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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Saturday, 19 June 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Hector...
002 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au] Canberra-wx
003 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] ASWA membership - yes please
004 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] eastern states upper system
005 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Vorticity Advection
006 Matt Smith[disarm at braenet.com.au] canberra
007 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au] canberra
008 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] 17th June 1999 Radar loop
009 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Storm Warning Signs in Central West
010 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] eastern states upper system
011 Sam Barricklow [k5kj at pulse.net] June 4, 1999 Nebraska Tornadoes
012 Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au] cold gold coast
013 Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au] Oragraphic lift or Orographic storms?
014 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] cold gold coast
015 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] Vorticity Advection
016 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] cold gold coast
017 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Vantage Points Database - Update 34.37
018 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] eastern states upper system
019 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] canberra
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001
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 1999 15:13:48 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hector...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Paul Graham wrote:
> Hi Les,
> I think you meant the Tiwi islands (just north of Darwin) rather
> than Fiji when you were talking about Hector..
> - Paul.
That's it - stumbled across a URL on it quite by accident -
Les
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002
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Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 08:32:03 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Canberra-wx
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yes - only for the small boats. The larger cruise liners and
sea-cats should be fine :P
At 17:48 18/06/99 , you wrote:
>John
>
>Its Serious. Its for boats on Lake Burely Griffen.
>
>Kevin Burrows
>
>At 16:46 18/06/1999 +1000, you wrote:
>>Tickled my sense of humour...
>>
>>The BoM currently has a Small Boat Alert for Canberra.
>>
>>John.
Chris Maunder (Canberra)
http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
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003
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 08:41:41 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA membership - yes please
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Les and all,
I'm putting this message towards the list as there are other
international people on this list who may be interested in joining ASWA.
International membership will cost: (all prices in $AUD)
$30 annually without radar (per person) or
$40 annually with radar (per person)
Both include full subscription to Storm News.
Unfortunately, there are no husband/wife subscription fees...
Michael Scollay will contact you with information on how to deposit the
money in the near future.
The membership form is at:
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/meminfo/application.doc
I hope you guys enjoy being the first international members for ASWA :-)
Regards,
Anthony Cornelius
QLD ASWA Co-ordinator
Les Crossan wrote:
>
> > It'll only affect postage costs. I'll have the $$ on Mon June
> > 21 after I've visited the bank and the post office.
>
> OK - fine!
>
> > Watch out Les:-) Many Brits end up finding that earnings v/s
> > cost-of-living-lifestyle matters in Oz are much better off
> > than in the UK. I worked out the logistics of this two years
> > back and reasoned that to maintain our standard of living
> > that we have in Oz in the UK needed 2.5x salary in AUD value.
> > Take the AUD, add 20-30% and call it UK-Pounds.
>
> and you get severe storms as well I thought Oz was really tight on pommies
> immigrating to Australia now??
>
> >
> > payment in UK-Pound to a Westpac Branch in the UK (I know
> > of two at least, one in Maidenhead and another in central
> > London)
>
> Both in the south of England.... good idea!!
>
> Les
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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004
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 09:30:13 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: eastern states upper system
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
>Ben Quinn wrote:
> Although it's a LONG way out on the models, i have my eye on an upper
> level system MRF and EC have for the eastern states early/mid next
> week.. BOM have also picked this up.. right now i'd give anything to get
> rid of these SW'rs!!
MRF has some extremely cold air coming through SE QLD, at 0Z Wednesday,
we're at at -25C at 500mb. Almost too cold to be true for us.
Unfortunately, it also moves the vorticity + jetstream off the coast
very quickly :( It looks like the best stuff is going to pass through
before enough moisture advection can take place at the suface. There is
one possibility, and yes, there is a very slim chance at the moment of
the possibility of storms, however looking at forecast Skew-T's, while
we do have an LFC, it's only small. The air is still going to be very
dry at the surface.
At the moment...what I'm thinking/hoping is the NW stream will be able
to supply enough midlevel moisture for clouds + precip on late
Tuesday/early Wednesday to give us some thundery showers during
Wednesday. I'm not expecting much precip (if any) on these days - what
I think is looking the best is the trough/weak low some models are
predicting off the coast, that will give us a nice steady, SE stream.
This, combined with the cold air that will still be present over us
(-20C at 500mb on Thursday 0Z, which is still very cold for us) should
make things somewhat interesting late in the week...
I'd be happier if I could see NGP vorticity though!!!
Anthony from Brisbane
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005
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 10:23:33 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Vorticity Advection
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Laurier, everyone..
