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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 26 August 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] More storms in Adelaide (2nd night in a row)
002 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Nice Mildura Radar
003 Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au] Fremantle F0 Tornado
004 "Nick Sykes" [njsykes at hotmail.com] Mildura radar is dodgy
005 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au] Mildura radar is dodgy
006 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu] More Mildura Radar
007 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Nice Mildura Radar
008 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] More...Adelaide...stuff (blocking highs)
009 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Fremantle F0 Tornado
010 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] More storms in Adelaide (2nd night in a row)
011 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Nice Mildura Radar
012 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Mildura Loops + SE QLD wx
013 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Sea Fogs
014 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Recent Mallee weather
015 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Another Question
016 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Recent Mallee weather
017 "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au] Mildura Loops + SE QLD wx
018 Ross Portas [rportas at mindless.com] Upcoming SEQ Weather
019 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] More Mallee weather...
020 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Bureau policies"
021 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Fremantle F0 Tornado
022 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Nice Mildura Radar
023 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Fremantle F0 Tornado
024 Paul Yole [vortex at wwdg.com] Fremantle Tornado
025 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] PCA charts
026 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Another Question
027 "L.J. & B. Smail" [gws at pipeline.com.au] Geelong Weather
028 Greg Spencer [hawk at iinet.net.au] PCA charts
029 "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au] Another Question
030 peter.corlett at doi.vic.gov.au PCA charts
031 steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au] avn loops
032 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Fremantle F0 Tornado
033 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Fremantle Tornado
034 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Another Question
035 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] More Mallee weather...
036 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Fremantle F0 Tornado
037 Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au] Fremantle F0 Tornado
038 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Another Question
039 Pjcorlett at aol.com Another Question
040 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Sea Fogs
041 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Another Question
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001
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
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Date: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 22:42:50 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: More storms in Adelaide (2nd night in a row)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi again ppls,
We have just had another storm here, Lightning all over the cloud, inside,
outside, ontop, below looked kewl. got a few shots aswell, will let you
know when there up. visable Lightning was around 1 per minute with sheet
lightning around 5 per minute, so hopefully I get some shots of the cloud
it'self. I also got a shot of the rear end of the cloud lit up with
lightning :)
Well I am off to bed,
cyas
Andrew Wall (VK5NAJ)
15 Elio Drv,
Paralowie 5108,
South Australia.
ph. (08) 82854590
S.A. / N.T. Co-ordinator for the ASWA Inc.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S.A. Lightning Page - http://lightning.virtualave.net (I know it needs
updating)
ASWA Inc. Webpage - http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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002
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nice Mildura Radar
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 13:18:00 GMT
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On Wed, 25 Aug 1999 18:25:55 +1000, Michael Scollay
wrote:
>Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>>
>> Damn it, either the Mildura Radar's cactus or I wish we had someone (me
>> would do!!) there! If what's showing is actually happening I would have
>> expected a warning or something for flash flooding to show up...
>
>Not just that area. There seems to be something major going on that's
>also bringing down microwave radio sites that is stuffing up the Telstra
>network:-( Outages all over the place.
>
>My archive reports outages of radar inclusive 0520Z to 0610Z and again
>at 0750Z.
>
>Last image of 0740Z shows a very sus multicell complex with large
>areas of +100m/hr due E of Mildura. At 0800Z this reduced a little
>to patches of +100mm/hr and large areas of 40-100mm/hr. I wouldn't
>be surprised if this turns out to be a supercell supporting naders
>as it's beginning to track more independently of the environmental
>winds and taking on that classic hooked shape. Any real obs yet?
>
Around 13.00EST Mildura radar showed a major rainband sweeping across
Ouyen, south of Mildura, yet that station only recorded 3mm 9 to 3,
with past rain reported. Observations just don't match up with the
images -- the only thunderstorm reported in Vic at 3 or 6pm was at
Wilsons Prom at 3. The max rain 9 to 3 was 7mm at Portland, and the
only sign of any real activity was a heavy showers report, also from
Portland. Whilst the area of greatest activity on the radar coincides
with a definite lack of weather stations, I'm beginning to agree with
the idea that the radar is overestimating precip.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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003
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 00:12:50 +1100
From: Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fremantle F0 Tornado
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Hey, Deano here. I have been watching the news concerning the so-called
"mini-cyclone" then "mini-tornado". They first gave the report of a
mini-cyclone, to which there is no such thing. Then they said it was a
mini-tornado , which I assume is a small tornado of F0 to F1 category as
mentioned. Thanx Mark. Well, this is just another classical muckup in
the public awarness of tornadoes in Australia. Most people still think
that they do NOT occur here. Not putting down people, just saying that
people should realize that the threat of tornadoes in Australia which
can cause damage, as the Fremantle tornado just displayed, is very real.
It would be satisfying and awarding for us interested in severe
storms/weather phenomena, to be able to educate the public of the
varients in climatic conditions.
Deano
Mark Dwyer wrote:
>
> Well yo have most properly heard about the mini tornado this morning
> that hit Fremantle first, Then went on to hit parts of Palmyra and then
> dissipated in Melville.
> It's path was about 6-7 Km long, the nader was about 50m wide, along
> that path it touched down at least several times also. Winds were
> reported ~ at 180 km/h at its peak. It reportedly touched down several
> times along the path of this storm.
