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Tropical Cyclone IRIS
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone IRIS Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 230230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 163.8E TO 17.3S 161.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 163.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 95P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
163.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 560NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
CONSOLODATE AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 222253Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 25KT
WINDS, WITH A SMALLER REGION OF 30KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST CREATING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT AT 28 CELSIUS BUT BECOME UNFAVORABLE
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT AS 95P MAKES A CURVING TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH THE UKMO AND JGSM DISSENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 240130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230221ZMAR18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 160.9E TO 17.8S 158.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 160.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S
163.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270NM SOUTH
OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ADDITIONALLY, A 232141Z OSCAT PASS
DEPICTS 15-20KTS WINDS AROUND THE CENTER WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF
30-35KTS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135NM EAST OF THE LLC INDICATING THAT
SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED SIGNIFICANTLY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
MODERATE (15-20KTS) IVO THE LLC BUT SURROUNDED BY HIGH VWS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH WHICH IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT AT 28 CELSIUS BUT BECOME
UNFAVORABLE SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE VERY
WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24HRS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
240121ZMAR2018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 158.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 158.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.4S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.4S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.8S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.3S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.0S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.1S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.7S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 158.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
241654Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO EMPHASIZES THE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EIR LOOP AND THE 241654Z
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35
KNOTS). TC 17P IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS (5-10KTS)
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND A FORMATIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
HOWEVER, HIGH VWS SURROUNDS TC 17P TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INHIBITING
EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE TO
DEVELOPMENT AT 28 CELSIUS BUT BECOME UNFAVORABLE AROUND TAU 72, WHEN
THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 17P WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST
12-24HRS BEFORE MOVING ON A SOUTHERLY TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 60, TC 17P
WILL TURN TO A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96 THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE TRACKING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST AS AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z,
251500Z AND 252100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW
240130). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.6S 158.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 158.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.4S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.7S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.2S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.0S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.8S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.0S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.1S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 158.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 573 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 242254Z METOP-A ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 30 KNOT (30-34 KNOT) WIND
BARBS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE LATTER
TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT TC IRIS IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH THE TRACK
BECOMING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36. TC 17P WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK OF 55
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, AFTER WHICH THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE TRACKING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST AS AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WHEN
INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS BEGIN TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P
(NORA) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
003
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS32 PGTW 251500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 158.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 158.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.0S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.5S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.3S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.2S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.7S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 158.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM WEST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 158.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 158.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.4S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.9S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.7S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.8S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.0S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 158.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER AND OCCLUDING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR LOOP AND A 251859Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS A
BROAD LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 17P HAS A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT NO ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC IRIS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND DEFLECT
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND, REDUCING TC 17P TO A 30 KNOT SYSTEM BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM, COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND VARIATIONS IN THE
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD DEFLECTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 158.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 158.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.1S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.8S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.5S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.4S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.6S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 158.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT TC 17P HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER, NO ORGANIZED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIALLY, TC
17P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE
BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND WILL CAUSE TC IRIS TO DEFLECT WESTWARD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN, BECOMING A 30 KNOT SYSTEM BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL VARIATIONS IN BOTH
THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. THE LARGE
VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE LEND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 158.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 158.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.1S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.7S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.9S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.3S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 158.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS EXPANSIVE FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK AND FULLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0
TO T2.5. TC 17P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NER TO THE EAST UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE SOUTH
WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM
WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS WILL MAINLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
ITS RAPID DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE WEAK
ORGANIZATION AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z,
