Date: Thu, 11 May 2000 23:41:42 +1000 From: Andrew Miskelly X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Immuttable Laws of Forecasts and Storm Chasing. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com It's amazing how true all of this is, but it's brought to a new level when you actually live in the same city as Michael - I can see exactly where he got the inspiration.... And... * The escarpment will only provide the unique conditions required for exceptional weather when you are away, looking for the same thing on the plains. Andrew. -- Andrew Miskelly Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW amiskelly at ozemail.com.au Anthony Cornelius wrote: > > ROFL!!! Good one Michael! You should put this up on your website...it's > terrific! > > Michael Thompson wrote: > > > * Just about everyone you meet has seen larger hail then you have. > > > > * Your work colleagues never ask you for forecasts over the next few hours, > > it is > > always months in the future. > > > > * With fast moving troughs, storms will form 200-300km south of you one day > > and > > 200-300 north of you the next. > > > > * Troughs tend to pass overhead at 4-5am in the morning. > > > > * Stalled fronts / toughs always occur elsewhere. > > > > * The same seabreeze that kills off convection in your place, will enhance > > storms > > elsewhere. > > > > * You will always be remembered for the incorrect forecasts and not the > > correct > > ones. > > > > * Somebody will always ask you " will it rain on the weekend" when isolated > > thunderstorms are possible. It will be fine at your house, but the only weak > > storm in the area > > will give a brief shower on your workmates place. On Monday they will > > announce that your > > forecast was wrong. > > > > * You look at the models and make a brave prediction in the newsgroup about > > severe > > weather and the system always slips away to the SE. > > > > * You look at the models and are sure that severe weather is a possibility > > in a > > few days, but hold off on a message to the newsgroup. Somebody else will > > jump in and predict the > > event ( which will happen ) and be acclaimed a model champion. > > > > * In weather discussions at work somebody will say " Tim Baily is always > > right ". > > > > * A forecast of Thur: Thunderstorms, Friday: Thunderstorms, Saturday: > > Thunderstorms, Sunday: Thunderstorms really means Thursday: Thunderstorms, > > Friday: Severe Storms > > possible, Saturday: Cool SE winds and high pressure gloom. Sunday: Sunny > > periods developing with light E winds. > > > > * Storm features such as Tornadoes and Large Hail are usually observed by > > those > > least interested in them. > > > > * East coast lows always develop just 100km too far south, no matter where > > you are > > on the NSW coast. > > > > * You chase for over 600km and the storms are always just a little bit > > further north. If > > you stay overnight the trough will move NE. If you return home it will stall > > exactly where you were > > yesterday. > > > > * The chances of severe storms increases if your video camera batteries are > > left > > uncharged. > > > > * Every second person you met who has holidayed in far north Queensland has > > had there vocation > > spoilt by a Tropical Cyclone. > > > > * You have to go on business trips several times a year from Sydney to > > Canberra, > > it is always dry and sunny. The only time somebody else gets to go in your > > place they get > > snow and sleet for much of the way. > > > > * Even though you have been on several plane trips you have never landed or > > taken > > off in rain let alone storms. But all your friends seem to have flown with > > lightning flashing > > all around them. > > > > * When at last you have a decent trough that has not become a rain event, > > and the jet > > is in perfect position, and the middle and upper layers are cool, dry and > > cloudless. It will > > mean that prefrontal NW winds with zero to minus dew points will develop. > > > > * You have resigned yourself to the fact that your area is experiencing a > > severe > > drought, in fact the number of rainless days record may tumble soon. You > > will then get a weak > > shower with 0.2mm of rain. > > > > * Lift Index figures increase by 2 every 24 hours. For example a model which > > Predicts -4 LI's for Saturday on Thursday, will predict -2 by Friday, and 0 > > on Saturday the chase > > day. > > > > * Lift Index areas will always drift NW of you, no matter where you are. > > > > * Potential CG's know when you are looking at them, fool them by panning the > > camera in the opposite direction and they will discharge. > > > > * You are hot on the heels of a supercell. After driving many kilometres > > through open country, > > you will eventually the catch the storm in an area of forest. > > > > * The storm that seemingly takes ages to reach you is gone within minutes. > > > > * If you go to Darwin to witness the spectacular pre monsoonal Thunderstorms > > an > > early season monsoonal rain mass will set in. > > > > * You are waiting for a great night time lightning display, it will occur on > > the only night of the year that you have family commitments. > > > > Michael Thompson > > http://thunder.simplenet.com > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association > (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > 14 Kinsella St > Belmont, Brisbane > QLD, 4153 > Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm > reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: STA out for WA's SW Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 01:37:43 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yes, My Sister & family live in Kelmscott. They reported 10 to 15mm sized hail which completely covered their lawns. Depth 3 to 4cm. John (from Brisbane, Och but that's a loooong way from Kelmscott). ps. Their email to me also noted that this was "Unusual" for Perth! No dount Ira would have something to say about that!! >snip Subject: aus-wx: STA out for WA's SW ... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------- Im surprised they didnt issue a STA earlier as the cold pool was moving NE since yesterday towards the SW and looking better with each sat update.... http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsc.jpg <----current sat pic shows some very nice cells with the large cell now crossing the coast at Mandurah on radar 70kms south of Perth. Broad showing some nice green and some pink intensity . Regards Jason Karratha W.A http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Immuttable Laws of Forecasts and Storm Chasing. Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 01:44:01 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evidently, Murphy was also a storm chaser! John. >snip Michael Thompson wrote: > * Just about everyone you meet has seen larger hail then you have. > > * Your work colleagues never ask you for forecasts over the next few hours, > it is > always months in the future. > > * With fast moving troughs, storms will form 200-300km south of you one day > and > 200-300 north of you the next. > > * Troughs tend to pass overhead at 4-5am in the morning. > > * Stalled fronts / toughs always occur elsewhere. >... +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 04:20:15 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: SUPER TYPHOON DAMREY satpic animations Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. The Northern Hemishere Typhoon Season has kicked off with a 330 km/hr Cat 5 monster! I have made some false colour IR satpic animations of SUPER TYPHOON DAMREY, which are available at: http://www9.50megs.com/cyclones/2000/Damrey.html. If you prefer direct links, this list of URL's links to each of them. http://www9.50megs.com/cyclones/2000/Images/01Wir050831-060424c.gif http://www9.50megs.com/cyclones/2000/Images/01Wir061531-071131c.gif http://www9.50megs.com/cyclones/2000/Images/01Wir080631-082131c.gif http://www9.50megs.com/cyclones/2000/Images/01Wir082225-090532c.gif http://www9.50megs.com/cyclones/2000/Images/01Wir092131-101532c.gif All images are 256 colours grading from white-blue for 'hot' areas to red-black for 'cold' areas, and are mostly at hourly intervals. The first 3 animations are cropped from mercator projection images from the NPMOC archive, and the last 2 are cropped from full disk images from the NASA archive. In these animations you can see DAMREY in a favourable environment with high SST's (white ocean) with low wind shear, developing to super typhoon Cat 5 strength with a neat clear eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops (deep red), then move into an unfavourable environment with colder SST's (bluer ocean) with high wind shear that cause it to quickly degenerate. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. Email: carls at ace-net.com.au Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Keith & Jason" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: STA out for WA's SW Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 04:03:47 +0800 Organization: Karratha AWS X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all I uploaded a 11second 500k movie showing the hail that fell in Kelmscott courtesy of Perth's 7 news from last night you can find it here....... http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/hailstorm.mpv All you need to view it is windows media player Regards Jason Karratha W.A http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Woodbridge" To: Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2000 11:37 PM Subject: RE: aus-wx: STA out for WA's SW > Yes, > > My Sister & family live in Kelmscott. They reported 10 to 15mm sized hail > which > completely covered their lawns. Depth 3 to 4cm. > > John > (from Brisbane, Och but that's a loooong way from Kelmscott). > > ps. Their email to me also noted that this was "Unusual" for Perth! No > dount Ira > would have something to say about that!! > > >snip > > Subject: aus-wx: STA out for WA's SW > ... > -------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- > ------------- > > Im surprised they didnt issue a STA earlier as the cold pool was moving NE > since yesterday towards the SW and looking better with each sat update.... > http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsc.jpg <----current sat pic shows > some very nice cells with the large cell now crossing the coast at Mandurah > on radar 70kms south of Perth. Broad showing some nice green and some pink > intensity . > > Regards > Jason > Karratha W.A > http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.18] From: "Kevin Phyland" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Immutable Laws of Forecasts and Storm Chasing. Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 09:02:21 EST Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hehehehehehe.....Michael!!! I see SDS has finally sent you away with the pixies. Trouble is...they all sound like something I've experienced! Cheers, Kevin. ________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Ben Quinn" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar Loop (was: STA out for WA's SW) Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 08:59:08 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi John, everyone.. For those that didn't get to see the radar for this cell i have uploaded it to some webspace.. http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/jandakot.gif (it's the cell that moves through Jandakot at ~00UTC) You can see how very very isolated the intense echo's are - but going by the channel 7 footage Jason Bush posted, it realy did unload heaps of hail! ----- Original Message ----- From: John Woodbridge To: Sent: Friday, May 12, 2000 1:37 AM Subject: RE: aus-wx: STA out for WA's SW > Yes, > > My Sister & family live in Kelmscott. They reported 10 to 15mm sized hail > which > completely covered their lawns. Depth 3 to 4cm. > > John > (from Brisbane, Och but that's a loooong way from Kelmscott). > > ps. Their email to me also noted that this was "Unusual" for Perth! No > dount Ira > would have something to say about that!! > > >snip > > Subject: aus-wx: STA out for WA's SW > ... > -------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- > ------------- > > Im surprised they didnt issue a STA earlier as the cold pool was moving NE > since yesterday towards the SW and looking better with each sat update.... > http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsc.jpg <----current sat pic shows > some very nice cells with the large cell now crossing the coast at Mandurah > on radar 70kms south of Perth. Broad showing some nice green and some pink > intensity . > > Regards > Jason > Karratha W.A > http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "Aussie Weather Digest (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: New web site.. Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 09:27:13 +1000 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2650.21) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Someone brought this web site (http://www.weather-wise.com/) to my attention a couple of days ago. There is an interesting little spiel on TCs Tessi and Vaughan, among other things. I don't know how this site will evolve, but it could be worth watching? Cheers, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Radar Loop (was: STA out for WA's SW) Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 10:05:12 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Kelmscott is right at the foot of the Darling Range, so maybe a bit of forced convection as the cell encountered the 350m escarpement triggered the dump?? John. >snip Hi John, everyone.. For those that didn't get to see the radar for this cell i have uploaded it to some webspace.. http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/jandakot.gif (it's the cell that moves through Jandakot at ~00UTC) You can see how very very isolated the intense echo's are - but going by the channel 7 footage Jason Bush posted, it realy did unload heaps of hail! +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32) Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 09:50:05 +0800 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Ira Fehlberg Subject: RE: aus-wx: Radar Loop (was: STA out for WA's SW) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I was lucky enough to see this cell as i was working in Westfield yesterday, you could see the hail coming in with it from a fair way away, good coverage but only small stones, max size was maybe one inch. Also John it was funny to read that your sister said this was unusual for Perth. Most ppl dont take much notice of what happens outside their suburb i spose. My sister lives north of Geraldton where they get good storms regulary and she says the same sort of stuff. Ira Fehlberg At 10:05 12/05/00 +1000, you wrote: >Kelmscott is right at the foot of the Darling Range, so maybe a bit >of forced convection as the cell encountered the 350m escarpement >triggered the dump?? > >John. >>snip > >Hi John, everyone.. > >For those that didn't get to see the radar for this cell i have uploaded it >to some webspace.. > >http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/jandakot.gif > >(it's the cell that moves through Jandakot at ~00UTC) > >You can see how very very isolated the intense echo's are - but going by the >channel 7 footage Jason Bush posted, it realy did unload heaps of hail! > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 09:02:39 -0700 From: Lindsay X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Sunday Cold Front for SE Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anybody