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Tropical Cyclone GITA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone GITA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 175.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 175.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.2S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.8S 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.2S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.3S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.7S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.9S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 174.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM WEST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
ALONG WITH THE UNDERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALONG WITH A
BULLSEYE 082124Z METOP-A ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE CORRESPONDING METOP-
A ASCAT WIND BARBS IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ARE MUCH WEAKER
(PREDOMINANTLY 10 TO 20 KTS). THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO
THE NORTH OF TC 09P IS CAUSING THIS ASYMMETRY IN THE LLC AND AIDING
IN SPIN UP. AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
T1.5 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS) AND ARE SLIGHTLY BEHIND ACTUAL
INTENSITY AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 09P IS IN A FAVORABLE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
LOCATED JUST TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO STRONG DIFFLUENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OBSERVED OVER THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) AS WELL. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND THEN DEFLECT TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU
48, TC 09P WILL CONTINUE ITS RECURVE TO THE WEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BY 30 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY UNTIL TAU 24 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS CONVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. AFTER
TAU 48, GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS 09P TRACKS BACK
UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. DUE TO THE OBVIOUS
STEERING FEATURES, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 174.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 174.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.2S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3S 169.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.5S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.0S 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.8S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.5S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.0S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 173.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MASS OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 090318Z
91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TC 09P. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON A 082125Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 09P IS BEING STEERED
SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. TC 09P
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 70
KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36
TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD WITH AN
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 173.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 173.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.8S 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.1S 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.3S 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.4S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.3S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.1S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.9S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 172.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 091200Z GOES-15 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF TC 09P WITH A CLOUD NOTCH FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM NFFN, THIS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 09P IS BEING
STEERED EASTWARD BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. TC
09P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO
70 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36 TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD WITH AN
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 171.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 171.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.2S 169.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.2S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.7S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.3S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.4S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.9S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 170.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP AND A 091830Z 89 GHZ AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35 TO 45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 09P IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. TC 09P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH TIME IT
WILL RECURVE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, EVENTUALLY TRACKING WESTWARD BY
TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS AROUND TAU 96. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z,
101500Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 170.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 170.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.4S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.5S 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.5S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.0S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.0S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 169.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANUA ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY LOCATED TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MUTLI-
SPECTRAL LOOP AND A 092104Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED BUT WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS
IS ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE THAT HAS AN EXPANSIVE 45 KNOT WIND FIELD
WILL SOME 50 KNOT WIND BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG
OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. TC 09P IS TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AT WHICH TIME THE STR
TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND THE
SYSTEM RECURVES TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TRACK DUE WEST THROUGH TAU 72 WHEN IT CROSSES THE RIDGE AXIS AND
TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AROUND TAU
120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVEHEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 169.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 169.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.2S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.7S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.3S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.3S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.1S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.2S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.1S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 168.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE FROM A COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM FIJI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AGENCY
AND SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.3. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
WESTERLY VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY TEMPERED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK CAUSED BY A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, EVIDENT ON THE MSI
ANIMATION. TC 09P IS TRACKING OVER WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SSTS. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE NER EXTENSION TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, A BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME
STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72-96 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE
TO INCREASING VWS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 168.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 168.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.2S 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.2S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.5S 173.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.4S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.5S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.0S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.9S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 168.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM
NORTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED BUT REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD OF AND OBSCURES THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE IN A 100850Z AMSU PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) WESTERLY VWS THAT IS OFFSET
BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS, HOWEVER, TEMPERED BY
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ALSO EVIDENT ON THE EIR ANIMATION. TC
09P IS TRACKING OVER WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE NER EXTENSION TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
AFTER TAU 06, A BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND
DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT
80 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72-96 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 168.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 168.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3S 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.1S 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.1S 174.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.1S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.5S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.9S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.9S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 168.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST OF
NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE TOP OF AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS ON THE
LOWER END OF MULTI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF
72 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MORE GRADUAL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC
09P IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) EXTENSION TO THE EAST. THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE WILL
SOON BECOME THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS AROUND
TAU 48 BEFORE BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z,
