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Tropical Cyclone IRVING Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1S 94.0E TO 13.5S 86.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 93.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 94.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
PARTIALLY COVERED BY FLARING CONVECTION. A 050938Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE
AND 050918Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION ONLY IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE, AND FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. 95S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH
(30-40 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WOULD IMPINGE UPON
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONVERGED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS, PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS. WHILE 95S HAS
REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS, IT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061400Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.1S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.8S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.9S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.6S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.4S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.5S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.1S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1173 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 052340Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING,
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND SHALLOW BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC
04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. TC 04S SHOULD
STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A
PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z,
062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 051400).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 90.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.2S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.2S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.6S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.9S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.2S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.1S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1108 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 060550Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BOTH POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (27 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 04S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z,
070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.7S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.9S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.0S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.3S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.4S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 41.6S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WHICH NOW SURROUNDS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 061130Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON IMPROVING
STORM STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BOTH POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (27 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 04S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE
AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND
071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.9S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.4S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.6S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 35.0S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 44.5S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 87.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 994 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 061941Z GMI
37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, THIS IMAGE SHOWS A CYAN RING,
WHICH TYPICALLY CAN SIGNAL AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE.
A 061602Z ASCAT BULLS-EYE SHOWED 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM ALL
AGENCIES. TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. TC 04S
SHOULD INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK
OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 60. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z,
071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 87.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 87.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.6S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.4S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.2S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.8S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.6S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 954 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A WEAK,
DEVELOPING EYE. A 070021Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A CYAN RING, WHICH TYPICALLY
SIGNALS AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.5S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.2S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 070550Z HIMAWARI ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TC 04S SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z,
080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.8S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.3S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.5S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 39.0S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 071033Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5
(77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC
04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TC 04S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 90
KNOTS BY TAU 36 BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL
RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC
IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 83.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 83.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.4S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.6S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.2S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 43.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 82.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (INCREASING INTENSITY FROM 45 KNOTS TO 90
KNOTS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH EYEWALL CONVECTION SURROUNDING AN
11NM EYE. A 071624Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
EYEWALL OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0
FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.6S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.7S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.2S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.4S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.1S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 45.1S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
365 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 80.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 786 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH AN ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A RAGGED 15NM EYE. A 072204Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 04S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS THROUGH
TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48,
TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96
AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.5S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.3S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.2S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.4S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
310 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 79.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 761 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AND AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A
CLEARLY DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 080429Z AMSU
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A WELL DEFINED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
(26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TC 04S
WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC
IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.4S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.9S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.7S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 40.3S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
305 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 77.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 763 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION WHICH IS BEGINNING
TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 081043Z
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND A 081041Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 92 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A WELL DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN TURN SOUTHWARD. BY TAU 48, TC 04S WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.2S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.8S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.1S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.7S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 42.9S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
475 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
490 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CENTRALLY LOCATED PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 081604Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A
CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 91 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 27
DEGREES CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL
DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
TURNING SOUTHWARD INITIALLY, BEFORE IT ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AROUND TAU 48, TC IRVING WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC
IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 WHEN IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TAKES ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 75.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.3S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.1S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.1S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 34.4S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 43.2S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 74.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CENTRALLY LOCATED DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OCCLUDING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
082157Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 83 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 27 CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND NO ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36 WHEN IT WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AROUND TAU 48, TC IRVING WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 74.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.1S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.7S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.5S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.3S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 73.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DETERIORATING BANDING FEATURES
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN AN
090409Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A 090230Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE EAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CREATING
SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
ROBUST FEEDING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 04S IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
WILL KEEP TS 04S ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 26 CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE AS TC 04S
TRACKS POLEWARD. THE COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH TC 04S BRINGING INCREASED WIND SHEAR
AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.6S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 35.8S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.5S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
525 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
515 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 71.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 861 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND AN 091020Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE THAT
WHEN COMPARED TO THE RESPECTIVE 89GHZ CHANNEL REFLECTS A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO
77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST TO BE THE CAUSE OF OBSERVED WIND SHEAR WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST FEEDING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WILL KEEP TS 04S ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 26 CELSIUS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECLINE RAPIDLY AS TC 04S TRACKS POLEWARD. THE COOLER
WATERS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH TC 04S BRINGING INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AFUM AND JGSM BEING NOTABLE
WESTWARD OUTLIERS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WIDER TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THESE TWO OUTLIERS THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 70.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 70.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.1S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.7S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.2S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 44.9S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
375 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 70.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 769 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM
A 091410Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND 091638Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS SHEARED
SLIGHTLY FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS HEDGED BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL.TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 12, AFTER WHICH THE TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AS TC 04S
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING TOUGH WHICH WILL INTRODUCE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH, COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THE WEAKENING TREND. TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH JGSM BEING THE PRINCIPLE
WESTWARD OUTLIER, SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WIDER TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS. DESPITE THESE TWO OUTLIERS THE
OVERALL AGREEMENT OF THE REMAINING OUTLIERS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 35.5S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DISSIPATING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND A 092302Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT REMAINING CONVECTION
IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS SHEARED AROUND 100 NM
FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS,
SLIGHTLY BELOW A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW BASED ON THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF COOLER (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND NO EQUATORWARD OUTLFOW. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS.
AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
TOUGH WHICH WILL INTRODUCE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH,
COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AND BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. TC IRVING IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 33.0S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.0S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
350 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 47.1S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
545 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
570 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9S 68.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 753 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO
45 KNOTS) AND A 100332Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SOLID REGION OF 4O
KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET
WITH WIND SHEAR STARTING INCREASE. TC 04S IS TRACKING EXPEDITIOUSLY
AT 22 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A FAST APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. TC
04S WILL RAPIDLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY TIGHT GROUPING AND OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 30.2S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 36.4S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.8S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 31.8S 69.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 27
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET WITH WIND SHEAR STARTING INCREASE.
TC 04S IS TRACKING EXPEDITIOUSLY AT 24 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A FAST APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN
TRANSITIONING INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. TC 04S WILL RAPIDLY COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY TIGHT GROUPING AND
OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S
(FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 33.4S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.6S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 35.2S 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 101754Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD,
DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. TC 04S IS RAPIDLY
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN A STRONG
MIDLATITUDE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_irving.htm | Updated: 24 January 2018 |