Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx]
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 13 January 2000

    From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]              SE QLD Pictures (was: (Sub)Tropical Brisbane's Cold Air Cb's
002 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]             FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
003 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]                 Another Landspout in VIC
004 Dion Williams [onamission at start.com.au]        Re: ABC Tornado Doco
005 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]            LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
006 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]             FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
007 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
008 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
009 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]             FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
010 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
011 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
012 "David Croan" [wxbustchase at hotmail.com]        LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
013 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
014 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)          FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
015 "Anthony Spierings" [as029 at powerup.com.au]     Jet Contrails - WAS (Sub)Tropical Brisbane's Cold Air Cb's -
016 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]              Some comments on midget cyclones
017 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     Dry Line (was More articles??)
018 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]                 LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
019 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    FNMOC Is Back!!!
020 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]                 Supercells confirmed on SA/WA border
021 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]             FNMOC Is Back!!!
022 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]         ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
023 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]               Fw: NASA SATELLITE GREATLY IMPROVES ACCURACYOF TROPICAL RAIN
024 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]               Fw: NASA ADMINISTRATOR HIGHLIGHTS AGENCY'S ROLE IN IMPROVING

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 12:06:22 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD Pictures (was: (Sub)Tropical Brisbane's Cold Air Cb's - 
 in the middle of summer!!!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Everyone,

Today panned out a bit better than i expected.. with lots of Tcu and
some nice Cb's around.. I took some pictures wand have uploaded them to
the BSCH recent events section..

http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/reports/2000/january/12/12.htm

There are quite a few of them! But after our crappy storm season (yes
i'm whingeing about our season again) i would photograph anything with
vertical extent..

I only saw a handful of Cg's during the day.. but a storm just off the
coast gave off quite a nice show about an hour ago, with several
BIIIIIIG cg's and frequent in cloud lightning as the storm was peaking..

I'm ready for some more...

Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> Well, up here in the "sub-tropics" we had some nice cold air Cb's today,
> with 500mb temps crashing to a near, unheard of -15C  at  500mb, and -43C  at 
> 300mb.  Typically, summer 500mb temps should be -4 to -6C, and winter
> 500mb temps should be in the order of -14 to -16C.  So we essentially
> have a fairly average winter profile over us, with a summerish surface
> (if you can call the mid 20's summer!)
> 
> Some nice Cb's none the less...nice structure, and some good updrafts.
> All the anvils were weak, but some were photogenic in the Sun, mixed in
> with other TCU updrafts.  I also observed some hail shafts to my WNW,
> with the air being so cold, small hail was quite possible today.
> Unfortunately, the anvil cirrus covered the sky and killed everything
> early in the afternoon due to a weak upper flow :(
> 
> Currently, some occassional lightning to the south of Brisbane.
> 
> Tomorrow should be quite similar, possibly better with SE winds nearing
> gale force on the coast, and around 40kn just offshore.
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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002
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 02:20:29 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The site was moved on Jan 10 but the Aus/NZ region have not been updated 
since. They don't appear to be accessible anymore.
MH
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


----------
>From: Anthony Cornelius 
>To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
>Subject: aus-wx: FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
>Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 23:05
>

> Hi all,
>
> Has anyone been able to get updates from the FNMOC and PCMDI AVN/MRF/NGP
> in the past few days?  I know PCMDI has been down since Dec 27...but
> FNMOC has recently stopped updating on the ASWA page (showing missing
> images), and I was wondering if anyone knew anything about this?
>
> Thanks,
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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003
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Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 23:27:54 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Another Landspout in VIC
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I was talking to John (my chase partner) on the phone tonight, he is in
Mildura atm visiting family. Hes been out chasing dust devil footage/pics
this week. He said he has seen over 500 now in four days, anyway on monday
he chased some CU and saw a landspout. He said he saw a condensation funnel
out of some CU and found it hard to get a good view. He came over a rise
and saw it on the ground! Im unsure of what pics or video he got if any at
this stage, just thought id let the list know. Will post more details when
i find out. John gets back on Friday at lunch time, i pick him up from he
airport straight away to chase! Conditions look good and we should get
storms here in WA fri/sat/sun, so we will probably just stay out there for
a few days. looks like we might get some supercells also as shear looks
good at this stage. It should fire up around lunch time so John will get a
good view of em as he flies back from SA, when i pick him up he should have
a pretty good idea of where to go! hehehehe


			Ira Fehlberg

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004
From: Dion Williams [onamission at start.com.au]
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
X-Originating-IP: [61.8.0.112]
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 04:33:56 +1100
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Subject: aus-wx: Re: ABC Tornado Doco
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Phil Bagust wrote:

>    Hi Everyone,   Just a quick note to remind everyone to watch the
doco
>on the Oklahoma tornados which starts on ABC at 8:30pm EDST.
Matthew
>Piper

My god - I've just watched the damn thing.  Some of the scariest
footage
I've ever seen.  That 2x4 through the tyre was just beyond belief.

