Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx]
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 23 December 1999

    From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]              Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
002 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
003 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]        Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
004 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
005 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]                New Pic's Are
006 "Patrick Tobin" [patricktobin at ozemail.com.au]  April hailstorm - Audit Office review of BOM
007 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]         Summer so far in NZ
008 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au                       Summer so far in NZ
009 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au             Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
010 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]         Possible tropical storm development Coral Sea
011 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Holy Supercells Storm Man!..!  And Merry Christmas!
012 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]             Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
013 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
014 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.  Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
015 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au             More great weather
016 "Dane Newman" [dpn at bigpond.com]                Storms east of Melbourne. 
017 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        An extraordinary burst of warmth in Alaska
018 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]            Premature Year Years wish list
019 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]           Congestus developing
020 "Dane Newman" [dpn at bigpond.com]                Beautiful Cb
021 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au             Current obs.
022 "weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]     Storm in Western Sydney
023 "James Pickett" [juxie_69 at hotmail.com]         Tropical low  in Coral Sea.
024 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]           An extraordinary burst of warmth in Alaska
025 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
026 "Rod Aikman" [raikman at hotmail.com]             Thunder....at last!
027 "weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]     Storm in Western Sydney
028 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]           Re: 
029 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]           Mime-Version: 1.0
030 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]           Pre Christmas get together on Mt Dandenong
031 "Nick Sykes" [njsykes at yahoo.com]               Merry Christmas and Victorian Storms
032 "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au]       Blaxland Storm and Merry Xmas Everyone
033 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]             jimmys email
034 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]            Storm in Western Suburbs
035 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    Tropical low  in Coral Sea.
036 Mark Little [mark at brigadoon.apana.org.au]      New Prototype of Weather Observation Program.
037 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Western Sydney Storm
038 "James Pickett" [juxie_69 at hotmail.com]         New to aussie weather.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
Date: Sat, 25 Dec 1999 23:23:59 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
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Hi Paul,

 
> I note that the maximum jet on that day was 8o knots at 12km - higher
> then that the jet decreased significantly to be only 56knots at the
> trop. Would this have sheared the top layer off the storm - ie the
> middle layer was moving or being pushed faster then the top layer? I
> thought that a good jet was needed higher up in the storm?
> 
> Some more questions.........
> 
> Paul.
> Ps my guess is that the Storm was about 13km high - but thats just a
> guess!! It will be interesting to find out though what others think.

Anthony is better with the really technical stuff, but from my own
visual observations the storm was well over 13km high - more like 15 -
16km .. but i'm sure Anthony will explain his reasons for stating the
storm was possibly 20km high..
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002
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 23:49:21 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
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Hi Paul and all,  I am replying to two of your emails here,

Paul Mossman wrote:
> 
> Gday Anthony & all.
> 
> Excellent stuff.One question though.
> 
> How do you measure that the storm reached 20km? I thought the colours
> displayed on the 3d radar exhibited either tmps within the storm or some
> rainfall reflectivity (or hail as the case was).

Your reading of radar is incorrect Paul - you're getting confused
between the RHI/high res 2D images, and the 3D scans.

The RHI/high res 2D images, are the ones with the pretty colours, ie
greens/pinks/reds/creams - it has a precipitation radar on the top half
(high res), and it has an RHI scan (a vertical slice through the
atmosphere).  It is these images that the colours correspond to
different intensities.  I told Sue (from the BoM), not to worry about
putting the scale in, as it just takes up extra time, and I already knew
the scale from previous images they have sent me.

For the RHI/high res ONLY, the scale is as follows:

Dark Blue = 10dbz
Light blue = 20dbz
Aqua = 30dbz
Yellow = 35dbz
Green = 40dbz
Pink = 44dbz
Red = 52dbz
First transition between red/white = 60dbz
Cream = 67dbz
White = 70dbz

For those wondering what the intensities are in mm/hr, it is as follows
(approximately);

10dbz = 0.2
20dbz = 0.6
30dbz = 2.7
40dbz = 12
50dbz = 49
60dbz = 205
70dbz = 865

The dbz scale is logarithmic, hence the reason why it rises slowly, and
then beings to increase very rapidly.

The RHI scans are *not* meant for the heights!  Hence the reason why the
scans have been cutoff at around the 14km mark, as anything above that
doesn't show up very well on the RHI scans.  The heights on RHI are
simply for measuring how high intense echoes go up into the atmosphere.

That's what the 3D radar is for, that is - the images that show the
storms approximately in 3D.  The scale on 3D radar corresponds to the
associated height.  The scale is as follows:

(km/ft)

Dark green = 2.5/8200
Light green = 5/16400
Yellow = 7.5/24.6
Light Brown = 10km/32800
Dark brown = 12.50km/41000
Grey = 15km/49200
Grey/White = 17.5km/57400
White = 18km-20km

Radar scale ends at 20km.

If you look at the 3D radar, you can clearly see that there are
significant white tops there, indicating the storm to be at least
18-20km high.

> The axis on the right has increments of 4km to show height of the 3d
> storm image - with the maximum being 12km - given that storm overshoots
> this mark by some - on brief periods but not by a huge %.

Not sure if you're looking at the same radar as I am, but all but 2 of
the images in sequence on the RHI scan are above 12km.  But as said
before, the RHI scan itself is not meant to determine the height -
rather just give you a vertical slice of the storm.

> Given that on the 10.12.99 soundings located the Trop at 104mb or 16281m
> it means that the storm would have overshot at least 1 - 3.7 kms into
> the Trop. Now Im wondering if thats possible - any atmosphere experts
> out there?

