From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: AM radio static Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 00:23:53 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have never really used the AM broadcast band to check but with a standard 27Mhz CB setup with a base antenna in a base location, one can generally tell the difference between up to 30km away, up to 100km away and miles away. Miles away can just be a pain in the ass when trying to listen to weak skip. If your UHF CB starts complaining then get the camera out and consider ear plugs if you have sensitive ears. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tony Langdon" To: Sent: Wednesday, August 30, 2000 9:17 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: AM radio static > > Hello Ben! > > 30 Aug 00 18:26, you wrote to All: > > BJ> Can anyone tell me a bit more about the static on the radio? I > BJ> understand that we can listen to lightning discharges as they happen, > BJ> But every time I go out side to check the sky I get nothing! How far > BJ> does the radio pick up this discharge??? > > There are many types of static, but lightning can be readily heard on > frequencies from the AM broadcast band to 10 MHz or higher. If the storm is > close enough, lightning discharges can be heard at VHF or even UHF frequencies. > If you do hear the static at VHF and UHF (i.e. it interferes with the FM radio > or TV), then you'd better go out chasing, the storm's pretty much on top of > you! (you will be within a few km, and be able to see the lightning and hear > thunder :) ). > > You can use your ordinary AM radio to listen into lightning. AM car radios are > ideal, or at home, string up a good antenna. Tune to a spot in between > stations. Normal background noise will be a steady hiss. Lightning appears as > strong crackling noises, the strength depending on the distance of the storm > and the time of day. > > At broadcast frequencies (500 kHz - 1.6 MHz), you will hear storms more readily > during the night, as propagation improves after sunset (the reason being D > layer absorption falls off after sunset, allowing signals to propagate further > at night). > > People with amateur or serious shortwave listening antennas will have no > difficulty receiving static discharges from more than 1000km away on > frequencies between 500 kHz and 10 MHz. In fact, they are likely to interfere > with amateur communications, due to the high energy of the lightning discharges > (I had this problem last week when in Tassie). > > An AM car radio can be an effective storm early warning system, as you will > hear the static, even during daytime, before the storm cells are visible. How > effective you are depends on how good an antenna you erect. If you want to > know more, look up information on building crystal sets (which will discuss > antenna systems desiogned for insensitive passive receivers) or operation on > the lower amateur HF bands, or SWL sites should have good info too. > > My HF mobile stations routinely picks up lightning static from thousands of km > at night, and up to a couple hundred km by day. > > Tony, VK3JED > > .. Don't knock on Death's door. Ring his bell & run away. He HATES that! > -- > |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 > |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au > | > | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 00:33:11 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello folks, my suggestion is that instead of paying for a new AM CB, buy a cheap second hand UHF, cause believe me, if the storm has a lot of electricity, other stations will have buckleys of hearing the transmitting station. UHF CB can be good for up to more than 30km even in normal conditions and is extremely clear. It is also the system which most use now so you will hear the trucks winge when the raods are blocked and find out what is going on. As for all mode, my personal favourite is the Yaesu FT-100 at $2750 but I think it went down in price after GST. If you are going to get commercial gear, get a Philips PRM8010, 8020 or 8030 as they are much easier to reprogram, and the programming lead is easy to build yourself. They are about $300-$400 second hand. All the FM900 series had a problem with (being technical) the VCO which cost about $140 to replace if needed. When the Wyong field day comes up in January, you could probably pick up a good second hand GME Electrophone 275s or a Philips FM620 (not 900 series and CB) for about $25-$50 all excluding antenna kits which are around $30 from Dickie Smiths. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Anthony Cornelius" To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" Sent: Wednesday, August 30, 2000 8:44 AM Subject: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers > Hi all, > > This was touched on briefly last year, but I'd like to bring it up again > as we roll into our storm(chase) season. That is, installing CB radios > into your car! > > They're a fantastic tool, and pretty much an essential item for anyone > who wants to "team up" with other cars and chase. It'll set you back > about $150 (including the unit, antenna, mount bracket for antenna etc) > - but think about the following: > > - The number of phone calls you'll cut down on from not having to > constantly ring other people in your convoy to discuss things. > - You only need one person to receive a radar update, and it can be > broadcasted to everyone very easily. > - You don't need to constantly stop all the time (wasting time and > money) to talk about what you want to do - you can do it just using the > CB! > - You can warn people behind you that you're going to stop soon to pull > over - useful if you don't want people to accidently rear end you -or- > - You can use the CB radio and be spaced out (100m per car), so that > people can ovetake you safely if they wish and you have plenty of notice > of upcoming hazards (dead kanagaroo on the road, going to stop quickly, > speed trap ahead etc) > - It is MUCH more fun! Instead of having 2 people in the conversation, > the entire convoy can join in the conversation! > - It's safer in the sense that you're going to do long driving, and you > can look out for each other (ie, if some one seems to be drifting too > much you can tell them etc). (Could be useful for you Jimmy :-) > > It really is extremely useful! And makes it easier for everyone to > communicate with each other! It's a must for any long distance chasing > - and you'll probably be "left out" on TD2K if you don't have one! > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association > (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > 14 Kinsella St > Belmont, Brisbane > QLD, 4153 > Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm > reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2000 10:19:54 -0400 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" Subject: aus-wx: CLOUD TYPE: Contrails To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id KAA10748 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane wrote: > Evening all, > > Finally got around to developing & scanning the photos I took earlier in > the month of the magnificent contrails which held together most of the > day and then started to shear in the late afternoon. Unfortunately, low > light levels haven't helped the quality of the scans. There is a plane > in the last 2 photos causing the 'discontinuity' in the cloud & this has > thrown a shadow. > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/contrails.htm WOW!! Thank you for sharing this with all of us. These are truly spectacular photos. The colors are so rich and the contrail/cloud is just fascinating. It is amazing that these formations stayed in tact for such a prolonged period. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 01:23:48 +1000 From: David Carroll X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst WX Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 1.20am 31/08 Nice heavy rain and strong winds just lashing Bathurst. Clear day in Bx today, didnt expect this at all. Dave ICQ # 64538477 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 00:45:38 +1000 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au To: Aussie-wx Subject: Re: aus-wx: CLOUD TYPE: Contrails Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com For what it's worth, here was one I took on the 3rd of August, which may have been the same day as Jane's http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Pictures/2000/Aug/03aug01.jpg Admittedly, this is nowhere near as impressive as Jane's, but this one does show, in addition to sunlight reflections in the camera lens, a parhelia (sundog). On Wed, 30 Aug 2000, MSC - Jane ONeill wrote: > Evening all, > > Finally got around to developing & scanning the photos I took earlier in > the month of the magnificent contrails which held together most of the > day and then started to shear in the late afternoon. Unfortunately, low > light levels haven't helped the quality of the scans. There is a plane > in the last 2 photos causing the 'discontinuity' in the cloud & this has > thrown a shadow. > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/contrails.htm > Cheers -- Robert A. Goler E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ Department of Mathematics and Statistics Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 04:34:21 +0930 From: Nathan Thompson X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.73 [en] (Win95; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Interesting day Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I have checked thru model this early morning, and it look like possible interesting day for Friday, 1st day of Spring time for Adelaide. I am sure there are thunderstorms for us from morning to Afternoon for Adelaide. This system from WA look very active and these are on the way here for Friday. But I am unsure yet though, just wait and see until tonight for weather forecast for Friday from BoM and Aviation briefing forecast. Please let me know if you have any comment. Thank you. From Nathan. philmed at health.on.net http://geocities.com/tiggertoo_au/index.html +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 06:37:18 +1000 From: Don White X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: Dry Winter Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sydney's rainfall in Winter which ends at 9 am this morning was 81.6 mm. The only drier Winter in the last 100 years was 1970 when 78.7 mm fell although in 1905 the total was also 81.6 mm. Sydney's driest ever Winters occurred last century with just 43.2 mm in 1895 and 50.3 mm in 1880. don White +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 07:23:03 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting day Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Hi all, > >I have checked thru model this early morning, and it look like possible >interesting day for Friday, 1st day of Spring time for Adelaide. I am >sure there are thunderstorms for us from morning to Afternoon for >Adelaide. This system from WA look very active and these are on the way >here for Friday. But I am unsure yet though, just wait and see until >tonight for weather forecast for Friday from BoM and Aviation briefing >forecast. > >Please let me know if you have any comment. >Thank you. >>From Nathan. Hi Nathan, Check the BoM 4 day runs - Sunday could be interesting too! [how many times have I said that this wet but dreary winter?] Phil +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "Aussie Weather (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: prediction. Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 09:26:50 +1000 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2650.21) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Carl..... despite what the "astrometeorologists" and "fringe sceptics" would have you believe there has been an enormous amount of research on long-range forecasting using non-atmospheric variables - what we tend to call boundary conditions - such as changes in the solar constant, earth orbit, etc etc. Much of this has been dedicated to directly finding relationships, while other techniques such as the search for periodicities in data sets do this via the back door, as the external forcings are largely periodic (which gives them their predictability), and if they are to be useful for prediction, then they should manifest themselves as peaks in the variability of the atmosphere at periods which are some integer multiple/division of the forcing period. My impression of this work is that the results are very mixed, and may be divided between the very long time scales, 1000s of years for which heavily filtered (smoothed) atmospheric data shows strong periodicities/associations, and shorter variations for 10's of years or less for which their is little evidence for useful prediction. To elaborate, on the longer time scales the only avaliable data is paleodata, probably the most interesting (and which I am most failure with) is the polar ice cores. The "best" such core is from Vostok, which appears to be a fairly good indicator of happenings across much of the SH, if not the globe. These data extend back 420K years (420,000) and show very strong periodicities at approximately 100K, 41K, 23K and 19K (years). These peaks match the strong 100, 41, 23 and 19K peaks of the variation of the precession, obliquity and eccentricity of the earth's orbit. These results suggest that if you are interested in forecasting climate on the 10K year time frame the variations of the earth orbit are indeed very useful - and indeed appear to largely explain the 4 major ice ages the earth has experienced in the past 330,000 years, and many other minor variations. On this, a very interesting observation is that the most recent interglacial (warm period) is by far the longest interglacial in 420K years, and indeed paleoclimate data for the past 1000 years strongly suggest the earth cooled by 0.5-0.2C since 1000AD to 1850AD in what "looks" very much like the slow onset of a new ice age. This cooling was then reversed by a warming of about 0.4-0.8C in the past 100 years - of no minor consideration in the IPCC concluding "the balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate". This surface warming is supported by the shorter radiosonde record from ~1965 which shows a strong warming of ~0.5C, a warming which cannot be attributed to urban heat islands.... Anyway getting a bit of track here. On shorter time scales, there is evidence that the 11 year solar cycle influences climate, but that the influence is not sufficient to be useful for climate forecasting. This is probably not surprising given that this much beat-up periodicity only amounts to a 0.1-0.2% variation in solar output (from peak to trough), amounting to about 1W/m**2. This contrasts with local variations approaching 10% on the 10K+ time frame associated with the earth orbital periodicities. By way of comparison, the variations in forcing due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is about approximately 3W/m**2 since 1750 (mostly since 1900), being