got any more thoughts/observations on the cold front moving east? Should I have the camera ready for a little drive to the Oberon area? Lindsay Pearce +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Ben Quinn" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar Loop (was: STA out for WA's SW) Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 14:02:16 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com one inch is small??? I think you meant to type 1cm? 1 inch is 2 1/2 cm, and is classed as severe (i had 2 1/2 cm hail here in December 1998 which caused considerable damage to many cars).. oh - for those who are having trouble viewing the movie Jason Bush posted (seems to be quite a few) i have uploaded a couple of screen captures of the footage (yesssss i have nothing else better to do).. http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/hail.jpg http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/hail2.jpg ----- Original Message ----- From: Ira Fehlberg To: Sent: Friday, May 12, 2000 11:50 AM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Radar Loop (was: STA out for WA's SW) > I was lucky enough to see this cell as i was working in Westfield > yesterday, you could see the hail coming in with it from a fair way away, > good coverage but only small stones, max size was maybe one inch. > Also John it was funny to read that your sister said this was unusual for > Perth. Most ppl dont take much notice of what happens outside their suburb > i spose. My sister lives north of Geraldton where they get good storms > regulary and she says the same sort of stuff. > > Ira Fehlberg > > > > At 10:05 12/05/00 +1000, you wrote: > >Kelmscott is right at the foot of the Darling Range, so maybe a bit > >of forced convection as the cell encountered the 350m escarpement > >triggered the dump?? > > > >John. > >>snip > > > >Hi John, everyone.. > > > >For those that didn't get to see the radar for this cell i have uploaded it > >to some webspace.. > > > >http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/jandakot.gif > > > >(it's the cell that moves through Jandakot at ~00UTC) > > > >You can see how very very isolated the intense echo's are - but going by the > >channel 7 footage Jason Bush posted, it realy did unload heaps of hail! > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au Date: Thu, 11 May 2000 22:53:41 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: Re: aus-wx: Immuttable Laws of Forecasts and Storm Chasing. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >* Just about everyone you meet has seen larger hail then you have. > >* Your work colleagues never ask you for forecasts over the next few hours, >it is >always months in the future. > >* With fast moving troughs, storms will form 200-300km south of you one day >and >200-300 north of you the next. > >* Troughs tend to pass overhead at 4-5am in the morning. > >* Stalled fronts / toughs always occur elsewhere. > >* The same seabreeze that kills off convection in your place, will enhance >storms > elsewhere. > >* You will always be remembered for the incorrect forecasts and not the >correct >ones. > >* Somebody will always ask you " will it rain on the weekend" when isolated >thunderstorms are possible. It will be fine at your house, but the only weak >storm in the area >will give a brief shower on your workmates place. On Monday they will >announce that your >forecast was wrong. > >* You look at the models and make a brave prediction in the newsgroup about >severe >weather and the system always slips away to the SE. > >* You look at the models and are sure that severe weather is a possibility >in a >few days, but hold off on a message to the newsgroup. Somebody else will >jump in and predict the >event ( which will happen ) and be acclaimed a model champion. > > >* In weather discussions at work somebody will say " Tim Baily is always >right ". > >* A forecast of Thur: Thunderstorms, Friday: Thunderstorms, Saturday: >Thunderstorms, Sunday: Thunderstorms really means Thursday: Thunderstorms, >Friday: Severe Storms >possible, Saturday: Cool SE winds and high pressure gloom. Sunday: Sunny >periods developing with light E winds. > >* Storm features such as Tornadoes and Large Hail are usually observed by >those >least interested in them. > >* East coast lows always develop just 100km too far south, no matter where >you are > on the NSW coast. > >* You chase for over 600km and the storms are always just a little bit >further north. If >you stay overnight the trough will move NE. If you return home it will stall >exactly where you were > yesterday. > >* The chances of severe storms increases if your video camera batteries are >left >uncharged. > >* Every second person you met who has holidayed in far north Queensland has >had there vocation > spoilt by a Tropical Cyclone. > >* You have to go on business trips several times a year from Sydney to >Canberra, >it is always dry and sunny. The only time somebody else gets to go in your >place they get >snow and sleet for much of the way. > >* Even though you have been on several plane trips you have never landed or >taken >off in rain let alone storms. But all your friends seem to have flown with >lightning