One observation though.  I hope none of our members ever try and get
that
close to the heart of the beast.  That storm spotter may have been
performing a valuable service, but getting within a hundred metres of
the
edge of an F5 crossed the boundary of sanity for me......

I guess some will always want to go further in the pursuit of
knowledge, even to the point of threatening their own lives. But
agreed, some incredible footage, certainly the most intense closeups
of violent tornadoes and the damage they cause I'd ever seen. Even
through a videocam mike, I could hear why people describe their
passage as sounding like a thousand freight trains derailing at once.
The death toll in Oklahoma City of 22, when taking into account the
incredible damage caused, is testament to the expertise and advanced
technology of the National Weather Service in providing adequate
warning times. Only individuals can save their own lives from that
point on.

Dion

__________________________________________________________________
Get your free Australian email account at http://www.start.com.au/

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005
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 08:24:22 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>Hi John and all,
>
>John Woodbridge wrote:
>
>
>You're quite correct about your thoughts of the dryline John, and as you
>mentioned, does commonly occur in central Queensland during summer.

[huge snip of v interesting info]

To Anthony and all who have contributed to this - thankyou.  My god this
list is a mine of information!

Now I'd like to start another thread!

It's been my observation (actually I'm sure most of you have noticed this)
that most supercells in Oz tend to be of the HP (or classic) type.  Rarely
do I see descriptions that match the classic US dryline LP storm.  Does
this mean that Oz doesn't have the specifically American conditions to
produce these beautiful storms, or does it perhaps mean that they might
form on Australian drylines generally hundreds of k's inland and just as
far from any spotters???

Any thoughts?

Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2


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006
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
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Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 09:44:08 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/fiorino/wxmap/avn.ausnz.htm

That is the link i have always used for pcmdi, and it still works, and is
still updated every day... i wonder what link the rest of you have been
using! oh well..

Matt Smith


>The site was moved on Jan 10 but the Aus/NZ region have not been updated 
>since. They don't appear to be accessible anymore.
>MH
>_____________________________________________________
>Mark Hardy.
>The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
>Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
>Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
>Mobile 0414 642 739
>email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
>_____________________________________________________
>
>
>----------
>>From: Anthony Cornelius 
>>To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
>>Subject: aus-wx: FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
>>Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 23:05
>>
>
>> Hi all,
>>
>> Has anyone been able to get updates from the FNMOC and PCMDI AVN/MRF/NGP
>> in the past few days?  I know PCMDI has been down since Dec 27...but
>> FNMOC has recently stopped updating on the ASWA page (showing missing
>> images), and I was wondering if anyone knew anything about this?
>>
>> Thanks,
>> --
>> Anthony Cornelius
>> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>> (ASWA)
>> (07) 3390 4812
>> 14 Kinsella St
>> Belmont, Brisbane
>> QLD, 4153
>> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
>> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
>> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>>  message.
>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>> 
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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007
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 22:43:31 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon  Ltd. - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Phil Bagust wrote:

> >Hi John and all,
> HP (or classic) type.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Does this mean HP or classic supercell or that HP is classic supercell?? (:

>From most of the images I've seen on aus-wx I'd say that most supercells are
of classic - type with the odd HP one chucked in.... I've yet to see one image
where the vertical extent is smaller than the base, but I'll probably be
proved wrong on this ((:

Les (UK)

------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)- Victoria
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

008
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 22:50:13 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon  Ltd. - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Phil Bagust wrote:

> >Hi John and all,
> >
> >John Woodbridge wrote:
> >
> >
> >You're quite correct about your thoughts of the dryline John, and as you
> >mentioned, does commonly occur in central Queensland during summer.
>
> [huge snip of v interesting info]
>
> To Anthony and all who have contributed to this - thankyou.  My god this
> list is a mine of information!
>
> Now I'd like to start another thread!
>
> It's been my observation (actually I'm sure most of you have noticed this)
> that most supercells in Oz tend to be of the HP (or classic) type.

There's one on the BoM website that looks a bit LP'ish...

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/handbook/spotter2.shtml


Does Les Lemon, ASWA Vic / USA, have anything to say on this????

