From: "Pearce" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 01:02:28 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Dean and all,
 
This is Anthony Cornelius here - I'm staying at Matthew Pearce's house for the duration of the AGM and associated activities that have been organised here.  While quickly going through the aussie-weather list emails, this email in particular caught my eye, most probably because of my strong objections towards it.
 
I think that quite a few people tend to believe supercells have some special property in them that makes them so different from other thunderstorms.  People will often say that a supercell is different because it hes a mesocyclone.  But multicells, single cells and even showers all can have mesocyclones too!!!
 
The BoM definition of a supercell is: a mesocyclone with a vertical vorticity of >0.01s^1 and extend for at least 1/3 of the depth of the thunderstorm cell that lasts for tens (20+) of minutes
 
Remembering of course that a mesocyclone is simply just a rotating updraft.
 
While thinking about this - one could say that all tornadoes do in fact require a mesocyclone to be present to form.  Remembering of course that there'd be some sort of rotation in the updraft just above the tornado.
 
So what's the difference between a thunderstorm cell with a mesocyclone that is rotating at 0.02s^1 and lasts for 45mins, and a thunderstorm cell that has a mesocyclone that lasts for 10mins...both of which produce a vortex that reaches the ground?  None in my opinion!  It's simply a matter of scaling and strength of the cells involved.
 
So in this, a supercell would not physically be much different to other thunderstorms, or cells in regards to tornado formation.  But purely, just the size factor.  It would seem somewhat absurd to classify it differently to the extent that a tornado must come out of a mesocyclone that lasts for at least 20mins, compared to say a mutlcell that produces a tornado after only having a mesocyclone for 10mins.
 
Hence a tornado is a tornado if it's a vortex underneath a coastal shower - or if it comes from underneath a 5hr supercell.  Both would have had mesocyclones (ie, rotating updrafts), but again - simply a scaling factor as in one is short lived, weak and shallow in regards to the extent and the other is long lived, strong and deep.
 
Regards,
 
Anthony Cornelius
 
PS Everyone - FANTASTIC AGM!!!!!! (and so say all of us!)
<snip>
Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 01:38:29 +1000 From: Andrew Miskelly X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: REPORT: Wollongong storm 01/08/00 - Illawarra Mercury article Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yet another piece of ecxeptionally ordinary reporting, let me tell you, as one of the people who chased this storm that the following snippet of this article is absolute bollocks - it was a summer-style storm! > The commuter chaos began just before 5pm, when plummeting temperatures on > Mt Ousley turned heavy rain into hail. > > Hail and sleet reduced visibility on the F6 to a matter of metres, coating > the road with a layer of sheet ice. Andrew. Robert Goler wrote: > > Perhaps people may have seen this already, but here's an article I came > across in the Illawarra Mercury on 02/08/00. Perhaps the 11th paragraph > may be interesting as it notes that residents in Corrimal and Bulli were > reporting hail big enough to damage cars. Although the next paragraph says > that minimal damage occurred. So, I guess this doesn't clear anything up. > > ----- > > Hail Chaos > By Jodi Allen And Geoff Failes > Illawarra Mercury > > A violent hailstorm, torrential rain and lightning strikes wreaked havoc > with peak-hour road and rail movements in the Illawarra last night. > > The commuter chaos began just before 5pm, when plummeting temperatures on > Mt Ousley turned heavy rain into hail. > > Hail and sleet reduced visibility on the F6 to a matter of metres, coating > the road with a layer of sheet ice. > > Even moving at a snail's pace drivers reported having no control over > their vehicles on the treacherous surface. > > Minutes after the storm hit a series of accidents forced traffic to a > standstill. > > In one incident 10 vehicles were damaged and two people were taken to > Wollongong Hospital with back injuries after a domino- effect collision, > northbound at Cataract Creek. > > Traffic was backed up as far as Bulli Pass behind the accident scene. > > Police closed the F6, both north- and south-bound, for one hour, at first > due to the accidents and then due to the hazardous road conditions. > > Traffic was diverted along Picton Rd and Bulli Pass. > > Things were no better for rail travellers who faced delays of up to 50 > minutes after lightning strikes damaged signals between Bulli and Corrimal. > > Well before the Sydney weather bureau issued a 5.30pm severe thunderstorm > warning for the greater Wollongong area, residents in Corrimal and > Bulli were reporting hail stones large enough to damage cars. > > The State Emergency Service Illawarra-South division reported slight > damage in the Corrimal area from the hailstorm. > > The spokeswoman said six calls for assistance were received, including one > regarding damage to a roof, but three were later cancelled. > > ``The hail was about 10 inches deep in some places, we were told,'' she > said. > > At the height of the storm Wollongong police were kept busy attending to > flooded local roads and several traffic accidents. > > But the storm was nothing like the one that devastated southern Sydney in > April last year. > > By 7pm the Bureau of Meteorology said the storm had moved out to sea and > further severe weather was no longer expected, although some thunderstorms > had been forecast for the Southern Highlands. > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > Department of Mathematics and Statistics > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- -- Andrew Miskelly Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW amiskelly at ozemail.com.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Heavy rain (storms?) for NSW Sunday; Cold midweek? Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2000 17:22:28 GMT X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id NAA13873 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Until the later model runs came in today (Saturday), the EC was a lone voice in forecasting a brief cold snap as far north as central NSW on late Tuesday/Wednesday. The 00 runs for GASP and MRF have now joined the party. And both the US and GASP are going for some decent rain across central NSW on Sunday into Monday. EC, now quite old (based 12z Friday) has the 528 line over west Gippsland on Tuesday evening, with the 532 outlining a quite broad trough into central NSW. GASP based on 00z Saturday has 536 thickness into central NSW on Wednesday morning, with >5mm rain and 850 temps <-2 over Victoria. MRF based on 00z is pretty similar to GASP, though with a somewhat broader thermal trough. All three models suggest a mainly SSW airflow over Vic and NSW, which would keep the main chance of lowish level snowfalls in southern Victoria. Also worth watching is the cold air pool currently over eastern SA. All three models maintain its integrity as it moves through central NSW Sunday, then weaken it but keep it moving NE into SE Qld. GASP still has sub-zero air at 850 over southern Qld on Wednesday from this system. The thermal trough forecast for midweek results from a separate system moving up from the WSW under the Bight, and, while it will be helped by residual cold lower atmosphere air from the current cold pool, it is distinct from it. Of real interest are the rainfall amounts being predicted from the interaction of the cold pool and cloudmass over central and eastern NSW on Sunday and into Monday morning, with MRF, GASP and mesoLAPS all going for general falls >15mm, and spot highs around 40mm. GASP has >50 tot tots over most of the state for Sunday, so chasers should be checking the other indices for the best spots! Could be an interesting few days. -- Laurier Williams Australian Weather News & Links http://ausweather.simplenet.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2000 15:43:04 -0400 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id PAA27830 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anthony wrote: > Hi Dean and all, > > This is Anthony Cornelius here - I'm staying at Matthew Pearce's house for the duration of the AGM and associated activities that have been organised here. While quickly going through the aussie-weather list emails, this email in particular caught my eye, most probably because of my strong objections towards it. > > I think that quite a few people tend to believe supercells have some special property in them that makes them so different from other thunderstorms. People will often say that a supercell is different because it hes a mesocyclone. But multicells, single cells and even showers all can have mesocyclones too!!! > etc. etc. I am unsure who wrote the last paragraph above but I am afraid that, and the rest of the message contents have not been supported by the last 30 years of Doppler radar and other observations of a variety of storms. Rather than go through the message point by point, I will mention a few facts we have learned over the years and leave it at that. Supercells are the storms they are BECAUSE of the presence of a mesocyclone. Not every tornado is associated with a mesocyclone and not every mesocyclone is associated with tornadoes. The percentage of mesocyclones that are associated with tornadoes has steadily decreased. As our Doppler observations of storms increased we began to understand that fewer mesocyclones produced tornadoes than we had ever imagined. Now we believe that somewhere between 20% to as low as 5% produce tornadoes. However, > 90% of the mesocyclonic storms (supercells) produce some form of severe weather, large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes. Storms with mesocyclones are a relative rarity, otherwise severe storms would be the norm. What we call "landspouts" are most often associated with "misocyclones" or circulations that are less than ~ 1500 meters across, some much less. Moreover, these circulations are confined to the boundary layer most of their lives. In a few cases these "misocyclones" will grow upscale to mesocyclone sizes and extend vertically reaching somewhat above cloud base. Often that will occur as the landspouts cease. Most "gustnadoes" are not associated with mesocyclones. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "James Chambers" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: STORM: Re Huntly Tornado - New Zealand Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 09:39:33 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi again all I just re-read my email and I realise it could have been taken by some people the wrong way. (Just in case some of you did) I was laughing at the M word, not the fact that people's homes have been damaged etc. I apologise if anyone got that impression!!! Regards James Chambers >Hi John and all > >I just found a report on the event from www.stuff.co.nz and it starts off >like this: >"A mini-tornado struck Huntly this morning tearing off several roofs, >downing power lines and uplifting trees." Hehehehe > >The rest of the report is here: >http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,310323a10,FF.html > >On another note, it's cool and clear here in "Woody" (just south of >Brisbane) just after Midnight on Saturday. Currently 6.8C after a max temp >on Friday of 24.3C. On Friday morning my thermo recorded 2.3C - quite a >surprise!!! Amberley scored 0C. > >Regards >James Chambers > >PS: For those at the ASWA AGM - Have a good one!! > >>Re Huntly tornado >> >>The tornado that moved through and twisted for 5kms through the towns of >>Huntly and Te Kauri in the northern Waikato at 7.30am Friday 11th was >>probably close to a F2. >>Lots of damage to roofs and reports of an actual shed with people in it >>being lifted up off the ground. A washing machine was lifted and carried 60 >>metres. >>Unfortunately there are no storm chasers in the North Island and as I am >>based in Christchurch where we don't get storms, no footage of the actual >>tornado was made to my knowledge, mind you it was early in the morning. >> >>The tornadoes that we do get here in New Zealand are mainly on the west >>coast of the country, in this case, I wouldn't be surprised if there were >>waterspouts off the coast of Waikato. The upper level is very cold and the >>Tassy Sea temps are quite warm and this trough did really spawn out with >>some thunderstorm activity in western areas. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bill Webb" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Expert Advice appreciated Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 09:23:59 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi List, from Bill in Proserpine, Qld Overcast here presently, with the odd shower about from the on-shore moist trade winds. Temp about 19C at 0830 EAST. Part of my job as an adviser in the sugar industry is to provide crop management advice on irrigation. Obviously the weather, and climate, affect on-farm management decisions in both the short and longer terms. Many other farm management activities (other than irrigation related) are also subject to the vagaries of the weather. In an effort to provide information to growers, I have set up a site where growers can access weather and climate related information. The URL's are http://tpgi.com.au/users/billwebb/bsesext/mainurls/weather.htm and http://tpgi.com.au/users/billwebb/bsesext/mainurls/climate.htm I guess you could call it an attempt to "put the weather to work". Most of the links have been sourced from the expert advice of members of this list - and I thank you all very much for this advice. I cannot begin to explain how much the list has increased my basic knowledge of all things weather related. A special thanks to Anthony Cornelius who has supplied me with very useful specific information. Now I seek further advice. Are the links above giving growers the information they need, and are there any more/better sites which would assist me in my endeavors? Please bear in mind that, along with myself, the cane growers are NOT weather experts. We do run basic "understanding the weather charts" workshops in conjunction with BoM forecasters from time to time - but that is about all. SO, sites crammed with various indices would not help much at this time. Others on the list may also be interested, but optionally please send any advice to billwebb at tpgi.com.au Thanks in advance. Sounds like the ASWA annual meeting went well. Unfortunately I could not make it. Congratulations to all the re-elected office bearers. You are all doing a great job, as seen by one who is so far removed from the more concentrated capital city action. I look forward to hearing from you. Regards, Bill +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "macdonald" To: Subject: aus-wx: AF CLIMATE Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 10:48:13 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All
 
