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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 11 November 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Tornado report in Gympie
002 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu] Cedar Pocket Thing
003 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Cedar Pocket Tornado
004 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Tornado report in Gympie
005 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Confirmation of Tornado near Gympie (Cedar Pocket)
006 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Cedar Pocket Tornado
007 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Cedar Pocket Tornado
008 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Cedar Pocket Thing
009 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Cedar Pocket Thing
010 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Cedar Pocket Tornado
011 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Cedar Pocket Tornado
012 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Cedar Pocket Thing
013 "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] Hail in the Mountains.
014 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Cold morning in Canberra/Perisher minima
015 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Cedar Pocket Thing
016 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Cedar Pocket Tornado
017 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Cedar Pocket Tornado
018 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] More hail at Blackheath
019 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Cold morning in Canberra/Perisher minima
020 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] Cold morning
021 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Cold morning in Canberra/Perisher minima
022 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Cold morning
023 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Cold morning in Canberra/Perisher minima
024 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Cedar Pocket Tornado
025 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] NPMOC access performance:-(
026 "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] BOM AWS--cost and use?
027 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Cedar Pocket Tornado
028 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Hail in the Mountains.
029 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) More hail at Blackheath
030 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Storm Potential next week !!!
031 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) NSW Severe Weather on BoM site
032 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au] 1999 leonids
033 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] "Mini-Thunderstorm" in Brisbane
034 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] NSW Severe Weather on BoM site
035 "Matt Smith" [ozchase at hotmail.com] Im Back
036 astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au] 1999 leonids
037 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Pocket Thunderstorm?
038 "John Graham" [gorzzz at optusnet.com.au] Pocket Thunderstorm?
039 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] SE QLD Storms
040 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au] "Mini-Thunderstorm" in Brisbane
041 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au] 1999 leonids
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001
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Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 09:07:49 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado report in Gympie
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I aggree with Les. As you all probably know WA gets alot of cool season
tornadoes here and really the only difference is what starts them. Coldies
are on average shorter lived than supercell type naders but this may be
also due to a large percentage of supercell naders going undetected due to
where they occur in Aus. In the end it may work out to be similar. Cool
season tornadoes are possibly more dangerous as they are very hard to see
except from a short didtance as they are usually rain wrapped or very close
to the rain curtain. Certainly most of the funnel sightings here are from
close range. However cool season naders can also sometimes be long lived,
since 1990 we have had several cool season F-3's each with tracks of apporx
70k's long, we have about 5 that i can think of, plus other shorter ones.
Also for interests sake i was going over figures (research im doing on
naders in aus ) and i found that going on current recorded tornadoes
Australia is on par with the USA in terms of percentages of strong
tornadoes to weak ones. So for us that means approx one F-5 per 250-300
years. There have been at least two F-4s in NSW since 1950, although it
seems these more than likely were F-5s plus the recent QLD F-4/F-5 event
(remember this is ones we know of) So since an F-5 hasnt been officially
recorded yet that means that Sydney and Brisbane or maybe even Perth,
Adelaide, Melb will get hit by an F-5 in the next 50 years. Thats in theory
and hardly a big call, Id be surprised if it takes that long
myself..............
Ira Fehlberg
>Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>> So - I guess the main debate is was it a coldie, or a warm-season
>> supercell tornado (keeping in mind that a TC spawned tornado works in a
>> similar way to a coldie). Conditions were favourable for coldies on
>
>We in the UK get "coldies" - presumably this is an ozzie term for
tornadoes spawned
>by cold fronts or single cells in deep cold air. There is no distinction
between
>coldie tornadoes and tornadoes spawned by supercells, except perhaps the
way that
>they've been formed - they both cause damage!
>
>Supercellular tornadoes can last longer but thats the only distinction IMHO.
>
>Talking to Matt Smith this morning - he was saying that your government is
playing
>down tornadoes this year as they don't want to scare away the tourists for
the
>millenium, olympics, etc..... here's your chance to do a form of
eco-tourism in the
>guise of "ASWA Storm Chase Tours" in the same way as Cloud 9 or Silver
Lining in
>Oklahoma (:
>
>Les
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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002
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Thing
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 15:59:05 +0000 (GMT)
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Hi ASWA,
Anthony wrote something surprising:
;I phoned Jeff C up this morning (head of QLD severe wx) and reported my
;findings to him, and we discussed the tornado. The reason who he said
;it was not a traditional tornado, was because he thought it may have
;actually been a coldie, rather than a warm-season supercellular tornado.
... but then ...
;However, this is not quite concrete yet. Here's where it gets
;interesting, the actual tornado reported, occurred in what appeared to
;be a rain band with isolated t'storms. BUT - the actual rain band
;itself, was formed by a dissipating supercel! To quote Jeff, it was a
;"huge supercell" - with intense echos 50% higher than the normal 'severe
;threshold criteria' (typically echoes of 45dbz over 8km/27,000ft are a
The existence of a huge supercell indicates that the general shear
environment was supportive of supercells and thus mesocylones.
On such days my first guess would be that tornadoes are
results from mesocyclones.
Cold air funnels (by the definition that I currently believe in)
require cold air aloft and fairly steep lapse rates at mid-levels.
This scenario is often associated with the passage of a cold
front, clearing skies behind the front and declining dewpoints.
Is that what Jeff C saw that makes him conclude it was a "coldie"?
Another player is the rear-flank downdraught of that collapsing supercell.
Just like an updraught, a downdraught can stretch vorticity which
should be appreciated to tornado-embryos. Can "gusting out" spin
up a brief tornado in a rainband?
Cheers, Harald
--
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
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003
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 18:01:21 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado
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Harald Richter wrote:
> Hi ASWA,
>
> Anthony wrote something surprising:
>
> ;I phoned Jeff C up this morning (head of QLD severe wx) and reported my
> ;findings to him, and we discussed the tornado. The reason who he said
> ;it was not a traditional tornado, was because he thought it may have
> ;actually been a coldie, rather than a warm-season supercellular tornado.
>
What we're arguing is is that there isn't such a thing as a non - traditional
or traditional tornado, just tornado regardless of the mechanism that formed
it...
Certainly the short duration, if this occured in the UK, would make it a
"coldie", indeed we get supercellular events once in every five - ten years or
so. It's still a tornado, not mini - tornado or anything of similar ilk.
>
> ... but then ...
>
> ;However, this is not quite concrete yet. Here's where it gets
> ;interesting, the actual tornado reported, occurred in what appeared to
> ;be a rain band with isolated t'storms. BUT - the actual rain band
> ;itself, was formed by a dissipating supercel! To quote Jeff, it was a
> ;"huge supercell" - with intense echos 50% higher than the normal 'severe
> ;threshold criteria' (typically echoes of 45dbz over 8km/27,000ft are a
>
Did any chasers see it - presumably not... Any radar archives????
>
> The existence of a huge supercell indicates that the general shear
> environment was supportive of supercells and thus mesocylones.
> On such days my first guess would be that tornadoes are
> results from mesocyclones.
>
> Cold air funnels (by the definition that I currently believe in)
> require cold air aloft and fairly steep lapse rates at mid-levels.
> This scenario is often associated with the passage of a cold
> front, clearing skies behind the front and declining dewpoints.
