Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx]
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Saturday, 18 December 1999

    From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]        Explain please... :)
002 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]           Great Britain Minima
003 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           Great Britian Minima
004 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           Seriously weird forecasts on the web
005 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           Great Britain Minima
006 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     Nine network anals & progs
007 Norman Lynagh [lynagh at dial.pipex.com]          Great Britian Minima
008 Norman Lynagh [lynagh at dial.pipex.com]          Seriously weird forecasts on the web
009 Norman Lynagh [lynagh at dial.pipex.com]          Great Britain Minima
010 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     Nine network anals
011 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     TC John has made land...........
012 "Anthony Spierings" [as029 at powerup.com.au]     ww.smh.com.au - Reaction to past storms
013 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]         Snowtown report up and running
014 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           Great Britain Minima
015 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           UK weather
016 astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]             Snowtown report up and running
017 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Snowtown report up and running
018 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Upper air soundings
019 astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]             Snowtown report up and running
020 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Explain please... :)
021 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   1999 Chase Tour Report and Pics
022 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Winds back to NE in Illawarra - another SE coming
023 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Nice Rainfall Totals in SE QLD
024 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Powder snow
025 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Heavy rain in various parts of the country...
026 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Powder snow
027 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]            was Explain please...now info for Les etc....
028 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]           was Explain please...now info for Les etc....
029 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]            was Explain please...now info for Les etc....
030 astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]             New pictures added
031 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]           was Explain please...now info for Les etc....
032 Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au]    Powder snow]
033 Sel Kerans [skerans at mail.cth.com.au]           Signing off, for a short time...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Originating-IP: [203.25.186.106]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Explain please... :)
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 00:42:36 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi every1,

This is probably a really dumb question but...

How the hell do the various prognostic models calculate stuff like CAPE or 
LFTX or any of the other widely examined indices with so little REAL 
upper-level (or for that matter, middle-level) data?

I guess I really mean to ask if interpolation is really a satisfactory way 
of determining data at all!

Sorry, but as much as I love the nitty-gritty of the math, I wonder whether 
it's intrinsically valuable in a place like Australia where 'sondes are 
probably sent up in, what 50(?) places twice a day!

Well it's data, data, data that's required. If the answer to my first 
question is possible by remote observation (i.e satellite) I'll withdraw all 
further quibbles, but I sometimes suspect that (like any of us) computer 
models can make up any damn thing they please based on a dearth of 
information.

In Australia, if you're in (or near) a capital city you may get a reasonable 
sounding (within the limits already mentioned) but elsewhere it seems a bit 
random...

I hope I don't sound too peeved, but I'd imagine there are other places than 
where I am with no radar coverage, no T/Td recordings and bad storms....

Hmmnn...please (someone who may or may not be God) give us some way of 
combining the micro- meso- and macro-aspects of meteorology...

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.





>From: Anthony Cornelius 
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Explain please... :)
>Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 08:50:21 +1000
>
>Hi Les and Leslie :)
>
>"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> >
> > Les (UK):
> >
> > > btw I've got a Skew-T dating from 1960, I know CAPE is high but can
> > someone tell
> > > me how high by showing me the math(s)???
>
>Did you want to scan this?  I can then plot it manually, and give you a
>fairly 'accurate estimate' - well, within 10% normally.  If the figures
>are easily legible, I can chuck them into my CAPE proggy and calculate
>the exact figure too.
>
> > Let me take a shot at this via e-mail. It is the integral of the of the 
>dot
> > product of the storm relative wind vector and the horizontal vorticity
> > vector with respect to height over the height range of 0 to Z.
>
>Actually - I think this is the SRH equation (?)
>
>The equation I've always learnt is the 'looks easy, but is bloody
>complicated' version:
>
>CAPE = g x  of Tv(z)> - Tv(z) all over Tv(z)   with respect to height (z)
>
>Where g = gravitational something
>LFC = Level of Free Convection
>EL = Equilibrium Level
>Tv = Virtual Temperature
>
>Where Tv = (T/1 - (e/p(1-0.622))
>
>When T = Temperature
>e = vapour pressure
>p = atmospheric pressure
>
>Where e = (es - Ap(T-Tw)
>
>When es = saturated vapour pressure
>A = some ventilation constant
>Tw = Wetbulb Temperature
>
>After you substitute everything in, you get a very messy equation that
>will take me 10 mins to type out!
>
>I've often tried to calculate this for myself, but failed because:
>
>- I don't have any values for 'A'
>- I'm not sure how to calculate e or es without at least one of them
>
>If anyone can assist me with the above, it'd be VERY much appreciated.
>
>This is something I got from reading about the CAPE equation in a book -
>and then I went through other books to find the missing equations and
>variables - so if I've made a mistake somewhere along the way...please
>tell me!
>
>As I said though - the easiest thing is to manually plot the skew-t, and
>derive an estimate of CAPE :)  So if you want to scan it (or even post
>it!) to me Les, I can try and work it out for you.
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>(ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>14 Kinsella St
>Belmont, Brisbane
>QLD, 4153
>Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
>reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

______________________________________________________
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002
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Great Britain Minima
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 23:55:28 +1000
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Hmmm,

I recall a particularly severe winter in the U.K. in the early 60's, Jan 62
I think (may have been 60, 61 or even 63).  At the time I lived in a
semi-detached house in St. Albans (Marshalswick Estate) about 20 miles north
of London.  The lounge had a gas heater, but still we managed to crust ice
over 1" thick in the corners of windows on the inside!  (Yes true, imagine
that, Brisbanites!) Snow was piled up in drifts 6' deep outside.  I recall a
report of 33 deg of frost, meaning -1 Fahrenheit.

