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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 22 December 1999 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au] Positive SOI
002 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Storm Chasers.
003 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Positive SOI
004 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Lemons
005 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Great Britian Minima
006 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Powder snow
007 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Positive SOI
008 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Welcome Leslie to ASWA
009 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] Great Britian Minima
010 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. BoM Olympic Site:-(
011 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Positive SOI
012 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Obsessive Compulsive Weather Dis-order
013 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Chase tomorrow??
014 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Obsessive Compulsive Weather Dis-order
015 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Storms to SW of Canberra
016 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Summer so far in NZ
017 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] New TC Tracking Maps
018 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Chase tomorrow??
019 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] [Fwd: [Lightning] 'Twas the night before Christmas]
020 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] MSC site hiccups
021 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] What do you think??
022 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Low maxima in Western NSW
023 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Low maxima in Western NSW
024 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Re: Storms in NW NSW / SW QLD
025 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Very hot on the west coast
026 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Low maxima in Western NSW - change easily
027 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Re: Storms in NW NSW / SW QLD
028 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Storms going off here
029 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
030 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Storms going off here
031 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Chase tomorrow??
032 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
033 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
034 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Positive SOI
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 08:56:09 +1000
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-----Original Message-----
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: - *aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 21 December 1999 2:58 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms developing to Sth of Canberra
>Howdy Patrick & all.
>
>I wonder what the increasing SOI will do Country wide? Has anyone got an
idea -
>I know that they generally say that it may lead to higher rain for some
parts -
>but is there any more specific info?
>Paul.
The most reliable (statistically) system of climate forecasting is the SOI
"phase" system rather than the SOI itself. Five phases have been identified.
Consistently negative
Rapidly falling
Constantly near zero
Rapidly rising
Consistently positive
Accessing the DPI longpaddock site will show probability maps based on these
phases. Current phase is consistently positive.
For more detailed, and site specific information, a software package called
"Australian Rainman" has been developed. The maths for calculating the phase
is included with the software.
For Darwin, there is little difference regardless of SOI phase.
ie Chance of exceeding median rainfall for Jan-March (1036mm) with :
SOI falling 42% KS/KW probability 0.146
SOI negative 56% 0.069
SOI neutral 53% 0.002
SOI rising 42%
0.579
SOI positive 58% 0.901
ALL years 50%
0.579
Hence although the positive phase shows a slightly better than "average"
chance, you'd be almost as well off using historical data.
Using straight SOI, the equivalent results are:
< -5 42 0.408
-5 to +5 48 0.588
> +5 61 0.983
ALL 50 0.777
Again, a slight advantage in the current situation.
Rainman also uses sea surface temperature anomalies.
Again for Darwin:
SST < -0.2 38 0.553
-0.2 to +0.2 62 0.345
> 0.2 52 0.477
ALL 50 0.619
and SST trends
SST fall by 0.2 42 0.424
SST neutral 60 0.307
SST rise by 0.2 54 0.203
ALL 50 0.649
Aust. Rainman goes into a lot more detail than this - too much to include
here.
So, in answer to your question re more specific data - yep, there's plenty !
I'm currently testing a beta version of Rainman which also includes a
streamflow module which assesses the probabilities of the volume of flow in
rivers and streams based on SOI. Potentially very useful for irrigation and
environmental management.
Hope I haven't bored everyone to tears.
Merry Christmas Paul and all,
Bill,
Proserpine NQ
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002
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Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 10:33:03 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chasers.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi
I just caught the last 30 seconds of this program, but it is on again at
1pm NSW time today, its called "Storm Chasers" and its on the National
Geographic channel
Anyway thought id let people konw..
Matt Smith
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003
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Positive SOI
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 09:05:17 +0930
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Wow Bill - thats great! Merry Christmas to you as well!
Paul.
Last night here another storm - only 5mm of rain but lightrning & thunder yet
again! Very nice to go to bed hearing rumbles of thunder (though at first I
thought it was next door snoring.. )
billwebb at tpgi.com.au at world.std.com on 22/12/99 08:59:00 AM
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Subject: aus-wx: Positive SOI
-----Original Message-----
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: - *aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 21 December 1999 2:58 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms developing to Sth of Canberra
>Howdy Patrick & all.