I have since deleted this email i am replying to, and i didn't have the
time to reply at the time.. but i noticed the subject of vorticity
advection came up.. I have been trying to find out some info on the web
this morning, but so far i am not having much luck.. would you be able
to give us a rundown on exactly what voticity advection is Laurier?
Obviously it is the movement of vorticity from one area to another,
hence the advection part.. but i am just not crystal clear on the
process involved, and how to apply this to my forecasts..
Thanks in advance
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> >Ben Quinn wrote:
> > Although it's a LONG way out on the models, i have my eye on an upper
> > level system MRF and EC have for the eastern states early/mid next
> > week.. BOM have also picked this up.. right now i'd give anything to get
> > rid of these SW'rs!!
>
> MRF has some extremely cold air coming through SE QLD, at 0Z Wednesday,
> we're at at -25C at 500mb. Almost too cold to be true for us.
> Unfortunately, it also moves the vorticity + jetstream off the coast
> very quickly :( It looks like the best stuff is going to pass through
> before enough moisture advection can take place at the suface. There is
> one possibility, and yes, there is a very slim chance at the moment of
> the possibility of storms, however looking at forecast Skew-T's, while
> we do have an LFC, it's only small. The air is still going to be very
> dry at the surface.
>
> At the moment...what I'm thinking/hoping is the NW stream will be able
> to supply enough midlevel moisture for clouds + precip on late
> Tuesday/early Wednesday to give us some thundery showers during
> Wednesday. I'm not expecting much precip (if any) on these days - what
> I think is looking the best is the trough/weak low some models are
> predicting off the coast, that will give us a nice steady, SE stream.
> This, combined with the cold air that will still be present over us
> (-20C at 500mb on Thursday 0Z, which is still very cold for us) should
> make things somewhat interesting late in the week...
>
> I'd be happier if I could see NGP vorticity though!!!
>
> Anthony from Brisbane
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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006
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Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 13:35:40 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith[disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: canberra
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Everyone
This is mainly for NSW/Canberra people.
I am planning to go away for my 20th birthday in 2 weekends time if things
work out.. what i am planning to do with a mate is:
My grandparents own a caravan at Ulludulla and i could stay there for 2
nights, i was just curious how long it might take to drive from there to
Canberra/wherever the snow is :), and can it be done in a day trip (there
and back)
Thanks in advance!
Matt Smith
BTW there were a few nice storms way off the coast of sydney today, but
thanks to the shocking traffic i couldnt make it to the beaches.. the
furthest i got was 3km from my house (and an hour or so in the car :( so i
gave up
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007
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Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 14:04:39 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: canberra
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ulladulla to Canberra is 2-2.5 hrs, and Canberra to the snowies
is another 2.5 hrs. However, if it's snow that you're after, then
Canberra to knee deep snow in the Brindebellas is 45mins :)
The road is wet, muddy and icy so have chains and/or 4WD - and
don't forget to take along a tarp or some XC skis :)
cheers,
Chris
At 13:35 19/06/99 , you wrote:
>Hi Everyone
>This is mainly for NSW/Canberra people.
>
>I am planning to go away for my 20th birthday in 2 weekends time if things
>work out.. what i am planning to do with a mate is:
>
>My grandparents own a caravan at Ulludulla and i could stay there for 2
>nights, i was just curious how long it might take to drive from there to
>Canberra/wherever the snow is :), and can it be done in a day trip (there
>and back)
>
>Thanks in advance!
>
>Matt Smith
>
>BTW there were a few nice storms way off the coast of sydney today, but
>thanks to the shocking traffic i couldnt make it to the beaches.. the
>furthest i got was 3km from my house (and an hour or so in the car :( so i
>gave up
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
Chris Maunder (Canberra)
http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
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008
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Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 13:37:23 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: 17th June 1999 Radar loop
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
I have made a radar loop of the storm that possibly caused a tornado to
form in the southern suburbs of Adelaide. The URL is:
http://www.nemas.net/bsch/recentevents/adelaideloop.gif
I had a look at the damage this morning and can say it doesn't look like
any wind gust would have caused the localised damage. I also spoke to the
Severe Weather guy here in Adelaide BoM and he also said it was caused by a
low rating tornado, he came to this conclussion from inspecting the damge
path that was left behind...
Andrew Wall (VK5NAJ)
15 Elio Drv,
Paralowie 5108,
South Australia.
ph. (08) 82854590
S.A. / N.T. Co-ordinator for the ASWA Inc.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S.A. Lightning Page - http://lightning.virtualave.net (I know it needs
updating)
ASWA Inc. Webpage - http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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009
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 1999 16:30:54 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Warning Signs in Central West
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
great description Michael,
I can vouch for this spot being very icy. On our roughly weekly visit to
Macdonalds it can be quite icy at night and very icy in morning.