I'd be curious if someone in the UK can dig the records and see how this
event compares with the more recent mentioned below.

John.
>snip

In message <385AA164.73FB at lisp.com.au>, Lindsay 
writes
>What sort of low temps do they get in these cold outbreaks? What sort of
>wind chills as well?
>
>
>Lindsay P.
>
Down here in the much more sheltered south of England we occasionally
get down to -10c in calm anticyclonic conditions and to -15c very
rarely. The most severe conditions here are with an easterly wind coming
off the continent with a large high centred over Scandinavia. The most
severe event in recent years was in January 1987 (not so recent
really!). My records show the following:

                    Min       Max          Wind        Snow depth
                    ---       ---          ----        ----------
10 Jan             -0.4c      +0.6c     ENE Force 3-4     Nil
11 Jan             -6.9c      -3.3c     NE Force 2-3      Nil
12 Jan            -10.2c      -7.1c     NE Force 3        1 cm
13 Jan             -9.9c      -4.0c     NE Force 3-4      2 cm
14 Jan             -7.0c      -3.6c     NE Force 4-6      8 cm
15 Jan             -4.3c      -0.1c     NE Force 4-5      7 cm
16 Jan             -1.5c      +0.4c     NE Force 3-4      5 cm
17 Jan             -2.3c      -1.4c     SE Force 1-2      5 cm
18 Jan             -3.1c      -1.2c     SE Force 2        5 cm
19 Jan             -3.1c      -1.4c     SE Force 2        5 cm
20 Jan             -1.5c      +1.7c     Light & var       4 cm


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003
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 14:13:47 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Great Britian Minima
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Norman Lynagh wrote:

Presumably the same Norman Lynagh that subscribes to uk.sci.weather.... this
is an amazing place, aus-wx!

Have you seen their websites - amazing stuff...

Les(UK)

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004
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 14:19:08 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Seriously weird forecasts on the web
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Norman Lynagh wrote:

> In message <385A08F3.6B5E8A69 at virgin.net>, Les Crossan
>

> No Les, Blair is correct. The Dec 1995 severe cold spell

Yeah. I'm wrong but hadn't seen todays charts / models. Oops!

It was coold, then - frozen pipes and all. Wasn't there a more serious freezeup in
the UK in the early 80's when there was a blocking high over Scandanavia with
maxima of 0 and minima of -10 or less????

>From a snow and cloud-free free Wallsend 55N 0130E.

Les(UK)

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005
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 14:20:31 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Great Britain Minima
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John Woodbridge wrote:

> Hmmm,
>
> I recall a particularly severe winter in the U.K.

Will post on uk.sci.weather and see what I get!

(too young to remember this)

Les

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

006
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 09:34:20 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Mark:

You make some very good points here.  Weather does impact peoples lives
here to a significant extent.  Thus, we become very sensitive to it.  It
also has a major on industry and transportation.  Thus, it is of great
importance to us.  

I have also visited TWC.  In fact, I have given their staff training on
four occasions with two day seminars on radar and severe storms.  They are
also really great people!

Good to hear from you!!

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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007
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 15:59:56 +0000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Norman Lynagh [lynagh at dial.pipex.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Great Britian Minima
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In message <385A451B.818F25F9 at virgin.net>, Les Crossan
 writes
>
>
>Norman Lynagh wrote:
>
>Presumably the same Norman Lynagh that subscribes to uk.sci.weather.... this
>is an amazing place, aus-wx!
>
>Have you seen their websites - amazing stuff...
>
>Les(UK)
>

The very same person - Haven't poked around the websites too much yet
but will do so.

My Aussie interest is because I worked for the BoM from 1967-1970.
Started with 9 months at the BoM College in Melbourne then the rest of
the time in Queensland, NT and New Guinea.

Norman
===================================================================
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy          Tel:  +44 (0)1494 870220
Chalfont St. Giles                   E-Mail:  lynagh at dial.pipex.com
Buckinghamshire
England
===================================================================
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

008
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 16:01:44 +0000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Norman Lynagh [lynagh at dial.pipex.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Seriously weird forecasts on the web
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In message <385A465C.4B7E61BD at virgin.net>, Les Crossan
 writes
>
>
>Norman Lynagh wrote:
>
>> In message <385A08F3.6B5E8A69 at virgin.net>, Les Crossan
>>
>
>> No Les, Blair is correct. The Dec 1995 severe cold spell
>
>Yeah. I'm wrong but hadn't seen todays charts / models. Oops!
>
>It was coold, then - frozen pipes and all. Wasn't there a more serious freezeup 
>in
>the UK in the early 80's when there was a blocking high over Scandanavia with
>maxima of 0 and minima of -10 or less????
>
Might you be thinking of 1978/79? That was a long hard winter.