> IT has been confirmed as a tornado by the BoM at 6 PM (WST), Ira has
> been down an assessed the damage path from this weather event this
> evening. An apartment block in East st East Fremantle was the worst hit
> by this F0 nader. Check out this url thanx to JungleJim for this, From
> the ABC network
> www.abc.net.au/news/state/wa/metwa-25aug1999-8.htm . Three people were
> hurt during this storm, one been an old lady that was trapped form
> falling debris. From when the roof was lifted of the apartment block,
> were she lived.
>
> P.S. does any one have radar loops of this storm this morning From about
> 5:30 - 7:00 am WST.
>
> We will post any further news that comes to hand when we get any more on
> it .
>
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004
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From: "Nick Sykes" [njsykes at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Mildura radar is dodgy
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 01:27:16 PDT
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Hi all
I just rang the BOM and they said the Mildura radar is over estimating for
some reason. Do not trust it.
Could see some action in Vic tomorrow as a front approaches and a upper
level system develops.
Got to 21 here today, first 20+ day this season
Nick
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005
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 01:37:54 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mildura radar is dodgy
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Hey Nick,
About the Mildura Radar i would say from the work experience
that i did with the BoM a few weeks ago that the radar has got some "minor"
problems with it. I can't be totally correct about this but i think there is a
calibration error on the Mildura radar at the moment that is causing the radar
to over estimate some what. So as far as the radar is atm it thinks it is
raining harder than it actually is, hence i think the radar has become to
sensitive for it to be any were near actuate enough for the BoM's purposes.
Only time is going to tell what technical glitch is causing this problem to
keep arising. Only the BoM's technical officers are going to be able to solve
this Problem atm, if they haven't already found it and are waiting for parts
to replace the faulty part/parts that could be causing it to over estimate.
But it could also be a software problem, well lets just hope they get it fix
promptly then.
Nick Sykes wrote:
> Hi all
>
> I just rang the BOM and they said the Mildura radar is over estimating for
> some reason. Do not trust it.
>
> Could see some action in Vic tomorrow as a front approaches and a upper
> level system develops.
>
> Got to 21 here today, first 20+ day this season
>
> Nick
>
> ______________________________________________________
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006
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More Mildura Radar
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 18:42:24 +0000 (GMT)
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Ready for more deliberations on the Mildura radar?
Looking at the image just now reminded me of the
"clear-air" mode of some other radars - the
radar sensitivity for reflectivity just goes up
by a factor of 5-10 or so. With some luck you could
then still extract info from the Mildura image by
re-scaling its reflectivity (rainfall?? - does anyone know
how the algorithm converts reflectivity to rain?) values
using adjacent radars. On the other, I probably have
no clue and you shouldn't have read as far as you already
have.
Cheers, Harald
--
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
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007
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 07:34:12 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nice Mildura Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>I'm beginning to agree with
>the idea that the radar is overestimating precip.
>
>--
>Laurier Williams
>Australian Weather Links and News
If the air is warm and dry, could there be substantial evaporation losses
between what's coming out of the cloud and what's actually hitting the
ground??
(this seems half baked to me, but there you go, I just said it...)
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
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008
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Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 07:31:03 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More...Adelaide...stuff (blocking highs)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
On the subject of the warm and dry conditions around here. Can anybody
tell me just how unusual this persistant blocking high situation really is?
I can remember many times when a blocking high lasted a fortnight, but in
Adelaide we have had only one decent frontal passage in the last two months
as a result of this persistant Tasman Sea monster. Any ideas??
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
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009
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Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 07:37:54 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fremantle F0 Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>It would be satisfying and awarding for us interested in severe
>storms/weather phenomena, to be able to educate the public of the
>varients in climatic conditions.
>
Yes, me again!
It has just occurred to me, that in this age of 'televisual truth' and
'infotainment', that what we need to do as an organisation is make sure we
get some wicked video footage of an F4 wedge on the ground somewhere in oz.
THAT would break the ice with these media bunnys on the mini-tonado
conundrum....
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
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010
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Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 07:27:51 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More storms in Adelaide (2nd night in a row)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>Hi again ppls,
>We have just had another storm here, Lightning all over the cloud, inside,
>outside, ontop, below looked kewl. got a few shots aswell, will let you
>know when there up. visable Lightning was around 1 per minute with sheet
>lightning around 5 per minute, so hopefully I get some shots of the cloud
>it'self. I also got a shot of the rear end of the cloud lit up with
>lightning :)
>Well I am off to bed,
>cyas
>
>Andrew Wall (VK5NAJ)
>15 Elio Drv,
>Paralowie 5108,
>South Australia.
Ahh Andrew, the advantages of living about 30kms north of my position. Not
a peep of a storm in the last 2 nights at St Peters, and an absolutely
insignificant amount of rain to boot. This august is turning out to be not
only warm but dry....
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
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011
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 22:48:33 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nice Mildura Radar
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Phil Bagust wrote:
> If the air is warm and dry, could there be substantial evaporation losses
> between what's coming out of the cloud and what's actually hitting the
> ground??
Huh??? If the air's warm and DRY surely there wouldn't be any precipitation
for radar to measure!!!
BTW severe weather in my part of the UK started 2000z till 2200z MCS,
torrential rain and lightning at 2 / min... more footage for November.... no
funnels or tornadoes reported!!!