Quite possible, thunderstorms can overshoot many kilometres, but the
best way is to see how far it overshoots the EL , as
the tropopause isn't where the EL always is (especially since sometimes
the EL doesn't exist!)

> I thought that the resultant increase in temps would be efective enough
> to restrict further invasion and "cap" any overshoot (seeing that the
> temp inversion gains between + 3c at 17528m to +10c at 20km.

I emailed the list just recently, explaining how an updraft can
overshoot the EL, here is some of it:



It can be a somewhat difficult concept to grasp, but think of a parcel
of air rising, like a ball down the hill.  The steeper the slope, (ie,
the larger the difference between the air parcel and ELR), the faster
the ball will roll (the faster an updraft will rise).  Eventually,
there'll come a time when the slope will come to a zero gradient (the
parcel of air will reach the EL), and eventually come to an incline and
the ball will slow down (the air is no longer bouyant, and wants to
sink).  This process takes time though, it still has momentum from its
drop (momentum from its rapid ascent), and it'll climb up the incline
for a small distance (overshoot the EL).  The amount the ball will rise
will depend on (the amount the air will rise will depend on:)

- The slope of the incline (the difference of the ELR and air parcel
line, this can be thought of negative CAPE, or CIN - Convective
Inhibition).
- The speed of whaich the ball was going down the slope (the speed of
which the air was rising).

Considering some updrafts speeds are well in excess of 100km/h - it's
not surprising that it may take a while for the air to slow down.



The April 14 Sydney supercell may have had overshoots to 18km, that's
6km above the EL!  Many severe supercell storms will have overshoots in
the order of several kilometres - inspection of the 3D radar imagery
will show you 2 storms with significant overshoots.  Remember - the EL
isn't static, it's dynamic, forever changing - and it shouldn't be seen
as a large capping of convection, rather just inhibiting further
convection, and slowing the updraft parcel down.

> If it is able to - and Im looking for our experts here to clarify - then
> it would have surely been a "super" cell.

I'm no expert, but you'll have to put up with my opinion anyway! :)

> I tried to get the JCU image (which would show temps at the top of the
> storm that could have been compared to the soundings) but to no luck.

This won't do what you want it to do, an overshoot in the order of a few
100 metres to a km or so wide won't show up on a JCU image!!!  This is
high resolution radar, that's been zoomed in on the focus subject. 
Also, the storm itself will be colder than its surroundings anyway - so
it won't give you a very good estimate compared to 3D radar!

Paul Mossman wrote:
> 
> Hey Anthony - some more questions for ya!

Oh goodie! 
 
> Another question re: storm (last email stats was taken of the 12z
> soundings)
> 
> If it did reach so high - what influence did the Jetstream have on it?

Umm - at 20km high, you won't find much of a jet!!!

> I note that the maximum jet on that day was 8o knots at 12km - higher
> then that the jet decreased significantly to be only 56knots at the
> trop. Would this have sheared the top layer off the storm - ie the
> middle layer was moving or being pushed faster then the top layer? I
> thought that a good jet was needed higher up in the storm?

Ok - I understand what you have said here, but I believe that you may
have misunderstood the concept of a thunderstorm.  The actual
thunderstorm itself, did not reach 20km (ie, the anvil), however - the
overshoot did.  The average height of the anvil, was around 14km high -
the overshoots went higher though.

Ok - a few things here...

a) 12km high is much higher then the 'middle layer' of the atmosphere
b) When CAPE's (ie instability), starts getting strong enough to push
through the EL in the order of several km, an 80kn jet will not shear
the top off.
c) Yes, a good jet is needed higher up in thee storm - for the anvil, I
like to think of it as an 'exhaust fan,' but you'll find 200-300mb
normally contains the strongest winds, and they normally significantly
decrease after this, allowing the formation of a tall overshoot to form.

Essentially, what you want, is a wind profile that backs (ie, swings
anti-clockwise and increases) with height.  This will only occur to a
certain level, eventually the wind shear slackens off.  

Most well developed storms do lean slightly, and this is needed for
their updrafts/downdrafts not to be caught up with each other.  That's
one of the reasons why some tropical thunderstorm just go up, then go
down - the updraft eventually can't hold itself anymore, and it rains on
the updraft - thus killing it.  On the other hand, one reason why
supercells are thought to be so 'successful' is the way they can
interact with the jetstream.  There is a point of which thunderstorms
can be killed by too much shear, I've seen it before when udprafts are
too weak - but 80kn is not nearly enough!

> Some more questions.........
> 
> Paul.
> Ps my guess is that the Storm was about 13km high - but thats just a
> guess!! It will be interesting to find out though what others think.

See what I have written at the beginning of this email - going by the
misleading RHI scans, yes.  Going by the more accurate, and reliable,
made-for-determining-height 3D radar - the level is around 18-20km.

I hope this helps you some way Paul.
  
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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003
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 15:12:27 +0000 (GMT)
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Hi folks,

	My take on supercell overhoots - yep, you can get
a few big ones (several km).  Overshoots of that magnitude
do make sense to me although they poke into regions
of negative buoyancy.  Below the equilibrium level 
(buoyancy = 0) the (positive) buoyancy *force* is accelerating 
an undiluted air parcel upwards.  So,  if no environmental
air would get entrained into an updraught parcel,  the parcel
would actually speed up until it reaches its EL.  
Resulting updraught speeds well over 100 km/h are not uncommon.
At the EL the parcel 'puts the brakes on', i.e. it starts
decelerating.  It takes a while before it comes to a complete
stop. 

	In terms of updraughts getting sheared apart,  a
healthy updraught is "stiff" enough to withstand even 
strong shear.  The jet might just think that it is
flowing around a weird, tall, slim mountain that wasn't there
the day before. 

