Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx]
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 17 November 1999

    From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]             SE QLD storm photos 16/11
002 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Singleton Supercell, radar tips
003 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]                 Singleton Supercell, radar tips
004 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Radar Archive Feedback Required...
005 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     Some More Information on the December 24, 1989
006 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     Singleton Supercell, radar tips
007 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     Singleton Supercell, radar tips
008 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]        supercell motion
009 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     Singleton Supercell??
010 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           supercell motion
011 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]            Some More Information on the December 24, 1989
012 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Some More Information on the December 24, 1989Redcliffe 
013 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Some More Information on the December 24, 1989Redcliffe 
014 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           Some More Information on the December 24, 1989Redcliffe 
015 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Singleton Supercell, radar tips
016 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]        supercell motion (fwd)
017 Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org]             Yesterday's Storms...
018 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        Storm Chase to start in Victoria?
019 astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]             ASWA Fortnightly Newsletter - 15
020 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.  Radar Archive Feedback Required...
021 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     Singleton Supercell, radar
022 "Matt Smith" [ozchase at hotmail.com]             End of year chase
023 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Radar Archive Feedback Required...
024 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Ships of the desert...
025 Paul.Mossman at DWNSPCRT.OCA.nt.gov.au            End of year chase
026 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.  New Oct/Nov ASWA Archive Requests...
027 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]              Cedar Pocket Tornado Damage Pictures
028 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]           supercell motion (fwd)
029 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]              The Forecast Machine
030 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]         Severe flooding in lower South Island
031 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   supercell motion
032 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]           Chase Cartoon Captions
033 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]           Chase Target??

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
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Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 22:55:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD storm photos 16/11
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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hey,
here's some captures from tonights storm on the gold coast:) yippppeeeee!! plenty of lightning, amout every second! took a couple of good cg's (i hope) with my real camera. 

http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1611991.jpg
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1611992.jpg
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1611993.jpg
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1611994.jpg

quite a while back i emailed the list about a strange green glow during an electrical storm, the discussion disappeared after a brief discussion, but it returned and i got it on tape!!:) it is picture no.4 it didn't come out very green at all did it?..but the tape shows it better.

http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/0711993.jpg <-----and interesting looking thing!

steve

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

002
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 23:10:15 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Singleton Supercell, radar tips
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Hi Ira and all,

I agree with Ira in the fact that radar doesn't show supercells very
well.  At least, not he web based precip radar.  The resolution needs to
be much higher, and the images much smaller.  None the less, you can see
them quite clearly on some cells that I've seen, Oct 13, 1998 had a very
well defined hook echo, this spawned a weak F1 tornado near the city.

One thing that you're quite correct about, is that not all supercells
have hook echos.  And like you, I tend to look at how the storm is
moving + intensity + how long the storm has lasted to try and determine
which cells are supercells, and which aren't.

Typically, in SE QLD, t'storms normally move from SW-NE, at least
anything fairly decent tends to.  Most weaker cells go with the flow of
the lower steering level winds (700/500mb), but stronger cells tend to
travel to the left of the mean steering winds.  Multicells have this
feature, and will tend to move to the left of the steering winds, but
it's not always very obvious, especially if the day is predominantly
multicellular!  However, supercells tend to move very much to the left
of the steering winds, more so then multicells do.  A typicall supercell
path here is NNE, N and sometimes even NNW.  A good example of this, was
the Dec 18, '98 supercell on the NE NSW coast.  This cell was moving
orthogonal to the other present that day.  There was an unconfirmed gust
of 240kmh/150mph from this storm - was anyone ever able to confirm it?

Another example was (again) the Sydney, April 14 one.  It propogated
NNE, and began moving in that direction just as it hit the sea.  Radar
echoes also intensified quickly after this.

But, it always must be remembered that there are exceptions to the
rules.  Some cells on radar may move/look supercellular, and may not be,
and other cells on radar may not look supercellular at all, yet actually
be supercellular.  The Jan 25 Oakey supercell, '99 looked very ordinary
on radar...not even the hint of a BWER on 3D imagery!  Yet it had
definate rotating, and you could see the bands around the mesocyclone. 
A photo of this cell is here:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/anthony/992501j.htm
A snapshot of 3D radar for this cell is here:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/decode1.gif
It reached 15km in height, you can't see it on that, but I have it on
another radar image.

Ira Fehlberg wrote:

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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003
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Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 09:57:22 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Singleton Supercell, radar tips
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Interesting point Anthony,
				The steering winds here are mostly W or there abouts at about 700mb so
that would explain the E tracking direction. However I can recall a couple
of chases which showed later on the radar an isolated supercell tracking E
whilst other cells were still tracking SE-ish, i have the loop somewhere,
ill try to find it. These cells would still be influenced by the same
steering winds tho? Ive definatly seen other days like this also. One day
with a left mover south of Kalgoolie but thats another
story.............Just wondered your thoughts on this. 

			Ira Fehlberg


>Typically, in SE QLD, t'storms normally move from SW-NE, at least
>anything fairly decent tends to.  Most weaker cells go with the flow of
>the lower steering level winds (700/500mb), but stronger cells tend to
>travel to the left of the mean steering winds.  Multicells have this
>feature, and will tend to move to the left of the steering winds, but
>it's not always very obvious, especially if the day is predominantly
>multicellular!  However, supercells tend to move very much to the left
>of the steering winds, more so then multicells do.  A typicall supercell
>path here is NNE, N and sometimes even NNW.  A good example of this, was
>the Dec 18, '98 supercell on the NE NSW coast.  This cell was moving
>orthogonal to the other present that day.  There was an unconfirmed gust
>of 240kmh/150mph from this storm - was anyone ever able to confirm it?