Norman.
===================================================================
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy          Tel:  +44 (0)1494 870220
Chalfont St. Giles                   E-Mail:  lynagh at dial.pipex.com
Buckinghamshire
England
===================================================================
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

009
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 16:17:26 +0000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Norman Lynagh [lynagh at dial.pipex.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Great Britain Minima
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In message <000001bf4896$64e385b0$0401010a at pixelcom.net>, John
Woodbridge  writes
>Hmmm,
>
>I recall a particularly severe winter in the U.K. in the early 60's, Jan 62
>I think (may have been 60, 61 or even 63).  At the time I lived in a
>semi-detached house in St. Albans (Marshalswick Estate) about 20 miles north
>of London.  The lounge had a gas heater, but still we managed to crust ice
>over 1" thick in the corners of windows on the inside!  (Yes true, imagine
>that, Brisbanites!) Snow was piled up in drifts 6' deep outside.  I recall a
>report of 33 deg of frost, meaning -1 Fahrenheit.
>
>I'd be curious if someone in the UK can dig the records and see how this
>event compares with the more recent mentioned below.
>
>John.

You're undoubtedly thinking of the famous (notorious) winter of 1962/63.
The cold weather set in just before Christmas and there was a heavy
snowfall in southern England on Boxing Day. From then, right through to
sometime in March easterly winds were very dominant, bringing cold air
from Europe and further east. The freeze was very persistent and there
were several heavy snowfalls over the southern half of the country. With
strong winds and temperatures way below freezing the snow built up into
huge drifts causing widespread transport chaos. From time to time quiet
anticyclonic conditions and the deep snow cover led to very low night
minima. Your recollection of the conditions seems pretty accurate.

The winter of 1962/63 was, arguably, the most severe of this century in
the UK as a whole, although not everywhere was badly affected. I worked
at the Met Office at Prestwick Airport on the west coast of Scotland at
that time. I travelled 30 miles each way by motor-bike to get to and
from work. With the persistent easterly winds, instead of the more usual
W-SW winds, we had a very dry winter with almost no snow. Night
temperatures were often below freezing and black ice was sometimes a
hazard in the mornings. As far as I can remember I only fell off my
motor-bike once on black ice - not bad for the "winter of the century".

Norman.
===================================================================
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy          Tel:  +44 (0)1494 870220
Chalfont St. Giles                   E-Mail:  lynagh at dial.pipex.com
Buckinghamshire
England
===================================================================
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

010
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 13:53:47 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: US/AU Conditions (was) Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals
  &progs
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Anthony and all:

> This is certainly interesting, would this have something to do with the
> fact that it's best if your SRH potential is in the 0-3km area of the
> thunderstorm (height)?  Meaning that the lower your updraft can really

I am sorry that I can not tackle this and the rest of your message
now.....just swamped with work and the holiday but will get to it!  I will
try to answer what I can.  Maybe Harald can take a shot at this in the mean
time if he has any of the rare commodity called "time"!  LOL  (I am sure he
is busier that I am!!  Besides he wore himself out on the math yesterday! 
LOL......that was great, Harald!  )

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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011
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 14:51:46 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC John has made land...........
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Lindsay and all:

 Lindsay Pearce asked:

> Whereabouts are you again Leslie? Altitude there? What's your typical
> maximum and minimum for winter?

Very near the geographic center of the contiguous 48 states......that is in
Independence, MO (Missouri) which is a suburb (on the east side) of Kansas
City, MO.  That is another point.  Kansas City is situated on the border
between Kansas and MO.  The lions share of the city is located on the MO
side.  The altitude is 300 to 400 m MSL.

Our climate is very much continental.  We get down to lows in the typical
winter of -5 to -10 F on the coldest nights and highs during the warmest
days of summer of +105 to 110 F.  During the summer our DP range from low
50s F to upper 70s F (that is extremely steamy!).   have an average total
rainfall of ~ 38 inches each year and average snow of only ~ 20 inches. 
You did ask about typical maximums for winter.......usually mid 20s F to
low 40s F.  There are a few days in the typical winter when the temp will
stay bellow 0 F.  This is usually in mid January.

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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012
From: "Anthony Spierings" [as029 at powerup.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: ww.smh.com.au - Reaction to past storms
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 07:04:20 +1000
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Article in today's Sydney Morning Herald about people's reaction to April's
storm.  The link to the web site is;

http://www.smh.com.au/news/9912/18/pageone/pageone4.html

Interesting article, in light of the discussion on the poor quality of
weather information provided by Channel 9.  (Personally, I think Monty would
serve the community better by being the lightning rod on top of Center
Point.)

As for Ray Wilkie; there was a small section in the local paper about his
replacement.  Apparently Channel 10 are looking for someone whom is a)
female, b) young, c) pretty, (and has big, aahhh, you know).  No mention of
the qualities required for explaining the weather.

Sigh.

Regards,

Anthony Spierings

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013
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snowtown report up and running
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 10:35:14 +1300
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 I wonder how that town got its name. Looking at a map showing it altitude
and location, it doesn't seem to be very appropriately named.


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014
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 21:42:26 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Great Britain Minima
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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John Woodbridge wrote:

> Hmmm,
>
> I recall a particularly severe winter in the U.K. in the early 60's

Heres the best one from uk.sci.weather....