>
>I wonder what the increasing SOI will do Country wide? Has anyone got an
idea -
>I know that they generally say that it may lead to higher rain for some
parts -
>but is there any more specific info?
>Paul.
The most reliable (statistically) system of climate forecasting is the SOI
"phase" system rather than the SOI itself. Five phases have been identified.
Consistently negative
Rapidly falling
Constantly near zero
Rapidly rising
Consistently positive
Accessing the DPI longpaddock site will show probability maps based on these
phases. Current phase is consistently positive.
For more detailed, and site specific information, a software package called
"Australian Rainman" has been developed. The maths for calculating the phase
is included with the software.
For Darwin, there is little difference regardless of SOI phase.
ie Chance of exceeding median rainfall for Jan-March (1036mm) with :
SOI falling 42% KS/KW probability 0.146
SOI negative 56% 0.069
SOI neutral 53% 0.002
SOI rising 42%
0.579
SOI positive 58% 0.901
ALL years 50%
0.579
Hence although the positive phase shows a slightly better than "average"
chance, you'd be almost as well off using historical data.
Using straight SOI, the equivalent results are:
< -5 42 0.408
-5 to +5 48 0.588
> +5 61 0.983
ALL 50 0.777
Again, a slight advantage in the current situation.
Rainman also uses sea surface temperature anomalies.
Again for Darwin:
SST < -0.2 38 0.553
-0.2 to +0.2 62 0.345
> 0.2 52 0.477
ALL 50 0.619
and SST trends
SST fall by 0.2 42 0.424
SST neutral 60 0.307
SST rise by 0.2 54 0.203
ALL 50 0.649
Aust. Rainman goes into a lot more detail than this - too much to include
here.
So, in answer to your question re more specific data - yep, there's plenty !
I'm currently testing a beta version of Rainman which also includes a
streamflow module which assesses the probabilities of the volume of flow in
rivers and streams based on SOI. Potentially very useful for irrigation and
environmental management.
Hope I haven't bored everyone to tears.
Merry Christmas Paul and all,
Bill,
Proserpine NQ
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004
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 09:06:39 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Lemons
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No, not kidding, and he's and exceptionally bright and handsome fellow
too.
Lindsay Pearce
Leslie R. Lemon wrote:
>
> Lindsay Pearce
>
> > PS; I just realised my cousin's middle name is Raymond. That makes him
> > Leslie R.Lemon! No kidding.
>
> You have got to be kidding!!! LOL
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Phone: 816-373-3533
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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005
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 09:11:06 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Great Britian Minima
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Yeah, quite amazing how mild it is in GB, generally speaking.
Bye the way, how is Europe so far this winter?
Lindsay Pearce
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> Les Crossan wrote:
> >
> > Lindsay wrote:
> >
> > > Thanks Blair and to all others for the UK info.
> >
> > some of us would sooner have red on radar rather than powder
> > snow - from a very cold Wallsend (55N 1-30W) - called that
> > 'coz a certain roman guy called Mr. Hadrian built a wall here
> > to keep the scots out -
>
> I saw an artical from CLIVAR recently that basically said "if
> you want to plunge Europe back into an ice-age, simply cut-off
> the gulf stream". It's times like these that remind people just
> how close the UK is to the North Pole. Better still, move the UK
> into the Southern Hemisphere then work out the weather. Something
> like Macquarie Island year-round wouldn't sustain the UK in much
> shape or form like the present...I'd enjoy the powder snow while
> it lasts and hope that it doesn't last for too long...
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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006
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 09:26:23 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Powder snow
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Thanks Blair,
Yeah, its funny talking to Oberon locals about snow, most of them are
indifferent to it and some even hate it. On the day (s) of the heavy
fall last year, I was in the main street watching all the farmers
standing there in their drizabones shaking their heads and talking about
feed for the sheep etc.
