Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Monday, 18 October 1999

From Subject -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 001 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Storms 002 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Ski season not dead yet? 003 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Re: Q's re: Supposed rain totals from Storm 004 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Hunter Chase Today 005 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Weather Warning out-of-date ? 006 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] STA For Sydney 007 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Sydney Region Tonight - LAPS 5km Model Run... 008 "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com] Sydney Situation 009 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] Northern NSW activity 010 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at mail.com] Storm in Canberra 011 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Sydney Situation 012 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Seminar on snow this Friday in Canberra 013 "paulmoss" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Radar Looking very interesting.... 014 "paulmoss" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Radar Looking very interesting.... 015 "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au] Radar Looking very interesting.... 016 "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com] aus-wx Monday' s Storm 017 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Stormy afternoon 018 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Seminar on snow this Friday in Canberra 019 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Lightning show 020 "paulmoss" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Lightning show & Hunter Storms 021 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Storm in Canberra 022 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Storm in Canberra (2) 023 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Seminar on snow this Friday in Canberra 024 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Brisbane's Turn Next? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 001 Date: Sun, 17 Oct 1999 17:12:20 +0100 From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aus-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com dear list - Looking forward to some real weather perhaps LIs in the -11.7 region rather than the 11.7 we have today, great for stratocumulus. http://www-das.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?OUTPUT=GIF&TYPE=SKEWT&HOUR=12&DAY=17&MONTH=10&YEAR=1999&STATION=EGQM&eu.x=174&eu.y=248 That's for RAF Boulmer, 25 miles up the road.... Les +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 002 Date: Sun, 17 Oct 1999 16:39:54 -0700 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ski season not dead yet? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Oy! This info is straight from a Severe Australian Weather associate of mine (not to mention he's a Weather Bureau man) and things could be good for next weekend! Lindsay P. PS: Car engine blew up two days ago. Blair Trewin wrote: > > Both the GASP and ECMWF models have some very cold air (for this > time of year) coming up to affect SE Australia on Friday - although > they get to this scenario by rather different routes (ECMWF has a > Tasman Sea low early in the week, GASP doesn't). Thicknesses are > progged to be in the 530-534 range in Melbourne at 1200Z on Friday. > If this happens it will be comfortably enough for snow on the > mountains. > > GASP then pushes the cold air north into NSW on Saturday (sub-540 > reaching the Northern Tablelands). Could be some interest on the > higher parts of the Central and Northern Tablelands if it happens. > > Blair Trewin > + +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 003 Date: Sun, 17 Oct 1999 16:16:10 -0700 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Q's re: Supposed rain totals from Storm Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Good point Michael, Even a grain of truth embedded in a handfull of husk is worth keeping. Some of the most interesting discoveries are found buried under myth or exaggeration etc. Don't knock an enthusiastic fossiker for finding fools gold, they may not come back to show you the real thing. Lindsay P. Michael Thompson wrote: > > It actually reminds me of TV show I saw recently, a Tasmanian scientist is > known to be quite sceptical about Tasmanian Tiger sightings, what has > happened is that word has got around and possible sightings are not reported > to this person, but to media instead. > > By the way this does not mean I believe Thylacines to still alive, it is > just to point out like Paul Mossman said, we have to welcome all reports. > > Michael > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 004 X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified) X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 09:57:40 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Hunter Chase Today Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Everyone Myself and Daniel Weatherhead will be chasing in the hunter today, we will initially be heading to singleton and we will see how we go from there. Models are looking good and the BoM forecast is good as well (possible squalls/hail in storms etc) It looks like it might really take off around late afternoon, so we should get a nice lightning show i hope ! Any updates will be appreciated my Mobile # is 0407 069 693 Thanks in advance Matthew Smith ASWA Committee Member ----------Storm Chase Reports and Photos:--------- ------http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm----- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 11:21:36 +1000 005 From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au] Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Weather Warning out-of-date ? X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id VAA00693 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com "New Scientist" of 9 October, 