From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]             Big seas - Margaret River again.
002 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Snow info
003 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        post Vance temps
004 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        Vance, Wind speed & Onslow
005 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]    Vance idiot
006 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]          Vance idiot
007 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]                     post Vance temps
008 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]          Tornado track near Mudgee
009 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]         post Vance temps
010 "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com]          Vance idiot
011 Mario Daoust [Mario.Daoust at upng.ac.pg]         Contact List Update - March
012 DavidC at thevortex.com                           Tornado track near Mudgee

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001

From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Big seas - Margaret River again.
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 00:34:55 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet E-mail/MAPI - 8.0.0.4211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Back onto Margaret River,

There has been a surf comp on there just the last few days, and I couldn't 
help noticing the report on Channel 10 Sports tonight on Sunday night which 
showed and discussed the waves as being a solid 4 to 5m (yes meters), which 
had really sorted the men out from the boys.  Footage was excellent.

Regards.

-----Original Message-----
A couple of nice breaks mentioned there Lindsay. I have surfed Cronulla
Point into double figures as well and it is such a workable wave at that
size.

I have also surfed Dee Why point, but it is not in the same class as
Cronulla Point.  Hopefully with warm water offshore the first significant
cold air pools will stir up some east lows.

A dead giveaway for a possible east coast low is to watch the 540 line on
the US models, if a section of this gets isolated over the Tasman ( cut off
the main body ), you can generally bet a depression will develop under it.

I relate to what you say about the back, ears and ribs, most of my braver
conquests were at the age of 22, rather than the 42 I am now.

Michael

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002

Date: Mon, 29 Mar 1999 10:26:13 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Snow info
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Does anyone know of any sites where I can get snowfall info for
Australia? Ie: snowfalls measured on any given day throughout the year.

Thanks,


Lindsay

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003

From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: post Vance temps
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 16:57:04 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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> 
> Hello list, Nandina here, from Mulgrave (Vic)
>  I am curious.  Both SA and Vic received post Vance winds of note, and higher than anticipated temperatures in the Vance dregs that passed through.  Is this normal for Cyclone 'tails', or were the high temps due to occur anyway?
> Cheers,
> 
> Nandina
> nandina at alphalink.com.au
Cyclones can generate strong temperature anomalies in situations 
where they lead to strong advection of air from warm/cold regions,
especially in tropical areas where pressure gradients are normally
weak (and especially near tropical coasts).

If there's enough warm air inland and limited moisture, the west coast
of WA can get very warm temperatures in the strong offshore flow
ahead of a cyclone moving from the north - WA tends to get its most
dangerous fire weather in these situations. Good examples of this in
Perth are Alby (1978) and Vincent (1990?). It's not quite so
striking in Victoria, because non-cyclonic strong northerly flows 
aren't uncommon, but any strong northerly flow will produce high
temperatures.

Perhaps the most interesting example of cyclone-driven temperatures
in recent times was with Nancy in 1990 - I wrote this up for the last
AMOS Bulletin. This had a very large circulation with it, which led to
air from a long way south being advected into north Queensland - 
something that normally only happens in winter. This air became 
extremely dry on its overland passage, leading to some huge diurnal
ranges (by the region's standards), and the strong southerly flow on
the coast made for some very high maximum temperatures at coastal 
sites, as the sea-breeze was killed off. Townsville experienced one
of its highest February maxima and lowest February minima (40/20 IIRC)
on the same day, other sites on the coast reached record highs in
the 42-43 range, yet many sites just inland demolished their 
February record lows (especially on the Atherton Tableland). The 
dryness of the air was extraordinary: Townsville's dew-point hit -1
at one point (the previous February record being ~+7).

Blair Trewin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004

From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vance, Wind speed & Onslow
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 17:16:03 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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> 
> Can someone please tell me why the rainfalls weren't higher? Is it because of the
> speed of the storm as it passed? Compare with Rona in Queensland (and Bellenden
> Ker, Babinda etc). Or the fact that on the approach side of the cyclone,because
> the winds were roughly northwest to northeast, that they were drier?
A few potential explanations:

- as you say, the cyclone moved fairly quickly
- the very high winds meant that rain-gauges certainly under-reported
  their catch - no real ideas as to the extent, but 50% wouldn't
  surprise me. (By and large, the largest reported rainfalls from 
  tropical cyclones are in the relatively weak - from the wind viewpoint
  - systems).
- the highest rainfalls in Rona (and similar) occurred where the moist
  flow interacted with rugged topography (nowhere else in Australia 
  do 1500+ m peaks occur so close to the coast). The NW Cape region
  is much flatter, so the rainfall fields are likely to be much more
  uniform.