111500Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 168.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 168.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.6S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.0S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.9S 174.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.8S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.3S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.8S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.7S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 168.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CENTRAL DIMPLE FEATURE BELIEVED TO BE A FORMATIVE EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DIMPLE AND A NOTCH FEATURE IN A 102042Z 89GHZ METOP-A AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW MULTI-
AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ABOVE A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 73 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, THOUGH THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BECOME MORE
GRADUAL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTH EAST. PRIOR TO
TAU 12, THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE WILL SOON BECOME THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO
THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS AROUND
TAU 72 BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 168.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 168.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.4S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.4S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.1S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.8S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.4S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.1S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.1S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 169.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DIMPLE FEATURE, PRECURSOR TO A FORMATIVE EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DIMPLE AND A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 110250Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND 110251Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS IN CONCURRENCE WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND A 110000Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 88 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND IS SUPPORTED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, THOUGH THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BECOME MORE
GRADUAL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER VWS IN THE AREA. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO
THE NORTH EAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH IS BUILDING,
AND HAS ALREADY CAUSED 09P TO TURN WESTWARD. TC 09P WILL TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 90, AS THE STR ERODES TO THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE STARTING A
WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES AND TC 09P BEGINS TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD TOWARDS LOWER SSTS IN LATER TAUS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 170.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 170.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.6S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.3S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.2S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.0S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.5S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 25.6S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 170.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM SOUTH
OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
SHOWED A TEMPORARY EYE THAT WAS ONCE AGAIN SUBSUMED INTO DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A WARMER NOTCH FEATURE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
110911Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE PGTW 1200 FIX OF T5.0, AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE KNES FIX OF T4.5. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), BUT IS SUPPORTED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER VWS IN THE
AREA HAVE STIFLED DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 09P IS
CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH, AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY
OF THE STR. TC 09P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 90, AS THE STR
ERODES TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS AROUND
TAU 48 BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES AND TC 09P
BEGINS TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS LOWER SSTS IN LATER TAUS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UNTIL LATER
TAUS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NUMERICAL
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE POLEWARD
TURN, OCCURING SOMETIME AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z,
120900Z, AND 121500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 171.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 171.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.5S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.2S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.0S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.0S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.6S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.0S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.4S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 172.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN 111801Z 91GHZ SSMIS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED 15NM WIDE
MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T6.5 (90-115
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE OUTFLOW PREDOMINANTLY ON THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE. TC GITA IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNTIL AFTER
TAU 48 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 105
KNOTS AROUND TAU 24 BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. TC 09P BEGINS TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS LOWER
SSTS IN LATER TAUS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT UNTIL LATER TAUS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO VARY IN THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE VARIATIONS IN
THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 172.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 172.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.5S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.1S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.3S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.2S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.8S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.2S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 173.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MUTLI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN 112023Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED 25NM WIDE MICROWAVE EYE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC GITA IS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE WEST THAT HAS BEEN LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 36 AT WHICH POINT IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 24, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24 THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. INITIALLY, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE DUE
TO INCREASING VWS, AND IN THE LATER TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK
INTO COOLER (<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS BEGIN TO VARY IN THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRICIPLE OUTLIERS,
NAVGEM AND COAMPS, TURN SHARPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. DESPITE THE
VARIATIONS IN THE LATER TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUSIS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 174.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 174.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.4S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.2S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.3S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.6S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.3S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.1S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.0S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 174.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A RAGGED BUT CLEARLY EVIDENT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MSI EYE FEATURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY 120609Z AND 120633Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWING A CLEARLY DEFINED 15NM WIDE
MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS IN CONCURRENCE
WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, HEDGED ABOVE A 120350Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
114 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC GITA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE WEST THAT HAS BEEN LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 36 AT WHICH POINT IT WILL BEGIN TO
ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PLATEAU AT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 125 KTS, THEN BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24 THAT
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. INITIALLY, THE
WEAKENING TREND WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND IN THE LATER
TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK INTO COOLER (<26 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS BEGIN TO VARY IN
THE SHARPNESS AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRINCIPAL
OUTLIERS, NAVGEM AND COAMPS, TURN SHARPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
DESPITE THE VARIATIONS IN THE LATER TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 175.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 175.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.1S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.1S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.3S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.6S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.6S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.5S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.6S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 176.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. A
120948Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A 10 NM WIDE MICROWAVE EYE AND THE
MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR EYE
AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED 120948Z 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS IN CONCURRENCE WITH
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW AND ABOVE A 120638Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 114 KTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND TC
GITA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST THAT HAS BEEN LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND STRONGER EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS, IN ADDITION TO WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IS CURRENTLY OFFSETTING THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF VWS AND SUBSIDENCE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST
THROUGH TAU 36 AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS
PLATEAUED AT 125 KTS, AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.