about 3 times as important for climate as the 11 year cycle, though direct comparison is not totally appropriate. I guess closer to home, I can quote some of my own work in which I performed spectral (ie search for periodicity) analyses of high quality large scale temperature analyses over Australia. The most remarkable finding from this work was the almost complete lack of periodic signals in Australian temperatures... This suggest very strongly to me that on the time scales we are interested (seasons through years), their is little value in long range forecasting using external (periodic) predictors... Cheers, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "MSC - Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 09:29:45 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, I have found over the last 12 months that my Uniden 510XL (advertised range 5kms, best range 125km across water, 35kms if one of you is on a hill, best range on the chase 15kms) which cost me $129 is perfectly adequate for my purposes. I used it continually on the chase last November & after having had my aerial tuned found that my set was one of the best receivers as well as senders (btw, get your aerial tweaked - it can make a HUGE difference). I use it on average of once a fortnight outside the 'chase' to either pick up lightning static (because am radios in my car have a high picthed whine which a number of you know well), to check where speed cameras are or to check road conditions or to alert a truckie to a potential problem. I feel that I spent the right amount of money for what I want it for. I also echo Anthony's sentiments & suggest that if you want to chase with other cars - PLEASE fit a CB - there were a couple of close calls last year, & thinking about last weekend Andrew wouldn't have had to get wet or wonder what the hell I was doing because he could have asked (FIT YOUR CB!!!!!). I vote that you spend as little money as you can to get what will be useful to you. Not saying that you shouldn't spend more but make sure that you can justify the cost in your own budget. Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- Glen O'Riley wrote; Hello folks, my suggestion is that instead of paying for a new AM CB, buy a cheap second hand UHF, cause believe me, if the storm has a lot of electricity, other stations will have buckleys of hearing the transmitting station. UHF CB can be good for up to more than 30km even in normal conditions and is extremely clear. It is also the system which most use now so you will hear the trucks winge when the raods are blocked and find out what is going on. As for all mode, my personal favourite is the Yaesu FT-100 at $2750 but I think it went down in price after GST. If you are going to get commercial gear, get a Philips PRM8010, 8020 or 8030 as they are much easier to reprogram, and the programming lead is easy to build yourself. They are about $300-$400 second hand. All the FM900 series had a problem with (being technical) the VCO which cost about $140 to replace if needed. When the Wyong field day comes up in January, you could probably pick up a good second hand GME Electrophone 275s or a Philips FM620 (not 900 series and CB) for about $25-$50 all excluding antenna kits which are around $30 from Dickie Smiths. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 08:31:34 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, While around lightning active storms, I don't believe there was much trouble with CB communication. I think CB radios are easier and cheaper - and would be the best way for people to "start off" - and then as convoy chases get more organised and have more people (if they ever do), then things such as UHF and Ham would be things to look into in the future. But for the purpose (communication between cars on TDU chases, weekend chases and day chases with other people) - the AM CB radios are perfect, and are generally quite affordable within the average storm chasers budget (assumption :-) From what I understand of it - quite a few people have CB radios already - just need to get the other 'keen chases' to do the same, and we'll finally have a good communication network between cars without having to stop continuously - and of course, everyone on TDU99 will vouch for this - it's much more fun having 4/6/8 however many people in a conversation than two! AC Glen O'Riley wrote: > > Hello folks, my suggestion is that instead of paying for a new AM CB, buy a > cheap second hand UHF, cause believe me, if the storm has a lot of > electricity, other stations will have buckleys of hearing the transmitting > station. UHF CB can be good for up to more than 30km even in normal > conditions and is extremely clear. It is also the system which most use now > so you will hear the trucks winge when the raods are blocked and find out > what is going on. As for all mode, my personal favourite is the Yaesu FT-100 > at $2750 but I think it went down in price after GST. If you are going to get > commercial gear, get a Philips PRM8010, 8020 or 8030 as they are much easier > to reprogram, and the programming lead is easy to build yourself. They are > about $300-$400 second hand. All the FM900 series had a problem with (being > technical) the VCO which cost about $140 to replace if needed. When the > Wyong field day comes up in January, you could probably pick up a good > second hand GME Electrophone 275s or a Philips FM620 (not 900 series and CB) > for about $25-$50 all excluding antenna kits which are around $30 from > Dickie Smiths. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Anthony Cornelius" > To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" > Sent: Wednesday, August 30, 2000 8:44 AM > Subject: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers > > > Hi all, > > > > This was touched on briefly last year, but I'd like to bring it up again > > as we roll into our storm(chase) season. That is, installing CB radios > > into your car! > > > > They're a fantastic tool, and pretty much an essential item for anyone > > who wants to "team up" with other cars and chase. It'll set you back > > about $150 (including the unit, antenna, mount bracket for antenna etc) > > - but think about the following: > > > > - The number of phone calls you'll cut down on from not having to > > constantly ring other people in your convoy to discuss things. > > - You only need one person to receive a radar update, and it can be > > broadcasted to everyone very easily. > > - You don't need to constantly stop all the time (wasting time and > > money) to talk about what you want to do - you can do it just using the > > CB! > > - You can warn people behind you that you're going to stop soon to pull > > over - useful if you don't want people to accidently rear end you -or- > > - You can use the CB radio and be spaced out (100m per car), so that > > people can ovetake you safely if they wish and you have plenty of notice > > of upcoming hazards (dead kanagaroo on the road, going to stop quickly, > > speed trap ahead etc) > > - It is MUCH more fun! Instead of having 2 people in the conversation, > > the entire convoy can join in the conversation! > > - It's safer in the sense that you're going to do long driving, and you > > can look out for each other (ie, if some one seems to be drifting too > > much you can tell them etc). (Could be useful for you Jimmy :-) > > > > It really is extremely useful! And makes it easier for everyone to > > communicate with each other! It's a must for any long distance chasing > > - and you'll probably be "left out" on TD2K if you don't have one! > > -- > > Anthony Cornelius > > Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association > > (ASWA) > > (07) 3390 4812 > > 14 Kinsella St > > Belmont, Brisbane > > QLD, 4153 > > Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm > > reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Yole" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 09:12:46 +1000 Organization: ASWA Victoria X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey all, I have to agree with Jane, Anthony and everyone else. The use of CB's on TDU99 lat year was well worth the cost of the units. A few times, there were conversations going on, where people in the other cars could listen in and learn more, but also it helped in working out where to head next, where everyone was able to have some imput (except those without a CB), as well as telling someone that we had travelled a certain distance, only to have the guy told that we were from ASWA and to hear nothing back from them (I think that was at Albury from memory...Clyve?) All up, the communication last year was excellent for what we needed. Paul. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "David Findlay" To: Subject: aus-wx: Big Idea Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 09:58:54 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have been thinking about this for a while and also talking to a few people, and the dicussion of HAM radio for storm chasing has reminded me of it. What would be good is if amateur radio people and storm chasers and watchers got together and build an amateur radio packet data network. This would allow sharing of weather data from lightning trackers, auto weather stations and SMS observations. All that would be required would be a computer, radio, TNC and amateur liscence. I have been thinking of building a lightning tracker in my backyard in SEQLD. It would be linked to such a network. A network could be built with 56kb radio links. A repeater would sit in a central location, for Brisbane that could be Mt Cootha. Every user would have a directional antenna point at it, like a TV antenna. To send a packet to another station, you would broadcast to the repeater, which would then send it out on a second frequency which every other station would be listening to. A second repeater could be operated at Toowoomba, with a two way 56kb link between them. Router software would be operated at both stations to determine which traffic has to go where. To join the network, a requirement could be set that you would have to have some data to share, whether from a automatic weather station or lightning tracker. Software could then be used to process this data and combine it into something of use to chasers and watchers. Mobile access would also be possible. It would have to run of 70cm band. I have some designs for the circuits for all this stuff. Over time such a datasharing network could grow to expand to the whole east coast of Australia, if everyone could cooperate. The network would allow APRS(allowing others to see where you are in you car), SMS(short messages), and email as well as some html and graphic content(webcams). Any ideas? Would ASWA help? We would probably have to get some other HAM radio association invovled too so we could use their repeaters. In such a way we could build our own mobile internet for datasharing. Ideas? and I stupid to suggest this? Please don't send email bombs or flames! David Findlay +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: s348771 at student.uq.edu.au (Unverified) X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.5 (32) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 10:31:27 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jason Smith Subject: aus-wx: Chasing in Vic Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I'll be down there on Tues for 2 or 3 weeks, around the Horsham area. So if anybody want to go chasing then, I'd be keen to hook up. I'll actually be rockclimbing at either Mt Arapilies or The Grampians. Just reply personally Pommy +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410) Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 10:29:03 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Big Idea From: "twc at theweather.com.au" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The Weather Co. is in the process if setting up an SMS service which would include warnings. _____________________________________________________ Mark Hardy. The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060 Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536. Mobile 0414 642 739 http://www.theweather.com.au _____________________________________________________ ---------- >From: "David Findlay" >To: >Subject: aus-wx: Big Idea >Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 9:58 > > I have been thinking about this for a while and also talking to a few > people, and the dicussion of HAM radio for storm chasing has reminded me of > it. What would be good is if amateur radio people and storm chasers and > watchers got together and build an amateur radio packet data network. This > would allow sharing of weather data from lightning trackers, auto weather > stations and SMS observations. All that would be required would be a > computer, radio, TNC and amateur liscence. > > I have been thinking of building a lightning tracker in my backyard in > SEQLD. It would be linked to such a network. A network could be built with > 56kb radio links. A repeater would sit in a central location, for Brisbane > that could be Mt Cootha. Every user would have a directional antenna point > at it, like a TV antenna. To send a packet to another station, you would > broadcast to the repeater, which would then send it out on a second > frequency which every other station would be listening to. A second repeater > could be operated at Toowoomba, with a two way 56kb link between them. > Router software would be operated at both stations to determine which > traffic has to go where. > > To join the network, a requirement could be set that you would have to have > some data to share, whether from a automatic weather station or lightning > tracker. Software could then be used to process this data and combine it > into something of use to chasers and watchers. Mobile access would also be > possible. It would have to run of 70cm band. I have some designs for the > circuits for all this stuff. Over time such a datasharing network could grow > to expand to the whole east coast of Australia, if everyone could cooperate. > > The network would allow APRS(allowing others to see where you are in you > car), SMS(short messages), and email as well as some html and graphic > content(webcams). Any ideas? Would ASWA help? We would probably have to get > some other HAM radio association invovled too so we could use their > repeaters. In such a way we could build our own mobile internet for > datasharing. Ideas? and I stupid to suggest this? Please don't send email > bombs or flames! > > David Findlay > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "bussie" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 13:31:28 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From what I've heard, a lot of the imported vehicles that still have the AM band on their radios are not very well tested overseas as we are one of the few countries still using AM. They arrive here and don't work real well, i.e., engine noise interference etc. Not sure if that is correct or not but just what I heard. Bussy ----- Original Message ----- From: "MSC - Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Thursday, August 