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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: 13th October 1998 |
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 08:38:00 +1000 Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Soundings Updated... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well evreybody! Things are loking good for us! We had our early shower this morning........actualy a very heavy one at that. It has cleared over, fine day, but already cumulus over the barrington tops developing! Now just a wait and see game. I had a good chance to look at the couple of cells last night...the one over Nth QLd was great, but there was also a couple in the NT area too.....looked great on the NASA colour enhanced pic. Also had a look at TC about to hit Manilla...it is looking better by the hour. I noticed that Guam is prediciting 125knot winds in 48 hours or so! Man thats fast! Lets all hope, wait & see that we get some action tonight!! Paul from Taree. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Soundings Updated... Date: Mon, 12 Oct 1998 23:26:47 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id JAA00628 On Mon, 12 Oct 1998 21:12:55 +1000 (EST), Paul wrote: >> Go to http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/profile.html and follow the >> instructions. These are reasonable soundings to use as a basis. > >Caution using this data since it is output from a model and may not >reflect the real situation very accurately. - Paul. > > Actually, Paul, there's an argument that says the reverse may be true. The analysis on which the model (in this case the US MRF) model is based takes observational data from an enormous number of sources (surface obs, balloon ascents, satellite image interpretation, aircraft inflight obs, etc) to build a detailed 3-d picture of the atmosphere at 00 or 12UTC daily. The "sounding" you get by following the link Jimmy gave is simply a vertical slice through this 3-d picture at the location you nominate. It is simplified, compared to an actual balloon ascent results, because the local influences have been removed and there are fewer vertical levels. On the other hand it is likely to be more representative of the general conditions than the figures received from a single balloon rising through a single column of air. I think each has its own use -- the real sounding will be very accurate, and contain any localised effects; the MRF "sounding" will be more generalised and lack the detail, but is based on much more information. Laurier Williams Australian Weather Links and News http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 10:01:10 +1000 (EST) From: Paul GrahamTo: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Soundings Updated... Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Quite true Laurier, but it might not detect local scale effects such as a sea breeze frontal inversion (or the short wave short wave fronts we often get in the summer) or a larger scale phenomena such as a nocturnal radiative inversion. Shallow deviations in the trace may also become less clear. On the whole, it does show the large scale subsidence inversion from the high pressure we've been having quit nicely. - Paul. > > > > > Actually, Paul, there's an argument that says the reverse may be true. > > > The analysis on which the model (in this case the US MRF) model is > based takes observational data from an enormous number of sources > (surface obs, balloon ascents, satellite image interpretation, > aircraft inflight obs, etc) to build a detailed 3-d picture of the > atmosphere at 00 or 12UTC daily. The "sounding" you get by following > the link Jimmy gave is simply a vertical slice through this 3-d > picture at the location you nominate. It is simplified, compared to an > actual balloon ascent results, because the local influences have been > removed and there are fewer vertical levels. On the other hand it is > likely to be more representative of the general conditions than the > figures received from a single balloon rising through a single column > of air. > > I think each has its own use -- the real sounding will be very > accurate, and contain any localised effects; the MRF "sounding" will > be more generalised and lack the detail, but is based on much more > information. > > Laurier Williams > Australian Weather Links and News > http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Struck Gold!!! Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 00:08:02 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id KAA05007 On Mon, 12 Oct 1998 23:10:07 +1000 (EST), you wrote: >I have to say that many times in the past I have searched in vain for >Aerological diagrams for Australia but at last I have struck gold. Check >out: > >http://www-das.uwyo.edu/upperair/au.html > >This is the best I have seen to date - found it just by searching for >upper air diagrams. Perhaps they have only just recently started >providing this? Oh well, might as well give up with idea of starting my >own site... > You Beauty! Fantastic find, Paul! It appears to be able to plot all the internationally exchanged upper air data from Australia -- which is everything we do, because the upper air TEMP and PILOT bulletins we send out on the WMO circuit contain all operational upper air ascents. So the diagrams you can get aren't limited to the locations on the 8 map -- just type in the ICAO code or WMO number for a location, and bingo!, all 50 or so Aussie ascents are available. The most useful ones for Sydney are: 94776 or YSWM for Williamtown 94750 or YSNW for Nowra 94910 or YSWG for Wagga 94711 for Cobar I'll get this link up on my website, along with a list of location codes and available times for all Australia so that we can maximise its usefulness. Note that Sydney Airport only does ascents at the totally non-standard times of 20 and 05 UTC, and these aren't picked up by the time intervals (00 and 12 UTC). Also note that the only stations to do 12 UTC ascents are 94120 Darwin 94302 Learmonth (North West Cape) 94610 Perth 94672 Adelaide 94578 Brisbane 94711 Cobar 94865 Melbourne (Laverton) 94975 Hobart Bad luck, Sydneysiders!!! Final note -- the programmers who have done this have done a nice job given the inconsistencies of Australian data at present. Oz is the only country in the world (so far as I know) that mixes data in old and new formats in the one internationally exchanged data bulletin. The new format includes 925hPa as a standard level, and requires all wind reports to be included in the one bulletin. The old format placed wind reports in separate (PILOT code) bulletins, and had no 925hPa standard level. This is the reason that some locations give many more wind feathers on the diagram than others. Laurier Williams Australian Weather Links and News http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 10:17:10 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Struck Gold!!! Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > 94865 Melbourne (Laverton) - there must be more than one town by the name of Laverton in Australia - I thought the data was from WA but I guess I must be wrong. - Paul. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Struck Gold!!! Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 00:26:02 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id KAA05506 On Tue, 13 Oct 1998 10:17:10 +1000 (EST), you wrote: >> 94865 Melbourne (Laverton) >- there must be more than one town by the name of Laverton in Australia - >I thought the data was from WA but I guess I must be wrong. >- Paul. > Hi Paul Laverton WA is a couple of hundred km north of Kalgoorlie and has both a manual and auto weather station, but definitely isn't big enough to justify a met office! Laverton Vic is somewhere near Werribee, between Melbourne and Geelong, and is an Air Force Base. It does ascents at 00 and 12z (which are really done at 23 and 11z, and at 22 and 10z during daylight saving). Laurier -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Soundings Updated... Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 10:32:58 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Of course here in Wollongong the west change moved through at 8am killing off any chance of storms, catellanus is on the NE horizon, which bids well from say Newcastle northwards. Looks like another frustrating season coming up where everybody but here seems to get the action. Michael >Well evreybody! Things are loking good for us! We had our early shower >this morning........actualy a very heavy one at that. It has cleared over, >fine day, but already cumulus over the barrington tops developing! Now just >a wait and see game. I had a good chance to look at the couple of cells >last night...the one over Nth QLd was great, but there was also a couple in >the NT area too.....looked great on the NASA colour enhanced pic. Also had >a look at TC about to hit Manilla...it is looking better by the hour. I >noticed that Guam is prediciting 125knot winds in 48 hours or so! Man thats >fast! Lets all hope, wait & see that we get some action tonight!! > >Paul from Taree. > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 10:33:01 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: Aussie Weather Subject: aussie-weather: Storms? Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Station number 94711 (Cobar?) indicates possible cloud tops close to 10000m if a surface temperature in the high 20's is achieved. Sig. dry air associated with subsidence at around 4290m - keep an eye out for warnings later on. - Paul. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 10:34:57 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: Aussie Weather Subject: aussie-weather: Re: Storms? Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com CAPE doesn't appear to be terribly high though... On Tue, 13 Oct 1998, Paul Graham wrote: > Station number 94711 (Cobar?) indicates possible cloud tops close > to 10000m if a surface temperature in the high 20's is achieved. Sig. dry > air associated with subsidence at around 4290m - keep an eye out for > warnings later on. > - Paul. > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 10:46:11 +1000 Subject: aussie-weather: Storms!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sorry to hear Michael that you are not going to get any action!! But rest assured the rest of us will keep you informed! paul from Taree. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: hdewit at postoffice.sa.bom.gov.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 10:01:29 +0900 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Hank de Wit Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Struck Gold!!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Paul, Laverton is in Victoria, near Melbourne. Bureau details: Laverton 94865 YMLV (old) YLVT (new) 37.87S 144.75E Hank At 10:17 13/10/98 +1000, Paul Graham wrote: >> 94865 Melbourne (Laverton) >- there must be more than one town by the name of Laverton in Australia - >I thought the data was from WA but I guess I must be wrong. >- Paul. Hank de Wit Regional Computer Manager South Australia H.deWit at BoM.gov.au ph: 08 8366 2674 http://www.sa.bom.gov.au/~hdewit (Internal access only) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aussie-weather: GOES imagery Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 11:33:41 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.2106.4 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In the 23.32 UTZ visible image, to NNW of Darwin (PNG?) there are 3 plumes apparently flowing NE-SW - can anyone tell me what they are - the IR didn't really give me a clue (smoke from fires or streaming anvils???) http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes Thanks, Jane Melbourne PS: a grey cool day with Sc streaming from the SW down here - the only site keeping me vaguely sane is http://www.energex.com.au/strike/strike.cgi (you lucky sods!!) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Struck Gold!!! Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 02:27:58 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id MAA10517 The 00 UTC (9am EST) upper air diagrams at http://www-das.uwyo.edu/upperair/au.html came online sometime between 11.30 and noon EST. As the bulletins of raw data only go out from the Bureau in Melbourne at 11.30 (i.e. 90 minutes after nominal obs time of 00 UTC) that is a good response time. It'll be interesting to see what happens after daylight saving cuts in, though -- the balloons will go up at 22 UTC, but the upper air data bulletins will still carry a 00 UTC header and may not therefore be available until 02 UTC -- 4 hours old! BTW, the map on the above page changes to reflect which locations have observations for the most current date/time -- neat, eh! Laurier Williams Australian Weather Links and News http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 12:56:49 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: aussie-weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just south and SW of Brisbane is firing with a warning current for hail and squally winds. Check out the Energex lightning page and BoM warnings Also somes cells or showers have developed near Moree in the NW - SE line. The trough seems to have pushed north quite a bit. Keep us up to date Paul. Michael At 12:49 PM 13/10/1998 +1000, you wrote: >Hey people! Updates?? Whats happening around the places?? Any developments >yet?? We at Taree are getting some developing cumulus streaming from the >west............but with a bit of haze hard to see if any real development >yet. > >How about you james in Brisbane? Any developments yet? > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to: > > majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > *==========================================================* Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: bayns at nornet.nor.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 13:16:41 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: steve baynham Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com hey, a storm just passed over the gold coast! there was thunder...there it goes again, was some lightning flashes and a bit of rain! no wind at all. it came up from the south just 15 minutes ago! steve baynham, Gold Coast, National Storm Chase News :) bye -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 13:46:55 +1000 Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: aussie-weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com will do Michael. We have some cumulus congestus developing at my front door at the moment......so there has been a change in the upper atmosphere - and there is now more organised development ...so lets hope. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: GOES imagery Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 04:02:11 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id OAA16436 On Tue, 13 Oct 1998 11:33:41 +1000, Jane wrote: >In the 23.32 UTZ visible image, to NNW of Darwin (PNG?) there are 3 plumes >apparently flowing NE-SW - can anyone tell me what they are - the IR didn't >really give me a clue (smoke from fires or streaming anvils???) >http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes > Hi Jane I can't access that URL -- it appears to call a cgi script which won't function for me. On a quick look at the 2332z image via NOAA, there are streaming anvils above several islands in the Indonesian archipelago. The 0030z water vapour image (there isn't a 23.32z one) confirms that the plumes are water vapour. Just normal diurnal storm activity? Laurier -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aussie-weather: GOES imagery Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 14:09:27 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.2106.4 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks for that, Laurier. BTW, which browser are you using? I had the same problem accessing that page with IE4.0 so I changed over to Netscape and it works a treat - now have 2 browsers up all the time to cope with this. Jane Melbourne >On Tue, 13 Oct 1998 11:33:41 +1000, Jane wrote: > >>In the 23.32 UTZ visible image, to NNW of Darwin (PNG?) there are 3 plumes >>apparently flowing NE-SW - can anyone tell me what they are - the IR didn't >>really give me a clue (smoke from fires or streaming anvils???) >>http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes >> >Hi Jane > >I can't access that URL -- it appears to call a cgi script which won't >function for me. > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 14:09:37 +1000 Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com NEWS NEWS NEWS!!! Taree & Mid north coast has just been issued with a Severe storm warning, for between 3pm & 8pm tonight ()so the radio says - I donthave internet access at work )....so if anybody is there, can u check the net and see what the warning is for & where! Thanx!! paul from Taree. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: bayns at nornet.nor.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 14:13:09 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: steve baynham Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: aussie-weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 12:56 PM 10/13/98, you wrote: >Just south and SW of Brisbane is firing with a warning current for hail and >squally winds. Check out the Energex lightning page and BoM warnings > >Also somes cells or showers have developed near Moree in the NW - SE line. >The trough seems to have pushed north quite a bit. Keep us up to date Paul. > >Michael >Hey, this is Steve from the gold coasts' flat mate and I am dieing to know whether or not the hail is going to hit up our way??? >At 12:49 PM 13/10/1998 +1000, you wrote: >>Hey people! Updates?? Whats happening around the places?? Any developments >>yet?? We at Taree are getting some developing cumulus streaming from the >>west............but with a bit of haze hard to see if any real development >>yet. >> >>How about you james in Brisbane? Any developments yet? >> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: bayns at nornet.nor.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 14:22:28 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: steve baynham Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com hey, a storm just passed over the gold coast! there was thunder...there it goes again, was some lightning flashes and a bit of rain! no wind at all. it came up from the south just 15 minutes ago! steve baynham, Gold Coast, National Storm Chase News :) bye -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aussie-weather: Fw: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 14:24:54 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.2106.4 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >IDW16N00 > >TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST > >SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY >NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE >Issued at 1246 on Tuesday the 13th of October 1998 > >This advice affects people in the following weather districts: > >Northern Rivers >Mid-North Coast north of Port Macquarie >Northern Tablelands east of the New England Highway > >Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. >Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing large hailstones and >destructive winds. > >NOT FOR BROADCAST: This advice message is valid until 6 pm. The Bureau and >SES would appreciate it being broadcast regularly until this time. > >Jane >Melbourne > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: aussie-weather: Nice Weather - swap anyone Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 14:41:15 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anybody wishing to swap bright sunshine, 24C, 28% humidity, 20knot west winds. Please I will swap for any thunderstorm ! Picnics, beach, car washing, just think what you can do with that great weather. Michael Thompson - Wollongong ( Storm by-pass capital of Australia ) http://thunder.simplenet.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 15:00:14 +1000 Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Nice Weather - swap anyone Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Michael - have a nice day washing the car!! Could you check the net and see if there is any development for North Coast. The BOM has issued warnings, but it is hard to see what is going on due to fire haze. Appreciate it. Paul from Taree. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 15:18:35 +1000 From: david.croan at agal.gov.au (David Croan) Subject: Re[2]: aussie-weather: Fw: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Content-Description: cc:Mail note part Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Paul, You should take the afternoon off and head north (priorities!)...Are you in a position to see/photograph any of the development??. ______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________ Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Fw: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE Author: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au at agal-email Date: 13/10/98 2:35 PM Thankyou Jane. Appreciate it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 15:33:42 +1000 From: david.croan at agal.gov.au (David Croan) Subject: aussie-weather: SV ts damage OLQ To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Content-Description: cc:Mail note part Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Just heard on ABC radio news of severe thunderstorm damage in Warwick (sic.) in QLD. They only made mention narrow damage path due to wind and hail. Keep your ears to the ground. david -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aussie-weather: Storm Bypass Capital of Australia Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 15:36:35 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.2106.4 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Michael Thompson - Wollongong ( Storm by-pass capital of Australia ) I'm going to have to pip you on that one - storms don't even bypass us - in fact, they all head north for the winter, spring, summer & autumn. Today, I'll swap anyone one of these 13.1 degree days with no uplift (free )... YMML METARAWS YMML 0500Z 27020G28KT 9999 1CU035 7SC040 13.1/03.9 Q1007.3 RMK RF00.0/000.0 CLD:OVC041 VIS:9999 TTF: FM0500 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT Jane Melbourne -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Originating-Ip: [203.9.148.1] From: "Nick Sykes" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: Cold and Windy in Melbourne Date: Mon, 12 Oct 1998 22:36:37 PDT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A small but intense low over Tasmania is producing gale force winds over Victoria. In Melbourne today there have been some strong squalls. Easing is expected later. Nick ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Originating-Ip: [203.9.148.1] From: "Nick Sykes" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: Severe Thunderstorm warning Date: Mon, 12 Oct 1998 22:51:10 PDT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com See Weather Words to find out what the weather terms mean. Severe Thunderstorm warning published for south east Queensland -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IDW10Q00 TO::BTC5 **** FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST **** TOP PRIORITY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST DISTRICT Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane Issued at 3.00 pm on Tuesday , 13/10/98 A line of thunderstorms is currently located from just south of Ipswich to Beenleigh. This line is drifting north and is expected to affect the southern suburbs in the next 1 to 2 hours. Hail and severe wind squalls may be produced by these thunderstorms. The radar also shows thunderstorms developing over the eastern Downs. These thunderstorms are expected to pass over parts of the SE coast district between the Sunshine coast and Coolangatta later this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms may also produce hail and possible severe winds squalls. People in the path of the storms are advised to secure outside items, move cars under cover and seek shelter. The next warning will be issued at 4 pm. *** NOT FOR BROADCAST AFTER 4.00 PM **** These warnings can be heard on local radio and television and by dialing Brisbane 1196 at local call rates or 1900 969 921 at 75 cents per minute. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Return to: Met Net (Home page) Help Search this site Send:Feedback ) Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 1998, Bureau of Meteorology. Users of these Web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the copyright declaration. Nick ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 16:47:06 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aussie-weather: SE QLD Severe T'storms!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all - this is just a quick email, I now have a nice mess in the dining room to clean after extremely heavy rain, high winds (B10) and pea - to 2cm sized hail has just smashed through my area!!! I estimate approx 1 inch in 10mins, and no that is not an exaggeration when you consider that visibility was 15-20m!!! Even less at times! I'll write some more info up later, all I know is that we might have to get our carpets replaced and some light fittings, and that many branches are down in my area. Anthony Cornelius -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Chambers" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aussie-weather: brisbane storms Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 17:00:51 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com hi all...very quick email Just heard an unofficial report of hailstones the size of a brick!! These are always open to exaggeration so at this time we should probably disregard it. Heard it on 4BC Not severe here but I took heaps of photos...probably put a preliminary report on my site tonight sometime and a more in depth one soon. Gotta go to watch the news!! brb James from southern brisbane -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 17:13:25 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: Aussie Weather Subject: aussie-weather: ABC News Report... Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A line of thunderstorms moved through Brisbane suburbs this afternoon causing blackouts, commuter chaos and wind and hail damage. A number of houses were unroofed and power lines brought down. Rail services were interrupted, roads were blocked by debris and there were traffic accidents in blinding rain. Queensland Rail and Energex are still checking the extent of the damage. The ABC's Eddie Coleman was driving through the north Brisbane suburb of Toombul when the storm hit. "Suddenly it went very dark and this huge whirlwind came through," he said. "It ripped the roof off a building and I thought it was paper flying through the air. "And then I realised it was roofing and half a roof came crashing down on the road and the vehicle-carrying trailer had one car flipped right from the top deck. "It was lying upside down on the road - brand new vehicle and another one clinging precariously to the side." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 17:42:37 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aussie-weather: brisbane radar Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, I have every radar image from Brisbane since 11.10am today (it is now 5.40pm). I will make a complete animation for your viewing pleasure! I'll let you know a URL to browse later tonight. Michael *==========================================================* Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 17:48:11 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: brisbane radar Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Look forward to it!! We had some development, but that sw hit (not with any force ) except it "dried" out the air & removed all instability. A slightly disappointed Paul from Taree...................... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Chambers" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aussie-weather: funnel Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 17:49:07 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Listening to 4BC...a funnel formed in the vicinity of Gateway Bridge as witnessed by a guy with a 360 degree view from Clayfield, inner northern Brisbane. He said he saw power flashes not under the funnel but all around in the distance! Again, this'll have to be confirmed. I videoed hail of only pea size and winds of only 30kn. It wasn't severe here. 18mm with the first storm and more heavy rain about 45mins later with another. Kmart at Hendra was unroofed. Haven't heard anything more about that brick hail at Balmoral. Power lines down everywhere and trees through houses. They include 30m tall pine trees and huge 100yr old Moreton Bay Figs. I really don't know where to start with this storm - so much damage. We knew it was a big situation, but nothing like this. I'll report again some time James from Brisbane http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 17:55:32 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: brisbane radar Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com What a great site the satpics, the James Cook Uni pics make. The classic teardrop appearance!! Man wish we all were there!! I can see the top of 2 cells north of here, Id say prob between Kempsey & Coffs Harbour....bit far to get now before darK1 Damn shame though!! Oh well.....wait for the next day when I hear those great words: "afternoon storms.........." Paul from Taree -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 18:08:09 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aussie-weather: Brisbane in Gridlock! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com More info has come in on the 5pm/6pm news - the rail network is down, traffic lights in the valley/city area are out - rooves and mess is everywhere!! Traffic is at a standsill - police have an "emergent situation" well - declared one, that apparently gives them the authority to evacuate and everything... I'll try and write up a report tonight or tomorrow! Anthony -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 18:09:09 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Struck Gold!!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Ok Paul Graham & Laurier: Explain those upper air diagrams for me please! I just had a look at the brisbane one....all very interesting, but made a little sense! Paul from Taree. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 18:16:00 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: funnel Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I agree James - there is damage everywhere!! And many residents are only returning home to find damage...and the SES radio communicatios has been knocked out by the storms, there is a lot of confusion here! And reports are only just coming in. Anthony Cornelius James Chambers wrote: Listening to 4BC...a funnel formed in the vicinity of Gateway Bridge as witnessed by a guy with a 360 degree view from Clayfield, inner northern Brisbane. He said he saw power flashes not under the funnel but all around in the distance! Again, this'll have to be confirmed. I videoed hail of only pea size and winds of only 30kn. It wasn't severe here. 18mm with the first storm and more heavy rain about 45mins later with another. Kmart at Hendra was unroofed. Haven't heard anything more about that brick hail at Balmoral. Power lines down everywhere and trees through houses. They include 30m tall pine trees and huge 100yr old Moreton Bay Figs. I really don't know where to start with this storm - so much damage. We knew it was a big situation, but nothing like this. I'll report again some timeJames from Brisbanehttp://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html