Actually, I wouldn't mind getting some "Phenomena" reports, ie: stories
of the past etc on snow falls in the Oberon area. Perhaps I'll wait
until it gets closer to winter. Might put an add in their paper or try
and get a story done or something, inviting such stories to be told.
Lindsay Pearce
PS: I would hazard a guess Oberon (south of Oberon) might've had some
form of snow through January - March, at least, wet snow. Just a
thought.
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> Based on the phenomena reports, Oberon has an average of 15 days of
> snow falling per year, and has reported snow in all months except
> January, February and March (the most recent December fall being in
> 1993).
>
> No records of depth that I'm aware of. I expect Oberon would have had
> at least 50cm, and possibly considerably more, in the 1900 blizzard
> (given press reports of 120cm in the Rydal area).
>
> Blair Trewin
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
007
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Positive SOI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 11:04:52 +1100 (EST)
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>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
>
> To: - *aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Tuesday, 21 December 1999 2:58 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms developing to Sth of Canberra
>
>
> >Howdy Patrick & all.
> >
> >I wonder what the increasing SOI will do Country wide? Has anyone got an
> idea -
> >I know that they generally say that it may lead to higher rain for some
> parts -
> >but is there any more specific info?
>
>
> >Paul.
>
>
> The most reliable (statistically) system of climate forecasting is the SOI
> "phase" system rather than the SOI itself. Five phases have been identified.
>
> Consistently negative
> Rapidly falling
> Constantly near zero
> Rapidly rising
> Consistently positive
>
> Accessing the DPI longpaddock site will show probability maps based on these
> phases. Current phase is consistently positive.
>
> For more detailed, and site specific information, a software package called
> "Australian Rainman" has been developed. The maths for calculating the phase
> is included with the software.
>
> For Darwin, there is little difference regardless of SOI phase.
(snip)
The skill in SOI-based (or sea temperature-based) climate forecasts
starts to fall substantially at this time of year - to some extent,
this reflects the tendency for El Ninos to collapse in the southern
autumn (so in some years - 1983 and 1973 are good examples - the
heavy rains then start getting picked up in three-month totals for
January-March, weakening any relationships between the SOI and
rainfall). The strongest relationships between the SOI and rainfall
(and temperature, for that matter) tend to be in the August-December
period.
Blair Trewin
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
008
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Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 11:52:56 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Welcome Leslie to ASWA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Leslie,
Welcome to ASWA. I hope your experiences with ASWA is a good one. It is
still in its developing stage but we are all happy with the outcome so far
and the prospects for the future. One thing I have found unique with ASWA
is that most members have contributed whatever they can to help build
information and resources. You are welcome to contribute if you wish or
offer feedback.
Once again congratulations and welcome.
Jimmy Deguara
President ASWA
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
009
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Great Britian Minima
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 14:10:28 +1300
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> Bye the way, how is Europe so far this winter?
I've heard that wintry weather had arrived in Europe weeks before winter
had 'officially' started on 1 December. I saw TV pictures of snow blanketed
streets in Barcelona, and a frozen beach in northwestern Italy. That was
about 20 November.
Better still, move the UK
> > into the Southern Hemisphere then work out the weather. Something
> > like Macquarie Island year-round wouldn't sustain the UK in much
> > shape or form like the present...I'd enjoy the powder snow while
> > it lasts and hope that it doesn't last for too long...
Actually, Macquarie island is relaively mild when compared to most of the
other (few) islands at similar latitudes in the southern hemisphere
(excluding Tierra Del Fuego) In the southern Atlantic, Bouvet Island (the
most isolated island in the world) is at about 54S, and is permanantly ice
capped to sea-level!. In the Indian Ocean, the Prince Edward Islands are
only at about 46S, but have a climate very similar to Macquarie.
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010
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 12:08:11 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: BoM Olympic Site:-(
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Sadly, the test password for the BoM Olympic Site fails today.
This great source of local model expertise is now part of an
"exclusive" set of BoM products. I would dearly like to
continue my assessment of local models so anyone with the
required info, please reply to me personally. Other than
that, I now rely on those overseas models...