270300Z AND 270900Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS32 PGTW 261500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 158.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 158.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.8S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.2S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.9S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.1S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 158.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 158.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 158.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.1S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.3S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.0S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.9S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 158.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A WEAK, PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED ON THE 261800Z PGTW DVORAK FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE KNES AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 TO T2.0. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, POOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 27 TO 28 CELSIUS. TC 17P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST UNTIL TAU 36. AT THAT POINT, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN A WESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNDER
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL TAU 24 WHEN CONVERGENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSES THE
CYCLONE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THE SYSTEM TRACK BUT VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE WESTWARD TRACK SHIFT. THIS UNCERTAINTY
LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.7S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.6S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.9S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 158.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE NEAR THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK FIX POSITIONS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW AND KNES T2.0 (30
KNOTS) DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH A 272231Z
OSCAT PASS SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, POOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27 TO 28 CELSIUS. TC 17P WILL TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST UNTIL TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, CAUSING THE
CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS CONVERGENCE ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST UNTIL TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12,
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE, CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD. BY
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS CONVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN OF THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 158.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 158.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.5S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 158.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED FLARING
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLLAPSED AS IT REMAINED SHEARED
EASTWARD OF A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS NOW BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA, IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
ASCAT DIRECT PASS SHOWING MAXIMUM OF 30 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK
UNDER THE CONVECTION. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD, THE
VWS IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE. THE
COMBINED EFFECT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 011030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 149.0E TO 19.0S 149.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 149.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 148.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 149.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 312348Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL BANDING EASILY
DISCERNABLE IN THE IMAGES. A 312349Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS A
BROAD SWATH OF PRIMARILY 20-25 KNOT WINDS ENCIRCLING THE
DISTURBANCE, WITH PATCHES OF 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT, WITH LIMITED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND A NARROW RIBBON OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SURROUNDED BY HIGHER (20-30 KNOTS) VALUES. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE. THE REMNANTS OF 17P HAVE
GRADUALLY BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM A SUB-TROPICAL STRUCTURE BACK TO
TROPICAL, WITH FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY(FSU) PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM
INDICATING A DEEPENING WARM CORE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER RECENT HOURS IN THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD THE ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE
REMNANTS OF 17P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021030Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011021ZAPR18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0S 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.5S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.9S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.5S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.6S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.5S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 148.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE
REGENERATION OF TC 17P, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 011030). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
(MSI) IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTH. A
012036Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER, AND IN THE TRAILING BAND TO THE NORTH.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI IMAGERY AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A 012248Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 35 KT
WIND BARBS OVER 50NM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER, AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF STATION RECORDING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35 KTS FOR 4 HOURS. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE AGREES WITH THE KNES AND
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION DESPITE MODERATE 15-20 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17P
MADE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY (QS)
IN THE PAST 9 HOURS. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF 17P HAD BEEN SUBTROPICAL
ON 27 MAR, IT RE-ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, GROWING
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM CORE, IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVED NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SUGGESTS
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS AT 36 HOURS. IN THE NEAR
TERM, GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE STORM
MOTION, WITH HWRF AND GFS BEING WESTERN OUTLIERS. ECMWF, NAVGEM, AND
AFUM INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER A POSSIBLE LOOP. IN THE
LONG TERM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRIFURCATED, WITH HWRF AND
GFS MOVING TC 17P CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD AUSTRALIA, COAMPS AND
NAVGEM TRACKING TC 17P SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD, AND ECMWF AND
THE UKMET MODELS SHOWING EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AS A RESULT,
MULTIPLE DISSIPATION SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(JOSIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 148.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 148.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.2S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.3S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.4S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.0S 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 148.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES
TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE WILLIS
ISLAND RADAR LOOP WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU
36. TC 17P IS EXPERIENCING WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT IS GENERALLY
TRACKING AROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 17P WILL TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 014
WTPS32 PGTW 021500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 148.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 148.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.6S 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.0S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.3S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.7S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.7S 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.4S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 148.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.3S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.1S 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.3S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.2S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.6S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 148.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP MASS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION COVERING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CAIRNS ISLAND RADAR LOOP WHICH SHOWS
SOME CLOUD BANDING INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY AN OBSERVATION
FROM FLINDERS REEF SHOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST TO THE WEST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.5 (35 TO 55 KNOTS) AND FLINDERS
REEF OBSERVATIONS REPORTING UP TO 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. TC 17P IS UNDER COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES
WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 17P WILL TRACK
GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL TAU 72 BEFORE DEFLECTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE NER. A FEW MODELS ARE FAVORING AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IN WHICH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION BUILDS IN TO THE
SOUTH AND TRACKS 17P WESTWARD TOWARD LAND AROUND TAU 72. DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.5S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2S 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.7S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.0S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.3S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.7S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.7S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 149.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE SHOWS A
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND WILLIS ISLAND RADAR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTED BY A
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS. TC 17P IS UNDER COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES WITH A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC IRIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NER. AROUND THIS TIME,
THE STR WILL TRANSIT TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH MOVES IN OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY IN
AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE RESULT
OF THE TROUGH OVER AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120, WITH THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW LEVEL
TRACKING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BIFURCATION IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO, AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY, IS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK EASTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NER AND DISSIPATE UNDER INCREASING VWS. DUE
TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z,
032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 149.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 149.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.5S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.1S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.4S 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.7S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.9S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.1S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.1S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 149.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM APPEARS
TO HAVE DISLODGED FROM A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE. HOWEVER, THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE FROM LOW CLOUD
BANDS FEEDING INTO THE LLC THAT IS APPARENT IN THE MSI LOOP. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO LINED UP WITH AN ELONGATED LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 030451Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17P IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VWS. HOWEVER, AN
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE VWS
AND PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 29C
ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC IRIS IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE COMPETING STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST HAS RECEDED WESTWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THIS
TRACK UP TO TAU 36; AFTERWARD, THE STR WILL RE-BUILD AND ONCE AGAIN
COMPETE FOR STEERING, TRIGGERING ANOTHER QS STATE. BY TAU 96, THE
STR WILL EXTEND TO THE SOUTH AND ASSUME STEERING, NUDGING THE CYCLONE
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS AND PROMOTE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION
UP TO 60 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL MOSTLY BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING TOWARD DISSIPATION BY END OF FORECAST. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND BIFURCATED. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS32 PGTW 031500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 150.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 150.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.8S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.2S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.4S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.7S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.7S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.6S 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 150.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.4S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.7S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.8S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.2S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.8S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 150.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS TIGHTLY WRAPPING CONVECTIVE BANDING COVERING THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 031800Z
PGTW RADAR FIX FROM THE MACKAY RADAR LOOP, SUPPORTED BY A 031807Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS FROM CREAL REEF OF UP TO 47 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 17P IS IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOT)
NORTHERLY VWS WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PROVIDING
DIVERGENCE. ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27C. TC IRIS IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NER EXTENSION TO THE
NORTHEAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THIS
TRACK UNTIL TAU 36 AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS. AFTER
TAU 36, THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL RE-BUILD AND ONCE AGAIN
COMPETE FOR STEERING, TRIGGERING ANOTHER QS STATE. AS TC 17P
WEAKENS, IT IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LAYER STEERING FLOW, BEFORE DISSIPATING AT TAU 96
DUE TO THE NORTHERLY VWS. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND BIFURCATED AFTER TAU 24. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT
IS LAID SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
EASTWARD BIFURCATED TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND
042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.6S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.6S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.8S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.5S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.2S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 150.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER, PARTIALLY COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND 00Z PGTW FIX, SUPPORTED BY A 032010Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A PARTIALLY CLOSED LOW REFLECTIVITY DIMPLE
AT THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 032249Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALING SEVERAL 50 KT WINDS BARBS CLOSE TO THE CENTER, AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 46 KT SUSTAINED OBSERVATION FROM 68NM AWAY, IMPLYING
HIGHER WINDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY AGREES WITH THE
PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KNES CI OF T3.0 (45 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 17P IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND THERE IS CONVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE
NORTHWEST, BOTH OF WHICH ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THESE
UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCES ARE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27C. TC 17P HAS BEGUN
TO INGEST DRY AIR FROM THE WEST, DIMINISHING ITS CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE BUT NOT YET LEADING TO WEAKENING. TC IRIS IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THIS TRACK UNTIL TAU 36 AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VWS. AT TAU 36, A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FURTHER, AND
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST RECEDES, LEADING TO A
QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD. AS TC 17P DEGRADES, IT WILL BECOME SUBJECT
TO MID-LAYER AND SHALLOW STEERING FLOW FROM THE TROUGH, AND TC 17P
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND TRIFURCATED AFTER TAU 24, WITH
COAMPS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS TRACKING TC 17P OVER OCEAN TO THE EAST,
MANY MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF EXECUTING A LOOP AND MOVING TC
17P EITHER NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, AND THE WESTERN OUTLIER
HWRF PREDICTING A LOOP AND THEN WESTWARD TRACK. IN LIGHT OF THIS,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
EASTWARD OUTLYING TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.3S 151.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 151.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.4S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.5S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.4S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 151.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A MOSTLY-EXPOSED LLC WITH
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VISIBLE
LLC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 040435Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF
TC 17P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY INTO A COL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAKENING NER TO THE NORTHEAST. IRIS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO A
QUASI-STATIONARY STATE IN THE COL BETWEEN THE NER AND THE STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST. DURING THIS PHASE, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RECURVE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR EVENTUALLY DOMINATES AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES.
ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND STEADILY ERODE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND
TRIFURCATED WITH COAMPS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS TRACKING TC 17P
EASTWARD, SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF RECURVING IT
EQUATORWARD, AND THE HWRF PREDICTING A WESTWARD TRACK. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT
IS LAID SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
THE EASTWARD OUTLYING TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z, AND
050900Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPS32 PGTW 041500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 151.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 151.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.7S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.7S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.6S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.2S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.1S 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 151.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 151.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 151.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.8S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.7S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.4S 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.9S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.8S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 151.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PARTLY-EXPOSED LLCC PEEKING OUT OF THE CONVECTIVE DENSE OVERCAST
REGION THAT HAS REFORMED OVER 17P IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM LOW CLOUD BANDS
FEEDING INTO THE CLOUD COVERED LLCC OBSERVED IN EIR IMAGERY. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY 041425Z AMSR2 91 GHZ AND 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) THAT ARE VALIDATED BY A 041600Z
OBSERVATION FROM CREAL REEF REPORTING 42 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW IN AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE (27 TO 28
CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A NER EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE VWS. AS 17P IS SHEARED FROM
THE TOP DOWN, IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)
STATE BEFORE RECURVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A 700 MB STR TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVENTUAL EQUATORWARD U-TURN, BUT WITH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. FOR THIS REASON THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID
JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD OF MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.4S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.2S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.8S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 152.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC TO THE NORTH OF
STRUGGLING, PERIODICALLY FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE PGTW 00Z FIX
POSITION. A 042325Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS OVER 100NM TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 34-37
KTS, AS WELL AS A 042127Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KTS. THIS ESTIMATE
IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW AND KNES 00Z FIXES OF CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) T2.5 (35 KTS) BUT BELOW THE ABRF CI OF T3.0 (45 KTS). A
042326Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS REVEALS A PATCH OF 35-39 KT WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST, AND A BROAD SWATH OF 30-34 KT WINDS SURROUNDING TC
17P WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST SECTOR. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW IN AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VWS, WHICH IS PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE
(27 TO 28 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH IS RECEDING AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TC 17P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE
TO THE UNFAVORABLE VWS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION, DROPPING BELOW 35 KTS AFTER 36 HOURS. AS TC 17P IS
SHEARED FROM THE TOP DOWN, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A 700 MB STR TO THE SOUTHWEST,
WHICH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED OVER RECENT RUNS TO AGREE
UPON A GENERAL U-TURN AND THEN NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTION, BUT
WITH REMAINING DIFFERENCES IN HOW TIGHTLY TC 17P TURNS NORTHWARD
AND THE TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND FOR THIS REASON TGERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z,
052100Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 025
WTPS32 PGTW 050900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 152.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 152.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.1S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.5S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 152.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM NORTH
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
026
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 153.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 153.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.3S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.5S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.7S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.0S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.1S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 153.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM NORTH
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC OBSERVED IN THE
EIR LOOP. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 051741Z SSMI/S 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING CLOUD BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 051800Z
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW USING THE SHEAR METHOD. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TC 17P IS CURRENTLY IN ITS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE DUE TO A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO
VWS, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION
BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS TC 17P EXITS ITS QS
STATE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID JUST FASTER THAN CONSENSUS,
FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
TRACK SPEED, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.9S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.1S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.0S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.2S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.3S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 153.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE EXPOSED LLCC.
THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 060026Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE 060000Z PGTW DVORAK FIX OF CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) T3.0
(45 KTS), ABOVE THE KNES FIX OF CI T2.5 (35 KTS), AND SUPPORTED BY A
38 KT OBSERVATION 70NM TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH A 051944Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN
UNCERTAIN STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND A MIDLEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 17P IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL
STEERING FLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNDER PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HIGH
VWS AND A FORMING UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION AT 72 HOURS. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED AN IMMEDIATE TURN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST THAT HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS, AS THE TIMING WHEN TC 17P WILL MAKE THE EXPECTED TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS UNCLEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED AND
WHEN TC 17P WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.7S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.9S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.9S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.8S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.6S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION SHEARED 150NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 060540Z
HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 060525Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40
KNOTS. THIS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHICH IS UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
(20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT INDICATING A NORTHWARD TRACK. AS TC 17P TRACKS NORTHWARD IT
WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TC 17P WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 BUT
NAVGEM CONTINUES TO INDICATE INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 72.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 153.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 153.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.3S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.3S 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.2S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 153.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 061134Z AMSU 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE LLCC AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS AVERAGED BETWEEN A 060814Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS AND A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
INDICATING A NORTHWARD TRACK. AS TC 17P TRACKS NORTHWARD IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
THROUGH TAU 36. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TC 17P
WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 OR SOONER BUT NAVGEM CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z,
070900Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 153.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 153.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.3S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 153.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. A 061728Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES LIMITED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF 25-30 KNOT GRADIENT
WINDS, AND WEAK, FRAGMENTED BANDING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM MARION REEF VERIFY THE 25-30 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WHILE LIHOU REEF AND A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION SUPPORT MUCH WEAKER
WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL WIND
STRUCTURE AS DEPICTED IN RECENT ASCAT. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING. AS SHOWN IN THE NAVGEM MODEL, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE SYSTEM TO REGENERATE IN 3-4 DAYS AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD OVER
WARMER WATER. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING INFLUENCE (SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE WEST). THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12
FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_iris.htm | Updated: 9 April 2018 |