Les(UK)

------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)- Victoria
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

009
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 09:59:36 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Matt
That link is not as reliable as the FNMOC site and often dissapears for a
day or so. We usually use FNMOC but since it vanished on Monday have been
trying PCMDI. Today was the 1st day this week that PCMDI was available.
MH
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


----------
>From: Matt Smith 
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
>Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 9:44
>

> http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/fiorino/wxmap/avn.ausnz.htm
>
> That is the link i have always used for pcmdi, and it still works, and is
> still updated every day... i wonder what link the rest of you have been
> using! oh well..
>
> Matt Smith
>
>
>>The site was moved on Jan 10 but the Aus/NZ region have not been updated
>>since. They don't appear to be accessible anymore.
>>MH
>>_____________________________________________________
>>Mark Hardy.
>>The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
>>Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
>>Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
>>Mobile 0414 642 739
>>email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
>>_____________________________________________________
>>
>>
>>----------
>>>From: Anthony Cornelius 
>>>To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
>>>Subject: aus-wx: FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
>>>Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 23:05
>>>
>>
>>> Hi all,
>>>
>>> Has anyone been able to get updates from the FNMOC and PCMDI AVN/MRF/NGP
>>> in the past few days?  I know PCMDI has been down since Dec 27...but
>>> FNMOC has recently stopped updating on the ASWA page (showing missing
>>> images), and I was wondering if anyone knew anything about this?
>>>
>>> Thanks,
>>> --
>>> Anthony Cornelius
>>> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>>> (ASWA)
>>> (07) 3390 4812
>>> 14 Kinsella St
>>> Belmont, Brisbane
>>> QLD, 4153
>>> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
>>> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
>>> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>>>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>>>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>>>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>>>  message.
>>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>>
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>> message.
>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
>>
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> 
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010
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 23:24:02 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon  Ltd. - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Les Crossan wrote:

> Phil Bagust wrote:
>
>  is smaller than the base, but I'll probably be
> proved wrong on this ((:
>

Whoops, that should of course read taller than the base..... braincell non
functional (:

>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------
> Les Crossan
> Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
> UK Storm Chaser
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)- Victoria
> http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
> Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
> Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
> http://www.torro.org.uk/
> Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
> ICQ: 17296776
> ------------------------------------------------------
>
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011
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 10:22:35 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Phil and all

Phil Bagust wrote:

> It's been my observation (actually I'm sure most of you have noticed this)
> that most supercells in Oz tend to be of the HP (or classic) type.  Rarely
> do I see descriptions that match the classic US dryline LP storm.  Does
> this mean that Oz doesn't have the specifically American conditions to
> produce these beautiful storms, or does it perhaps mean that they might
> form on Australian drylines generally hundreds of k's inland and just as
> far from any spotters???

You're quite correct Phil, most of the supercells in Australia are in
fact HP supercells, but more so along the east coast.  HP supercells are
believed to be the most common supercells throughout the world, possibly
because they can occur in a wider range of conditions, and are less
'fussy' on the shear that they require.  Some supercells though, for
example in WA, IMO are LP, and are often quite high based.  LP storms,
while rarely produce tornadoes, are often spectacular with their
features by far making up for the non-tornadicity (not a word!) of a
storm. 

Along the east coast though, LP's are nearly never observed.  Given that
LP storms are generally quite high based, one could say that LP storms
generally form in areas of low moisture.  Hence the lower LCL (lifted
condensation level).  This would explain why east coast storms generally
are not LP's given the high moisture content in the air that often
exists in the lower layers.  Where as areas in WA, and even in parts of
SA, moisture is often low, and high based storms frequently exist.  I
have a hunch that similar LP storms occur in central NSW and QLD, but as
you mentioned, no one is there to see it!

Classic storms are often very well organised, with their updraft core
and precipitation core often well separated.  Classic storms produce the
most tornadoes.  HP storms don't produce as many tornadoes as classics,
because the precipitation shafts frequently interfere with the updraft
mesocyclone.  However, there is some speculation, that maybe tornadoes
do occur in HP supercells with a similar rate to that of a classic
supercell, but simply the tornadoes that exist in a HP supercell are not
visible due to the intense precipitation shrouding the updraft core.  HP
supercells are generally least favoured by chasers, as chasers
freqeuntly get caught up in the rain.

In the US, I have noticed that the great plains tends to favour LP and
classic supercells, where as areas further east such as Louisina,
Alabama etc seem to have more HP supercells.  I've often wondered why
this occurs.  Maybe the fact that convection has occurred has an
effect?  For example, convection will sometimes occur over the inland of
Australia - so possible these contain LP's and classics, where as by the
time the system arrives to the eastern states, they form HP's.

One interesting observation, is that nearly every classic eventually
forms HP.  And I have heard theories that almost all HP's actually
derive from classics, be it a classic that lasts for 20mins, or 3hrs. 
Perhaps a HP supercell is simply an unorganised version of the classic?

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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012
X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2]
From: "David Croan" [wxbustchase at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 11:38:42 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all

Phil Bagust wrote:

>To Anthony and all who have contributed to this - thankyou.  My god this 
>list is a mine of information!

Ditto, some really good reading in there

>Now I'd like to start another thread!
>
>It's been my observation (actually I'm sure most of you have noticed this)
>that most supercells in Oz tend to be of the HP (or classic) type.  Rarely
>do I see descriptions that match the classic US dryline LP storm.  Does
>this mean that Oz doesn't have the specifically American conditions to
>produce these beautiful storms, or does it perhaps mean that they might
>form on Australian drylines generally hundreds of k's inland and just as
>far from any spotters???