Cheers,  Harald


-- 
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273	fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
------------------------------------------------------
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004
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 12:08:14 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Harald and all:
 
>       My take on supercell overhoots - yep, you can get
> a few big ones (several km).  Overshoots of that magnitude
> do make sense to me although they poke into regions
> of negative buoyancy.  Below the equilibrium level 
> (buoyancy = 0) the (positive) buoyancy *force* is accelerating 
> an undiluted air parcel upwards.  So,  if no environmental
> air would get entrained into an updraught parcel,  the parcel
> would actually speed up until it reaches its EL.  
> Resulting updraught speeds well over 100 km/h are not uncommon.
> At the EL the parcel 'puts the brakes on', i.e. it starts
> decelerating.  It takes a while before it comes to a complete
> stop. 

This explanation of updrafts that overshoot their equilibrium level is
exactly right according to my understanding.  As long as positive CAPE is
present and as long as the updraft core remains undiluted by the
environmental air, it continues to accelerate upward.  The outside regions
of the largest updrafts do mix with the environmental air and are less
buoyant than the core.  Once the updrafts reaches the equilibrium level,
just as Harald states above, it does overshoot and is increasingly
negatively buoyant (colder) than its surroundings as it rises.  If is for
this reason that IR channels in satellite observations can not be used to
estimate the storm and cloud summit.  You can not compare cloud top
temperatures, once they have risen above the equilibrium level, to the
environmental temperature curve in order to determine storm heights because
at those heights the updraft air is much colder than its environment. 
Typically, the most energetic updraft cores produce cloud domes and
detectable echo 3 to 5 km above equilibrium.

>       In terms of updraughts getting sheared apart,  a
> healthy updraught is "stiff" enough to withstand even 
> strong shear.  The jet might just think that it is
> flowing around a weird, tall, slim mountain that wasn't there
> the day before. 

As Harald points out and as Doppler measurements confirm, the updraft (and
mesocyclone in supercells) is an obstacle to environmental flow.  This was
verified in our earliest Doppler measurements and was earlier also found by
aircraft flight around storms, both in the former Soviet Union and the US.

It was once believed that shear destroyed updrafts.  And it does do so to
the weaker updrafts.  However, as discussed here earlier, shear is very
favorable to the production of intense and long-lasting sustained updrafts.
 Storm relative shear (and the jet aloft) removes precipitation from around
the updraft after it has been forced outward in the surrounding anvil. 
Thus, these strong storm-relative winds carry it that precip away, thus
keeping the updraft relatively clear of water loading and downdraft which
would mix with inflow in low levels and tend to kill the updraft.  Further,
shear keeps the low-level gust front tucked up near the precipitation
cascade area on the inflow side of the storm.  This also places the gust
front and its associated low-level convergence beneath the updraft.  Thus,
the outflow does not accelerate outward and away from the storm and
therefore is kept from displacing warm, unstable air from beneath the
updraft and further, is kept from being pulled upward into the updraft in
significant quantities.  In this way, and only in supercells and well
organized multicellular storms, the updraft and down draft work together in
a "symbiotic" (mutually beneficial) fashion.  As Anthony explained, in
weakly sheared environments the updraft become water loaded and is replaced
by downdraft, thus limiting individual updrafts to only 10 to 30 minutes
lifetimes.  Shear is also the origin of helicity which concentrates energy
in longer wavelengths further decreasing mixing and turbulence within the
updraft. 

Thus, Harald and I have the same understanding.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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005
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 02:51:24 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
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To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: New Pic's Are
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All On the Aussie Wx list,

MJ here, to all have a happy and merry christmas and a happy new year,
btw the New pic are up on my site for those who haven't yet seen them,
the first Storm report will be up soon when i get the other Pictures
back from the Photo Lab, Well enjoy the new pic's at
http://users.wantree.com.au/~mjd/photography/picbydate3.htm

and We here in Perth had a Temp of 39.6 C yesterday, going for 33 C
today.

MJ.

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006
From: "Patrick Tobin" [patricktobin at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: April hailstorm - Audit Office review of BOM
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 08:13:51 +1100
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The Audit Office Review of the BoM following the Sydney April hailstorm is
now on the web at http://www.anao.gov.au/Whatsnew.html

It is Audit Report no 22 and is in PDF format.

The report is 127 pages but the summary and recommendations are a bit
shorter.

I haven't gone through the report in any sort of detail but note their is
some discussion about issues dear to some on this list ie Cost recovery and
fee for service.

The following extracts show some of the flavour of the discussion. As I said
I haven't gone through the report in any detail - the extracts could be out
of context and not reflective of the whole report.

I strongly suggest that members of the list interested these matters read
the report and we get some discussion going. It may be time for some of our
voices to again be heard in government circles.

Patrick

............................................................................

007
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Summer so far in NZ
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 10:33:45 +1300
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----------
> From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Summer so far in NZ
> Date: Wednesday, 22 December 1999 17:08
> 
> 
> 
> Whilst on the subject of the season so far in various parts of the world,
> I was curious as to what sort of summer has so far been experienced in
> places like Christchurch.
> 
> Looking at the models suggests a lot of cool air has been over many
> parts of NZ for a considerable part  of the last few months. Also I know
> some friends who have recently moved from Yorkshire, UK to Christchurch
> and have commented that they haven't really noticed much change in
> the weather (apart from the - occasionally seen - sun being about 10
> degrees higher in the sky).
> Patrick

 Summer really hasn't begun here in Christchurch yet. It's certainly a lot
colder than the previous 2 Decembers, with more cool, cloudy, and often
damp southerly winds. For example yesterday it only go to 14 C. Another
cold southerly is predicted for late on Christmas Eve, spreading over the
North Island on Christmas Day. Possibly a white Chritmas in alpine areas.
Let's hope we don't get another such southerly on the night of the 31st.

