Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 11:01:39 -0400 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Notes on CAPE & LI To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id LAA24315 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane wrote: > I have to agree - the discussions & explanations that come across the list are > fantastic for adding pieces to the jigsaw.....this is a great analogy > Michael!!!! - there are a lot of pieces of blue sky & very few points of > reference to begin with, so it's discussions like these which teach all of us( > even those members of the list who know a heck of a lot more than the rest) > something that we didn't know - even Les Lemon has learnt from us as we have > from him. > > Another of the great things about these discussions is that it teaches us all > to be flexible - it is far too easy to fall into a habit of looking at > something from only one perspective, without considering the other 'angles' > ..please keep this sort of discussion going, they are in no way boring - > exactly the opposite in fact!!! Yes, Jane, I have and continue to learn from this list, from the people who contribute, such as yourself, Harald, and others. Thank you for the privilege that it is to belong to such a list. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Phone: 816-373-3533 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Karratha Weather" To: Subject: aus-wx: Very hot in the NW 40C! - Extreme Fire Danger Today :\ Date: Sat, 7 Oct 2000 02:12:49 +0800 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all
 
Well the heat has definitely arrived here in the North West this week!
Sunday Oct 1st: 36.3C - Early seabreeze with the max at 11am
Monday: 34C - Early Seabreeze
Tuesday: 40.2C - very early max at 11:20am - First 40C for the spring  
Wednesday: 33.8C - Early Seabreeze kept the temp down
Thursday: 29.2C - coolest day of the week but extremely humid! with the RH staying around 70-80% for most of the day. At one stage at the Airport it was 30C / 25C DP
Friday 40.3C - practically no seabreeze what so ever with the temperature still hovering around 36C at 6:30pm (After sunset!) the temperature only dropped to below 30C at 11:20pm when it was 29.9C
 
Today is set to be another sizzler with 40C forecast and an Extreme Fire Danger for the Pilbara district due to the very hot conditions and strong dry S/SE'ly  winds.
 
KARRATHA:
Fine. Hot. Fresh S/SE winds, gusty at times in the morning, late afternoon
seabreeze.
    Temperatures  Minimum: 19    Maximum: 40
     UV Index:    9 [VERY HIGH] 
PILBARA:
Fine. Very hot near the coast. S/SE winds, fresh and gusty in the morning.
Afternoon coastal sea breezes.

Outlook for Sunday   : Hot.
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

FIRE WEATHER WARNING
Issued at 8:00pm WST on Friday, 6th of October 2000
FOR THE PILBARA DISTRICT

Hot, dry, fresh and gusty SE winds are expected to cause an Extreme Fire Danger
in the Pilbara District on Saturday.
 
Now all I need is some moisture for the storms....then BOOM! :) but I will have to wait until November for that.
 
Currently at 2am it's only just starting to cool down a bit with the temperature at 27.5C.
 