> Is that what Jeff C saw that makes him conclude it was a "coldie"?
Add to that updraught tightening in single cell / pulse storms in cold air -
these can and do produce short lived F1 / T3 tornado events in the UK and any
number of funnels.... but don't the dynamics of supercells inhibit this kind
of storm?
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004
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 14:54:06 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado report in Gympie
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All:
Anthony Cornelius stated the following:
> I phoned Jeff C up this morning (head of QLD severe wx) and reported my
> findings to him, and we discussed the tornado. The reason who he said
> it was not a traditional tornado, was because he thought it may have
> actually been a coldie, rather than a warm-season supercellular tornado.
>
> However, this is not quite concrete yet. Here's where it gets
> interesting, the actual tornado reported, occurred in what appeared to
> be a rain band with isolated t'storms. BUT - the actual rain band
> itself, was formed by a dissipating supercel! To quote Jeff, it was a
> "huge supercell" - with intense echos 50% higher than the normal 'severe
> threshold criteria' (typically echoes of 45dbz over 8km/27,000ft are a
> good indication that a t'storm is probably severe, this cell had echoes
> of 45dbz up to 12km/40,000ft) - and that was from Marburg radar, about
> 300km/190miles away! This cell was situated between Gayndah and Gympie,
> and caused a real mess between Gympie and Goomeri, apparently some one
> reported the highway between Gympie and Goomeri to be "impossible to
> travel through without a chainsaw" as it was covered with trees and
> branches.
>
> To add more fuel to the fire, as mentioned in my earlier email, a funnel
> cloud was reported in Gympie. Now, could this have meant that a tornado
> was present in the supercell before, and still continued as this
> particular cell weakened? IE - I have heard of reports in the US when
> a t'storm of 60,000ft have spawned a tornado, and the tornado was still
> present even when the t'storm had weakened substantially to about
> 35,000ft. Given this scenario, one could say it would be possible for
> the funnel to continue to skip along its path (as many do). It would
> not have been hard to miss Gympie, Gympie is not very big. Furthermore,
It would appear based on the information at hand that this was very likely
a supercellular tornado. Clearly it was associated with a large, strong,
tall, echo. This does not prove that it was a supercell but these are good
indications it was a supercell. (Supercell identification requires that
the storm contain a mesocyclone or that it has, on radar, an extensive Weak
Echo Region [WER], up-shear displaced echo top, and low-level pendent or
hook echo or that it has a Bounded WER [BWER], displaced echo top, and
pendent or hook echo. However, in order to recognize these features the
storm must be within moderate ranges (< ~ 170 km) of a relatively high
resolution (< ~ 1.5 degree beam width) radar, preferably an S-band.
Reflectivities in these storms are most often greater than about 55 dBZ up
to ~78 dBZ. Reference is given below to the "collapse" in echo top just
preceding and contemporaneously with the tornado development and
continuation. Usually by "collapse" we are referring to a reduction in
echo top of ~ 4 km or less. Note, however, that radar height measurements
are often poor with a margin of error that may be within the reduction
amount mentioned above. I would not expect to see a reduction of 25,000
ft. Along with the echo top collapse, the collapse phase of a
supercellular storm also is characterized by weakening reflectivities, hook
echo "wrap up" and disappearance, and collapse and disappearance of the
WER/BWER. But, it is at this time that damaging micro/downbursts and
tornadoes are at their highest likelihood. Hail size is usually rapidly
diminishing during this phase after having been at golf ball or larger.
Note also that many times the condensation funnel will not reach the ground
even though damaging winds are in progress at the surface. I have even
seen F5 damage when the visible funnel did not reach the surface.
Sometimes throughout the life time of the tornado, the funnel will never
reach the ground, but most often with supercellular tornadoes the funnel
will reach the surface for a portion, if not for most of the tornadoes
life.
I believe that by "coldie" tornadoes you may be referring to what we call
in the sates, "landspouts". These tornadoes originate in the boundary
layer from preexisting vertical vorticity, usually boundary associated.
Generally they develop at waves on a boundary or at the point of collision
of two low-level boundaries. Towering cumulus will be developing above
these low-level convergence zones. The updraft from one of these TCU will
become associated with these preexisting low-level vortices (usually 1500
meters or less across) and vertically stretch it, thus augmenting
rotational velocities. It is then that the landspout or boundary layer
tornado will develop. Often it is identified as a dust and debris whirl
extending upward for some short distance. These debris columns will often
develop a hollow appearance and may progress upward eventually to cloud
base of the TCU. Condensation funnels will most often develop after the
surface based tornado has been in progress for a few or more minutes.
Rarely do these funnel clouds actually touch down. Top F scale for these
tornadoes is about F2. Damage path width will usually be less than ~ 150
meters, often much less. Path lengths will be short, but can be up to ~15
km.
There are also "cold core funnel clouds" during the cold season which are
associated with cold core lows aloft. These funnels very rarely ever
reach the surface. There are also "gustnadoes" which occur along tstm
outflow boundaries but will never be seen with funnel clouds. The top F
scale for gustnadoes is perhaps F1.
Thus, all indictions are that this tornado was a supercellular tornado in
my estimation.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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005
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 15:29:21 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Confirmation of Tornado near Gympie (Cedar Pocket)
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All:
> As Ben mentioned earlier, Ben and I went up to Cedar Pocket, near Gympie
> (about a 2hr drive north of Brisbane), to survey the possible tornado
> damage.
much snipped......
Interesting survey. What is usually responsible for lots of irregularities
of damage in the damage path, are multiple vortices, that is, these
tornadoes are usually multi-vortex tornadoes. Often the path will be
narrow and much of the damage will appear to lay down from one direction,
the direction of travel of the tornado. Additionally, in grassy fields you
may see how the wind converged into a narrow "deposition" line as we called
it.
Great description and great job!!
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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006
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 15:48:02 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado
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All:
> Add to that updraught tightening in single cell / pulse storms in cold
air -
> these can and do produce short lived F1 / T3 tornado events in the UK and
any
> number of funnels.... but don't the dynamics of supercells inhibit this
kind
> of storm?
Supercells occur in environments characterized by moderate to strong shear.
This type of an environment is not conducive to "pulse" severe storms.
Don Burgess and myself named these storms as "pulse" storms because there
is insufficient low-level inflow to balance the updraft in the moist,
unstable environments. Low level winds are often light and/or variable.
Thus, the updraft takes on the form of a pulse. Tornadoes with these
storms are usually or nearly always gustnadoes occurring along the leading
edge of the storm outflow.......along the gust front. I suspect that in
the UK you probably get more of the 'cold air funnels' associated with cold
closed upper low pressure systems.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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007
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 21:25:53 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado
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"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> All:Supercells occur in environments characterized by moderate to strong
> shear.
Thought So!!
>
> I suspect that in
> the UK you probably get more of the 'cold air funnels' associated with cold
> closed upper low pressure systems.
We do - cold fronts and showers in cold air - occasionally MCC&MCS but
supercell events are rare in the UK, you have to go to Holland(!) and the Alps
for them....
Highest CAPE all year for this area (Wallsend, UK 55N 1.30W )was 800!
we're going to see these Ozzie babies for ourselves, though....
