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Tropical Cyclone KELVIN
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone KELVIN Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 151400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7S 125.0E TO 19.1S 119.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 128.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151113Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH RESURGENT
FLARING CONVECTION. THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON
THE COAST, DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS STILL OVER
LAND. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF
91S ARE FUELING THE DEEP CONVECTION. 91S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, WHICH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION FROM THE
LLCC. FAVORABLE WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS) AND LOWER VWS AWAIT 91S
ONCE IT EMERGES OVER WATER TO THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT
91S WILL TRACK OVER WATER IN 18-24 HOURS AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161400Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZFEB2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.1S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.2S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.7S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM WEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 160600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AND THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 160143Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS, BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH VERY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 10S,
ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LITTLE MOVEMENT AS TC 10S BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 10S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEARLY 100NM WIDE
SPREAD WHEN TC 10S MAKES LANDFALL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 151400).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 120.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 120.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.7S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.2S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.7S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.4S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 120.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 10S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 161046Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A CLEAR
CIRCULATION AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A T2.0 (30 KNOTS) DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH STRONG
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING
FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 10S, ALLOWING FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. TC 10S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LITTLE MOVEMENT AS TC 10S BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 36 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 10S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEARLY 100NM WIDE
SPREAD WHEN TC 10S MAKES LANDFALL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND
171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.3S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.8S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.8S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.4S 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 120.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER
FROM THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON ANIMATED MULTI AND A 162159Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
INDICATING THAT LOW LEVEL BANDING IS WRAPPING INTO AN LLCC
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
RECENT ANIMATION FROM THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR SHOWS THIS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING BUT DOES NOT PICK UP ON THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND A 170000Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATION OF T2.8 (41 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH
STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 10S, ALLOWING
FOR INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCES OF COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPER
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING
EARLIER LANDFALL BY TAU 30, CONTRIBUTING TO STEADY SPIN DOWN AND
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE AS TO THE SHARPNESS OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN. THE SPEED
OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. MODELS ARE
CONSOLIDATING BUT STILL SHOW A 60 NM SPREAD WHEN TC 10S MAKES
LANDFALL LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 120.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 120.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.1S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.6S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.5S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.0S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.9S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SWEEPING BAND OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A MORE PERSISTENT AREA
OF CONVECTION CO-LOCATED WITH THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 170600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A 170122Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS SEVERAL 40 KNOT
WIND BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE,
RANGING FROM 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 10S WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 10S WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH ALL
MODELS NOW INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK PRIOR TO LANDFALL
FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.6S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.4S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.6S 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.9S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 120.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 171033Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND A 171033Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH STRONG
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE, RANGING FROM 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
10S WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 10S WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 12 WITH AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 10S WILL THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD, EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY. TC 10S WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD TRACK. BASED ON IMPROVED MODEL
AGREEMENT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 172100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AMENDED //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 007A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.9S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.0S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.5S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.2S 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A BROADENING AREA OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME
REVEALS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 171930Z PGTW RADAR
FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED
ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 171932Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY A 171710Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 61 KNOTS, DESPITE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE
OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S CREATING FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER POINT SOURCE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST IS CONVERGING WITH ANY
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE NEARBY POINT SOURCE, THE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 10S IS
INITIALLY TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC 10S
WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA BY TAU 6 AND WILL
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION, AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE EAST AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT:
CHANGED INITIAL LOCATION AND INTENSITY TO 60 KTS AND FORECAST TO
REFLECT HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.1S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.4S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.0S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.7S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 121.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (KELVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD EYE WALL WITH DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME REVEALS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL INNER EYEWALL NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 172219Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING SURROUNDING THE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF EIR
IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171913Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 10S
WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TOP OF TC 10S AS WELL. THIS
RESULTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 10S IS NOW OVER LAND AND SO IS NO
LONGER SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE SSTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION, TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY THROUGH
TAU 12 AS IS COMMONLY SEEN IN THIS REGION. TC 10S WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TURNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE EAST AND STEADILY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_kelvin.htm | Updated: 9 March 2018 |