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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 5 May 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Killer Tornadoes in Okalahoma
002 Bodie_27 at postmaster.co.uk Killer Tornado's in OK & Brisbane Weather
003 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Killer Tornado's in OK & Brisbane Weather
004 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] Killer Tornadoes in Okalahoma
005 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] OK Twisters
006 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Tornado Damage Assessment
007 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] High Pressure
008 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Killer Tornadoes in Oaklahoma
009 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] NSW ASWA Meeting
010 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] High Pressure
011 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au] Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
012 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Tornado Damage Assessment
013 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] BoM District Boundaries, was Woolbrook was -Katoomba Site: w
014 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
015 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Tornado Damage Assessment
016 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au] Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
017 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] [Fwd: can you smell the adrehnelin over there?? .. the news
018 "Karl W. Schulze" [kschulze at earthlink.net] (no subject)
019 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Perth - Severe thunderstorm advice
020 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
021 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Canberra connection explained
022 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] High Pressure
023 Dane Newman [dpn at bigpond.com] FW: Fwd: [WX-CHASE] OK Tornadoes
024 "John Roenfeldt" [wa_tornado at hotmail.com] Tornado Damage Assessment
025 "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com] Canberra connection explained
026 David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com] RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
027 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
028 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] Fujita Scale, was: Killer Tornadoes in Oaklahoma
029 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] High Pressure
030 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au] ASWA now Incorporated
031 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] ASWA now Incorporated
032 "John Graham" [gorzzz at one.net.au] Tornado Alley
033 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Canberra connection explained
034 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Interesting CNN interview RE: Tornadoes
035 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au] satpic images of the Oklahoma outbreak
036 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Canberra connection explained
037 "Rod Aikman" [raikman at hotmail.com] High pressure
038 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] MSC update
039 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
040 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
041 "Rob & Mimi Lord" [robmimilord at ozemail.com.au Canberra connection explained
042 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Elastically-enhanced linguistic gymnastics...
043 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au] RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
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001
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 08:10:15 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Killer Tornadoes in Okalahoma
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Update.
They say now 3 dozen tornadoes ripped through Okalahoma & Kansas areas, 41
dead, I entire suburb devastated. They are still not sure of classification
of the most intense Tornado but from reports it was 31kms wide!! From the
video footage I reckon it have to go close to an F5 "Finger of
Death".............maybe we should al take a moment this morning to
remember all those suffering........
Local scene another autumn day here with 23c expected, some bunched cu and
some stratocu around but I don't expect anything. They say possible shower
but I would be surprised.
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002
From: Bodie_27 at postmaster.co.uk
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 00:11:33 +0100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Killer Tornado's in OK & Brisbane Weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
31km wide?!?!?! Stop and think about that for a second! :) I heard on CNN
that it was at least half a mile wide, up to a mile at times.. still
absolutely MASSIVE none the less.. CNN - wich i get through pay TV - had
some of the best Tornado footage i've ever seen (sorry, i havn't seen ALL
the TVC's), they showed footage that went for at least 5 minutes of this
guy filming the tornado actually developing.. the wall cloud was so low
that it looked like he was on top of a mountain in low cloud! even when the
tornado was developing it was at least 70-100m wide, and this guy was like
100m away from it the whole time.. glad it was him and not me..
They also showed footage of a TV crew that thought the tornado was actually
a rain curtain(that's how big this thing was), until it got close enough to
hear the roar.. you could hear in their voices that they were absolutely
terrified, they were lucky to get out of it's path in time..
On a lighter note, an upper level stystem and fresh easterly winds could
prove for some interesting weather late this week.. I'm not tipping rain
myself at this stage, but certainly increased showers.. and no doubt
overnight rain/showery in the usual places..
Paul Mossman wrote:
Update.
They say now 3 dozen tornadoes ripped through Okalahoma & Kansas
areas, 41
dead, I entire suburb devastated. They are still not sure of
classification
of the most intense Tornado but from reports it was 31kms wide!! From
the
video footage I reckon it have to go close to an F5 "Finger of
Death".............maybe we should al take a moment this morning to
remember all those suffering........
Local scene another autumn day here with 23c expected, some bunched
cu and
some stratocu around but I don't expect anything. They say possible
shower
but I would be surprised.
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003
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 09:37:42 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Killer Tornado's in OK & Brisbane Weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
There should have been a decimal point in there sumwhere!
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004
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 09:43:47 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Killer Tornadoes in Okalahoma
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Latest reports from the US #Weather channel say 50 tornadoes, 45
dead...but nothing about a 31km wide nader? I think you mean 31km
long....but tornadoes have had a path up to 100 miles long (160km!) and
was reported to be a mile (1.6km) wide!
>From the damage I've seen, I've only seen F4 damage, I'm yet to see a
house that has been swept off its foundations, however I wouldn't be
surprised to see one though...
More severe wx today...not quite as bad as before though. CAPE's are
5000-8000 with LI's of -10 to -12 in some area's...fortunately shearing
here is poor, the main severe wx is occuring near the 2000-3000 CAPE's
and 400 SRH.
Anthony Cornelius
Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au wrote:
>
> Update.
>
> They say now 3 dozen tornadoes ripped through Okalahoma & Kansas areas, 41
> dead, I entire suburb devastated. They are still not sure of classification
> of the most intense Tornado but from reports it was 31kms wide!! From the
> video footage I reckon it have to go close to an F5 "Finger of
> Death".............maybe we should al take a moment this morning to
> remember all those suffering........
>
> Local scene another autumn day here with 23c expected, some bunched cu and
> some stratocu around but I don't expect anything. They say possible shower
> but I would be surprised.
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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005
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: "Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: OK Twisters
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 09:59:40 +1000
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USAToday is always a good sorce for latest US Tornado info. This page has
links to photos and detailed reports...
http://www.usatoday.com/hphoto.htm
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW.
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006
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 10:32:19 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Tornado Damage Assessment
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
First of all, my heart goes out to those unfortunate people who
found themselves in the path of those "killer twisters" within
Oklahoma yesterday. Thank heavens we don't get storms like that
in Australia despite the interest they invoke:-(
I find it very interesting when a tornado is classified according
to the damage it might do to property etc. It can be terribly
subjective. Some examples;
1) Tar lifted off road: Construction techniques have a great
bearing here and what might have happened during the previous
winter in terms of water ingress & freezing loosening the surface.
2) Houses lifted off foundations: Construction standards again.
A house "tied down" with steel is likely to have its roof
demolished rather than the whole house lifted in an F4/5. I've
witnessed the implementation of construction codes in both the
US and Australia. We're much tougher in Oz with more stiffening,
tie-downs, larger foundations, qeotech surveys, stronger
materials e.g. timber sections, mandated in most council
municipalities and inspected throughout construction.
3) Trees broken off & uprooted: The nature of soils and the
amount of dryness in both the soil and the tree preceding the
storm have a great bearing on whether a tree will survive that
storm.
Notwithstanding the shear devestation of severe storms in areas
like the USA and Bangladesh, my point is spitting hairs really.
If professionally assessed, what appears initially to be F4/5
damage might be F3/4 instead.
Put this way, if one was to inspect the damage done to a farm
house whether still sitting on its foundations or not, you also
need to assess how the building was attached originally and the
nature of construction employed. For example, a really old farm
house in country NSW would have dry and brittle timbers that
might shatter in a severe storm. A more modern house might flex
a lot more as it's timbers are more supple.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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007
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High Pressure
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 11:37:32 +1000 (EST)
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Keith Barnett wrote:
> It was over Tasmania, not NSW, and in 1967. This is a favoured place for
> intense anticyclones in winter. The pressure of course is lower in NSW
> but in this situation (as it was in 1967) it is often accompanied by
> east coast lows (3 in that month).
> A similar event happened in June 1964 (the year the Beatles hit the
> country, although I hated their music at the time!) and ,one I don't
> remember was June 1950 when there were 5 east coast lows in the one
> month.
> With the current La Nina don't be surprised if it happens again next
> month.
> No doubt someone has done some sort of an analysis of the frequency of
> these systems..
I'm not sure that anyone has; someone here (Bob Leighton) has done
extensive analysis of the frequency of anticyclone occurence, but if
he's done anything on intensity I haven't seen it.