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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011
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Positive SOI
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 10:40:46 +0930
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Which would be evidenced by the widespread rain that Eastern Australian areas
received. Also the impressive start to the wet season where near record +
record rains were received.
Looking at the figures that Bill gave the SOI doesnt tend to impact Monsoonal
areas much at all. Blair - are there any other significant models that BOm etc
use to determine strenght/weakness of monsoons etc?/
Paul.
blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU at world.std.com on 22/12/99 10:27:01 AM
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Sent by: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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cc:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Positive SOI
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
>
> To: - *aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Tuesday, 21 December 1999 2:58 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms developing to Sth of Canberra
>
>
> >Howdy Patrick & all.
> >
> >I wonder what the increasing SOI will do Country wide? Has anyone got an
> idea -
> >I know that they generally say that it may lead to higher rain for some
> parts -
> >but is there any more specific info?
>
>
> >Paul.
>
>
> The most reliable (statistically) system of climate forecasting is the SOI
> "phase" system rather than the SOI itself. Five phases have been identified.
>
> Consistently negative
> Rapidly falling
> Constantly near zero
> Rapidly rising
> Consistently positive
>
> Accessing the DPI longpaddock site will show probability maps based on these
> phases. Current phase is consistently positive.
>
> For more detailed, and site specific information, a software package called
> "Australian Rainman" has been developed. The maths for calculating the phase
> is included with the software.
>
> For Darwin, there is little difference regardless of SOI phase.
(snip)
The skill in SOI-based (or sea temperature-based) climate forecasts
starts to fall substantially at this time of year - to some extent,
this reflects the tendency for El Ninos to collapse in the southern
autumn (so in some years - 1983 and 1973 are good examples - the
heavy rains then start getting picked up in three-month totals for
January-March, weakening any relationships between the SOI and
rainfall). The strongest relationships between the SOI and rainfall
(and temperature, for that matter) tend to be in the August-December
period.
Blair Trewin
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012
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 11:22:15 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Obsessive Compulsive Weather Dis-order
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Lindsay.
>It was funny because as I was speaking there was a little voice saying,
>"Hey Lins, how can you get an ASWA plug in here?" Sadly,
>(for my friends, not for me) weather is overtaking my life. Are there
>any Psychotherapy models out there that deal with Obsessive Compulsive
>Weather Dis-order?
I think you will find that most persons who subscribe to aus-wx are
affected to a greater or lesser degree from OCWD - or their friends and
families think they do anyway!!!!!
Sorry, don't know any good shrinks that can fix this up!
I suspect that the Medical profession is ignoring this one, as weather is
such an all pervading thing that it is probably hard for them to get a
handle on it.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
013
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Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 13:18:36 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Chase tomorrow??
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi folks,
Things are starting to look favourable for conditions in NW NSW and SW Qld.
I am going to check how things go this evening and then head out for Bourke
tomorrow. If there are any mad people interested, please e-mail me
personally of your interest in going. This will only be for as long as this
system goes through and perhaps we may head back in a few days time. You
may want to chase in a separate car for that fact if you can only do a
couple of days.
We will need to leave here around 6am. I believe there is potential for
good action. So it is Thursday and Friday at this stage that is the plan.
My e-mail by the way is jdeguara at ihug.com.au and phone 96271843
Jimmy Deguara
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
014
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Obsessive Compulsive Weather Dis-order
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 12:00:12 +0930
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Talking about such............
Have you all noticed that there hasnt been any Severe TS advices for days
now.................................
Seems the weather has gone for an early xmas!
Nice mass of cloud building in the Gulf though atm - good one to watch.
Paul.
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015
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: AMA at TNPN
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 14:03:19 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Storms to SW of Canberra
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Quite a few storms evident to the ranges SW of Canberra.
TCu gradually spreading across the rest of the sky.
Activity looks much more promising than yesterday's
fairly tentative attempts.
Patrick
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016
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: AMA at TNPN
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 14:08:06 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Summer so far in NZ
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Whilst on the subject of the season so far in various parts of the world,
I was curious as to what sort of summer has so far been experienced in
places like Christchurch.