As usual I'm late with my preparation for my assessment.  AF climate,  South-eastern trade winds along the Queensland coast result in some precipitation along a narrow coastal region.  It is more conspicuous in the winter months where the high mountains produce an orographic effect.  They cause moisture laden
air-streams to rise, become saturated, and precipition results. Two highest mountains in Queensland are located here, Mt Bartle Frere 1622m and Bellenden Kerr.  Some modest falls in winter are a feature of the AF climate.  It is located between Townsville and Cairns.  Summer rains can be very intense and heavy. Australia's highest rainfall is recorded in this region at such places as Tully, annual rainfall of about 3750mm.
 
Sam
 
Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 11:08:45 +1000 From: Andrew Miskelly X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: FORECAST: First ECL? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, The latest Coastal Wind Warning for NSW suggests that we might get our first ECL (East Coast Low) of the winter during the early part of the week. This winter has been unususal in that - discounting the low in June that brought wide-spread snow - we haven't had an ECL yet! Here's hoping. Andrew. -- Andrew Miskelly Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW amiskelly at ozemail.com.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 12:18:54 -0700 From: Lindsay Pearce X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Heavy rain (storms?) for NSW Sunday; Cold midweek? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Blackheath: Sunday 12:20pm Cool in blackheath, light rain with a temp around 6, haven't checked the thermometer but you get a rough feel for these things. Wasn't enough rain to stop us playing tennis, which was good. Hope the colder weather comes in Laurier, I have a young fella keen to chase out Oberon way and he wants to camp out near Mount Trickett! Luckily we have a good tent. Lindsay P. Laurier Williams wrote: > > Until the later model runs came in today (Saturday), the EC was a lone > voice in forecasting a brief cold snap as far north as central NSW on > late Tuesday/Wednesday. The 00 runs for GASP and MRF have now joined > the party. And both the US and GASP are going for some decent rain > across central NSW on Sunday into Monday. > > EC, now quite old (based 12z Friday) has the 528 line over west > Gippsland on Tuesday evening, with the 532 outlining a quite broad > trough into central NSW. GASP based on 00z Saturday has 536 thickness > into central NSW on Wednesday morning, with >5mm rain and 850 temps > <-2 over Victoria. MRF based on 00z is pretty similar to GASP, though > with a somewhat broader thermal trough. All three models suggest a > mainly SSW airflow over Vic and NSW, which would keep the main chance > of lowish level snowfalls in southern Victoria. > > Also worth watching is the cold air pool currently over eastern SA. > All three models maintain its integrity as it moves through central > NSW Sunday, then weaken it but keep it moving NE into SE Qld. GASP > still has sub-zero air at 850 over southern Qld on Wednesday from this > system. The thermal trough forecast for midweek results from a > separate system moving up from the WSW under the Bight, and, while it > will be helped by residual cold lower atmosphere air from the current > cold pool, it is distinct from it. > > Of real interest are the rainfall amounts being predicted from the > interaction of the cold pool and cloudmass over central and eastern > NSW on Sunday and into Monday morning, with MRF, GASP and mesoLAPS all > going for general falls >15mm, and spot highs around 40mm. GASP has > >50 tot tots over most of the state for Sunday, so chasers should be > checking the other indices for the best spots! > > Could be an interesting few days. > > -- > Laurier Williams > Australian Weather News & Links > http://ausweather.simplenet.com > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Dean Sgarbossa" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 12:59:02 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.2106.4 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello all,
    I guess the current "debate", if you will, concerning the classification of such rotating phenomena goes to prove that there is still large amounts of uncertainty in the topic of tornadogenesis and the numerous misconceptions thereof. Since research as well as science cannot explain such phenomena, at this point in time, no-one is 100% correct and nor will they be. The atmosphere and the associated weather contain unlimited surprises and circulations; local, mesoscale, synoptic as well as global phenomena that hasn't even been recognised and researched.The truth is that the atmosphere and its processes including the cause of tornadoes and other associated vorticity will never be fully understood and masked by its numerous forms, hence, accurate research will never be able to be undertaken. As explained in the words of American writer and humorist, Mark Twain:

"The weather is always doing something ... always getting
up new designs and trying them on the people to see how
they will go."

The researchers, scientists, meteorologists, and other weather enthusiasts are just the people who the weather fools on a regular basis, and the weather is seeing how we will go at trying to decipher its undecipherable code.
    Concerning the tornado climatology, no accurate research has been undertaken of late and therefore, a true climatology cannot be established. All that we know at this point in time is that tornadoes occur in Australia, despite public belief, and that they occur more regularly in certain areas and regions than others. As the population increases and the number of tornado reports also increases, maybe then an accurate frequency can be established and calculated and maybe, ASWA will have a great influence into this study. Since ASWA is doing such a great job as of this point in time of releasing and informing the public of the very real threat of severe weather, it is my personal opinion that the BoM might see ASWA as being a research organization, like TORRO, and confront the association to assist in their research and activities.
    In closing, I would like to take this opportunity to apologize for any heated discussions I may have caused. I was simply voicing my opinion into this matter and attempting to shed some light into this field of study. I apologize if I may have offended anybody in the process, but I assure you that it was not my intention to do so! On another note, I would also like to take this opportunity to thank the various members of the mailing list for their help, assistance and input into the many topics I have posted. Your information and advice has been of great help.
 
Yours sincerely,
Dean AL Sgarbossa
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Leslie R. Lemon <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sunday, 13 August 2000 5:50
Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology

>Anthony wrote:
>
>> Hi Dean and all,
>>
>> This is Anthony Cornelius here - I'm staying at Matthew Pearce's house
>for the duration of the AGM and associated activities that have been
>organised here.  While quickly going through the aussie-weather list
>emails, this email in particular caught my eye, most probably because of my
>strong objections towards it.
>>
>> I think that quite a few people tend to believe supercells have some
>special property in them that makes them so different from other
>thunderstorms.  People will often say that a supercell is different because
>it hes a mesocyclone.  But multicells, single cells and even showers all
>can have mesocyclones too!!!
>>
>                etc.            etc.
>
>I am unsure who wrote the last paragraph above but I am afraid  that, and
>the rest of the message contents have not been supported by the last 30
>years of Doppler radar and other observations of a variety of storms.
>Rather than go through the message point by point, I will mention a few
>facts we have learned over the years and leave it at that.  Supercells are
>the storms they are BECAUSE of the presence of a mesocyclone.  Not every
>tornado is associated with a mesocyclone and not every mesocyclone is
>associated with tornadoes.  The percentage of mesocyclones that are
>associated with tornadoes has steadily decreased.  As our Doppler
>observations of storms increased we began to understand that fewer
>mesocyclones produced tornadoes than we had ever imagined.  Now we believe
>that somewhere between 20% to as low as 5% produce tornadoes.  However, >
>90% of the mesocyclonic storms (supercells) produce some form of severe
>weather, large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes.  Storms with
>mesocyclones are a relative rarity, otherwise severe storms would be the
>norm.
>
>What we call "landspouts" are most often associated with "misocyclones" or
>circulations that are less than ~ 1500 meters across, some much less.
>Moreover, these circulations are confined to the boundary layer most of
>their lives.  In a few cases these "misocyclones"  will grow upscale to
>mesocyclone sizes and extend vertically reaching somewhat above cloud base.
> Often that will occur as the landspouts cease.  Most "gustnadoes" are not
>associated with mesocyclones.
>
>Les
>
>************************
>Leslie R. Lemon
>Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
>Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
>E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 14:27:03 +1000 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au To: Australian Severe Weather Association Subject: aus-wx: Re: what is a tornado? - waterspout intensities Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > From Harald Richter > > One observation is this: I have not yet heard > of a waterspout that had the intensity of a F3/F4/F5-type tornado. This may seem like a naive question, but if a waterspout is occurring over water, how do you rate it on the Fujita scale which is based on observational reports of damage to structures on land? I mean if you didn't happen to have your Doppler radar or whatever looking at the waterspout at that moment to directly determine wind speeds, how can you be certain that it didn't attain an F4/F5 intensity over water, and then just decrease as it hit land, thus showing say F2 damage. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ Department of Mathematics and Statistics Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 00:31:25 -0400 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id AAA23860 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Dean AL Sgarbossa wrote: > Hello all, > I guess the current "debate", if you will, concerning the classification of such rotating phenomena goes to prove that there is still large amounts of uncertainty in the topic of tornadogenesis and the numerous misconceptions thereof. Since research as well as science cannot explain such phenomena, at this point in time, no-one is 100% correct and nor will they be. The atmosphere and the associated weather contain unlimited surprises and circulations; local, mesoscale, synoptic as well as global phenomena that hasn't even been recognised and researched.The truth is that the atmosphere and its processes including the cause of tornadoes and other associated vorticity will never be fully understood and masked by its numerous forms, hence, accurate research will never be able to be undertaken. As explained in the words of American writer and humorist, Mark Twain: > "The weather is always doing something ... always getting > up new designs and trying them on the people to see how > they will go." > > The researchers, scientists, meteorologists, and other weather enthusiasts are just the people who the weather fools on a regular basis, and the weather is seeing how we will go at trying to decipher its undecipherable code. > Concerning the tornado climatology, no accurate research has been undertaken of late and therefore, a true climatology cannot be established. All that we know at this point in time is that tornadoes occur in Australia, despite public belief, and that they occur more regularly in certain areas and regions than others. As the population increases and the number of tornado reports also increases, maybe then an accurate frequency can be established and calculated and maybe, ASWA will have a great influence into this study. Since ASWA is doing such a great job as of this point in time of releasing and informing the public of the very real threat of severe weather, it is my personal opinion that the BoM might see ASWA as being a research organization, like TORRO, and confront the association to assist in their research and activities. > In closing, I would like to take this opportunity to apologize for any heated discussions I may have caused. I was simply voicing my opinion into this matter and attempting to shed some light into this field of study. I apologize if I may have offended anybody in the process, but I assure you that it was not my intention to do so! On another note, I would also like to take this opportunity to thank the various members of the mailing list for their help, assistance and input into the many topics I have posted. Your information and advice has been of great help. > > Yours sincerely, I just returned to the list and I jumped into this discussion late. I believe I should have said nothing, Nor did I mean to ofend anyone. Yes, you are right, Dean, there is a lot we don't know, a lot we don't understand. We are learning slowly but learning we are. But we have ever so far to go. Not only are we uncertain as to the origion of what we call "tornadoes" but we don't know why the atmosphere "needs" these small and intense circulations. What do they do that other flow processes can't do, or can't do rapidly enough? Questions and more questions.......but that is what keeps our interest and fascination in the atmosphere. Lets keep these discussions going and I will try to say far less. My apologies. BTW, Harold Brooks is the climatology guy at NSSL. We do know much more about the tornado climatology in the U.S. than we have but far less than we need to know. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 16:27:31 +1000 From: David Carroll X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: Tornado's Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI all. Monday night on Channel 7 at 7.30pm. EYE OF THE STORM will be showing the biggest tornado in History. Dont forget to watch. Well this is what program advises. Dave Bathurst NSW. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: FORECAST: First ECL? Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 07:07:56 GMT X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id DAA09524 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Both the EC and GASP are still going for a tongue of cold upper air up the NSW ranges on Wednesday (sub 536 thickness), with the EC rapidly developing an ECL east of Sydney 1004hPa, with a high of 1031 just west of Tassie! GASP shows >5mm rain over all eastern NSW during this time, so, it if all came true it would present an interesting scenario for the NSW tablelands. I've just looked at the latest AVN (00z) and it, too, supports the cold air intrusion, but forms the low off Gabo thus keeping the flow SW over NSW with consequently less rain, and on the west of the ranges. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. Things could also get interesting this evening as the cold pool, currently in central western NSW drifts SE. 10mm or so of rain reported from Coonamble, Wellington, Dubbo and Coonabarabran 9 to 3, with max temps around 10 degrees, and down to 8 at 3pm. Currently just under 6 degrees here at Blackheath with steady light rain. Laurier On Sun, 13 Aug 2000 11:08:45 +1000, Andrew Miskelly wrote: >Hi all, > >The latest Coastal Wind Warning for NSW suggests that we might get our >first ECL (East Coast Low) of the winter during the early part of the >week. > >This winter has been unususal in that - discounting the low in June that >brought wide-spread snow - we haven't had an ECL yet! > >Here's hoping. > >Andrew. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 18:04:55 -0700 From: Lindsay Pearce X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: FORECAST: COLD POOL HEADING SOUTH EAST? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Blackheath: Sunday 6:05pm Sorry to be a pain Laurier, do you have a rough idea when this cold pool heading south east might reach us? Thanks so much. Lindsay P. Laurier Williams wrote: > > Both the EC and GASP are still going for a tongue of cold upper air up > the NSW ranges on Wednesday (sub 536 thickness), with the EC rapidly > developing an ECL east of Sydney 1004hPa, with a high of 1031 just > west of Tassie! GASP shows >5mm rain over all eastern NSW during this > time, so, it if all came true it would present an interesting scenario > for the NSW tablelands. I've just looked at the latest AVN (00z) and > it, too, supports the cold air intrusion, but forms the low off Gabo > thus keeping the flow SW over NSW with consequently less rain, and on > the west of the ranges. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. > > Things could also get interesting this evening as the cold pool, > currently in central western NSW drifts SE. 10mm or so of rain > reported from Coonamble, Wellington, Dubbo and Coonabarabran 9 to 3, > with max temps around 10 degrees, and down to 8 at 3pm. Currently just > under 6 degrees here at Blackheath with steady light rain. > > Laurier > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.109.134.74] From: "Paul Graham" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: FORECAST: First ECL? Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 08:16:12 GMT X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Aug 2000 08:16:12.0712 (UTC) FILETIME=[BE4A5280:01C004FE] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everyone, looks like it will be very favourable for cyclonic development with a definite region of upper divergence between the trough and downstream ridge - nice cyclonic curcature...Also, TAKE A LOOK AT THE WV IMAGES!! Very prominent jetstreak stands out on the 0630Z image... It looks like there may still be a good chance for some severe storms - perhaps tomorrow morning along the SW change - or perhaps further north from Sydney? Very interesting situation developing. - Paul G. >From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: Re: aus-wx: FORECAST: First ECL? >Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 07:07:56 GMT >MIME-Version: 1.0 >Received: from [199.172.62.20] by hotmail.com (3.2) with ESMTP id >MHotMailBB5F966000B7D82197B0C7AC3E14244F0; Sun Aug 13 00:16:54 2000 >Received: (from daemon at localhost)by europe.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) id >DAA09810for aussie-weather-outgoing; Sun, 13 Aug 2000 03:11:56 -0400 (EDT) >Received: from world.std.com (root at world-f.std.com [199.172.62.5])by >europe.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id DAA09523for >; Sun, 13 Aug 2000 03:09:01 -0400 (EDT) >Received: from online.tmx.com.au (online.tmx.com.au [192.150.129.1])by >world.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id DAA12824for >; Sun, 13 Aug 2000 03:07:39 -0400 (EDT) >Received: from netserver.williams.edu.au ([203.35.176.2]) by >online.tmx.com.au (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id RAA04203 for > Sun, 13 Aug 2000 17:07:37 +1000 (EST) >Received: from 1cust90.tnt1.lithgow.au.da.uu.net ([210.84.48.90]) by >netserver.williams.edu.au with SMTP (Microsoft Exchange Internet Mail >Service Version 5.5.2650.21)id QTWZRRVK; Sun, 13 Aug 2000 17:06:46 +1000 >From aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Sun Aug 13 00:20:49 2000 >Message-ID: <3996477a.1589848 at mail.williams.edu.au> >References: <3995F51D.5FF270 at ozemail.com.au> >In-Reply-To: <3995F51D.5FF270 at ozemail.com.au> >X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452 >X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id >DAA09524 >Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >Precedence: list > >Both the EC and GASP are still going for a tongue of cold upper air up >the NSW ranges on Wednesday (sub 536 thickness), with the EC rapidly >developing an ECL east of Sydney 1004hPa, with a high of 1031 just >west of Tassie! GASP shows >5mm rain over all eastern NSW during this >time, so, it if all came true it would present an interesting scenario >for the NSW tablelands. I've just looked at the latest AVN (00z) and >it, too, supports the cold air intrusion, but forms the low off Gabo >thus keeping the flow SW over NSW with consequently less rain, and on >the west of the ranges. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. > >Things could also get interesting this evening as the cold pool, >currently in central western NSW drifts SE. 10mm or so of rain >reported from Coonamble, Wellington, Dubbo and Coonabarabran 9 to 3, >with max temps around 10 degrees, and down to 8 at 3pm. Currently just >under 6 degrees here at Blackheath with steady light rain. > >Laurier > > >On Sun, 13 Aug 2000 11:08:45 +1000, Andrew Miskelly > wrote: > > >Hi all, > > > >The latest Coastal Wind Warning for NSW suggests that we might get our > >first ECL (East Coast Low) of the winter during the early part of the > >week. > > > >This winter has been unususal in that - discounting the low in June that > >brought wide-spread snow - we haven't had an ECL yet! > > > >Here's hoping. > > > >Andrew. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "bussie" To: "weather list" Subject: aus-wx: Conditions here Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 18:22:13 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Has been overcast all day here. Light shower at lunch time. Steady light rain since about 4.30pm. (3mm)
 