James Chambers wrote: Listening to 4BC...a funnel formed in the vicinity of Gateway Bridge as witnessed by a guy with a 360 degree view from Clayfield, inner northern Brisbane. He said he saw power flashes not under the funnel but all around in the distance! Again, this'll have to be confirmed. I videoed hail of only pea size and winds of only 30kn. It wasn't severe here. 18mm with the first storm and more heavy rain about 45mins later with another. Kmart at Hendra was unroofed. Haven't heard anything more about that brick hail at Balmoral. Power lines down everywhere and trees through houses. They include 30m tall pine trees and huge 100yr old Moreton Bay Figs. I really don't know where to start with this storm - so much damage. We knew it was a big situation, but nothing like this. I'll report again some timeJames from Brisbanehttp://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 18:46:06 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aussie-weather: funnel Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >From the news footage just shown in channel 9 in Sydney, it looked like a tornado affected the Fortitude Valley area. Debris was swirling everywhere in the shot and there did appear to be a funnel, though not fully condensed along its column. Keep a watch on all TV footage of this event. Looks like Gympie has just copped a beauty as well from radar just now. Michael *==========================================================* Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 17:44:00 +0800 From: Michael Fewings Organization: Edith Cowan Uni X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: SE QLD Severe T'storms!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, Mike from Perth here. That was the best read I have had in ages. I want to get up and chase now. The excitement of it all is very evident from all the emails starting with "It might be a good day" to "all hells breaking loose here!" I will definately view the news tonight and see the clips on telly. What a boring day for weather here in comparison. Just a fast moving cold front and a bit of rain. On Friday we look like getting a really good winter system through. Look forward to the break form sun then showers sun then showers etc. Keep the emails going, I love reading them. Better to read one of your great storm days than to mull over the lack of ours. Happy snapping Mike Anthony Cornelius wrote: > Hi all - this is just a quick email, I now have a nice mess in the > dining room to clean after extremely heavy rain, high winds (B10) and > pea - to 2cm sized hail has just smashed through my area!!! I estimate > approx 1 inch in 10mins, and no that is not an exaggeration when you > consider that visibility was 15-20m!!! Even less at times! I'll write > some more info up later, all I know is that we might have to get our > carpets replaced and some light fittings, and that many branches are > down in my area. > > Anthony Cornelius -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 20:05:16 +1000 (EST) From: Paul Graham To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: Atmospheric Stability... Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I was going to say a little more about this earlier...Firstly, the storms probably developed somewhere to the west of Brisbane so perhaps a reasonable approximation for a sounding would be from Moree in northern NSW (also factoring in the Brisbane sounding which is fairly similar). The situation is quite good for severe storms since there are conditionally unstable conditions for much of the trace with a subsidence inversion at around 3000m and associated dry air above this inversion - dry air is a recognised factor in the development of organised severe thunderstorms since it will aid in evaporative cooling and assist downdraughts while releasing latent heat. An temperature inversion at around this height (3000m) is also considered to be an important factor in the development of organised severe storms since it helps to store energy in the low levels of the atmosphere which may be released in "explosive " convection at some point. There is also significant shear across the inversion - shear is another important factor in organised severe storms by helping to "overturn" the air - also assists in the formation of mesocyclones. At the time of the traces, some of the indices weren't so favourable for severe storms but probably would have changed as the day progressed (a good index for assessing the potential for supercells is the Bukl Richardson Number which takes CAPE and shear into account - but you would probably have to modify the morning trace a bit to take into account destabilisation ) It would take me quite a long time to write up how to analyse the trace but there are some very good documents already online to help you do this. I'll have a hunt around for them and pass on teh addresses. Also, you may want to take a peek at my assignment on severe storms which I have online at: http://hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au/~m3052695/storm I hope it isn't too hard to understand if you're a beginner. Good luck. Cheers, Paul. On Tue, 13 Oct 1998 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au wrote: > Ok Paul Graham & Laurier: > > Explain those upper air diagrams for me please! I just had a look at the > brisbane one....all very interesting, but made a little sense! > Paul from Taree. > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 20:36:11 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aussie-weather: radar images Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have put an animation online as well as a couple of individual images as a cell passed over Brisbane. What are your opinions of the 9810130530 and 9810130540 images? A hook echo perhaps? http://www.ozemail.com.au/~mbath/radar.htm The animation is about 500K and covers the period from 11.10am to 5.30pm (0110z to 0730z). It's amazing how early in the day large storms has developed. You can see that a few cells passed over or close to Warwick which also sustained heavy damage. Warwick is slightly right of centre in the SW quadrant of the radar image - check your maps. These images are for personal download, please seek permission from the BoM if you want to use some in reports online. Do not link to the URL I have given. regards, Michael *==========================================================* Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 20:40:15 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aussie-weather: super typhoon Zeb Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anyone with an interest in tropical cyclones or satpics should check out super typhoon Zeb closing in on the Phillipines. Winds are *sustained* at 150 knots with gusts to 180 knots ! It is an awesome site from GMS-5 - check out the latest JCU globe image: ftp://ftp.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/globeflast.gif Michael *==========================================================* Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 18:54:03 +0800 From: Michael Fewings Organization: Edith Cowan Uni X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: super typhoon Zeb Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Mike from Perth here, Thanks for both those links Michael. The typhoon looks really well formed and quite lethal in the pic you linked. The radar image's look impressive. I would have loved to have been there! Thanks for putting them together. Mike Michael Bath wrote: > Anyone with an interest in tropical cyclones or satpics should check out > super typhoon Zeb closing in on the Phillipines. Winds are *sustained* at > 150 knots with gusts to 180 knots ! > > It is an awesome site from GMS-5 - check out the latest JCU globe image: > ftp://ftp.