Looking at the models suggests a lot of cool air has been over many
parts of NZ for a considerable part of the last few months. Also I know
some friends who have recently moved from Yorkshire, UK to Christchurch
and have commented that they haven't really noticed much change in
the weather (apart from the - occasionally seen - sun being about 10
degrees higher in the sky).
Patrick
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017
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 13:31:00 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: New TC Tracking Maps
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
I have added most of the rest of the screen size maps to the range of
cyclone tracking maps at http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm.
There is only 6 to go to complete the full set of 35!
I guess this is one of the ways my OCWD is manifesting....not much else
happening weather-wise to keep my attention, so I give myself a weather
related job to do!!!!
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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018
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Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 14:40:01 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chase tomorrow??
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I think I might give tomorrow a miss but will see how it looks for Friday
as the system approaches. There is too much risk with the edge of the
upper level moisture to clear NW NSW at this stage the storms will then
be in no man's land but I will keep tabs on models. If you are interested
do ring.
Jimmy Deguara
At 13:18 22/12/99 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi folks,
>
>Things are starting to look favourable for conditions in NW NSW and SW
>Qld. I am going to check how things go this evening and then head out for
>Bourke tomorrow. If there are any mad people interested, please e-mail me
>personally of your interest in going. This will only be for as long as
>this system goes through and perhaps we may head back in a few days time.
>You may want to chase in a separate car for that fact if you can only do a
>couple of days.
>
>We will need to leave here around 6am. I believe there is potential for
>good action. So it is Thursday and Friday at this stage that is the plan.
>
>My e-mail by the way is jdeguara at ihug.com.au and phone 96271843
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
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>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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019
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 13:50:34 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: [Fwd: [Lightning] 'Twas the night before Christmas]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
This is off the lightning list - I had to forward it to everyone, it's
excellent!!!
-------- Original Message --------
>Subject: [Lightning] 'Twas the night before Christmas
>Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 22:15:12 -0500 (EST)
>From: Dan Robinson
>Reply-To: Lightning at onelist.com
>To: Lightning at onelist.com
>From: Dan Robinson
'Twas the night before Christmas
and from the Gulf to North Dakota
not a camera was stirring
not even a Minolta
The film supply was stashed
in the cooler with care
In hopes that 'St. Cumulonimbolas'
soon would be there
The storm chasers were all nestled
snug in their beds,
while visions of CG's
danced in their heads
Since nothing outside
would be breaking the cap,
I finally settled down
for a long winter's nap.
When out in the sky
there arose such a clatter
I sprang to my feet-
I knew what was the matter!
Outside with the camera I ran with a dash-
As I opened the shutter I exclaimed,
"There's a flash!"
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
but a bright flash of light
that was really quite near.
Though often this old camera's
shutter would stick,
Oh dear! Nothing appropriate rhymes
with 'would stick'......
Well, back to reality I now must return
'cause SSDS makes the imagination burn
"Face it- it's winter"
I said with a chuckle,
The only sparks around here
will be doorknob-to-knuckle
So I'll really settle down
for a long winter's nap
I'll need all this sleep
for spring's first thunderclap......
--------------------------- ONElist Sponsor ----------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
020
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: MSC site hiccups
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 15:56:57 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
If you're having problems accessing the MSC site at present, it's because
they are in the process of upgrading & moving the server from 1 place to
another. I can't even upload at the moment (which is why I can't get the
forecasts up if you're waiting for them ).
If you can't get in using
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
try this address instead
http://210.8.34.10/~cadence
and for pages within the site replace the www.rubix.net.au part of the
address with 210.8.34.10
so the December page becomes
http://210.8.34.10/~cadence/december.htm
Many apologies until the thing settles down & problems are rectified at
their end.
Jane ONeill
Melbourne Storm Chasers
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021
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Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 16:13:56 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: What do you think??
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Storms have popped up in W Qld. I wonder if the odd one is a supercell. The
rounded backed on has a slight v-notch shape to it but not the best example.
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/temp/991222/storm01.jpg
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/temp/991222/storm02.jpg
Perhaps a taste of things to come.