Les
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012
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 08:54:45 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Mildura Loops + SE QLD wx
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
I have uploaded a couple of loops from the Mildura radar yesterday
afternoon/evening to the web for those that didn't see it.. quite
impressive.. BTW, Sat pics never matched up with the intensity shown on
radar.. and this radar has been playing up quite a bit lately..
Local Loop
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/vic-radar/milduraloop-local.gif
Broad Loop
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/vic-radar/milduraloop.gif
On a slightly different note.. we actually had some nice showers/weak
storms around SE QLD yesterday.. I ended up taking a whole roll of
pictures! There was some really nice congestus on the ranges during the
early afternoon, and there was actually red on radar SW of Brisbane late
in the afternoon! (Ok, it was one pixel or red.. but it's still red :) )
I also photographed a Coastal shower that moved over Redcliffe late in
the afternoon that had base features like a weak summer storm! It was a
strange but nice day..
I have my eye on the system that will effect SE Australia over the next
few days.. some models are doing some interesting things for southern
QLD..
Harald Richter wrote:
>
> Ready for more deliberations on the Mildura radar?
>
> Looking at the image just now reminded me of the
> "clear-air" mode of some other radars - the
> radar sensitivity for reflectivity just goes up
> by a factor of 5-10 or so. With some luck you could
> then still extract info from the Mildura image by
> re-scaling its reflectivity (rainfall?? - does anyone know
> how the algorithm converts reflectivity to rain?) values
> using adjacent radars. On the other, I probably have
> no clue and you shouldn't have read as far as you already
> have.
>
> Cheers, Harald
>
> --
> ------------------------------------------------------
> Harald Richter
> Postdoctoral Research Associate
> Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
> State University of New York at Albany
> 1400 Washington Avenue
> Albany, NY 12222
> phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
> spatz at atmos.albany.edu
> http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
> ------------------------------------------------------
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013
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 09:14:19 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Sea Fogs
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Howdy all.
Absolutely beaut weather here today & yesterday with clear conditions causing
dense sea fogs to roll in and clear about 8am.
Temps will be around 22c today with a deep blue clear sky. Hopefully the change
will cause some pre-frontal storms instead of dying out and just leaving days of
middle level cloud lazing around.
Ps: Does anyone know when the "official" build-up season for the Monsoonal
weather for Darwin starts?
Paul at Port Macquarie.
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014
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.19]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Recent Mallee weather
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 09:21:06 EST
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Hi every1,
The discussion over the Mildura radar has prompted a quick report on recent
weather from Wycheproof!
Yesterday was mild (about 19 C) but dark clouds ominously formed about
mid-morning and eventually dropped between 6 and 9 mm. of rain in the
Wycheproof region. No thunder, although some nice congestus was visible when
the odd cloud break occurred. By mid-afternoon the skies to the north were
much darker (towards Mildura and Ouyen) but little precipitation occurred
here.
Overnight we recorded some more heavy showers and just now (9.20 a.m.) the
skies are getting much darker to the NW and I spied a number of burgeoning
cumulus to the west before the cloud set in again. The latest satpic looks
promising for more rain today (from the NW) and i wouldn't be at all
surprised if the Mildura radar isn't showing something already!
Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
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015
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 10:06:55 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Another Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Today Show Weatherman Monty Dwyer often refers to "Gulf Lines" -
What are they exactly?
Paul at Port Macquarie
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016
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Recent Mallee weather
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 10:04:15 +1000 (EST)
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> Overnight we recorded some more heavy showers and just now (9.20 a.m.) the
> skies are getting much darker to the NW and I spied a number of burgeoning
> cumulus to the west before the cloud set in again. The latest satpic looks
> promising for more rain today (from the NW) and i wouldn't be at all
> surprised if the Mildura radar isn't showing something already!
The Mildura radar is going ballistic - but given previous posts I
don't take it all that seriously. They were reporting a thunderstorm
at 0900, and have reported 3mm in the hour since.
Shepparton and Redesdale have both got 10mm in the last hour.
Redesdale AWS is one worth watching in a humid northerly - it's on
the northward-facing slopes of the Great Dividing Range north of
Melbourne.
Blair
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017
From: "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mildura Loops + SE QLD wx
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 09:49:15 +1000
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Still wild out there off radar
******************************************
Grant Boyden
GB Commentary Productions
The First And Last Words In Commentary
http://www.gbmotorsport.com
http://marina.fortunecity.com/seafarer/460/index.html
******************************************
----------
> From: Ben Quinn
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Mildura Loops + SE QLD wx
> Date: Thursday, 26 August 1999 8:54
>
> Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
>
> I have uploaded a couple of loops from the Mildura radar yesterday
> afternoon/evening to the web for those that didn't see it.. quite
> impressive.. BTW, Sat pics never matched up with the intensity shown on
> radar.. and this radar has been playing up quite a bit lately..
>
> Local Loop
> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/vic-radar/milduraloop-local.gif
>
> Broad Loop
> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/vic-radar/milduraloop.gif
>
>
> On a slightly different note.. we actually had some nice showers/weak
> storms around SE QLD yesterday.. I ended up taking a whole roll of
> pictures! There was some really nice congestus on the ranges during the
> early afternoon, and there was actually red on radar SW of Brisbane late
> in the afternoon! (Ok, it was one pixel or red.. but it's still red :) )
>
> I also photographed a Coastal shower that moved over Redcliffe late in
> the afternoon that had base features like a weak summer storm! It was a
> strange but nice day..