Les (UK)
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008
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 16:25:05 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Thing
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All:
Harald said:
> Another player is the rear-flank downdraught of that collapsing
supercell.
> Just like an updraught, a downdraught can stretch vorticity which
> should be appreciated to tornado-embryos. Can "gusting out" spin
> up a brief tornado in a rainband?
The RFD is a fundamental ingredient in supercells and the tornadoes they
spawn. The major supercell tornadoes are spawn in the vertical velocity
gradient between the RFD and the updraft. These weak to violent supercell
tornadoes are all associated with the RFD and do not develop until the RFD
emerges at cloud base and below. The mystery deals with the origin of the
RFD and the source for the apparent high potential vorticity (PV) fond in
the RFD. I believe it originates from the upper troposphere or even the
lower stratosphere (Lemon and Doswell, 1979). Others, especially numerical
modelers believe in a much lower level origin, (Droegemier, et all, 1999).
We hope to be able to collect information concerning this in the next US
spring in TX and OK.
Yes, storms with a gust front.....virtually all tstms, can produce
'gustnadoes' along those boundaries.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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009
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 21:41:46 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
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"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> All:
>
> Harald said:
>
>
> We hope to be able to collect information concerning this in the next US
> spring in TX and OK.
We hope to collect information on this in two weeks time in NSW (-:
Les (UK)
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010
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 21:53:15 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
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Subject: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado
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hi all -
Perhaps we should call all of this type of tornado, whatever spawned
it, a "cedar pocket tornado" in commemoration of the house it blew down
in Cedar Pocket - it certainly sounds better than mini - tornado,
mini-cyclone or whatever...
Incidentally, what was the house made of - from the photo it looks like
timber + board panelling and a corrugated iron roof - is this the case
and is this a typical house in these areas, no wonder it blew apart....
perhaps the Strong family should build one made of brick or reinforced
concrete - F1 / T3-4 damage should certainly remove the roof but not
practically demolish it...
Hope they get their insurance sorted out... poor souls......
Les(UK)
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
011
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 17:19:39 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Les (UK):
You might be interested in the fact that the first supercell storm ever
identified was in Wokingham England in 1959 by a young British scientist,
Keith Browning, (Browning and Ludlam, 1960, 1962). It is know in the
literature as the Wokingham storm and, at that time became known as a
"Severe Right" or SR storm. Browning later named these storm types
"Supercells". That occurred after he came to the US on a post-doc and
studied an outbreak of tornadic storms 26 May, 1963. That study resulted
in a group of classic papers by Browning (1964, 1965a, b, c,) which are
foundational to our
severe storm and supercell knowledge today. Browning is currently a
professor at Reading University, the UK.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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012
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 17:26:59 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Thing
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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> We hope to collect information on this in two weeks time in NSW (-:
>
> Les (UK)
Terrific! I envy you! Wish I to could be there! Is this an organized and
instrumented field program? I hope you are wonderfully successful! Let me
know, if you will, what happens?
Les (US)
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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013
From: "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Hail in the Mountains.
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 10:06:40 +1100
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Hey,
At about 6:45 last night between Springwood and Blaxland, in the Blue
Mountains, i copped some fairly decent hail from a line of showers that
moved over us at that time. Their was extremely torrential rain, then a 1
minute burst of hail. It started off as small grain sized but moved up to
being 5c size until it stopped. I am not sure exactly which direction the
cell was moving but i guess NE.
Also yesterday we had some fairly heavy falls around 12 noon-1pm. These
showers came from some very dense cu, that seemed to die once off the
mountains.
We recieved 12.2mm from that cell in around 20 minutes
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
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014
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Cold morning in Canberra/Perisher minima
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 10:13:16 +1100 (EST)
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Canberra got down to -1 this morning. In only one year (1967, twice)
has a temperature below 0 been recorded later in spring.
Also, it appears that there was a bubble in the Perisher minimum
thermometer over the last couple of days - which means that the
-8.5 recorded there earlier in the week is invalid. The -7 at Charlottes
Pass this morning is genuine.
Cooma got -3 and Cooma Airport -4, quite impressive but not record
material. I suspect southern inland Queensland will again be the
most likely candidate for records, but the obs haven't yet come in
from there (remembering Queensland is an hour behind).
Blair Trewin
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015
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 23:31:42 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Thing
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> > We hope to collect information on this in two weeks time in NSW (-:
> >
> > Les (UK)
>
> Terrific! I envy you! Wish I to could be there! Is this an organized and
> instrumented field program? I hope you are wonderfully successful! Let me
> know, if you will, what happens?
It's a storm chase with hopefully lots of footage and photographs taken, 30 odd
Australians and two Scots. I've waited 30 years for something like this!
Les (UK)
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016
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 23:29:17 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> Les (UK):
>
> You might be interested in the fact that the first supercell storm ever
> identified was in Wokingham England in 1959 by a young British scientist,
> Keith Browning, (Browning and Ludlam, 1960, 1962). It is know in the
> literature as the Wokingham storm and, at that time became known as a
> "Severe Right" or SR storm.
I've always wanted that paper by K.Browning and F.H. Ludlam, I'm not a
professional metman but my physics and weather are up to the job - lucky devil
finding a supercell in the UK, a rare event indeed and something I hope to
find when in Oz!
The Uk is the most tornado prone country, per unit area, in the world (Fujita)
but the US and indeed Australia are in there - the aus-wx website has all
manner of extreme events photographed....
As mentioned earlier the UK spawns most tornadoes IN WINTER generally on cold
fronts and single cell storms (polar maritime air), with the occasional MCS
and MCC thrown in in summer. Holland and the Alps is the most supercell prone
countries in Europe, I believe Spain is most prone to severe "pulse storms",
Doswell has a few papers on his website re this last little lot.
Les (UK)
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017
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 09:29:01 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
Thanks very much for your interest in this topic, I have condensed all
emails into one larger email so I don't end up repeating myself.
First:
Harald Richter wrote:
> The existence of a huge supercell indicates that the general shear
> environment was supportive of supercells and thus mesocylones.
> On such days my first guess would be that tornadoes are
> results from mesocyclones.
I agree here with your assumptions. Only one must wonder when the
actual tornado then forms in a rain band. Is it possible for a
mesocyclone to still form under a rain band? I have uploaded two radar
loops to show the storms. Thanks to Paul Miracki saving these for me
while I was in exams, unfortunately radar was playing up at the time, so
between 0440 and 0600 is missing. But you can see the cells to the NW
of Gympie. Cedar Pocket is just SE of Gympie. The URL's are:
http://bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/IDR501lpa.GIF
http://bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/IDR501lpb.GIF
> Cold air funnels (by the definition that I currently believe in)
> require cold air aloft and fairly steep lapse rates at mid-levels.
> This scenario is often associated with the passage of a cold
> front, clearing skies behind the front and declining dewpoints.
> Is that what Jeff C saw that makes him conclude it was a "coldie"?
When we use the nickname "coldie" here in Australia, we refer to not
only cold air funnels, but more so all tornadoes that form under high
shear, low bouyancy environments. This includes tornadoes spawned by
TC's, as they form under the same mechanism. It just so happens that
most of these tornadoes form when cold air is aloft from cold air Cb (ie
shear is often very strong during cold air 'outbreaks'). SW WA often
receives many tornadoes of this nature during their vigorous cold fronts
in winter.
