From: "The Weather Co." To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: mini tornadoes Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 05:14:51 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Don, Jimmy and all I have to say I fully agree with you, Don, and was considering writing an email to the list of similar content yesterday afternoon but decided against it for fear that I may get my head blown off! This is mainly due to the reaction I have received from some people whenever I raise the topic of why the term "mini-tornado" is so hated amongst people on this list. I understand the reasoning of most of the people that I have spoken to that they have a problem with the usage of the term for any strong wind event that occurs in Australia, tornadic or otherwise. I fully agree on this point, but I do not feel that is a problem with the term "mini-tornado" itself. The prefix "mini-" simply means small (although I am led to believe some would disagree), so therefore, surely a "mini-tornado" is just a small tornado. Now, whether this particular event was small or not is a matter of debate and I suppose the idea of small will always be a relative one. However, the point remains, the term "mini-tornado" is not at fault there if it wasn't, it would be the usage of it. The main problem I have with the term mini-tornado is that the media seems to like using it to describe any form of strong winds, straight line or tornadic, and I believe this is where you run into problems. If the public associates any strong winds as a mini-tornado, and then when a "real" mini-tornado does hit, how are they going to ever know that this one was actually a tornado at all? Therefore, I believe the way to go in this particular debate is not to ban the usage of the term "mini-tornado" altogether as some people on this list seem to want to make it their life's mission to do! Rather, campaign the media to reserve the term for events which have been confirmed as being tornadic. If, in the heat of the moment, right after the event, it is still exactly unsure whether it was a tornado or not, call it a "windstorm" or something until it is confirmed. THEN make it public when it is confirmed as a tornado, so that the public can be educated that Australia DOES actually get tornadoes. Second to all this is my dislike of the prefix "freak". I would much rather ban the term "freak tornado" because why are they freak?! They occur, quite often in Australia etc etc, but then again, that is another story... I hope I have not offended anyone in my statements here, but as I had been planning on raising this topic myself in this forum, now seemed as good a time as any :) May the discussion begin... Matthew Pearce ____________________ The Weather Company Level 2, 7 West Street North Sydney 2060 Phone: (02) 9955 7704 Fax: (02) 9955 1536 twc at theweather.com.au ----- Original Message ----- From: Don White To: Aussie Weather Sent: Sunday, June 25, 2000 5:50 AM Subject: aus-wx: mini tornadoes > We have to be careful not to get too carried away by the media use of > "mini-tornado." > Being aware that many straight but severe down draughts are often in > correctly tagged as such, a mini tornado is - after all a small tornado. > As far as I can ascertain from the media reports that what happened in > Fairy Dell last Thursday, it was a small - by most standards - tornado > so maybe a mini tornado is a correct title on this occasion but hardly a > sufficient difference to get worked up about. > > Don White > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 07:27:31 -0700 From: Lindsay X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: mini tornadoes Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Interesting Matt, Actually, I had some similar thoughts myself but don't know a great deal about Tornados, I must say, so I was reluctant to comment. Matt's commenced an interesting line of thinking here, though... Don't worry Matt, I can't imagine you getting your head blown off. That's what this list is for, to encourage debate, we all want to learn. Lindsay Pearce (No relation, that I know of) > > Hi Don, Jimmy and all > > I have to say I fully agree with you, Don, and was considering writing an > email to the list of similar content yesterday afternoon but decided against > it for fear that I may get my head blown off! This is mainly due to the > reaction I have received from some people whenever I raise the topic of why > the term "mini-tornado" is so hated amongst people on this list. > > I understand the reasoning of most of the people that I have spoken to that > they have a problem with the usage of the term for any strong wind event > that occurs in Australia, tornadic or otherwise. I fully agree on this > point, but I do not feel that is a problem with the term "mini-tornado" > itself. The prefix "mini-" simply means small (although I am led to believe > some would disagree), so therefore, surely a "mini-tornado" is just a small > tornado. Now, whether this particular event was small or not is a matter of > debate and I suppose the idea of small will always be a relative one. > However, the point remains, the term "mini-tornado" is not at fault there if > it wasn't, it would be the usage of it. > > The main problem I have with the term mini-tornado is that the media seems > to like using it to describe any form of strong winds, straight line or > tornadic, and I believe this is where you run into problems. If the public > associates any strong winds as a mini-tornado, and then when a "real" > mini-tornado does hit, how are they going to ever know that this one was > actually a tornado at all? Therefore, I believe the way to go in this > particular debate is not to ban the usage of the term "mini-tornado" > altogether as some people on this list seem