As far as I know no-one has even determined the highest instrumentally
recorded pressure in Australia - which means I'll try to do it myself
(although it will be a non-trivial task, because there is enough
erroneous data in the database - mostly material double-corrected to
sea level - to conceal the genuine obs). I expect the Hobart figure
mentioned by Don White is fairly close to an Australian record.
Blair Trewin
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008
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Killer Tornadoes in Oaklahoma
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 11:44:53 +1000 (EST)
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Given that we've seen what might be called the ultimate disaster-film
scenario - an F5 making a direct hit on a major city - I think we
can be grateful that the death toll was as low as it was - I would
have expected something well into three figures from a storm of that
intensity. It says a lot for the systems the Americans have in place
to issue warnings (and, more specifically, to communicate them).
I believe one of my colleagues is in Norman this week - will be
interested to find out what he has to say (especially if he's got
photos).
There's quite a bit of discussion on sci.geo.meteorology, as you'd
expect - much of it centred around a media report of 'possible F6'
and whether or not the F6 classification exists. (I think, although
I could be wrong on the details, that the Fujita scale theoretically
extends to F12, but as an F5 flattens everything in its path it is
practically impossible to assess a tornado as being anything higher
than F5 from damage surveys).
There is supposed to be some awesome footage of it on CNN, which an
Australian TV station has presumably picked up - has anyone taped it?
Blair Trewin
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009
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: "Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: NSW ASWA Meeting
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 11:52:04 +1000
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To all the NSW members,
Unfortunately I will have to make apologies for the meeting on the 9th, the
Mothers Day Bug has caught me out.
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW.
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010
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High Pressure
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 11:49:01 +1000
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Interestingly enough, the last two cold fronts that have passed through NSW
(the first real winter cold fronts for this year) have both spawned east
coast lows. It seems the next one comming along will be weak by the time it
gets here, but, we'll see...
----------
> From: Blair Trewin
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: High Pressure
> Date: Wednesday, 5 May 1999 11:37
>
> Keith Barnett wrote:
> > It was over Tasmania, not NSW, and in 1967. This is a favoured place
for
> > intense anticyclones in winter. The pressure of course is lower in NSW
> > but in this situation (as it was in 1967) it is often accompanied by
> > east coast lows (3 in that month).
> > A similar event happened in June 1964 (the year the Beatles hit the
> > country, although I hated their music at the time!) and ,one I don't
> > remember was June 1950 when there were 5 east coast lows in the one
> > month.
> > With the current La Nina don't be surprised if it happens again next
> > month.
> > No doubt someone has done some sort of an analysis of the frequency of
> > these systems..
> I'm not sure that anyone has; someone here (Bob Leighton) has done
> extensive analysis of the frequency of anticyclone occurence, but if
> he's done anything on intensity I haven't seen it.
>
> As far as I know no-one has even determined the highest instrumentally
> recorded pressure in Australia - which means I'll try to do it myself
> (although it will be a non-trivial task, because there is enough
> erroneous data in the database - mostly material double-corrected to
> sea level - to conceal the genuine obs). I expect the Hobart figure
> mentioned by Don White is fairly close to an Australian record.
>
> Blair Trewin
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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011
X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 13:19:42 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Did anyone else receive this email? A bit too technical for me!
>From: CaseyAV at aol.com
>Date: Mon, 3 May 1999 19:21:23 EDT
>Subject: You may wish to be apprised of a new tornado
> perspective:semi-epicycloids!
>To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
>X-Mailer: AOL 3.0 for Windows 95 sub 18
>
>There is a new and exciting perspective being looked into which relates
>tornado phenomena to multiple occurring mesocells within a singular related
>process. Several major tornado outbreaks within the U.S. which include the
>May 26, 1963 Oklahoma outbreak(after Keith Browning, AFCRL,1963), the April
>11, 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak(after Bradbury and Fujita, SMRP#86, University
>of Chicago), and the April 3-4, 1974 Super outbreak(after Hoxit and Chappell,
>NOAA, Boulder, Colorado) have demonstrated a common and interlinked
>relationship which have a fundamental basis that links interrelated storms
>together.
>
>According to David Van Grunsven,researcher on past tornado outbreaks
>including the above, there is indeed a mathematical relationship which has
>been identified. This mathematical process is defined as semi-epicycloid
>cycling and it is determined from the basic geostrophic equations of motion.
>
>Those geostrophic equations which relate the pressure field with the
>horizontal velocity are defined as:
>
> dx/dt=-1/rhopartial pressure/partial x-fu
> dy/dx=-1/rhopartial pressure/partial y+fv
>
>Van Grunsven has taken these equations and combined them into a two
>dimensional momentum field having the following charateristics:
>
> d(x+y)/dt=-1/rho(partial pressure/partial x+partial
>pressure/partial y)-f(u-v)
>
>The focus of attention has been placed on the term,f(u-v), which is subjected
>to a double integration, has like terms combined, and has these components
>separated back into terms of x and y with the result:
>
> x=+/-2cosx-cos2x and
> y=+/-2sinx-sin2x
> or
> x=+/-2sinx-sin2x and
> y=+/-2cosx-cos2x
>
>These are semi-epicycloids which are orientable to the extent and proximity
>of the pressure field. Further, the mathematical relationship of the curve
>of the semi-epicycloid links the multiple occurring mesocells and
>interrelates them on a time and location basis such as to provide a nexus for
>a prediction model.
>
>This prediction model is demonstrated in the May 26, 1963 Oklahoma outbreak.
>According to Browning, three to four storms were responsible for tornadic
>activity. These storms denoted as E,G,H-1, and H-2, shed light on the nature
>of a semi-epicycloid operation. The times of these storms' irst tornado
>touchdowns show that Storm E generated its firts tornado at 1540 cst, Storm
>G, 1630 cst, Storm H-1, 1655 cst, and Storm H-2, 1720 cst. If the
>semi-epicycloid cycling process is intact within this operation, that process
>should be demonstrated. It is for the respective times and locations of
>these tornados and storms are coincident with the arrival times on the curve
>of the semi-epicycloid to that curve's extrema! or critical points. In other
>words, these storms initiate each respective initial tornado as firecrackers
>explode at precise locations on a common fuse length. The times of each
>initial tornado from E through H-2 is commensurate with cycling through the
>curve of the semi-epicycloid from 0 to pi in the range [0,pi]; the critical
>points being identified as 0,1/2pi.2/3pi, and pi. Given constant velocity,
>these points are arried from Storm E, through Storm G, Storm H-1, aand Storm
>H-2 with an average 37.5 mph. This cycle of storms is said to constitute a
>single cycle of activity.
>
>Now the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak occurring about two yeras after
>this Oklahoma event is said to consist of SEVEN semi-epicycloid cycles.
>These are denoted as follows:
>
> Storm Grouping x
>coordinate y coordinate
> B,A,C
>-2cosx+cos2x 2sinx-sin2x
> D,F,E
>2sinx-sin2x -2cosx+cos2x
> G and 2 Lake Michigan waterspouts2cosx-cos2x
>-2sinx+sin2x
> J,K,L,M
>-2sinx+sin2x 2cosx-cos2x
> H,I,00826,N
>-2cosx+cos2x -2sinx+sin2x
> 00626,00726,[J,K],O -2cosx+cos2x
> -2sinx+sin2x
> L,P,Q,R
>-2cosx+cos2x -2sinx+sin2x
>
>The entire Palm Sunday outbreak can be demonstrated to exhibit theseseries of
>storms in unique 'wavelets' of activity.
>
>The April 3-4, 1974 Super outbreak, while complicated by multiple occurring
>squall-lines, still demonstrates semi-epicycloid cycling activity. Those
>storms initiated by the westernmost squall-line produce what appear to be
>alternating sine and cosine configured conformations. That is, beginning
>with the Carlock storm, the Decatur storm, the Lincoln storm, and the Owaniko
>storm oriented as they are north-south demarcate a sine configured
>semi-epicycloid cycle. The following series of storm including the
>Monticello tornado are associated with a cosine configured semi-epicycloid
>cycle. This appears to be followed by another sine configured series which
>again is followed by another cosine configuration. Those storms associated
>with the Depauw, Medora, Fountaintown, and Xenia tornados comprise a
>semi-epicycloid as do those storm which make up the First Tanner, Phil
>Cmpbell, Carbon Hill, Alabama funnel clouid, and Jasper tornadosis another.