*snip*

Here's a taster, from the Monthly Weather report summary for 1963:

"The bitterly cold weather with easterly winds and widespread snow
which set in about Christmas 1962 continued almost without a break
throughout January and February. Snow fell in one place or another
every day except the last few days of February, and ground remained
snow-covered over a large part of the country until the beginning of
March. Blizzards during the first three days of January, described as
the worst since 1881, piled snow into drifts, 20 feet deep in parts of
the West Country and 8 feet deep in Kent., blocking access by road or
rail to many towns and villages. Helicopters were used to drop
supplies and fodder ..."

Level depths of snow in inches at 10 day intervals in Hampstead
(London):

Jan 1, 12; Jan 11, 9; Jan 21, 14; Jan 31, 9; Feb 10, 3; Feb 20, 4;
March 1; 0. (Kielder Castle had 16 inches depth on March 1).

Lowest Max at Hampstead in Jan/Feb was -4, lowest min -12.

Lots of other places (but not everywhere) had it worse than London!

I was at school in Stockport - not so much snow as London but boy was
it cold - and the two to three solid days of freezing pea souper fog
at -5 to -10, with tons of rime on the trees, was as memorable to me
as the snow!

*snip*

Les(UK)

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015
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 21:59:38 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Lindsay wrote:

> Interesting Blair, yes i will keep an eye on the British weather. I've
> got a friend near the Wales border.

2158gmt - the forecasters still aren't very sure what's going to happen.... ):

Les(UK)

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016
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Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 08:51:40 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snowtown report up and running
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Snowtown does not actually have anything to do with the white stuff that 
falls from clouds (not hail either)

Snowtown was named by a former Governor of South Australia, Sir Thomas 
Jervois, after his private secretary, Thomas Snow.The township was 
proclaimed on 17 December, 1878 and was designed as a railway town.

And yes yesterday was it's Anniversary.


At 10:35 AM 18/12/99 +1300, you wrote:
>  I wonder how that town got its name. Looking at a map showing it altitude
>and location, it doesn't seem to be very appropriately named.
>
>
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017
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snowtown report up and running
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 10:00:21 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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Thanks, I too have often wondered about that. Sure looks dry in those
pictures too, I know they want dry for the wheat harvest, but there is
little ground vegetation - dead or alive. In NSW it is pretty much green
everywhere except the far SW. In fact in 3900km of storm chasing earlier
this month the driest region I saw was a toss between Albury and my hometown
in the Illawarra.

Michael


> Snowtown does not actually have anything to do with the white stuff that
> falls from clouds (not hail either)
>
> Snowtown was named by a former Governor of South Australia, Sir Thomas
> Jervois, after his private secretary, Thomas Snow.The township was
> proclaimed on 17 December, 1878 and was designed as a railway town.
>
> And yes yesterday was it's Anniversary.
>
>
> At 10:35 AM 18/12/99 +1300, you wrote:
> >  I wonder how that town got its name. Looking at a map showing it
altitude
> >and location, it doesn't seem to be very appropriately named.
> >
> >
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018
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Upper air soundings
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 10:15:01 +1100
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Hi Kevin

Tim Marshall has just written a small commentary on upper air soundings, he
sounds out the same concerns as you, for example quote "Balloons are still
being launched twice a day and the stations are 400 km apart on average.
What a joke. It is a wonder the numerical models work as well as they do"