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004
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 00:02:32 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar Archive Feedback Required...
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Hi MS and all,

I think that broad is still fairly important, it gives you a very nice
overview of the entire storm situation, or weather situation currently
at hand.  And then with local, you're able to zoom in to the interesting
areas (if possible).

In regards to archiving them, I know very well it's a lot of work, and
you spend a lot of time doing this, and I know myself, and many others
are extremely appreciative of this!

I'd really like to see the capital city broads stay though, but I was
wondering how long does it take to add/remove radars from your archive
script?  The reason why I ask, is because I was wondering is it possible
to have some radars archiving on a seasonal basis?  For example, there's
not going to be much need to save Darwin broad, or even local in the dry
season!  Or Brisbane broad (and maybe even local) during winter.  The
same goes for many other tropical + sub-tropical radars.  Yet in summer,
there may be some radars that aren't going to be needed much, and these
could be turned off during these periods.  Of course, if something does
happen, then it'd be up to some one who wants that radar, to contact you
and request to have the radar arhival process put back on for that
particular radar(s).

I know that it'd be nice to have them all on archive, but this is
obviously not feasible.  But having them on seasonal, and on 'standby'
would be much better than not having some archive at all.

As for radar requests, I'd actually like to see Gympie local,
Charleville broad/local, and Longreach broad/local put into the
archives.  During winter, these could all be turned off, or on 'standby'
- as things very rarely happen out there.  I wouldn't mind some NW WA
radar archived either, they get some nice storms out there with their
40C+ temps, and mid 20 DP's.

Michael Scollay wrote:

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

005
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 11:01:16 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Some More Information on the December 24, 1989
  Redcliffe Tornadic  T'storm
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Anthony and all:

Two comments.  First, I would discount the report of a 77,000 ft storm top.
 This in normally the result of what are called "radar sidelobes" or a
radar artifact.  The radar antenna sidelobes are caused by a portion of the
radiated power found adjacent to the 3dB, half power, main beam.  These
side lobes are usually about 23 to 26 dB down and are immediately adjacent
to the main beam but separated by an angle of about 2 to 5 degrees.  If the
storm has particularly large reflectivity aloft (as hail storms almost
certainly do) and the radar is within about 120 km from the storm, the
sidelobes will illuminate these high reflectivities aloft and produce what
appears as a narrow "spike" protruding upward 10 to 15,000 ft above the
actual, radar, main-beam-detected, storm top.  In all probability, the
actual precipitation storm summit will not exceed ~ 65,000 ft.

Second, the storm is not a thing, it is an atmospheric process.  Storm
motion is caused by essentially two components.  The first is translation
and is caused by the storm "steering wind" or the density weighted, mean
wind in the cloud baring layer.  The second component is the updraft
"propagation".  Propagation is essentially new updraft development.  It can
be episodic or continuous in nature.  New updraft development is a function
of the boundary layer convergence attributed to external features such as
synoptic fronts, wind shift lines, and even sea breeze boundaries.  In
addition, there are "internal storm features" that control motion such as
the orientation and position of the low-level storm gust front, a mid-level
mesocyclone, and the effects of environmental wind shear as it interacts
with the existing storm updraft.  Both the mid-level mesocyclone and
ambient wind shear create lower pressure on the updraft storm flanks in
mid-levels which, in turn, induce new updraft and updraft propagation. 
Because of the low-level gust front position and for other reasons in the
southern hemisphere, these forces are effective in inducing new updraft on
the northern storm flank.

Northward movement along the coast could have been related to the sea
breeze, in part, but I am sure there were other influences also.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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006
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 11:30:44 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Singleton Supercell, radar tips
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Ira Fehlberg stated the following:

>    Ive found that the radar never shows up supercells good, in fact i
dont
> think ive ever seen one here that did have the hook. On a few chases ive
> done, ive got back and looked at the radar and the SC was actually the
> crappiest looking one! Unless they are huge and even then the rain may
not

Studies have found that supercells come in a variety of sizes, types, and
with some variation in shape.  The vertical  distribution with height of
CAPE and wind shear will often dictate the size and depth of the storm. 
However, normally they are rather distinctive in appearance and more highly
reflective than non supercellular storms.  But, as indicated yesterday,
simply having the radar portrayal of the low-level precipitation echo is
insufficient for supercell identification.  One must examine the three
dimensional echo distribution and structure before a more definitive
identification can be made.  Even then, if the storm is in its collapse
phase, it may be essentially impossible to radar identify the storm. 
Additionally, the characteristics of the radar, its siting, distance to the
storm, and radar viewing angle are all extremely important also.

Hook echoes often are not apparent or if they are, they occur during a
minority of the storms lifetime.  Moreover, the radar's characteristics,
distance to the storm (and the related aspect ratio and radar horizon), and
the viewing angle are all very critical here.

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com

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007
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 11:36:32 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Singleton Supercell, radar tips
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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There is one rule in meteorology that is *never* violated, there are no
exceptions!, that is that there are always exceptions to the rules,  [S]

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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008
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: aus-wx: supercell motion
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 19:26:03 +0000 (GMT)
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To:  All supercell connoisseurs

Low-precip supercells go well with a dry 1994 Chardonnay
as a complementing scintillating flavour of ...

What I really wanted to say is in response to Anthony's
query

[snip] #1]
#Other interesting cells will be the 'famous' Sydney April 14 supercell,
#that followed the coast northwards.  A believe 2 recent very large
#supercells in NE NSW have also followed this pattern (ie, moved
#Northwards just along the coast).
#
#It all seems too much of a coincidence for me.  Does anyone care to
#comment on why they believe this happens?  Perhaps it has something to
#do with the way a storm can tap into hot, humid air, and warm moist air
#behind a cooler air boundary?
[snip] #2]

My first gut reaction is "seabreeze boundary:"  The storm might
regard the sea breeze front as a pre-existing along-coast boundary
that already lifts moist warm air.  This would give the storm an 
excuse to *develop* (rather than *move*, as Les pointed out) that way.