>
>Semi-epicycloid cycling may be the means whereby future storm locations and
>times of tornado development can be ascertained. These findings are now
>being assessed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma,
>U.S.A.
*==========================================================*
Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au
Australian Severe Weather
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
*==========================================================*
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012
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Tornado Damage Assessment
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 13:44:33 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Hi Michael...
A comment from US OK news reports...
Wendy Knapp, a Red Cross volunteer ...
''I've been in several of them in my lifetime. But this was a big one,''
she said. ''This did more damage than I've ever seen in my life. There are
dead cattle in people's yard, trees, debris. Grass was ripped up. At some
homes, the foundations were ripped up.''
I guess the houses were well tied down!!!
John W.
>Snip
2) Houses lifted off foundations: Construction standards again.
A house "tied down" with steel is likely to have its roof
demolished rather than the whole house lifted in an F4/5. I've
witnessed the implementation of construction codes in both the
US and Australia. We're much tougher in Oz with more stiffening,
tie-downs, larger foundations, qeotech surveys, stronger
materials e.g. timber sections, mandated in most council
municipalities and inspected throughout construction.
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013
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM District Boundaries, was Woolbrook was -Katoomba Site: was "Brisbane Totals + Brisbane Froze O'night"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 13:54:14 +1000 (EST)
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Laurier Williams wrote:
> The Bureau's climatic district boundaries are a bit of an enigma. Some
> years ago, I plotted all Australian rainfall stations and their
> numbers in a Readers Digest 1:1,000,000 (or 1cm=10km) Australian
> Atlas. The rainfall station numbers include the district number. Then,
> using the highest scale maps showing rainfall districts that I could
> obtain from the Bureau, I set about plotting the district boundaries.
> In areas where the rainfall stations are numerous, it was easy to see
> that the original designer of the district boundaries had followed,
> most commonly, watersheds or rivers. In flatter country, the lines are
> pretty arbitrary. Some, like the division between the western and
> eastern Northern Tablelands, perform a graceful arc that simply
> divides a bigger district into two roughly equal halves.
>
> Is there such a thing as a definitive climatic districts map, or
> detailed description of these boundaries? Does anyone know anything of
> their history, as they appear to have been unchanged since the very
> earliest days of the Bureau.
This is correct - although I don't know the history (I will attempt
to find something out). The district rainfall averages date from
1913, but I don't know whether the district boundaries themselves were
determined at that date, or whether district averages were calculated
retrospectively. I doubt if the boundaries have changed since at least
the 1920's, except for districts 14 and 15 (Northern Territory), which
were split into several sub-districts, in the 1960's I think.
Given the gasps of horror when I, as a relative newcomer on the scene,
suggested that the best way of dealing with district 40's impending
running out of station numbers (it's in SE Queensland and has 900+
stations) was to amalgamate the relatively small districts 42 and
43 (the area between about Miles and Mitchell) and create a new
district 42 in the southern half of the old 40, the boundaries are very
well-entrenched indeed. I believe that rural interests, particularly,
make a lot of use of the district averages, even though they take no
account of changes in station density and uneven distribution, and are
therefore meaningless in any district that has significant climatic
differences over its area (district 97, SW Tasmania, is a textbook
example - most of its stations are concentrated in the very wet area
around Queenstown and the opening of stations in drier areas (a
relative term!!) like Strathgordon and Melaleuca sent the district
average through the floor - there was a paper about this last year
in the Met. Mag.).
There are also problems when our district boundaries don't match
those used by other government agencies in states where regions are
defined (e.g. the Gascoyne in WA).
Blair Trewin
> To answer Michael's quandary, the division between the NW Slopes and
> Northern Tablelands runs west of Inverell (which surprisingly is in
> therefore part of the Northern Tablelands), then heads pretty much
> south to pick up the watershed between the Gwydir and Namoi Rivers
> west of Bundarra. It follows this until it is east of Woolbrook
> (placing Woolbrook and the Moonbi Ranges in the NW Slopes), then
> wanders south until it hits the boundary of the Hunter basin. Most of
> the western Northern Tablelands district drains to the west.
>
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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014
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 14:09:08 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Hmmm..
Sounds to me like someone has their hand fairly firmly attached to their
member. Just a complex way of saying each cell in a tornadic multicell
environment will tend to drop a twister at a corresponding point in
successive cell development.
John W.
>snip
>There is a new and exciting perspective being looked into which relates
>tornado phenomena to multiple occurring mesocells within a singular
related
>process. Several major tornado outbreaks within the U.S. which include
the
>May 26, 1963 Oklahoma outbreak(after Keith Browning, AFCRL,1963), the
April
>11, 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak(after Bradbury and Fujita, SMRP#86,
University
>of Chicago), and the April 3-4, 1974 Super outbreak(after Hoxit and
Chappell,
>NOAA, Boulder, Colorado) have demonstrated a common and interlinked
>relationship which have a fundamental basis that links interrelated storms
>together.
>
>According to David Van Grunsven,researcher on past tornado outbreaks
>including the above, there is indeed a mathematical relationship which has
>been identified. This mathematical process is defined as semi-epicycloid
>cycling and it is determined from the basic geostrophic equations of
motion.
>
>Those geostrophic equations which relate the pressure field with the
>horizontal velocity are defined as:
>
> dx/dt=-1/rhopartial pressure/partial x-fu
> dy/dx=-1/rhopartial pressure/partial y+fv
>
>Van Grunsven has taken these equations and combined them into a two
>dimensional momentum field having the following charateristics:
>
> d(x+y)/dt=-1/rho(partial pressure/partial x+partial
>pressure/partial y)-f(u-v)
>
>The focus of attention has been placed on the term,f(u-v), which is
subjected
>to a double integration, has like terms combined, and has these components
>separated back into terms of x and y with the result:
>
> x=+/-2cosx-cos2x and
> y=+/-2sinx-sin2x
> or
> x=+/-2sinx-sin2x and
> y=+/-2cosx-cos2x
>
>These are semi-epicycloids which are orientable to the extent and
proximity
>of the pressure field. Further, the mathematical relationship of the
curve
>of the semi-epicycloid links the multiple occurring mesocells and
>interrelates them on a time and location basis such as to provide a nexus
for
>a prediction model.
>
>This prediction model is demonstrated in the May 26, 1963 Oklahoma
outbreak.
>According to Browning, three to four storms were responsible for tornadic
>activity. These storms denoted as E,G,H-1, and H-2, shed light on the
nature
>of a semi-epicycloid operation. The times of these storms' irst tornado
>touchdowns show that Storm E generated its firts tornado at 1540 cst,
Storm
>G, 1630 cst, Storm H-1, 1655 cst, and Storm H-2, 1720 cst. If the
>semi-epicycloid cycling process is intact within this operation, that
process
>should be demonstrated. It is for the respective times and locations of
>these tornados and storms are coincident with the arrival times on the
curve
>of the semi-epicycloid to that curve's extrema! or critical points. In
other
>words, these storms initiate each respective initial tornado as
firecrackers
>explode at precise locations on a common fuse length. The times of each
>initial tornado from E through H-2 is commensurate with cycling through
the
>curve of the semi-epicycloid from 0 to pi in the range [0,pi]; the
critical
>points being identified as 0,1/2pi.2/3pi, and pi. Given constant
velocity,
>these points are arried from Storm E, through Storm G, Storm H-1, aand
Storm
>H-2 with an average 37.5 mph. This cycle of storms is said to constitute
a
>single cycle of activity.
>
>Now the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak occurring about two yeras
after
>this Oklahoma event is said to consist of SEVEN semi-epicycloid cycles.