The full article is http://www.storm-track.com/stcomm.htm

Michael




> Sorry, but as much as I love the nitty-gritty of the math, I wonder
whether
> it's intrinsically valuable in a place like Australia where 'sondes are
> probably sent up in, what 50(?) places twice a day!
>
> Well it's data, data, data that's required. If the answer to my first
> question is possible by remote observation (i.e satellite) I'll withdraw
all
> further quibbles, but I sometimes suspect that (like any of us) computer
> models can make up any damn thing they please based on a dearth of
> information.
>
> In Australia, if you're in (or near) a capital city you may get a
reasonable
> sounding (within the limits already mentioned) but elsewhere it seems a
bit
> random...
>
> I hope I don't sound too peeved, but I'd imagine there are other places
than
> where I am with no radar coverage, no T/Td recordings and bad storms....
>
> Hmmnn...please (someone who may or may not be God) give us some way of
> combining the micro- meso- and macro-aspects of meteorology...
>
> Cheers,
> Kevin from Wycheproof.
>
>
>
>
>
> >From: Anthony Cornelius 
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Explain please... :)
> >Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 08:50:21 +1000
> >
> >Hi Les and Leslie :)
> >
> >"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> > >
> > > Les (UK):
> > >
> > > > btw I've got a Skew-T dating from 1960, I know CAPE is high but can
> > > someone tell
> > > > me how high by showing me the math(s)???
> >
> >Did you want to scan this?  I can then plot it manually, and give you a
> >fairly 'accurate estimate' - well, within 10% normally.  If the figures
> >are easily legible, I can chuck them into my CAPE proggy and calculate
> >the exact figure too.
> >
> > > Let me take a shot at this via e-mail. It is the integral of the of
the
> >dot
> > > product of the storm relative wind vector and the horizontal vorticity
> > > vector with respect to height over the height range of 0 to Z.
> >
> >Actually - I think this is the SRH equation (?)
> >
> >The equation I've always learnt is the 'looks easy, but is bloody
> >complicated' version:
> >
> >CAPE = g x  of  >Tv(z)> - Tv(z) all over Tv(z)   with respect to height (z)
> >
> >Where g = gravitational something
> >LFC = Level of Free Convection
> >EL = Equilibrium Level
> >Tv = Virtual Temperature
> >
> >Where Tv = (T/1 - (e/p(1-0.622))
> >
> >When T = Temperature
> >e = vapour pressure
> >p = atmospheric pressure
> >
> >Where e = (es - Ap(T-Tw)
> >
> >When es = saturated vapour pressure
> >A = some ventilation constant
> >Tw = Wetbulb Temperature
> >
> >After you substitute everything in, you get a very messy equation that
> >will take me 10 mins to type out!
> >
> >I've often tried to calculate this for myself, but failed because:
> >
> >- I don't have any values for 'A'
> >- I'm not sure how to calculate e or es without at least one of them
> >
> >If anyone can assist me with the above, it'd be VERY much appreciated.
> >
> >This is something I got from reading about the CAPE equation in a book -
> >and then I went through other books to find the missing equations and
> >variables - so if I've made a mistake somewhere along the way...please
> >tell me!
> >
> >As I said though - the easiest thing is to manually plot the skew-t, and
> >derive an estimate of CAPE :)  So if you want to scan it (or even post
> >it!) to me Les, I can try and work it out for you.
> >--
> >Anthony Cornelius
> >Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> >(ASWA)
> >(07) 3390 4812
> >14 Kinsella St
> >Belmont, Brisbane
> >QLD, 4153
> >Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> >reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> >http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>
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019
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Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 10:09:15 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snowtown report up and running
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Also the hail and wind had destroyed what vegetation there was, within a 
day ground temperatures burnt what was left.



At 10:00 AM 18/12/99 +1100, you wrote:
>Thanks, I too have often wondered about that. Sure looks dry in those
>pictures too, I know they want dry for the wheat harvest, but there is
>little ground vegetation - dead or alive. In NSW it is pretty much green
>everywhere except the far SW. In fact in 3900km of storm chasing earlier
>this month the driest region I saw was a toss between Albury and my hometown
>in the Illawarra.
>
>Michael
>
>
> > Snowtown does not actually have anything to do with the white stuff that
> > falls from clouds (not hail either)
> >
> > Snowtown was named by a former Governor of South Australia, Sir Thomas
> > Jervois, after his private secretary, Thomas Snow.The township was
> > proclaimed on 17 December, 1878 and was designed as a railway town.
> >
> > And yes yesterday was it's Anniversary.
> >
> >
> > At 10:35 AM 18/12/99 +1300, you wrote:
> > >  I wonder how that town got its name. Looking at a map showing it
>altitude
> > >and location, it doesn't seem to be very appropriately named.
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
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>
>
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020
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 10:18:40 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Explain please... :)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Kevin,

Kevin Phyland wrote:
> 
> Hi every1,
> 
> This is probably a really dumb question but...

No question is ever dumb!  We're all here to learn after all, and you
won't learn if you don't ask!

> How the hell do the various prognostic models calculate stuff like CAPE or
> LFTX or any of the other widely examined indices with so little REAL
> upper-level (or for that matter, middle-level) data?

Refer to my previous email about the CAPE equation, but essentially, a
model tries to calculate different levels in the atmosphere that will
give a representation of what the overall atmosphere is like.  Once
these levels are calculated, it then applies the relative equations to
calculate CAPE over a given area.  No model will do *every* single
square inch of the ground, or the upper levels for that matter, but
rather it'll calculate many different areas.  This makes it a lot easier
for the model, but is one reason why thunderstorm forecasting can be so
difficult - if the models resolution is too low (ie, does large areas
for ease of calculation), then

a) It can miss, or 'average out' different aspects of the environment
b) It may not detect very small changes, or influences that could really
have a strong effect on the weather in the immediate surroundings.

LI's are simple to calculate, all you need is a Skew-t, and you can do
it in your head.  Just lift a parcel of air up through the upper
atmosphere, and then simply read the difference of the 500mb
environmental temp, and the air parcel 500mb temp.

So that LI's =  500mb environmental temp - 500mb air parcel temp

So that if your 500mb environmental temp is -20C, and your 500mb air
parcel temp is -5C you have:

LI = -20 - -5 
LI = -20 + 5
LI = -15

EKI = +infinity :-)  (EKI = Excited Kevin Index!)



Your concerns are quite valid Kevin - yes they do use satellite imagery
in the process of model runs, but I'm not quite satisfied.  Our sounding
stations are *far* too widely dispersed!  Sometimes there's no sounding
stations for near 1000km here, and they only go up twice a day (although
some do go up 3-4 times a day if I'm correct).  It's far too easy for
the fine elements of the upper atmosphere to go undetected.  One such
example, could be the April 14 supercell hailstorm, it does appear that
a cold pool did go undetected, perhaps if it had been detected, we would
have seen a much different forecast!