In the absence of such low-level structure, here is a general
recipe I invite you to TEST.  The two gentlemen who
came up with it (Rasmussen and Straka) have seen the odd cloud or two
and did NOT make this up late at night under some pub table (I think):

1.  Connect the BL wind with the 4 km wind with a straight line.
2.  Find the point 60% of the distance along this line.
3.  Draw a line 8 m/s in length orthogonal to the right of #1, attached at #2.
4.  The motion is at the end of this line (#3), with an error typically < 4 m/s.

WAAAAITTTT:  in the southern hemisphere I recommend changing #3 to
"8 m/s in length orthogonal to the *left* ".
It is obvious that this recipe is 100% empirical and can (currently)
not be derived analytically from the Navier-Stokes equations (apologies to all
dynamicists and purists on this list).

Harald

-- 
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273	fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
------------------------------------------------------
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009
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 14:39:58 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Singleton Supercell??
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Dave and all:

David Croan wrote the following:

> stronger westerly component - very chaotic sky indeed. I imagine the 
> limiting factor for supercells around here today would be buoyancy rather

> than wind shear - so based on the very cold upper temps which you
mentioned 
> to me I suspect conditions may have been favourable for supercells.
> 

Interestingly enough, supercells do not necessarily require high CAPE.  At
times, intense updrafts can develop with only very modest CAPE (~ 500) 
when very strong environmental shear is present.  As I mentioned in an
earlier post, the environmental shear, working on the storm itself, can
create very strong lift and induce intense updraft on the flank of the
existing updraft.  However, supporting low-level forcing  must be present
to sustain and augment the initial updraft.

Les


************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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010
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 21:09:22 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion
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Harald Richter wrote:

> To:  All supercell connoisseurs
>
> Low-precip supercells go well with a dry 1994 Chardonnay
> as a complementing scintillating flavour of ...

Try your Jacobs Creek with hail 

Surely a bad year for wines in the Hunter Valley or the Barossa is a good year for
golfball hail 


anyhow, to add fuel to the fire, how is it that in Oklahoma, supercells travel in a
NE direction (or thereabouts), yet in the southern hemisphere the still travel in a
NE direction even though cyclonic direction is reversed? At least we won't go the
wrong way...

Someone help me in this quandry.

Les(UK)

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011
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 07:49:58 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some More Information on the December 24, 1989
 Redcliffe Tornadic   T'storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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[snip...all great stuff for someone stuck in stratocu alley ;)]

>I remember seeing a post on a US wx list one time about an AU supercell
>over the coast, and they described this as strange - which lead me to
>the assumption that the US doesn't receive many 'coastline supercells' -
>is this true?
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association

s'cuse my ignorance Anthony, I know about HP and LP supercells, but what's
an AU supercell??

Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2


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012
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 07:40:55 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some More Information on the December 24, 1989Redcliffe 
 Tornadic   T'storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Phil,

Phil Bagust wrote:

> s'cuse my ignorance Anthony, I know about HP and LP supercells, but what's
> an AU supercell??

AU = Australia :)

So, I guess an AU supercell (coincidently, when you take the initials of
all of these words, you get AUS, the 'official' three letter
abbreviation for Australia, an omen? :) would obviously be translated
into a "freak large thunderstorm capable of producing copious numbers of
destructive mini-cyclones and mini-tornadoes."
:-)

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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013
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 07:36:43 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some More Information on the December 24, 1989Redcliffe 
 Tornadic  T'storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Leslie,

"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> 
> Anthony and all:
> 
> Two comments.  First, I would discount the report of a 77,000 ft storm top.
>  This in normally the result of what are called "radar sidelobes" or a
> radar artifact.  The radar antenna sidelobes are caused by a portion of the
> radiated power found adjacent to the 3dB, half power, main beam.  These
> side lobes are usually about 23 to 26 dB down and are immediately adjacent
> to the main beam but separated by an angle of about 2 to 5 degrees.  If the
> storm has particularly large reflectivity aloft (as hail storms almost
> certainly do) and the radar is within about 120 km from the storm, the
> sidelobes will illuminate these high reflectivities aloft and produce what
> appears as a narrow "spike" protruding upward 10 to 15,000 ft above the
> actual, radar, main-beam-detected, storm top.  In all probability, the
> actual precipitation storm summit will not exceed ~ 65,000 ft.

Actually - I'm not sure whether or not this storm was detected from
radar.  The Brisbane radar was knocked out, and I'm not sure which
radars actually had 3D radar 10 years ago, my thought would be not many
considering heights were only given in the QLD Severe T'storm database
in Decemeber.  None the less, when James and I found out this info
(77,000ft) a few months ago, the BoM confirmed this.  But I'm not sure
exactly how this was measured, possibly it was derived using satellite
imagery.  I think there are a few storms that had heights of 20km+ and
tops reaching -100C.  Actually - just thinking of it, (our) 3D radar
only goes up to 20km/66000ft so it couldn't have been radar.

> Second, the storm is not a thing, it is an atmospheric process.  Storm
> motion is caused by essentially two components.  The first is translation
> and is caused by the storm "steering wind" or the density weighted, mean
> wind in the cloud baring layer.  The second component is the updraft
> "propagation".  Propagation is essentially new updraft development.  It can
> be episodic or continuous in nature.  New updraft development is a function
> of the boundary layer convergence attributed to external features such as
> synoptic fronts, wind shift lines, and even sea breeze boundaries.  

Thank you for your clarification on my technical error here.  As a
general rule, I (and many others) tend to say "move" to avoid
confusion.  But apologies for any misleading information given to people
on this.  A thunderstorm is indeed, a continually evolving process.