1999 No2207 has a subtitle "Why there's worse to come from El Ni�o". Unfortunately, the specific artical is not on-line:-( See; http://www.newscientist.com/ns/19991009/contents.html Nevertheless, I have read the paper version about which I've concluded that although the research seems sound, one of the conclusions seems vague, perhaps out-of-date and is not supported by reasonable recent detail. This is more a comment about the author of the arctical rather than the people who did the research, I suspect. Dan Schrag, who is based at Harvard University's Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, discovered some fossil coral while diving for fun in Indonesia "...the pattern of El Ni�o events revealed in his 125 000-year old coral looks exactly like the modern period before 1976, but nothing like the post- 1976 period...", further, "...prior to 1976 the dominant return period for El Ni�o was around six years...But the post-1976 record shows a peak return period at 3.5 years. The implication is that the cycling of El Ni�o was highly stable over hundreds of thousands of years, but has changed fundamentally in the past quarter century..." (sic - the NS author, Fred Pearce is entitled to some journalistic license). The artical is attempting to both link and pre-empt Schrag's conclusions soon to be published in "Geophysical Research Letters" concerning global warming implications on El Ni�o. Shrag and Guilderson published an artical in "Science" last year (vol 281, p240) "...that since 1976 the thermocline- the boundary zone between surface and deep water that lies around 50 metres below surface - has deepened by 10 metres or more...Schrag concludes that the post-1976 change in the thermocline may be responsible for the increase in the frequency and instensity of El Ni�o events since then...". Again, with some journalistic license, Pearce writes of the Eastern Pacific "...This area of ocean is a constant battle-ground between warm waters at the surface and cold waters that well up from the deep. Most of the time the upwelling is dominant. But during El Ni�os, when warm waters wash across the Pacific from the west, the upwelling is shut off. What seems to have happened is that this shut-off has become near permanent...". What concerns me about the above, is that the artical is at risk of being "out-of-date". Most, if not all of the conclusions are based on pre-1999 data. Basically, the El Ni�o event of 1997/8 was in full swing when the data and conclusions were made. Since then, a somewhat dominant La Ni�a event has been in progress and is set to continue to at least mid/late 2000. I am wondering whether this current La Ni�a has affected Schrags data about the nature of the thermocline. In other words, the upwelling of deep waters has NOT been cut off, rather, the swing between contrasting El Ni�o/La Ni�a events seems more rapid and intense in recent time rather than becoming predominantly El Ni�o. I am appealing to those climatologists on the list e.g. Dr. David Jones, to comment about this. My own feeling is that there is much more going on driving the Eastern Pacific thermocline other than tropical conditions, for example, feeder effects of the ACC or Antartic Circumpolar Current. What if global warming resulted in significant melting of Antartic Ice Sheets that will fundamentally alter both the intensity and temperature of the ACC, thereby increasing, rather than decreasing deep-water upwelling in the Eastern Pacific associated with El Ni�o? I crave for the bigger picture... Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 006 Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 12:55:58 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: STA For Sydney Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Some very nice cells near Sydney (one has had max intensity for 40mins, and moving slowly) TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTSEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGYNEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1243 on Monday the 18th of October 1999 This advice affects people in the following weather districts: Central Tablelands Central West Slopes and PlainsSouth West SlopesHunter Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area from12:45pm until 6:45pm Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing large hailstones, destructive winds and very heavy rainfall. -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 007 Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 12:53:17 +1000 From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au] Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Region Tonight - LAPS 5km Model Run... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Samples of the BoM LAPS 5km run for winds and precipitation is up on the Olympic Registered Services Site; http://www.bom.gov.au/olympic/models2.htm#Mesoscale This is most impressive but watch out, there's heaps of data >10MB! and javascript animations. It shows the cold front crossing Sydney between 9pm and 10pm tonight with substantial convergence and vorticity positioned in a NNW to SSE line passing over the Northern Suburbs through North Head about 10pm. The precipitation forecast (also incredibly detailed) will take some time to interpret as it shows several bands of rain crossing Sydney from 2pm, more intense storms around Penrith at 6pm moving NE and intensifying to the north of Hornsby by 9pm, a sleeper of a squall line that is most intense south of Wollongong 8pm tracking north and fades out before Sydney (I'd watch this more closely) and a beaut bunch of storm cells tracking NE being most intense over the Blue Mountains at 11:30pm heading toward the Hunter region where chasers Matt and Daniel are located. Given this sort of detail, it will be interesting to see what happens and conduct a post mortem (I hope not literally). Key to the Sydney situation will be the effect of local conditions on the inflow paths. Historically, we've seen some impressive developments associated with frontal passages like the one forecast for tonight. That's why I call one of the squall line paths "a sleeper". Given what can happen with enough wind sheer, vorticity and a nice, humid NE inflow feed, we could be in for a busy storm night around Sydney - again. Current obs, although not that impressive show that the NE feed situation is building up with both temps and RH rising. Temps are around 27C inland and 20C on the coast with RH around 50% inland and 80% on the coast. DP is thus rising as the the day progresses. Very interesting... Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 008 X-Originating-IP: [210.9.51.34] From: "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com] To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Situation Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 15:30:42 EST Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey All, Just to let you know that Jimmy will be out at Rooty Hill for the rest of the afternoon. If any one wants to join up with him or for updates please call him on his mobile 0407 069 693. Still looking nice for Sydney, most of the cells so far have been popping up on the mountains, headiing E and then dying once near the coastal plain area. There was one very nice looking cell up North which had some nice Supercell characteristics at around 2pm (Heading NE, with a patch of Red lasting for nearly 40 minutes) but it died out as it neared the coast also. Things do look nice for this evening, with a low forming off the Central Coast tonight. Later, James ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 009 X-Originating-IP: [203.2.218.1] From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Northern NSW activity Date: Sun, 17 Oct 1999 22:28:11 PDT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon Weather Heads..... There has been storm activity brewing in the Dorrigo region from about noon in the Northern Rivers and looks like some of it is on the march northwards. There is a band of three cells pretty close together SW of Casino in very remote country around Baryulgil. It appears the action will be west of Casino this afternoon. Halden ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 010 X-Sender: cmaunder at mail.dynamite.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0.5 (32) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 15:45:19 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at mail.com] Subject: aus-wx: Storm in Canberra Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Finally!! A fairly intense looking cell is slowly shadowing my house as I type. Some great structure, a little rotation and some nice deep rumblings are coming out of it. Patrick - you watching this one?? ------------------------------------ Chris Maunder Canberra, Australia Dundas Software www.dundas.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 011 Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 16:30:04 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Incorrect Mobile Number (was) Re: aus-wx: Sydney Situation Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com James Harris wrote: > > Hey All, > > Just to let you know that Jimmy will be out at Rooty Hill for the rest of > the afternoon. If any one wants to join up with him or for updates please > call him on his mobile 0407 069 693. This is the same as Matt Smith's, are you sure it's the correct #? -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 012 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: aus-wx: Seminar on snow this Friday in Canberra To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 16:41:38 +1000 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Readers in the Canberra region may be interested to know that I'm giving a seminar to the Canberra Centre of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society on Friday. The topic is 'Notable Snow Events in South-Eastern Australia'. It's at 12.30 p.m. in the CRES Seminar Room at ANU (5th floor of the Hancock Building). Anyone interested is welcome to attend. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 013 From: "paulmoss" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Radar Looking very interesting.... Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 17:01:31 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3155.0 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Howdy all. Those Lucky Sydneysiders are again having some interesting weather. Current radar has multiple cells all over the place with some (or most) in the pink. Lucky them! Here now there is not much action - most still on the ranges developing - radar is quiet. Paul at Taree (and home at last) +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 014 From: "paulmoss" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar Looking very interesting.... Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 17:15:52 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3155.0 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Very intense cell now to the South of Singleton - has gone into the red! Not bad at all. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 015 From: "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar Looking very interesting.... Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 17:35:36 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1161 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There here Paul, Wool is in for a long night. Keep low all. My mobile is on. Grant ---------- > From: paulmoss > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar Looking very interesting.... > Date: Monday, 18 October 1999 17:15 > > Very intense cell now to the South of Singleton - has gone into the red! Not > bad at all. > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 016 From: "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: aus-wx Monday' s Storm Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 18:32:01 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

We are just about to leave for Homebush and will be back about 8 pm, if any one is coming this way to watch the lightning, please ring us on 9997 5557 and leave a message. Then we can come and find you.

The Mayos.