Even here in Brisbane we get occassional upper systems that go
undetected until they reach the coast.  This is especially the case when
the surface itself is too dry to form anything, so satellite imagery is
useless in this case.  I would suspect this would quite often be the
case when upper level systems go undetected/under forecasted.

Hopefully with the implementation of automatic sounding stations, we'll
see more sounding stations around Australia in the next few years.

The surface data is somewhat better due to the AWS network, certainly
much better then the upper level data density!

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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021
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: 1999 Chase Tour Report and Pics
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 12:40:26 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Finally have written my report on the 1999 chase tour, I missed the best
days at the beginning.

Report is below --

http://thunder.simplenet.com/chase/tour3.htm



Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com


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022
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Winds back to NE in Illawarra - another SE coming
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 16:38:28 +1100
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I wrote a few weeks ago that a quick flick back to NE by winds means that
there is a SE coming again with 12 - 18 hours. This situation is happening
in the Illawarra today with the winds already back to NE after the change to
the SE around midday yesterday.

It may not mean much in the way of weather, but occasionally the lower air
pressures in these weak troughs is enough to trigger storms ( unlikely this
time ) or showers when the SE re-establishes ( likely ).

These little things interest me as they often represent days when the
forecasts don't follow the plan, and they are common along the southern NSW
coast in late Spring - Early Summer. The NE days tend be slightly warmer
then the original forecasted SE day, then when the trough passes or breaks
down and the SE re-establishes it is often with showers that were not
forecast.

What happens is the main anticyclone is back over  the bight, a trough
passes through and winds turn SE, however the main high tries to ridge
itself into the Tasman, like a lava lamp or beads feeding into each other.
When this ridging occurs often a small sometimes detached, sometimes just a
short ridge of high pressure makes it into the Tasman, this creates a small
trough west of the coast, and this is what turns winds NE and lifts the
chances or thunder and or showers.  Almost always the change back to SE
occurs during the night with these cases too - interesting ?

Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com


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023
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 16:15:42 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Nice Rainfall Totals in SE QLD
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Seems like a good scattering of rainfall in the past 24hours - nothing
too major though, although my dad has recorded 115mm at his property
(Hiddenvale, near Grandchester - 100km or so WSW of Brisbane) in the
past 24hrs!  62mm o'night, and 53mm from 9am-2pm - when he rang me just
after 2pm asking where the rain had gone because it had suddenly
stopped!  All the dams are now full though, and they're "overflowing
like a waterfall." :)

I wasn't so lucky - 29.6mm o'night, 13.5mm during the day - 43.1mm all
up.  If course, it's also been rather cold - had the heater on for most
of the day, it was 19.8C at midday!!!  Which is around 8C below normal,
currently sitting on 21.3C - which is my max for today!  Where's
summer!!!?

Here is the rainfall bulletin - nearly everywhere has had between
1-2inches.

RAINFALL SOUTHEAST COAST: [15]



Amberley  43 Beaudesert  41 Beechmont  33 Beenleigh  16
Beerburrum  23 Canungra  35 Cape Moreton  30 Coolangatta  32
Crows Nest  34 Darlington  47 Foxley  44 Gatton  55
Gold Cst Seaway  35 Hinze Dam  26 Kenilworth  14 Lake Cooroibah  13
Lindfield  24 Logan City  19 Lowood  35 Macleans Bridge  26
Maleny  15 Maroochydore  21 Maroon Dam  50 Miami  24
Moogerah Dam  56/2 Morayfield  39 Mt Glorious   9 Mt Mee  30
Mt Nebo  27 Mt Tamborine  33 Mt Tarampa  52 Mulgowie  39
Nambour  27 Nerang  36 Norwell  15 Palmwoods  28 Pechey  51
Pt Arkwright  32 Point Lookout  11 Romani  28 Somerset Dam  29
Southport  60 Springbrook  28 Tarome  51 Tewantin  14
Toogoolawah  35

RAINFALL METROPOLITAN:  

Archerfield  41 Ashgrove  21 Boondall  16 Brisbane AP  18
Capalaba  30 Cleveland  19 Greenbank  39 Kalinga  20 Lytton  22
Manly  22 Mt Gravatt  32 Oxley  31 Redcliffe  20 Strathpine  19
Sunnybank  29 Toombul  16
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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024
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 13:37:04 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Powder snow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yeah, i guess that is generally true although I have experienced small
(pea size and less) and dry flakes falling at Oberon with the temp below
zero. The air seemed quite dry which seemed to make the snow not feel
cold at all, to do with less cold transference with dry snow perhaps?
I'm not sure. I just remember walking around taking photos in jeans and
a t-shirt/light jumper and no gloves with no sense of it being
particularly cold.


The fall there last June was GREAT! I think the official amount was 40cm
but it seemed more than that in places on the ground. Even on that day,
it didn't feel that cold, although maybe this is an acclimatised person
speaking as some of the tourist were saying it was bloody freezing!