>These are denoted as follows:
>
> Storm Grouping x
>coordinate y coordinate
> B,A,C
>-2cosx+cos2x 2sinx-sin2x
> D,F,E
>2sinx-sin2x -2cosx+cos2x
> G and 2 Lake Michigan waterspouts2cosx-cos2x
>-2sinx+sin2x
> J,K,L,M
>-2sinx+sin2x 2cosx-cos2x
> H,I,00826,N
>-2cosx+cos2x -2sinx+sin2x
> 00626,00726,[J,K],O
-2cosx+cos2x
> -2sinx+sin2x
> L,P,Q,R
>-2cosx+cos2x -2sinx+sin2x
>
>The entire Palm Sunday outbreak can be demonstrated to exhibit theseseries
of
>storms in unique 'wavelets' of activity.
>
>The April 3-4, 1974 Super outbreak, while complicated by multiple
occurring
>squall-lines, still demonstrates semi-epicycloid cycling activity. Those
>storms initiated by the westernmost squall-line produce what appear to be
>alternating sine and cosine configured conformations. That is, beginning
>with the Carlock storm, the Decatur storm, the Lincoln storm, and the
Owaniko
>storm oriented as they are north-south demarcate a sine configured
>semi-epicycloid cycle. The following series of storm including the
>Monticello tornado are associated with a cosine configured semi-epicycloid
>cycle. This appears to be followed by another sine configured series
which
>again is followed by another cosine configuration. Those storms
associated
>with the Depauw, Medora, Fountaintown, and Xenia tornados comprise a
>semi-epicycloid as do those storm which make up the First Tanner, Phil
>Cmpbell, Carbon Hill, Alabama funnel clouid, and Jasper tornadosis
another.
>
>Semi-epicycloid cycling may be the means whereby future storm locations
and
>times of tornado development can be ascertained. These findings are now
>being assessed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman,
Oklahoma,
>U.S.A.
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015
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 14:20:48 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado Damage Assessment
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
John Woodbridge wrote:
>
> Hi Michael...
>
> A comment from US OK news reports...
>
> Wendy Knapp, a Red Cross volunteer ...
> ''I've been in several of them in my lifetime. But this was a big one,''
> she said. ''This did more damage than I've ever seen in my life. There are
> dead cattle in people's yard, trees, debris. Grass was ripped up. At some
> homes, the foundations were ripped up.''
>
> I guess the houses were well tied down!!!
Thanks John,
I must admit a macabre (right word?) interest in such details,
there being foundations and FOUNDATIONS. I'd love to see some
pics and details of this incredibly destructive event. I've got
footage of the Jarrell 1997 tornados where nothing was left of
a house except the concrete slab that it was (once) sitting
on:-( In the May 1999 OK case, "well tied down" foundations
being lifted could well be one case of the most severe tornado
damage ever recorded.
Somehow, I can't imagine how such an event could lift the
600x600mm reinforced concrete strip footings of our two story
home. I could imagine that the 450mm concrete brick-encased
columns might shear off at their base where the 12mm steel
rods anchor them and all of the brickwork being demolished.
Design codes are pretty tough but not tough enough for an
F5. Somehow, being able to withstand a lifting force on our
roof of 1.5 tonnes per square metre may not be enough:-(
Not a pleasant thought at all...
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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016
X-Sender: cmaunder at mail.dynamite.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.0
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 14:48:08 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
At 14:09 5/05/99 , you wrote:
>Hmmm..
>
>Sounds to me like someone has their hand fairly firmly attached to their
>member. Just a complex way of saying each cell in a tornadic multicell
>environment will tend to drop a twister at a corresponding point in
>successive cell development.
Yes - but don't you find it exciting that someone has developed a simple
methematical relationship showing how the spawn times for tornadoes within
a single system can be predicted simply by calculating the critical points
on the curve?
Sure - it may be an intuitive result - but if this guy has proved it then
I for one think it's pretty cool.
Chris
>>There is a new and exciting perspective being looked into which relates
>>tornado phenomena to multiple occurring mesocells within a singular
>related process.
[snip]
>Further, the mathematical relationship of the curve
>>of the semi-epicycloid links the multiple occurring mesocells and
>>interrelates them on a time and location basis such as to provide a nexus
>for a prediction model.
[snip]
> It is for the respective times and locations of
>>these tornados and storms are coincident with the arrival times on the
>curve of the semi-epicycloid to that curve's extrema! or critical points.
In
>other words, these storms initiate each respective initial tornado as
firecrackers
>>explode at precise locations on a common fuse length.
------------------------------------------------------
Chris Maunder Canberra, Australia
Administrator CodeGuru - www.codeguru.com
Technical Consultant Dundas software - www.dundas.com
Storms www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
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017
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 14:56:20 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: [Fwd: can you smell the adrehnelin over there?? .. the news you'vebeen
waiting for]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey all,
This is from Narelle Bowmaker, fellow Brisbanite who is chasing in the
US. She will be back on Friday/Saturday I think - she chased the F5
tornado!!! I asked her if I could forward this to the list, and she
said yes...her and her chase partners have people trying to get
exclusive rights to some of the footage! She said the wall cloud was
2km long at one stage!!!! Anyway...I'm sure by just looking at her tone
that she herself cannot believe it.
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: can you smell the adrehnelin over there?? .. the news you've been waiting for
Date: Tue, 04 May 1999 15:45:06 -0500
From: "Karl W. Schulze" [kschulze at earthlink.net]
To: cyclone at stealth.com.au, nicks at beyond.net.au,
bartlett at ihug.com.au,chisan at bigpond.com,
ncreek at orionvisuals.com,info at globalessences.com.au, SSher88 at aol.com,
d166 at eisa.net.au
from Monday, May the 3rd ....
.... I was everywhere you needed to be, and then some
(where I shouldn't have been ... of course! )
I have lived a day that I will never be able to adequately describe,
ever.
I followed 200 meters in the wake of history in the making - a long
track,
multiple vorteces F5 WEDGE tornado of violently devestating proportions,
on
the ground for nearly an hour.
Textbooks will be rewritten
Imagine somebody took the climatic "TWISTER" F5 and placed it down
smack
bang in front of you to chase.
We were with it from it's genesis SW of Lawton, till mid downtown
Oklahoma
city - we were only forced to abandon pursuit when the 4 lanes of both
sides of the road were completely blocked by ropes of downed lines....
the
long and detailed video (of which I shot 95% by the way), will reveal
all!
We started at Witchita Falls 10am yesterday, and I haven't yet slept,
although Karl crashed an hour or so ago ...
How do I explain the chase that 99% of the people will only ever dream
of?
... how do you describe a day of biblical proportions?
ONE chase day. 10 individual TRUNK or significant CONE tornadoes,
including FOUR WEDGES, 3-4 of which made multiple touchdowns during
their
rotations life-cycle, the last 4 being classic NIGHT CHASE
captures....such
a day is undreamt of. I have no way of ever appreciating what I've
witnessed, what Karl and I became a part of. That epic dream where you
were exactly where you needed to be when all hell broke loose.
There simply won't be any way to descibe the magnitude of yesterday
.....
there will be people today, retiring from the chase forever ... IT
simply
doesn't come any better than it was yesterday.
Admittedly, chasers (weather & amatuer) and TV alike were all over the
'main event' like flies - geez, tv had a chopper in the air so how do
you
beat that? It was a case of 'pick a lowering, ANY lowering' - but we
picked the doozy of them all ...... and we were without doubt amoungst
the
closest trailing it - the when you've got rain raining UPwards and your
hair is sucked up vertically and the lighter edge of the debri cloud is
raining down around you kinda close.
And the sound ... forget friggin freight trains or jet engines ....
think
Niagra Falls .... one hundred fold.
Should be able to pick up the pics in an hour or so .... dunno if I'm
supposed to wake Karl.
2 or 3 hours of sleep would never do him ... but we have shitloads of
stuff
to prepare for a weather chapter thing of sorts tonight, over at Texas
A&M,
that we're basically the main attraction at, tonight at 7pm.
Oh MAN, the full story will out - but I need a snooze, but spread the
word
that if I never Chase again in my entire life, I will still die with a
cup
that runnethed over ..... truly the golden chaliced gift from above.
can you smell the adrehnelin over there?? ... way wired and swinging
from
the ceiling fans!!!