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/globeflast.gif > > Michael > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Chambers" To: Subject: Re: aussie-weather: radar images Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 20:56:13 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks Michael for showing us those radar images! Yeah I noticed how early they developed and at first seemed to enjoy staying on the range as mod sized hailstorms. But as the heat of the day took over they allowed themselves to move off the ranges. Yeah it looked like a hook echo to me by radar. I saw the ch 9 report and it was a pity the amateur cameraman didn't keep it steady! I'll forgive him for that. I have a preliminary report on my site. To most of you it'll be old news, but I thought I'd put something up tonight. You'll see the link just under my homepage photos: http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html See ya - I'm hoping to have online some photos later tomorrow and I will be in IRC tomorrow night and hopefully many of you will be too! James from Brisbane -----Original Message----- From: Michael Bath To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tuesday, 13 October 1998 20:35 Subject: aussie-weather: radar images >I have put an animation online as well as a couple of individual images as >a cell passed over Brisbane. What are your opinions of the 9810130530 and >9810130540 images? A hook echo perhaps? > >http://www.ozemail.com.au/~mbath/radar.htm > >The animation is about 500K and covers the period from 11.10am to 5.30pm >(0110z to 0730z). It's amazing how early in the day large storms has >developed. You can see that a few cells passed over or close to Warwick >which also sustained heavy damage. Warwick is slightly right of centre in >the SW quadrant of the radar image - check your maps. > >These images are for personal download, please seek permission from the BoM >if you want to use some in reports online. Do not link to the URL I have >given. > >regards, Michael -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:07:56 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: TC Zeb Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Ok the TC looks great !! What Cat does 180knts come in? Must be close to a Cat 5 TC?? Anyone aware of what the categorys run to? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:13:25 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: radar images Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I definately agree. that it appears to be a "hook"...........looking at the pics do you think it was mutlicellular or a giant supercell?? I think it was a supercell, from studying those images, the fact that there was a hook (which is common in supercells and not in others) and the damage done. What do others think? Paul From Taree -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: kg5 at pop.syd.fl.net.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:25:58 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Eric Subject: Re: aussie-weather: super typhoon Zeb Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I'd just like to add my agreement. Wowsers. Time to make sure that your hat has a chin-strap. Cheers, Eric - Gosford At 18:54 10/13/98 +0800, you wrote: >Mike from Perth here, > >Thanks for both those links Michael. The typhoon looks really well formed and >quite lethal in the pic you linked. >The radar image's look impressive. I would have loved to have been there! >Thanks for putting them together. >Mike > >Michael Bath wrote: > >> Anyone with an interest in tropical cyclones or satpics should check out >> super typhoon Zeb closing in on the Phillipines. Winds are *sustained* at >> 150 knots with gusts to 180 knots ! >> >> It is an awesome site from GMS-5 - check out the latest JCU globe image: >> ftp://ftp.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/globeflast.gif -- ------------------------------------------- Eric J. Berry API(S), MIFireE, JP Justice of the Peace NSW Rural Fire Service - Gosford IRC Operator - Austnet IRC Network Webmaster - www.fukngruvn.org ------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:27:37 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: TC Zeb Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Australia uses a different scale to America, but I'm not sure what scale the Phillipines use, possibly America's "Saffir-Simpson Scale" well, it wouldn't surprise me anyway! The important thing is, is that it is definately a Cat 5 by both scales, but the Australian scale goes as follows: <125km = Cat 1 125 - 170km/h = Cat 2 170 - 225 km/h = Cat 3 225 - 280km/h = Cat 4 280km/h = Cat 5 Those are maximum wind gusts... 180kts =approx 330km/h gusts off the top of my head, but you can work it out exactly if you like - 1kt = 1.852km/h paulmoss at tpgi.com.au wrote: > Ok the TC looks great !! What Cat does 180knts come in? Must be close > to a Cat 5 > TC?? Anyone aware of what the categorys run to? > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Chambers" To: Subject: Re: aussie-weather: radar images Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:29:05 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I'm not sure about that Paul. It could have been a HP supercell but I'll have to check from the weather bureau. Talking about them, they were issuing warnings every hour when it was obviously a more serious situation. Perhaps in this instance 20 mins between warnings should've been the case...but an hour!!?? Back to the original supercell idea...several funnels were spotted and at least one tornado (probable) occurred. In the radar there was the hook echo and the odd bow echo as well (0520) I would love to know the heights of the storm - but they don't have to overshoot to be classified as supercells. Several reports of rotation. If only I had seen that! By the way, I've of golf ball hail and 65mm at Yaraman (150km NW of Bris) and also further damage through the Glass House Mtns and Gympie. Wow. James from Bris www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html -----Original Message----- From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tuesday, 13 October 1998 21:12 Subject: Re: aussie-weather: radar images >I definately agree. that it appears to be a "hook"...........looking at the pics >do you think it was mutlicellular or a giant supercell?? I think it was a >supercell, from studying those images, the fact that there was a hook (which is >common in supercells and not in others) and the damage done. What do others >think? >Paul From Taree > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:31:53 +1000 From: Matthew Piper X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: TC Zeb Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Paul, This Super Typhoon would be a category 5 or on top of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale which is used in the United States. In Australia a different scale is used but still this storm would rate as a category 5. A category 5 storm as defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale is one in which the average wind speed is greater than 135 kts. This current typhoon is one of the most intense and rapidly developing storms I have ever seen. Last year Super Typhoon Paka and Keith in the area near Guam both attained a similar wind speed although I can't remember them intensifying as rapidly. Regards, Matthew paulmoss at tpgi.com.au wrote: > Ok the TC looks great !! What Cat does 180knts come in? Must be close to a Cat 5 > TC?? Anyone aware of what the categorys run to? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:34:22 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aussie-weather: Re: radar images/tornado Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com If you go through the radar animation at the time and shortly after the storm passed through Brisbane, you will notice that the cell exhibiting the 'hook echo' starts heading more NE (earlier ENE) while the other cells near Bris are moving east. Perhaps it did develop into a supercell, as a charactertic of supercells is to move in a direction left (if viewed from behind) of the prevailing storm direction. I think the guys in Brisbane should try and get hold of some detailed images from the Brisbane BoM ! The overall shape of the radar image at 9810130540 also indicates supercell, Additionally, the cell is active for over 3 hours and then out to sea for longer. I recorded a 3 minute report of the Brisbane storms from Sky News Oz off Foxtel - quite a comprehensive coverage. They showed more of the footage from the amateur, and it does appear that a tornado was recorded. I will bring the footage along to the AMOS meeting in Sydney this Thursday for those attending. regards, Michael At 21:13 13/10/98 +1000, you wrote: >I definately agree. that it appears to be a "hook"...........looking at the pics >do you think it was mutlicellular or a giant supercell?? I think it was a >supercell, from studying those images, the fact that there was a hook (which is >common in supercells and not in others) and the damage done. What do others >think? >Paul From Taree -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: kg5 at pop.syd.fl.net.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:36:51 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Eric Subject: aussie-weather: Something Different - Fire Weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 'lo everyone, Eric from Gosford here... just a slightly different line of thought from the impressive storms. i.e. a bit of a newbie question. today was what I refer to as a "good fire day". Although to a lot of people there is probably no such thing, it is something that I have to keep a good eye on so I can make sure that my crew is prepared if it all goes pear-shaped. Are any of those subscribed to this list experienced in fire weather forecasting and so forth? Most of the time I find myself looking at the BoM gopher information and making my own forecasts fromt that, however that normally only gives me a couple of hours at most to put out a message to those who count. Normally I'm fairly accurate, sometimes moreso than the bureau forecasters, but again, only on a few hours lead time. Given that weather is not an exact science (we had a forecast of thunderstorms and rain today - got clear skys, westerlys and fires instead) can anyone offer me some pointers or places to get them where I can have a reasonable chance of being in-tune with the probabilities of severe fire weather and/or hot, dry winds. Nothing worse than taking a manual reading and then finding out that you have a crossover. Cheers, Eric - Gosford (playing with his new GPS unit) :) :) -- ------------------------------------------- Eric J. Berry API(S), MIFireE, JP Justice of the Peace NSW Rural Fire Service - Gosford IRC Operator - Austnet IRC Network Webmaster - www.fukngruvn.org ------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:38:01 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: radar images Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks a million for that Michael!!! Being able to see radar was great!! I'm with both of you - not so much in the 0530, but I believe the 0540 shows a hook echo - in the same area of the possibly tornado in the Fortitude Valley region, and also perhaps even Kangaroo Point? They were the two hardest areas hit - and are separated only by the Brisbane River. Perhaps one point of interest is why the warnings were so late? Especially when severe t'storms went through Warrick in the morning!! In fact, they were even worse off because to my knowledge, Warrick received no warnings... And also, the new sirens in the city - the valley and Kangaroo Point are right beside the city!! They would have easily heard the siren...but the siren wasn't used... Anthony Cornelius Michael Bath wrote: > I have put an animation online as well as a couple of individual > images as > a cell passed over Brisbane. What are your opinions of the 9810130530 > and > 9810130540 images? A hook echo perhaps? > > http://www.ozemail.com.au/~mbath/radar.htm > > The animation is about 500K and covers the period from 11.10am to > 5.30pm > (0110z to 0730z). It's amazing how early in the day large storms has > developed. You can see that a few cells passed over or close to > Warwick > which also sustained heavy damage. Warwick is slightly right of centre > in > the SW quadrant of the radar image - check your maps. > > These images are for personal download, please seek permission from > the BoM > if you want to use some in reports online. Do not link to the URL I > have > given. > > regards, Michael -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:45:06 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aussie-weather: warnings Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I was dissapointed with the warnings issued in SE Queensland during the afternoon - I was hoping for some reports of what had been reported by spotters to be included in the bulletins as NSW does. It was just the same information repeated each hour. How good is the storm spotter network in SE Qld? In NSW, many spotters would have phoned into the Bureau and that info is often relayed via the severe storm advices - extra info like hail size already occurring, wind gusts etc. The storms in Warwick started well before anything hit Brisbane - there must have been something reported. Storm spotter data of severe weather backs up warnings more than anything else and should be passed on to reinforce the situation and danger approaching. What do others think? Michael At 21:29 13/10/98 +1000, you wrote: >I'm not sure about that Paul. It could have been a HP supercell but I'll >have to check from the weather bureau. Talking about them, they were >issuing warnings every hour when it was obviously a more serious situation. >Perhaps in this instance 20 mins between warnings should've been the >case...but an hour!!?? [snip] *==========================================================* Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au Australian Severe Weather http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ *==========================================================* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 21:55:36 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: Re: aussie-weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanx for the assistance guys! 1. The Typhoon or TC is a very severe one. I have also never seen one intensify as quickly as that. Maybe an indication of the season to come for Aussie? I heard Steve symonds talking on the radio the other day, and he was saying that as a consequence of being in a La Nina event, the possibility is that TC will be more severe then average. Could be interesting. Now heres a thought. TC very rarely go below 30c south.....although we had one cross near Coffs Harbour 3 years ago, which we copped some flack from, but not a great deal (winds about 100km , about 75mm rain in 12 hours if I remember.) But whats the possibility that due to La Nina, these TCs could now dip lower, being more powerful, and say hit Mid North Coast? Wake me up, Im dreaming......if there is a God...please!! 2. I was purusing some information obtained from a link through M Baths page, and reading up on supercells..........this one in Brisbane appears to be a supercell. The commentator says that Tornadoes RARELY form on anything other than supercells , because of the downdrafts. Not only that the satpics seem to indicate that the one cell continued , and that it did not compete with flanking updrafts. Comparing the radar images & satpic, the storm exhibits "classic" supercell formation. - i.e. hook. heaviest rain falling on the SW flank, and with the trough bringing in the cooler air from the south (according to the BOM ), I would opinion that we have just seen a supercell rage through Brisbane! What do we think?? Please tell me......... Cheers! Paul from Taree. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Chambers" To: Subject: Re: aussie-weather: warnings Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 22:00:09 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Usually, spotters aren't very good in SE Qld!! I don't know why - maybe there aren't so many. It would have been great to have one in Warwick to tell everyone of the terrific potential of the storms. The media knew first - as is often the case in this part of the world. A warning like "hailstones to 3cm in diamater and winds over 100km/h have already been reported..." would have been great! James www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html -----Original Message----- From: Michael Bath To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tuesday, 13 October 1998 21:44 Subject: aussie-weather: warnings >I was dissapointed with the warnings issued in SE Queensland during the >afternoon - I was hoping for some reports of what had been reported by >spotters to be included in the bulletins as NSW does. It was just the same >information repeated each hour. > >How good is the storm spotter network in SE Qld? In NSW, many spotters >would have phoned into the Bureau and that info is often relayed via the >severe storm advices - extra info like hail size already occurring, wind >gusts etc. The storms in Warwick started well before anything hit Brisbane >- there must have been something reported. Storm spotter data of severe >weather backs up warnings more than anything else and should be passed on >to reinforce the situation and danger approaching. What do others think? > >Michael > > >At 21:29 13/10/98 +1000, you wrote: >>I'm not sure about that Paul. It could have been a HP supercell but I'll >>have to check from the weather bureau. Talking about them, they were >>issuing warnings every hour when it was obviously a more serious situation. >>Perhaps in this instance 20 mins between warnings should've been the >>case...but an hour!!?? > [snip] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 22:08:16 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: Re: aussie-weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com LATE NEWS LATE NEWS............................. Hey its me again (yawn..........heheheh) I have just looked at the forecast for the weekend. Loks like North Coast could be the place to come ! Predicitng few showers & storms for Friday (i like the word few!!) and also for storms for Saturday for Mid North & North Coast. Might get finally to meet some of the guys at last!! I have previously emailed my ph No. so please call if you are heading this way! I have to go away with work for 3 days (boring!) so I wont be on tomorrow night for the IRC meeting...and I have to cancel my plans to attend the Sydney AMOS meeting (which I was soooooo looking forward to!). However, if theres going to be some chasing, please phone me on (02) 65532028 home or 0414662753 Mobile no. Im actually going to be on the Far Mid North to North Coast, so I might get some great pics!! Lets hope!! Anyway, cheers everyone & talk soon! Paul from Taree. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 22:29:30 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: aussie-weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Paul - the La Nina means that our SST's will be warmer then usual, it also means that warm water will be present further south. If you have seen any SST images, you can clearly see that warm water is "hugging" much of the S QLD coast, - this means that TC's have enough "fuel" to travell further south. Warmer SST's all around Australia means that severe TC's are more likely to form. But bear in mind - high SST's do not always mean a TC, conditions also have to be right in the atmosphere. A clear example is that last year Brisbane's SST's were 26C for about 2 months at least - yet we didn't have a TC - even though 26C could easily sustain one. But yes, La Nina *generally* does mean more then average TC's and more severe TC's...but there have been La Nina years with significantly lower averages, and El Nino years with significantly higher averages. But as a general rule it does give us more!!! To you other question. tornadoes can form from single and multicell storms, although very rarely from singlecell - sometimes I think that some singlecells are almost just shortlived supercells - if that makes any sense. Mutlicells can still produce tornadoes, especially multicellular storms exhibiting a bow echo, which is sometimes capable of producing tornadoes. The storm that passed over me was the bow echo one. After thinking about some of the comments said, and by talking about it with James for a while, I also believe that it was a HP supercell, the only other possibile genre is a very very severe multicell. But it should be noted that every one of the main cells lasted for many hours...not only the particular one that produced the probably tornado. My only "quarm" is that supercell storms tend to generally be isolated from other storms, yet this storm was very close to another severe storm. But from viewing the storm that probably produced a tornado - it's structure was very defined - ie, very defined updrafts and anvil from what I could see. Probably what I am trying to say is that it did have a very organised structure! I'd probably say HP supercell. Anthony Cornelius paulmoss at tpgi.com.au wrote: > Thanx for the assistance guys! > > 1. The Typhoon or TC is a very severe one. I have also never seen one > intensify as > quickly as that. Maybe an indication of the season to come for Aussie? > I heard > Steve symonds talking on the radio the other day, and he was saying > that as a > consequence of being in a La Nina event, the possibility is that TC > will be more > severe then average. Could be interesting. Now heres a thought. TC > very rarely go > below 30c south.....although we had one cross near Coffs Harbour 3 > years ago, > which we copped some flack from, but not a great deal (winds about > 100km , about > 75mm rain in 12 hours if I remember.) But whats the possibility that > due to La > Nina, these TCs could now dip lower, being more powerful, and say hit > Mid North > Coast? Wake me up, Im dreaming......if there is a God...please!! > > 2. I was purusing some information obtained from a link through M > Baths page, and > reading up on supercells..........this one in Brisbane appears to be a > supercell. > The commentator says that Tornadoes RARELY form on anything other than > supercells > , because of the downdrafts. Not only that the satpics seem to > indicate that the > one cell continued , and that it did not compete with flanking > updrafts. Comparing > the radar images & satpic, the storm exhibits "classic" supercell > formation. - > i.e. hook. heaviest rain falling on the SW flank, and with the trough > bringing in > the cooler air from the south (according to the BOM ), I would opinion > that we > have just seen a supercell rage through Brisbane! > > What do we think?? Please tell me......... > Cheers! > Paul from Taree. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: disarm at braenet.com.au X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified) Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 01:26:10 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aussie-weather: brissy storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com just saw the footage on TV. (11pm yeah its late, and i didnt get a chance to see it all day!) sky news had gret coverage.. and that tornado.. was it ? looked really weak.. sort of like a dust devil... anyway lots of damage.. and the footage ontpp of that building with the storm moving in.. EXCELLENT!!! ok ive had my say :) Matt from sydney. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: aussie-weather: irc weather chat, when and where? Date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 23:41:38 +1000 X-Msmail-Priority: Normal X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everybody >From reading the reports on the South East Queensland storms I noticed serval people mention a irc chat session, can someone post the details as I have only just joined the mailing list. Nick
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Updated: 20th October, 1998 |
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