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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Monday, 10 May 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Out-of-this-world weather!
002 Bodie_27 at postmaster.co.uk Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
003 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. GASP is back...
004 Sam Barricklow [k5kj at pulse.net] 5/2/99 Tornado Outbreak
005 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist onPeril in the
006 Bodie_27 at postmaster.co.uk SSU Radar
007 Ross Portas [rportas at mindless.com] SSU Radar
008 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au] GASP is back...
009 Bodie_27 at postmaster.co.uk SSU Radar
010 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] GASP is back...
011 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Interesting Newspaper Article - Tornadoes in Perth??
012 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au] Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
013 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
014 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] SE QLD low
015 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
016 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au] Boreen Point, Sunhine Coast obs
017 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
018 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
019 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] RE:Tornadoes in Perth?? John Woodbridge i hope your joking!
020 "The Weather Co." [twc at theweather.com.au] Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
021 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Interesting Newspaper Article
022 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
023 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Interesting Newspaper Article - Tornadoes in Perth??
024 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Interesting Newspaper Article
025 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Interesting Newspaper Article - Tornadoes in
026 Dane Newman [dpn at bigpond.com] Tornado and Storm URL
027 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the S
028 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
029 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Interesting Newspaper Article - Tornadoes in Perth??
030 "John Graham" [gorzzz at one.net.au] ld/NSW Depression
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001
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 09:01:12 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Out-of-this-world weather!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Now from the 'something completely different' department...
http://universe.magnificent.com/sol/mars/FromEarth/HubbleMars/
Check out these beautiful images of Mars taken by Hubble. In particular,
check out the image of what appears to be a dust laden cold front crossing
the polar cap, and especially the b&w image, taken in blue light, that
clearly shows the mid latitude long waves in the martian atmosphere, as
well as more clear evidence of frontal boundaries.
Just goes to show how similar in some ways our two planets are....
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
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002
From: Bodie_27 at postmaster.co.uk
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 02:02:50 +0100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
I've lost my interenet access yet again, and at the worst time of course
(dam you murphy).. I managed to scam half an hour on the computers at
college, and i've just seen the models.. and holy snappers.. i think we can
expect some rain in Southern QLD/Norther NSW over the next few days :)
Like i said in a previous email, this whole situation reminds me very much
of the Situation that caused the Febuary floods in SE QLD, except at this
stage the dynamics of this system are much better, but as Anthony said the
models have been chopping and changing their minds for days.. i am however
tipping heavy rain in Brisbane overnight and tomorrow morning/during the
day, possible flooding.. and certainly squally winds, but i also think it's
possible that the heaviest falls could be south of Brisbane, as the weather
*should* come from the NE direction, or thereabouts.. and with the
unbelievably strong VV's to our ESE and moving S i think areas on the gold
coast could cop some major major rain... I think Anthony hit the na
il on the head with his previous email about possible storms wednesday.. i
also have my eye on the next front and associated upper level system/cold
pool that should arrive here late in the week, BOM have also picked this
up..
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)
Anthony Wrote:
Hi Michael,
I've been looking at this situation with interest for a long time, and
as I feared, the models certainly turned away from the 'bombing' of the
low off us, however they still have it intensifying somewhat. The upper
level system in this is amazing...the 700mb VV's are forecasted to be
-80 during Tuesday!!! That's to our ESE (where our winds will be coming
from) and while AVN has been all over the place, it's starting to
stabilize a little now, and on Tuesday 00z is saying our VV's over us
will be around -40 to -45 (overall average of all forecasts).
Certainly, no shortage of moisture over us, 80%+ RH up to 500mb. I do
not know what our vorticities will be (except from MRF) as I cannot
access the AVN raw data site as it's down, the same for LI's, and I also
rely on one of the variables it gives, to do CAPE extrapolations.
AVN has a cold pool of air sitting just to the W of us, and quite a
tight isothermal gradient over us is expected...if that cold pool of air
were to move E, near the low - and mix with those incredible VV's, I
think we'd be seeing some major damage here...but that's a rather
unlikely situation.
Certainly...Monday pm to Tuesday should be very interesting, with some
flash flooding possible (IMO) and depending on this low, some gales?
Wednesday is also proving to be possibly interesting, with the low
sitting over us, but directing NE winds over us...with -10 VV's, and if
the cloud clears, we could be seeing some thunderies. However - with
this entire situation, the models have had a horrible grip on it,
changing with every model run, and I have to say that anything could
really happen...any thoughts?
Anthony from Brisbane
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003
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 11:16:03 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: GASP is back...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Andrew Wall wrote:
>
> Hey Mike,
>
> Couldn't get the GASP on-line is there still a problem????