flashing >all around them. > > >* When at last you have a decent trough that has not become a rain event, >and the jet >is in perfect position, and the middle and upper layers are cool, dry and >cloudless. It will >mean that prefrontal NW winds with zero to minus dew points will develop. > >* You have resigned yourself to the fact that your area is experiencing a >severe >drought, in fact the number of rainless days record may tumble soon. You >will then get a weak >shower with 0.2mm of rain. > >* Lift Index figures increase by 2 every 24 hours. For example a model which >Predicts -4 LI's for Saturday on Thursday, will predict -2 by Friday, and 0 >on Saturday the chase >day. > >* Lift Index areas will always drift NW of you, no matter where you are. > >* Potential CG's know when you are looking at them, fool them by panning the >camera in the opposite direction and they will discharge. > >* You are hot on the heels of a supercell. After driving many kilometres >through open country, > you will eventually the catch the storm in an area of forest. > >* The storm that seemingly takes ages to reach you is gone within minutes. > >* If you go to Darwin to witness the spectacular pre monsoonal Thunderstorms >an >early season monsoonal rain mass will set in. > >* You are waiting for a great night time lightning display, it will occur on >the only night of the year that you have family commitments. > > >Michael Thompson >http://thunder.simplenet.com I think there's something in that for all of us, don't you? Phil 'Paisley' Bagust paisley at cobweb.com.au http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 13:34:18 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sunday Cold Front for SE Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Anybody got any more thoughts/observations on the cold front moving >east? Certainly a good NW rainband in front of the front [if you know what i mean!] - been belting down in Adelaide for an hour now. The wind's swung around more north westerly but the fronts a way off. I'll post reports after the passage. I expect a good day of 'coldies' tomorrow! Phil 'Paisley' Bagust paisley at cobweb.com.au http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410) Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 16:06:35 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sunday Cold Front for SE From: "Mark Hardy" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I don't think so this time Lindsay. The cold air looks like tracking too far south. Another burst on Monday show a little potential for smow as well but probably not as far north as Oberon. Mark _____________________________________________________ Mark Hardy. The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060 Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536. Mobile 0414 642 739 email: mhardy at theweather.com.au _____________________________________________________ ---------- >From: Lindsay >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: aus-wx: Sunday Cold Front for SE >Date: Sat, 13 May 2000 2:02 > > Anybody got any more thoughts/observations on the cold front moving > east? > > > Should I have the camera ready for a little drive to the Oberon area? > > > Lindsay Pearce > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: aus-wx: Joseph Banks see watrespouts off SE Australian coast - April 1770 Date: Fri, 12 May 2000 18:01:35 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Another extract from a historic journal. This one about 2 days after sighting the Aust' coast, must be around Eden at a guess. > > We were now sailing along shore 5 or 6 Leagues from it, with a brisk breeze of > wind and cloudy unsettled weather, when we were calld upon deck to see three > water spouts, which at the same time made their appearance in different places > but all between us and the land. Two which were very distant soon disapeard but > the third which was about a League from us lasted full a quarter of an hour. It > was a column which appeard to be of about the thickness of a mast or a midling > tree, and reachd down from a smoak colourd cloud about two thirds of the way to > the surface of the sea; under it the sea appeard to be much troubled for a > considerable space and from the whole of that space arose a dark colourd thick > mist which reachd to the bottom of the pipe. When it was at its greatest > distance from the water the pipe itself was perfectly transparent and much > resembled a tube of glass or a Column of water, if such a thing could be supposd > to be suspended in the air; it very frequently contracted and dilated, lenghned > and sho > rtned itself and that by very quick motions; it very seldom remaind in a > perpendicular direction but Generaly inclind either one way or the other in a > curve as a light body acted upon by wind is observd to do. During the whole time > that it lasted smaler ones seemd to attempt to form in its neighbourhood; at > last one did about as thick as a rope close by it and became longer than the old > one which at that time was in its shortest state; upon this they Joind together > in an instant and gradualy contracting into the Cloud disapeard. > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------