I am waiting for a chaser to bring back a pic of a beautiful LP supercell 
updraft from somewhere in Australia. I have reasoned that since LP 
supercells favour 'relatively' drier environments in the US, then parts of 
Australia would be an ideal breeding ground for these storms, all other 
conditions being met.

The reason why there is no evidence for this is probably related to what was 
discussed in the dryline thread, and as you mention a lack of spotters over 
virtually all of interior Australia. Or, perhaps, just as in the US, LP 
supercells require a more restricted set of conditions and so are less 
common. Certainly HP supercells are the most prevalent supercell genre, in 
eastern Austalia at least (as evidence suggests they are in the US). All the 
major ($wise) severe thunderstorms affecting Sydney and Brisbane, for 
example, in recent times have been categorised as HP. Of course, storms in 
these cities typically form in the humid environments which HP supercells 
favour in anycase. I'd really love to know whats going on (as observed from 
the ground) east of Perth and across to the Goldfields or north of Adelaide 
when these regions fire as they quite frequently do.

It is worth pointing out that there is indirect evidence of the severe 
hailstorm which affected Sydney in 1947 as having LP characteristics - the 
storm dropped giant hail over a long track, (including a 'reported' 
hailstone measuring 7x4x4 inches) yet very little rain was recorded. Others 
might have more info on this event.


______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com

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013
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 11:57:37 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi David and all,

David Croan wrote:

> It is worth pointing out that there is indirect evidence of the severe
> hailstorm which affected Sydney in 1947 as having LP characteristics - the
> storm dropped giant hail over a long track, (including a 'reported'
> hailstone measuring 7x4x4 inches) yet very little rain was recorded. Others
> might have more info on this event.

The QLD BoM did do a small report on it, but very brief.  I think I've
posted this before, but to those newcomers to the list who are
interested:

1/1/47
Sydney - Preliminary Report: Roofs damaged in hailstorm.  Also furniture
etc.  Final details: Record hailstorm, over a million pounds damage,
neon signs, aircraft, cars, gardens and electric wires damaged.  Trees
were stripped, roofs caved in, tiles, window panes and roofs smashed. 
Over 300 people injured by hail, glass and tiles at Randwick race course
and Bondi and Sports ground.  Hailstones up to 8 inches across, bigger
than cricket balls, worst area Hurstville and Bankstown northeast of the
Harbour.  Greatest damage to the east of the city and eastern suburbs,
area 15 X 12 miles affected, lasted 10 minutes, about 2:30pm.


-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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014
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 02:26:12 GMT
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On Thu, 13 Jan 2000 09:59:36 +1100, "Mark Hardy" 
wrote:

>Matt
>That link is not as reliable as the FNMOC site and often dissapears for a
>day or so. We usually use FNMOC but since it vanished on Monday have been
>trying PCMDI. Today was the 1st day this week that PCMDI was available.
>MH
>_____________________________________________________

I emailed Mike Fiorino about the PCMDI site archive not working, and
his reply (below) helps clarify the temporary reasons for the site's
irregularity. Hopefully, once the server problem is overcome, it will
return to being the fastest update for MRF/AVN on the net.

Laurier

_______________________________________

G'day Laurier,

thanks for pointing out these bugs!  I've updated the links and the
archive. Our
ftp server has been down for ages so I've been doing the maps "by
hand"  it's
not too much work, just not as timely and as reliable.

I like your weather page!

Hope wxmap is better,
Happy Y2K and

Cheers,
Mike

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Laurier Williams [mailto:wbc at ozemail.com.au]
> Sent: Sunday, January 09, 2000 3:01 PM
> To: fiorino at llnl.gov
> Subject: WXMAP web archive
>
>
> Greetings Mike
>
> It's great to have your site working again. I think I speak for the
> majority of Australians with a keen interest in the weather when I say
> your charts are the best on the net. Thank you.
>
> In case you're not aware, the web archive at
> http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/fiorino/wxmap/wxmap.web.archive.htm is
> currently empty.
>
> Also, the linked satpics for Australia are dated in August 1999. I
> believe the new url for TWC satpix is
> http://www.weather.com/weather/sat/aussiesat_720x486.html
>
> Regards
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather News & Links
> http://ausweather.simplenet.com
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

015
From: "Anthony Spierings" [as029 at powerup.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Jet Contrails - WAS (Sub)Tropical Brisbane's Cold Air Cb's - in the middle of summer!!!
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 13:36:15 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
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Hello Anthony & All,

> Well, up here in the "sub-tropics" we had some nice cold air Cb's today,
> with 500mb temps crashing to a near, unheard of -15C  at  500mb, and -43C  at 
> 300mb.  Typically, summer 500mb temps should be -4 to -6C, and winter
> 500mb temps should be in the order of -14 to -16C.  So we essentially
> have a fairly average winter profile over us, with a summerish surface
> (if you can call the mid 20's summer!)
>

Does this explain seeing a few jet aircraft contrails over Brisbane the last
few days?