(What a way to end my stay)
the reed humbled to the winds
rals
p.s. - for Darren - forward to Fiona and Estelle, or post a copy to the
lunchroom board on 14th or whatever, please n thanks?
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018
X-Sender: jacob at iinet.net.au
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Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 13:15:41 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Perth - Severe thunderstorm advice
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Looks like our severe storm season has started, nice cold front approaching.
PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
ISSUED AT 10.45AM WEDNESDAY 5/05/1999
PEOPLE IN THE SOUTHERN LOWER WEST DISTRICT INCLUDING THE PERTH AND
MANDURAH AREAS, THE SOUTHWEST DISTRICT AND ADJACENT GREAT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTH COASTAL DISTRICTS INCLUDING ALBANY, ARE ADVISED THAT THERE
IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THAT COULD
RESULT IN LOCALISED DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.
PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, IF
STORMS APPROACH SECURE LOOSE ITEMS, MOVE VEHICLES UNDER COVER, THEN
STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.
THIS THUNDERSTORM ADVICE WILL BE UPDATED AT 2.00PM.
FORECAST FOR METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 1050 hours on Wednesday, 05/05/99
ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
The temperature at 10.30am was 24.0 degrees Celsius.
PERTH AND METROPOLITAN:
A Severe Thunderstorm Advice has been issued for today.
Rain periods developing, with the risk of thunderstorms.
NW'ly winds, squally at times.
MAX: 23
FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: High
Hills: High
Rain periods, with the risk of thunderstorms, are likely to
develop later today or tonight as a cold front approaches the west
coast. Heavy rain and squally winds should accompany thunderstorms.
The rain should slowly clear during Thursday as the cold front
moves away and cold southerly winds extend across the SW of the
state. Fine weather is expected for Friday and Saturday.
OUTLOOKS FOR PERTH FOR:
THURSDAY: Some showers Max 19
FRIDAY: Fine Max 20
SATURDAY: Fine Max 22
Jacob
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019
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 16:27:31 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Michael, you would have to study dynamical meteorology to study that stuff.
I have a dynamical meteorology book and you can read it if you wish. Good
luck. I haven't as yet although I have read some components.
Jimmy Deguara
At 13:19 5/05/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Did anyone else receive this email? A bit too technical for me!
>
>>From: CaseyAV at aol.com
>>Date: Mon, 3 May 1999 19:21:23 EDT
>>Subject: You may wish to be apprised of a new tornado
>> perspective:semi-epicycloids!
>>To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
>>X-Mailer: AOL 3.0 for Windows 95 sub 18
>>
>>There is a new and exciting perspective being looked into which relates
>>tornado phenomena to multiple occurring mesocells within a singular related
>>process. Several major tornado outbreaks within the U.S. which include the
>>May 26, 1963 Oklahoma outbreak(after Keith Browning, AFCRL,1963), the April
>>11, 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak(after Bradbury and Fujita, SMRP#86,
University
>>of Chicago), and the April 3-4, 1974 Super outbreak(after Hoxit and
Chappell,
>>NOAA, Boulder, Colorado) have demonstrated a common and interlinked
>>relationship which have a fundamental basis that links interrelated storms
>>together.
>>
>>According to David Van Grunsven,researcher on past tornado outbreaks
>>including the above, there is indeed a mathematical relationship which has
>>been identified. This mathematical process is defined as semi-epicycloid
>>cycling and it is determined from the basic geostrophic equations of motion.
>>
>>Those geostrophic equations which relate the pressure field with the
>>horizontal velocity are defined as:
>>
>> dx/dt=-1/rhopartial pressure/partial x-fu
>> dy/dx=-1/rhopartial pressure/partial y+fv
>>
>>Van Grunsven has taken these equations and combined them into a two
>>dimensional momentum field having the following charateristics:
>>
>> d(x+y)/dt=-1/rho(partial pressure/partial x+partial
>>pressure/partial y)-f(u-v)
>>
>>The focus of attention has been placed on the term,f(u-v), which is
subjected
>>to a double integration, has like terms combined, and has these components
>>separated back into terms of x and y with the result:
>>
>> x=+/-2cosx-cos2x and
>> y=+/-2sinx-sin2x
>> or
>> x=+/-2sinx-sin2x and
>> y=+/-2cosx-cos2x
>>
>>These are semi-epicycloids which are orientable to the extent and proximity
>>of the pressure field. Further, the mathematical relationship of the curve
>>of the semi-epicycloid links the multiple occurring mesocells and
>>interrelates them on a time and location basis such as to provide a nexus
for
>>a prediction model.
>>
>>This prediction model is demonstrated in the May 26, 1963 Oklahoma
outbreak.
>>According to Browning, three to four storms were responsible for tornadic
>>activity. These storms denoted as E,G,H-1, and H-2, shed light on the
nature
>>of a semi-epicycloid operation. The times of these storms' irst tornado
>>touchdowns show that Storm E generated its firts tornado at 1540 cst, Storm
>>G, 1630 cst, Storm H-1, 1655 cst, and Storm H-2, 1720 cst. If the
>>semi-epicycloid cycling process is intact within this operation, that
process
>>should be demonstrated. It is for the respective times and locations of
>>these tornados and storms are coincident with the arrival times on the
curve
>>of the semi-epicycloid to that curve's extrema! or critical points. In
other
>>words, these storms initiate each respective initial tornado as
firecrackers
>>explode at precise locations on a common fuse length. The times of each
>>initial tornado from E through H-2 is commensurate with cycling through the
>>curve of the semi-epicycloid from 0 to pi in the range [0,pi]; the critical
>>points being identified as 0,1/2pi.2/3pi, and pi. Given constant velocity,
>>these points are arried from Storm E, through Storm G, Storm H-1, aand
Storm
>>H-2 with an average 37.5 mph. This cycle of storms is said to constitute a
>>single cycle of activity.
>>
>>Now the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak occurring about two yeras after
>>this Oklahoma event is said to consist of SEVEN semi-epicycloid cycles.
>>These are denoted as follows:
>>
>> Storm Grouping x
>>coordinate y coordinate
>> B,A,C
>>-2cosx+cos2x 2sinx-sin2x
>> D,F,E
>>2sinx-sin2x -2cosx+cos2x
>> G and 2 Lake Michigan waterspouts2cosx-cos2x
>>-2sinx+sin2x
>> J,K,L,M
>>-2sinx+sin2x 2cosx-cos2x
>> H,I,00826,N
>>-2cosx+cos2x -2sinx+sin2x
>> 00626,00726,[J,K],O
-2cosx+cos2x
>> -2sinx+sin2x
>> L,P,Q,R
>>-2cosx+cos2x -2sinx+sin2x
>>
>>The entire Palm Sunday outbreak can be demonstrated to exhibit
theseseries of
>>storms in unique 'wavelets' of activity.
>>
>>The April 3-4, 1974 Super outbreak, while complicated by multiple occurring
>>squall-lines, still demonstrates semi-epicycloid cycling activity. Those
>>storms initiated by the westernmost squall-line produce what appear to be
>>alternating sine and cosine configured conformations. That is, beginning
>>with the Carlock storm, the Decatur storm, the Lincoln storm, and the
Owaniko
>>storm oriented as they are north-south demarcate a sine configured
>>semi-epicycloid cycle. The following series of storm including the
>>Monticello tornado are associated with a cosine configured semi-epicycloid
>>cycle. This appears to be followed by another sine configured series which
>>again is followed by another cosine configuration. Those storms associated
>>with the Depauw, Medora, Fountaintown, and Xenia tornados comprise a
>>semi-epicycloid as do those storm which make up the First Tanner, Phil
>>Cmpbell, Carbon Hill, Alabama funnel clouid, and Jasper tornadosis another.
>>
>>Semi-epicycloid cycling may be the means whereby future storm locations and
>>times of tornado development can be ascertained. These findings are now
>>being assessed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman,
Oklahoma,
>>U.S.A.
>
>*==========================================================*
> Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au
> Australian Severe Weather
> http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
>*==========================================================*
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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020
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 17:18:51 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra connection explained
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Good weather observers are needed everywhere - my in laws all live in
Canberra in Holt, Mackellar etc and are starting to watch the weather.