 I'll be leaving this mailing list for the next 1 1/2 weeks, as I'll be
mostly away, and don't wish to come back to 300 plus emails in my inbox.
When I'm back, I'll report on anything interesting.

Ben Tichborne 
Christchurch
NZ
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008
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 08:56:56 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Summer so far in NZ
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Thanks Ben - Best wishes for Christmas and New Year to everyone on the list..

Patrick


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009
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: "        -         *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dec 10 Supercell 3D Radar
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 08:02:04 +0930
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Thanx all those who contibuted. I will have to print it off and digest it!

paul.
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010
X-Originating-IP: [203.2.218.1]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Possible tropical storm development Coral Sea
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 14:30:38 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hello all.....
The PCMDI 144 hour plot from 199122212 is indicating development of a 
potential cyclone in the Coral Sea on Dec 28th.
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/fiorino/wxmap/ngp.ausnz.htm
Of interest is the plot on Sea Surface winds which shows a tightening of a 
clockwise rotation. Predicted central pressure 12Z 28th is around 1000 Hpa
Cheers Halden



______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com

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011
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 08:40:48 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Holy Supercells Storm Man!..!  And Merry Christmas!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I'm sorry to do this but...

WE HAVE NORTH-EAST WINDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

At last the NE drought has broken!!!!!!!!!  The ridge will slowly move
off the coast in the next few days, so these NE winds should stay - oooh
yeah, that feels nice.

I'd also like to take the opportunity, to wish everyone a very merry,
and above all safe Christmas and New Year.  I look forward to learning
from everyone!

I'm going to sit outside and take these NE winds in...
 
An SDS ridden Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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012
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 11:53:21 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

To the contrary. I found it very uninteresting or perhaps I should say 
dissapointing. All it showed was how dangerous it is for those without the
expertise to interpret computer models. They claimed the models from last
year are very similar to this year. Perhaps to the public who merely see
squiggles on a page that may be true. But any experienced meteorologist
could have pointed out enough differences to throw cold water on their
story. It was irresponsible of them to print such garbage and for the editor
to see it worthy of a comment was pretty laughable.

It's great for the media to create interesting weather stories but this was
classic fearmongering at it's best.
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


----------
>From: "Michael Thompson" 
>To: 
>Subject: aus-wx: Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
>Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 20:27
>

> The Telegraph has been made aware of the computer models somehow,  not by
> me, but I doubt their ability to pick this without a prod from somebody.
> Anyway the article goes on to compare the forecast models to last years
> disaster.
>
> The article then goes right off the fact scale describing the low as a "
> super cell " .
>
> It is quite interesting reading.
>
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://thunder.simplenet.com
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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013
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 12:19:09 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> 
> To the contrary. I found it very uninteresting or perhaps I should say 
> dissapointing. All it showed was how dangerous it is for those without the
> expertise to interpret computer models. They claimed the models from last
> year are very similar to this year. Perhaps to the public who merely see
> squiggles on a page that may be true. But any experienced meteorologist
> could have pointed out enough differences to throw cold water on their
> story. It was irresponsible of them to print such garbage and for the editor
> to see it worthy of a comment was pretty laughable.
> 
> It's great for the media to create interesting weather stories but this was
> classic fearmongering at it's best.
> 
Hear, hear. 

Another interesting angle I've seen in a newspaper today - in an 
article on Y2K panic (or lack thereof) in the general population, a
Coles-Myer spokesperson was quoted as attributing increased sales of
candles in Queensland, WA and SA to the arrival of the cyclone season.
Entirely reasonable for the first two, but South Australia?

(I guess it's just about plausible that a fast-moving SE-tracking 
cyclone of the Vance or Bobby type might one day retain its TC status
into the far west of SA, but it's not something I'm holding my breath
waiting for).

(and I won't get started on the Sydney Morning Herald's angle on
the Audit Office report. The ANAO report (or to be more precise, the
summary and recommendations - any more is for the masochist) is well
worth reading, but I wouldn't wrap my fish and chips in the 'Herald's
effort).

Blair Trewin
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014
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 13:09:19 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

[snip a lot]

I happen to have kept copies of the GASP run done last year
and this year. Besides the obvious lessons that the author
needs in reading models/charts etc., key to what will happen
with that expected low will be the upper-air jet that was
responsible for the complex lows that formed last year
together with some snow on the alps. Other than that, the
forecast low this year comes from the opposite latitudes
to that which is happening this year. Warm-cored  this
year v/s cold-cored last year. How could anyone say that
the situation is remotely similar other than the mention
that it is a fluke to have "a low" forecast to form in the
same region at the same time of year, two years running.

Needless to say, I've got copies of a number of model
runs and would have loved what was previously available
through testing at the BoM Olympic site (GASP I can get
through BMRC), that I'll watch with interest. In any 
case, the boats will be heading down the coast with
full spinakers(?) furled out riding a decent N/NE.
We could see the race record tumble in these conditions
if the lead boats beat the forecast low to Hobart. I
do sincerely hope that this year does not repeat itself
in terms of the timing of severe weather. With many
model runs beginning to line-up a bit, there's no
doubt im my mind that the race will experience some
severe weather again:-( The timing of this severe weather
with the prompt and timely issue of better forecasts will
be the definative issue this year. I hope all the 
sailors have PLD's fitted, just in case.