Lindsay P.
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> Blair Trewin wrote on Thu, 17 Jun 1999 12:18:46 +1000 (EST):
> >
> > > In answer to David Croan's question from 11th May, about the
> > > rumour regarding warning signs. No we didn't see one. We
> > > looked as far as Narromine and all around Dubbo, Wellington
> > > and Burrendong Dam. The only sign we saw was one??? snow
> > > sign and those intriguing signs at the Lithgow end of the
> > > Hartley Valley about flashing road markers, which flash when
> > > ice forms. Does anyone know how they work and what powers
> > > them. Had us puzzled.
> >
> >
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010
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: eastern states upper system
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 14:40:56 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>
> Hi all,
>
> >Ben Quinn wrote:
> > Although it's a LONG way out on the models, i have my eye on an upper
> > level system MRF and EC have for the eastern states early/mid next
> > week.. BOM have also picked this up.. right now i'd give anything to get
> > rid of these SW'rs!!
>
> MRF has some extremely cold air coming through SE QLD, at 0Z Wednesday,
> we're at at -25C at 500mb. Almost too cold to be true for us.
> Unfortunately, it also moves the vorticity + jetstream off the coast
> very quickly :( It looks like the best stuff is going to pass through
> before enough moisture advection can take place at the suface. There is
> one possibility, and yes, there is a very slim chance at the moment of
> the possibility of storms, however looking at forecast Skew-T's, while
> we do have an LFC, it's only small. The air is still going to be very
> dry at the surface.
>
> At the moment...what I'm thinking/hoping is the NW stream will be able
> to supply enough midlevel moisture for clouds + precip on late
> Tuesday/early Wednesday to give us some thundery showers during
> Wednesday. I'm not expecting much precip (if any) on these days - what
> I think is looking the best is the trough/weak low some models are
> predicting off the coast, that will give us a nice steady, SE stream.
> This, combined with the cold air that will still be present over us
> (-20C at 500mb on Thursday 0Z, which is still very cold for us) should
> make things somewhat interesting late in the week...
>
> I'd be happier if I could see NGP vorticity though!!!
>
> Anthony from Brisbane
The latest ECMWF run has a 984 (that's not a typo) low just off
Brisbane on Friday night. I'll believe it when I see it...(certainly
there won't be too much left of the Gold Coast's beaches if it
materialises...).
Blair Trewin
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011
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 00:22:27 -0500
From: Sam Barricklow [k5kj at pulse.net]
Organization: The Storm Shop http://www.thestormshop.com/
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
wx-chase-can List Member
Subject: aus-wx: June 4, 1999 Nebraska Tornadoes
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Images from the June 4, 1999 Mullen and Thedford, Nebraska tornado
event are now posted at:
http://www.k5kj.net/990604.htm
Text will be added soon.
Sam Barricklow
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012
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 16:22:06 +1100
From: Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 2.02 (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: cold gold coast
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey all. Deano here. Is this unusual cold weather up at Queesnland and
NSW caused by the 140 knot jetstream over you guys? According to a few
in the Melbourne Bureau, they believe it is the direct result of this
particular jetstream. Any ideas?
Deano
steve baynham wrote:
>
> hey,
> at 12:30 am today 6.0C
> at 2:30 am 2.5C
> and expected coldest time is later sometime isn't it?
> at about 4 or 5 am?
> steve
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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013
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 16:24:24 +1100
From: Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Oragraphic lift or Orographic storms?
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Ira Fehlberg wrote:
>
> I said on IRC last night that there was a few setups that formed storms,
> these are, storms formed in troughs (summer), convergence lines ( ahead of
> a low), frontal storms (along the front) and storms in the cold pool of air
> behind the front. Someone else said that there was alos orographice storms.
> I said this was incorrect as the word "orographic" describes the lifting
> mechanism not the storm and this would occur inside on of the above
> mentioned systems. I was cut apart by Anthony Cornelius, Ben Quinn and Matt
> Smith who insisted that i was wrong. I cleary stated that storms do form by
> orographic lifting ( i have the conversation logged) but that the orograph
> part is the lifting mechanism, not the storm. Maybe im wrong. Can some one
> please tell me if this is so? I would welcome any comments to help clear
> this up for me.
>
> Ira Fehlberg
Hey Ira. How's it doing? Concerning your "dispute" if you will with
Anthony, Ben and Matt, about the existance of orographic lifting and
storms, from my knowledge, a storm being "born" from the strong
orographic lifting is not referred to as an "Orographic Storm". I could
also be wrong as well though. As far as I know, the term "orographic
lifting" does mean the lifting mechanism formed when an air mass
encounters a mountain range.