>
> I have my eye on the system that will effect SE Australia over the next
> few days.. some models are doing some interesting things for southern
> QLD..
>
>
>
>
> Harald Richter wrote:
> >
> > Ready for more deliberations on the Mildura radar?
> >
> > Looking at the image just now reminded me of the
> > "clear-air" mode of some other radars - the
> > radar sensitivity for reflectivity just goes up
> > by a factor of 5-10 or so. With some luck you could
> > then still extract info from the Mildura image by
> > re-scaling its reflectivity (rainfall?? - does anyone know
> > how the algorithm converts reflectivity to rain?) values
> > using adjacent radars. On the other, I probably have
> > no clue and you shouldn't have read as far as you already
> > have.
> >
> > Cheers, Harald
> >
> > --
> > ------------------------------------------------------
> > Harald Richter
> > Postdoctoral Research Associate
> > Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
> > State University of New York at Albany
> > 1400 Washington Avenue
> > Albany, NY 12222
> > phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
> > spatz at atmos.albany.edu
> > http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
> > ------------------------------------------------------
> >
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> > message.
> >
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018
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 11:27:37 +1000
From: Ross Portas [rportas at mindless.com]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Upcoming SEQ Weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Well, AVN really does have some interesting weather happening for us
over the next few days. For those who haven't yet looked:
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/data/ready/usr/64805.arlplot.gif
MRF also looks promising, but has most of the action a little further to
the west. As does the EC model
http://covis.atmos.uiuc.edu/covis/visualizer/images/fcst1a15050.gif
Well here's hoping for an interesting Sunday.
Cheers,
Rosco.
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019
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.19]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: More Mallee weather...
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 11:33:33 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi again,
At the moment here in Wycheproof we have moderate to heavy rain but it was
much more interesting about 11 a.m. While in class a student asked me why
the low-level scud was coming from the east while the mid-level cloud was
coming from the NW!!!! Nice shear at least at lower levels!
Still dark to the north and NW...bring it on!! Any further reports from
mildura?
Cheers,
Kevin from the 'radar hole' of Victoria...:((
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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020
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 11:42:31 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Comments on Models - was "Re: aus-wx: Bureau policies"
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Anthony Cornelius wrote on Wed, 25 Aug 1999 21:47:06 +1000:
>
> Hi Michael and all,
>
> > See some other mail that I've sent about this issue...particularly
> > the one with a copy of a reply from the chief of NCEP Global Modelling
> > Branch. As I said in the previous mail, I apply corrections to the AVN
> > and MRF model data, specifically;
>
> Michael - are you talking about analysis data, or forecast data?
> Originally I thought that you were talking about analysis data. If it
> is analysis, I was/am under the impression that AVN only gets 6hr'ly
> datasets, if this is the case, then one would envisage that this would
> have an adverse effect on the min's/max's recorded by AVN.
Most if not all models are "initialised" with the "analysis" input data.
For each forecast run thereafter, it is my understanding that the process
is iterative i.e. analysis generates first forecast, first forecast
generates second forecast and so on. Thus, for my "forecast", I use all
data for selected variables from "analysis" to the end of model run.
For AVN, this is currently +72hrs and for MRF +288hrs. However, as
discussed previously, NCEP advised me that the underlying MRF model
assumptions went to a lower resolution from +180hrs that had an effect
on the underlying topographic assumption. Fortunately, my program took
this into account since both the surface height and pressure altered
and all it did was alter the lapse rate / radiation effects accordingly.
Both MRF and AVN are initialised at 00Z, then only AVN is initialised
at 6 hourly intervals until the next 00Z run. While I can't specifically
comment on the quality of the input data for each of these runs, it is
my understanding from discussions with NCEP that the 00Z initialisation
will contain the most complete input analysis dataset.
I've done some quantitative analysis of this "minimum anomaly" with the
12Z and 18Z AVN runs primarily, since they are the ones usually valid
at the time I run the scripts. Unfortunately, I do not have enough
quantitative evidence to demostrate any anomaly trend between the 12Z
and 18Z run. One would expect the anomaly to increase as you have
stated above but I cannot prove or disprove that hypothesis.
However, my point remains that regardless of any anomaly that I might
detect, there is a consistent "minimum positive temperature anomaly"
over the entire AVN model run (and MRF to a greater degree) that I
can't explain. I am now hypothesising that Australian obs timing might
have something to do with this.
To remove this hypothesis from discussion, it would be necessary for
all obs in Australia to synchronise with all those "other obs" feeding
these models.
I suppose that there are two obs issues here;
1) The preservation of historical records for climatology reasons.
2) Provide global obs data to feed global synoptic/climate models.
Maybe all existing and new AWS's should be devoted to 2) and manual
posts to 1) as I think Blair has suggested. Some manual posts could
be involved with 2) if resourced appropriately. Also, the proper
filtering and checking of all obs data is a "must do".
> The other thing is, although you are applying corrections etc. to
> the data, are these exact? It could be possible that our great
> friend 'chaos' is effecting some of the results you are getting,
> by both AVN and corrections you use, even just by generalising the
> topography, could possibily have a significant effect on the outcomes
> you are receiving.
Agreed. But I would have expected the anomaly to affect max/min
"analysis" and "forecast" temps equally. This is just not so as
maximums, particularly for "analysis" end up within +/- 0.5C and
"forecasts" within +/- 1C. Minimums are consistently greater than
+1C out and often by as much as +6C. I look at only Thredbo AWS and
Cabramurra AWS obs to exclude "frost hollow" effects associated
with Thredbo, Perisher Valley and Charlottes Pass.
