT BETTER DEPICT
RECURVATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280130).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 9.6S 90.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 90.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 11.1S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.5S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.0S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.9S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.4S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.7S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.8S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 90.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1096 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST-OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON AN INFLOW NOTCH IN THE EIR
IMAGERY AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 280942Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, JUST ABOVE THE PGTW AND KNES
281200Z CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) FIXES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND BELOW A
281210Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 43 KTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES OF 27-28C ARE
CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH THE STR WILL RECEDE TO THE EAST,
ALLOWING TC 21S TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU
72. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 70 KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 48, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD TC 21S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG VWS, AND 21S WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SSTS, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MESOSCALE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE LATEST MODEL RUN ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE INTENSITY
PEAK, AND GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
PREDICTIONS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTERWARDS, SEVERAL OUTLIERS, INCLUDING COTC AND NAVGEM, SLOW THE
SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION AND ENLARGE ITS TURNING RADIUS, BIASING
CONSENSUS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OTHER MODELS BETTER CAPTURE TC 21S
RECURVING AROUND THE STR TO THE EAST, BUT PROPAGATION SPEED AT LATER
TAUS BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, PLACING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE MORE EASTERN TRACKS THAT BETTER DEPICT RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 10.2S 89.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 89.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 11.6S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 13.0S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.2S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.6S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.0S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.7S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.2S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 89.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1037 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 21S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 281544Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS GOOD BANDING AND POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND BELOW A 281543Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
21S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 21S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
STR THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC
21S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.3S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.5S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.7S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.0S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.7S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.3S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1021 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 21S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 282342Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS GOOD BANDING AND A NOTCH FEATURE INDICATING THE POSITION OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET
BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 21S HAS
TRACKED OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND
THE STR AND TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 21S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU
36 AND WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 THEN THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MODEL
SPREAD. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 87.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 87.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 13.5S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.5S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.8S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.5S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.8S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 953 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 360 DEGREES AROUND
AND INTO A TIGHT MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION COVERING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI SUPPORTED BY A 290331Z
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A BROKEN MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55
KNOTS), HEDGED TO THE UPPER BOUND DUE TO A RECENT ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS AS WELL AS SUBJECTIVE
ASSESSMENT OF THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (ABOUT 10
KNOTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND
28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY BEFORE
SLOWING DOWN AND RECURVING TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 24. AS TC 21S
BEGINS TO RECURVE, INCREASING VWS ALONG WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, CAUSING INTENSITY TO
PEAK AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS AT
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36,
AND THEN THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MODEL SPREAD. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.9S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.0S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.3S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.7S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.5S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.0S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 85.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 884 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH COOLING TOPS COVERING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 291221Z SSMI/S 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
60 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T3.5 (65 TO 55 KNOTS), ALONG WITH A RECENT
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (ABOUT 10 KNOTS), SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 21S
IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY UNDER THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT TAU 12. AS TC 21S BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND
RECURVE TO THE SOUTH, INCREASING VWS ALONG WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS AT TAU 96. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN JUST FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36, AND THEN THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MODEL
SPREAD, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.7S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.7S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.3S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.6S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.1S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.7S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 85.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 868 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATED AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 21S. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 291605Z
METOP-A ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON
A 291524Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE, A 291605Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE AND A
291456Z OSCAT IMAGE WHICH ALL SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, A 291321Z SATCON ESTIMATE SHOWS A WIND SPEED OF 79 KNOTS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO
65 KNOTS). THE JTWC INTENSITY FAVORS THE ASCAT DATA. TC 21S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR MINOR INTENSIFICATION
TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, TC 21S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. TC 21S WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR BY TAU 36 AS THE TRACK TRANSITIONS FROM SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWARD AND FINALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. DESPITE THE WIDE SPREAD IN INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z, 300900Z,301500Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.6S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.8S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.1S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.4S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.2S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.5S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 84.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 857 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATED BUT PULSATING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 21S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 292234Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGE BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM FIMP