to want to make it their life's > mission to do! Rather, campaign the media to reserve the term for events > which have been confirmed as being tornadic. If, in the heat of the moment, > right after the event, it is still exactly unsure whether it was a tornado > or not, call it a "windstorm" or something until it is confirmed. THEN make > it public when it is confirmed as a tornado, so that the public can be > educated that Australia DOES actually get tornadoes. > > Second to all this is my dislike of the prefix "freak". I would much rather > ban the term "freak tornado" because why are they freak?! They occur, quite > often in Australia etc etc, but then again, that is another story... > > I hope I have not offended anyone in my statements here, but as I had been > planning on raising this topic myself in this forum, now seemed as good a > time as any :) > > May the discussion begin... > > Matthew Pearce > ____________________ > The Weather Company > Level 2, 7 West Street > North Sydney 2060 > Phone: (02) 9955 7704 > Fax: (02) 9955 1536 > twc at theweather.com.au > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Don White > To: Aussie Weather > Sent: Sunday, June 25, 2000 5:50 AM > Subject: aus-wx: mini tornadoes > > > We have to be careful not to get too carried away by the media use of > > "mini-tornado." > > Being aware that many straight but severe down draughts are often in > > correctly tagged as such, a mini tornado is - after all a small tornado. > > As far as I can ascertain from the media reports that what happened in > > Fairy Dell last Thursday, it was a small - by most standards - tornado > > so maybe a mini tornado is a correct title on this occasion but hardly a > > sufficient difference to get worked up about. > > > > Don White > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 11:10:47 +1000 From: MSC - Jane ONeill X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: mini tornadoes Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just a couple of thoughts about the use of descriptive versus scientific terminology...... 1) Why do we need to have a descriptive term regarding tornadoes at all? The Fujita scale was created to serve this purpose. 2) The use of descriptive terms such as 'small' is purely subjective rather than objective, and as we are involved in the study of a science (which is objective rather than subjective). I would have thought that the use of descriptive terms is fraught with danger. 3) If the Fairy Dell tornado is considered to be possibly a high F1 - low F2 tornado...is that a small tornado???????????? My 3 cents worth..... Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill cadence at rubix.net.au Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence soon to be http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- "The Weather Co." wrote: > > Hi Don, Jimmy and all > > I have to say I fully agree with you, Don, and was considering writing an > email to the list of similar content yesterday afternoon but decided against > it for fear that I may get my head blown off! This is mainly due to the > reaction I have received from some people whenever I raise the topic of why > the term "mini-tornado" is so hated amongst people on this list. > > I understand the reasoning of most of the people that I have spoken to that > they have a problem with the usage of the term for any strong wind event > that occurs in Australia, tornadic or otherwise. I fully agree on this > point, but I do not feel that is a problem with the term "mini-tornado" > itself. The prefix "mini-" simply means small (although I am led to believe > some would disagree), so therefore, surely a "mini-tornado" is just a small > tornado. Now, whether this particular event was small or not is a matter of > debate and I suppose the idea of small will always be a relative one. > However, the point remains, the term "mini-tornado" is not at fault there if > it wasn't, it would be the usage of it. > > The main problem I have with the term mini-tornado is that the media seems > to like using it to describe any form of strong winds, straight line or > tornadic, and I believe this is where you run into problems. If the public > associates any strong winds as a mini-tornado, and then when a "real" > mini-tornado does hit, how are they going to ever know that this one was > actually a tornado at all? Therefore, I believe the way to go in this > particular debate is not to ban the usage of the term "mini-tornado" > altogether as some people on this list seem to want to make it their life's > mission to do! Rather, campaign the media to reserve the term for events > which have been confirmed as being tornadic. If, in the heat of the moment, > right after the event, it is still exactly unsure whether it was a tornado > or not, call it a "windstorm" or something until it is confirmed. THEN make > it public when it is confirmed as a tornado, so that the public can be > educated that Australia DOES actually get tornadoes. > > Second to all this is my dislike of the prefix "freak". I would much rather > ban the term "freak tornado" because why are they freak?! They occur, quite > often in Australia etc etc, but then again, that is another story... > > I hope I have not offended anyone in my statements here, but as I had been > planning on raising this topic myself in this forum, now seemed as good a > time as any :) > > May the discussion begin... > > Matthew Pearce > ____________________ > The Weather Company > Level 2, 7 West Street > North Sydney 2060 > Phone: (02) 9955 7704 > Fax: (02) 9955 1536 > twc at theweather.com.au > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Don White > To: Aussie Weather > Sent: Sunday, June 25, 2000 5:50 AM > Subject: aus-wx: mini tornadoes > > > We have to be careful not to get too