On a tangent, did anyone else see the idiot from Channel 7 on 'Media
Watch' last night doing a 'piece to camera' in the middle of Vance
(and ultimately being blown sideways)? I suspect I wasn't alone in
wondering what would happen if he suddenly got decapitated by a piece
of flying corrugated iron...(He also claimed that the winds gusted to
350 km/h - which could conceivably be true on the eastern side of 
Exmouth Gulf, but not in Exmouth itself).

Blair Trewin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005

From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vance idiot
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 17:31:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>On a tangent, did anyone else see the idiot from Channel 7 on 'Media
>Watch' last night doing a 'piece to camera' in the middle of Vance
>(and ultimately being blown sideways)? I suspect I wasn't alone in
>wondering what would happen if he suddenly got decapitated by a piece
>of flying corrugated iron...(He also claimed that the winds gusted to
>350 km/h - which could conceivably be true on the eastern side of
>Exmouth Gulf, but not in Exmouth itself).

>Blair Trewin

Hi all

Yeah the night we all saw that footage we agreed how stupid that person was.
(We were talking about it on IRC)  I've got a feeling he was just a little
over-excited by the winds.  The guy was holding onto some rope, and if he
experienced 350km/h gusts, the rope would have broken and he would have been
found a long way away with massive unimaginable injuries (no limbs, gashes
etc).  He was interviewed on Today Tonight at the time and he said after he
was blown about 50 feet through a courtyard (not on tape) just afterwards so
he thought he'd go inside.  He also said he was never scared at any time.
His general attitude was one of a "yahoo chaser".  The ASWA will do well to
have nobody like him.

James Chambers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006

X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 17:39:07 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vance idiot
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

James, I agree. I think he should have been sacked from his job for
incorrect reporting. What a twit.

Now doesn't that really give people a good impression of what to do during
a cyclone. I wonder how people in the area that lost everything fealt about
his reporting.... if they got to see it. I think reporters should at least
have the decency to approach the area with caution and feel sympathetic
towards people. They are reporting the event, not sensationalise the whole
situation. And how can have estimated the wind strength????

Jimmy Deguara

At 17:31 30/03/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all
>
>Yeah the night we all saw that footage we agreed how stupid that person was.
>(We were talking about it on IRC)  I've got a feeling he was just a little
>over-excited by the winds.  The guy was holding onto some rope, and if he
>experienced 350km/h gusts, the rope would have broken and he would have been
>found a long way away with massive unimaginable injuries (no limbs, gashes
>etc).  He was interviewed on Today Tonight at the time and he said after he
>was blown about 50 feet through a courtyard (not on tape) just afterwards so
>he thought he'd go inside.  He also said he was never scared at any time.
>His general attitude was one of a "yahoo chaser".  The ASWA will do well to
>have nobody like him.
>
>James Chambers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007

X-Sender: jacob at iinet.net.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 15:55:04 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: post Vance temps
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

At 04:57 PM 30-03-99 +1000, you wrote:
>Cyclones can generate strong temperature anomalies in situations 
>where they lead to strong advection of air from warm/cold regions,
>especially in tropical areas where pressure gradients are normally
>weak (and especially near tropical coasts).
>
>If there's enough warm air inland and limited moisture, the west coast
>of WA can get very warm temperatures in the strong offshore flow
>ahead of a cyclone moving from the north - WA tends to get its most
>dangerous fire weather in these situations. Good examples of this in
>Perth are Alby (1978) and Vincent (1990?). It's not quite so
>striking in Victoria, because non-cyclonic strong northerly flows 
>aren't uncommon, but any strong northerly flow will produce high
>temperatures.
>

Yeah, Cyclone Alby Perth recorded a temperature of 36.0C on the 4th April,
1978, with gale force to storm force winds. Dad remembers that they were
all told to go home from work as the wind was that bad, I believe we were
on a cyclone warning at the time, Alby managed to pass well to the west of
Perth as a Cat 3, but still caused a lot of damage with the hot N to NE
winds. Dad said our shed blew away.

Cyclone Vincent on the 5th March, 1990, gave us our hottest March day on
record, with 42.3C. I still have the news footage of that on video, which
we saw at the WA ASWA meeting on Saturday night. That was the last time we
had a Cyclone warning in Perth, we managed to escape most of its  winds
though, as it passed well to the SW.

We were quite lucky with Cyclone Vance, before it hit Exmouth the watch
already extended south to Geraldton, had Vance conituned its SW course and
made its way around the NW Cape and recurved later it may have been a
different story. I've been told that the lower west coast including Perth
was only 6 hours away from being on a Cyclone watch had Vance not turned
due south when it did. 

It would have been interesting to see how much strenght Vance would have
kept had it stayed out to sea and made its way down the west coast, as it
was still a Cyclone about 36 hours after it made landfall, the lowest
pressure I saw Kalgoorlie get to when Vance was nearby was 992hPa.