As for the BoM Audit Report, I've got that printed out
and bound ready for gawking at over the XMAS break.

Please have a safe, storms-at-a-safe-distance XMAS
and New Year.

P.S. I'll get back-copies of Issue-16 Storm News to 
new ASWA members in the new year. Winter Issue will be
out before the Spring/Summer Issues, we hope. Finally
got the archive stuff uploaded successfully!

Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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015
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: "        -         *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: More great weather
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 12:35:38 +0930
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id WAA16184
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Howdy all.

Have a look at the radar for here - nice heavy storm again moving through -
looks like some more heavy rain.

Storm last night lasted for 4 - 5 hours eventually breaking down into rain
depression - only 15mm received at my place but some heavier falls at Berrimah
- Palmerston way.

Thunder, lightning and the works - ohhh this is great!!

Paul at Darwin.
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016
From: "Dane Newman" [dpn at bigpond.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Storms east of Melbourne. 
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 14:33:01 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
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Hi all, yesterday some isolated storms developed on the ranges to the north and east of the city and again now( 2.30pm) there is some activity showing up on radar over the ranges to the east and northeast of the city. I can see some Tcu and Cb tops to the Ne and E although its a bit hard through the haze and scattered low cloud (Strato-Cu and small Cu) Some activity on the am radio, several crackles a minute. Too far away for my hand held lightning dector to go off yet. Doesnt look like we will get any storms here in the metro area, but a good chance Christmas Day and Boxing day, hope so anyway its been a long storm drought here. Dane.   
017 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: aus-wx: An extraordinary burst of warmth in Alaska To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 14:47:02 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com As a change from Australian weather, there has been an extraordinary burst of warmth, for mid-winter, in much of Alaska, thanks to a depression tracking over southern Alaska (well north of its usual track for this time of year) and very mild air of tropical origin being advected north on its eastern flank. Temperatures as high as 16 C have been reported in the interior (and in the middle of the night at that - not that the time makes a lot of difference, as this region only has a few hours of daylight at this time of year). Fairbanks has been a typical example; after reaching -15 for the first time since November 21 yesterday (a spell which included a low of -39 on Sunday), it rose further to +7 today. This is not a record for Fairbanks, which has reached +12 in December before, but it's still an impressive departure from normal (which at this time of year means maxima around -18 and minima around -28). Also spectacular have been the rates of snowmelt, with reports of snow cover of 30cm melting totally in the space of 6 hours. In some places snow has been melting so rapidly that it has been flooding buildings. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 018 X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 14:45:53 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Premature Year Years wish list Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ...that within the next few years, the collective talents of the ASWA can assemble enough kick arse video footage of Oz severe weather to market a video back to the Americans.... :) Have a good 'un all..... Phil 'Paisley' Bagust paisley at cobweb.com.au http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 019 X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 15:58:58 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Congestus developing Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There is congestus developing overhead and to the SW over the Metropolitan area of Sydney. It seems like if anything storms may develop. Will keep you all posted with any developments. It seems that the outflow from the weaker storms on the mtns and the NE wind is kicking these cells up. Like I said only congestus at this stage. Jimmy Deguara +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 020 From: "Dane Newman" [dpn at bigpond.com] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Beautiful Cb Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 16:15:52 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Magnificant Cb to the north of here with overshooting top, currently(4.10pm) pink on radar and just SE of Seymour. Should have gone up there I suppose. Even my hand held lightning detector is going off. Crackles every second or so on AM Radio. I would also like to take this opportunity to wish everyone on this list and every member of ASWA a very happy Christmas and i hope the New Year brings you all success and happiness and plenty of good storms. Dane (Kilsyth) Melbourne.
021 From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Current obs. Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 15:02:22 +0930 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id AAA08737 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Howdy all. The L.T.S. (Lunch Time storm) has now degenerated into a massive rain area - have a look at the Radar and you will see wide areas of rain - consistent here atm - heavy in bursts. Paul at darwin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 022 From: "weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Storm in Western Sydney Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 17:45:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Very Active storm developing right on top of the Mt Druitt, Penrith area. The storm has formed a broad band that seems to be moving southish, although is backbuilding on itself atm. The storm has gone from virtually nothing to red in 20 minutes, and their is additional activity everywhere. The storm has been dropping some lovely CG's as well. Will keep posted Daniel Weatherhead ----- Original Message ----- From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Sent: Thursday, December 23, 1999 3:58 PM Subject: aus-wx: Congestus developing > There is congestus developing overhead and to the SW over the Metropolitan > area of Sydney. It seems like if anything storms may develop. Will keep you > all posted with any developments. > > It seems that the outflow from the weaker storms on the mtns and the NE > wind is kicking these cells up. Like I said only congestus at this stage. > > Jimmy Deguara > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 023 X-Originating-IP: [203.25.188.104] From: "James Pickett" [juxie_69 at hotmail.com] To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Tropical low in Coral Sea. Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 06:44:42 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi to all, Only new to this freaky weather mailing list! At current i am extremely interested in any further developments with the small disturbance in the coral sea. As i am sure you are all aware, weather patterns up here in central Queensland have been extremely boring, i have almost forgotten what a cumulonimbus cloud looks like. At present some models are predicting a tropical low in the north western coral sea within 72 hours, they say that there is a low to moderate chance of it developing further. It would be of great interest if anyone could shed some light on this matter. Thanks and Merry Xmas. James (Whitsundays). ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 024 From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: RE: aus-wx: An extraordinary burst of warmth in Alaska Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 17:10:54 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Must be one helluva cold front coming ... But interesting given that here in Brisbane I was shivering in 14C "cold" yesterday morning at Mt. Crosby. As it turns out I would have been warmer in the Alaskan winter!! >snip Subject: aus-wx: An extraordinary burst of warmth in Alaska As a change from Australian weather, there has been an extraordinary burst of warmth, for mid-winter, in much of Alaska, thanks to a depression tracking over southern Alaska (well north of its usual track for this time of year) and very mild air of tropical origin being advected north on its eastern flank. Temperatures as high as 16 C have been reported in the interior (and in the middle of the night at that - not that the time makes a lot of difference, as this region only has a few hours of daylight at this time of year). Fairbanks has been a typical example; after reaching -15 for the first time since November 21 yesterday (a spell which included a low of -39 on Sunday), it rose further to +7 today. This is not a record for Fairbanks, which has reached +12 in December before, but it's still an impressive departure from normal (which at this time of year means maxima around -18 and minima around -28). Also spectacular have been the rates of snowmelt, with reports of snow cover of 30cm melting totally in the space of 6 hours. In some places snow has been melting so rapidly that it has been flooding buildings. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 025 From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 19:25:18 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com You have mistaken my inflection of word ' interesting ' as in interesting for all the wrong reasons. - For the obvious mistakes - for the way the article was written, like a me trying to write an article on womens fashion. Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: Mark Hardy [mhardy at magna.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Sent: Thursday, 23 December 1999 11:53 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather > To the contrary. I found it very uninteresting or perhaps I should say > dissapointing. All it showed was how dangerous it is for those without the > expertise to interpret computer models. They claimed the models from last > year are very similar to this year. Perhaps to the public who merely see > squiggles on a page that may be true. But any experienced meteorologist > could have pointed out enough differences to throw cold water on their > story. It was irresponsible of them to print such garbage and for the editor > to see it worthy of a comment was pretty laughable. > > It's great for the media to create interesting weather stories but this was > classic fearmongering at it's best. > _____________________________________________________ > Mark Hardy. > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. > Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060 > Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536. > Mobile 0414 642 739 > email: mhardy at theweather.com.au > _____________________________________________________ > > > ---------- > >From: "Michael Thompson" > >To: > >Subject: aus-wx: Telegraph article RE: Hobart Yacth race weather > >Date: Wed, 22 Dec 1999 20:27 > > > > > The Telegraph has been made aware of the computer models somehow, not by > > me, but I doubt their ability to pick this without a prod from somebody. > > Anyway the article goes on to compare the forecast models to last years > > disaster. > > > > The article then goes right off the fact scale describing the low as a " > > super cell " . > > > > It is quite interesting reading. > > > > > > Michael Thompson > > http://thunder.simplenet.com > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 026 X-Originating-IP: [203.27.197.60] From: "Rod Aikman" [raikman at hotmail.com] To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Thunder....at last! Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 20:10:05 EST Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everyone, Bendigo actually experienced a thunderstorm at 6.00 pm this evening, following an afternoon of steadily building congestus. A modest total of 6.5mm of rain was recorded in 20 minutes. I do not usually get all that excited about what Ray Kolmorgan would describe as "garden variety" thunderstorms, however when you have a situation where you have not experienced such an elusive phenomenon since November 21, any thunderstorm, no matter how meek and mild, is a welcome sight. I would like to also take the opportunity to wish every one on the list a merry Christmas. Rod Aikman, Bendigo, Vic. ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 027 From: "weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm in Western Sydney Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 20:23:46 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey everyone Well it was an interesting time in Western Sydney this afternoon. The storm had a very active base. At one stage rotation was evident although there was lots of scud so it may of been just the angle i was looking, however at some stages the scud reached all the way to the ground and stayed there for a few minutes. The rain flooded the Great Western Hwy at the base of the Blue Mountains, and submerged a football field at Glenbrook. Their was some small hail reported. I will get some rainfall obs soon as this storm narrowly missed the Rowing Venue at Penrith where the AWS is kept. This storm basically didn't move although the storm did itensify at different areas at different stages. If it did move it was in a westerly direction, possibly West Sth West. It began between Rooty Hill and Penrith, then seemed to move over to Penrith and dump its load from there. However the storm seemed to shoot up aagin when a gusty NE fired in. This is approxiamatey when the storm goes red for the second time. This is when the bases became more active and a rather big lowering began to form. I am sure Jimmy and Matt got some great photos on the scud cloud dancing underneath the bases. This storm had a very very active base scud wise, with scud everywhere. All in all a very rewarding afternoon. I also would like to wish everyone a very merry christmas, and a bug free new year Daniel Weatherhead ----- Original Message ----- From: weatherhead [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Sent: Thursday, December 23, 1999 5:45 PM Subject: aus-wx: Storm in Western Sydney > Very Active storm developing right on top of the Mt Druitt, Penrith area. > The storm has formed a broad band that seems to be moving southish, although > is backbuilding on itself atm. The storm has gone from virtually nothing to > red in 20 minutes, and their is additional activity everywhere. The storm > has been dropping some lovely CG's as well. > Will keep posted > Daniel Weatherhead > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Jimmy Deguara > To: > Sent: Thursday, December 23, 1999 3:58 PM > Subject: aus-wx: Congestus developing > > > > There is congestus developing overhead and to the SW over the Metropolitan > > area of Sydney. It seems like if anything storms may develop. Will keep > you > > all posted with any developments. > > > > It seems that the outflow from the weaker storms on the mtns and the NE > > wind is kicking these cells up. Like I said only congestus at this stage. > > > > Jimmy Deguara > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 028 X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 20:25:30 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Re: Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey James please introduce yourself to the list!!!! Michael and I might know you but the others.... Jimmy Deguara At 06:42 23/12/99 +0000, you wrote: >Hi to all, > Only new to this freaky weather mailing list! At current i am > extremely interested in any further developments with the small > disturbance in the coral sea. As i am sure you are all aware, weather > patterns up here in central Queensland have been extremely boring, i have > almost forgotten what a cumulonimbus cloud looks like. > At present some models are predicting a tropical low in the north > western coral sea within 72 hours, they say that there is a low to > moderate chance of it developing further. It would be of great interest > if anyone could shed some light on this matter. > Thanks and Merry Xmas. > James (Whitsundays). > > >______________________________________________________ >Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >message. >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 029 X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 20:40:55 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Mime-Version: 1.0 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com We have the storm on video I suppose you may have known we were chasing the storm in Western Sydney?? We went straight through the outer cell Werrington etc and then to Castlereagh Road and watched it from there and you know what else................ The best case of chase convergence... A guy we have never met not on the list nowhere met us on the side of the road chasing the same storm!!!! Yes this guy was astonished and thought that he was the only chaser in the world the usual story!!! He still is in shock!! His name is Steve by the way and will definitely be interested in coming to the meetings in future. Yes that whole storm formed totally as a result of convergence from outflow excellent example of it as the cumulus developed in the middle of the suburbs and nowhere else. Excellent storm system for a day when nothing was forecast. The most incredible feature of this storm was that within 5 minutes of holding the moisture basically holding the precipitation, it dumped it all over a large area of the storm...quite incredible really. Most of the dumping occurred in less than 5 minutes. Dann explains it quite well. And yes at one stage there was a lot of turning of the lower level cloud due to the interaction of the winds from various directions. Jimmy Deguara +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 030 From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Pre Christmas get together on Mt Dandenong Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 21:04:52 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ........(must be a day or so before Christmas ) from Andrew McDonald..... Hey all, The prospects of storms tomorrow has prompted this email.....I think it would be great if all (or as many as possible) of the Vic chasers got together tomorrow for a bit of a storm/Christmas celebration up on Mt Dandenong. I'm not even 100% sure if I'll be there but I'd be worth going up as there WILL (and I guarantee that there will) be storms within good viewing distance and it would be a good opportunity to say g'day to all (and thanks to the state reps) if possible.... I don't think that there will be a shortage of storms so make your way up there at about 8pm ish and see who else is about - Like I said before I have no guarantee that I'll be there but I'm sure a few if not many of you will be happy to turn up..... It'll be nice to say merry Christmas to all and view a few nice storms at the same time. (BTW - My forecast is for storms moving off the ranges tomorrow into the N and NE and E suburbs tomorrow so the Dandenongs could be really quite good - If we/they are not in the top carpark at the SW-N looking lookout then travel down the road to the NE-SE looking lookout to see if anyone is there) - If no one else is there you should still get some great views of the storms. TTYL and I hope that everyone has a Merry Christmas and a prosperous and Happy New Year (in terms of storms and other things)...hehehe TTYL Andrew McDonald +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 031 X-Apparently-From: From: "Nick Sykes" [njsykes at yahoo.com] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Merry Christmas and Victorian Storms Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 08:55:13 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.3825.400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I would firstly like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Let's hope everyone gets there wish of a sweet supercell :) I know it's my wish!!!! Looking mighty fine for the coming days for Victoria. Some ripper storms developed on the ranges this afternoon after the low cloud clear. I was kicking myself for not having a camera, one of my new years resolutions, to buy a camera. Theses storms went red on the Melbourne local radar. Moisture is continuing to be feed in from the east as the trough deepens from inland Australia. Humidity levels are already high for this part of the world and are expected to get higher. And with the trough deepening and plenty of daytime heating I'm expecting some beauty storms. My only fear is a rain situation may develop, but I wont think that, it's Christmas after all. If it does rain the Boxing day test is looking dodgy with not a fine day forecast for Melbourne in the outlook period ): Well, I'll be in Kerang over Chrissie therefore Melbourne will get great storms, it happened last year. Good Storms all Nick Sykes __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Thousands of Stores. Millions of Products. All in one place. Yahoo! Shopping: http://shopping.yahoo.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 032 From: "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Blaxland Storm and Merry Xmas Everyone Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 21:10:30 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Everyone,
 