>
> At 17:35 5/7/99 +1000, you wrote:
> >http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/ is back on-line with
> >fresh updates out to May 13 predicting that ECL intensifying to 962mb
> >between Tas & NZ with some pretty chilly air coming north by the end
> >of next week. We'll see:-)
I was a bit slack in clarifying the URL's needed for these images.
Sorry:-(,I thought that people would have kept my previous Email
about this subject when it went "off-line". Here goes the more
explicit version...
http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/mslpTH8.html gives one rather large
thumbnails:-) I've got this bookmarked but I rarely cut and paste
from these. "Ben from Brisbane" reminded me:-) This is good for
printing and taking home on the train to study...Thanks BoM/BMRC!
I thought that most people would know that when a stuffed URL is
clicked on using IE or Netscape, then you get an error message,
just the directory listing or a smarter web-administrator like
BoM's would redirect one to a suitable search engine. When you
finally remove enough of the URL you get back to the BMRC home
page at http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc
As I run an automagic archiver, I point it at;
http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.0.gif
http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.1.gif
http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.2.gif
http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.3.gif
http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.4.gif
http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.5.gif
http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.6.gif
http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.7.gif
for each of the larger gif images. From there, I generate an
automatic animation which is rather coarse. I map every hour
would be nicer:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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004
Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 06:33:39 -0500
From: Sam Barricklow [k5kj at pulse.net]
Organization: The Storm Shop http://www.thestormshop.com/
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; U)
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: 5/2/99 Tornado Outbreak
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Good Morning,
The last week has been a very active one for severe weather in the
southern plains of the United States.
On 5/1/99, Al Moller (an NWS forecaster and chaser) and I drove
from the Dallas/Fort Worth area to Midland, Texas to chase.
When we arrived, after a five hour drive, a tornado warning was
being issued for a storm north of Midland, near the town of
Andrews, Texas. We intercepted the storm east of Andrews as the
tornadic mesocyclone was occluding and new one was spinning up
just to its east. We saw several funnels, with brief debris
whirls underneath at least two. The storm was in a classic
configuration, with a large and fairly thick band of precip in the
hook. As a new meso formed just east (ahead) of the occluded
meso, a second storm just to its west southwest began seeding the
updraft area, causing our storm to evolve into an HP
configuration. The road system did not allow us to keep up with
the new meso, which produced another tornado a few miles east of
our location. We drove back west to the second storm, which was
already in an HP stage due to a third storm to its WSW, which was
already seeding the updraft area. We stepped back to the third
storm, which was also in an HP configuration. I will post images
of these storms within a day or two. (See
http://www.pulse.net/storm/noframe.htm )
Monday, 5/3/99 produced a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma and
Kanasa. Unfortunately, several people lost their lives that day.
Because of a late start, I couldn't intercept the storm that
devastated Oklahoma City. However, I did intercept a second storm
that formed a few miles west of the where the first formed. My
storm was LP in appearance and it also produced a string of
tornadoes. I've posted images at:
http://www.k5kj.net/990503.htm
I've also posted links to reports from other chasers at:
http://www.k5kj.net/news.htm
The number of reports will likely increase as other chasers
complete their chase reports.
Here's another page that I have not had time to add to Storm News:
http://thedixons.net/weather/050399/050399.htm
On 5/4/99, I went to northeast Texas, but missed a tornado in De
Kalb, Texas, a small town between Texarkana and Paris, Texas
located just south of the Red River. The storm and tornado passed
about ten miles north of me as I raced toward the town.
Visibility was poor due to low clouds, rain and tall trees that
line the highway in this part of the state. As I drove into town,
people were just coming out of their damaged homes. Many seemed
dazed and confused and had not come to terms with what had just
happened to their homes. I will post a few damage photos soon.
A new system is forecast to enter the central and southern high
plains today. The computer models are not in agreement on this
system and I am about to start analyzing data. However, today is
Mother's day here in the States and I may or may not be able to go
today.
Sam Barricklow
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005
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 11:44:51 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist onPeril in the
Sunshine State" - Sunday Mail QLD
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ira Fehlberg wrote:
>
> Well eheheheh hum...
I really love these statistics comparing exercises! Great
reading aussie-weather people! I think I could be nasty
in saying that "there are statistics and damned statistics".
That's an attempt to prevent this thread turning into a
comparison exercise. I'd like to see a national database
containing such info and ditto for other countries. That's
a serious proposal.
Our US colleagues take the cake when it comes to those
well-observed cases. I don't think a twister would go
unnoticed in the US and you can get to and around them
to a better degree. Higher density of active storm
spotters also. I designate "active" as distinct from
"passive" for obvious reasons.