Regards,

Anthony Spierings

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016
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 16:10:07 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Some comments on midget cyclones
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

Further to Mark Landers comments on midget cyclone Iris, this came in.

I thought I would share it with you.

Regards,
Carl.


>Subject: CYCLONES: Some comments on midget cyclones
>Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 17:18:21 -0600
>X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
>X-Priority: 3
>MIME-Version: 1.0
>
>Here is a little dialogue I gleaned in response to Mark Lander's
>posting the other day about the rapid rise and decay of TC Iris.
>
>> >
>> >     Mark,
>> >
>> >     What kind of wind speeds do you think a system like this one would
>> >     actually have? Do you think the winds actually got as strong as the
>> >     objective data T-numbers would suggest? The standard Dvorak
>> >     classification would not allow data T-numbers like these to be used
>> >     for Final T-numbers or Current Intensities since the rapid changes in
>> >     the data T-numbers would exceed the Dvorak limits for change. Do you
>> >     think the wind speeds in a midget like this increase and decrease as
>> >     fast as the data T-numbers change? Is a modification of the Dvorak
>> >     technique necessary for midget cyclones?
>> >
>> >     Pete Donaldson
>> >     Central Pacific Hurricane Center
>> >     Honolulu HI
>
>> Pete
>> We have had extremely rapid developers in recent years, "Rona" (Feb 1999)
>> developed near the Queensland coast from a system without gales to a system
>> with hurricane force winds in 13 hours. It was in a relatively dense AWS
>> network and Low Ilse AWS verified the force 12 winds with a 10 min average
>> wind of 71 knots. Wind damage supported these winds. "Rona" was small but
>> not quite a midget. "Celeste" in January 1996 was a rapidly developing
>> midget near the Queensland coast and reached hurricane force in a similar
>> period with a compact circular eye on coastal radar. There was no direct
>> eyewall anemometer readings but gusts outside the eye wall were measured to
>> 65 knots.
>> Jeff Callaghan
>> Bureau of Meteorology.
>> Brisbane

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

017
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 02:22:28 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Dry Line (was More articles??)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id CAA21146
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I am just getting back on here.  Have been very busy.  Hope this is not too
redundant with anything else that has been written.

Dry lines are discontinuities that separate dry air having low dewpoints
and often very warm or hot temperatures from air that is much more moist
and often somewhat cooler..  Density differences are often none existent
across the bounders.   Sometimes there is southwest winds behind those
drylines here in the high planes and south or southeast ahead of the line
in the moist air.  However, other times no convergence exist and the winds
will blow virtually across the line.  Often, even then, the discontinuity
is not destroyed.  At times weak vortices will develop on the boundary. 
Most often, due to the lack of any density difference, there is not a
pressure trough accompanying the boundary.

Often building or towering cu will form along the demarcation.  It is not
yet well understood what the mechanism is for this cu.  Storms will
sometimes develop and become supercellular, given sufficient CAPE  and
shear on the most side.

In brief, that summarizes it.  (For years I worked with Joe Shaffer who
published the characteristics.  Moreover, just today I heard a talk given
in the VORTEX symposium held at the AMS Annual meeting here in Long Beach,
CA.)

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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018
X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32)
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 15:20:52 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More articles??)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Anthony is quite correct, on many chases over the years ive obseverd quite
severe but very high based storms. Ive never seen an LP but Mike Fewings
has a picture of one that his brother took up north. Its quite nice, high
based with a small narrow RFD.

			Ira Fehlberg



>You're quite correct Phil, most of the supercells in Australia are in
>fact HP supercells, but more so along the east coast.  HP supercells are
>believed to be the most common supercells throughout the world, possibly
>because they can occur in a wider range of conditions, and are less
>'fussy' on the shear that they require.  Some supercells though, for
>example in WA, IMO are LP, and are often quite high based.  LP storms,
>while rarely produce tornadoes, are often spectacular with their
>features by far making up for the non-tornadicity (not a word!) of a
>storm. 
>
>Along the east coast though, LP's are nearly never observed.  Given that
>LP storms are generally quite high based, one could say that LP storms
>generally form in areas of low moisture.  Hence the lower LCL (lifted
>condensation level).  This would explain why east coast storms generally
>are not LP's given the high moisture content in the air that often
>exists in the lower layers.  Where as areas in WA, and even in parts of
>SA, moisture is often low, and high based storms frequently exist.  I
>have a hunch that similar LP storms occur in central NSW and QLD, but as
>you mentioned, no one is there to see it!
>
>Classic storms are often very well organised, with their updraft core
>and precipitation core often well separated.  Classic storms produce the
>most tornadoes.  HP storms don't produce as many tornadoes as classics,
>because the precipitation shafts frequently interfere with the updraft
>mesocyclone.  However, there is some speculation, that maybe tornadoes
>do occur in HP supercells with a similar rate to that of a classic
>supercell, but simply the tornadoes that exist in a HP supercell are not
>visible due to the intense precipitation shrouding the updraft core.  HP
>supercells are generally least favoured by chasers, as chasers
>freqeuntly get caught up in the rain.
>
>In the US, I have noticed that the great plains tends to favour LP and
>classic supercells, where as areas further east such as Louisina,
>Alabama etc seem to have more HP supercells.  I've often wondered why
>this occurs.  Maybe the fact that convection has occurred has an
>effect?  For example, convection will sometimes occur over the inland of
>Australia - so possible these contain LP's and classics, where as by the
>time the system arrives to the eastern states, they form HP's.
>
>One interesting observation, is that nearly every classic eventually
>forms HP.  And I have heard theories that almost all HP's actually
>derive from classics, be it a classic that lasts for 20mins, or 3hrs. 
>Perhaps a HP supercell is simply an unorganised version of the classic?
>
>-- 
>Anthony Cornelius
>Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>(ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>14 Kinsella St
>Belmont, Brisbane
>QLD, 4153
>Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
>reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>