What else do you do in Canberra ?
don W
Chris Maunder wrote:
>
> At 20:21 4/05/99 , Don wrote:
> >I see most people left Canberra - that proves they're intelligent, Jimmy.
>
> So where does that leave Patrick and I?? :)
>
> >Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> >>
> >> Most of the people in the group don't over drink and don't smoke. They are
> >> also
> >> quite intelligent - shit where does that leave me.
> >>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------
> Chris Maunder Canberra, Australia
> Administrator CodeGuru - www.codeguru.com
> Technical Consultant Dundas software - www.dundas.com
> Storms www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
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021
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High Pressure
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 17:21:44 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
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>
> Keith,
> Hobart's pressure reached 1043.9 at 9 am on 7 June 1967, despite the
> fact that the map drawn for the press for 9 am included a 1046 isobar
> passing through Tasmania. Hobart reported a pressure of 30.93 inches in
> 1877 - which is just of 1046 hectapascals - but I am not sure whether
> this is accepted as the Australian record - Blair might know.
> For the record, the highest pressure recorded in Sydney was 1039.7 on 12
> June 1930.
I just had a look at the Tasmanian Monthly Weather Review for June
1967 - the charts in that have a 1042 isobar more or less enclosing
Tasmania on the 7th, but nothing higher - maybe the press version
was a misprint?
Blair Trewin
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022
From: Dane Newman [dpn at bigpond.com]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: FW: Fwd: [WX-CHASE] OK Tornadoes
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 17:26:58 +1000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
-----Original Message-----
From: Alerts - Weatherctr.com [SMTP:alerts at weatherctr.com]
Sent: Wednesday, May 05, 1999 12:38 PM
To: hwcwx at ix.netcom.com; Weatherfun at onelist.com
Subject: [WEATHERFUN] Fwd: [WX-CHASE] OK Tornadoes
>Wx-Chasers,
>
>I thought I'd share my chase experience from yesterday.
>
>I left Norman around 2:30 PM for SW OK. Found out on the way that SPC had
>upgraded to high risk. I watched TCu become the first storm just N of LAW.
>The storm quickly developed a small wall cloud which almost immediately
>produced a brief tornado W of Elgin (I think).
>
>I took Hwy 277 and ended up on some back roads just W of Fletcher. A tornado
>was beginning about 10 miles to my NNW so I decided to stop. I filmed all of
>the elephant trunk tornado near Cement, that lasted at least 15 minutes. Got
>back to 277 but the storm was already getting away from me by this time. I
>could see another storm coming up into Caddo Co back to the WSW that looked
>good. Decided since I was already behind this storm and it was heading into
>very populated areas, that trying to stay with it wouldn't be wise. I headed
>W on Hwy 19 towards Apache. Monitoring the Cyril repeater, I heard the
>spotters' entire play-by-play of the large tornado continuing NE toward OKC.
>I couldn't believe what was happening.
>
>Drove to Hwy 62/281 about 10 mi N of Apache. A very impressive classic
>supercell was moving NE toward Anadarko. Set up on the tripod and shot a
>back-lit, slowly developing tornado with incredible storm structure. The
>tornado transitioned between a truncated cone with fingers occasionally
>shooting to the ground, to a rapidly rotating tube. Shot the tail end of it
>driving toward Anadarko. This tornado lasted more than 20 minutes. As the
>tornado became occluded and roped out, a new strongly rotating wall cloud
>was forming to the SE of it--looked like a classic cyclic tornadic
>supercell. Filmed that with an RFD slot beginning to work into it from the W
>while going through Anadarko.
>
>Made a bad road choice and I missed a road so I had to go all the way E to
>Chickasha, then N on 81. Heard reports of the continuing tornadoes with the
>storm now back to the NW. Saw the damage N of Chickasha with some buildings
>totally destroyed. Caught back up to the storm near Minco where I saw
>Howie's team, Carson Eads and various other chasers at this point. The storm
>still had incredible structure. I could just make out a faint tornado back
>in the haze under the now very large wall cloud circulation. Set up and
>filmed about 5 minutes of it as it moved closer to my W and NW, while sirens
>blared in Minco just to the S.
>
>Shot some wide angle footage of the incredible looking meso on this thing as
>I zig-zagged E and N toward I-40. Took Hwy 4 N toward Piedmont as darkness
>fell. There was a very strong odor of natural gas in this area. Filmed 2
>lightning illuminated tornadoes in the dark to the distant NW and NNE, from
>N of Piedmont, but the lightning didn't illuminate them very well from my
>angle. 2 large power flashes lit up the tornado that was heading for Cashion
>and up towards Mulhall to the NNE.
>
>I had enough by this point and headed home. I-35 and all southbound surface
>streets were blocked off from OKC due to the major damage from Chickasha
>into OKC. Finally got home around 2 AM. I believe I saw 8 tornadoes
>(counting 2 others I can't confirm yet) which is dwarfed by how many some
>others I know saw. I shot about 40 slides which are being developed, and I
>will post some to my web page shortly.
>
>It's certainly hard to celebrate something that has been so devastating. My
>prayers go out to the victims of this disaster.
>
>Keith B. Brown
>OU Meteorology Student
>http://students.ou.edu/B/Keith.B.Brown-1/
>KD5DOJ
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023
X-Originating-Ip: [193.113.57.20]
From: "John Roenfeldt" [wa_tornado at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado Damage Assessment
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 00:49:10 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>From: Michael Scollay
>Notwithstanding the shear devestation of severe storms in areas
>like the USA and Bangladesh, my point is spitting hairs really.
>If professionally assessed, what appears initially to be F4/5
>damage might be F3/4 instead.
>
>Put this way, if one was to inspect the damage done to a farm
>house whether still sitting on its foundations or not, you also
>need to assess how the building was attached originally and the
>nature of construction employed. For example, a really old farm
>house in country NSW would have dry and brittle timbers that
>might shatter in a severe storm. A more modern house might flex
>a lot more as it's timbers are more supple.
In respect to buildings, the Fujita scale does not distinguish and take into
account wether the building was built strong or not. If an older, not so
well built house is swept off its foundations, and a well built house is
only partially damaged, then the tornado will still get a rating of F5.
regards,
John Roenfeldt
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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024
X-Originating-Ip: [203.37.41.25]
From: "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra connection explained
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 01:18:23 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Good weather observers are needed everywhere - my in laws all live in
>Canberra in Holt, Mackellar etc and are starting to watch the weather.
>What else do you do in Canberra ?
Sadly, with a semi-permanent high parked over SE Aust for the last
few weeks, there aint been much weather to watch either....
Am going to SE Qld next week so at least I might get the chance
to see what an ECL looks like up close... (hopefully there might
be some nice beach weather as well..
Patrick
______________________________________________________
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025
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 01:27:46 -0700 (PDT)
From: David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com]
Subject: aus-wx: RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
--- Chris Maunder wrote:
> Yes - but don't you find it exciting that someone
> has developed a simple
> methematical relationship showing how the spawn
> times for tornadoes within
> a single system can be predicted simply by
> calculating the critical points
> on the curve?
Yeah I totally agree.
It's really mind-blowing to think of the level of organisation which is
going on in these super intense midwest storm systems.
Just think....subsequent generation advanced warning systems for
tornadoes will probably be based on such serendipities of seemingly
esoteric higher order stuff.
David
_________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
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026
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 18:35:43 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
he say what?
:-)
David Croan on 05/05/99 18:27:46
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
cc: (bcc: Paul Mossman/LCO/NSW_AG)
Subject: aus-wx: RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
--- Chris Maunder wrote:
> Yes - but don't you find it exciting that someone
> has developed a simple
> methematical relationship showing how the spawn
> times for tornadoes within
> a single system can be predicted simply by
> calculating the critical points
> on the curve?
Yeah I totally agree.
It's really mind-blowing to think of the level of organisation which is
going on in these super intense midwest storm systems.
Just think....subsequent generation advanced warning systems for
tornadoes will probably be based on such serendipities of seemingly
esoteric higher order stuff.