Not to mention the severe lack of aus-wx subscribers from
Bangladesh and India also! That dry-line formed by
continental air coming down from Tibet over the world's
tallest mountain range. Cripes! you can see it each day
now in the satpic generations that I do. Events in
Bangladesh often go unreported until scores or hundreds
of people get killed and that's if someone official can
get into the area to count the ones that havn't been
washed away:-(
And then there's Africa. I am still at a loss to explain
why five (5) waterspouts formed over lake Malawi in April,
1991 that I've captured on 15 secs of video. I showed this
at Sunday's (9 May) ASWA meeting in Sydney. ASWA colleagues
couldn't understand how calm I was and probably why there
was so little video. I can answer them now - Limited video
tape & battery (1 week between battery charges:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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006
From: Bodie_27 at postmaster.co.uk
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 02:38:54 +0100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SSU Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey, is their anyone online at the moment that would be able to email the
SSU free brisbane 512km radar URL to the list?? It's in my bookmarks at
home, and i can't seem to find through the BOM website or search engines..
It's 11:45 now, and i should be online until 1pm, using the net only for
Subject related material, of course :)
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007
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 11:55:27 +1000
From: Ross Portas [rportas at mindless.com]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.51 [en] (Win98; I)
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: SSU Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
http://ssu1.bom.gov.au/private/sample469.pl
there you go ben :-)
Bodie_27 at postmaster.co.uk wrote:
> Hey, is their anyone online at the moment that would be able to email the
> SSU free brisbane 512km radar URL to the list?? It's in my bookmarks at
> home, and i can't seem to find through the BOM website or search engines..
> It's 11:45 now, and i should be online until 1pm, using the net only for
> Subject related material, of course :)
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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008
X-Sender: cmaunder at mail.dynamite.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.0
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 11:51:29 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: GASP is back...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Are these URLs constant? Might be worth writing a quick prog
to auto download and build an animated gif.
Chris
At 11:16 10/05/99 , Michael wrote:
>As I run an automagic archiver, I point it at;
>
>http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.0.gif
>http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.1.gif
>http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.2.gif
>http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.3.gif
>http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.4.gif
>http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.5.gif
>http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.6.gif
>http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/mslp.7.gif
>
>for each of the larger gif images. From there, I generate an
>automatic animation which is rather coarse. I map every hour
>would be nicer:-)
Chris Maunder (Canberra)
http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
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009
From: Bodie_27 at postmaster.co.uk
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 03:16:04 +0100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SSU Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Rosco, thanks a tonne for that :)
Hmmm... stare at radar for the next hour........maths assignment..... stare
at radar for the next hour.......maths assignment....... stare at radar for
next hour....... stare at radar :)
And this is only the beginning, if it's like this now then i'm really
looking forward to the action the models are predicting overnight/early
tomorrow!
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010
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: GASP is back...
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 13:48:09 +1000 (EST)
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>
> http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/medr/graphics/gasp/ is back on-line with
> fresh updates out to May 13 predicting that ECL intensifying to 962mb
> between Tas & NZ with some pretty chilly air coming north by the end
> of next week. We'll see:-)
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
The most recent run has a different system well to the south of
Tasmania by late in the week with some very cold air on its rear
flank, although it is suggesting that Tasmania will be the only place
to really get hit - sub-528 thicknesses over the entire state and
sub-524 over the southern half. Sub-524 is snow-to-sea-level territory,
if and when it happens.
Other progs (e.g. the EC) are not quite as dramatic on the cold air
but still have something there. All are also suggesting some fun for
NZ late in the week with NW gales ahead of the system, and probably
some pretty warm temperatures on the lee side of the islands.
Blair Trewin
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011
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - Tornadoes in Perth??
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 15:14:33 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Hi Ira....,
Tch tch... You don't seriously call those cold watery things that come onshore "Tornadoes" do you??
p.s. I lived and kept observations in Perth for 13 years, but hey, I really admire your tenacity!
>snip
Well eheheheh hum,
I certainley hope you are'nt all forgetting wonderfull WA, the tornado
capital of Australia ( most people on the list were probably wondering when
this mail would come!!!! hehehheeh) Just thought I'd remind you all that WA
has had approximately 150 Tornadoes since 1955. Of the 150 tornadoes
recorded Perth and its surrounding area down to Mandurah accounts for 55 or
one third of the states records. We know that Perth doesn't take up one
third of the state's land mass. So obviously with the large population
density in Perth tornadoes damage does'nt go unnoticed. Studies in the US
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012
From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 15:41:04 +1000
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BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Flood Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRELIMINARY FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL RIVERS AND STREAMS BETWEEN THE
SUNSHINE
COAST AND THE GOLD COAST
Issued at 3:22pm on Monday the 10th of May 1999
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.