Deano
>
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014
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 16:58:10 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: cold gold coast
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Hi Deano,
When our SW'ers first came through, the jetstream over us now was
practically non existent. I have heard many theories on how the
jetstream controls the surface wx (and in my opinion, it plays quite a
few roles) However, the jetstream over us now is the "sub-tropical
jetstream" I believe...and not the "true jetstream" .
One thing that could be possible, is that the resulting fine weather,
allows the sub-tropical jetstream to take it's place again. However,
I'm not 100% sure on this...
Interesting concept though Dean!
Anthony Cornelius
Dean S wrote:
>
> Hey all. Deano here. Is this unusual cold weather up at Queesnland and
> NSW caused by the 140 knot jetstream over you guys? According to a few
> in the Melbourne Bureau, they believe it is the direct result of this
> particular jetstream. Any ideas?
>
> Deano
>
> steve baynham wrote:
> >
> > hey,
> > at 12:30 am today 6.0C
> > at 2:30 am 2.5C
> > and expected coldest time is later sometime isn't it?
> > at about 4 or 5 am?
> > steve
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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015
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 17:06:02 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vorticity Advection
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Ben and all,
I'm not sure on this process either, however, while on my way home from
my exam today, I had a thought about it...
Vorticity comes from a stronger jet overshooting a slower jet...this
helps "spin" the air. The stronger the difference, the greater the
vorticity. However - I've noticed myself, times where there has been a
strong jet, and not much vorticity happens, or a lot of vorticity and
not much jet! My thought to this was, maybe vorticity is developed in
other areas, (and takes a long time to develop) over an area of
stationary strong jet (this happened for our May 1 storms, where the
same NW jet sat over us constantly, and vorticity strength increased a
little each day - and then moved with the jetstream) I was thinking,
that once an area of fairly strong vorticity is developed, it only needs
the jet to move, and it will move too - be it a weak jet or a strong jet
(although the vorticity will weaken after a while). I guess it comes
into one of Newton's laws...that once an object is in motion (spinning)
it is much easier to keep it in motion (keep it spinning) then to start
it in motion (spinning).
I'm not sure though...these were just my food for thoughts!
Mmm...food!
Anthony Cornelius
Ben Quinn wrote:
>
> Hey Laurier, everyone..
>
> I have since deleted this email i am replying to, and i didn't have the
> time to reply at the time.. but i noticed the subject of vorticity
> advection came up.. I have been trying to find out some info on the web
> this morning, but so far i am not having much luck.. would you be able
> to give us a rundown on exactly what voticity advection is Laurier?
>
> Obviously it is the movement of vorticity from one area to another,
> hence the advection part.. but i am just not crystal clear on the
> process involved, and how to apply this to my forecasts..
>
> Thanks in advance
>
> Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > >Ben Quinn wrote:
> > > Although it's a LONG way out on the models, i have my eye on an upper
> > > level system MRF and EC have for the eastern states early/mid next
> > > week.. BOM have also picked this up.. right now i'd give anything to get
> > > rid of these SW'rs!!
> >
> > MRF has some extremely cold air coming through SE QLD, at 0Z Wednesday,
> > we're at at -25C at 500mb. Almost too cold to be true for us.
> > Unfortunately, it also moves the vorticity + jetstream off the coast
> > very quickly :( It looks like the best stuff is going to pass through
> > before enough moisture advection can take place at the suface. There is
> > one possibility, and yes, there is a very slim chance at the moment of
> > the possibility of storms, however looking at forecast Skew-T's, while
> > we do have an LFC, it's only small. The air is still going to be very
> > dry at the surface.
> >
> > At the moment...what I'm thinking/hoping is the NW stream will be able
> > to supply enough midlevel moisture for clouds + precip on late
> > Tuesday/early Wednesday to give us some thundery showers during
> > Wednesday. I'm not expecting much precip (if any) on these days - what
> > I think is looking the best is the trough/weak low some models are
> > predicting off the coast, that will give us a nice steady, SE stream.
> > This, combined with the cold air that will still be present over us
> > (-20C at 500mb on Thursday 0Z, which is still very cold for us) should
> > make things somewhat interesting late in the week...
> >
> > I'd be happier if I could see NGP vorticity though!!!
> >
> > Anthony from Brisbane
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: cold gold coast
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 17:26:13 +1000 (EST)
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On the subject of the (alleged) cold in SE Queensland this week,
I noticed that Brisbane Airport had 8 consecutive days below 20 (a
run which was broken today).