INITIALLY, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND IN
THE LATER TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK INTO COOLER (<26 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED
IN THEIR FORECAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, WHICH CURVES SOONER AND MORE TIGHTLY THAN THE OTHERS.
DESPITE THE VARIATIONS IN THE LATER TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 21.3S 177.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 177.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.0S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.0S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.6S 174.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.8S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.8S 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.0S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.3S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 177.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A SMALL (LESS THAN 10 NM DIAMETER) RAGGED EYE
SURROUNDED BY A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL THAT HAS MAINTAINED
CONSISTENT STRUCTURE AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. A 121748Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THIS POSITION AND REVEALS A BROADER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS IN
CONCURRENCE WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 AND T6.5 (115 TO 127 KNOTS) AS WELL AS A 121506Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 118 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS OUTFLOW, IN
ADDITION TO WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IS
CURRENTLY ALLOWING TC 09P TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 24 AFTER WHICH IT
WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS PLATEAUED AT 125 KTS, AND IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. INITIALLY, THE WEAKENING TREND
WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND IN THE LATER TAUS, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK INTO COOLER (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED IN THEIR
FORECAST OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE
OUTLIERS WHICH PREDICT A TIGHTER TURN. DESPITE THE VARIATIONS IN THE
LATER TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
131500Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 178.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 178.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.0S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.1S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.4S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.1S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.4S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.5S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 178.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL (LESS THAN 10 NM DIAMETER) RAGGED EYE
SURROUNDED BY A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL THAT HAS MAINTAINED
CONSISTENT STRUCTURE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
CONFIRMING A SMALL CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE. A 122059Z METOP-B MHS
89 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS POSITION AND SHOWS A
DEFINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH SOME EROSION ON THE EASTERN SIDE
AND A BROADER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SLIGHT
WEAKENING IN OBSERVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN CONCURRENCE WITH MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 AND T6.5
(115 TO 127 KNOTS) AS WELL AS A 122058Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 116
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 24
AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS PLATEAUED, AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN THE LATER TAUS, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK INTO COOLER (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND SPIN DOWN MORE QUICKLY. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE IN THEIR FORECAST OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN.
DESPITE SOME VARIATION IN THE LATER TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 179.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 179.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.0S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.2S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.6S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.0S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.8S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.4S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.1S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 180.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 130557Z 37GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE VWS IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN
28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 09P IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE STR WILL CONTINUE
TO STEER TC 09P GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC
09P WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN
TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE EVENTUALLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD
BY TAU 120. AS TC 09P CONTINUES TRACKING WESTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWARD IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATER WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT A RELATIVELY STEADY RATE THROUGH TAU 48.
INCREASING VWS WILL ALSO HELP DECREASE TC 09P IN INTENSITY TO 95
KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 21.1S 179.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 179.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.3S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.6S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.0S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.6S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.8S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.4S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.3S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 179.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A
DISTINCT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 131200Z
HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND
T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THE VWS IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
09P IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND IS
STILL BEING STEERED WESTWARD. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC 09P
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 09P WILL BEGIN
TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE EVENTUALLY TRACKING SOUTH BY TAU 120. AS TC 09P
TRACKS AROUND THE STR IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATER WHICH WILL
ALLOW IT TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT A RELATIVELY STEADY RATE
THROUGH TAU 48. INCREASING VWS WILL ALSO HELP DECREASE TC 09P IN
INTENSITY TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z,
140900Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 178.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 178.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.1S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.4S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.9S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.6S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.7S 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 27.7S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.8S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 178.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 30NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS WHICH IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T5.5 AND T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY SUPPORTIVE WITH A POINT SOURCE LOCATED
OVER CENTER FEEDING POLEWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SSTS
ARE ALSO VERY WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TC 09S IS TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). THE WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST STEERING TC 09S WEST INITIALLY, THEN GRADUALLY
SOUTHWEST BY TAU 49, AND EVENTUALLY DUE SOUTH ROUNDING THE RIDGE
AXIS BY TAU 120. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE IN
THE NEAR TERM SUPPORTING ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24 SSTS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
APPROACHING 26 CELSIUS BY TAU 72, AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO
APPROXIMATELY 85KTS. BEYOND TAU 72 SSTS DECLINE MUCH MORE RAPIDLY
AND THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DROP CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ESPECIALLY TIGHT GROUPING IN THE EARLY TAUS AND ONLY MARGINAL
SEPARATION IN THE LATER TAUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 177.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 177.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.3S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.7S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.2S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.9S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.1S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.2S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.1S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 177.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A
HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 25NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
WHICH IS ON THE LOWER END OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 TO T6.5 (115 TO 127 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY SUPPORTIVE WITH A POINT
SOURCE LOCATED OVER THE CENTER FEEDING POLEWARD INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TC 09S
IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WILL PERSIST FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, STEERING TC 09S WEST INITIALLY, THEN
GRADUALLY SOUTHWEST BY TAU 48, AND EVENTUALLY DUE SOUTH ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 120. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM SUPPORTING ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24 SSTS GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF APPROACHING 26 CELSIUS BY TAU 72, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO APPROXIMATELY 85KTS. BEYOND TAU 72 SSTS DECLINE MUCH
MORE RAPIDLY AND THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DROP CONSIDERABLY
DURING THIS PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ESPECIALLY TIGHT GROUPING IN THE EARLY TAUS AND ONLY
MARGINAL SEPARATION IN THE LATER TAUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND
150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 177.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 177.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.6S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.0S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.6S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.5S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.0S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 29.4S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 33.3S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 176.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL
SYSTEM WITH A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 21NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE, FOR NOW, VERY CONDUCIVE WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT
PROMOTING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM AT 28
CELSIUS. TC 09S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED STR TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, TC 09P WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
OUT-OF-PHASE WITH STORM MOTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL
COOL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD. IN VIEW OF THESE, TC GITA WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN AND BE REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS IT
APPROACHES NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT LEADING TO AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100, 150300Z, AND 150900.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 176.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 176.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.8S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.4S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.1S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.3S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.9S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 30.7S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 35.2S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 175.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 553 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A SHARPLY-OUTLINED, ALBEIT ENLARGED, 30NM
EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR SATELLITE LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T5.5 TO T6.0 AND SATCON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.9.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT
ENHANCING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM AT 28
CELSIUS. TC 09S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 09P WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR. VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE OUT-OF-PHASE WITH STORM MOTION.
ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL COOL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
POLEWARD. IN VIEW OF THESE, TC GITA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AND BE
REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS IT APPROACHES NEW ZEALAND.
CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 175.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 175.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.9S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.4S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.4S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.6S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 27.6S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.6S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 36.5S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 174.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED 30 NM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP AND A 141626Z
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE
MICROWAVE EYE WITH SLIGHTLY MORE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
LOWER END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND NFFN TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF
WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TC 09P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE RIDGE. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VWS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT-OF-PHASE WITH STORM MOTION.
CONCURRENTLY WITH INCREASING VWS, ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL COOL AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD OF 25S. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, TC GITA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS
IT APPROACHES NEW ZEALAND. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND
152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 174.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 174.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.0S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.7S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.7S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.0S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.2S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.0S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 39.1S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED 60 NM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP
AND A 142200Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A LARGELY SYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER
EXTENT OF THE 34 KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND NFFN
TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT CONTINUES TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEW ZEALAND FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VWS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WHILE ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL COOL AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS POLEWARD OF 25S. AS THE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS TO UNFAVORABLE,
TC GITA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AROUND TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.4S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.4S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.5S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.9S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 29.4S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 34.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 41.6S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 172.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH
WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS AND A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT ENLARGED, 55NM
EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE 0458Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5
TO T6.0 TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT ENHANCING EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM AT 28 CELSIUS. TC 09S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE SOUTH.
AFTER TAU 24, TC 09P WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
OUT-OF-PHASE WITH STORM MOTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL
COOL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD. IN VIEW OF THESE DYNAMICS, TC
GITA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AND BE REDUCED TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS
IT CROSSES NEW ZEALAND NEAR WELLINGTON. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMES A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND
160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 172.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 172.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.1S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.1S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.2S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.7S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 30.4S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 36.6S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 43.1S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 171.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL
SYSTEM WITH WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS BUT WITH A WELL-DEFINED 40 NM
EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
EYE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 151027Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T6.0 TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT WEAKENING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT
ENHANCING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM AT 28
CELSIUS. TC 09S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, TC 09P WILL GRADUALLY
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR. VWS IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE OUT-OF-PHASE WITH STORM MOTION. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL COOL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD. IN VIEW OF
THESE DYNAMICS, TC GITA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BE REDUCED TO 40
KNOTS BY TAU 120 AFTER IT CROSSES NEW ZEALAND NEAR WELLINGTON.
CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
72 AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMES A GALE-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z,
160900Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 22.6S 171.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 171.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.4S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.5S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.8S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 27.3S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.5S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 37.7S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.2S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 170.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED 40 NM EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EYE IN THE ANIMATED LOOP THAT ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 151850Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON MUTLI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T6.0 (90-115
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 09P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GRADUALLY SOUTH, THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CROSSES THE RIDGE
AXIS AROUND TAU 72. STEADILY INCREASING VWS, THE RESULT OF UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING OUT OF PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL
BECOME UNFAVORABLE (<26 CELSIUS) AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD OF
25S. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, REDUCING THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. TC GITA
WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE
FORCE WIND FIELD BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND
162100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 170.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 170.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.7S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.7S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.0S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 27.4S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 32.0S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.1S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 43.0S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 169.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH A WELL-
DEFINED 35 NM EYE FEATURE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE ANIMATED LOOP AND A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN A 152221Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A
POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC GITA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TRACK DIRECTION GRADUALLY
SOUTH THOUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE
AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND SSTS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE (<26 CELSIUS) AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD OF
25 SOUTH. AROUND TAU 72, TC GITA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU
120, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE
FORCE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 23.2S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.1S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.2S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 26.6S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 28.1S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 33.5S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.3S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 43.8S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED AND SYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A
DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 160334Z 85GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE EYE FEATURE AND THAT THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS
OFFSET BY A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 09P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. TC 09P WILL
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE TO AN INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU
36. BY TAU 72 TC 09P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW ZEALAND NEAR TAU 96 AS IT
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 23.5S 168.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 168.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.5S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 25.7S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 27.2S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 29.2S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.8S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 41.0S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 167.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A DECAYING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 161050Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS BECOMING DISPLACED FROM THE CONVECTION DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND BETWEEN DVORAK CI ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90
KNOTS) AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PHFO AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS).
TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT ROUNDS THE STR.
TC 09P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN SOUTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 09P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 167.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.7S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 26.0S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.7S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.8S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 36.1S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 42.6S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 166.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 161817Z
SSMIS PASS SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE STILL VERY MUCH
INTACT WITH AN OBSERVABLE EYE FEATURE IN THE 37GHZ BAND. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE
IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS WHICH IS
HEDGED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A
161612Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE
WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. SSTS HAVE
STEADILY BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE NOW NEAR
26 CELSIUS. TC 09W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IS TRACKS OVER COOLER
AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS INFLUENCING
THE CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND WILL SHIFT TC 09S TO A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AXIS. SOMETIME AROUND TAU 72 TC 09S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO FULLY
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT STARTS TO DIVERGE
THEREAFTER AS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 24.5S 166.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 166.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 25.5S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.8S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.5S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 31.2S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 37.9S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 42.9S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 166.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER DEEPER CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A
162201Z METOP-B MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND AN INTACT LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A 161929Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TO
FAVORABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE WIND SHEAR WHICH
IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. SSTS HAVE STEADILY BEEN
DECREASING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE NOW NEAR 25 CELSIUS.
