From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Cold outbreak Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 00:09:53 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, Certainly is looking interesting down South. Less interesting perhaps is that it has been darn cold for May here at Mt. Crosby, 26km West of Brisbane. Today was miserable, with the max reaching only 17.0C with constant light drizzle (23mm to midnight). Min's over the last week have been down to single figures. Much more reminiscent of July/August than May! John. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "James Chambers" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE QLD Rain Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 00:40:03 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Ben, all Yeah some pretty good soaking rain here in Logan City (*just* south of Brisbane). 16.5mm today due to contant fine drizzle, with periods of light/steady rain. Despite the size of the droplets, visibility was at times down to around 1km. Radar after midnight suggests the rain has gone offshore, leaving even finer misty drizzle hanging about here, with impending fog. Good luck to all concerned with the cold outbreak - stay safe as well! The cold weather should make it up this way on the weekend with sleet possible over the Granite Belt (Stanthorpe area). Whatever happens, we're in for some ripper frosts next week when the wind dies down. Well that's all from me...btw its great to read the model summaries by Blair, Laurier and the rest! It's very much appreciated. Regards James (struggling to come to terms with a series loss in the State of Origin) Chambers. *sigh* >Hi Everyone, > >Some decent rain in SE QLD over the last few days - it rained here (although >mostly drizzle-light/occasionally moderate) all day today, and for most of >the day yesterday.. 40mm in the gauge now - approx. 20mm from overnight last >night, and 20mm during the day today.. > >Some better falls N and NW of me to 9am this morning, with Beerburrum >scoring 47mm, Eumundi 42mm, Maroochydore 40mm and a hanfull of other statons >recording between 15 and 40mm... a couple of 20-25mm's in the 6 hours from >9am this morning to 3pm today as well.. as usual with this kind of system, >the rain didn't make it very far inland.. > >AVN is also tipping moderate/heavy rain for us Friday afternoon - with a >band of rain forming over the southern interior of QLD and then quickly >moving offshore overnight Friday.. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 01:38:30 -0700 From: Lindsay X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow Chase & new email addy Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yes, I can only echo Laurier's remarks, it can be awfully dangerous up here during a decent dump and the fact that snow could fall across the weekend, well, there will be LOTS of cars around and you can almost guarantee, accidents/traffic jams. Personally, I'm reluctant to get out and about until Monday, when I might check out Oberon, as I've seen some nasty accidents up here during snow, (four wheel drivers not excluded). When I do my chases to Oberon its different as normally you don't get too many folk driving out that far and indeed most aren't familiar with all of the road networks out there. And usually I chase out that way when there is little or no snow here. Unfortunately I have to work this weekend but will definately have the camera ready and will let everyone know how the snow is up our way. Then again, I may not be able to work if its snowing! Please don't think I'm discouraging a chase, no way, but decent snow in the Blue Mountains can cause real havoc. Be careful and make sure your tyres are new or at least in real good nick. Lindsay Pearce Laurier Williams wrote: > Just one point to keep in mind -- and I guess this applies to anyone > going snow chasing anywhere this weekend. > > Once snow or icy weather starts in the Blue Mountains, the road > network closes down *very* quickly. Even a few cm of white stuff, > combined with ice from frozen recent rain, can close the Great Western > Highway within an hour or so of the snow starting. I live in > Blackheath, the highest town in the mountains, and it's fairly routine > to have the highway closed once or twice each winter, mainly because > the steeper grades become dangerous and the police today seem less > inclined to let people chance their luck than they used to (could they > be sued if they didn't close the highway and a car skidded on black > ice?) As little as 5cm of snow will close the highway (typically at > the hill on the Sydney side of Wentworth Falls, the grade just east of > Medlow Bath, and Victoria Pass), and 15cm or so will shut down the > railways as points clog up and power circuits malfunction. That > effectively isolates the Mountains. If there's a really good dump, > don't plan on getting back to Sydney for work on Monday! > > I'll be watching the weather like a hawk on Friday -- I'm working in > Sydney and have to get home that night, and if the snow starts during > the evening I run the risk of being snowed out -- and missing being > snowed in! 9999> > Laurier > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.18] From: "Kevin Phyland" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Previous cold outbreaks... Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 11:57:25 EST Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Ben, I don't think it is the most recent but I can still recall the day it snowed in Bendigo on May 31, 1977. It was the coldest May day in over 80 years at the time and snow fell at sea level in the Western District at the very least... The snow melted as it hit the ground in Bendigo but stayed on the ground for long periods just south of Bendigo (Mt. Alexander). Kevin from Wycheproof. ________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #587 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 11:56:40 +1000 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > The likelihood of a Tasman low > > and the consequent more southerly flow also makes me more optimistic > > for snow in Canberra than I was 24 hours ago. (Canberra often misses > > out in SW outbreaks because of the rainshadow from the Brindabellas; > > a southerly, or even south-easterly if it's cold enough, is more > > favourable). > > Snow in Canberra on Saturday night?. I'm sure should Crusaders will handle > such conditions better than the Brumbies. (but we're gonna thrash 'em > anyway) You wish.... > > As for Melbourne, I'd now assess the probabilities as being: > > > > Snow falling in Dandenongs 80-90% > > Snow settling in Dandenongs 70% > > Snow falling in suburbs 40% > > Snow falling in central Melbourne 25% > > Snow settling in central Melbourne 10-15% > > Major snowfall in Melbourne (10cm+) 5% > > Don't forget we're still in May. Has such an icy blast (ie with widespread > snow to low levels) hit so early in the season before?. In NZ, the last such > similar event happened back on 29/30 May 1989, and saw record low maximum > temperatures in many places, not to mention widespread snow. > The benchmark for May cold outbreaks in Australia, in the last 50 years or so, would be the one of 30/31 May 1977, which brought snow to very low levels in Victoria, as well as extensive falls on the NSW tablelands. At this stage, I think the most likely scenario is that this outbreak will be slightly weaker than 1977, but substantially stronger than the strongest May ones of recent years, 15 May 1999 and 31 May 1989. The 1977 outbreak would probably rank in the top 10 cold outbreaks of any time of year of the 20th century. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold outbreak update To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 16:46:26 +1000 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Today's model update (a bit later than I'd hoped): In general, the thickness values are starting to converge (GASP has edged up a bit), but there are still differences in detail and in the evolution beyond the weekend. GASP Friday 1200Z sees the front in eastern Vic and the cold tongue centred near Mount Gambier; Mount Gambier looks like thickness around 525 and 850 hPa temperature of -5. Sub-520 just west of Strahan. By Saturday night weak cutoff in central Tasman and what looks like a second front W of Tas; sub-532 over eastern Vic and SE NSW. Remaining sub-532 in this area through Sunday night with continuing long SW fetch. High edges in VERY slowly - still centred near Adelaide next Thursday. ECMWF Friday 12Z sees a complex low over Tasmania, front along the SA coast and 528 contour lying along SA coast with the coldest air still to the west. By Saturday low has moved S (and hasn't bombed to the extent of yesterday's run). Sub-528 tongue over central Vic north to the Murray, sub-524 pool over Tas. Broad sub-532 pool over most of Vic and southern NSW on Sunday night, whereupon cold air pushes further and further north; the 544 contour reaches Mount Isa by Wednesday! UKMO Intense low over Tasmania on Friday night but cold tongue still west of the coast. Sub-528 reaches Kangaroo Island, pool west of Tas gets down to 515. Broad SW flow over SE Australia by Saturday with sub-528 pool covering all of Victoria, down to 526 in the west. Moves the cold air out faster than GASP and the EC do; 536 contour just clips the Gippsland coast on Sunday night. US Low just south of Tasmania on Friday night but weaker than UKMO, cold tongue in similar position but a bit colder (526 at Kangaroo Island). Sub-528 pool over central Vic in broad SW flow on Saturday. No progs beyond Saturday. The Bureau's higher-resolution models are also in for Friday night, but their thicknesses are not terribly reliable, historically. The most extreme model predictions have backed off a bit; I doubt if we'll see snow in Melbourne now, but would still expect a snow level well below 500 metres, especially in SW Victoria. An equally outstanding feature on the longer-range models is the northward penetration of the cold air next week, circulating around the high; in addition to the low thicknesses in Queensland noted earlier on the ECMWF, GASP has 850 hPa temperatures low enough that the 4 C isotherm is at latitude 22-24 S from the WA border eastward. (By way of comparison, last night this isotherm was running along the southern coast, more or less, with even SW Tasmania at about 3). This means very low temperatures somewhere along the line over much of central and eastern Australia in the first half of next week, although cloud cover will determine whether it's low maxima or low minima that are most noticeable. Don't be surprised to see Alice Springs down around -4 next week. I expect many May records to be broken. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: jacob at mail.iinet.net.