Heavy rainfall has been recorded in the Maroochy River catchment in the last
24
hours with totals including Nambour 118mm, Yandina 116mm and Palmwoods
101mm.
Further heavy rainfall with totals between 100mm and 200 mm is forecast for
the
Maroochy and Sunshine Coast streams overnight.
Stream rises to minor flood level are occurring in the headwaters of the
Maroochy River and further rainfall overnight may cause further flooding.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to extend overnight from the Sunshine
Coast to the Gold Coast causing stream rises and local flooding.
Motorists are warned not to attempt to drive through floodwater on roads.
The next warning will be issued at about 7pm Monday
------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
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013
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 15:56:07 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
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wish there was some action here...only received a few drops so far. Heavy
rain being experinced on North Coast around Bellingen and further North (so
my contact says...).
Have been watching this systme on Weather 21 - the satpic showed excellent
spiral rotation and the storm activity around Longreach last night was
decent as well. Just wish it would slip this way.................. I love a
decent rain event.
PS Mark Hardy if you are reading this...good job this morning!
Paul at Port yet again.....
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014
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE QLD low
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 15:54:05 +1000
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Hi Anthony & others..
Well we are starting to get some action - plenty of moderate rain now over
a large area. I noticed brief rash of lightning over the Southern end of
Fraser Island on the lightning tracker an hour or so ago. All quiet now,
except for the sound of liquid sunshine on the roof.
John W.
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015
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 16:01:20 +1000 (EST)
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>
>
>
> wish there was some action here...only received a few drops so far. Heavy
> rain being experinced on North Coast around Bellingen and further North (so
> my contact says...).
>
Interestingly, there is a Potential Flood Alert in effect for the
Bellinger, Orara and lower Hunter, but not for rivers further north
in NSW. Presumably this is a function of the heavy rain in April?
Blair Trewin
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016
From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Boreen Point, Sunhine Coast obs
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 16:03:02 +1000
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Hi all, especially Blair!
So far this year, Boreen Point in the Qld Sunshine Coast has consistently
featured on the highest 24hr rainfall figures this year. During February
I'm guessing they would have scored near to 1000mm. In the 24hours to 9am
today they received another 88mm and I'd say their figures to 9am tomorrow
would be much higher.
Would you (or anyone) know of their rainfall for 1999 so far?
Thanks
------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
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017
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 16:12:14 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
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Yeah Blair and the fact that we have had constant rain now for some period
(although not major falls but enough to keep the ground soaking wet). The
Bellinger & Orara areas had reasonable rains just the other day (totals in
the 30mm zone). The upper hunter has had some decent heavy rains associated
with storm activity connected to the fronts that have been slipping
through. As I said in previous emails the Manning has been running fresh
for some period now as well as almost all of the major systems on the North
Coast. If this rain bearing low moves South like it is forecast we could
see a major flood potential for the whole North Coastal areas.
Ps - I have been thinking lately whether TC's can be classified into Low
Precip & High Precip - the TC's that hit the WA areas dumped falls in the
100mm ranges while TC Thelma dumped falls between 700 - 800mm for the
corresponding periods?
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018
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 16:25:54 +1000 (EST)
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>
>
>
> Yeah Blair and the fact that we have had constant rain now for some period
> (although not major falls but enough to keep the ground soaking wet). The
> Bellinger & Orara areas had reasonable rains just the other day (totals in
> the 30mm zone). The upper hunter has had some decent heavy rains associated
> with storm activity connected to the fronts that have been slipping
> through. As I said in previous emails the Manning has been running fresh
> for some period now as well as almost all of the major systems on the North
> Coast. If this rain bearing low moves South like it is forecast we could
> see a major flood potential for the whole North Coastal areas.
Agreed - I'm a bit surprised that the Manning (for example) didn't
score a mention, though.
> Ps - I have been thinking lately whether TC's can be classified into Low
> Precip & High Precip - the TC's that hit the WA areas dumped falls in the
> 100mm ranges while TC Thelma dumped falls between 700 - 800mm for the
> corresponding periods?
I think speed of forward movement of the cyclone was a major factor
here. The peak rainfall rates at Learmonth during Vance were actually
higher than those at Darwin during Thelma (125mm in 3 hours at
Learmonth; 59mm in 3 hours at Darwin), but significant rain (>2mm/hr)
lasted for only 9 hours at Learmonth, as compared with 48 hours at
Darwin.
While it wasn't a factor in either Vance or Thelma, topography can
also greatly enhance rainfall totals in cyclones (or any other
situation).