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019
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 17:29:37 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: FNMOC Is Back!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

While searching in frustration through the PCMDI site, I found the new
FNMOC server!!!  It has everything there originally was over a year ago,
not one thing missing!!!

http://152.80.49.210/PUBLIC/WXMAP/GLOBAL/

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

020
X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32)
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 15:36:19 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Supercells confirmed on SA/WA border
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I spoke with Barry from the BOM today and he confirmed that these were
supercells, He said the Eucla had them 3 days running and on the day Jimmy
mentioned this i was watching a group of them on radar. Barry said there
were 4 going at once and one was a left mover which took off. Id have to
say that with 3 days of supercells there must have been at least one nader
out there. Pity its like 2 days drive and i have a life...............:(

			Ira Fehlberg

At 17:35 12/01/00 +1100, you wrote:
>The storm on the SA/WA border area is quite large and has exploded since 
>the last image. Well for those not on until later I have saved this image 
>into the temp directory.
>
>http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/temp/000112/0001120530.jpg
>
>Those storms are massive.
>
>Please do not link to this particular link as it will be removed.
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
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>
>

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021
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 19:01:07 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FNMOC Is Back!!!
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

You're a legend Anthony, MH
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________


----------
>From: Anthony Cornelius 
>To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
>Subject: aus-wx: FNMOC Is Back!!!
>Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 18:29
>

> Hi all,
>
> While searching in frustration through the PCMDI site, I found the new
> FNMOC server!!!  It has everything there originally was over a year ago,
> not one thing missing!!!
>
> http://152.80.49.210/PUBLIC/WXMAP/GLOBAL/
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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022
X-Originating-IP: [203.101.79.121]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 00:03:14 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Halden Boyd ASWA puts out the following to aus-wx people:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
*******MINOR FLOOD WARNING for the RICHMOND RIVER SYSTEM********
(NORTH ARM WILSONS RIVER)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Consistent rainfall in the Richmond (Wilsons River) catchment since April 
1999 which has saturated the water table, and new precipitation over the 
past 24 hours....and what will be dumped on it tonight from a low I have 
predicted (for the last 3 days) forming off the northern NSW coast will lead 
to a minor flooding in the Lismore region, especially upstream from the 
city. A minor flood warning will be issued from the BOM over the next 24 
hours for the area.
Regards Halden Boyd
Australian Severe Weather Association



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

023
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Fw: NASA SATELLITE GREATLY IMPROVES ACCURACYOF TROPICAL RAINFALL FORECASTING
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 21:06:24 +1000
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And another!