Bussy (NE Victoria)
From: "bussie" To: "weather list" Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 18:37:37 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I'm still a learner here. What is the difference between a tornado and a landspout? Aren't they the same thing, and a waterspout is basically a tornado over water? Bussy (NE Victoria) ----- Original Message ----- From: Leslie R. Lemon To: Sent: Saturday, August 12, 2000 1:41 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology > hello all. I have been absent from the list for sometime but obviously am > back. I am getting into this discussion a little late and may cover ground > already covered. Further, when I became aware of this discussion, I sent a > message to Jane to see if she could post it. I have a copy of that, it > follows: > > Phil Bagust wrote: > > > > Just looking at the Sunbury footage made me think. The funnel only > > extends about 1/4 of the way to the ground. Now, it's clear that there's > rotation > > > on the ground and that it's a tornado, but my suspicion is that most of > > the public only associate a tornado with a condensation funnel that goes > all > > > the way to the ground - presumably because that's what they've seen > from > > > images from the US. Could this have led to a significant > underreporting > > of tornadoes over the years? ie events just get reported as freak short > lived > > > storms because there's no condensation funnel on the ground? Would > this > > be common in winter events? Is there any reason why winter tornados > would be > > > less likely to form full condensation funnels? [less moisture > available?] > > This is common and has been emphasized in U.S. spotter training programs > beginning with the 1978 update. In fact, for "land spouts" this is the > norm for the full lifetime of the tornado. In supercellular tornadoes, > this is often the case for the first few minutes of the tornadoes life > cycle and again, at the end of its life cycle. That is not to say that > supercellular tornadoes will never be characterized this way for their full > life time. In fact, in a June 8, 1974 outbreak in Oklahoma, Oklahoma city > experienced an F3 tornado with a lifetime of about 15 minutes and a 20 to > 30 km path length (as I recall) that never was characterized by a funnel > cloud touching the surface. > > This is indeed, a problem with reporting "only" a funnel aloft. For this > reason, it is wise to look very closely for a debris whirl or dust cloud > beneath a funnel aloft and to do a damage survey beneath these locations > after the fact. > > Apart from that discussion I have some other thoughts. > > The following definition of a tornado can be found: > > > *Tornado - A violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground > and extending from the base of a thunderstorm. A condensation funnel does > not need to reach to the ground for a tornado to be present; a debris cloud > beneath a thunderstorm is all that is needed to confirm the presence of a > tornado, even in the total absence of a condensation funnel. > > Here he states " extending from the base of a thunderstorm". In reality > that is not necessary. The land spout, the gustnado, and the flanking line > tornadoes may all be produced by a towering cumulus prior to tstm > formation. However, these are all tornadoes. > > In Chuck Doswell's essay on tornadoes he includes the following: > > "Definition : A vortex extending upward from the surface at least as far as > cloud base (with that cloud base associated with deep moist convection), > that is intense enough at the surface to do damage should be considered a > tornado. > > This is without regard to > > the underlying surface, > the existence/non-existence of a condensation cloud from cloud base to the > surface, > the depth of the moist convective cloud, > the presence/absence of ice in the upper reaches of the convective cloud, > the occurrence/non-occurrence of lightning within the convective cloud, or > even > the intensity of the phenomenon beyond some lower threshold. > My broadened definition is designed to ignore what I consider to be > incidental aspects of the situation. I believe that the physical process > giving rise to an intense vortex is not associated with any of these > coincidental issues and so the labeling of the real vortices that occur > should not depend on them. It also excludes any phenomena not associated > with deep moist convection, such as dust devils or "mountainadoes," and > avoids making artificial and scientifically unjustified distinctions > between "spouts" and tornadoes.[5]" > > Further, he states: "because I do not believe there is any scientific > distinction of consequence between a waterspout and a tornado!" > > For what it is worth, I agree with the above. > > All for now. > > Les > ************************ > Leslie R. Lemon > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist > Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "bussie" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: FORECAST: First ECL? Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 18:51:12 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Don't mean to be rude here as I haven't a map. Where is Blackheath? Bussy (NE Victoria) ----- Original Message ----- From: Laurier Williams To: Sent: Sunday, August 13, 2000 5:07 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: FORECAST: First ECL? > Both the EC and GASP are still going for a tongue of cold upper air up > the NSW ranges on Wednesday (sub 536 thickness), with the EC rapidly > developing an ECL east of Sydney 1004hPa, with a high of 1031 just > west of Tassie! GASP shows >5mm rain over all eastern NSW during this > time, so, it if all came true it would present an interesting scenario > for the NSW tablelands. I've just looked at the latest AVN (00z) and > it, too, supports the cold air intrusion, but forms the low off Gabo > thus keeping the flow SW over NSW with consequently less rain, and on > the west of the ranges. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. > > Things could also get interesting this evening as the cold pool, > currently in central western NSW drifts SE. 10mm or so of rain > reported from Coonamble, Wellington, Dubbo and Coonabarabran 9 to 3, > with max temps around 10 degrees, and down to 8 at 3pm. Currently just > under 6 degrees here at Blackheath with steady light rain. > > Laurier > > > On Sun, 13 Aug 2000 11:08:45 +1000, Andrew Miskelly > wrote: > > >Hi all, > > > >The latest Coastal Wind Warning for NSW suggests that we might get our > >first ECL (East Coast Low) of the winter during the early part of the > >week. > > > >This winter has been unususal in that - discounting the low in June that > >brought wide-spread snow - we haven't had an ECL yet! > > > >Here's hoping. > > > >Andrew. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Dean Sgarbossa" To: Subject: aus-wx: RESEARCH: Tornadogenesis and Research Efforts Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 19:02:17 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.2106.4 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Leslie,
    Thankyou for your understanding. I also believe we should continue the discussions for we continue to learn more and more information by the day. Also, people are able to express their personal ideas and theories to a large audience and collaborate with other people knowledgable in various fields of meteorology.
    Concerning your post explaining how a significantly small number of mesocyclones are responsible for the spawning of tornadoes, I have a question if I may ask? From the research undertaken with the operational use of the Doppler radar (WSR-57, WSR-88D etc.) into the origins of tornadoes, especially the data recorded during Project VORTEX and other field operations undertaken by NSSL and Josh Wurman, have the researchers found any other trace signatures associated to tornado vorticity? By this I mean, has a distinguishable "mark" been observed or found other than the pre-existing "hook-echo" accompanying supercellular storms? The reason why I ask is that the extremely low figures of tornadoes spawned from a supercell came as a shock to me. The figures in question: 20% to as low as 5% of supercellular storms produce tornadoes, is extremely low, so obviously there must be some other mesoscale circulation/atmospheric phenomena occurring that actually has a direct effect on tornado formation. My question is asking whether the folks at NSSL or other independent laboratories or Universities have observed, found or discovered a different process that has yet to be studied, researched and tested. Since the atmospheric processes surrounding thunderstorms is still widely unknown, obviously the knowledge of such phenomena is limited. As we are learning more and more about these storms, the true and direct cause of tornadoes I believe is not going to be unmasked for a number of years, however, we may get extremely close to it and not even realize it. A quote relating to this topic that I seem to follow religiously is the as follows:
 

"If you haven't thought about the existence of
something before it happens, you probably won't
when it does!"