Blair Trewin
>
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Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 04:27:20 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: aus-wx: RE:Tornadoes in Perth?? John Woodbridge i hope your joking!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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well,
I certainley hope your letter was a joke casue if it wasnt you must have
had your eyes shut while you lived here. Maybe your observations were
looking out the kitchen window :) or maybe your eyes are just painted on.
I have a map with a spot marked on it for every tornado recorded in WA, i
can only find about 10 that were land bourne water spouts, so thats less
than 1.5% of all tornadoes here. Also how do explain the hundreds of
tornadoes recorded hundreds of kays inland. Plus how do you explain for the
one that left a track 500m, wide for 80ks through a jarrah forest in
Dwellingup, or the 3 F-3's on the same day that had tracks of over 50'ks
each that occured halfway to Kalgoolie in 1995? or the tens of Famers that
live hours from the ocean that i have spoken to that have seen tornadoes,
or the 7 we had in one day last June that were all well inland, over 200k's
actually. These were all winter events. Also one of those "cold watery
things" that came onshore in Mandurah picked up cars and threw them several
blocks, totaly destroyed 16 homes down to their foundations plus damaged
over 60 other homes, sucked tyres out of a tyre store and dumped them 20'ks
away. I could go on all night and also mention Chuck Doswell who came here
in 96 to do research on those cold watery things, (just in case you dont
know who doswell is hes one of the top experts on severe weather in the
world) and i could mention what he said about em but hey! you lived here
for 13 years and must have chased all over the state like i have and seen
tornadoes at Dowerin and Toodyay like i have, so who am I to say we dont
have em, you must know!!!!!!!
Ira Fehlberg
Ps: when you can explain all the above mentioned Tornadoes ill send another
eamil and mention about 100 more, then when you can explain them, ill send
you the other 50
At 15:14 10/05/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Ira....,
>
>Tch tch... You don't seriously call those cold watery things that come
onshore "Tornadoes" do you??
>
>p.s. I lived and kept observations in Perth for 13 years, but hey, I
really admire your tenacity!
>
>>snip
>Well eheheheh hum,
> I certainley hope you are'nt all forgetting wonderfull WA, the tornado
>capital of Australia ( most people on the list were probably wondering when
>this mail would come!!!! hehehheeh) Just thought I'd remind you all that WA
>has had approximately 150 Tornadoes since 1955. Of the 150 tornadoes
>recorded Perth and its surrounding area down to Mandurah accounts for 55 or
>one third of the states records. We know that Perth doesn't take up one
>third of the state's land mass. So obviously with the large population
>density in Perth tornadoes damage does'nt go unnoticed. Studies in the US
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>
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From: "The Weather Co." [twc at theweather.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 18:53:25 +1000
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Paul
Thanks for your loyal viewership (is there such a word?). I think your
wishes will be answered with the rain expected to affect the Midnorth coast
by tomorrow morning.
Cheers, Mark
-----Original Message-----
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au [Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Monday, 10 May 1999 16:11
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy S Qld rain -> prelim flood warnings
|
|
|wish there was some action here...only received a few drops so far. Heavy
|rain being experinced on North Coast around Bellingen and further North (so
|my contact says...).
|
|Have been watching this systme on Weather 21 - the satpic showed excellent
|spiral rotation and the storm activity around Longreach last night was
|decent as well. Just wish it would slip this way.................. I love a
|decent rain event.
|
|PS Mark Hardy if you are reading this...good job this morning!
|
|Paul at Port yet again.....
|
|
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Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 04:59:04 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Yep I agree, In all honesty i dont really think that WA has the most
cause really i dont know, (i was just stirring) i think that there are
several places in Australia that would have very similar numbers of
tornadoes. Like "alleys" that get good numbers. I think one day we will
discover that the place with the most naders is actually some out of the
way spot that we dont even really know of now. The SW of WA records the
most probably only due to the population mix with what is a good area for
tornadoes. I was talking with Anthony Cornelius the other night about SE
QLD and N NSW, even conservative figures of the number of supercells and
thus the number of tornadoes suggests that this is a area with very high
numbers that obviously dont get seen due to the sparse population. It is
also mine and Anthonys opinion that SA has large areas like this plus the
goldfields in WA get 10 times more storms than my area but records hardly
any naders at all. Surley we must be only just scratching the surface here
in Aus. With the formation of ASWA i think in the next 5-10 years we will
find that the figures will quadruple in Aus. Here in WA the figures trebled
when they actually started to look for evidence of them! As more interested
people get out into the better areas i think we will all surprise ourselves
and I say, bring it on!!!!!
Ira Fehlberg
At 11:44 10/05/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Ira Fehlberg wrote:
>>
>> Well eheheheh hum...