31, 2000 9:29 AM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers > Morning all, > > I have found over the last 12 months that my Uniden 510XL (advertised range > 5kms, best range 125km across water, 35kms if one of you is on a hill, best > range on the chase 15kms) which cost me $129 is perfectly adequate for my > purposes. I used it continually on the chase last November & after having > had my aerial tuned found that my set was one of the best receivers as well > as senders (btw, get your aerial tweaked - it can make a HUGE difference). > I use it on average of once a fortnight outside the 'chase' to either pick > up lightning static (because am radios in my car have a high picthed whine > which a number of you know well), to check where speed cameras are or to > check road conditions or to alert a truckie to a potential problem. > > I feel that I spent the right amount of money for what I want it for. I > also echo Anthony's sentiments & suggest that if you want to chase with > other cars - PLEASE fit a CB - there were a couple of close calls last > year, & thinking about last weekend Andrew wouldn't have had to get wet or > wonder what the hell I was doing because he could have asked (FIT YOUR > CB!!!!!). > > I vote that you spend as little money as you can to get what will be useful > to you. Not saying that you shouldn't spend more but make sure that you can > justify the cost in your own budget. > > Jane > --------------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > --------------------------------------- > > Glen O'Riley wrote; > > > Hello folks, my suggestion is that instead of paying for a new AM CB, buy a > cheap second hand UHF, cause believe me, if the storm has a lot of > electricity, other stations will have buckleys of hearing the transmitting > station. UHF CB can be good for up to more than 30km even in normal > conditions and is extremely clear. It is also the system which most use now > so you will hear the trucks winge when the raods are blocked and find out > what is going on. As for all mode, my personal favourite is the Yaesu FT-100 > at $2750 but I think it went down in price after GST. If you are going to get > commercial gear, get a Philips PRM8010, 8020 or 8030 as they are much easier > to reprogram, and the programming lead is easy to build yourself. They are > about $300-$400 second hand. All the FM900 series had a problem with (being > technical) the VCO which cost about $140 to replace if needed. When the > Wyong field day comes up in January, you could probably pick up a good > second hand GME Electrophone 275s or a Philips FM620 (not 900 series and CB) > for about $25-$50 all excluding antenna kits which are around $30 from > Dickie Smiths. > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 13:40:35 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com OK, so I take it that everyone is happy with the static discharges, that is fine and can be helpfull. As for amaeture, I don't really think it is worth going that far, if needed the group could probably VERY cheaply obtain its own piece of spectrum for ASWA members only. But more expensive (still not as expensive as amateur) for the equipment. If folks in the Sydney area want their antenna tuned, I have the necessary equipment (an SWR metre and a pair of side cutters) to tune the old 27Mhz antennas to whatever whereever presuming that it has not been previously tuned and as for the comment made about the Uniden set, yes it does make a really big difference! But also I suggest that if you go out and pruchase a new set, if you can find one, get either a GME TX2000 which is AM only but has the added benifit of a front fire speaker instead of having to stick ones head on the floor to hear it or if you want side band, consider either GME or any other comany than Uniden. If the set is older than five years then consider Uniden. Uniden have EXTREMELY poor sets coming off the production line (I have personally been bitten twice with new radios and never again) and have extremely poor customer service. I recently purchased a new $400 UHF off them, it blew up, came back in worse condition then it went. If you can get one of the older PC122 side bands, not the newer 122XLs that are being sold, if it is under $150, I very strongly urge you to consider it if it works as they are good, I am never parting with mine, but they can be worth up to $200 as they are popular and a wanted item as they were made before all Uniden manufacture plants moved to the Phillipines. The really old 18channel sets are also very good and can be EASILY modified to do nearly anything. But down in Sydney they are probably worth a fortune. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Paul Yole" To: Sent: Thursday, August 31, 2000 9:12 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers > Hey all, > > I have to agree with Jane, Anthony and everyone else. The use of CB's on > TDU99 lat year was well worth the cost of the units. A few times, there were > conversations going on, where people in the other cars could listen in and > learn more, but also it helped in working out where to head next, where > everyone was able to have some imput (except those without a CB), as well as > telling someone that we had travelled a certain distance, only to have the > guy told that we were from ASWA and to hear nothing back from them (I think > that was at Albury from memory...Clyve?) > > All up, the communication last year was excellent for what we needed. > > Paul. > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "clyve herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: prediction. Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 13:45:48 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi David, A very interesting explanation with lots of useful tan discussion, i have always been intrigued by the time phases in respect to the disappearance of the ice cover from Antarctica and the presence of vegetation at such high latitudes, especially when one considers the light problem and what vegetation did during the prolonged dark winter. The melting of the polar ice would have required a considerable rise in the mean Earth temperature from what is the present average global mean. I found a very interesting read in a book called The Greening of Gondwana by Mary E. White which went into some detail of climatical conditions for the Australian and southern hemisphere regions well worth a read. regards Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: David Jones To: Aussie Weather (E-mail) Sent: Thursday, August 31, 2000 9:26 AM Subject: aus-wx: prediction. > > Carl..... despite what the "astrometeorologists" and "fringe sceptics" would > have you believe there has been an enormous amount of research on long-range > forecasting using non-atmospheric variables - what we tend to call boundary > conditions - such as changes in the solar constant, earth orbit, etc etc. > Much of this has been dedicated to directly finding relationships, while > other techniques such as the search for periodicities in data sets do this > via the back door, as the external forcings are largely periodic (which > gives them their predictability), and if they are to be useful for > prediction, then they should manifest themselves as peaks in the variability > of the atmosphere at periods which are some integer multiple/division of the > forcing period. My impression of this work is that the results are very > mixed, and may be divided between the very long time scales, 1000s of years > for which heavily filtered (smoothed) atmospheric