> The other possible explanation would be, that due to the dispersal
> and isolation of AWS's/obs/data recording etc - that to try and get
> a temperature at one section would be rather dodgy. As all the model
> can do is look at the data is received around it, and extrapolate
> from it...
One thing I cannot comment on is how "extrapolation" is done. Again,
it is my understanding that obs readings are used to check the model.
In an overly simplistic description of the algorithm used; given a
grid/model applied as an initial state (analysis), do they agree with
obs? If not, adjust grid/model until they do. It's the same iterative
algorithm applied at the analysis state that is used to generate
forecasts. Remember, it is not just surface obs feeding these models,
NOAA satellites provide the far greater portion of input data.
In my comments to NCEP's Global Modelling Branch Chief, I gave a clear
example of what I was commenting about. At that stage, I did not suspect
that obs data from Australia played a significant role. Instead, I
proposed that the anomaly was due to a more fundamental reason such as
outward radiation flux assumptions. Simply put, I thought that neither
AVN or MRF assumed that any snow was on the ground within the gridded
point of the model I was examining or it miscalculated the outward
radiation flux due to snow cover. The area involved is comparitively
small in relation to the model grid applied. Given this, I was still
confused why maximums didn't suffer also. Why should the model be OK
in the day but wrong at night? So I resolved to iterate my own local
corrections and have applied these to some success. I also offered
the candid observation in my comments to NCEP that an "increase in
model resolution" will go some way toward improving the forecast
precision outcome but also to improve "the fundamental models, types
and coupling models associated with the landform, topography,
vegetation, oceans etc." I felt that atmospheric models were relatively
mature in comparison to fully coupled models that are only at early
stages. Fundamnentally, improved forecasts lay in a merging of needed
disciplines and a refining of specific areas needing the most work.
I now believe that the quality of obs data being input to the models
is of equal importance. The old metaphor applies; "garbage in, garbage
out". We may know how to build a truck, but if you put garbage in, it
becomes a garbage truck...
Now I'd love to compare these AVN/MRF results to equivalent BoM model
data (LAPS, GASP). Presumably, obs data going into BoM models from BoM
obs sites has been better filtered...
Any raw BoM model data feeds possible Blair / Laurier?
,-_|\ Michael Scollay
/ASWA \ mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
\_,^._* Treasurer, ASWA Inc.
v http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
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021
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 11:52:42 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fremantle F0 Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Mark Dwyer wrote:
>
> P.S. does any one have radar loops of this storm this morning From about
> 5:30 - 7:00 am WST.
For ASWA members, I keep an archive. Please spec UTC zulu times.
,-_|\ Michael Scollay
/ASWA \ mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
\_,^._* Treasurer, ASWA Inc.
v http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
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022
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 07:18:22 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nice Mildura Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I lived in Mildura in the eighties and I can't remember a decent storm
in the time (3 years) I was there. Just seeing any rain was exciting,
still it was in the grip of a decent drought i think.
Lindsay P.
Laurier Williams wrote:
>
> On Wed, 25 Aug 1999 18:25:55 +1000, Michael Scollay
> wrote:
>
> >Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> >>
> >> Damn it, either the Mildura Radar's cactus or I wish we had someone (me
> >> would do!!) there! If what's showing is actually happening I would have
> >> expected a warning or something for flash flooding to show up...
> >
> >Not just that area. There seems to be something major going on that's
> >also bringing down microwave radio sites that is stuffing up the Telstra
> >network:-( Outages all over the place.
> >
> >My archive reports outages of radar inclusive 0520Z to 0610Z and again
> >at 0750Z.
> >
> >Last image of 0740Z shows a very sus multicell complex with large
> >areas of +100m/hr due E of Mildura. At 0800Z this reduced a little
> >to patches of +100mm/hr and large areas of 40-100mm/hr. I wouldn't
> >be surprised if this turns out to be a supercell supporting naders
> >as it's beginning to track more independently of the environmental
> >winds and taking on that classic hooked shape. Any real obs yet?
> >
> Around 13.00EST Mildura radar showed a major rainband sweeping across
> Ouyen, south of Mildura, yet that station only recorded 3mm 9 to 3,
> with past rain reported. Observations just don't match up with the
> images -- the only thunderstorm reported in Vic at 3 or 6pm was at
> Wilsons Prom at 3. The max rain 9 to 3 was 7mm at Portland, and the
> only sign of any real activity was a heavy showers report, also from
> Portland. Whilst the area of greatest activity on the radar coincides
> with a definite lack of weather stations, I'm beginning to agree with
> the idea that the radar is overestimating precip.
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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023
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fremantle F0 Tornado
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 14:47:49 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Now here's an interesting thing...
I watched the ABC & Ch 10 news coverage of this event, which was
disappointingly brief and no doubt better covered in the 'West'. The
stories showed the apartment block which lost part of the roof from various
angles and the resulting mess certainly appears to be consistent with F0 or
F1 damage. However..., immediately surrounding the block of flats were a
number of trees, some quite large. On the video at least, these appeared
to be totally unscathed, with full leaf and no missing or broken branches.
How can this be??
Normally trees in F0 or F1 conditions would be demolished and left as
twisted broken stumps, or at lest bereft of most branches.