>NASA SATELLITE GREATLY IMPROVES ACCURACY
>OF TROPICAL RAINFALL FORECASTING
>
>     New research shows that adding rainfall data from NASA's 
>Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and other 
>meteorological satellites to forecast models can more than triple 
>the accuracy of short-term rainfall forecasts. 
>
>     These findings by researchers at Florida State University, 
>Tallahassee, FL, were presented today at the annual American 
>Meteorological Society's (AMS) meeting in Long Beach, CA, and will 
>be featured in an upcoming edition of the Journal of Climate.  
>
>     In addition, researchers found that using the rainfall data 
>collected from defense meteorological satellites and TRMM can be 
>used to increase the forecast accuracy even further.  Their method 
>examines the behavior of a number of different forecast models and 
>selects those properties from each model that lead to the true 
>rainfall as observed by the TRMM satellite.  These model 
>properties are then used to predict the rainfall for three days 
>into the future, with remarkable success.
>
>     "Including rainfall into the multi-forecast model, or 
>'superensemble' model, is a unique approach," said Prof. T.N. 
>Krishnamurti, the paper's lead author and a TRMM scientist at 
>Florida State University.  "Overall we're most interested in 
>improving the rainfall three-day forecast accuracy.  Our research 
>has shown that the accuracy of global and regional forecasts using 
>the superensemble is higher with TRMM research data."
>
>     These forecast results are based on five experiments each 
>conducted Aug. 1 to Aug. 5, 1998.  The forecast accuracy was 
>higher over all tropical regions.  Scientists attribute this 
>success to a combination of improved analyses available from the 
>superensemble approach as well as the availability of accurate 
>rainfall estimates over the tropics from the TRMM satellite.
>
>     For years, scientists have attempted to improve the short-
>term forecasts in the tropics, but only minor improvements were 
>made.  Now, with the research data from the NASA spacecraft, 
>scientists will more accurately forecast rainfall in the region.  
>This is particularly important when it comes to hurricane tracks 
>and rainfall accumulations.  Experimental forecasts made by this 
>new technique during the 1999 hurricane season, for example, 
>correctly forecast the track of major hurricanes such as Dennis 
>and Floyd.
>
>     Scientists have a keen interest in how potential changes in 
>the global climate might affect the associated rainfall patterns 
>as they in turn affect human activities.  "Making such 
>improvements in even the short-term forecasts is important because 
>it demonstrates that we are learning more about the behavior of 
>rainfall within these models," said Chris Kummerow, the spacecraft 
>project scientist at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. 
>"Understanding rainfall patterns generated by our global climate 
>models is an extremely difficult problem. Having additional 
>information available from these weather forecast models has the 
>obvious benefit of better short term forecasts, and may help shed 
>additional light upon the climate models."
>
>     TRMM is NASA's first mission dedicated to observing and 
>understanding tropical rainfall and how it affects the global 
>climate.  The TRMM spacecraft fills an enormous void in the 
>ability to calculate worldwide precipitation because ground-based 
>radars that measure precipitation cover so little of the planet.  
>Ground-based radars cover only 2 percent of the area covered by 
>TRMM, said Kummerow.
>
>     TRMM has produced continuous data since December 1997.  
>Tropical rainfall, which falls between 35 degrees north latitude 
>and 35 degrees south latitude, comprises more than two-thirds of 
>the rainfall on Earth.  Previous estimates of tropical 
>precipitation were usually made on the basis of weather models and 
>occasional inclusion of very sparse surface rain gauges and/or 
>relatively few measurements from satellite sensors. The TRMM 
>satellite allows these measurements to be made in a focused 
>manner.
>
>     TRMM, a NASA-Japanese mission, is part of NASA's Earth 
>Science Enterprise, a long-term research program designed to study 
>the Earth's land, oceans, air, ice and life as a total system.   
>Information and images from the TRMM mission are available on the 
>Internet at URL:
>
>                  http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/
>
>     Information on the AMS is available at URL: 
>
>                  http://www.ametsoc.org/
>
>                              -end-
>
>
>                            * * *
>
>NASA press releases and other information are available automatically
>by sending an Internet electronic mail message to domo at hq.nasa.gov.
>In the body of the message (not the subject line) users should type
>the words "subscribe press-release" (no quotes).  The system will
>reply with a confirmation via E-mail of each subscription.  A second
>automatic message will include additional information on the service.
>NASA releases also are available via CompuServe using the command
>GO NASA.  To unsubscribe from this mailing list, address an E-mail
>message to domo at hq.nasa.gov, leave the subject blank, and type only
>"unsubscribe press-release" (no quotes) in the body of the message.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

024
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fw: NASA ADMINISTRATOR HIGHLIGHTS AGENCY'S ROLE IN IMPROVING CLIMATE AND WEATHER PREDICTION
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 21:03:40 +1000
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Hi there,

>well they obviously dont know anything about chaos
>theory then do they....never judge the weather

I certainly understand what you're saying, that chaos pretty much dictates that
we'll never be able to predict the weather, but I figure we should always keep
an open mind. Maybe we'll discover that  chaos theory is wrong. Who knows
what will happen in the future?

Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
3D Photography: http://www.bit.net.au/~erinm/3d
ICQ: 11790565