> Another player is the rear-flank downdraught of that collapsing supercell.
> Just like an updraught, a downdraught can stretch vorticity which
> should be appreciated to tornado-embryos. Can "gusting out" spin
> up a brief tornado in a rainband?
You raise a point here. However, a funnel was reported about 10km
before Cedar Pocket, on the outskirts of Gympie. So this does
complicate things further.
And Leslie...
> I believe that by "coldie" tornadoes you may be referring to what we call
> in the sates, "landspouts".
Not too sure on this one - but I put a short description of "coldies" in
AU above. Feel free to give your opinions on the
differences/similarities.
>Interesting survey. What is usually responsible for lots of >irregularities
>of damage in the damage path, are multiple vortices, that is, these
>tornadoes are usually multi-vortex tornadoes. Often the path will be
>narrow and much of the damage will appear to lay down from one >direction,
>the direction of travel of the tornado. Additionally, in grassy fields >you
>may see how the wind converged into a narrow "deposition" line as we >called it.
The thought of a multi-vortex tornado had crossed my mind while
examining the survey. It would explain why one part of the house
remained virtually untouched, while the other half almost destroyed -
but with damage all around the house. One thing that had also crossed
my mind, was that the tornado was moving quite quickly, and the path of
the tornado, and the positioning of the damage caused by the tornado
would support that the 'forward facing' part of the tornado could have
been strengthened by movement of the tornado. (An extension of this is
below for Les(UK's) comment). The tornado was only 100m at its widest
point though, I've generally only considered multi-vortex tornadoes to
occur in very large tornadoes. Any comments? We saw quite clearly the
grass converging in some areas (but not all - only in tall grasses).
And Les(UK) wrote...
>Incidentally, what was the house made of - from the photo it looks like
>timber + board panelling and a corrugated iron roof - is this the case
>and is this a typical house in these areas, no wonder it blew apart....
>perhaps the Strong family should build one made of brick or reinforced
>concrete - F1 / T3-4 damage should certainly remove the roof but not
>practically demolish it...
I personally thought the tornado was F1. The reason being was that half
the house was nearly destroyed, where as the other half was almost
untouched. However, the part that was destroyed was an extension put on
the house after the original house was built. Coincidence? One would
possibly expect the newer part to withstand more, but I guess this
brings the debate over whether older houses are actually stronger than
some new houses! After all, they were made to last back in the 'old
days.' I'm personally on the beleif, that some of the older homes are
stronger than the newer homes now, that are only held together by the
bare essentials.
Now my thoughts...
I personally, am of the belief that this was actually still a
supercellular tornado. The presence of a weak mesocyclone may have
still been present, especially since a supercell was present before.
I'm also suggesting that the tornado actually lasted a lot longer than
what we saw, most probabily during the existence of the supercell
itself, and it just continued through the dissipating stage.
None the less, certainly not your 'average' tornado situation though!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
018
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 15:24:42 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More hail at Blackheath
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Pardon my ignorance Laurier, or, others if you want to help but what
exactly does the "5.2 degrees in the free atmoshpere at Blackheath
altitude" mean in the below context?
Taa.
Lindsay Pearce.
Laurier Williams wrote:
>
> Between 1 and 1.45pm we've had three separate wintry showers of heavy
> rain and sago to pea-sized hail. Definitely no thunder this time.
> Large Cu have been around all morning, but didn't look high enough to
> generate much. It's obviiously still pretty cold upstairs -- here's
> the latest ACARS data -- freezing level around 5400 feet, and only
> 5.2C in the free atmosphere at Blackheath's altitude. There's a note
> on how to read the data at the bottom.
>
> >** QF0127
> >10/11/99 0115 3357S 15110E F001 PS144 176/028
> >10/11/99 0115 3357S 15110E F004 PS133 184/028
> >10/11/99 0115 3357S 15110E F006 PS123 185/032
> >10/11/99 0115 3358S 15110E F009 PS115 184/032
> >10/11/99 0115 3358S 15110E F012 PS105 189/036
> >10/11/99 0116 3358S 15110E F015 PS098 190/036
> >10/11/99 0116 3359S 15110E F018 PS085 189/035
> >10/11/99 0116 3359S 15110E F020 PS080 195/033
> >10/11/99 0116 3400S 15110E F024 PS070 194/033
> >10/11/99 0116 3401S 15110E F026 PS062 196/031
> >10/11/99 0117 3401S 15110E F029 PS055 196/032
> >10/11/99 0117 3402S 15110E F032 PS052 201/032
> >10/11/99 0118 3405S 15110E F048 PS027 208/032
> >10/11/99 0118 3408S 15110E F064 MS016 222/033
> >10/11/99 0119 3410S 15107E F081 MS044 199/027
> >10/11/99 0120 3408S 15102E F099 MS064 212/027
> >10/11/99 0121 3402S 15100E F118 MS107 209/034
> >10/11/99 0122 3355S 15056E F138 MS150 199/037
> >10/11/99 0123 3349S 15053E F160 MS188 227/026
> >10/11/99 0124 3343S 15050E F183 MS246 213/015
> >10/11/99 0125 3336S 15046E F208 MS301 232/008
> >10/11/99 0127 3327S 15036E F236 MS373 188/018
> >10/11/99 0128 3316S 15024E F266 MS419 198/020
> >10/11/99 0130 3307S 15013E F300 MS430 232/037
>
> How to read ACARS data (which is automatically transmitted from planes
> -- as they take off/land they're almost as good as a sonde!
>
> >** QF0127
> >10/11/99 0115 3357S 15110E F001 PS144 176/028
>
> This is from flight QF0127. This report is at 0115UTC (12.15EDST)
> today. Plane was at 33.57S and 151.10E. Flight level 001 = 100 feet
> (FL010 = 1000', FL300=30000' etc). Temp is positive 14.4, wind 176
> degrees at 28 knots
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
019
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 11:31:41 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold morning in Canberra/Perisher minima
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
[snip]
Blair Trewin wrote on Thu, 11 Nov 1999 10:13:16 +1100 (EST)
>
> Also, it appears that there was a bubble in the Perisher minimum
> thermometer over the last couple of days - which means that the
> -8.5 recorded there earlier in the week is invalid. The -7 at Charlottes
> Pass this morning is genuine.
>
[snip]
Surely, this is not a recent problem. There have been some other
strange readings of both maximum and minimum temperatures at
Perisher this year. When manual records have been kept at Technology
Lodge this year, the differences have been notable. I know that a
more lofty elevation (such as Technology Lodge - the highest in Oz)
will move the recording point out of the Perisher Valley "frost
hollow", but on windy days I would expect that a difference in
altitude from 1735m at Site Num 071072 to some 1795m at Technology
would be around -0.5C at most. On many occasions, the difference was
around -2.5C for maximums on windy days and +4.0C for windy nights
i.e Technology was colder in the day and warmer at night. Now when
the snow guns were firing on calmer nights, when one would expect
that the valley would be colder than the hills, however, the noted
differences were minimal, about +1.0C. Take the snow guns away and
the valley's temperature would often plummet yielding a difference
of up to +6.0C between the hills and the valley.