TC 09W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS INFLUENCING THE
CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND WILL SHIFT TC 09S TO A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AXIS. SOMETIME AROUND TAU 72 TC 09S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN ITS
TRANSITION INTO A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 09S IS
EXPECTED TO FULLY COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
BUT STARTS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z,
171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 24.9S 165.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 165.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.9S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.5S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.5S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.4S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.3S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 43.3S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 165.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A 170453Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH STILL SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS
IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM PHFO AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET BY A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE TIME BEING, BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
09P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 36,
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. TC 09P WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN NEW ZEALAND NEAR TAU 84 AND COMPLETE EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 25.5S 164.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 164.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.6S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.4S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.9S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.8S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 40.5S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 44.1S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 09P. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING CONVECTION THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN STRONG. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 171126Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
STRONG AND SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS
HEDGED ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A LARGE SWATH
OF 50 KNOT WINDS WITH 60 KNOT WINDS LIKELY EMBEDDED BUT NOT DISPLAYED
IN THE ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET BY A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE TIME BEING, BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 09P IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 30, WITH AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
ACCELERATES AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. TC 09P
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ZEALAND NEAR TAU 84 AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 26.0S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.4S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.5S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.2S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 41.4S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 163.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A
SMALL AREA OF REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 171610Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE REMNANTS OF A LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT
IS NO LONGER INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 91 GHZ
IMAGE FROM THIS SSMIS PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OBSERVED IN
THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY A 171438Z SATCON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET
BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
AT ABOUT 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THIS
THRESHOLD AS TC 09P TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 24,
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
AS IT ACCELERATES AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. AS
TC 09P TRANSITIONS, ITS WIND FIELD WILL BROADEN AND SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHEN ALLOWING INTENSITY TO REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS DESPITE HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE SSTS. TC 09P WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NEW ZEALAND AT TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 26.7S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.4S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.7S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.8S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 37.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 42.3S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 163.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SMALL REMAINING AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. A 172238Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 50 KNOT BARBS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE 60 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI SUPPORTED BY THE 172238Z
ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON STEADY STATE CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY A 172021Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 54 KNOTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE HEDGED HIGHER THAN
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FRON T2.0 TO 3.0 (30 TO 45
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THIS THRESHOLD AS TC 09P
TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 18 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AND
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AS TC 09P TRANSITIONS,
ITS WIND FIELD WILL BROADEN AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN ALLOWING
INTENSITY TO REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS DESPITE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS. TC
09P WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL OVER NEW ZEALAND AT TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z,
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 27.4S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.4S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.2S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.7S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 38.9S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 43.7S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 162.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 09P. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON AN 180306Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A 172240Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 50 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR
25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC
09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AS TC 09P TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 28.2S 162.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 162.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.5S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.9S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 37.5S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 40.7S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 162.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 09P. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON AN 181103Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS THE CONVECTION THAT REMAINS IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 172240Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 50 KNOT WINDS AND HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR. AS TC 09P TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL MAINTAIN AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 36, COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48, AND TRACK OVER
NEW ZEALAND AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 29.2S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.0S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.5S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 42.2S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 29.9S 162.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST OF
KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FURTHER FROM THE PUFF OF REMAINING
CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND SUPPORTED BY AN 181559Z 85GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE CONFIRMING A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND SUPPORTED
BY A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AS
WELL AS AN 181421Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS
OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH RECENT PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 09P IS
STILL A TROPICAL WARM CORE SYSTEM, IT IS STARTING TO DISPLAY
SUBTROPICAL FEATURES SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD SIDE. TC 09P IS TRACKING
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
BY TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 09P WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
48 OVER NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 30.9S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.3S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.3S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 42.6S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 31.7S 162.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ASYMMETRIC WITH ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED
POLEWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH
IS BASED ON THE EVIDENT LLCC IN AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS HEDGED HIGHER THAN MULTI-
AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, STILL VERY MUCH INTACT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WHICH
REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH RECENT PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 09P IS
STILL A TROPICAL WARM CORE SYSTEM, IT IS STARTING TO DISPLAY
SUBTROPICAL FEATURES SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD SIDE. TC 09P IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
BY TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 09P WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
48 OVER NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 32.6S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.6S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 36.2S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 40.5S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.9S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 33.5S 163.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 190550Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLCC AND DECAYING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 182303Z PARTIAL METOP-
A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASCAT PASS, 50 KNOT WINDS ARE
STILL LIKELY IN A TIGHT RADIUS AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS)
WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT,
BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 12 TC 09P WILL TRACK MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12 AND DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 34.0S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.1S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 41.8S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 35.0S 165.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 191125Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE LLCC WHICH IS STARTING TO BECOME
ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SAME
ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS THAT 50 KNOT WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50 TO 60 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12
AND DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 35.5S 167.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.5S 167.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.6S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.3S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 36.5S 168.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM
NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE
SOUTH DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GITA IS
NOW ASSESSED AS FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL. DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ASYMMETRIC LLCC STRUCTURE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE VWS AND LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE JET HAS HELPED MAINTAIN THE STRONG CORE WINDS DURING THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS BASED ON THE LARGE SWATH OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS IN A 191125Z
ASCAT PASS. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST, WITH A VERY GRADUAL DISSIPATION TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_gita.htm | Updated: 8 March 2018 |