David
_________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
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027
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 19:13:25 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fujita Scale, was: Killer Tornadoes in Oaklahoma
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Blair and all,
I think you're quite right about the F-scale, it does theoretically go
up to F12 (mach 1 winds...) and I've often wondered about F6's myself.
But as you have pointed out, if an F5 destroys everything...how will we
know what an F6 is like? I guess maybe the patterns of dirt being dug
out could indicate something stronger then an F5...it also have to be
remembered how wind damage works. As in, 200km/h is not 2 times
stronger, but 4 times stronger then 100km/h. It's the square of the two
wind speeds (larger divided by the smaller) - so 300km/h is not 3 times
stronger, but 9 times stronger then 100km/h. And then 500km/h is not 5
times stronger, but 25 times stronger then 100km/h! When you think
about that, it's not hard to wonder why we may never be able to record
an F6.
Anthony Cornelius
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> Given that we've seen what might be called the ultimate disaster-film
> scenario - an F5 making a direct hit on a major city - I think we
> can be grateful that the death toll was as low as it was - I would
> have expected something well into three figures from a storm of that
> intensity. It says a lot for the systems the Americans have in place
> to issue warnings (and, more specifically, to communicate them).
>
> I believe one of my colleagues is in Norman this week - will be
> interested to find out what he has to say (especially if he's got
> photos).
>
> There's quite a bit of discussion on sci.geo.meteorology, as you'd
> expect - much of it centred around a media report of 'possible F6'
> and whether or not the F6 classification exists. (I think, although
> I could be wrong on the details, that the Fujita scale theoretically
> extends to F12, but as an F5 flattens everything in its path it is
> practically impossible to assess a tornado as being anything higher
> than F5 from damage surveys).
>
> There is supposed to be some awesome footage of it on CNN, which an
> Australian TV station has presumably picked up - has anyone taped it?
>
> Blair Trewin
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028
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: High Pressure
Date: Tue, 4 May 1999 22:10:16 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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It sure would be pushing up some cold air for New Zealand.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: Tim Grugeon [timg at iniaccess.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Tuesday, 4 May 1999 11:45
Subject: aus-wx: High Pressure
> Has anyone checked out that high pressure system developing in between
> Tasmania and the south island of New Zealand. It is predicted to have a
> centre pressure of 1037 hpa by tomorrow!!!
>
> Tim Grugeon
> Morpeth (Maitland), NSW
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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029
X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 19:51:58 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA now Incorporated
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I now have the Certificate of Incorporation of Association from the
Department of Fair Trading (NSW).
Registered No: Y2973345
Australian Severe Weather Association Incorporated
5th May 1999
It's all official now!
Thanks for everyone who helped with this.
regards, Michael
ASWA President.
*==========================================================*
Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au
Australian Severe Weather
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
*==========================================================*
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030
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: ASWA now Incorporated
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 20:25:29 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
CONGRATULATIONS TO US!!!!!!!
THREE CHEERS - WE'RE ON OUR WAY!!!!!!
..........AND YES - I AM SHOUTING!!!!!!
WOOHOOO!!!!!!.......................
we will now return to our normal transmission.....
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
>-----Original Message-----
>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael Bath
>Sent: Wednesday, 5 May 1999 7:52
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: ASWA now Incorporated
>
>
>I now have the Certificate of Incorporation of Association from the
>Department of Fair Trading (NSW).
>
>Registered No: Y2973345
> Australian Severe Weather Association Incorporated
> 5th May 1999
>
>It's all official now!
>
>Thanks for everyone who helped with this.
>
>regards, Michael
>ASWA President.
>
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031
From: "John Graham" [gorzzz at one.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Tornado Alley
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 20:26:11 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3612.1700
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Everyone,
Thought you might be interested in this site I found while snooping
around..........
http://www.teamtulsa.com/tornado/index.shtml
It's a website about Tornado Alley.......I'm just about to go & have a
peek.......
See Ya's
John
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032
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra connection explained
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 20:24:49 +1000
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SE Queensland is normally a bit north for East Coast lows. Any lows up there
will also have a far less pressure gradient, hence less wind and rain.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: Patrick Tobin [pdtobin at hotmail.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Wednesday, 5 May 1999 18:18
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra connection explained
> >Good weather observers are needed everywhere - my in laws all live in
> >Canberra in Holt, Mackellar etc and are starting to watch the weather.
> >What else do you do in Canberra ?
>
> Sadly, with a semi-permanent high parked over SE Aust for the last
> few weeks, there aint been much weather to watch either....
>
> Am going to SE Qld next week so at least I might get the chance
> to see what an ECL looks like up close... (hopefully there might
> be some nice beach weather as well..
>
> Patrick
>
>
> ______________________________________________________
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033
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting CNN interview RE: Tornadoes
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 20:36:51 +1000
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I watched a CNN report just this evening about severe weather in the last
year or so, Hurricane Mitch for example.
I wish Senator Hill saw the show, they interviewed a top US met' person and
asked him if the provision of advanced and free weather services by the US
government helped save lives, not only in the US but in less developed
countries.
The answer was obvious, except possibly to our current government.
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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034
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Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 20:42:53 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: satpic images of the Oklahoma outbreak
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Check out this site for some nice Satellite Images, soundings etc of the
tornado outbreak:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/990503.html
cheers, Michael
*==========================================================*
Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au
Australian Severe Weather
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
*==========================================================*
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035
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra connection explained
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 20:39:34 +1000
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.......and having said that the US NGP model has a nice low off SE
Queensland next Tuesday. Please read the word ' normally ' below.
Michael
> SE Queensland is normally a bit north for East Coast lows. Any lows up
there
> will also have a far less pressure gradient, hence less wind and rain.
>
> Michael
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Patrick Tobin
> To:
> Sent: Wednesday, 5 May 1999 18:18
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra connection explained
>
>
> > >Good weather observers are needed everywhere - my in laws all live in
> > >Canberra in Holt, Mackellar etc and are starting to watch the weather.
> > >What else do you do in Canberra ?
> >
> > Sadly, with a semi-permanent high parked over SE Aust for the last
> > few weeks, there aint been much weather to watch either....
> >
> > Am going to SE Qld next week so at least I might get the chance
> > to see what an ECL looks like up close... (hopefully there might
> > be some nice beach weather as well..
> >
> > Patrick
> >
> >
> > ______________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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>
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036
X-Originating-Ip: [203.27.197.48]
From: "Rod Aikman" [raikman at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: High pressure
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 20:46:46 EST
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Hi everyone,
From the information that I have, the highest pressure recorded
in Melbourne is 1042.0 on June 13, 1925 (an el nino year). I have the
synoptic chart for this date, and the anticyclone extends from the Western
Australian coast, all the way to New Zealand. As far as I can ascertain, the
record for May in Melbourne is 1041.2 in 1870. So to all the Victorians we
can take heart from the fact that 1870 proved to be a very wet year in spite
of a dominating high pressure regime in May of that year.
Rod Aikman
Bendigo
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037
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: MSC update
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 20:58:07 +1000
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The Wallan - Tallarook chase of the 3rd March 1999 - Andrew & Claire
McDonald & Chris Gribben is finally up with photos at.....
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/3_3_99.htm
Jane
Bayswater, Melbourne
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038
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 20:52:37 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I fear the author has a chronic case of furorem scribendi mathematicae.
Michael Bath wrote:
>
> Did anyone else receive this email? A bit too technical for me!
>
> >From: CaseyAV at aol.com
> >Date: Mon, 3 May 1999 19:21:23 EDT
> >Subject: You may wish to be apprised of a new tornado
> > perspective:semi-epicycloids!
> >To: mbath at ozemail.com.au
> >X-Mailer: AOL 3.0 for Windows 95 sub 18
> >
> >There is a new and exciting perspective being looked into which relates
> >tornado phenomena to multiple occurring mesocells within a singular related
> >process. Several major tornado outbreaks within the U.S. which include the
> >May 26, 1963 Oklahoma outbreak(after Keith Browning, AFCRL,1963), the April
> >11, 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak(after Bradbury and Fujita, SMRP#86, University
> >of Chicago), and the April 3-4, 1974 Super outbreak(after Hoxit and Chappell,
> >NOAA, Boulder, Colorado) have demonstrated a common and interlinked
> >relationship which have a fundamental basis that links interrelated storms
> >together.