Chuck Doswell (19th AMS Conference on Severe
Local Storms)

 
Yours sincerely,
Dean AL Sgarbossa
 
Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 19:08:05 +1000 From: David Carroll X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: HEAVY RAIN Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 13/08 7.05pm Just Police advise very heavy rainfall in Yeoval, Cumnock area. In Bathurst area, Perthville, Mt Panorama no power. Prime TV transmitter offline. I look towards Mt Panorama from my place very dark. We have had nice rain most of the day. Dave +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz (Unverified) X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 18:40:03 +1200 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: Re: aus-wx: STORM: Re Huntly Tornado - New Zealand Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >>I just found a report on the event from www.stuff.co.nz and it starts off >>like this: >>"A mini-tornado struck Huntly this morning tearing off several roofs, >>downing power lines and uplifting trees." Hehehehe > >I just re-read my email and I realise it could have been taken by some >people the wrong way. (Just in case some of you did) I was laughing at the >M word, not the fact that people's homes have been damaged etc. I apologise >if anyone got that impression!!! > >Regards >James Chambers I gathered that. The early reports were OK both on the radio and television but later that day reports started using the M word in front of the tornado and television later on that night used the M word quite frequently to my annoyance. It is obvious media people don't know what they are talking about. According to them there are only tornadoes and mini-tornadoes. I think that the only difference to them is the fact that if they are not like the twisters that occur in Tornado Alley in the USA, they are smaller ones hence the prefix *mini* in front of the word tornado. John Gaul NZ Thunderstorm Society +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 19:34:37 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: ASWA AGM & Congratulations are in Order for Some! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all! Well - what a fantastic AGM! It really was a great experience being able to meet new people, and catch up with others from last years AGM, and last years TDU99 chase. I'm speaking for everyone here, in thanking everyone who put so much effort into organising the AGM. I know for many, it meant a lot of effort and it cut into their social and recreational past-times - and that is certainly to be commended as it's simply is (for me) such a burst of pride to see the commitment from these people. Who are these people? Well, in particular I'd like to thank the main AGM organisers: Matthew Pearce Daniel Weatherhead James Harris Matthew Smith Even throughout the duration of the AGM, they were running around in the background to ensure that things went to plan and schedule. From MC'ing, organising and overseeing agendas, organising venues and meals for everyone, organising AV equipment and more! They were there somewhere, always willing to lend a hand and organse it. Of course, the list of helpers doesn't stop there! We of course had Jane O'Neill who gave invaluable input into the AGM organisation - not to mention Jimmy Deguara (current, and re-elected ASWA President) - who also gave input, and contributed greatly on the day of the AGM - in particular contacting other members on the day to ensure they remembered to attend! Geoffery Thurtell and John Sweatman were again also contributing, from both assisting in the organisation of the AGM, to Geoff helping out with the raffle ticket prizes, and other fun incentives and prizes on the day - again, something that made the entire day just that little extra fun and special, and assisted in making it run smoothly. Michael Bath did an excellent job in taking down minutes for the entire meeting. Max King also did a wonderful job in organising food and drink for a very quickly decided ASWA BBQ on the Sunday to follow up the AGM as a last social event for everyone to get together and have fun. On zero notice, he didn't hesitate to go out and buy food and drink - and even sacrificed what was a great game of cricket at Bicentenial Park! Of course, then there were the speakers! Michael Scollay (Treasurer's Report), Jimmy Deguara (President's Report), Jane O'Neill (Victorian Report) and not to mention Clyve Herbert's extremely informative and thought-provoking presentation on tornadoes and in particular the Paraparap Tornado! I'm terrified I'm going to leave some people out here (and please forgive me if I do!!!), as there were so many people who helped in some way or form, even to those members who showed up and gave their support to their association! We had five people all up fly into Sydney...from Ballina, Melbourne, Geelong and Brisbane. Certainly great to see the enthusiasm there from those people in particular! I think that's it! I believe there'll be a webpage put up about the AGM, with photos reports and minutes. I know I've already made plans to attend the 2001 AGM once again! It was well worth the trip down to Sydney. Congratulations to all in ASWA!!! It's an organisation to be proud of, that's for sure! As Jimmy summed up at the AGM, look how far we've come in such a small amount of time. It's certainly something to be proud of! -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "bussie" To: "weather list" Subject: aus-wx: Rain Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 19:47:48 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Rain getting heavier here at present (40km west of Albury/Wodonga)
 
Bussy (NE Victoria)
Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 03:03:28 -0700 (PDT) From: Frank Burns Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Fwd: Re: Bureau Of Meteorology's confirmation of receivingyour message.. To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Guys Back on the air! They have given a reason for the delay, but it sounds pretty odd to me. > Frank, > the Radar is still proposed to be free on the web, > the timing is now expected to > be November. The delay has been caused by the Bureau > committment to the Sydney > Olympics and the computing staff are flat out with > this work. > I can only apologise for the delay, but it is a high > priority. Frank Frank --- Rick Houghton wrote: > Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2000 10:33:55 +1000 > From: Rick Houghton > To: frank_burns25 at yahoo.com > Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: Bureau Of Meteorology's > confirmation of receivingyour > message.. > > Frank, > the Radar is still proposed to be free on the web, > the timing is now expected to > be November. The delay has been caused by the Bureau > committment to the Sydney > Olympics and the computing staff are flat out with > this work. > I can only apologise for the delay, but it is a high > priority. > > Regards > Rick Houghton > > REF2000-206-12 > > "Frank Burns (by way of Helen Tseros )" wrote: > > > Webmaster > > > > What happened? > > When is the radar going to be available? > > > > Frank > > > > Note: forwarded message attached. > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Kick off your party with Yahoo! Invites. > > http://invites.yahoo.com/Received: from > [203.76.17.27] by > > web6301.mail.yahoo.com; Mon, 07 Aug 2000 03:08:38 > PDT > > Date: Mon, 7 Aug 2000 03:08:38 -0700 (PDT) > > From: Frank Burns > > Subject: Re: Bureau Of Meteorology's confirmation > of receiving your message.. > > To: webvic at bom.gov.au > > MIME-Version: 1.0 > > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii > > Content-Length: 251 > > > > REF2000-206-12 > > > > Webvic > > > > When will the radar be available? I though it was > > going to be available by August > > > > Frank > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Kick off your party with Yahoo! Invites. > > http://invites.yahoo.com/ > > begin:vcard > n:Smith;Peter > tel;work:03 9669 4984 > x-mozilla-html:FALSE > adr:;;;;;; > version:2.1 > email;internet:Peter.Smith at Bom.gov.au > fn:Peter Smith > end:vcard > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail – Free email you can access from anywhere! http://mail.yahoo.com/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Dean Sgarbossa" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 20:07:27 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.2106.4 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello Bussy,
    How are you? I am glad you asked this question. The phenomenon know as tornadoes, landspouts, waterspouts and dust devils all have one thing in common - they all share a similar property in the form of rotation/vorticity. As you may have observed on the list during the past few days, there is some question into what exactly a tornado is classified as, what exactly a landspout is and again with waterspouts in respect to their formation and origins. Since the true origins of such phenomena is still to be known, some question is related to their classification i.e. should  landspout be included and classified in the tornado classification scheme? As for the current beliefs, the following are the meanings and known formations for these significant events:
 
Tornado: A tornado can be defined as: a violently spinning vortex of air that extends from the base of a storm (cumulonimbus) cloud to the ground. It is almost always associated with severe storm activity and is one of nature's most destructive phenomena, capable of generating winds of up to 483 kph (300 mph) in extreme cases. My personal belief is that a vortex descending from the base of its parent cloud is classified as a tornado if the following two properties are present:
 
*the funnel clearly makes contact with the ground i.e. debris directly beneath funnel.
* the funnel is produced by a cumulonimbus cloud or lesser clouds that flank the thunderhead.
 