Jimmy Deguara
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022
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: AMA at TNPN
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 16:34:45 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Low maxima in Western NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I notice some pretty low temps (for the stations concerned) in Western
NSW today.
For the 6 hrs to 3pm places like Cobar (18), Wilcannia (18), Bourke AP AWS (19)
had not got to 20. Brewarrina and White Cliffs both got to 21. I am more
used to seeing these places mentioned in the context of the highest
in NSW.
Patrick
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023
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low maxima in Western NSW
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 16:50:35 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
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>
>
>
> I notice some pretty low temps (for the stations concerned) in Western
> NSW today.
>
> For the 6 hrs to 3pm places like Cobar (18), Wilcannia (18), Bourke AP AWS (19)
> had not got to 20. Brewarrina and White Cliffs both got to 21. I am more
> used to seeing these places mentioned in the context of the highest
> in NSW.
>
> Patrick
With Bourke getting 48mm of rain in the 6 hours to 1500 I'm not
surprised that the maxima are so low. (Maxima 15 below average in
inland Australia have been so commonplace in the last two months that
I've almost become blase about them).
Blair
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024
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Storms in NW NSW / SW QLD
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 15:42:01 +0930
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Its time like this that there needs to be a radar out there.
Nice storms over Bathurst Island at the moment and some inland - flamin hot
here today!
Paul.
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025
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Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 14:23:59 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Very hot on the west coast
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hottest day for the summer so far here on the lower west coast.
Currently at 2:15pm WST:
Perth City 38.5C
Swanbourne Beach 39.3C
Rottnest Island 36.5C
Jandakott 37.2C
Mandurah 38.3C
Jacob
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026
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Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 17:20:03 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Low maxima in Western NSW - change easily
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I found, (as well as those others in the group on the big chase), that
temps out there can vary rapidly from one day to another as the weather
changes from sun to rain, even the same afternoon. I suppose that the
higher humidity has a lot to do with that. When it rained we thought about
jumpers and when the sun came out you were sweltering. The weather in those
areas I suppose form the continental air masses that affect the coastal
areas and at this stage there has been no real consistent heatwaves. It has
given me some idea of the weather that is experienced out there and it has
changed my concept of conditions out there.
Jimmy Deguara
At 16:50 22/12/99 +1100, you wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > I notice some pretty low temps (for the stations concerned) in Western
> > NSW today.
> >
> > For the 6 hrs to 3pm places like Cobar (18), Wilcannia (18), Bourke AP
> AWS (19)
> > had not got to 20. Brewarrina and White Cliffs both got to 21. I am more
> > used to seeing these places mentioned in the context of the highest
> > in NSW.
> >
> > Patrick
>
>With Bourke getting 48mm of rain in the 6 hours to 1500 I'm not
>surprised that the maxima are so low. (Maxima 15 below average in
>inland Australia have been so commonplace in the last two months that
>I've almost become blase about them).
>
>Blair
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027
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Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 17:23:30 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Storms in NW NSW / SW QLD
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
There is a radar at Cobar but it is not part of the Bureau online service.
On the Big Chase, we did visit a few of the radar installations and that
was one of them. There was no rain nearby so we didn't get to look at the
radar itself. We did see the newer automatic balloons get sent up though.
I would doubt though that the storms in NW NSW would show up on radar. Try
the Charleville radar but keep in mind that the it underestimates so I am
told.
Jimmy Deguara
At 15:42 22/12/99 +0930, you wrote:
>Its time like this that there needs to be a radar out there.
>
>Nice storms over Bathurst Island at the moment and some inland - flamin hot
>here today!
>
>Paul.
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028
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 18:42:10 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Storms going off here
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Howdy all. Heavy rain, squally winds, thunder & lightning going off
here!
First storm off the ocean - and its wonderful. Anyone got the chance
look at the radar
Paul
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029
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 20:27:03 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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The Telegraph has been made aware of the computer models somehow, not by
me, but I doubt their ability to pick this without a prod from somebody.
Anyway the article goes on to compare the forecast models to last years
disaster.
The article then goes right off the fact scale describing the low as a "
super cell " .
It is quite interesting reading.