It will be interesting to read Ira's full report.
John.
>snip
Well yo have most properly heard about the mini tornado this morning
that hit Fremantle first, Then went on to hit parts of Palmyra and then
dissipated in Melville.
It's path was about 6-7 Km long, the nader was about 50m wide, along
that path it touched down at least several times also. Winds were
reported ~ at 180 km/h at its peak. It reportedly touched down several
times along the path of this storm.
IT has been confirmed as a tornado by the BoM at 6 PM (WST), Ira has
been down an assessed the damage path from this weather event this
evening. An apartment block in East st East Fremantle was the worst hit
by this F0 nader.
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024
From: Paul Yole [vortex at wwdg.com]
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 23:24:29 -0600
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Fremantle Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
They were saying on Weather21 on Austar this morning that it was a cold downburst, so who knows what it was.
Paul Yole
Australian Severe Weather Member
Homepage: http://greenfield.fortunecity.com/dreams/238/
Email: vortex at wwdg.com
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025
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: PCA charts
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 15:18:04 +1000
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Does anyone have a URL where I can find PCA (Planning Chart Australia)
charts online - the airservices.gov.au site doesn't seem to & I'm after one
for Victoria.....
Thanks
Jane ONeill
Bayswater
ASWA - Victoria
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026
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
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Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 15:24:22 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul
I could be very wrong here, but on the sat pics from time to time ive
noticed a line of cloud lining N-S moving west over the Gulf of
Carpentaria, Maybe that is it ?
Matt Smith
>
>
>Today Show Weatherman Monty Dwyer often refers to "Gulf Lines" -
>
>What are they exactly?
>
>Paul at Port Macquarie
>
>
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>
>
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027
X-Sender: gws at mail.pipeline.com.au
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Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 15:45:15 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "L.J. & B. Smail" [gws at pipeline.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Geelong Weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Dear All,
At last something to report: Thunderstorms passed overhead 1.20 pm to 2.20
pm, bringing 22 mm in half hour at Highton and maybe more - I haven't
received other reports yet. Reports of minor urban flash flooding. Totals
to 3.45 pm (still raining) between 16 and 30 mm. This brings our August
total up to scratch! (50 mm). Interesting that "Geelong AP AWS" (not in
Geelong at all) only recorded 2 mm to 3 pm. - Something funny somewhere!
Lindsay Smail
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028
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 14:06:40 +0800
From: Greg Spencer [hawk at iinet.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PCA charts
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Jane
Whats this?? you taking an interest in aviation too are ya :-)
I have a PCA chart and can get any info that you want from it. Let me
know what you are looking for. If you really want to buy one, goto your
local GA (general aviation) airport, I think its Moorabbin airport, and
there should be a shop there where you can purchase one, they cost about
$5 - $6 so they arent expensive. If you are online at the moment, jump
on ICQ and I can give you any other info you need
Regards
Greg Spencer
Jane ONeill wrote:
>
> Does anyone have a URL where I can find PCA (Planning Chart Australia)
> charts online - the airservices.gov.au site doesn't seem to & I'm after one
> for Victoria.....
>
> Thanks
> Jane ONeill
> Bayswater
> ASWA - Victoria
>
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029
From: "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Question
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 16:01:21 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1161
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Gulf lines are also called Morning Glory.
They are very interesting and usually arrive for a short time around the
change of season.
Some hangg liders have tried to surf these lines of clouds that are from
N-S in direction and are usually gone by 10am.
I think that's what you are talking about.
******************************************
Grant Boyden
GB Commentary Productions
The First And Last Words In Commentary
http://www.gbmotorsport.com
http://marina.fortunecity.com/seafarer/460/index.html
******************************************
----------
> From: Matt Smith
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Question
> Date: Thursday, 26 August 1999 15:24
>
> Hi Paul
>
> I could be very wrong here, but on the sat pics from time to time ive
> noticed a line of cloud lining N-S moving west over the Gulf of
> Carpentaria, Maybe that is it ?
>
> Matt Smith
>
> >
> >
> >Today Show Weatherman Monty Dwyer often refers to "Gulf Lines" -
> >
> >What are they exactly?
> >
> >Paul at Port Macquarie
> >
> >
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> >
> >
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030
From: peter.corlett at doi.vic.gov.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: DOI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 16:31:52 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PCA charts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Jane,
Airservices Australia have a publications centre in Carlton. Give
me a ring if I can pick something up for you..
Cheers,
Pete.
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031
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Date: Sun, 15 Aug 1999 17:10:35 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: avn loops
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey guys
well i am leaving to go tografton for the weekend, leaving tonight after work getting back sunday night. sounds like it could be an interesting weekend weather wise:) i damm well hope so!!! for the past two weeks almost i have been saving every image from avn adding to my loops. i got 500 temps, 250 jet, msl, sfcRH, 500 RH, sfc LFTX and hgt and vorticity. i reduced the size for quicker viewing. unfortunately had trubble uploading to my site so Greg Spencer has been kind enuff to upload them to his site.
the loops start from 00z sunday 15th til 18z wednesday 25th.
here they are :-
http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/hall/8714/temp/250winds.gif
http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/hall/8714/temp/500rh.gif
http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/hall/8714/temp/500hgt&v.gif
http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/hall/8714/temp/500temps.gif
http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/hall/8714/temp/1000msl.gif
http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/hall/8714/temp/1000lftx.gif
http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/hall/8714/temp/1000rh2m.gif
seeee yas!!!
steve from gold coast
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032
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Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 15:23:47 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fremantle F0 Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I would say more than likely the tornado hadn't touched down yet as it
smashed through the top floor of the apparment block, as this was the 1st
damage that occured along its 7km trail, or if the trees were as that high
they were probabaly either north or south of the building, in which case it
probabaly would have missed the tornado.