Lindsay Pearce


Michael Thompson wrote:
> 
> I have never skied in my life, but I think powder is a product of low
> humidity - low temperatures, whilst Aussie snow tends to be in very humid
> environments with temps often just under 0C , which equals large flakes.
> 
> Michael
> 
>


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025
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 13:24:55 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy rain in various parts of the country...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

G'day Blair,

Blair Trewin wrote:
 
> Queensland looks like it might get some substantial rain over the
> next two days (which is normally the only way that Victoria avoids
> losing at the Gabba, so I can't be too upset :-). Also pretty cool
> over the SE (Melbourne is not forecast to get into 548-plus thicknesses
> until Monday night).
> 

Yeah, but it might also allow the Queenslanders to get a bit of swing in
that humidity :-) - Can you tell my mother was a Queenslander? I say
was,
she's a Blackheathean now, two foot underneath my dogwood tree in the
form of ashes! There's a few cricketing jokes relating to urns there...


Lindsay Pearce
PS: we have the bat that The Don used to score a hundred on the
Blackheath Oval, its in the bowling club. Then again, its not that hard
to reach the boundaries on our oval.


> Blair Trewin
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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026
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 13:43:36 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Powder snow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Feel free to describe more Michael. God I'm talking about snow in the
first month of summer! But hey, we can get some form of snow here over
most months, well not Dec/Jan/Feb I guess. The snow at Oberon last June
was definately good enough for skiing. I haven't seen snow like that
outside of the Aussie Alps before. Any body got records of snow falls at
Oberon?


Lindsay Pearce.
PS: Unzipped your OBS800M.ZIP no worries too, thanks.

Michael Scollay wrote:
> 
> Lindsay wrote:
> >
> > For Michael Scollay and others in the "snow know"
> >
> > I was reading about The Rocky Mountains snow fields (Colorado)
> > and the amount of powder snow they receive there. The article
> > said that Australia rarely gets more than a few centimetres
> > of powder snow over a hard base.
> >
> > Is this true?
> >
> > I thought that at times after a fresh dump it could be quite
> > powdery for a day or so...just wondering.
> 
> First of all, the author of that arctical is talking off
> the top of his hat with a load of crap. I'll take him out
> on the main range almost any day in July/August and laugh
> at him/her buried in Aussie powder over his head but with
> one qualification - the conditions have got to be spot on.
> 
> Secondly, I've skiied "powder" in Colorado, Utah and France.
> There's nothing like the lightness of Utah dry snow which
> is the other name for "powder" with its huge lightly-packed
> classic snow-crystaline structure. Now that is a rare sight
> in Australia as our dry snow tends to be more tightly
> packed with crystals not quite as large.
> 
> I could describe more (favourite subject) later...
> 
> Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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027
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 18:12:14 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: was Explain please...now info for Les etc....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Howdy all.

Just a note for Les(USA) re: Cape figures etc.

Darwins for today was 1929 with a Lftx of -4.8 that was at 0Z.

I will try and keep an eye on every sounding to see what sort of figures
relate to weather events up here - I know that there is a trough
approaching us due Monday - will be interesting to see how that will
effect figures etc.

Paul at Darwin.
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028
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 19:43:01 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: was Explain please...now info for Les etc....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Paul, I believe that the LI values and associated CAPE values for the 
region around Darwin to be quite high. I think the best storms are usually 
a few hundred kilometres generally S of Darwin where you can get 
interaction with drier air. Like Anthony says, wind shear is a problem. 
Storms pop up and collapse most of the time. Nevertheless, they are quite 
spectacular and huge.

Jimmy Deguara

At 18:12 18/12/99 +0930, you wrote:
>Howdy all.
>
>Just a note for Les(USA) re: Cape figures etc.
>
>Darwins for today was 1929 with a Lftx of -4.8 that was at 0Z.
>
>I will try and keep an eye on every sounding to see what sort of figures
>relate to weather events up here - I know that there is a trough
>approaching us due Monday - will be interesting to see how that will
>effect figures etc.
>
>Paul at Darwin.
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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029
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 18:37:01 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: was Explain please...now info for Les etc....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Jimmy . I wanst talking about storms - Les was unaware that our
Tropical areas can get CAPEs above several '00's - just letting him know
what sort of values thats all.

Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> Paul, I believe that the LI values and associated CAPE values for the
> region around Darwin to be quite high. I think the best storms are usually
> a few hundred kilometres generally S of Darwin where you can get
> interaction with drier air. Like Anthony says, wind shear is a problem.
> Storms pop up and collapse most of the time. Nevertheless, they are quite
> spectacular and huge.
> 
> Jimmy Deguara
> 
> At 18:12 18/12/99 +0930, you wrote:
> >Howdy all.
> >
> >Just a note for Les(USA) re: Cape figures etc.
> >
> >Darwins for today was 1929 with a Lftx of -4.8 that was at 0Z.
> >
> >I will try and keep an eye on every sounding to see what sort of figures
> >relate to weather events up here - I know that there is a trough
> >approaching us due Monday - will be interesting to see how that will
> >effect figures etc.
> >
> >Paul at Darwin.
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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030
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 19:36:14 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: New pictures added
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I have added 10 more pictures to the Gallery area, you can find them 
through the Gallery area (funnily enough) then click on Andrew Wall's 
Gallery and your there :)

or you can do it the easy way and follow this URL: 
http://sastorms.virtualave.net

All pictures were taken about 4 weeks ago, when several pulse storms went 
through the Adelaide general area.