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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030
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms going off here
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 20:38:51 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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Taking lots of photos I hope !
----- Original Message -----
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Wednesday, 22 December 1999 20:12
Subject: aus-wx: Storms going off here
> Howdy all. Heavy rain, squally winds, thunder & lightning going off
> here!
>
> First storm off the ocean - and its wonderful. Anyone got the chance
> look at the radar
>
> Paul
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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031
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chase tomorrow??
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 20:35:02 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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There is a lot of middle layer cloud out that way and it is a worry, perhaps
a chase towards Goulburn may provide some return.
You should not hit by a pre-trough NW wind this time round.
The only chasing I will be doing is what window at work to look out from.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Wednesday, 22 December 1999 14:40
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chase tomorrow??
> I think I might give tomorrow a miss but will see how it looks for Friday
> as the system approaches. There is too much risk with the edge of the
> upper level moisture to clear NW NSW at this stage the storms will then
> be in no man's land but I will keep tabs on models. If you are interested
> do ring.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 13:18 22/12/99 +1100, you wrote:
> >Hi folks,
> >
> >Things are starting to look favourable for conditions in NW NSW and SW
> >Qld. I am going to check how things go this evening and then head out for
> >Bourke tomorrow. If there are any mad people interested, please e-mail me
> >personally of your interest in going. This will only be for as long as
> >this system goes through and perhaps we may head back in a few days time.
> >You may want to chase in a separate car for that fact if you can only do
a
> >couple of days.
> >
> >We will need to leave here around 6am. I believe there is potential for
> >good action. So it is Thursday and Friday at this stage that is the plan.
> >
> >My e-mail by the way is jdeguara at ihug.com.au and phone 96271843
> >
> >Jimmy Deguara
> >
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> >message.
> >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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032
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 21:57:07 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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wx-chase
Subject: aus-wx: Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
The BoM sent me a 2hr 3D radar sequence of the Dec 10, Boonah-Redland
Bay supercell. Some excellent imagery there! There's 3D, and RHI/high
resolution radar. It appears the storm actually attained a height of
20km, possibly more!!!.. The reason being, the white tops indicate
heights to 20km/66,000ft, but does the bright red tops mean it
overshoots the limit of radar??? Not sure - but very impressive!
They've been uploaded to BSCH in the recent events section, goto:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/recentevents.htm
To have a look! The damage report of this storm is at the bottom of the
page.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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033
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 22:04:38 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Gday Anthony & all.
Excellent stuff.One question though.
How do you measure that the storm reached 20km? I thought the colours
displayed on the 3d radar exhibited either tmps within the storm or some
rainfall reflectivity (or hail as the case was).
The axis on the right has increments of 4km to show height of the 3d
storm image - with the maximum being 12km - given that storm overshoots
this mark by some - on brief periods but not by a huge %.
Given that on the 10.12.99 soundings located the Trop at 104mb or 16281m
it means that the storm would have overshot at least 1 - 3.7 kms into
the Trop. Now Im wondering if thats possible - any atmosphere experts
out there?
I thought that the resultant increase in temps would be efective enough
to restrict further invasion and "cap" any overshoot (seeing that the
temp inversion gains between + 3c at 17528m to +10c at 20km.
If it is able to - and Im looking for our experts here to clarify - then
it would have surely been a "super" cell.
I tried to get the JCU image (which would show temps at the top of the
storm that could have been compared to the soundings) but to no luck.
Thoughts & comments please.
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034
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 22:15:55 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Anthony - some more questions for ya!
Another question re: storm (last email stats was taken of the 12z
soundings)
If it did reach so high - what influence did the Jetstream have on it?
I note that the maximum jet on that day was 8o knots at 12km - higher
then that the jet decreased significantly to be only 56knots at the
trop. Would this have sheared the top layer off the storm - ie the
middle layer was moving or being pushed faster then the top layer? I
thought that a good jet was needed higher up in the storm?
Some more questions.........
Paul.
Ps my guess is that the Storm was about 13km high - but thats just a
guess!! It will be interesting to find out though what others think.
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| Document: 991222.htm
Updated: 28 December 1999 |
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