Me thinks that Site Num 071072 (Perisher Valley) is in a poor spot
in relation to neighbouring buildings, snow making equipment and
the continual passage of over-snow vehicles during the day. This
means that the records in more recent time could be subject to
more scepticism. I'm not quite sure what a better cost-effective
solution would require. Before "Packer's Palace" was built and
snow-making increased, the site was well placed. However, these
days, I'm not convinced. In an ideal world, you'd keep 071072 and
improve manual obs then bring into operation a number of AWS's at
different locations since both temperature and precipitation vary
markedly across the resort and most definently toward the main
Snowy Mountains range. This could be co-funded using some dividend
distributions from Mr. Packer's private non-tax-paying $1.2B profit
company of which Perisher-Blue is a "loss-making subsiduary" that
effectively gobbles-up lots of capital expenses.
As an aside, a decent AWS up on the main range might give a better
indication of the conditions out there than the Thredbo AWS. Equip
it with a one number emergency CDMA telephone connection, audible
beacon, radio beacon, hot chocolate making facilities etc. and the
BoM might just help to save the lives of future unlucky people
who like snow-boarding and back-country skiing - partly serious
suggestion...
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
020
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 12:03:24 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold morning
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Blair
Noticed that Mt Isa came close to their record November minimum. Are you
able to confirm if the record was broken?
Many thanks, Mark
--
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________
----------
>From: Blair Trewin
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
>Subject: aus-wx: Cold morning in Canberra/Perisher minima
>Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 10:13 AM
>
> Canberra got down to -1 this morning. In only one year (1967, twice)
> has a temperature below 0 been recorded later in spring.
>
> Also, it appears that there was a bubble in the Perisher minimum
> thermometer over the last couple of days - which means that the
> -8.5 recorded there earlier in the week is invalid. The -7 at Charlottes
> Pass this morning is genuine.
>
> Cooma got -3 and Cooma Airport -4, quite impressive but not record
> material. I suspect southern inland Queensland will again be the
> most likely candidate for records, but the obs haven't yet come in
> from there (remembering Queensland is an hour behind).
>
> Blair Trewin
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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021
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold morning in Canberra/Perisher minima
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 12:08:32 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
> [snip]
>
> Blair Trewin wrote on Thu, 11 Nov 1999 10:13:16 +1100 (EST)
> >
> > Also, it appears that there was a bubble in the Perisher minimum
> > thermometer over the last couple of days - which means that the
> > -8.5 recorded there earlier in the week is invalid. The -7 at Charlottes
> > Pass this morning is genuine.
> >
> [snip]
>
> Surely, this is not a recent problem. There have been some other
> strange readings of both maximum and minimum temperatures at
> Perisher this year. When manual records have been kept at Technology
> Lodge this year, the differences have been notable. I know that a
> more lofty elevation (such as Technology Lodge - the highest in Oz)
> will move the recording point out of the Perisher Valley "frost
> hollow", but on windy days I would expect that a difference in
> altitude from 1735m at Site Num 071072 to some 1795m at Technology
> would be around -0.5C at most. On many occasions, the difference was
> around -2.5C for maximums on windy days and +4.0C for windy nights
> i.e Technology was colder in the day and warmer at night. Now when
> the snow guns were firing on calmer nights, when one would expect
> that the valley would be colder than the hills, however, the noted
> differences were minimal, about +1.0C. Take the snow guns away and
> the valley's temperature would often plummet yielding a difference
> of up to +6.0C between the hills and the valley.
>
> Me thinks that Site Num 071072 (Perisher Valley) is in a poor spot
> in relation to neighbouring buildings, snow making equipment and
> the continual passage of over-snow vehicles during the day. This
> means that the records in more recent time could be subject to
> more scepticism. I'm not quite sure what a better cost-effective
> solution would require. Before "Packer's Palace" was built and
> snow-making increased, the site was well placed. However, these
> days, I'm not convinced. In an ideal world, you'd keep 071072 and
> improve manual obs then bring into operation a number of AWS's at
> different locations since both temperature and precipitation vary
> markedly across the resort and most definently toward the main
> Snowy Mountains range. This could be co-funded using some dividend
> distributions from Mr. Packer's private non-tax-paying $1.2B profit
> company of which Perisher-Blue is a "loss-making subsiduary" that
> effectively gobbles-up lots of capital expenses.
Now, when I think of useful things that might be done with the
tax that ought to have been paid on Kerry Packer's profits, the
sky is the limit....
Just about every alpine site in Australia has a history of poor
observers/poorly maintained equipment/much missing data, especially
in summer - presumably because of a high turnover of (mostly)
seasonal staff. With the exception of Cabramurra, it's hard to
think of a single alpine station that has enough summer data to
develop a useful climatology prior to the arrival of AWSs (you'll
notice that a lot of the state record lows, particularly for maxima,
in the summer half of the year have been set in the 1990s). AWSs
have their own problems, especially if they're remote (ice accretion,
communications etc.), but I think they're the least worst option
for this region.
(Thredbo actually used to move its site from Crackenback in winter
to the village in summer!)
While I wouldn't expect it to happen on a windy night, you can get
some incredible gradients of minimum temperature in the mountains once
snow cover comes into play. In June 1992 (during a very cold spell
in which Cooma had several nights near -10), ANU had an experimental
site north of Kiandra which included numerous minimum thermometers
left on the grounds for two weeks, in the vicinity of a smallish
gully (local relief ~20 metres). Whilst ground temperatures on the
slopes of the gully bottomed out around -15, in the bottom of the
gully the ground temperature reached -27 (probably equating to a
screen temperature in the -20 to -23 range). Unfortunately neither
Kiandra nor Charlottes Pass were open at the time, otherwise the
Australian record low may have come under serious challenge.
> As an aside, a decent AWS up on the main range might give a better
> indication of the conditions out there than the Thredbo AWS. Equip
> it with a one number emergency CDMA telephone connection, audible
> beacon, radio beacon, hot chocolate making facilities etc. and the
> BoM might just help to save the lives of future unlucky people
> who like snow-boarding and back-country skiing - partly serious
> suggestion...
Let's go all the way and resurrect Clement Wragge's old Mount Koscuisko
station...(for the uninitiated, there was an observatory established
on or near - I'm not sure of the exact location - the mountain around
the turn of the century, which lasted a year or so). Actually, I would
expect that Crackenback would be reasonably representative of the
main range (other than being a degree or two warmer than the highest
parts of it).
Blair Trewin
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022
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold morning
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 12:20:07 +1100 (EST)
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>
> Blair
>
> Noticed that Mt Isa came close to their record November minimum. Are you
> able to confirm if the record was broken?
Not without contacting the station - aggravatingly, Met Offices still
only report in real time to the nearest degree (it's a problem with
the code format). The rounded minimum was 11 and the record is 10.7,
so there's only a 2/11 chance that it was 10.5 or 10.6. Also, note
that Mount Isa appears to have a substantial (1-2 C) discontinuity
in the record in late 1997 (this is obvious from the maps of 3-monthly
min. temp. anomalies on the Bureau site - the area around Mt. Isa shows
up as a marked 'bullseye'), and has been challenging a lot of records
recently. I haven't chased up the cause of the discontinuity (presumably
a site change).