AND FMEE. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NO
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW TC 21S TO MAINTAIN AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TC 21S WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. TC 21S WILL ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR BY TAU 36 AS THE TRACK TRANSITIONS FROM
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AND FINALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM WHICH
MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.2S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.4S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.8S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.2S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.4S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 84.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THICK BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 300410Z METOP-B ASCAT
AMBIGUITY IMAGE SUPPORTED BY ANIMATED MSI. THE CORRESPONDING MHS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROKEN EYE FEATURE WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON FOUR MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT AT T4.0 (65 KNOTS);
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING 55 TO
60 KNOT WIND BARBS. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE (10 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR
27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW TC
21S TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU
12, STEADILY INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN TC 21S. AFTER THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS AT ABOUT TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS SUCH AS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND AN
EXPANDED WIND FIELD; HOWEVER, EXTREME VWS (OVER 60 KNOTS) IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72, BEFORE A TRUE PHASE
TRANSITION CAN OCCUR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.0S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.5S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.8S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.2S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.9S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 84.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 861 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST REGION WITH
COOLING CLOUD TOPS COVERING UP THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
301208Z SSMI/S 36 GHZ COLOR ENHANCED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
BROKEN EYE FEATURE. COMPARISON TO THE SAME FEATURE OBSERVED IN THE
CORRESPONDING 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTED TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH ARE IN AGREEMENT AT T4.0 (65
KNOTS), HEDGED HIGHER DUE TO A 300832Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 78 KNOTS.
TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (15 KNOTS) VWS, NO
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26 TO 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS). THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW TC 21S TO
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC
21S. AFTER THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AXIS BY TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE ON SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SUCH AS ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND AN EXPANDED WIND FIELD; HOWEVER, EXTREMELY
HIGH VWS (OVER 60 KNOTS) IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU
72, BEFORE A TRUE PHASE TRANSITION CAN OCCUR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND
011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 84.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 84.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.8S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.4S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.8S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.3S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 84.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED AND ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN
ANALYSIS OF RECENT MULTI-CHANNEL MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS TILTED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 301543Z AMSU 89 GHZ PASS, AND
ADJUSTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BASED ON THE APPARENT TILT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS) GIVEN HIGHER AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 21S IS TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY AT OR ABOVE
20 KNOTS AND INCREASING DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE VWS IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TC FLAMBOYAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, WITH GOOD OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER, FORWARD SPEED OF MOTION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, IN CLOSER ALIGNMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
MEAN FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY AND DATA INDICATES IT IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. GUIDANCE INDICATES FLAMBOYAN WILL INTERACT WITH THE
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC TROUGH, WITH COOLER SSTS AND HIGH VWS
CONTRIBUTING TO A TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU
48, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE VWS MAY RESULT IN THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING BELOW
JTWC WARNING CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GUIDANCE
INDICATES A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE REMNANT CYCLONE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WAS
CHANGED TO INDICATE THE CHANGE OF PHASE STATE BY TAU 48, VICE
DISSIPATION OVER WATER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500, AND 012100Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS31 PGTW 010300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.5S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.5S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.7S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 893 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
=========================================================================
013
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS31 PGTW 011500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 84.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.5S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.1S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 84.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 926 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 84.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 84.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.5S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.7S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 954 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S
(FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 954 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, DECOUPLED FROM WANING CONVECTION SHEARED FAR TO
THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VWS. A 011621Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) BASED ON A
011618Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 39 KNOTS, A 011800Z AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND A 011621Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWING A
BROAD AREA OF 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD,
ACCELERATING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING TO SUBTROPICAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.4S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.2S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 84.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 983 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE THERMAL STRUCTURE
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATES FLAMBOYAN HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IS HIGHLY ELONGATED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG (50-60 KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40
KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW SUBTROPICAL DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) BASED ON THE LARGE SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS OBSERVED IN THE
301622Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE DEGRADATION OF THE LLCC DUE TO VWS,
THE REMNANT GALE FORCE WIND FIELD WILL DECAY GRADUALLY DUE TO ITS
LARGE SIZE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z IS 22 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_flamboyan.htm | Updated: 4 May 2018 |