>
>I really love these statistics comparing exercises! Great
>reading aussie-weather people! I think I could be nasty
>in saying that "there are statistics and damned statistics".
>That's an attempt to prevent this thread turning into a
>comparison exercise. I'd like to see a national database
>containing such info and ditto for other countries. That's
>a serious proposal.
>
>Our US colleagues take the cake when it comes to those
>well-observed cases. I don't think a twister would go
>unnoticed in the US and you can get to and around them
>to a better degree. Higher density of active storm
>spotters also. I designate "active" as distinct from
>"passive" for obvious reasons.
>
>Not to mention the severe lack of aus-wx subscribers from
>Bangladesh and India also! That dry-line formed by
>continental air coming down from Tibet over the world's
>tallest mountain range. Cripes! you can see it each day
>now in the satpic generations that I do. Events in
>Bangladesh often go unreported until scores or hundreds
>of people get killed and that's if someone official can
>get into the area to count the ones that havn't been
>washed away:-(
>
>And then there's Africa. I am still at a loss to explain
>why five (5) waterspouts formed over lake Malawi in April,
>1991 that I've captured on 15 secs of video. I showed this
>at Sunday's (9 May) ASWA meeting in Sydney. ASWA colleagues
>couldn't understand how calm I was and probably why there
>was so little video. I can answer them now - Limited video
>tape & battery (1 week between battery charges:-)
>
>Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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>
>
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Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 19:02:04 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I think you're right, Anthony although the latest GASPs out to Sunday
have no mention of the rain depression that was on them yesterday..!
Perhaps the long distance maps have some visible resemblance to fractal
geometry and chaos theory .
The bottom line is that we look like getting the first major westerly
burst of the season.
(Good riddance to my hopes for a wet spell..!)
I would have thought that the Australian models would be more reliable
than overseas ones in trying to predict Australia's weather....
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> Hi Keith,
>
> I can't say that I hold a very high opinion of GASP at all - especially
> on the longer range situations. Certainly, it tends to be somewhat
> 'extreme' at times, and reminds me of MRF, it's not too bad for the
> first 72hrs, but after that it starts telling you fictional stories....
>
> This is just my personal opinion of GASP as a model, that's all - I'd be
> going with NGP, especially since EC is doing what NGP is doing.
>
> However, you have to remember, that the models are just a computer
> generated forecast, and especially at 7 days out, can do many strange
> and wonderful things! Don't you love chaos? :)
>
> Anthony
>
> Keith Barnett wrote:
> >
> > Further to this, why does the US Tropical southwest pacific forecast for
> > the same day show a high over NSW? The GASP one was issued 23UTC on 8th
> > May, the US one (FNMOC)0933UTC on the 9th.They can't both be right....if
> > I'm losing my marbles would someone please politely inform me...
> >
> > Keith Barnett wrote:
> > >
> > > Has anyone looked at the GASP prognosis for next Saturday 15th which
> > > shows
> > > a surface low forming over inland NSW..hopefully some heavy rain?
> > >
> > > Michael Thompson wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Quite a difference in the MRF and NGP models. Whilst both have SE Queensland
> > > > getting a soaking, the MRF then continues the rain down along the NSW coast
> > > > over Wed - Thur, even Sydney and the Illawarra, with the low heading down
> > > > close to coast. NGP extends a bigger area of rain across into the Darling
> > > > Downs initially, but then takes the low quickly SE across the Tasman to dump
> > > > on NZ, with NGP the rainfall never gets much south of say Coffs Harbour.
> > > >
> > > > I have my hopes on MRF, but if I had to put money on it I certainly would
> > > > not putting too much.
> > > >
> > > > Michael Thompson
> > > > http://thunder.simplenet.com
> > > >
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> > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 17:08:37 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - Tornadoes in Perth??
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
At 03:14 10/05/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Ira....,
>
>Tch tch... You don't seriously call those cold watery things that come
onshore "Tornadoes" do you??
>
>p.s. I lived and kept observations in Perth for 13 years, but hey, I
really admire your tenacity!
>
hmmmm, watery things? just ask the people of Mandurah (just south of Perth)
about all their tornadoes they've had in recent times, I've seen all the
newspaper clippins Ira has of them going back to the 1960's, most of them
has pics which show a trail of enourmous damage on some of the pictures.
Jacob
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024
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 09:30:19 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ira Fehlberg wrote:
> YAs more interested
> people get out into the better areas i think we will all surprise ourselves
> and I say, bring it on!!!!!
>
>
Wouldn't that be an interesting thought, Australia having more tornadoes per
unit area than the US or the UK....
As for India, Bangladesh and China - we can only wait and see....
Keep up the good work, everyone! (:
Les
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025
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Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 05:27:33 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - Tornadoes in
Perth??