I was on the way home from work in the train when I noticed this storm. As I passed through the Kingswood/Penrith area I noticed large amounts of water lying everywhere and the stormwater drains looked like rapids. By the time I got to where the storm was it was dying unfortunately and I didnt get to see the fantastic scud reported by both Daniel and my dad. At my place (Blaxland) I registered 22mm from this storm. The heaviest rain was from 6:10 to 6:20pm when I received 7.4mm.
 
I would like to take this oppurtunity to wish everyone on the Aussie Weather List and all Members of ASWA a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Hopefully the new century will bring plenty of exciting weather for us all to enjoy.
 
Matthew Piper
033 X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32) Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 21:43:18 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Subject: Re: aus-wx: jimmys email Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yep i 2nd everything Jimmy said Great RFB Great outer core punch Great Cg's and Lightning Great thunder Great green tinge (hail? most likely) Great turbulent base Great scud clouds getting sucked up Great chaser convergence Great storm And have a great xmas/NY everyone Matt Smith > > >We have the storm on video I suppose you may have known we were chasing the >storm in Western Sydney?? We went straight through the outer >cell Werrington etc and then to Castlereagh Road and watched it from >there and you know what else................ > >The best case of chase convergence... A guy we have never met not on the >list nowhere met us on the side of the road chasing the same storm!!!! Yes >this guy was astonished and thought that he was the only chaser in the >world the usual story!!! He still is in shock!! His name is Steve by the >way and will definitely be interested in coming to the meetings in future. > >Yes that whole storm formed totally as a result of convergence from >outflow excellent example of it as the cumulus developed in the middle of >the suburbs and nowhere else. > >Excellent storm system for a day when nothing was forecast. The most >incredible feature of this storm was that within 5 minutes of holding the >moisture basically holding the precipitation, it dumped it all over a large >area of the storm...quite incredible really. Most of the dumping occurred >in less than 5 minutes. > >Dann explains it quite well. And yes at one stage there was a lot of >turning of the lower level cloud due to the interaction of the winds from >various directions. > >Jimmy Deguara > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 034 Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 21:02:21 +1000 From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Storm in Western Suburbs Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Apart from 22 mm at Blaxland, anyone else have any rainfall information?? Cheers, Don W +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 035 Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 21:01:41 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropical low in Coral Sea. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi James, It's interesting that some of the computer models are picking this up - but I personally don't hold high hopes for good TC development - not too far south anyway :-( The jetstream (although only 50-70kn), will sit over QLD early next week, and gradually edging into the southern and central Coral Sea. However, in the northern area of the Coral Sea - shear should be weak enough to support TC development - it just depends on where it'll form/want to form - and where it moves. Unfortunately, most TC's want to move poleward. James Pickett wrote: > > Hi to all, > Only new to this freaky weather mailing list! At current i am extremely > interested in any further developments with the small disturbance in the > coral sea. As i am sure you are all aware, weather patterns up here in > central Queensland have been extremely boring, i have almost forgotten what > a cumulonimbus cloud looks like. > At present some models are predicting a tropical low in the north > western coral sea within 72 hours, they say that there is a low to moderate > chance of it developing further. It would be of great interest if anyone > could shed some light on this matter. > Thanks and Merry Xmas. > James (Whitsundays). > > ______________________________________________________ > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 036 From: Mark Little [mark at brigadoon.apana.org.au] Organization: Brigadoon - A part of the APANA Network To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: New Prototype of Weather Observation Program. Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 21:07:48 +1030 X-Mailer: KMail [version 1.0.17] X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id GAA12271 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Everyone, I have gone to the second prototype of my weather observation program. A brief description, low-res screen shots and sample output Web Page can be found at http://brigadoon.apana.org.au/software/WeatherScribe.html The interface, including the autocapture of video camera images is working, but the humidity calculations and observation unit conversions aren't completed yet. Currently the observation can be saved as a Web Page or placed into a database. The concept of displaying data from the database has been proved, but a user interface has not been started yet. Is there any value in being able to email the observation to another party? It could be in plain text like the web page or coded - either way is relatively simple. Would it be desireable to provide more control options for the format of the table on the web page? The program reads a template file and inserts the observation table into the template so it is easy to control the general format of the page. The table parameters, however, are currently hard coded. Any thoughts what features would be useful would be appreciated. Work pressures will mean that I won't be able to devote much time to this until February when I hope to freeze the requirements, make a proper design and start the real coding. Hoping you all have a Merry Christmas & A Happy New Year/Decade/Century/Millenium (unless you think it all happens next year :-] ) -- Mark Little "His fingers harping the net mesh;" - The Net-Menders by Brian Vrepont +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 037 From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Western Sydney Storm Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 22:09:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I had to be content to watch it go off like a bomb from here in the Illawarra. It was plainly visible on my bus ride home around 5.00-6.00pm, in that short time it went from a congestus clump with nice pileus, to a large mutlicell. Here in the southern Illawarra nothing close. The drought continues, well actually that is not a bad description as the grass around Windang / Warilla on sand is browning off. Michael > > > We have the storm on video I suppose you may have known we were chasing the > storm in Western Sydney?? We went straight through the outer > cell Werrington etc and then to Castlereagh Road and watched it from > there and you know what else................ > > The best case of chase convergence... A guy we have never met not on the > list nowhere met us on the side of the road chasing the same storm!!!! Yes > this guy was astonished and thought that he was the only chaser in the > world the usual story!!! He still is in shock!! His name is Steve by the > way and will definitely be interested in coming to the meetings in future. > > Yes that whole storm formed totally as a result of convergence from > outflow excellent example of it as the cumulus developed in the middle of > the suburbs and nowhere else. > > Excellent storm system for a day when nothing was forecast. The most > incredible feature of this storm was that within 5 minutes of holding the > moisture basically holding the precipitation, it dumped it all over a large > area of the storm...quite incredible really. Most of the dumping occurred > in less than 5 minutes. > > Dann explains it quite well. And yes at one stage there was a lot of > turning of the lower level cloud due to the interaction of the winds from > various directions. > > Jimmy Deguara > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 038 X-Originating-IP: [203.25.188.110] From: "James Pickett" [juxie_69 at hotmail.com] To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: New to aussie weather. Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 12:02:30 GMT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sorry guys, I figured that it would be a much better idea if i introduced myself first. Well, Originally from Sydney, and a member of Amos and soon to be ASWA, i had my sights set on Queenslands Whitsundays. It just so happens that i am there now, Airlie Beach infact. Work reasons of course, not weather related(yeah right!). Anyway, I have a very strong interest in the weather and have done so for many years. Although only 20 i can recall quite a few weather events, particularly in the Sydney region and could sit at a computer for hours monitoring anything with the word weather written on it. A weathernut? "yes", and having only joined the list today i am thrilled to see that i am not the only one and that there is just so much we can all talk about. I hope to get to know you all and once again wish each and everyone of you a Merry Christmas and exciting new century in weather. Cheers. James Pickett. ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Document: 991223.htm
Updated: 28 December 1999

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