carried away by the media use of > > "mini-tornado." > > Being aware that many straight but severe down draughts are often in > > correctly tagged as such, a mini tornado is - after all a small tornado. > > As far as I can ascertain from the media reports that what happened in > > Fairy Dell last Thursday, it was a small - by most standards - tornado > > so maybe a mini tornado is a correct title on this occasion but hardly a > > sufficient difference to get worked up about. > > > > Don White +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.109.250.95] From: "Paul Graham" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: mini tornadoes Date: Sat, 24 Jun 2000 18:09:54 PDT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I think "willy-willy" is the best term - what do you think? I remember reading a news report of a tornado that destroyed a house in Sydney, sometime in the '50's. It was reported as a "vicious willy-willy". >From: Lindsay >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: Re: aus-wx: mini tornadoes >Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 07:27:31 -0700 > >Interesting Matt, > >Actually, I had some similar thoughts myself but don't know a great deal >about Tornados, I must say, so I was reluctant to comment. > >Matt's commenced an interesting line of thinking here, though... > >Don't worry Matt, I can't imagine you getting your head blown off. >That's what this list is for, to encourage debate, we all want to learn. > > >Lindsay Pearce (No relation, that I know of) > > > > > Hi Don, Jimmy and all > > > > I have to say I fully agree with you, Don, and was considering writing >an > > email to the list of similar content yesterday afternoon but decided >against > > it for fear that I may get my head blown off! This is mainly due to the > > reaction I have received from some people whenever I raise the topic of >why > > the term "mini-tornado" is so hated amongst people on this list. > > > > I understand the reasoning of most of the people that I have spoken to >that > > they have a problem with the usage of the term for any strong wind event > > that occurs in Australia, tornadic or otherwise. I fully agree on this > > point, but I do not feel that is a problem with the term "mini-tornado" > > itself. The prefix "mini-" simply means small (although I am led to >believe > > some would disagree), so therefore, surely a "mini-tornado" is just a >small > > tornado. Now, whether this particular event was small or not is a matter >of > > debate and I suppose the idea of small will always be a relative one. > > However, the point remains, the term "mini-tornado" is not at fault >there if > > it wasn't, it would be the usage of it. > > > > The main problem I have with the term mini-tornado is that the media >seems > > to like using it to describe any form of strong winds, straight line or > > tornadic, and I believe this is where you run into problems. If the >public > > associates any strong winds as a mini-tornado, and then when a "real" > > mini-tornado does hit, how are they going to ever know that this one was > > actually a tornado at all? Therefore, I believe the way to go in this > > particular debate is not to ban the usage of the term "mini-tornado" > > altogether as some people on this list seem to want to make it their >life's > > mission to do! Rather, campaign the media to reserve the term for events > > which have been confirmed as being tornadic. If, in the heat of the >moment, > > right after the event, it is still exactly unsure whether it was a >tornado > > or not, call it a "windstorm" or something until it is confirmed. THEN >make > > it public when it is confirmed as a tornado, so that the public can be > > educated that Australia DOES actually get tornadoes. > > > > Second to all this is my dislike of the prefix "freak". I would much >rather > > ban the term "freak tornado" because why are they freak?! They occur, >quite > > often in Australia etc etc, but then again, that is another story... > > > > I hope I have not offended anyone in my statements here, but as I had >been > > planning on raising this topic myself in this forum, now seemed as good >a > > time as any :) > > > > May the discussion begin... > > > > Matthew Pearce > > ____________________ > > The Weather Company > > Level 2, 7 West Street > > North Sydney 2060 > > Phone: (02) 9955 7704 > > Fax: (02) 9955 1536 > > twc at theweather.com.au > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Don White > > To: Aussie Weather > > Sent: Sunday, June 25, 2000 5:50 AM > > Subject: aus-wx: mini tornadoes > > > > > We have to be careful not to get too carried away by the media use of > > > "mini-tornado." > > > Being aware that many straight but severe down draughts are often in > > > correctly tagged as such, a mini tornado is - after all a small >tornado. > > > As far as I can ascertain from the media reports that what happened >in > > > Fairy Dell last Thursday, it was a small - by most standards - tornado > > > so maybe a mini tornado is a correct title on this occasion but hardly >a > > > sufficient difference to get worked up about. > > > > > > Don White > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your > > > message. > > > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 15:14:21 +1000 From: MSC - Jane ONeill X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie-wx Subject: aus-wx: Fairy Dell tornado reports Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I'm putting scans of the newspaper reports on the Fairy Dell tornado up. Bendigo Advertiser 23/6/00 http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/benadv2.htm Bendigo Advertiser 24/6/00 http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/benadv2401.htm Geelong Advertiser 24/6/00 http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/geeadv8.htm