Jacob

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008

X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 18:29:11 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tornado track near Mudgee
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

On the day of the Moree chase conducted by Michael Bath, Matt Smith and
myself (hail), there was a tornado?? reported and observed near Mudgee.
(You may recall that we had observed and videoed a tornado or funnel from
Gunnedah. This was a storm we had observed earlier in the afternoon and
information relayed by several people but this must have occurred later.
Geoff Thurtell has kindly researched the information and here it is:

Jimmy, 

On the tornado front...yes, it did occur on Saturday, 30 January at 
about 4 pm.

The place is called Yarrabin and the property is on the Yarrabin Road,
about 40 km SW of Mudgee heading towards Hill End. The property is just
over the hill from Burrendong Dam and the wall cloud from which the tornado
descended seemed to drop right onto the top of the hill just before the
tornado formed. The owner had just started to pack up things when he heard
a "roar" and looked up to see the funnel touching down in the gully below
the hill. There were "trees flying everywhere" and that was when he decided
to get everyone under the bed in the shed. 

The tornado made a direct hit on the house, which was double brick built up
to the second floor level (ie the second floor hadn't been constructed).
All of the walls of the house were destroyed except for one corner. The
wall that took the full force of the leading edge of the tornado was
removed to below ground floor level (the floor is wooden on piers). The
floor stayed in place because it was held down by all of the bricks that
landed on it! A steel beam that was on the second floor was speared through
the floor and into the ground below. 

The shed withstood the onslaught but now leans over about 1/2 metre away
from the direction of the tornado. On the other side of the house, in the
trees on a small rise in the ground about 60 metres away, Brad had a tent.
The tent survived but was also leaning over in the opposite direction to
the shed and away from the tornado. A pile of brickies sand beside the
house does not exist anymore. the cement mixer was found tangled up in a
fence about 70-80 metres away.

Timber that was stacked beside the house was found even further away and in
the bush across the road, not all of it has been accounted for. There was a
150 metre wide zone of total destruction (including all the grass being
"vacuumed" up) and then a further zone of lesser damage about 300 metres
wide. On either side of the 150 metre zone the trees are piled up in one
direction on one side and the opposite direction on the other side. They
are mixed up with partially damaged and snapped trees in the lesser damage
zone. The 150 metre zone is totally bare. The owner drove a four wheel ag
bike up the damage path from beginning to end and got a reading of 1.6 km.
The tornado roped out about 100 metres past the house. They searched
further up in the direction that the storm travelled but could not see any
evidence of further touch downs. 

Also, the owner looked out of the shed window just as the tornado reached
the house but all he could see was a green-black mass with debris flying
all around the place.

Brad is going to see if he can get copies of the damage photos. 
Apparently, there is a good one taken from a high hill that overlooks the
property, that shows an aerial view of most of the track. 
Geoff

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail:  jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009

Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 21:29:43 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: post Vance temps
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I also seem to recall seeing a weather map of January 1939 (the Black
Friday fires (as I think they were called) and Sydney's highest ever
maximum,I think on the map there was a heat low( ex tropical cyclone) 
over the southwest or south of Western Australia with an extensive
trough extending southeast and a huge fetch of dry tropical air to its
northwest...

Blair Trewin wrote:
> Cyclones can generate strong temperature anomalies in situations
> where they lead to strong advection of air from warm/cold regions,
> especially in tropical areas where pressure gradients are normally
> weak (and especially near tropical coasts).
> 
> If there's enough warm air inland and limited moisture, the west coast
> of WA can get very warm temperatures in the strong offshore flow
> ahead of a cyclone moving from the north - WA tends to get its most
> dangerous fire weather in these situations. Good examples of this in
> Perth are Alby (1978) and Vincent (1990?). It's not quite so
> striking in Victoria, because non-cyclonic strong northerly flows
> aren't uncommon, but any strong northerly flow will produce high
> temperatures.
> 
> Perhaps the most interesting example of cyclone-driven temperatures
> in recent times was with Nancy in 1990 - I wrote this up for the last
> AMOS Bulletin. This had a very large circulation with it, which led to
> air from a long way south being advected into north Queensland -
> something that normally only happens in winter. This air became
> extremely dry on its overland passage, leading to some huge diurnal
> ranges (by the region's standards), and the strong southerly flow on
> the coast made for some very high maximum temperatures at coastal
> sites, as the sea-breeze was killed off. Townsville experienced one
> of its highest February maxima and lowest February minima (40/20 IIRC)
> on the same day, other sites on the coast reached record highs in
> the 42-43 range, yet many sites just inland demolished their
> February record lows (especially on the Atherton Tableland). The
> dryness of the air was extraordinary: Townsville's dew-point hit -1
> at one point (the previous February record being ~+7).
> 
> Blair Trewin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010

X-Originating-Ip: [203.2.193.71]
From: "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vance idiot
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 03:42:02 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

This reminds me of some of the discussions that I have
read on the US newsgroups. 