Regards
JJ
 
Karratha Weather Observations
http://www.karrathaweather.org
E-mail
Webmaster - webmaster at karrathaweather.org
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p57-max41.syd.ihug.com.au [216.132.22.249] claimed to be storm.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0 Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2000 09:14:53 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weekend storm prospects ( not ) & Deja Vous Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Michael, Even though time will tell, I don't think this will be the case. I know the synoptic situation was similar, but I think that we had mostly sunny skies with some high cloud. The trough stalled but there was a SE change. I recall coming out into the Hunter to see castellanus galore. However, In this case, I think there will be a more cloud and a rain band as there is a lot of moisture in the middle layers of the atmosphere. So this will be the only difference. I think if you could get good breaks in the cloud then the conditions are ideal for better storms. But time will tell. What also followed at that time was a major cold front with prefrontal trough on day three which basically ended our chase in SE Qld. We were quite impressed by some of the storms we had around Stanthorpe and Tenterfield on the second of the phase two of the major chase. Jimmy Deguara At 09:24 PM 6/10/00 +1000, you wrote: >I have feeling that Sydney tomorrow and Sunday is going to be almost a dead >copy of the 3rd and 4th October 1998. These days some of may recall were >the start of the second week of the first ever organised chase. > >On that Saturday there was a meeting of chasers at Rooty Hill. Clyve Herbert >from Victoria had joined the crew. I forget the actual temperature but it >was over 30C with a hot dry NW/W wind. Much the same conditions as predicted >for tomorrow ! > >Overnight a SE wind changed moved through Sydney, taking with it the chances >of storms. Myself, Jimmy, Clyve and Paul Yole headed north and at 1pm had >caught up with cumulus development over the Liverpool ranges, larger storms >were evident to the east of Armidale. > >Guess what, I think this Sunday will almost be a repeat. I have a feeling >that the trough will slide through early morning on Sunday again taking >action to the upper hunter and mid north coast. > >Michael Thompson >http://thunder.simplenet.com > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2000 07:47:35 +0800 From: Greg Spencer X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.74 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very hot in the NW 40C! - Extreme Fire Danger Today :\ Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Good to hear :-)) hopefully not too much longer before some of that heat finds its way down to Perth :-))) Regards Greg Karratha Weather wrote: > Hi all Well the heat has definitely arrived here in the North West > this week! > Sunday Oct 1st: 36.3C - Early seabreeze with the max at 11amMonday: > 34C - Early Seabreeze > Tuesday: 40.2C - very early max at 11:20am - First 40C for the spring > Wednesday: 33.8C - Early Seabreeze kept the temp downThursday: 29.2C - > coolest day of the week but extremely humid! with the RH staying > around 70-80% for most of the day. At one stage at the Airport it was > 30C / 25C DPFriday 40.3C - practically no seabreeze what so ever with > the temperature still hovering around 36C at 6:30pm (After sunset!) > the temperature only dropped to below 30C at 11:20pm when it was > 29.9C Today is set to be another sizzler with 40C forecast and an > Extreme Fire Danger for the Pilbara district due to the very hot > conditions and strong dry S/SE'ly winds. KARRATHA: > Fine. Hot. Fresh S/SE winds, gusty at times in the morning, late > afternoon > seabreeze. > Temperatures Minimum: 19 Maximum: 40 > UV Index: 9 [VERY HIGH]PILBARA: > Fine. Very hot near the coast. S/SE winds, fresh and gusty in the > morning. > Afternoon coastal sea breezes. > > Outlook for Sunday : Hot.BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE > > FIRE WEATHER WARNING > Issued at 8:00pm WST on Friday, 6th of October 2000 > FOR THE PILBARA DISTRICT > > Hot, dry, fresh and gusty SE winds are expected to cause an Extreme > Fire Danger > in the Pilbara District on Saturday. Now all I need is some moisture > for the storms....then BOOM! :) but I will have to wait until November > for that. Currently at 2am it's only just starting to cool down a bit > with the temperature at 27.5C. RegardsJJ Karratha Weather Observations > > http://www.karrathaweather.org > E-mail > Webmaster - webmaster at karrathaweather.org +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2000 13:03:01 +1000 From: Jane ONeill X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie-wx Subject: aus-wx: WX:Victoria & MSC test page Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, Keep an eye on the trailing edge of the cloudband crossing Victoria this afternoon - there's an obvious 'kink' which is currently near the borders of Vic & Sa where they meet the sea http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsd.jpg - this could be an indication of cyclogenesis later this afternoon as the cloudband moves eastwards. Macca & I have been keeping half an eye on it all morning. ..and if you have half a second spare, I've been doing a bit of 'test redesign' and wouldn't mind know what your impressions are of the background & colours - the page I'm currently testing is Why is it so????? http://www.stormchasers.au.com/why.htm Please email me off list (especially if you want to tell me it's horrible) at cadence at stormchasers.au.com Thanks, Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2000 13:17:06 +1000 From: Jane ONeill X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie-wx Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Stormtrack site update Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com For those of you not on the wx-chase mailing list in the USA, this new site is well worth an explore... Subject: Merging of Storm Track & Storm Chaser Homepage -- new site Storm Track, SCH merger produces chase megasite October 5 - Today marks the first official day of the new Storm Track Storm Chaser Homepage. This new site located at http://www.stormtrack.org/ is an official merger of the old Storm Track (ST) and NIU Storm Chaser Homepage (SCH). The former ST site began redirecting visitors today. SCH will do likewise but will offer a frozen version of the old SCH pages. The vast size of both web sites posed a massive maintenance problem. Said ST editor Tim Marshall, "Tim Vasquez and