Burketown got 16.9, 0.2 above its record. Generally speaking it's been
another day of near-misses in Queensland and the NT (although some
of the November records in the NT date from the exceptional November
1981 event - with a max of 15.5 at Tennant Creek on one day, and
11.0 at Barrow Creek (24.4 below average, the largest one-day anomaly
ever recorded in Australia) - and will consequently take some breaking).
Blair Trewin
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023
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 13:23:10 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold morning in Canberra/Perisher minima
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[snip AWS and snowy obs discussion ]
Blair Trewin wrote on Thu, 11 Nov 1999 12:08:32 +1100 (EST):
>
> Let's go all the way and resurrect Clement Wragge's old Mount Koscuisko
> station...(for the uninitiated, there was an observatory established
> on or near - I'm not sure of the exact location - the mountain around
> the turn of the century, which lasted a year or so). Actually, I would
> expect that Crackenback would be reasonably representative of the
> main range (other than being a degree or two warmer than the highest
> parts of it).
Funny you should mention that, Blair. A book entitled "Huts of
the High Country" or maybe "Huts of the Snowy Mountains" (along
those lines) has a good account of Wragge's hut, built by a
"Mawson". Apparently, Wragge himself spent very little time in
the hut which was occupied for just over a year from 1898 sometime.
It was destroyed several years later when fire started after a
lightning strike. Incidently, I'd expect that the static
electricity and lightning problems would plague an AWS installed
in that locale from what the observers decribed as "the windiest,
wettest and coldest place in Australia". From the picture in the
above book, Wragge's hut was almost right on top of Mt. Kosciuszko
(note new spelling) with a summer entrance at ground level and
winter entrance via the roof within a sloping, but mostly vertical
"tunnel". What would be interesting are the official archives of
those observations as it was an official site. I think we would
find some interesting differences between the latter part of the
19th century v/s trends in the late 20th century...
Back onto the Snowy AWS discussion, with a bit of imagination,
I'm sure a proposal could be placed on Kerry Packer's table
(I actually think his son "owns" Persisher Blue) for a network
of decent AWS's in specific locales. The crappy amateur ones they
use at the moment are unmaintained and probably inaccurate. They
certainly give no idea of precipitation which varies greatly across
the area. I think that having such AWS's in altitudes from 1600m to
over 2000m and perhaps higher (main range) will give a much better
indication of the impact of global warming and general mountain
climate trends.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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024
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 22:21:39 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Anthony and All:
I would agree, very probably not a multi-vortex tornado and probably weak
(F0-F1) based on the structural integrity of the damaged buildings.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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025
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 14:19:27 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NPMOC access performance:-(
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Michael
Last I heard was that MSAT had not been launched yet due to technical
problems. I am not sure when it is scheduled to be launched. Helen Pearce
should know.
Mark
----------
>From: Michael Scollay
>To: Aussie Weather
>Subject: aus-wx: NPMOC access performance:-(
>Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 10:47 AM
>
> Has anyone else noticed that since about 18:00 GMT on 03/11/1999,
> the site http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/ has exhibited extremely slow
> access rates from Australia or even elsewhere for that matter.
> The ASWA archive logs show that download rates have dropped from
> an average of 12Kbytes/s to consistently less than 1Kbyte/s. As
> the ASWA archive for gmsc and gmsd downloads the "latest" image
> only, completion times have been 10-30 minutes later making it
> possible that a new image becomes active at the site while the
> old image is still being downloaded. This causes corrupted images
> within the gmsc and gmsd satpic archives. With gmsfull, I have
> initiated a "mirror" type of archive program using the NPMOC
> jtwc archive. This has proved to be robust, however, since
> 03/11/1999, the number of reattempts due to connection timeout
> errors is up to 10 times. There has been no degradation of
> download rates within Australia over the same period making
> the hunt for a local source of high-resolution "free" GMS5
> satpic images more important. As a hunch, I know that a new
> geostationary satellite is being tested, namely "MTSAT", and
> that this testing may well be increasing the load of processing
> at receiving/processing stations, including NPMOC and others.
> See http://www.bom.gov.au/sat/MTSAT/MTSAT.shtml
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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>
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026
From: "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: BOM AWS--cost and use?
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 16:07:11 +1100
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Some issues with rainfall and AWS (automatic weather stations).
I was wondering what the costs are of these devices, running costs,
installation and all.
Also what do are these things actually capable of ie what do they measure
apart from the obvious (or do they?).
How big are these are they? Are they small things or big?
ANd how reliable are these devices? This question occurs to me because of
some inaccuracies between the rainfall of one station 1km away at my
girlfriends house. This is re last monday, where we recieved 30+mm in around
three hours where the AWS recorded 0.2..? This was via an update so maybe
that is where the mistake has occured.
Anyway these questions are entirely harmless. Just some issues that i have
thought to myself.
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
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027
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 15:57:11 +1000
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Hi Anthony & All,
Watching these loops again, I can still see what I thought I saw on Monday,
when I was watching both the Gayndah cell and Esk cell live on radar (the
latter with somewhat more interest as it was headed directly for my place).
That is, the cells remain relatively static, moving only slowly eastwards in
comparison with the overall rain band movement which was rapidly S/SE. (You
could actually see several yellow spots in the rain band move down from the
North to join the pink Esk storm as it neared Mt. Crosby on local radar).
>From this one might deduce that (1) the storms were large enough
(supercellular) to influence and modify the immediate environment, and (2)
the rain band was not related to the storm cells themselves, presumably
deriving from a low level flow only - thus as a cell weakened its identity
may have remained intact but was effectively hidden within the rain band.
When I first heard of the Cedar Pocket event on the news, my first thought
was a "coldie", then I thought about it, recalling the loops I had seen and
decided that the evidence was more in favour of the supercellular kind, thus
I support Leslie's (Lemon) & Harald's analysis.
John.
>snip
Harald Richter wrote:
> The existence of a huge supercell indicates that the general shear
> environment was supportive of supercells and thus mesocylones.
> On such days my first guess would be that tornadoes are
> results from mesocyclones.
I agree here with your assumptions. Only one must wonder when the
actual tornado then forms in a rain band. Is it possible for a
mesocyclone to still form under a rain band? I have uploaded two radar
loops to show the storms. Thanks to Paul Miracki saving these for me
while I was in exams, unfortunately radar was playing up at the time, so
between 0440 and 0600 is missing. But you can see the cells to the NW
of Gympie. Cedar Pocket is just SE of Gympie. The URL's are:
http://bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/IDR501lpa.GIF
http://bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/IDR501lpb.GIF
...
Now my thoughts...
I personally, am of the belief that this was actually still a
supercellular tornado. The presence of a weak mesocyclone may have
still been present, especially since a supercell was present before.
I'm also suggesting that the tornado actually lasted a lot longer than
what we saw, most probabily during the existence of the supercell
itself, and it just continued through the dissipating stage.
None the less, certainly not your 'average' tornado situation though!
Anthony Cornelius
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028
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 17:01:14 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail in the Mountains.