>--- Marty  wrote:
>> Hi all!
>>
>> Thought you may find the following of interest,
>> particularly the future
>> possibility of accurate 10- to 14-day forecasts.
>>
>> Cheers!
>> Marty.
>> Brisbane, Australia
>> martyp at dynamite.com.au
>> Images of Canberra:
>> http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
>> Lightning Photos:
>> http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
>> 3D Photography: http://www.bit.net.au/~erinm/3d
>> ICQ: 11790565
>>
>> >NASA ADMINISTRATOR HIGHLIGHTS AGENCY'S ROLE
>> >IN IMPROVING CLIMATE AND WEATHER PREDICTION
>> >
>> >     In a keynote address to weather forecasters at
>> their annual
>> >convention, NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin
>> yesterday outlined
>> >the space agency's role in studying Earth's climate
>> -- a
>> >commitment to scientific research and technology
>> development that
>> >will help forecasters make more accurate weather
>> predictions in
>> >the new millennium.
>> >
>> >     Speaking to the American Meteorological
>> Society convention in
>> >Long Beach, CA, Goldin discussed how NASA
>> technology and climate
>> >studies can help predict such dramatic events as El
>> Nino and La
>> >Nina -- providing advance notice that saved America
>> billions of
>> >dollars last year alone. For the future, NASA has
>> set goals for
>> >its Earth Sciences research and technology
>> development projects
>> >that  may result in new satellite technologies and
>> models to help
>> >National Weather Service replace the common three-
>> to five-day
>> >forecasts of today with accurate 10- to 14-day
>> forecasts, Goldin
>> >added.
>> >
>> >     With the use of satellite data and better
>> computer modeling
>> >techniques, meteorologists in the next ten years
>> may be able to
>> >predict El Nino weather conditions up to 15 months
>> in advance and
>> >detect hurricanes far enough ahead to help protect
>> lives and
>> >property, Goldin told the meteorologists.
>> >
>> >     "What most people don't know is that our
>> efforts to open the
>> >space frontier are largely based on our quest to
>> understand our
>> >own planet," Goldin said.  "Our development of new
>> technologies
>> >and Earth-observing spacecraft complement the vital
>> work of our
>> >sister agencies in weather prediction and global
>> climate
>> >modeling."
>> >
>> >     Ongoing Earth Science missions that contribute
>> to our
>> >understanding of the global climate include:
>> >
>> >     * Landsat 7, an Earth-mapping satellite that
>> provides imagery
>> >of the planet for use in understanding natural
>> events all over the
>> >world.  Building on a 27-year heritage of data,
>> Landsat 7 can help
>> >researchers understand the effects of hurricanes
>> and their
>> >flooding of coastal regions, as well as monitor
>> natural fires and
>> >droughts all over our planet.
>> >
>> >     * Quikscat, a satellite launched last spring
>> that tracks wind
>> >currents over the ocean's surface. This information
>> can help
>> >scientists understand the interactions between
>> Earth's oceans and
>> >the atmosphere and help them predict the evolution
>> and movement of
>> >severe storms.
>> >
>> >     * TOPEX/POSEIDON, a NASA-French mission that
>> uses radar to
>> >study ocean-surface topography and heat content,
>> two more clues
>> >into how El Ni�o and other ocean events affect the
>> weather that
>> >crosses our nation each day.
>> >
>> >     * The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, a
>> NASA-Japanese
>> >mission that continues to provide profound new
>> insights into
>> >events such as hurricanes, modeling them in three
>> dimensions while
>> >showing how energy is used within the storm. This
>> knowledge will
>> >help experts understand how these most violent of
>> Earthbound
>> >storms work.  Experimental forecasts done last fall
>> using this
>> >satellite's data demonstrated much better tracking
>> of some of the
>> >year's devastating east coast hurricanes, including
>> Dennis and
>> >Floyd.
>> >
>> >     * The ACRIMSAT mission, launched last month,
>> will measure how
>> >changes in the Sun's energy affect Earth's climate.
>> >
>> >     * Terra, also launched just last month, will
>> enable new
>> >research into the ways that Earth's lands, oceans,
>> air, ice and
>> >life function as a planet-wide system.  In the
>> coming months and
>> >years, this major "Earth Observatory" will provide
>> new insights
>> >into how our home planet behaves.
>> >
>> >     NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington,
>> DC, is a long-
>> >term research program designed to study the Earth's
>> land, oceans,
>> >air, ice and life as a total system.  More
>> information about
>> >NASA's Earth Science Enterprise can be found on the
>> Internet at:
>> >
>> >                  http://www.earth.nasa.gov
>> >
>> >                             -end-
>> >
>
>
>
>well they obviously dont know anything about chaos
>theory then do they....never judge the weather
>
>
>                stormtwist
>
>
>
>> >                            * * *
>> >
>> >NASA press releases and other information are
>> available automatically
>> >by sending an Internet electronic mail message to
>> domo at hq.nasa.gov.
>> >In the body of the message (not the subject line)
>> users should type
>> >the words "subscribe press-release" (no quotes).
>> The system will
>> >reply with a confirmation via E-mail of each
>> subscription.  A second
>> >automatic message will include additional
>> information on the service.
>> >NASA releases also are available via CompuServe
>> using the command
>> >GO NASA.  To unsubscribe from this mailing list,
>> address an E-mail
>> >message to domo at hq.nasa.gov, leave the subject
>> blank, and type only
>> >"unsubscribe press-release" (no quotes) in the body
>> of the message.
>>
>>
>>
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>>  message.
>>
>>
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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Document: 000113.htm
Updated: 19 January 2000

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