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 22:17:04 +0000
014
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some More Information on the December 24, 1989Redcliffe 
 Tornadic   T'storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Anthony Cornelius wrote:

> Hi Phil,
>
> Phil Bagust wrote:
> 
> > s'cuse my ignorance Anthony, I know about HP and LP supercells, but what's
> > an AU supercell??
>
> AU = Australia :)

Always Understated (:

Les

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015
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 08:26:33 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Radar movement (was) Re: aus-wx: Singleton Supercell, radar tips
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Ira,

Ira Fehlberg wrote:
> 
> Interesting point Anthony,
>                                 The steering winds here are mostly W or there abouts at about 700mb so
> that would explain the E tracking direction. 

The winds are fairly similar here too - but can come from the NW to the
SW.  I prefer WSW-SW steering winds, because a) they're often colder, b)
they give a near 180 degree backing with height wind structure (when
alligned with a NE wind ahead of the front).

However I can recall a couple
> of chases which showed later on the radar an isolated supercell tracking E
> whilst other cells were still tracking SE-ish, i have the loop somewhere,
> ill try to find it. These cells would still be influenced by the same
> steering winds tho? I

During this day, I'd say that the winds were different than the 'usual,'
possibly with NW steering winds.  This would mean the "normal" t'storm
cells would pretty much move with the steering winds.

The supercell that moved E-wards would have been moving (or as Leslie
mentioned before, technically propogating) to the left of the steering
winds.

It'd be great if you can dig up the loop for all to see!  I dug one up
from last year, for the Dec 18, NE NSW supercell.  It's here:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/IDR531lpaa.gif

You can clearly see the cell on the coast near Grafton moving N-NNE. 
All the other cells are tracking E-ENE.

The other loop I dug up was of the Jan 25 supercell, this can be found
here:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/Jan25.gif

You can clearly see that other muck near Warwick moving NE, and the
intense cell moving N'wards.  This cell lasted about 4 hours all up.

ve definatly seen other days like this also. One day
> with a left mover south of Kalgoolie but thats another
> story.............Just wondered your thoughts on this.
> 
                         Ira Fehlberg

The other thing I also look for/take notice of are splitting cells with
left/right movers.  This has been a prominent feature in quite a few
cells in SE QLD.  Especially on Nov 29, 1992.  There were 5 supercells
all up, 4 formed from splitting cells.  One of these gave 8cm hail
(there's video footage of this bouncing off a trampoline, Jimmy would
love this!  If everyone gets up to Brisbane on the chase, I'll see if
James can show the tape this is on.)  2 confirmed tornadoes were
reported, the first, an F3 was formed from a left mover (I believe), and
gave 8cm hail.  The other tornado, actually formed from a more isolated
thunderstorm, and was an F4.  I can't really release these photos on the
net, as I don't have permission to do so.  But if people want to see
these, I could send them to you privately.  Cricket ball hail was also
reported from this cell.  Both the left movers/right movers lasted for a
lengthy period of time - generally, most right movers tend to die
relatively quickly here.

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane 
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

016
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 22:38:41 +0000 (GMT)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4ME+ PL39 (25)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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----- Forwarded message from Les Crossan -----

anyhow, to add fuel to the fire, how is it that in Oklahoma, supercells travel in a
NE direction (or thereabouts), yet in the southern hemisphere the still travel in a
NE direction even though cyclonic direction is reversed? At least we won't go the
wrong way...

Someone help me in this quandry.

Les(UK)

----- End of forwarded message from Les Crossan -----

Could it be as simple as this:

NH:  SW "steering flow" ahead of average trough;  supercells are
     right deviant,  so they move ENE
SH:  NW "steering flow" ahead of average trough;  supercells are
     left deviant, so they move ESE

I both cases there is mainly an eastward motion.
Could this really be it???

Harald


-- 
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273	fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
------------------------------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

017
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 16:56:55 -0600 (CST)
From: Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org]
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Yesterday's Storms...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yes, I think yesterday's storms, just north of Sydney, formed under the so
called "right exit region" of the jet stream, judging from the NGP 200mb
winds.  Also, there was a particularly sharp upper trough moving through
with the Wagga morning sounding indicating 500 temps at Wagga down to
-25c, down 5c on the previous day (Wagga was the closest I could find to
a clear-air sounding).
I believe there is a theory that HP supercells favour movement along an
upper trough boundary.
- Paul G.

On Tue, 16 Nov 1999, Leslie R. Lemon wrote:

> Dave and all:
> 
> David Croan wrote the following:
> 
> > stronger westerly component - very chaotic sky indeed. I imagine the 
> > limiting factor for supercells around here today would be buoyancy rather
> 
> > than wind shear - so based on the very cold upper temps which you
> mentioned 
> > to me I suspect conditions may have been favourable for supercells.
> > 
> 
> Interestingly enough, supercells do not necessarily require high CAPE.  At
> times, intense updrafts can develop with only very modest CAPE (~ 500) 
> when very strong environmental shear is present.  As I mentioned in an
> earlier post, the environmental shear, working on the storm itself, can
> create very strong lift and induce intense updraft on the flank of the
> existing updraft.  However, supporting low-level forcing  must be present
> to sustain and augment the initial updraft.
> 
> Les
> 
> 
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Phone: 816-373-3533
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 


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018
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Chase to start in Victoria?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 10:04:15 +1100 (EST)
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> Hi all, pretty cold down south today with a top temp in Melbourne of =
> only 15.8c. There was some isolated hail (small) in some suburbs this =
> morning and several centimetres of snow at Mt Baw Baw. Currently 6.00pm =
> it is 13c in Kilsyth Dew Pt 4c. Well the forecast charts are looking =
> good for later this week with a low presure trough expected to develop =
> over eastern SA on Friday and move in western Victoria on Saturday. BOM =
> is forecasting isolated showers and thunderstorms in northern Victoria =
> on Friday, these are forecast to become more widespread Saturday to =
> affect all districts. At this stage it looks like the trough will still =
> be in the vicinity on Sunday with more showers and storms across =
> Victoria. Looks like the Big Chase may start off down south!! What does =
> everyone else think? Dane (Kilsyth) Melbourne. ASWA Victoria. =20

If GASP is anything to go by, anywhere in inland eastern Australia 
looks like it has potential from Saturday right through to Wednesday.
I'd expect the activity in Victoria to be reasonably short-lived -
we're more likely to see steady rain here, I'd think.