017 X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 20:26:37 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Stormy afternoon Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi, Well I did go to Rooty Hill and observed some nice structure, especially those storms to the N. I chased a little cell which proced heavy rain around Horsley Park and then moved NE-E towards the Northern Suburbs. It then began to develop with other cells and produced a fair bit of lightning during the evening. But boy did the storms go off in the Hunter. Matt Smith and Daniel Weatherhead are having a ball up there. They say they have footage of a lightning bolt blowing up a power station emitting a glow in the process!!! Personally I am glad they had the opportunity to go up there. One thing I noticed was during the evening a fresh to strong SE wind developed. Stratus developed ONLY over the northern suburbs and Schofields ( at #$! at $) cutting my view of the action. However, this to me rings a bell as it related to lower level convergence associated with some East Coast Low developments. The only difference is that the winds are normally from the E. Nevertheless, there are some severe lightning bolts hitting down occasionally as a cell comes over: enough to leave scud marks (if you know what I mean). Another interesting thing I noticed was the latest synoptic chart: the cold front lags with a kink along the ranges. This also reminds me of similar situations when supercells have occurred over Sydney whereas in this case it has occurred just north of Sydney. I have placed an image of the latest synoptic and the satpic at the following link and an associated lifted index and cape forecast for 06Z and 09Z from the latest model. These can be found at http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/temp/991018/ Jimmy Deguara +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 018 Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 20:52:14 +1000 From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Seminar on snow this Friday in Canberra Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Blair... Can't make it but would love to see a summary posted here. Don W Blair Trewin wrote: > > Readers in the Canberra region may be interested to know that I'm > giving a seminar to the Canberra Centre of the Australian > Meteorological and Oceanographic Society on Friday. > > The topic is 'Notable Snow Events in South-Eastern Australia'. > > It's at 12.30 p.m. in the CRES Seminar Room at ANU (5th floor of > the Hancock Building). Anyone interested is welcome to attend. > > Blair Trewin > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 019 X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 21:04:13 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Lightning show Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Matt Smith has just rung and said that they are booking in for the night. And yes he has suggested that there is lightning every half a second. We will see this video. What a season for E-NSW and the Hunter is having a ball. Jimmy Deguara +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 020 From: "paulmoss" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning show & Hunter Storms Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 21:31:39 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3155.0 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Gday all. Lucky Hunter people. Look at current radar images! Look at all those pink areas (and plenty red as well) There are some big cells pumping out there tonight. The satpic is also very impressive - the cells all form on a NW - SE line. And as usual we miss out...... ohh well they predict a storm for here tomorrow BUT I doubt it very much. Paul at Taree +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 021 From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au X-Lotus-FromDomain: AMA at TNPN To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 16:15:23 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm in Canberra Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yes - been watching this from Barton just south of Lake Burley Griffin - a half decent gust front and lots of lightning in the distance (but no thunder heard here). The most intense part of this cell passed to the south around Tuggeranong - should produce some good rain figures and I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't some hail. Looking further to the west it looks like a rain band is setting in with much cooler temperatures to follow - I notice Cooma and Mallacoota both sitting on 13. Patrick +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 022 From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au X-Lotus-FromDomain: AMA at TNPN To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 16:40:32 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm in Canberra (2) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yes...couple of v close CG's in the last few minutes from around 4.30 and this storm is going to have a bit more kick to it (for the Barton area) than I first thought. Sky is much darker now and the rain has increased from wind-blown spray to mod-heavy. Pity we lose the Wagga radar between 3.00pm and around 4.30pm (prime storm development time) - it would have been nice to watch the development of these cells. Patrick +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 023 From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au X-Lotus-FromDomain: AMA at TNPN To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 16:54:15 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Seminar on snow this Friday in Canberra Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks for that Blair - I am certainly interested in coming along. Given what some of the models had been suggesting for later this week, the timing of your address could be quite apt. Patrick +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 024 Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 23:12:07 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane's Turn Next? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Tomorrow is looking good for Brisbane, there were some ACCAS around tonight, and it's quite pleasant here (20.8C/DP18C at 11:10pm) - a very nice N'ly was up this evening, with the fragrence of summer in it, and a hint of storms. Some showers formed on the border ranges earlier this evening, another promising sign - along with all the storms that have been occurring in NE NSW for the past few days, and the activity the front has created around Sydney. Shearing is a lot better than previous days too. Lets hope... -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------