The What's New page will list them as more go up http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/wotznu.htm Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill cadence at rubix.net.au Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2 Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 15:47:58 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: More photos Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The latest photos can be observed at the following: http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/index.html Please enjoy. Jimmy Deguara ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------- Jimmy Deguara from Schofields, Sydney President of Australian Severe Weather Association Inc. (ASWA) http://severeweather.asn.au e-mail: jdeguara at ihug.com.au homepage with Michael Bath note new URL http://australiasevereweather.com/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Another cold outbreak for the SE next Thursday? Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 07:58:10 GMT X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id DAA15755 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There's pretty good consistency between the EC, GASP, US and NOGAPS in predicting a moderately cold outbreak over Vic and eastern NSW on Thursday. GASP and the US both bring 850hPa temps of <-2C and 500hPa temps of around -30 well up into eastern NSW. NOGAPS is a tad warmer, and EC probably does, judging by the thicknesses, but I don't have that data. Possibly most significantly, the US develops a fairly strong (>60kts) southerly jet just to the west of Tasmania, extending from 60S to the Victorian coast -- good upper level southerly support seems to be a prerequisite for a "normal" cold outbreak. All the models drop the thickness over eastern Vic/NSW to <536 sometime on the Thursday, with the EC being the most adventurous with a closed 532 line over the NSW Central Tablelands (get ready, Lindsay!) The EC is also most bullish in the development of an east coast low, initiating it in western Bass Strait on Wednesday night, moving it off the NSW South Coast by Thursday night, and having it 800km east of Sydney at 992hPa by Friday night. The others also develop lows, but range from east of the Strait to SE of Tasmania. Whoever is forecasting this afternoon at the Bureau's Sydney RFC appears to be convinced, because the Southern, Central and Northern Tablelands forecasts for Thursday all have "snow on higher ground" in them. The Victorian outlook for Thursday at present is content with local hail. Hopefully this official recognition won't jynx the outcome! -- Laurier Williams Australian Weather News & Links http://ausweather.simplenet.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 18:23:34 -0700 From: Lindsay X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another cold outbreak for the SE next Thursday? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sounds great to me Laurier, looking forward to it! I might be able to organise a chase midweek too, depending on my workload. If this weather eventuates folk, lets try and co-ordinate one. I have a young guy here interested in chasing again, he loved the last one. We've got some good pics from near Mount Trickett too, from last time. Lindsay Pearce Laurier Williams wrote: > > There's pretty good consistency between the EC, GASP, US and NOGAPS in > predicting a moderately cold outbreak over Vic and eastern NSW on > Thursday. GASP and the US both bring 850hPa temps of <-2C and 500hPa > temps of around -30 well up into eastern NSW. NOGAPS is a tad warmer, > and EC probably does, judging by the thicknesses, but I don't have > that data. Possibly most significantly, the US develops a fairly > strong (>60kts) southerly jet just to the west of Tasmania, extending > from 60S to the Victorian coast -- good upper level southerly support > seems to be a prerequisite for a "normal" cold outbreak. > > All the models drop the thickness over eastern Vic/NSW to <536 > sometime on the Thursday, with the EC being the most adventurous with > a closed 532 line over the NSW Central Tablelands (get ready, > Lindsay!) The EC is also most bullish in the development of an east > coast low, initiating it in western Bass Strait on Wednesday night, > moving it off the NSW South Coast by Thursday night, and having it > 800km east of Sydney at 992hPa by Friday night. The others also > develop lows, but range from east of the Strait to SE of Tasmania. > > Whoever is forecasting this afternoon at the Bureau's Sydney RFC > appears to be convinced, because the Southern, Central and Northern > Tablelands forecasts for Thursday all have "snow on higher ground" in > them. The Victorian outlook for Thursday at present is content with > local hail. Hopefully this official recognition won't jynx the > outcome! > > -- > Laurier Williams > Australian Weather News & Links > http://ausweather.simplenet.com > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 4.3.2 Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 19:32:43 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Andrew Wall Subject: aus-wx: SA Page is now up!!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everyone, for those not in the ASWA, just letting you know I have put up the new South Australian Severe Weather page. It can be found at http://sastorms.virtualave.net check it out, don't be shy :) more chase reports to come Andrew +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [206.18.106.94] From: "Paul Graham" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another cold outbreak for the SE next Thursday? Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 03:14:06 PDT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I'm wondering whether we might see another severe weather outbreak similar to last Wednesday as the first front moves through? - Paul G. >From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: aus-wx: Another cold outbreak for the SE next Thursday? >Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 07:58:10 GMT > >There's pretty good consistency between the EC, GASP, US and NOGAPS in >predicting a moderately cold outbreak over Vic and eastern NSW on >Thursday. GASP and the US both bring 850hPa temps of <-2C and 500hPa >temps of around -30 well up into eastern NSW. NOGAPS is a tad warmer, >and EC probably does, judging by the thicknesses, but I don't have >that data. Possibly most significantly, the US develops a fairly >strong (>60kts) southerly jet just to the west of Tasmania, extending >from 60S to the Victorian coast -- good upper level southerly support >seems to be a prerequisite for a "normal" cold outbreak. > >All the models drop the thickness over eastern Vic/NSW to <536 >sometime on the Thursday, with the EC being the most adventurous with >a closed 532 line over the NSW Central Tablelands (get ready, >Lindsay!) The EC is also most bullish in the development of an east >coast low, initiating it in western Bass Strait on Wednesday night, >moving it off the NSW South Coast by Thursday night, and having it >800km east of Sydney at 992hPa by Friday night. The others also >develop lows, but range from east of the Strait to SE of Tasmania. > >Whoever is forecasting this afternoon at the Bureau's Sydney RFC >appears to be convinced, because the Southern, Central and Northern >Tablelands forecasts for Thursday all have "snow on higher ground" in >them. The Victorian outlook for Thursday at present is content with >local hail. Hopefully this official recognition won't jynx the >outcome! > >-- >Laurier Williams >Australian Weather News & Links >http://ausweather.simplenet.com > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 20:47:43 +1000 From: MSC - Jane ONeill X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another cold outbreak for the SE next Thursday? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Paul Graham wrote: > > I'm wondering whether we might see another severe weather outbreak similar > to last Wednesday as the first front moves through? > - Paul G. > Paul, My inexpert opinion.... The set up for this situation seems completely different to that of last week at the moment. Admittedly, there is a wave low forming just off the south coast of WA in the western Bight, but the east-west temperature gradient at 850hPa is nowhere near as dramatic as was last week's this far out. The 300Hpa also shows a jet with a lot less punch coming in from the Indian Ocean. The sub-tropical infeed does mean that there will be plenty of moisture available - so I'm leaning more towards a rain event associated with a complex area of low pressure over the Tasmania, Victoria & southern NSW region - and the more I look, the more I think that this is starting to look like a north-west rainband. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill cadence at rubix.net.au Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence soon to be http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another cold outbreak for the SE next Thursday? Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 12:29:43 GMT X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id IAA03648 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I think the main difference is an absence of persistent high pressure well south of normal -- the progs are moving this cold outbreak through pretty quickly, with sub-540 thicknesses only lasting 24 hours over the mainland at most. Laurier On Sun, 25 Jun 2000 20:47:43 +1000, MSC - Jane ONeill wrote: > >Paul Graham wrote: >> >> I'm wondering whether we might see another severe weather outbreak similar >> to last Wednesday as the first front moves through? >> - Paul G. >> > >Paul, > >My inexpert opinion.... >The set up for this situation seems completely different to that of last >week at the moment. Admittedly, there is a wave low forming just off >the south coast of WA in the western Bight, but the east-west >temperature gradient at 850hPa is nowhere near as dramatic as was last >week's this far out. > >The 300Hpa also shows a jet with a lot less punch coming in from the >Indian Ocean. The sub-tropical infeed does mean that there will be >plenty of moisture available - so I'm leaning more towards a rain event >associated with a complex area of low pressure over the Tasmania, >Victoria & southern NSW region - and the more I look, the more I think >that this is starting to look like a north-west rainband. > >Jane > >-------------------------------- >Jane ONeill >cadence at rubix.net.au > >Melbourne Storm Chasers >http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence >soon to be >http://www.stormchasers.au.com > >ASWA - Victoria >http://www.severeweather.asn.au > >-------------------------------- > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fairy Dell Tornado F rating (was mini tornadoes) Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2000 22:30:22 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane, According to my Tornado video series, the F rating of a Tornado is based upon the single most severe damage observed along the path. So for example, if only 1 well constructed house is completely destroyed (F4) then the entire path is rated F4. On this basis the rating for the Fairy Dell tornado is probably F3 given the damage to the Merret house which included walls destroyed (as reported in the media). Regards, John. >snip 3) If the Fairy Dell tornado is considered to be possibly a high F1 - low F2 tornado...is that a small tornado???????????? +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------