For what it's worth, the GASP precip progs have peak 24-hour falls 
of 73mm in western Victoria on Sunday, then up around 90 in eastern SA/
western NSW in Wednesday (as a new low develops over the inland 
south-east). A word of warning - these are not bad for identifying 
regions which are likely to have rain/no rain, but the amounts are
problematical at best.

The UKMO develops Sunday's low a bit further north than GASP does.
I'll be interested to see what the new EC run has to say when it comes
out around lunchtime.

Blair Trewin

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019
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
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Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 09:47:30 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Fortnightly Newsletter - 15
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Hi There,

Welcome to the fifteenth edition of the Australian Severe Weather Association on-line newsletter. I hope you all enjoy it and any thoughts or comments can be send to " Kathryn Jolly at astrolady99 at netscape.net " also please don't forget if there is any information regarding the Australian Severe Weather Association that you would normally send to the list, please send it to me instead for inclusion into the newsletter. That is what it is here for.

Happy reading


General News


ASWA Newsletter

Deepest apologies for sending this 3 days late.  It had totally slipped my mind from working 6 days a week (nearly 10 hrs a day) at my new job.  Sunday was spent catching up on some much needed sleep.  Sorry for any inconvience caused.  I will stick a post it note on the computer to remind me about the next issue ;-)

Also just a reminder for and to let the new people to the ASWA that they can send any information into the newsletter that they would like to from births, marriage, birthdays, etc - your latest weather news - and also adding a New Segment - Jokes  (please keep them clean and reasonably small)  Want to try and add a bit of light humor to the newsletter.  It will start from the next newsletter so have your jokes and any other details you want added by November 28.

This newsletter will be sent via a mass email system to all ASWA members as soon as I can access it.


Photo Comp

The photo comp is to be updated late on the 1st of November but the last months photos are still there. So if you have not voted, now is your time to do so.

Submissions are open for the next Decembers competition.

The Theme - Storm/cloud structure - Shelf clouds/gust fronts/squall lines/Mammatus/anvils/RFD

Cut off date for submissions is the 26th of November 1999.Please provide an explanation (Only short) about your photo so that it makes it interesting to read and please make it 400 pixels across (or larger and I will scale it back).I have seen some beauty precipitation photos on peoples sites in Australia or you may have one that you have never shown to publicly before that you could submit.

Further details are available from http://www.severeweather.asn.au/photo

Please email submissions to webmaster at severeweather.asn.au

Last months winners can be congratulated at http://www.severeweather.asn.au/photo/photos.htm


Cyclone Bid

You can view the results of the cyclone bid at the following URL, http://strikeone.com.au/cyclone/results.htm There is no winner as yet, as there has been no cyclone in the Western parts of Australia


Weather News

Victoria

Jane O'Neill has a minute by minute explanation of the cells that went through Sale on the 6th of November 1999, if you want to read all about it you can do so at http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/6_11_99.htm don't forget to check out the rest of the Melbourne Storm Chase Page while you are there.  The following is one of the last paragraphs from her chase report.
Meanwhile, in Leopold, as the low pressure system tracked from western Victoria to central Bass Strait, the system generated a NE tracking squall line across the coast, travelling at 60-70kmh & generating a spectacular squall line gust front.  It produced 5 minutes of heavy rain before moving off to the NE and was followed by a rather sharp increase in surface pressure.

State Meetings

South Australia - Northern Territory

Next meeting - Friday 3th December, 8pm - VENUE UNDECIDED WILL LET YOU KNOW

Victoria - Tasmania

Next official meeting - Feb 12, 2000 - Pancake Parlour - Doncaster Rd, Doncaster - 9am

New South Wales

Next Meeting -  A combined meeting of ASWA and AMOS Weatherwatch Group will meet on the Wednesday15th December 1999. This is planned to allow for video footage from the End of year Chase to be shown and also to allow different people from both groups to meet. A dinner is planned beforehand for those interested.
When details come to hand, more information will be posted through.

Queensland

QLD ASWA Christmas Party  -  Dec 12  -  Please have forms submitted by Nov 30 if you haven't done so already