This is the first such run since 10-22 July 1989. There have been a
total of five runs of more than 8 days below 20 (the 13 days of 1989
being the longest), and six more of 8. Only two of these eleven
(17-26 June 1949 and 15-23 June 1952) have ended in June (the others
have all ended in July).
Blair Trewin
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Vantage Points Database - Update 34.37
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 18:03:38 +1000
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Melbourne
Yarra Bend Road, Kew (north of the Eastern Freeway)
Melways - Map 44, K1
Nice bend in the road with lane parking for up to 4 cars. Unobstructed view
from 350deg to 190deg from some height - city skyline in the centre.
Con: ice cream van parks in the middle of it in summer and on weekends!!
Glen Waverley
Gallaghers Road (next to Mount View Primary School)
Melways Map 71,F3
Lane parking. Unobstructed view from 15deg to 150deg. Mt Dandenong in
centre of panorama (sorry, I'm really getting into this )
Chris Gribben tells me his verandah is a good vantage point, also Andrew
McDonald's roof
Jane ONeill
Bayswater, Melbourne
============================================================
Jane ONeill Bayswater Melbourne cadence at rubix.net.au
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
============================================================
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018
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 19:28:30 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: eastern states upper system
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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As for the moist NW stream,keep an eye on tropical disturbances in the
Indian Ocean southwest of Sumatra about long.90.
Hopefully this will be a source of further cloud as it has been for the
current thin band over WA.
(The Sydney forecast has showers and freshening southeasterlies in the
latter half of next week but as usual we will have to wait and see.)
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> >Ben Quinn wrote:
> > Although it's a LONG way out on the models, i have my eye on an upper
> > level system MRF and EC have for the eastern states early/mid next
> > week.. BOM have also picked this up.. right now i'd give anything to get
> > rid of these SW'rs!!
>
> MRF has some extremely cold air coming through SE QLD, at 0Z Wednesday,
> we're at at -25C at 500mb. Almost too cold to be true for us.
> Unfortunately, it also moves the vorticity + jetstream off the coast
> very quickly :( It looks like the best stuff is going to pass through
> before enough moisture advection can take place at the suface. There is
> one possibility, and yes, there is a very slim chance at the moment of
> the possibility of storms, however looking at forecast Skew-T's, while
> we do have an LFC, it's only small. The air is still going to be very
> dry at the surface.
>
> At the moment...what I'm thinking/hoping is the NW stream will be able
> to supply enough midlevel moisture for clouds + precip on late
> Tuesday/early Wednesday to give us some thundery showers during
> Wednesday. I'm not expecting much precip (if any) on these days - what
> I think is looking the best is the trough/weak low some models are
> predicting off the coast, that will give us a nice steady, SE stream.
> This, combined with the cold air that will still be present over us
> (-20C at 500mb on Thursday 0Z, which is still very cold for us) should
> make things somewhat interesting late in the week...
>
> I'd be happier if I could see NGP vorticity though!!!
>
> Anthony from Brisbane
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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019
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: canberra
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 19:43:18 +1000
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There are no very high mountains near Ulladulla, even Pigeon House is only
600-700m. Your best bet if there are low level falls, and I mean low level
down to 600-700m ) is Braidwood, that would mean a trip to almost Batemans
Bay, then up Clyde Mountain where snow has fallen. South from Braidwood
there some minor roads to places like Captains Flat, some peaks around here
touch over 1000m, but finding road access to the higher ground may be
tricky. Invest in a good topographic map. Bear in mind that falls east of
Canberra rely on cold S/SW winds that are almost parallel to the coast. You
could also venture down to Nimmitabel and Bombala, both get odd snowfalls,
but these are getting well away from a easy daytrip. As far as time goes
Braidwood is probably 90 mins from Ulladulla, Canberra another 90 mins
perhaps.
Michael
> I am planning to go away for my 20th birthday in 2 weekends time if things
> work out.. what i am planning to do with a mate is:
>
> My grandparents own a caravan at Ulludulla and i could stay there for 2
> nights, i was just curious how long it might take to drive from there to
> Canberra/wherever the snow is :), and can it be done in a day trip (there
> and back)
>
> Thanks in advance!
>
> Matt Smith
>
> BTW there were a few nice storms way off the coast of sydney today, but
> thanks to the shocking traffic i couldnt make it to the beaches.. the
> furthest i got was 3km from my house (and an hour or so in the car :( so i
> gave up
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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| Document: 990619.htm
Updated: 27 June 1999 |
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