data shows strong > periodicities/associations, and shorter variations for 10's of years or less > for which their is little evidence for useful prediction. > > To elaborate, on the longer time scales the only avaliable data is > paleodata, probably the most interesting (and which I am most failure with) > is the polar ice cores. The "best" such core is from Vostok, which appears > to be a fairly good indicator of happenings across much of the SH, if not > the globe. These data extend back 420K years (420,000) and show very strong > periodicities at approximately 100K, 41K, 23K and 19K (years). These peaks > match the strong 100, 41, 23 and 19K peaks of the variation of the > precession, obliquity and eccentricity of the earth's orbit. These results > suggest that if you are interested in forecasting climate on the 10K year > time frame the variations of the earth orbit are indeed very useful - and > indeed appear to largely explain the 4 major ice ages the earth has > experienced in the past 330,000 years, and many other minor variations. On > this, a very interesting observation is that the most recent interglacial > (warm period) is by far the longest interglacial in 420K years, and indeed > paleoclimate data for the past 1000 years strongly suggest the earth cooled > by 0.5-0.2C since 1000AD to 1850AD in what "looks" very much like the slow > onset of a new ice age. This cooling was then reversed by a warming of about > 0.4-0.8C in the past 100 years - of no minor consideration in the IPCC > concluding "the balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence > on global climate". This surface warming is supported by the shorter > radiosonde record from ~1965 which shows a strong warming of ~0.5C, a > warming which cannot be attributed to urban heat islands.... Anyway getting > a bit of track here. > > On shorter time scales, there is evidence that the 11 year solar cycle > influences climate, but that the influence is not sufficient to be useful > for climate forecasting. This is probably not surprising given that this > much beat-up periodicity only amounts to a 0.1-0.2% variation in solar > output (from peak to trough), amounting to about 1W/m**2. This contrasts > with local variations approaching 10% on the 10K+ time frame associated with > the earth orbital periodicities. By way of comparison, the variations in > forcing due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is about > approximately 3W/m**2 since 1750 (mostly since 1900), being about 3 times as > important for climate as the 11 year cycle, though direct comparison is not > totally appropriate. I guess closer to home, I can quote some of my own work > in which I performed spectral (ie search for periodicity) analyses of high > quality large scale temperature analyses over Australia. The most remarkable > finding from this work was the almost complete lack of periodic signals in > Australian temperatures... This suggest very strongly to me that on the time > scales we are interested (seasons through years), their is little value in > long range forecasting using external (periodic) predictors... > > Cheers, > > David > > > > Dr David Jones > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 13:23:46 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Re: prediction Cc: D.Jones at bom.gov.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi David. Thanks for your reply on this subject, as it is an area that certainly deserves attention, given the fact that we are all to a greater or lesser degree dependant on the weather, and if we can manage to find long-range weather forecasting techniques that actually work, it would benefit all. Your comments regarding the longer term cycles of the climate are quite interesting, and I have taken note of your comments regarding research into the shorter term cycles. Do you mind if I post your reply on the astrometeorology list? I get the feeling that input from those in the more conventional meteorology/climatology professions is not common there. I still feel that there is much more to be looked at in this area, as the various interactions between the Planets and the Sun are incredibly complex when all the variables are taken into account, so may not adequately reveal themselves among simple comparisions relying on a few key factors, and the effects of these and the Solar-Lunar tidal effects on the atmosphere may well be to a greater or lesser degree swamped by more localised variables, making them more likely to be potentially useful as adjustments in the form of trends to be applied with more more conventional methods. Of course, in the final analysis, it is the usefulness or otherwise of various techniques of prediction that may be applied when compared to records of actual conditions at a sufficiently large sample of sites that will determine whether there is anything really worth looking into here, which is why I chose to give the astrometeorological group an opportunity to present forecasts for a specific time and place (i.e. the Olympics), being fully aware that one test does not make a conclusive experiment. Interestingly, I have only the one forecast submitted so far, which is a Solar-Lunar cycle based prediction method according to the authors website, which could be interpreted as a reluctance among astrometeorologists to have their methods tested in a real world situation - of course, there is still some time available for others to submit their forecasts and still have a meaningful gap between the forecast and the event. Regards, Carl. >X-From_: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Thu Aug 31 08:39:56 2000 >From: David Jones >To: "Aussie Weather (E-mail)" >Subject: aus-wx: prediction. >Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 09:26:50 +1000 >MIME-Version: 1.0 >Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >Precedence: list >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > >Carl..... despite what the "astrometeorologists" and "fringe sceptics" would >have you believe there has been an enormous amount of research on long-range >forecasting using non-atmospheric variables - what we tend to call boundary >conditions - such as changes in the solar constant, earth orbit, etc etc. >Much of this has been dedicated to directly finding relationships, while >other techniques such as the search for periodicities in data sets do this >via the back door, as the external forcings are largely periodic (which >gives them their predictability), and if they are to be useful for >prediction, then they should manifest themselves as peaks in the variability >of the atmosphere at periods which are some integer multiple/division of the >forcing period. My impression of this work is that the results are very >mixed, and may be divided between the very long time scales, 1000s of years >for which heavily filtered (smoothed) atmospheric data shows strong >periodicities/associations, and shorter variations for 10's of years or less >for which their is little evidence for useful prediction. > >To elaborate, on the longer time scales the only avaliable data is >paleodata, probably the most interesting (and which I am most failure with) >is the polar ice cores. The "best" such core is from Vostok, which appears >to be a fairly good indicator of happenings across much of the SH, if not >the globe. These data extend back 420K years (420,000) and show very strong >periodicities at approximately 100K, 41K, 23K and 19K (years). These peaks >match the strong 100, 41, 23 and 19K peaks of the variation of the >precession, obliquity and eccentricity