Andrew Wall
State representative for S.A. and N.T.
Webmaster of The official South Australian Severe Weather watch homepage.
SASW - http://sastorms.virtualave.net

ASWA Inc. - http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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031
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 20:14:48 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: was Explain please...now info for Les etc....
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Sorry Paul, that is what I was also trying to do, add more evidence to your 
argument. I simply thought Leslie had made an assumption when he had talked 
about the tropics and comparing it with Darwin. So my comment was more in 
favour of your CAPE values. I believe that the area I mentioned would be 
great to chase because of the high CAPE values and the low LI given the 
right conditions. Of course, you would need the roads.

Jimmy Deguara

At 18:37 18/12/99 +0930, you wrote:
>Hi Jimmy . I wanst talking about storms - Les was unaware that our
>Tropical areas can get CAPEs above several '00's - just letting him know
>what sort of values thats all.
>
>Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> >
> > Paul, I believe that the LI values and associated CAPE values for the
> > region around Darwin to be quite high. I think the best storms are usually
> > a few hundred kilometres generally S of Darwin where you can get
> > interaction with drier air. Like Anthony says, wind shear is a problem.
> > Storms pop up and collapse most of the time. Nevertheless, they are quite
> > spectacular and huge.
> >
> > Jimmy Deguara
> >
> > At 18:12 18/12/99 +0930, you wrote:
> > >Howdy all.
> > >
> > >Just a note for Les(USA) re: Cape figures etc.
> > >
> > >Darwins for today was 1929 with a Lftx of -4.8 that was at 0Z.
> > >
> > >I will try and keep an eye on every sounding to see what sort of figures
> > >relate to weather events up here - I know that there is a trough
> > >approaching us due Monday - will be interesting to see how that will
> > >effect figures etc.
> > >
> > >Paul at Darwin.
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
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032
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 22:18:37 +1100
From: Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: [Fwd: Re: aus-wx: Powder snow]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hello Everyone

Its a long time since I have posted anything, its mainly due to new work
commitments of the tourist season. I have enjoyed the more challenging
theory and associated  discussion it has produced. Please keep sending
it, as it is not boring!

Lindsay we have snow forecast down to 900m tonight.

Chas 
Strahan Tasmania

-------- Original Message --------
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Powder snow
>Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 13:43:36 -0800
>From: Lindsay 
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>References: <31A0DED1E83FD3118A4B00805F8584DD1E837A at NTLS0013>
><017501bf46bb$a07ae320$de2208d2 at ab> <385A71AA.6FC2 at lisp.com.au>
><38599274.3D2B17AF at telstra.com.au>

Feel free to describe more Michael. God I'm talking about snow in the
first month of summer! But hey, we can get some form of snow here over
most months, well not Dec/Jan/Feb I guess. The snow at Oberon last June
was definately good enough for skiing. I haven't seen snow like that
outside of the Aussie Alps before. Any body got records of snow falls at
Oberon?


Lindsay Pearce.
PS: Unzipped your OBS800M.ZIP no worries too, thanks.

Michael Scollay wrote:
> 
> Lindsay wrote:
> >
> > For Michael Scollay and others in the "snow know"
> >
> > I was reading about The Rocky Mountains snow fields (Colorado)
> > and the amount of powder snow they receive there. The article
> > said that Australia rarely gets more than a few centimetres
> > of powder snow over a hard base.
> >
> > Is this true?
> >
> > I thought that at times after a fresh dump it could be quite
> > powdery for a day or so...just wondering.
> 
> First of all, the author of that arctical is talking off
> the top of his hat with a load of crap. I'll take him out
> on the main range almost any day in July/August and laugh
> at him/her buried in Aussie powder over his head but with
> one qualification - the conditions have got to be spot on.
> 
> Secondly, I've skiied "powder" in Colorado, Utah and France.
> There's nothing like the lightness of Utah dry snow which
> is the other name for "powder" with its huge lightly-packed
> classic snow-crystaline structure. Now that is a rare sight
> in Australia as our dry snow tends to be more tightly
> packed with crystals not quite as large.
> 
> I could describe more (favourite subject) later...
> 
> Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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033
X-Sender: skerans at mail.cth.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.5 (32)
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 1999 22:07:20 +0000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Sel Kerans [skerans at mail.cth.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Signing off, for a short time...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hello folks, 

Jumping off the email list for a while - going to the USA for 4 weeks,
armed with a new camera and extra lenses.  Hope to have some great shots
for you all in the new year.

All the best for the festive season and the new year - looks like being a
good one for cyclones?

All is rainy here in QLD - very damp and quite cool.

Cheers,

Sel.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  Sel Kerans                                        
  Coordinator                                  \|/        &&&&&
  Project Atmosphere Australia On-line         -0-  .--_|\ "/"
  WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa       /|\ /      \ \
  Email: s.kerans at mail.cth.com.au                  \_.--\_/ 
  EQ: sel.kerans at bribislashs.qld.edu.au		         v
  PAA: paa at bribislashs.qld.edu.au		         
  ph 07 3408 3588 fax 07 3408 3088
                  
   *** Now taking registrations from schools around the world ***
   *** On-line activities scheduled for March, April, May 2000 ***          
 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Document: 991218.htm
Updated: 22 December 1999

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