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What was your rainfall to 9am this morning?
don W
Weatherhead wrote:
>
> Hey,
>
> At about 6:45 last night between Springwood and Blaxland, in the Blue
> Mountains, i copped some fairly decent hail from a line of showers that
> moved over us at that time. Their was extremely torrential rain, then a 1
> minute burst of hail. It started off as small grain sized but moved up to
> being 5c size until it stopped. I am not sure exactly which direction the
> cell was moving but i guess NE.
> Also yesterday we had some fairly heavy falls around 12 noon-1pm. These
> showers came from some very dense cu, that seemed to die once off the
> mountains.
> We recieved 12.2mm from that cell in around 20 minutes
>
> Daniel Weatherhead
> weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
>
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029
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More hail at Blackheath
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 07:24:55 GMT
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On Wed, 10 Nov 1999 15:24:42 -0800, Lindsay
wrote:
>Pardon my ignorance Laurier, or, others if you want to help but what
>exactly does the "5.2 degrees in the free atmoshpere at Blackheath
>altitude" mean in the below context?
>
>Taa.
>
>Lindsay Pearce.
>
Hi Lindsay. I was referring to the temperature reported by QF0127
taking off from Sydney Airport, which reported a temp of 5.2 at 3,200
feet, the altitude (approx) of Blackheath. The "free atmosphere" means
the atmosphere without any surface-induced temperature changes --
usually extra heating by day and cooling by night. So, although it was
100km or so away, the QF0127 reading would give a better idea of the
general temperature structure in our area than the reading you or I
would get on the ground.
Laurier
>Laurier Williams wrote:
>>
>> Between 1 and 1.45pm we've had three separate wintry showers of heavy
>> rain and sago to pea-sized hail. Definitely no thunder this time.
>> Large Cu have been around all morning, but didn't look high enough to
>> generate much. It's obviiously still pretty cold upstairs -- here's
>> the latest ACARS data -- freezing level around 5400 feet, and only
>> 5.2C in the free atmosphere at Blackheath's altitude. There's a note
>> on how to read the data at the bottom.
>>
>> >** QF0127
>> >10/11/99 0115 3357S 15110E F001 PS144 176/028
>> >10/11/99 0115 3357S 15110E F004 PS133 184/028
>> >10/11/99 0115 3357S 15110E F006 PS123 185/032
>> >10/11/99 0115 3358S 15110E F009 PS115 184/032
>> >10/11/99 0115 3358S 15110E F012 PS105 189/036
>> >10/11/99 0116 3358S 15110E F015 PS098 190/036
>> >10/11/99 0116 3359S 15110E F018 PS085 189/035
>> >10/11/99 0116 3359S 15110E F020 PS080 195/033
>> >10/11/99 0116 3400S 15110E F024 PS070 194/033
>> >10/11/99 0116 3401S 15110E F026 PS062 196/031
>> >10/11/99 0117 3401S 15110E F029 PS055 196/032
>> >10/11/99 0117 3402S 15110E F032 PS052 201/032
>> >10/11/99 0118 3405S 15110E F048 PS027 208/032
>> >10/11/99 0118 3408S 15110E F064 MS016 222/033
>> >10/11/99 0119 3410S 15107E F081 MS044 199/027
>> >10/11/99 0120 3408S 15102E F099 MS064 212/027
>> >10/11/99 0121 3402S 15100E F118 MS107 209/034
>> >10/11/99 0122 3355S 15056E F138 MS150 199/037
>> >10/11/99 0123 3349S 15053E F160 MS188 227/026
>> >10/11/99 0124 3343S 15050E F183 MS246 213/015
>> >10/11/99 0125 3336S 15046E F208 MS301 232/008
>> >10/11/99 0127 3327S 15036E F236 MS373 188/018
>> >10/11/99 0128 3316S 15024E F266 MS419 198/020
>> >10/11/99 0130 3307S 15013E F300 MS430 232/037
>>
>> How to read ACARS data (which is automatically transmitted from planes
>> -- as they take off/land they're almost as good as a sonde!
>>
>> >** QF0127
>> >10/11/99 0115 3357S 15110E F001 PS144 176/028
>>
>> This is from flight QF0127. This report is at 0115UTC (12.15EDST)
>> today. Plane was at 33.57S and 151.10E. Flight level 001 = 100 feet
>> (FL010 = 1000', FL300=30000' etc). Temp is positive 14.4, wind 176
>> degrees at 28 knots
>>
>> --
>> Laurier Williams
>> Australian Weather Links and News
>> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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030
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Potential next week !!!
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 18:28:40 +1100
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The GASP model is not holding back for next week with a major trough system
for SE Australia. Monday - Tuesday - wednesday all looking like a storm
chasers dream. Pushing the model mentally a Tasman Sea low by Thursday -
Friday is also on the cards. This may push more cold air up form south,
making the storm chase weeks interesting.
I realise that the GASP model has been very erratic at times, but it nailed
last Mondays ECL from 3-4 days out.
It will be interesting to see what NGP has in store, but the PCMDI is site
is down at present.
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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031
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NSW Severe Weather on BoM site
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 07:42:06 GMT
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Lots of new stuff at
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/index.shtml
Laurier
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032
X-Sender: bayns at mail.broad.net.au
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Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 18:07:07 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: 1999 leonids
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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hey all,
am just reminding yas all about the meteor shower, it wasn't so good last year but is spose to be better this year!! the night of nov 17/18 is the night to watch out for which is wednesday night. we'll see how the weather holds up.
btw the only reason it was shithouse last year is cos they timed it wrong, so hopefully it may occur during our night hours so we can the 2000+ show!!
see yas
steve
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033
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 19:05:47 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: "Mini-Thunderstorm" in Brisbane
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Hi all,
I thought I had heard it all until the radio station blamed power
outages in Brisbane from a "mini-thunderstorm" this afternoon. If a
supercell thunderstorm forms a mini-tornado, that does a
mini-thunderstorm form a "nano-tornado?"
We did have a strong power surge though, strong enough to reset the
computer and a tempermental VCR clock. I saw the cell quite well while
driving doing some shopping, it had definite rotation (although only
visibile for a short period of time). It did have a very slight
wrap-effect, but again, did not last very long. When I came back out of
the shops though (5mins later), none of this was noticable at all...
Still an interesting little cell given that shear in the lower level is
so poor, but 500mb and up is excellent.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
034
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 09:32:33 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW Severe Weather on BoM site
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Laurier Williams wrote:
> Lots of new stuff at
> http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/index.shtml
and don't fly the helicopter at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/handbook/spotter2.shtml
(:
Les
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035
X-Originating-IP: [203.102.212.6]
From: "Matt Smith" [ozchase at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Im Back
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 21:43:11 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Everyone
My email has not been working at the world.std.com end of things since
monday, so i decided to get a hotmail account. Hope this one works, sorry if
i have missed any emails that were pointed in my direction.
9 days to the big chase! Start packing!
Matthew Smith
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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036
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
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Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 21:43:20 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1999 leonids
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Wasn't so bad last year here in Adelaide, then again I was watching a night
earlier than what the media had said the expected date was. Also the
Radiant of the storm/shower is located inside the constellation of Leo,
which will be about 15-30 degrees above the horizon at 3am EST on the 18th
of November. But you will probly not see much happen as Australia is not in
the best position for this event, but yes Steve we should see a few, I will
be taking photos of the event so in a few weeks expect another email to the
list.