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Tell me if this looks like a funny watery thing,
http://members.xoom.com/wastorms/northam.html
btw Northam is 150k's from the coast in the wheatbelt,
Ira Fehlberg
At 15:14 10/05/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Ira....,
>
>Tch tch... You don't seriously call those cold watery things that come
onshore "Tornadoes" do you??
>
>p.s. I lived and kept observations in Perth for 13 years, but hey, I
really admire your tenacity!
>
>>snip
>Well eheheheh hum,
> I certainley hope you are'nt all forgetting wonderfull WA, the tornado
>capital of Australia ( most people on the list were probably wondering when
>this mail would come!!!! hehehheeh) Just thought I'd remind you all that WA
>has had approximately 150 Tornadoes since 1955. Of the 150 tornadoes
>recorded Perth and its surrounding area down to Mandurah accounts for 55 or
>one third of the states records. We know that Perth doesn't take up one
>third of the state's land mass. So obviously with the large population
>density in Perth tornadoes damage does'nt go unnoticed. Studies in the US
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>
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026
From: Dane Newman [dpn at bigpond.com]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Tornado and Storm URL
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 21:41:51 +1000
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Here is a US url with some interesting links to recent Oaklahoma tornadoes and other storms. Dane
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Storm News and Archives.url"
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the Sunshine State" - Sunday Mail QLD
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 17:33:24 +1000
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I agree with all you say, and must admit supercell tornadoes is what I was
thinking. I still think the mid west USA has a large lead, however everyone
but us does as you rightfully say underestimate the Australian situation.
I do believe the next decade will see the Australian chasers catching a few,
and no doubt one or two will be F3 or better. I wish that I had the
resources that are available now, when I was your age ( mid 1970's ), in
those days you only chased when you saw a local storm. Back then even the
BOM did not have much understanding on supercell storms and their
relationship to shear and jetstream. No Li models or anything remotely like
that. That's why I have no doubt that we will score some tornadoes in the
next few years.
Michael
>
> I guess it comes down to what the definition of a 'true' tornado is,
> certainly if it's supercellular tornadoes, then I think your comparison
> is quite right. However, I personally believe that NE NSW, and SE QLD
> are certainly a good hot spot area for tornadoes, especially slightly
> inland of the coast (where temperature and moisture are at its maximum
> potential). There are many thunderstorms that appear very strong on
> radar, and also last for a relatively long time frame, however the
> population density here is so low, that an entire thunderstorm could go
> through an area, and only knock down a few trees, and maybe the odd shed
> - where as in metropolitan Brisbane - the same storm would cause
> millions of dollars worth of damage.
>
> While at a 'meeting' wtih Jeff C on Wednesday, I asked about the '73
> tornado - CAPE at 9am was 3127, SRH was around 500. Which is certainly
> very significant!!! I asked him when another event like this could
> happen, and he said "it has probably already happened, just not right
> here." For more general interest, he was also telling me how Chuck
> Doswell actually commented on how surprised he was to observe such high
> CAPE's in SE QLD - this mainly due to the very high amounts of moisture
> we are fortunate (unfortunate?) enough to have here.
>
> There are certainly other little hot spots in Australia, SW WA is
> certainly no stranger to tornadoes (as Ira so commonly reminds us in
> #Weather ). And certainly, much of the eastern coast is quite
> suceptable (spelling!) to tornadoes.
>
> I believe that I've mentioned this before, but I would DIE to storm
> chase in central to southern QLD during an upper level low. Especially
> with -8 and -9 LI's forecasted, and their high temperatures (high 30's,
> low 40's) and also - their DP's still get into the high teens, which
> again, is quite high. I think Charleville had 90km/h winds on one of
> these days...and they were lucky to only receive 90km/h! On another
> day, a town of Hebel(?) received winds estimated well in excess of
> 200km/h - a rain recorder for the BoM actually faxed in a diagram to the
> BoM of what he saw, and there were no prizes for guessing what it was he
> saw! Especially with the words like "dark
> funnel-like cloud rotating and touching the ground" I believe he also
> observed debris too...but again, don't quote me on that one!
>
> I'm quite sure there are other hotspots too (possibly in Vic) and I
> believe parts of SA are certainly no stranger to severe thunderstorms.
>
> Anthony Cornelius
>
> Michael Thompson wrote:
> >
> > I perhaps would not go that far, I think we are possibly on par with SE
> > USA - the Carolina's, Georgia, and those states just east of the
> > Mississippi.
> >
> > Although some hot spots such as NW plains and Darling Downs may push
that a
> > bit.