of the earth's orbit. These results >suggest that if you are interested in forecasting climate on the 10K year >time frame the variations of the earth orbit are indeed very useful - and >indeed appear to largely explain the 4 major ice ages the earth has >experienced in the past 330,000 years, and many other minor variations. On >this, a very interesting observation is that the most recent interglacial >(warm period) is by far the longest interglacial in 420K years, and indeed >paleoclimate data for the past 1000 years strongly suggest the earth cooled >by 0.5-0.2C since 1000AD to 1850AD in what "looks" very much like the slow >onset of a new ice age. This cooling was then reversed by a warming of about >0.4-0.8C in the past 100 years - of no minor consideration in the IPCC >concluding "the balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence >on global climate". This surface warming is supported by the shorter >radiosonde record from ~1965 which shows a strong warming of ~0.5C, a >warming which cannot be attributed to urban heat islands.... Anyway getting >a bit of track here. > >On shorter time scales, there is evidence that the 11 year solar cycle >influences climate, but that the influence is not sufficient to be useful >for climate forecasting. This is probably not surprising given that this >much beat-up periodicity only amounts to a 0.1-0.2% variation in solar >output (from peak to trough), amounting to about 1W/m**2. This contrasts >with local variations approaching 10% on the 10K+ time frame associated with >the earth orbital periodicities. By way of comparison, the variations in >forcing due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is about >approximately 3W/m**2 since 1750 (mostly since 1900), being about 3 times as >important for climate as the 11 year cycle, though direct comparison is not >totally appropriate. I guess closer to home, I can quote some of my own work >in which I performed spectral (ie search for periodicity) analyses of high >quality large scale temperature analyses over Australia. The most remarkable >finding from this work was the almost complete lack of periodic signals in >Australian temperatures... This suggest very strongly to me that on the time >scales we are interested (seasons through years), their is little value in >long range forecasting using external (periodic) predictors... > >Cheers, > >David > > > >Dr David Jones > >Climate Analysis Section >National Climate Centre >Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 >GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 >Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 >email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Glen O'Riley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 15:14:18 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com possible, actually talking of imported radios, on the Japanese imported radios, because their broadcast band is in one of our gov. bands, if you pull the converter from the back, it is possible to recieve police transmissions if they have a VHF transmitter nearby. ----- Original Message ----- From: "bussie" To: Sent: Thursday, August 31, 2000 1:31 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers > From what I've heard, a lot of the imported vehicles that still have the AM > band on their radios are not very well tested overseas as we are one of the > few countries still using AM. They arrive here and don't work real well, > i.e., engine noise interference etc. Not sure if that is correct or not but > just what I heard. > > Bussy > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "MSC - Jane ONeill" > To: > Sent: Thursday, August 31, 2000 9:29 AM > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Recommendation for Storm Chasers > > > > Morning all, > > > > I have found over the last 12 months that my Uniden 510XL (advertised > range > > 5kms, best range 125km across water, 35kms if one of you is on a hill, > best > > range on the chase 15kms) which cost me $129 is perfectly adequate for my > > purposes. I used it continually on the chase last November & after having > > had my aerial tuned found that my set was one of the best receivers as > well > > as senders (btw, get your aerial tweaked - it can make a HUGE difference). > > I use it on average of once a fortnight outside the 'chase' to either pick > > up lightning static (because am radios in my car have a high picthed whine > > which a number of you know well), to check where speed cameras are or to > > check road conditions or to alert a truckie to a potential problem. > > > > I feel that I spent the right amount of money for what I want it for. I > > also echo Anthony's sentiments & suggest that if you want to chase with > > other cars - PLEASE fit a CB - there were a couple of close calls last > > year, & thinking about last weekend Andrew wouldn't have had to get wet or > > wonder what the hell I was doing because he could have asked (FIT YOUR > > CB!!!!!). > > > > I vote that you spend as little money as you can to get what will be > useful > > to you. Not saying that you shouldn't spend more but make sure that you > can > > justify the cost in your own budget. > > > > Jane > > --------------------------------------- > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > --------------------------------------- > > > > Glen O'Riley wrote; > > > > > > Hello folks, my suggestion is that instead of paying for a new AM CB, buy > a > > cheap second hand UHF, cause believe me, if the storm has a lot of > > electricity, other stations will have buckleys of hearing the transmitting > > station. UHF CB can be good for up to more than 30km even in normal > > conditions and is extremely clear. It is also the system which most use > now > > so you will hear the trucks winge when the raods are blocked and find out > > what is going on. As for all mode, my personal favourite is the Yaesu > FT-100 > > at $2750 but I think it went down in price after GST. If you are going to > get > > commercial gear, get a Philips PRM8010, 8020 or 8030 as they are much > easier > > to reprogram, and the programming lead is easy to build yourself. They are > > about $300-$400 second hand. All the FM900 series had a problem with > (being > > technical) the VCO which cost about $140 to replace if needed. When the > > Wyong field day comes up in January, you could probably pick up a good > > second hand GME Electrophone 275s or a Philips FM620 (not 900 series and > CB) > > for about $25-$50 all excluding antenna kits which are around $30 from > > Dickie Smiths. > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 17:21:32 +1000 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au To: Aussie-wx Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Educational weather site Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all My supervisor just showed me this website from UCAR which has a whole lot of links to educational stuff. I actually think it's designed for forecasters but there may be some juicy bits and pieces here and there. http://www.comet.ucar.edu/modules/index.htm There are many links there, and I've only seen a couple. The one on Mesoscale Convective Systems is interesting, as it's squall lines that I'm currently looking at for my research. http://meted.ucar.edu/convectn/mcs/mcsweb/mcsframe.htm Cheers -- Robert A. Goler E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ Department of Mathematics and Statistics Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dry Winter & Bushfires Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 20:04:27 +1000 Organization: X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I must admit that the bushfire season may sneak up on us with a nasty shock. The Illawarra had far less rain in March than Sydney, Sydney seemed to be the southern cut off point for a lot of coastal rainfalls from February - May. There was a bushfire today at Mt Kembla, only small but clearly fast moving. Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: Don White To: Aussie Weather Sent: Thursday, 31 August 2000 6:37 Subject: aus-wx: Dry Winter > Sydney's rainfall in Winter which ends at 9 am this morning was 81.6 mm. > The only drier Winter in the last 100 years was 1970 when 78.7 mm fell > although in 1905 the total was also 81.6 mm. > Sydney's driest ever Winters occurred last century with just 43.2 mm in > 1895 and 50.3 mm in 1880. > > don White > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.134.54.234] From: "Ben Jerrems" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: AM radio static Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 19:13:27 EST X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Aug 2000 09:13:27.0910 (UTC) FILETIME=[B9437060:01C0132B] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thank-you all for the info! Ben-MSC ---------------------------------- >From: "Michael Thompson" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: AM radio static >Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2000 21:48:33 +1000 > >Depends on a number of factors. Your radio, line of sight and time of day. > >I easily get static from storms 300km out to sea if I am on the coast, but >normally 150-200km is the range for my radio. > >Michael > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Ben Jerrems >To: >Sent: Thursday, 31 August 2000 9:26 >Subject: aus-wx: Re: AM radio static > > > > Hi all? > > Can anyone tell me a bit more about the static on the radio? I > > understand that we can listen to lightning discharges as they happen, >But > > every time I go out side to check the sky I get nothing! How far does >the > > radio pick up this discharge??? > > > > Ben-MSC > > > > > > >_________________________________________________________________________ > > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at >http://www.hotmail.com. > > > > Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at > > http://profiles.msn.com. > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com. Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at http://profiles.msn.com. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.166.12.203] From: "Kevin Phyland" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: prediction Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 19:54:13 EST X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Aug 2000 09:54:13.0540 (UTC) FILETIME=[6AF8F640:01C01331] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi every1, The recent discussion re astrometeorology etc... set me thinking about a number of things... [1] The orbital dynamics of the Earth viz. thousand-year+ cycles are well documented via paleoclimatology and are pretty much undisputed [2] The shorter-scale influences seem to be well and truly a mystery. The cooling of the globe prior to the mid-18th century is well-documented historically but to say that we were headed towards a new ice age seems to be drawing a long bow. Within the time-scales that accurate wx data have been recorded it seems hubris to suspect that variations such as a "sudden" warming on century scales is not within the "normal" fluctuations of climatic variation! We simply have too little reliable data to confirm such a suggestion. [3] The recent warming of the Earth apparently due to human influence is also possibly confusing one of many causes with one of many effects! The upper atmosphere (admittedly using data much more recently) seems to have cooled in the last forty years. I suppose if you couple the two effects you could draw a conclusion of steeper lapse rates hence more stormy or variable weather...but to say that human influence alone has caused global warming is much like the debate over cloud-seeding. If I seed a cloud and it rains...did I cause it? Maybe it would have happened anyway. (The CSIRO I believe stopped cloud-seeding in the 70's because they couldn't statistically determine an increase since the "right" clouds were SO right they may have rained anyway...I think they may also have been worried about lawsuits as well...think about it :)) ) [4] There is considerable evidence that CO2 levels in the atmosphere have dramatically increased (on decade scales no less) many times during Earth's history - most interesting theory being sudden changes in ocean currents releasing vast quantities of CO2 from the ocean! (I'm reminded of that terrible story about a village in Africa parked next to a "quiet" lake - that overnight splurged CO2 quietly over the entire region suffocating the entire population.) That's my $2 worth (it's far and away my longest mail to the list ) but I'd like to state a couple of points: I'm playing scientific Devil's advocate here...I'm NOT saying that human influences have not/will not affect Earth's climate...I'm saying that from a factual/scientific standpoint the jury is out. Cheers, Kevin from Wycheproof. _________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com. Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at http://profiles.msn.com. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "bussie" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dry Winter & Bushfires Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 22:13:12 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Have some of our rain! 94mm this month alone. Wet as........ Bussy (NE Victoria) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Michael Thompson" To: Sent: Thursday, August 31, 2000 8:04 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dry Winter & Bushfires > I must admit that the bushfire season may sneak up on us with a nasty shock. > The Illawarra had far less rain in March than Sydney, Sydney seemed to be > the southern cut off point for a lot of coastal rainfalls from February - > May. > > There was a bushfire today at Mt Kembla, only small but clearly fast > moving. > > Michael > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Don White > To: Aussie Weather > Sent: Thursday, 31 August 2000 6:37 > Subject: aus-wx: Dry Winter > > > > Sydney's rainfall in Winter which ends at 9 am this morning was 81.6 mm. > > The only drier Winter in the last 100 years was 1970 when 78.7 mm fell > > although in 1905 the total was also 81.6 mm. > > Sydney's driest ever Winters occurred last century with just 43.2 mm in > > 1895 and 50.3 mm in 1880. > > > > don White > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Patrick Tobin" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dry Winter Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2000 21:16:53 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.5 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks Don, An absence of ECLs among other reasons? Patrick -----Original Message----- From: Don White To: Aussie Weather Date: Thursday, 31 August 2000 6:46 Subject: aus-wx: Dry Winter >Sydney's rainfall in Winter which ends at 9 am this morning was 81.6 mm. >The only drier Winter in the last 100 years was 1970 when 78.7 mm fell >although in 1905 the total was also 81.6 mm. >Sydney's driest ever Winters occurred last century with just 43.2 mm in >1895 and 50.3 mm in 1880. > >don White > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------