> >
> >According to David Van Grunsven,researcher on past tornado outbreaks
> >including the above, there is indeed a mathematical relationship which has
> >been identified. This mathematical process is defined as semi-epicycloid
> >cycling and it is determined from the basic geostrophic equations of motion.
> >
> >Those geostrophic equations which relate the pressure field with the
> >horizontal velocity are defined as:
> >
> > dx/dt=-1/rhopartial pressure/partial x-fu
> > dy/dx=-1/rhopartial pressure/partial y+fv
> >
> >Van Grunsven has taken these equations and combined them into a two
> >dimensional momentum field having the following charateristics:
> >
> > d(x+y)/dt=-1/rho(partial pressure/partial x+partial
> >pressure/partial y)-f(u-v)
> >
> >The focus of attention has been placed on the term,f(u-v), which is subjected
> >to a double integration, has like terms combined, and has these components
> >separated back into terms of x and y with the result:
> >
> > x=+/-2cosx-cos2x and
> > y=+/-2sinx-sin2x
> > or
> > x=+/-2sinx-sin2x and
> > y=+/-2cosx-cos2x
> >
> >These are semi-epicycloids which are orientable to the extent and proximity
> >of the pressure field. Further, the mathematical relationship of the curve
> >of the semi-epicycloid links the multiple occurring mesocells and
> >interrelates them on a time and location basis such as to provide a nexus for
> >a prediction model.
> >
> >This prediction model is demonstrated in the May 26, 1963 Oklahoma outbreak.
> >According to Browning, three to four storms were responsible for tornadic
> >activity. These storms denoted as E,G,H-1, and H-2, shed light on the nature
> >of a semi-epicycloid operation. The times of these storms' irst tornado
> >touchdowns show that Storm E generated its firts tornado at 1540 cst, Storm
> >G, 1630 cst, Storm H-1, 1655 cst, and Storm H-2, 1720 cst. If the
> >semi-epicycloid cycling process is intact within this operation, that process
> >should be demonstrated. It is for the respective times and locations of
> >these tornados and storms are coincident with the arrival times on the curve
> >of the semi-epicycloid to that curve's extrema! or critical points. In other
> >words, these storms initiate each respective initial tornado as firecrackers
> >explode at precise locations on a common fuse length. The times of each
> >initial tornado from E through H-2 is commensurate with cycling through the
> >curve of the semi-epicycloid from 0 to pi in the range [0,pi]; the critical
> >points being identified as 0,1/2pi.2/3pi, and pi. Given constant velocity,
> >these points are arried from Storm E, through Storm G, Storm H-1, aand Storm
> >H-2 with an average 37.5 mph. This cycle of storms is said to constitute a
> >single cycle of activity.
> >
> >Now the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday outbreak occurring about two yeras after
> >this Oklahoma event is said to consist of SEVEN semi-epicycloid cycles.
> >These are denoted as follows:
> >
> > Storm Grouping x
> >coordinate y coordinate
> > B,A,C
> >-2cosx+cos2x 2sinx-sin2x
> > D,F,E
> >2sinx-sin2x -2cosx+cos2x
> > G and 2 Lake Michigan waterspouts2cosx-cos2x
> >-2sinx+sin2x
> > J,K,L,M
> >-2sinx+sin2x 2cosx-cos2x
> > H,I,00826,N
> >-2cosx+cos2x -2sinx+sin2x
> > 00626,00726,[J,K],O -2cosx+cos2x
> > -2sinx+sin2x
> > L,P,Q,R
> >-2cosx+cos2x -2sinx+sin2x
> >
> >The entire Palm Sunday outbreak can be demonstrated to exhibit theseseries of
> >storms in unique 'wavelets' of activity.
> >
> >The April 3-4, 1974 Super outbreak, while complicated by multiple occurring
> >squall-lines, still demonstrates semi-epicycloid cycling activity. Those
> >storms initiated by the westernmost squall-line produce what appear to be
> >alternating sine and cosine configured conformations. That is, beginning
> >with the Carlock storm, the Decatur storm, the Lincoln storm, and the Owaniko
> >storm oriented as they are north-south demarcate a sine configured
> >semi-epicycloid cycle. The following series of storm including the
> >Monticello tornado are associated with a cosine configured semi-epicycloid
> >cycle. This appears to be followed by another sine configured series which
> >again is followed by another cosine configuration. Those storms associated
> >with the Depauw, Medora, Fountaintown, and Xenia tornados comprise a
> >semi-epicycloid as do those storm which make up the First Tanner, Phil
> >Cmpbell, Carbon Hill, Alabama funnel clouid, and Jasper tornadosis another.
> >
> >Semi-epicycloid cycling may be the means whereby future storm locations and
> >times of tornado development can be ascertained. These findings are now
> >being assessed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma,
> >U.S.A.
>
> *==========================================================*
> Michael Bath Oakhurst, Sydney mbath at ozemail.com.au
> Australian Severe Weather
> http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
> *==========================================================*
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039
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 21:01:34 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I dare say the late Professor Julius Sumner Miller would have said,
'..now, isn't that enchanting?'
or,
'..are we agreed, that this is a uniform,homogeneous and isotropic
tornado?..'
David Croan wrote:
>
> --- Chris Maunder wrote:
> > Yes - but don't you find it exciting that someone
> > has developed a simple
> > methematical relationship showing how the spawn
> > times for tornadoes within
> > a single system can be predicted simply by
> > calculating the critical points
> > on the curve?
>
> Yeah I totally agree.
> It's really mind-blowing to think of the level of organisation which is
> going on in these super intense midwest storm systems.
>
> Just think....subsequent generation advanced warning systems for
> tornadoes will probably be based on such serendipities of seemingly
> esoteric higher order stuff.
>
> David
> _________________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Get your free at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>
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040
From: "Rob & Mimi Lord" [robmimilord at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra connection explained
Date: Wed, 5 May 1999 21:37:45 +1000
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Thanks for enlightening me, Jane -it did have me a little puzzled.
Rob.
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041
X-Originating-Ip: [203.25.186.113]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Elastically-enhanced linguistic gymnastics...
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 05:06:58 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hmmnnn...
I'm driven to quote the foremost political statesman of the century, J.
Danforth Quayle, who on visiting a country in Latin America said... "I only
wish I'd studied more Latin in school so that I could converse with you in
your own language..."
Kevin from Wycheproof.
>From: Keith Barnett
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
>Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 21:01:34 +1000
>
>I dare say the late Professor Julius Sumner Miller would have said,
>'..now, isn't that enchanting?'
>or,
>'..are we agreed, that this is a uniform,homogeneous and isotropic
>tornado?..'
>
>David Croan wrote:
> >
> > --- Chris Maunder wrote:
> > > Yes - but don't you find it exciting that someone
> > > has developed a simple
> > > methematical relationship showing how the spawn
> > > times for tornadoes within
> > > a single system can be predicted simply by
> > > calculating the critical points
> > > on the curve?
> >
> > Yeah I totally agree.
> > It's really mind-blowing to think of the level of organisation which is
> > going on in these super intense midwest storm systems.
> >
> > Just think....subsequent generation advanced warning systems for
> > tornadoes will probably be based on such serendipities of seemingly
> > esoteric higher order stuff.
> >
> > David
> > _________________________________________________________
> > Do You Yahoo!?
> > Get your free at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
> >
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>your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
______________________________________________________
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042
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Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 23:14:27 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: new tornado perspective: semi-epicycloids!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
At 18:27 5/05/99 , you wrote:
>It's really mind-blowing to think of the level of organisation which is
>going on in these super intense midwest storm systems.
>
>Just think....subsequent generation advanced warning systems for
>tornadoes will probably be based on such serendipities of seemingly
>esoteric higher order stuff.
Exactly! The article mentioned 25 minute intervals for one sequence - more
than enough time to at least get emergency warnings broadcast.
Plus it's nice to know that 4 years of maths at Uni wasn't completely
wasted :)
Chris Maunder (Canberra)
http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
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| Document: 990505.htm
Updated: 12 May 1999 |
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