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1 Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 15:10:19 +0800 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jacob Subject: aus-wx: SE Forecasts Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Interesting forecast high's from CNN, even though I guess they are computer generated, but that just shows how cold the models are saying. Melbourne Saturday: Rain, Min: -1C Max: 6C Sunday: Cloudy, Min: 0C Max: 5C Ofcourse this is very unlikley, especially the -1C minimum, and if it wouldnt get above 6C all day, you would say it would snow, but the chances of that is low. http://cnn.com/WEATHER/html/MelbourneAustralia.html Canberra: Saturday: Snow, Min: -4C Max: 5C Sunday: Cloudy, Min: -6C Max: 5C Canberra has had very cold temperatures before, but the -4C and -6C temps is very unlikely with cloud cover about. http://cnn.com/WEATHER/html/CanberraAustralia.html Hobart: Saturday: Showers, Min: -4C Max: 8C Sunday: Snow, Min: -2C Max: 3C The Hobart temperatures that cold are almost impossible, as it would easily break Hobart's coldest maximum and minimum records. -4C with cloud cover? very unlikely. http://cnn.com/WEATHER/html/HobartAustralia.html Jacob +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 18:12:37 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: SE Forecasts Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Just checked around some of the BoM pages, the only mentions of snow are for highland snowfalls in Tassie, and snowfalls to lower levels in Vic, pasted below. Regards, Carl. >IDF20V00 > >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY >VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE > >Future Developments >Issued at 1600 on Thursday the 25th of May 2000 > >A cold front will move across Victoria during Friday with a vigorous >southwesterly airstream to follow on Saturday and Sunday as a low forms near >Tasmania and deepens. Moderation is expected Monday. > >Showers should spread to all districts on Friday and may tend to rain in some >districts later. Snowfalls will develop on the ranges and descend to lower >levels during Friday night. Colder, strengthening northwesterly winds will >tend >west to southwesterly from the west. > >Saturday will remain cold with showers, mainly in southern and mountain areas, >falling as snow to low levels. Local hail and thunder is also possible in the >south along with strong squally southwest wind. > >Cold fresh southwesterly wins will continue on Sunday and Monday. Once again >showers will be confined mainly to southern and mountain areas, falling as >snow >over the alpine regions. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lyle Pakula" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow Chase & new email addy Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 19:05:54 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi, There pretty slack around Gippsland - were probably going to be chancing it at night - not looking too forward to that - but have done it many times before ;) cya, Lyle - - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- - - . / \ . /~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day " / \ \ / \ \ ----- Original Message ----- From: Michael Thompson To: Sent: Wednesday, May 24, 2000 8:33 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow Chase & new email addy > Just be careful on the roads guys, although from experience I know most of > you are careful drivers. I hope the police do not put up road blocks, they > did that with the last Southern Highlands fall in 1998. You may have to get > up there before the snow starts. > > > Michael > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Matthew Smith > To: > Sent: Wednesday, 24 May 2000 17:44 > Subject: aus-wx: Snow Chase & new email addy > > > > Hi everyone! > > A snow chase will probably be on the cards this weekend around the Blue > > Mountains. A number of people have expressed interest so far in chasing, > > and anyone else who wants to come can ! An overnight stay may also be a > > possibility on saturday, to get the most out of this system as we can :) > > > > I am not sure if i will be able to go, I will know in the next day or 2. > > But if it still looks good on friday/saturday morning, I recommend > > people get together for a bit of chase. > > > > Also please dont forget about the forecasts on the Sydney Storm Chasers > > page, done nightly by Matt Pearce (AKA Proffessor :) , for detailed > > forecasts for NSW. > > http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/forecasts/index.htm > > > > BTW I now have cable internet access with Telstra, and im loving it > > hehehe > > New emial is tornado at bigpond.net.au > > > > Matt Smith > > http://www.sydneystormchasers.com > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 19:44:12 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow Chase SA Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Looks like the coldest air has backed off for SA until Saturday morning. Although models and forecasts seemed to have slacked off a bit [damn, when will a cold outbreak really suprise us with unexpected and unforcasted severity...Blair?] early Saturday morning after an eveing's chill has traditionally been a good time for an SA snow chase - anywhere above the 600m mark might hit pay dirt [pay snow?] I'll still be out tomorrow trying to run under a cold Cb or two in the afternoon after the rain band passes. Fun! Phil 'Paisley' Bagust paisley at cobweb.com.au http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.23.72.3] From: "Lyle Pakula" To: "Aussie-Weather Mailing List" Subject: aus-wx: Opinion on thw inds of this latest outbreak.... Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 19:48:53 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, We've all talked about the cold outbreak that's comming but not has been mentioned of the winds - the models do not seem to confer with each other. Any opinions on what you think the winds will be like at about the 850hPa over the outlook period? Cheers, Lyle. p.s. a frightening thing on the latest outlook - freezing level rising but rain persisiting...nooooooooooooo! - - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- - - . / \ . /~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day " / \ \ / \ \ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------