Western Australia

Next Meeting -




020 Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 10:29:12 +1100 From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au] Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar Archive Feedback Required... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anthony Cornelius wrote on Wed, 17 Nov 1999 00:02:32 +1000: > > Hi MS and all, > > I think that broad is still fairly important...[snip] Agreed. It shall stay...currently all capital cities, though some are not as reliable as others. > ... I'd really like to see the capital city broads stay though, > but I was wondering how long does it take to add/remove radars > from your archive script? About 15 seconds (see #Notes below). However with more and more downloads, the possibility that a given 10-min download of all BoM radar images failing in a sequential manner increases. This means a bit more work to break up the "cron" jobs into smaller jobs so that they can be conducted in parallel and thus decrease the risk of failure. The other matter I need to consider is the firewall http-proxy allocation. The more downloads spawned, the more likely it becomes that http-proxies will become congested. Telstra firewall people don't like this so I don't want t become a http-proxy "hog". > ...The reason why I ask, is because I was wondering is it > possible to have some radars archiving on a seasonal basis? This is a good idea provided our storms follow predictable seasons. A better strategy is to archive everything and just throw away those images will little activity of interest. While this idea is also sound, the implementation is flawed since the only parameter that a my software understands today is file size. I've got some gif images that barely make the minimum file size criteria that have one really decent severe storm in them... that is one decent blob of red...How I'd love to get some software that is able to analyse a gif/jpg file for the amount and type of colour present...It is impossible to browse every image manually or in an animation to do this. Such an advance would be a great asset to the archive making it an "intelligent" archive. [snip] ...Of course, if something does happen, then it'd be up > to some one who wants that radar, to contact you and request > to have the radar arhival process put back on for that > particular radar(s). The trouble with this is that more often it is after the event that people realise that radar is needed. If we could predict an event with such reliability soas to allow the turning-on and off of specific radar archives, then we'd be doing the BoM out of business:-) [snip] Note#: Adding more stuff to the archive... Adding more stuff to the archive involves adding another line with source and destination file names with embedded archive instructions to a configuration file. This archive instructions enable... 1) A total mirror of source directory. 2) A filtered mirror of source directory with optional rename. 3) Archival of source file to another "latest" filename e.g. 19991107... 4) Archival of source file to file of same name or optional rename. I also have scripts which require a high degree of customisation that can autogenerate stuff like the entire AVN run of plots from 00Z to +72Z from READY. Other sites would require a similar degree of sophisticated customisation. For example, to get AVN maps from READY... 1) Hit 1 downloads the latest model run information. This determines whether it is worth updating or not. 2) Hit 2 configures the AVN map plot generator. A result file is returned. 3) Hit 3 analyses the result file to find the source image. This image is then downloaded. 4) For each image, 2 & 3 are repeated until the model run is completed to user specification e.g +36hr limit on AVN and +144hr limit on MRF. The defaults are for the full model run (AVN +72hrs, MRF +288hrs normally). When generating metrograms, one further hit is done to download the metrogram data in text format. This is later post-processed to generate improved metrograms for a given site. As a backgound task, I'm looking at adding more post processing to info such as BoM national Obs from SILO to present this info in a more usable form as historical obs on request for a given site. Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 021 Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 20:22:24 -0500 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Subject: Radar movement (was) Re: aus-wx: Singleton Supercell, radar tips To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id UAA22660 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anthony and all: Now I understand how I may have confused folks. What I was trying to say in the earlier post was the the following: Storm motion = Translation (steering wind) + propagation Thus, there is nothing wrong with using the term storm motion or movement. That is exactly what it is. Sorry for the confusion. Relative to storm splitting. That is associated updraft propagation which in turn is associated with the environmental shear and wind profiles. Here I will reproduce an off line exchange I had with Harald Richter who asked me to explain how the shear profile induces strong vertical air motion (updraft in this case): > This is really nice stuff. Thank you, I appreciate that. I have a two-day seminar that deals with radar theory, radar limitations, 88D products, and algorithms, and with convective storms. The first day is radar stuff the second day is convection and radar application and identification of severe storms, etc. Much of the areas I have commented on come from the seminar. However, the source for the dynamics section is in part, Klemp (1987), Rotunno and Klemp (1982), and more recent papers. > How does strong shear force vertical motion in this case? > Is the vertical vorticity at the updraft/ambient flow interface > a dominant player here? It deals primarily with the turning of the shear vector from the surface upward. When an updraft interacts with vertically sheared flow, a high to low horizontal dynamic pressure gradient develops across the updraft in the direction of the shear vector at each level. The horizontal pressure gradient is a function of the shear vector and the gradient of vertical motion associated with the updraft. This is independent of the upward pressure gradient induced through vorticity amplification in mid-levels that you make reference to. Rotunno and Klemp (1982) is a good source for the details. If you take a look at the typical shear vectors you will find that dynamically, from low-levels up through mid-levels, there is induced a perturbation pressure gradient directed upward on the updraft flank. Here I will add the following in explanation of storm splitting. Storm splitting occurs in environments where the flow and shear profiles are unidirectional. The vorticity production within the updraft is associated with the stream wise and cross wise horizontal vorticity components relative to the shear vectors. Initially, in a unidirectional flow and shear profile, all horizontal vorticity in the storm relative inflow is cross wise. This horizontal vorticity is induced by the storm relative shear vectors and is always orthogonal to the shear vector and to the left. However, even with all vorticity production is cross wise, owing to tilting of this vorticity by the updraft, counter rotation is induced on opposite storm flanks in mid-levels. This vorticity production enhances upward air motion (new updraft, propagation) on these opposite sides of the updraft due to the vertically directed perturbation pressure gradient. As the propagation begins on the updraft flank and continues, storm motion is pulled off the hodograph and more of the vorticity becomes streamwise which is much more efficient in producing updraft turning. Thus storm splitting occurs which results in counter rotating supercells, one deviating to the left and another to the right of the environmental flow. However, when the shear vectors turn with height in the northern hemisphere in a clockwise fashion the cyclonic member of the split pair is enhanced. Again, vertical pressure gradients form across the updraft in the direction of the shear vector at each level. When the shear vector turns clockwise with