> >
> > Regards
> > Michael
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027
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 17:47:05 +1000
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You are right in the models changing so rapidly, and each one has a
different scenario, generally for 72hrs they are close but not this time.
NGP has now gone closer in line with yesterdays MRF bringing rainfall down
to around the Illawarra by Wednesday night. This is completely different to
the BOM forecast. It is a pity that a deeper low did not develop as it may
have made for some interesting weather, even way further north where the dry
SW winds on the north side of the low eventually met the tropical air.
Michael
> I've been looking at this situation with interest for a long time, and
> as I feared, the models certainly turned away from the 'bombing' of the
> low off us, however they still have it intensifying somewhat. The upper
> level system in this is amazing...the 700mb VV's are forecasted to be
> -80 during Tuesday!!! That's to our ESE (where our winds will be coming
> from) and while AVN has been all over the place, it's starting to
> stabilize a little now, and on Tuesday 00z is saying our VV's over us
> will be around -40 to -45 (overall average of all forecasts).
> Certainly, no shortage of moisture over us, 80%+ RH up to 500mb. I do
> not know what our vorticities will be (except from MRF) as I cannot
> access the AVN raw data site as it's down, the same for LI's, and I also
> rely on one of the variables it gives, to do CAPE extrapolations.
>
> AVN has a cold pool of air sitting just to the W of us, and quite a
> tight isothermal gradient over us is expected...if that cold pool of air
> were to move E, near the low - and mix with those incredible VV's, I
> think we'd be seeing some major damage here...but that's a rather
> unlikely situation.
>
> Certainly...Monday pm to Tuesday should be very interesting, with some
> flash flooding possible (IMO) and depending on this low, some gales?
>
> Wednesday is also proving to be possibly interesting, with the low
> sitting over us, but directing NE winds over us...with -10 VV's, and if
> the cloud clears, we could be seeing some thunderies. However - with
> this entire situation, the models have had a horrible grip on it,
> changing with every model run, and I have to say that anything could
> really happen...any thoughts?
>
> Anthony from Brisbane
>
> Michael Thompson wrote:
> >
> > Quite a difference in the MRF and NGP models. Whilst both have SE
Queensland
> > getting a soaking, the MRF then continues the rain down along the NSW
coast
> > over Wed - Thur, even Sydney and the Illawarra, with the low heading
down
> > close to coast. NGP extends a bigger area of rain across into the
Darling
> > Downs initially, but then takes the low quickly SE across the Tasman to
dump
> > on NZ, with NGP the rainfall never gets much south of say Coffs Harbour.
> >
> > I have my hopes on MRF, but if I had to put money on it I certainly
would
> > not putting too much.
> >
> > Michael Thompson
> > http://thunder.simplenet.com
> >
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028
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - Tornadoes in Perth??
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 23:23:45 +1000
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That's just one of those cold watery things sucking up yellow / brown algae.
I hope that John was only fishing for a bite Ira, because there is no doubt
WA's tornado occurrence.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, 10 May 1999 7:27
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - Tornadoes in Perth??
> Tell me if this looks like a funny watery thing,
>
> http://members.xoom.com/wastorms/northam.html
>
> btw Northam is 150k's from the coast in the wheatbelt,
> Ira Fehlberg
>
>
> At 15:14 10/05/99 +1000, you wrote:
> >Hi Ira....,
> >
> >Tch tch... You don't seriously call those cold watery things that come
> onshore "Tornadoes" do you??
> >
> >p.s. I lived and kept observations in Perth for 13 years, but hey, I
> really admire your tenacity!
> >
> >>snip
> >Well eheheheh hum,
> > I certainley hope you are'nt all forgetting wonderfull WA, the tornado
> >capital of Australia ( most people on the list were probably wondering
when
> >this mail would come!!!! hehehheeh) Just thought I'd remind you all that
WA
> >has had approximately 150 Tornadoes since 1955. Of the 150 tornadoes
> >recorded Perth and its surrounding area down to Mandurah accounts for 55
or
> >one third of the states records. We know that Perth doesn't take up one
> >third of the state's land mass. So obviously with the large population
> >density in Perth tornadoes damage does'nt go unnoticed. Studies in the US
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
>
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029
From: "John Graham" [gorzzz at one.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re:aus-wx:Qld/NSW Depression
Date: Mon, 10 May 1999 23:38:16 +1000
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Hi Everyone,
When's the rain gunna start?????....I shouldn't open my big mouth yet, but
we've had only 1.4mm of rain today(10/5)
I bet now that I've typed this, it's going to piss down now & Lismore will
have a flood.........BTW, it's been a few years since they've had a major
flood............hmmmmm
See Ya's
John
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| Document: 990510.htm
Updated: 12 May 1999 |
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