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Tropical Cyclone JOYCE
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Tropical Cyclone JOYCE Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 090230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S 126.1E TO 17.7S 120.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 125.9E , APPROXIMATELY 247 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 090045Z
AMSU METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO LLCC. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY
REVEALS AN AREA OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24 AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER
WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 123.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.0S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.9S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.1S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.9S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 123.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
HAS ASSESSED THAT DESPITE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S BEING LOCATED OVER
LAND, INTENSIFICATION TO BASIN WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WILL OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER.
ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. A 091809Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND ALSO
SHOWS WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON CYCLONIC
TURNING EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED IR LOOP AND BROAD TURNING EVIDENT IN
THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY (ABOM) ANIMATED RADAR LOOP. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS VERY BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM NEAR THE AREA OF THE STORM WHICH ARE FROM 18 TO 22
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND ONCE IT TRACKS
OVER WATER, WILL BE IN AN AREA OF VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, EXITING OVER WATER PRIOR TO TAU
12. ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THE TRACK
DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN AFTER
TAU 12 AND TRACK BACK OVER LAND SOUTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU
24. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND, ENABLED BY A HIGH MOISTURE CONTINENTAL ENVIRONMENT, EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT HOWEVER, THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 123.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.9S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.8S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.3S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.8S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.4S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 122.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
HAS ASSESSED THAT DESPITE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S BEING LOCATED OVER
LAND, INTENSIFICATION TO BASIN WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WILL
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER
THEREFORE JUSTIFYING THE ISSUE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 092255Z
89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS DEEP CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC AND ALSO SHOWS WEAK BANDING LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL AND THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY ANIMATED RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
SHOWING 25 TO 27 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND ONCE IT
TRACKS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN WEST OF AUSTRALIA, IT WILL BE IN AN
AREA OF VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 05S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, EXITING
OVER WATER AROUND TAU 6. ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY. THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
AROUND TAU 36. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN,
MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60 DUE TO
HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE OVERLAND TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, VARYING ON THE SPEED OF THE TURN MEANING THAT SOME MODELS
HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING ENTIRELY OVERLAND WHILE OTHERS TRACK
FARTHER WEST OVER WATER. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z,
101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA)
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 122.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.2S 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.1S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.2S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.3S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.2S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.7S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 122.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CIRCULATION FEATURE NOW OFFSHORE WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT RAIN BUT
HIGHLIGHTING THE CENTER OF ROTATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KNOTS) AND THE HIGHEST REPORTED WIND OBSERVATION IN THE REGION
FROM ADELE ISLAND REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 21 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE IN EXCESS OF 30
CELSIUS AND VERY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 05S HAS
UNEXPECTEDLY TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS
UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONE MID TO LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
NORTHWESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA SHIFTING
TC 05S TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TC 05S WILL
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE WARM OPEN WATER AND WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 TC 05S WILL MAKE
LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEADLAND AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. LAND
INTERACTION AS TC 05S TRACKS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SUPPORT FOR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BUT DIFFERS IN THE TRACK
TRAJECTORY AS A RESULT OF THE NEAR-TERM COMPETING STEERING RIDGES.
OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.6S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.5S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.7S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.1S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.3S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.6S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 122.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTH
OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE CAPE LEVEQUE, AUSTRALIA SHOWING
LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT RAIN WITH INCREASING INTENSITY
AND THE GENERAL ROTATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON BOTH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND THE HIGHEST REPORTED WIND
OBSERVATION IN THE REGION FROM ADELE ISLAND REPORTING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 29 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SSTS IN THE
AREA ARE IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS AND VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. TC 05S HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONE MID TO LOW
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
NORTHWESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA SHIFTING
TC 05S TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TC 05S WILL
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE WARM OPEN WATER AND WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS. NEAR TAU 48 TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF
PORT HEADLAND AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. LAND INTERACTION AS TC 05S
TRACKS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FULLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUPPORT FOR THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BUT DIFFERS IN THE TRACK TRAJECTORY AS A RESULT
OF THE NEAR-TERM COMPETING STEERING RIDGES. OVERALL THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND
111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 122.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 122.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.3S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.4S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.7S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.4S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.6S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 29.9S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 122.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH
OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
101923Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED CENTER.
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
BROOME AIRPORT INDICATE SLP NEAR 997MB, A 4.8MB DECREASE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OBSERVATIONS FROM ADELE ISLAND INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) OF 33 KNOTS GUSTING TO
39 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. TC 05S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED, NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 05S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN STEADILY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, VERY
FAVORABLE SST (30-31C), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INTERACTION
WITH THE FLAT, MOIST LAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT
SIGNIFICANTLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A 115NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36, THEREFORE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND LANDFALL LOCATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.8S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.0S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.4S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.2S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.5S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 121.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102147Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOME PORT INDICATE SLP NEAR
996MB, A 6.5MB DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND 10-MINUTE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 36 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 46 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS),
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ADJUSTED TO A 1-
MINUTE AVERAGE. TC 05S IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD AFTER
TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED,
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC
05S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, VERY FAVORABLE
SST (30-31C), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INTERACTION WITH THE
FLAT, MOIST LAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT
SIGNIFICANTLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A 107NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36, THEREFORE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND LANDFALL LOCATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.5S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.7S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.3S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.2S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.5S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 121.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM ABOM PROVIDES A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
APPROXIMATELY 44NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AND IS THE BASIS
FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) AND A 0145Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOTS
OVER OPEN WATER MATCHING WELL WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF NEARBY
ISLANDS ADELE AND ROWLEY SHOALS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOW A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE EXTREMELY WARM, ABOVE 30 CELSIUS. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CONTINENT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS
CURRENTLY STEERING TC 05S ON A TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TC 05S IS TRACKING OVER OPEN
WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 24 TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND
AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND
WHERE TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITH APPROXIMATELY 130NM SPREAD
ALONG THE COASTLINE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. NOTABLY ECMWF IS THE WESTERN
MOST OUTLIER, JUST OUTSIDE OF THE NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 121.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.1S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.5S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.2S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.3S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 121.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM ABOM PROVIDES A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND LOCATED
JUST OFFSHORE APPROXIMATELY 40NM WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AND IS
THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOW A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE EXTREMELY WARM, ABOVE 30
CELSIUS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CONTINENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 05S ON A TRACK SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WHILE TC 05S IS TRACKING OVER OPEN WATER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 18 TC 05S WILL MAKE
LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT BUT THERE
STILL EXISTS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND WHERE TC 05S WILL
MAKE LANDFALL WITH APPROXIMATELY 110NM SPREAD ALONG THE COASTLINE
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIERS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.9S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.4S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.3S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.6S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 121.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 59 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S
IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST, WHICH IS
HINDERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND WILL TRACK FURTHER
INLAND. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED
ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (45
KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND
122100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.8S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.5S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.6S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 120.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME
DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS AT MANDORA, 15NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER, ARE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS FROM 35
TO 42 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 990MB, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AND INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM APRF.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST, WHICH IS HINDERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE
SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.1S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.1S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.4S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 120.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED
BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 120111Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A
REGION OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN EDGE. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM MANDORA ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS ENE AT 30 KTS AND A SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 980MB FURTHER SUPPORTING BOTH THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
WARM SSTS AND A POINT SOURCE OVER TC 05S. A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S ON A TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 121500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.8S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.9S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.2S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 119.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM EAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYSTEM NOW INLAND WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH SATELLITE FIXES AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BANDS WITH A
CENTRAL VORTEX JUST EAST OF THE STATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BEDOUT ISLAND
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S
ON A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING OF AUSTRALIA.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_hilda.htm | Updated: 24 January 2018 |