Jacob
At 02:47 26/08/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Now here's an interesting thing...
>
>I watched the ABC & Ch 10 news coverage of this event, which was
>disappointingly brief and no doubt better covered in the 'West'. The
>stories showed the apartment block which lost part of the roof from various
>angles and the resulting mess certainly appears to be consistent with F0 or
>F1 damage. However..., immediately surrounding the block of flats were a
>number of trees, some quite large. On the video at least, these appeared
>to be totally unscathed, with full leaf and no missing or broken branches.
> How can this be??
>
>Normally trees in F0 or F1 conditions would be demolished and left as
>twisted broken stumps, or at lest bereft of most branches.
>
>It will be interesting to read Ira's full report.
>
>John.
>
>>snip
>Well yo have most properly heard about the mini tornado this morning
>that hit Fremantle first, Then went on to hit parts of Palmyra and then
>dissipated in Melville.
>It's path was about 6-7 Km long, the nader was about 50m wide, along
>that path it touched down at least several times also. Winds were
>reported ~ at 180 km/h at its peak. It reportedly touched down several
>times along the path of this storm.
> IT has been confirmed as a tornado by the BoM at 6 PM (WST), Ira has
>been down an assessed the damage path from this weather event this
>evening. An apartment block in East st East Fremantle was the worst hit
>by this F0 nader.
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033
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Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 15:27:59 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fremantle Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
That's what they were saying on the media at first yesterday afternoon, but
I would say after the bom did some investigating they confirmed that it was
a tornado. Seven Nightly News in Perth was the first to confirm it at 6pm.
Interesting articles about the tornado in today's West Australian newspaper.
Jacob
At 11:24 25/08/99 -0600, you wrote:
>They were saying on Weather21 on Austar this morning that it was a cold
>downburst, so who knows what it was.
>
>Paul Yole
>Australian Severe Weather Member
>Homepage: http://greenfield.fortunecity.com/dreams/238/
>Email: vortex at wwdg.com
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034
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 17:27:59 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey Grant, Matt, Everyone..
>From memory gulf lines are what Matt Smith stated - Lines of
convection/storms aligned N/S in northern Australia.. They often move
from east to west in the Gulf of Carpentaria and the NT..
I can't be 100% sure but i think Gulf Lines and The Morning Glory are
two different things.. I just returned "The Australian Weather Book" to
the local library after they started jumping up and down because i had
it out for 4 months or something - It's a great book.. But if anyone has
this book both Gulf Lines and The Morning Glory (If the are two
different things) are explained very well in there..
I found a sat pic of a Morning Glory in the Gulf of Carpentaria as
well.. looks a bit different to the examples of Gulf Lines i've seen..
http://www.dropbears.com/brough/satpic.htm
Grant Boyden wrote:
>
> Gulf lines are also called Morning Glory.
>
> They are very interesting and usually arrive for a short time around the
> change of season.
>
> Some hangg liders have tried to surf these lines of clouds that are from
> N-S in direction and are usually gone by 10am.
>
> I think that's what you are talking about.
> ******************************************
> Grant Boyden
>
> GB Commentary Productions
> The First And Last Words In Commentary
> http://www.gbmotorsport.com
>
> http://marina.fortunecity.com/seafarer/460/index.html
> ******************************************
>
> ----------
> > From: Matt Smith
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Question
> > Date: Thursday, 26 August 1999 15:24
> >
> > Hi Paul
> >
> > I could be very wrong here, but on the sat pics from time to time ive
> > noticed a line of cloud lining N-S moving west over the Gulf of
> > Carpentaria, Maybe that is it ?
> >
> > Matt Smith
> >
> > >
> > >
> > >Today Show Weatherman Monty Dwyer often refers to "Gulf Lines" -
> > >
> > >What are they exactly?
> > >
> > >Paul at Port Macquarie
> > >
> > >
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> > > message.
> > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
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035
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 17:34:24 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More Mallee weather...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>>>While in class a student asked me why the low-level scud was coming
from the east while the mid-level cloud was coming from the NW!!!!
A possible future junior member for ASWA. How keen is this student Kevin??
Jimmy
At 11:33 26/08/99 -0500, you wrote:
>Hi again,
>
>At the moment here in Wycheproof we have moderate to heavy rain but it was
>much more interesting about 11 a.m. While in class a student asked me why
>the low-level scud was coming from the east while the mid-level cloud was
>coming from the NW!!!! Nice shear at least at lower levels!
>
>Still dark to the north and NW...bring it on!! Any further reports from
>mildura?
>
>Cheers,
>Kevin from the 'radar hole' of Victoria...:((
>
>
>______________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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036
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Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 17:37:23 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fremantle F0 Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I think if I recall, those units seemed to be a few stories above the trees
and therefore perhaps they were slightly protected. Just speculation but it
depends on which trees you were talking about.
Jimmy Deguara
At 14:47 26/08/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Now here's an interesting thing...