If it is a storm and you see these things coming from the sky, don't fret
these meteors will burn up in the atmosphere and will not make it to land.
There has not been a record of any Leonid hitting the earths surface to date.
Oh BTW nice mild day here in Adelaide today, a few small Cu around but
generally clear skies. Nice night too clear cold skies, excellent for
observing :)
At 06:07 PM 11/11/99 +1000, you wrote:
>hey all,
>am just reminding yas all about the meteor shower, it wasn't so good last
>year but is spose to be better this year!! the night of nov 17/18 is the
>night to watch out for which is wednesday night. we'll see how the weather
>holds up.
> btw the only reason it was shithouse last year is cos they timed
> it wrong, so hopefully it may occur during our night hours so we can the
> 2000+ show!!
>
>see yas
> steve
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
037
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 11:39:35 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Pocket Thunderstorm?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> Hi all,
>
> I thought I had heard it all until the radio station blamed power
> outages in Brisbane from a "mini-thunderstorm" this afternoon. If a
> supercell thunderstorm forms a mini-tornado, that does a
> mini-thunderstorm form a "nano-tornado?"
Whats that then - a small LP supercell, where the base is smaller than the
height of the thing????
Being on standby there was an article on uk daytime tv [not recommended to
anyone] about a "freak" "mini - tornado" rolling someones
caravan along a beach with the occupants still inside it, who'd just come in
for treatment to some hospital on the south coast of England, they looked
pretty beaten up by this [assume] F0 / T0 event. The caravan came off pretty
badly as well... This is after all the publicity surrounding UK tornadoes
recently.
Les
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
038
From: "John Graham" [gorzzz at optusnet.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Pocket Thunderstorm?
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 22:57:46 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Thursday, November 11, 1999 10:39 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Pocket Thunderstorm?
>
>
> Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> > Hi all,
> >
> > I thought I had heard it all until the radio station blamed power
> > outages in Brisbane from a "mini-thunderstorm" this afternoon. If a
> > supercell thunderstorm forms a mini-tornado, that does a
> > mini-thunderstorm form a "nano-tornado?"
>
> Whats that then - a small LP supercell, where the base is smaller than
the
> height of the thing????
>
>
[snip]
I thought it might be the thunderstorm you have when you're not having a
thunderstorm..........
John
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
039
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 21:59:09 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD Storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
Some quite nice storms just offshore from Brisbane this evening.. there
was lighting every 10 seconds or so for about an hour after about 7pm
tonight.. and sporadic lighting since.. tracker only showed 14 whites or
something at its peak, but 99% of the lighting i saw was in cloud
lightning.. the storms were also very very low topped, and looked like
coastal showers on the sat pics!
These storms formed in a positive Lifted Index area.. tomorrow the
Lifted Index values get down to -3 (small area of -3, respectable area
of -2) SW of Brisbane.. although there are a few things about the
forecast that are a bit iffy, Anthony calculated CAPE to be about 1100
if we get the DP AVN is forecasting and if the temp gets to 26C..
considering the developments tonight, i think there could be some half
decent activity around tomorrow afternoon with any luck..
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
040
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: "Mini-Thunderstorm" in Brisbane
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 22:12:21 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
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Hi Anthony and all,
We had a power surge at B105 which blacked out the entire building for a couple
of seconds. Can't remember exactly what time.
Seems there's some light storm activity producing the odd lightning strike just
off the coast of SE QLD. I crossed the road to get to Toombul shopping centre,
with a clear sky above me, and was shocked when I saw a lovely big flash which
fill a large area of the sky! Most unexpected. That was about 8:30.
Cheers,
Marty.
-----Original Message-----
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Thursday, 11 November 1999 19:29
Subject: aus-wx: "Mini-Thunderstorm" in Brisbane
>Hi all,
>
>I thought I had heard it all until the radio station blamed power
>outages in Brisbane from a "mini-thunderstorm" this afternoon. If a
>supercell thunderstorm forms a mini-tornado, that does a
>mini-thunderstorm form a "nano-tornado?"
>
>We did have a strong power surge though, strong enough to reset the
>computer and a tempermental VCR clock. I saw the cell quite well while
>driving doing some shopping, it had definite rotation (although only
>visibile for a short period of time). It did have a very slight
>wrap-effect, but again, did not last very long. When I came back out of
>the shops though (5mins later), none of this was noticable at all...
>
>Still an interesting little cell given that shear in the lower level is
>so poor, but 500mb and up is excellent.
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>(ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>14 Kinsella St
>Belmont, Brisbane
>QLD, 4153
>Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
>reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
041
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1999 leonids
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 1999 22:27:48 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
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Astro, Steve and all,
Also, last year produced fantastic huge bright fireballs which left magnificent
trails in the sky for a minute afterwards. They were few in number. This years
shower is expected to produce smaller meteors (apparently more like your average
shooting star) but much greater in number. But ultimately, no-one really knows
for sure what will happen. I know I'll be up at 2:30am on the days surrounding
the event to see it for myself!
Hmm.. not really weather related, but while we're on the topic there'll be a
transit of Mercury on the morning of the 16th Nov. Mercury will only just make
it inside the disc of the sun for people in Brisbane and Darwin. Anyone south of
the line joining these cities will only see part of Mercury entering the sun's
disc. Mid-transit is 7:41am AEST (8:41am for daylight savings). I feel it
necessary to mention not to look directly at the sun. Projecting the sun onto a
piece of paper through a small hole should produce a satisfactory result. (Next
Mercurian transit is 2003.)
Cheers,
Marty.
-----Original Message-----
From: astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Thursday, 11 November 1999 21:39
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 1999 leonids
>Wasn't so bad last year here in Adelaide, then again I was watching a night
>earlier than what the media had said the expected date was. Also the
>Radiant of the storm/shower is located inside the constellation of Leo,
>which will be about 15-30 degrees above the horizon at 3am EST on the 18th
>of November. But you will probly not see much happen as Australia is not in
>the best position for this event, but yes Steve we should see a few, I will
>be taking photos of the event so in a few weeks expect another email to the
>list.
>
>If it is a storm and you see these things coming from the sky, don't fret
>these meteors will burn up in the atmosphere and will not make it to land.
>There has not been a record of any Leonid hitting the earths surface to date.
>
>Oh BTW nice mild day here in Adelaide today, a few small Cu around but
>generally clear skies. Nice night too clear cold skies, excellent for
>observing :)
>
>
>
>At 06:07 PM 11/11/99 +1000, you wrote:
>>hey all,
>>am just reminding yas all about the meteor shower, it wasn't so good last
>>year but is spose to be better this year!! the night of nov 17/18 is the
>>night to watch out for which is wednesday night. we'll see how the weather
>>holds up.
>> btw the only reason it was shithouse last year is cos they timed
>> it wrong, so hopefully it may occur during our night hours so we can the
>> 2000+ show!!
>>
>>see yas
>> steve
>>
>> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>> message.
>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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| Document: 991111.htm
Updated: 21 November 1999 |
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