I can recall a number of lively discussions about the 
news presenters standing out in the middle of otherwise
deserted streets. There has also been considerable discussion
about whether news presenters or film crews should evacuate
like everyone else or whether they should stay and film the 
story (potentially putting themselves and likley rescuers in
considerable danger). 

Like most other things (sport comes 
readily to mind), there is now considerable commercial 
pressure to turn extreme weather into yet another
source of infotainment and then build up the ratings.

There is, however, a positive to having the public better
educated about the power of these storms - and nothing 
educates more (short of actually being there) than seeing 
real images. The issue is one of finding the appropriate 
balance. This is a topic that deserves some consideration.

Whilst on the subject of Vance, I recall hearing a news 
broadcast of the Prime Minister congratulating the SES for
the great job done in ensuring there were no lives lost in 
any of the affected areas. 

Whilst not wishing to detract from
the great work of the SES crews, I thought it was a shame that
the PM did not also acknowledge the work of the Commonwealth's
own agency ie the BoM for the forecasts and warnings which 
also played a not inconsiderable part in preparing the 
residents of the affected areas for the worst.

Perhaps it is up to groups like us to bring to the attention
of politicians and the general public that spending public
money on the BoM is not just a cost to the public purse but
also an investment in the savings of life and property in 
situations like this.

Patrick


>James, I agree. I think he should have been sacked from his job for
>incorrect reporting. What a twit.
>
>Now doesn't that really give people a good impression of what to do 
during
>a cyclone. I wonder how people in the area that lost everything fealt 
about
>his reporting.... if they got to see it. I think reporters should at 
least
>have the decency to approach the area with caution and feel sympathetic
>towards people. They are reporting the event, not sensationalise the 
whole
>situation. And how can have estimated the wind strength????
>
>Jimmy Deguara

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011

Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 22:32:49 +1000
From: Mario Daoust [Mario.Daoust at upng.ac.pg]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Contact List Update - March
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Jane ONeill wrote:

> 'The List' has been updated and is available at
> http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/location.htm
>
> Many thanks to Greg Spencer for his help in designing & to Michael Bath for
> uploading it.
>
> For those of you who are new to the aussie weather list, this site is not
> linked - you are the only ones who know the URL.  It is updated every couple
> of weeks, depending on the volume of information received & time
> constraints. (Jason & Keith - you'll be in the next update).
>
> If you would like any of your details included, please send them to either
> aussie-weather or directly to me.
>
> Jane ONeill
> ASWA rep - Vic
> cadence at rubix.net.au

Hi Jane,

This is in reply to your memo regarding 'The List'.  I have never
introduced myself to the "Aussie-weather" people before although 
I sent a few messages in the past.  So, here it goes...

I am originally from Montreal, Canada.  I graduated from McGill
University (Canada) in Climatology and Geostatistics (Ph.D. 1992).  
I have been employed at the University of Papua New Guinea for the 
last 5 years.  As a lecturer, I am in charge of several courses 
(tropical climatology, global change and natural hazards).  My main
areas of expertise are synoptic climatology, natural climatic
variability and global change.  I am currently working on a
research project that hopes to establish the presence of a 
statistically significant global warming signal in PNG. Results on 
this issue should be published by the end of this year.  I am also 
involved in another project (natural disaster)regarding spatial and 
temporal changes in the frequency, trajectory and intensity of 
tropical cyclones in the Milne Bay area for the last 30 years.  
The main focus here is to establish if the Milne Bay  population 
could become more at risk in the future due to issues related to 
global warming and variations in the El Nino patterns.

I have been involved in several research projects in the past.  Some are
related to natural climatic variability (e.g., spatial and temporal 
variations in mid-latitude cyclones for eastern Canada), others are more 
specific (e.g., health problems related to air pollution episodes, and 
synoptic weather situations creating LRTAP and acid rain in subarctic 
regions).

Because I am in PNG, I am afraid I cannot really contribute to the 
activities of 'The List'.  However, whenever I can help answer some 
questions, I will give you a shout...

Cheers!

Mario Daoust

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012

From: DavidC at thevortex.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornado track near Mudgee
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 07:23:54 -0600
X-Mailer: My Own Email v3.0
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>On the tornado front...yes, it did occur on Saturday, 30 January at 
>about 4 pm.

Hi Jimmy and everyone

This sounds like a fairly strong tornado - 
it will be interesting to see what the BoM 
estimate the F-rating to be. Also might be 
good to get the sounding data for that day 
although I guess none of the stations are 
that close to Mudgee.


David