height, vertical pressure gradients promote ascending motion on the right flank and descending motion on the left flank. These vertical pressure gradients reinforce the pressure gradients that were induced by rotation on the right flank but they diminish them on the left. In this way, with a turning hodograph or shear profile, storm splitting is inhibited or prohibited. Of course, in the southern hemisphere, these relationships are reversed. I would encourage the group to obtain those papers I have referenced if you want a better, more lucid explanation. [S] Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Phone: 816-373-3533 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 022 X-Originating-IP: [203.102.212.6] From: "Matt Smith" [ozchase at hotmail.com] To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: End of year chase Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 12:38:20 EST Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Everyone. I will not be able to attend the end of year chase. I went to a seminar that i got selected to go to for a new job today, there was an aptitude test which i passed, and i have made it to the interview stage, which will be held either next Wednesday or Thursday. I am extremely pissed off about this, as i have been looking forward to it for almost 9 months. But this is a sacrifice i have to make if i am to get a job earning twice, possibly 3 times as much as what i am getting now. I apologise to everyone who is attending, most of all to James Harris, who i was going to chase with for the extremely short notice. Any questions please email me personally. Matt Smith ex chase co-ordinator. *sigh* ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 023 Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 08:57:53 -0800 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar Archive Feedback Required... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Where do we get it? Lindsay P. >Andrew Puddifer wrote: > On the subjest of windscreens, I can recommend a product called RainX for car >windows....it is great in heavy rain, and > it also seems to make it a lot easier to get the bugs off the glass too. > However, some people don't like it..probably a personal thing...but I can recommend >it! > > Regards, > Andrew Puddifer. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 024 Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 08:52:22 -0800 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ships of the desert... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Very true Michael, I studied theology for a number of years (I'm not religious) and such license was a common occurrence in the so called biblical times. I don't want to tread on the toes of the religious/Christian amongst us, suffice to say, John Shelby Spong is great for a modern day look at such events as you alluded to below, ie: the ark story etc. Many of the biblical accounts were oral stories passed down over generations, a little like our aboriginal stories/legends etc. Symbolic? Probably. They still had very important meaning, nonetheless. I think Shelby Spong even has some interesting views on the weather of biblical times, ie: The simplistic views of meteorology of the day etc. Fascinating stuff. Lindsay Pearce PS: Hope I haven't aggravated the Christians among us of conservative mindset, I respect your views, well sorta > Then there's "The Great Flood" of biblical proportions with Noah's > ark said to be found some considerable way up Mt Ararat... > > P.S. This is not intended to be offensive or to start a debate. > It is designed to point out that even with today's technology, > we can still get the positions of ships and aircraft disasterously > wrong as Air New Zealand aircrew found out far too late when trying > to negotiate around Mt Erebus in Antartica:-( Is it not surprising > that biblical accounts could also suffer from an excess of > "jounalistic license" and "navigation errors"? > > Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 025 From: Paul.Mossman at DWNSPCRT.OCA.nt.gov.au To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: End of year chase Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 11:43:22 +0930 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id VAA00190 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Matt - I know its off -weather but how bout you make arrangements just to come back for those days? Seems to be a compromise I think. Rgds, Paul. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 026 Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 14:18:28 +1100 From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au] Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: New Oct/Nov ASWA Archive Requests... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com By COB Friday 19 November, I will be removing the on-line ASWA archives for Oct/Nov and saving them to tape. This will allow the additional archive of more narrow-scale radar and a rescheduling of tape backup/archive procedures in response to the increased download amount. As a consequence and if you havn't done so already, please lodge your ASWA archive request before COB Fri 19/11/1999. Format your request as follows (if possible): UTC time is currently 11 hrs behind Australian Eastern Standard Summer time. Example: syd256 199911061100 199911070300 suspect SC near Penrith gmsd 199911061100 199911070300 crop to Sydney environ Current archives are: ade256 ade1024 Adelaide narrow and broad-scale radar bri256 bri1024 Brisbane narrow and broad-scale radar gra256 Grafton narrow-scale radar mel256 mel1024 Melbourne narrow and broad-scale radar per256 per1024 Perth narrow and broad-scale radar syd256 syd1024 Sydney narrow and broad-scale radar tas256 tas1024 Wtakone narrow and broad-scale radar gmsc gmsd gmsfull NPMOC GMS5 satpic. ausmsl BoM hand-drawn MSL Analysis charts. Cropped satpics are converted from jpg to gif. Please keep in mind that I don't know every place in Australia so unless its some place large and obvious, please give me the Latitude and Longitude of the place at the centre of the crop you want. Given NPMOC poor performance of late, there are many missing gmsc and gmsd images. If the event you're after is short-lived, please tell me the time and location of maximum intensity. If the most appropriate gmsc or gmsd image is not available, then I'll crop the required image from gmsfull. The gmsfull image is only slightly worse than the gmsc/gmsd and more than adequate for printing in, say, Storm News. I now have a script that selectively "mirrors" the jtwc IR2 gmsfull archive at NPMOC that hasn't missed an image in the 3 weeks since it started. Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 027 Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 13:21:42 +1100 From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Cedar Pocket Tornado Damage Pictures Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Ben from Brisbane here.. I have added the pictures we took of the damge caused by the November 8 Cedar Pocket Tornado to BSCH.. all these pictures were taken with a digital camera.. http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/recentevents.htm While the damage to the house obviously shows up well.. the tree damage did not look as good on film.. Anthony took a roll of shots with his SLR camera so they could possibly come out slightly better.. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 028 From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: RE: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd) Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 10:57:46 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I think you have to look at the relative latitude as this has a lot to do with the direction of steering winds, angle of troughs and cold fronts. While supercells storms in QLD tend to travel in a NE direction, as you go further South, this tends easterly and then SE in Victoria & SW W.A. Of course, there will be a great many exceptions. But I have found it remarkable how the vast majority of Tornado tracks in the U.S when viewed over many years, are very closely aligned parallel on a SW to NE track. It has been argued on this list over what influence, if any, the coriolis force has encouraging and tightening rotation. Surfice it to mention that if it does play a part then it would manifest on Northward moving storms in the Northern hemispshere and Southward moving storms in the Southern hemisphere as latitude increases. So you would expect to see tornado paths NW to SE in the Southern hemisphere. This is probably true in W.A. & Vic, but not apparently so in QLD. Nevertheless I tend to treat SE moving storms when they do occur with rear updrafts, with great respect. John. >snip ----- Forwarded message from Les Crossan ----- anyhow, to add fuel to the fire, how is it that in Oklahoma, supercells travel in a NE direction (or thereabouts), yet in the southern hemisphere the still travel in a NE direction even though cyclonic direction is reversed? At least we won't go the wrong way... Someone help me in this quandry. Les(UK) ----- End of forwarded message from Les Crossan ----- Could it be as simple as this: NH: SW "steering flow" ahead of average trough; supercells are right deviant, so they move ENE SH: NW "steering flow" ahead of average trough; supercells are left deviant, so they move ESE I both cases there is mainly an eastward motion. Could this really be it??? Harald -- ------------------------------------------------------ Harald Richter Postdoctoral Research Associate Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences State University of New York at Albany 1400 Washington Avenue Albany, NY 12222 phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494 spatz at atmos.albany.edu http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html ------------------------------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 029 Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 13:50:41 +1100 From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: The Forecast Machine Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Ben from Brisbane here.. For those that have yet to see the latest addition to BSCH, check it out.. http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/forecastmachine/index.htm It is not yet fully complete, with no SA forecast map yet (SA BOM had a terrible district boundary map on the web - i'm trying to chase up another one), but it is usable.. I have put 50+ hours of work into this, and i would appreciate any links that could be made to it.. It is mainly for overseas people.. i have a hard time obtaining forecasts for some USA areas at times.. or i did at first.. and i would have loved a map where you could just click on an area to see the forecasts for that area.. we didn't have anything like that for Australia so i thought what the hell.. and here it is.. Also.. the severe weather potential section of BSCH is now operational (has been for a few weeks actually).. http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/weatherpotential.htm There are a number of updates and additions around BSCH that i have not emailed any lists about including a new JAVA chat linked to from the main menu.. Lindsay wrote: > > Where do we get it? > > Lindsay P. > > >Andrew Puddifer wrote: > > > On the subjest of windscreens, I can recommend a product called RainX for car >windows....it is great in heavy rain, and > > it also seems to make it a lot easier to get the bugs off the glass too. > > However, some people don't like it..probably a personal thing...but I can recommend >it! > > > > Regards, > > Andrew Puddifer. > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 030 From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Severe flooding in lower South Island Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 20:02:29 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1161 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com An active front and trough, preceded by mild, moist northerly winds, has produced persistent and heavy rain in the Southern Lakes/lower West Coast over the last few days. This has now resulted in rivers and lakes rising to flood levels in the area. Many parts of Queenstown are now under water, and people have been evacuated from their homes in Alexandra. Cold southerly air undercutting the moist northerly air has today resulted in heavy snow in western Southland/Fiordland, with 25cm already on the ground at Te Anau. The front isn't moving north very quickly - it's still dry and warm here in Christchurch with a gusty northwester. We should get wet, cool southerlies by tommorrow morning though, and the weekend looks interesting for most of NZ - thunder and hail showers could hit almost anywhere. Ben Tichborne Christchurch NZ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 031 From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 20:23:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In regard to the infamous Sydney April 14th supercell it developed right on top of a weak SE cold front. Winds ahead of the front were humid NE. I have the only daytime pics at http://thunder.simplenet.com/chase/chase13.htm this was at a stage when the storm was classified as non severe. The storm did as a unit ' move ' N/NE all cloud motion was to the E/SE, but the NW flank constantly propagated new updrafts progressing the structure towards N/NE constantly. In regard to coastal supercells, it is an area that has me thinking all the time. They seem to be a feature of eastern Australia, the March 23rd 1997 storm in the Illawarra http://thunder.simplenet.com/chase/chase2.html also hit its straps after moving to sea. I believe that this storm may also of been a supercell although the BOM doubts it. The geography of the Australian coastline is totally different to east coast USA, we have a very narrow coastal plain, in the Illawarra, none! . We also have the presence of a dry continental air source very close to the coast, just west of the divide, or sometimes as a pseudo dry line passing eastwards over the coast. In eastern USA the humidity is often higher 100km inland than even on the coast. I hope I am sprouting rubbish, let our US friend s correct me if I am. > > My first gut reaction is "seabreeze boundary:" The storm might > regard the sea breeze front as a pre-existing along-coast boundary > that already lifts moist warm air. This would give the storm an > excuse to *develop* (rather than *move*, as Les pointed out) that way. > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 032 From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] "WX-CHASE" Subject: aus-wx: Chase Cartoon Captions Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 21:05:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com We need captions (or whatever you call them) & I'm eliciting the help of all the aussies and those of you in the northern hemisphere with a severe case of SDS at the moment who need a challenge..... This cartoon relates to the Australian chase of October last year - we need to know what is being said by the 2 characters - now for those who don't know - a hint, Jimmy Deguara on the left (next to the cow) has the nickname of 'hail' for obvious reasons. http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/chase_cartoon.htm Please help - so far I have:- Jimmy: What's that whirring noise I can hear? Clyve: I'm sure it's just Hortence the Cow deep-breathing in your ear. Jane ------------------------------------------------------- Jane ONeill ASWA - Victoria Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA Inc.) Melbourne Storm Chasers Email: cadence at rubix.net.au ------------------------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 033 X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 23:13:38 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Chase Target?? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I think taking into account the Victorians travel plans, I would suggest that discussions begin on the target area for the chase. Please keep in mind that we will try aiming for better coverage over days at a time ie more consecutive storm days at a time. This trough is looking nice though. My tips at this stage for Saturday is NW NSW and the border areas of Qld. My LI favourite models stuff is offline!!! Jimmy Deguara +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Document: 991117.htm
Updated: 21 November 1999

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