As you may have observed from the many past emails to the list, what exactly a tornado is still retains some misconceptions. We know that tornadoes always occur from a thunderstorm, supercellular, multicellular or single cellular. If you have read my last post to the list entitled "RESEARCH: Tornadogenesis and Research Efforts", there is some question whether a tornado does or does not spawn from a mesocyclone, or rather it is spawned from a different mesoscale phenomena yet to be discovered or researched. The truth is, we really don't know how a tornado forms and it will be some time until we are significantly close to deciphering the atmosphere's numerous codes.
 
Landspout: According to the Bureau of Meteorology's Storm Spotter Handbook, the bible for all storm spotters, a landspout is classified as: "The landspout appears to be a slender tornado over land, but is not associated with an organized rotating parent cloud, does not form below a wall cloud and is generally not intense enough to do much damage. The mechanism which forms a landspout is similar to the waterspout: relatively cool air passes over hot ground producing updraughts and cumulus clouds. Random "swirls" can be caught up in an updraught and so tighten up into a funnel which is made visible by raised dust, rather than by condensation of moisture."
Waterspout: again according to the BoM's Storm Spotter Handbook, a waterspout is classified as: "A waterspout looks and appears to be a slender tornado but occurs only over water. They are occasionally seen near the coast in the late summer and autumn. Cool, unstable air masses passing over the warmer waters allow vigorous updraughts to form, which can tighten up into a spinning column. The cool, moist air usually supports a full condensation funnel. Waterspouts can be dangerous for boaters and shoreline locations but are no threat farther inland since they collapse soon after they move ashore." A number of problems arise with the categorizing of waterspouts. Tornadoes can form over sea and be classified as a waterspout and not be noted. Since there is no current distinction between these two, the categorizing of waterspouts and true tornadoes occurring over water has been flawed.
Dust Devils and Willy-Willies: A dust devil is an upward spiralling, dust-filled vortex of air that may vary in height from a few feet to over 1,000 feet (300m). Dust devils occur mainly in desert and semi-arid areas, where the ground is dry and high surface temperatures produce strong updraughts. Dust devils resemble miniature tornadoes, but are generally nowhere near as intense or damaging. Although visually similar, there is no parental cloud to spawn such rotation as this vorticity is created by low level wind shear when winds blow around desert terrain. Dust devils are one of the most mistaken identities for tornadoes. Under no circumstances, no matter the size and destruction caused, should this phenomenon be classified as a tornado. To understand the origins of the dust devil, refer to this highly descriptive and educational page:
 
    I sincerely hope that this helps your endeavour to understand these phenomenon. The best thing to do to gain knowledge in the area of meteorology and severe weather is to read read read and attempt to put your knowledge obtained from books into the field by storm chasing or analysing significant weather events. Some books that I would recommend reading are listed below:
* Weather: William J. Burroughs, Bob Crowder, Ted Robertson...
* The Weather and Climate of Australia and New Zealand: Andrew Sturman & Nigel Tapper.
* The Storm Spotters Handbook: Bureau of Meteorology. Please Note: An online version of this text can be found at the following address: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/handbook/handbook.shtml
* The Wonders of the Weather: Bob Crowder
* In The Shadow of the Tornado: Richard Bedard
* The Science and Wonders of the Atmosphere: Stanley David Gedzelman
 
Then there are the numerous websites dedicated to the learning of meteorology and atmospheric processes:
* Selected Internet Resources for the Beginner Storm Chaser (Excellent site): http://209.109.210.116/beginner/beginner.html
* The Unviersity of Illinois online weather guides (an excellent site): http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/home.rxml
* Online list to training manuels and essays relating to atmospheric processes: http://www.k5kj.net/training.htm
 
There are literally million more but if I wrote them all down, I would be here for a millenium. Make sure to check out the numerous sites created and maintained by our own ASWA members. I sincerely hope I could be of some assistance and help. I wish you all the best with your studies.
 
Yours sincerely,
Dean AL Sgarbossa
 
-----Original Message-----
From: bussie <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: weather list <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sunday, 13 August 2000 18:54
Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology

>I'm still a learner here. What is the difference between a tornado and a
>landspout? Aren't they the same thing, and a waterspout is basically a
>tornado over water?
>
>Bussy (NE Victoria)
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Leslie R. Lemon <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Saturday, August 12, 2000 1:41 AM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology
>
>
>> hello all.  I have been absent from the list for sometime but obviously am
>> back.  I am getting into this discussion a little late and may cover
>ground
>> already covered.  Further, when I became aware of this discussion, I sent
>a
>> message to Jane to see if she could post it.  I have a copy of that, it
>> follows:
>>
>> Phil Bagust wrote:
>>
>> > > Just looking at the Sunbury footage made me think.  The funnel only
>> > extends about 1/4 of the way to the ground.  Now, it's clear that
>there's
>> rotation
>> > > on the ground and that it's a tornado, but my suspicion is that most
>of
>> > the public only associate a tornado with a condensation funnel that goes
>> all
>> > > the way to the ground - presumably because that's what they've seen
>> from
>> > > images from the US.  Could this have led to a significant
>> underreporting
>> > of tornadoes over the years? ie events just get reported as freak short
>> lived
>> > > storms because there's no condensation funnel on the ground?  Would
>> this
>> > be common in winter events?  Is there any reason why winter tornados
>> would be
>> > > less likely to form full condensation funnels? [less moisture
>> available?]
>>
>> This is common and has been emphasized in U.S. spotter training programs
>> beginning with the 1978 update.  In fact, for "land spouts" this is the
>> norm for the full lifetime of the tornado.  In supercellular tornadoes,
>> this is often the case for the first few minutes of the tornadoes life
>> cycle and again, at the end of its life cycle.  That is not to say that
>> supercellular tornadoes will never be characterized this way for their
>full
>> life time.  In fact, in a June 8, 1974 outbreak in Oklahoma, Oklahoma city
>> experienced an F3 tornado with a lifetime of about 15 minutes and a 20 to
>> 30 km path length (as I recall)  that never was characterized by a funnel
>> cloud touching the surface.
>>
>> This is indeed, a problem with reporting "only" a funnel aloft.  For this
>> reason, it is wise to look very closely for a debris whirl or dust cloud
>> beneath a funnel aloft and to do a damage survey beneath these locations
>> after the fact.
>>
>> Apart from that discussion I have some other thoughts.
>>
>> The following definition of a tornado can be found:
>> <http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/branick2d.html#Glossary>
>>
>> *Tornado - A violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground
>> and extending from the base of a thunderstorm. A condensation funnel does
>> not need to reach to the ground for a tornado to be present; a debris
>cloud
>> beneath a thunderstorm is all that is needed to confirm the presence of a
>> tornado, even in the total absence of a condensation funnel.
>>
>> Here he states " extending from the base of a thunderstorm".  In reality
>> that is not necessary.  The land spout, the gustnado, and the flanking
>line
>> tornadoes may all be produced by a towering cumulus prior to tstm
>> formation.  However, these are all tornadoes.
>>
>> In Chuck Doswell's essay on tornadoes he includes the following:
>>
>> "Definition : A vortex extending upward from the surface at least as far
>as
>> cloud base (with that cloud base associated with deep moist convection),
>> that is intense enough at the surface to do damage should be considered a
>> tornado.
>>
>> This is without regard to
>>
>> the underlying surface,
>> the existence/non-existence of a condensation cloud from cloud base to the
>> surface,
>> the depth of the moist convective cloud,
>> the presence/absence of ice in the upper reaches of the convective cloud,
>> the occurrence/non-occurrence of lightning within the convective cloud, or
>> even
>> the intensity of the phenomenon beyond some lower threshold.
>> My broadened definition is designed to ignore what I consider to be
>> incidental aspects of the situation. I believe that the physical process
>> giving rise to an intense vortex is not associated with any of these
>> coincidental issues and so the labeling of the real vortices that occur
>> should not depend on them. It also excludes any phenomena not associated
>> with deep moist convection, such as dust devils or "mountainadoes," and
>> avoids making artificial and scientifically unjustified distinctions
>> between "spouts" and tornadoes.[5]"
>>
>> Further, he states: "because I do not believe there is any scientific
>> distinction of consequence between a waterspout and a tornado!"
>>
>> For what it is worth, I agree with the above.
>>
>> All for now.
>>
>> Les
>> ************************
>> Leslie R. Lemon
>> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
>> Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
>> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>>
>>
>>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>>  message.
>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 20:06:19 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Expert Advice appreciated Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Bill, I gave a brief (~45mins) presentation at the AGM regarding Skew-T's and thnderstorm indicies. I have no idea if it'd be too basic/advanced for your needs though. I can send you the powerpoint presentation if you like. Jane O'Neill expressed interest in wanting to put it up on the MSC site, so perhaps that could be linked from there...not sure, will talk to Jane when she gets back (should be getting onto her plane now...unless she was delayed like everyone else was!!!) Anthony Cornelius Bill Webb wrote: > > Hi List, from Bill in Proserpine, Qld > > Overcast here presently, with the odd shower about from the on-shore moist > trade winds. Temp about 19C at 0830 EAST. > > Part of my job as an adviser in the sugar industry is to provide crop > management advice on irrigation. Obviously the weather, and climate, affect > on-farm management decisions in both the short and longer terms. > > Many other farm management activities (other than irrigation related) are > also subject to the vagaries of the weather. > > In an effort to provide information to growers, I have set up a site where > growers can access weather and climate related information. The URL's are > http://tpgi.com.au/users/billwebb/bsesext/mainurls/weather.htm > and > http://tpgi.com.au/users/billwebb/bsesext/mainurls/climate.htm > > I guess you could call it an attempt to "put the weather to work". > > Most of the links have been sourced from the expert advice of members of > this list - and I thank you all very much for this advice. I cannot begin to > explain how much the list has increased my basic knowledge of all things > weather related. A special thanks to Anthony Cornelius who has supplied me > with very useful specific information. > > Now I seek further advice. Are the links above giving growers the > information they need, and are there any more/better sites which would > assist me in my endeavors? > > Please bear in mind that, along with myself, the cane growers are NOT > weather experts. We do run basic "understanding the weather charts" > workshops in conjunction with BoM forecasters from time to time - but that > is about all. SO, sites crammed with various indices would not help much at > this time. > > Others on the list may also be interested, but optionally please send any > advice to billwebb at tpgi.com.au Thanks in advance. > > Sounds like the ASWA annual meeting went well. Unfortunately I could not > make it. Congratulations to all the re-elected office bearers. You are all > doing a great job, as seen by one who is so far removed from the more > concentrated capital city action. > > I look forward to hearing from you. > Regards, > Bill > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 20:25:08 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Expert Advice appreciated Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just read the title of what this said - I'm no expert!!!!! But I thought I'd reply...sorry for the duplicate email, but I'd hate for people to think I am an expert when I'm simply just an amateur weather enthusiast!!!! Anthony Cornelius wrote: > > Hi Bill, > > I gave a brief (~45mins) presentation at the AGM regarding Skew-T's and > thnderstorm indicies. I have no idea if it'd be too basic/advanced for > your needs though. I can send you the powerpoint presentation if you > like. Jane O'Neill expressed interest in wanting to put it up on the > MSC site, so perhaps that could be linked from there...not sure, will > talk to Jane when she gets back (should be getting onto her plane > now...unless she was delayed like everyone else was!!!) > > Anthony Cornelius -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Pearce" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA AGM & Congratulations are in Order for Some! Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 21:40:03 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all I would like to fully agree with Anthony in that the AGM was a complete success, and a truly great time was had by all that attended. The presentations were very professional, and these were interspersed by some lighter moments too which I think all in attendance will remember for some time :) However, there is just one person that Anthony failed to mention, and that was himself. His presentation on thunderstorm indices and Skew-Ts was an extremely professional and informative talk, and I think everyone there, without fail, learnt something from it. I strongly reccommend all refer to it when it is put up on the internet, because there is a lot of useful info in there. Beside his work at the AGM, he was also a pivotal member of the organisers, who frequently acted to make sure things were staying on track, and ensured that little things were not forgotten, which may otherwise have happened. Congratulations to the incoming Vice President of ASWA! Anyway, I am very much looking forward to the 2001 AGM, and hope to see at least double the number of people there next year! Matt Pearce +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: FORECAST: COLD POOL HEADING SOUTH EAST? Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 12:39:54 GMT X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id IAA08436 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I think it's skirted west of the Blue Mountains, Lindsay; the highest rainfalls 3pm to 9 were Wagga 15 and Tuggeranong and Nullo Mtn 13, with 10 or 11 at Albury, Mudgee and Orange. All the progs move it to be in eastern Vic by tomorrow morning, and weaker. Laurier On Sun, 13 Aug 2000 18:04:55 -0700, Lindsay Pearce wrote: >Blackheath: Sunday 6:05pm > >Sorry to be a pain Laurier, do you have a rough idea when this cold pool >heading south east might reach us? > >Thanks so much. > >Lindsay P. > >Laurier Williams wrote: >> >> Both the EC and GASP are still going for a tongue of cold upper air up >> the NSW ranges on Wednesday (sub 536 thickness), with the EC rapidly >> developing an ECL east of Sydney 1004hPa, with a high of 1031 just >> west of Tassie! GASP shows >5mm rain over all eastern NSW during this >> time, so, it if all came true it would present an interesting scenario >> for the NSW tablelands. I've just looked at the latest AVN (00z) and >> it, too, supports the cold air intrusion, but forms the low off Gabo >> thus keeping the flow SW over NSW with consequently less rain, and on >> the west of the ranges. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. >> >> Things could also get interesting this evening as the cold pool, >> currently in central western NSW drifts SE. 10mm or so of rain >> reported from Coonamble, Wellington, Dubbo and Coonabarabran 9 to 3, >> with max temps around 10 degrees, and down to 8 at 3pm. Currently just >> under 6 degrees here at Blackheath with steady light rain. >> >> Laurier >> >> > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 22:56:06 +1000 From: David Carroll X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Bussie, Your at Rutherglen arent you.. My ex is in Albury. Dave > bussie wrote: > > Rain getting heavier here at present (40km west of Albury/Wodonga) > > Bussy (NE Victoria) +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Aug 2000 09:38:10 -0400 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" Subject: Re: aus-wx: tornado climatology To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id JAA13469 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > I'm still a learner here. What is the difference between a tornado and a > landspout? Aren't they the same thing, and a waterspout is basically a > tornado over water? Because I wrote of these I will define them here. The term "landspout" was coined because of the similarity of this *tornado* with the waterspout. Both have their origins and maturity during the towering cumulus phase of the convection and without a preceding mesocyclone. Both find their demise as the towering cumulus matures into a thunderstorm and leads to the dissipation of the tornadic vortices. This is in contrast to supercellular tornadoes. Yes, they both are tornadoes. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------