>
>I watched the ABC & Ch 10 news coverage of this event, which was
>disappointingly brief and no doubt better covered in the 'West'. The
>stories showed the apartment block which lost part of the roof from various
>angles and the resulting mess certainly appears to be consistent with F0 or
>F1 damage. However..., immediately surrounding the block of flats were a
>number of trees, some quite large. On the video at least, these appeared
>to be totally unscathed, with full leaf and no missing or broken branches.
> How can this be??
>
>Normally trees in F0 or F1 conditions would be demolished and left as
>twisted broken stumps, or at lest bereft of most branches.
>
>It will be interesting to read Ira's full report.
>
>John.
>
> >snip
>Well yo have most properly heard about the mini tornado this morning
>that hit Fremantle first, Then went on to hit parts of Palmyra and then
>dissipated in Melville.
>It's path was about 6-7 Km long, the nader was about 50m wide, along
>that path it touched down at least several times also. Winds were
>reported ~ at 180 km/h at its peak. It reportedly touched down several
>times along the path of this storm.
> IT has been confirmed as a tornado by the BoM at 6 PM (WST), Ira has
>been down an assessed the damage path from this weather event this
>evening. An apartment block in East st East Fremantle was the worst hit
>by this F0 nader.
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037
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 18:40:12 +1100
From: Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 2.02 (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fremantle F0 Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey all, Deano again. Although I have not yet had the chance to study
all of the availiable "evidence", from what I have heard, it sounds like
it was a downburst which was my first theory on the matter. Because
the tornado's 7 km path just started not far from the apartment
buildings, it is my belief that they have made the presumption that
the tornado MUST be responsible for the damage to the apartment
buildings. Yet, the trees immediately behind the apartments were
not touched! Sounds like a downburst to me???? Guess we will just have
to wait for the official report.
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> I think if I recall, those units seemed to be a few stories above the trees
> and therefore perhaps they were slightly protected. Just speculation but it
> depends on which trees you were talking about.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 14:47 26/08/99 +1000, you wrote:
> >Now here's an interesting thing...
> >
> >I watched the ABC & Ch 10 news coverage of this event, which was
> >disappointingly brief and no doubt better covered in the 'West'. The
> >stories showed the apartment block which lost part of the roof from various
> >angles and the resulting mess certainly appears to be consistent with F0 or
> >F1 damage. However..., immediately surrounding the block of flats were a
> >number of trees, some quite large. On the video at least, these appeared
> >to be totally unscathed, with full leaf and no missing or broken branches.
> > How can this be??
> >
> >Normally trees in F0 or F1 conditions would be demolished and left as
> >twisted broken stumps, or at lest bereft of most branches.
> >
> >It will be interesting to read Ira's full report.
> >
> >John.
> >
> > >snip
> >Well yo have most properly heard about the mini tornado this morning
> >that hit Fremantle first, Then went on to hit parts of Palmyra and then
> >dissipated in Melville.
> >It's path was about 6-7 Km long, the nader was about 50m wide, along
> >that path it touched down at least several times also. Winds were
> >reported ~ at 180 km/h at its peak. It reportedly touched down several
> >times along the path of this storm.
> > IT has been confirmed as a tornado by the BoM at 6 PM (WST), Ira has
> >been down an assessed the damage path from this weather event this
> >evening. An apartment block in East st East Fremantle was the worst hit
> >by this F0 nader.
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------>
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038
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 19:08:53 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Wouldn't be the morning glory would it?
Matt Smith wrote:
>
> Hi Paul
>
> I could be very wrong here, but on the sat pics from time to time ive
> noticed a line of cloud lining N-S moving west over the Gulf of
> Carpentaria, Maybe that is it ?
>
> Matt Smith
>
> >
> >
> >Today Show Weatherman Monty Dwyer often refers to "Gulf Lines" -
> >
> >What are they exactly?
> >
> >Paul at Port Macquarie
> >
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
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039
From: Pjcorlett at aol.com
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 07:46:34 EDT
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Question
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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G'day all,
"Gulf Lines" could refer to to things: the Morning Glory (which
I assume most people on the list know about), or the North Australian Cloud
Line. The latter is a meridional line of thunderstorms initated by sea-breeze
convergence over Cape York, which may propagate westwards for thousands of
kilometers.
Cheers,
Pete.
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040
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sea Fogs
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 18:00:12 +1000
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Varies from year to year but the first thunderstorms should getting into
gear during October.
Michael
>
> Ps: Does anyone know when the "official" build-up season for the Monsoonal
> weather for Darwin starts?
>
> Paul at Port Macquarie.
>
>
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>
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
041
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another Question
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 1999 18:08:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Not 100% sure but I will offer two suggestions.
1. There is a wave cloud that rolls across western Cape York to Normanton
and onwards on some winter mornings. Remnants of this cloud line have even
made it right across NT on rare occasions. I always thought these were dry,
but perhaps after crossing the gulf of Carpentaria they may pick up a little
mositure for a light shower in NE Arnhem land.
2. During periods of SE trades there must be mositure picked up from passing
over the Gulf to give light showers in the NE of Arnhem land. I have even
seen a fishing show where the chop generated by the SE trades across the
Gulf was 4-5ft and large enough to surf.
Michael
> Today Show Weatherman Monty Dwyer often refers to "Gulf Lines" -
>
> What are they exactly?
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
| Document: 990826.htm
Updated: 09 September 1999 |
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