Gilbert Sebenste said they do not have the time to constantly maintain their respective web pages. So I wanted to see if we should combine our efforts or shut everything down. Tim and Gilbert informed me that a merger of ST and SCH is what they want, and I agree too". To relieve the one-man-band syndrome, the new site was founded on the principle of allowing independent volunteer work throughout the site. About half a dozen expert volunteers make up the new ST/SCH site, and have their own FTP access to various areas. This allows them to work independently and with minimal editorial oversight. Marshall, Vasquez, and Sebenste have site-wide privileges and will edit various sections as their time allows. Sebenste reassured us that there will be no changes to NIU's Storm Machine. "It will be staying at NIU because of the NOAAPORT feed it gets. That requires 3 T1 lines and a Unix box," he said. SCH features such as the Partners database and ST features such as the Who's Who listing continue at the new site. The new site is also on an OC3 hub, which delivers one of the fastest Web connections available. The former ST and SCH sites were on T1 and T3 links. The new site offers a vast educational library, expanded links section, a fresh list of real-time data links, and a dozen new "Funnel Funnies". Major changes and improvements will be in store over the coming months as work progresses. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weekend storm prospects ( not ) & Deja Vous Date: Sat, 7 Oct 2000 13:44:29 +1000 Organization: X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com As you said time will tell. I agree that 1998 had no cloud bands ( hardly any clouds for that matter ). But there is something about the models that are steering me away from a cloud band rain event much further north than say Wagga through to Batemans Bay. That is the models are going for the best falls on the coast, cloud bands tend to give their best on or west or the ranges. My feeling is that coastal thunderstorms may develop north of say the central coast tomorrow. As for a major front, there does seem to be a similar case in store for Wednesday, I am still going for a repeat of the second week chase of 1998, although with the stronger jets at present I am still optimistic about some storms going severe. Michael > Even though time will tell, I don't think this will be the case. I know the > synoptic situation was similar, but I think that we had mostly sunny skies > with some high cloud. The trough stalled but there was a SE change. I > recall coming out into the Hunter to see castellanus galore. However, In > this case, I think there will be a more cloud and a rain band as there is a > lot of moisture in the middle layers of the atmosphere. So this will be the > only difference. I think if you could get good breaks in the cloud then the > conditions are ideal for better storms. But time will tell. What also > followed at that time was a major cold front with prefrontal trough on day > three which basically ended our chase in SE Qld. We were quite impressed by > some of the storms we had around Stanthorpe and Tenterfield on the second > of the phase two of the major chase. > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2000 03:57:30 +1000 From: Don White X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Forecasts & their Accuracy Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Following my note late yesterday about the lack of consideration of available information by the Bureau forecasters in the Sydney office, my note to this list at that time indicated that given the expected upper winds today (2-5000 ft), then there would be a much bigger temp difference between coastal Sydney and the western suburbs than the 2 degrees forecast. Anyone who took my only public issue forecast on 1902937039 would know that I indicated yesterday morning that Friday's city temps would be in the low to mid 30s (same as out west-against BOM of 27 then updated to 30) and this morning, today's tops would be in the high 20s (against BOM of 35). As it turned out yesterday was 35 and today 27. Over the years, the importance of the 2000 to 5000 ft wind strength and their directions cannot be under estimated in calculating the effect / development /timing etc of the sea breeze in Sydney - one of the most significant features in the forecasting of tempertaures across the city. Whoever was the duty forecaster on the morning forecasting shift yesterday and this morning should either be reprimanded for being slack or given a brush up on forecasting tempertaures for Sydney in summer. Why I bag the Bureau is that neither of these things will happen - noboby cares! Sure, we all make mistakes and the chaos theory input into the weather makes it the challenging science that it is but the sooner the restrictive copyright practices that the Bureau places on the use of raw data collected at the Publuc expense are changed and it allows a bit of public competition, the better... we will all benefit. Don White PS If anyone from the Bureau reads this I would be interested to hear their thinking on why their forecast temps were so wrong - we could perhaps all learn from their mistakes. The Melbourne ones were way off the mark yesterday but so were mine - I'm looking into how it could have been picked up. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2000 16:53:07 +1000 From: Jane ONeill X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie-wx Subject: aus-wx: WX: NSW Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Below are the most recent observations for central & southern NSW - wind direction & speed, air temp & dewpoint (M02 is -2C), barometric pressure. Pretty interesting to see how dry the air is at places like Condoblin & Coonamble & how the air mass is starting to be modified further south - look at Wagga & Mildura in comparison - btw, Mildura is 8/8 overcast & has had recent showers. It'll be interesting to see the developments in southern NSW as this cloudband gets into the areas with serious heating. Could be some interesting sotrms in the dark hours with the convection already starting up on the SW Slopes. BOURKE YBKE 34007KT 35/M01 Q1011 BROKEN HILL YBHI 18011KT 25/09 Q1012 COBAR YCBA 28008KT 35/01 Q1011 CONDOBOLIN YCDO 29014KT 35/M11 Q1010 COONAMBLE YCNM 36001KT 34/M03 Q1012 DUBBO YSDU 28010KT 33/06 Q1013 FORBES YFBS 21012KT 34/02 Q1010 GRIFFITH YGTH 21019KT 26/09 Q1011 IVANHOE YIVO 0500Z 21015KT 33/09 Q1010 MILDURA YMIA 21005KT 18/14 Q1014 MOREE YMOR 01005G18KT 32/00 Q1013 PARKES YPKS 33014KT 32/05 Q1012 TIBOOBURRA YTIB 32011KT 36/M02 Q1010 WAGGA WAGGA YSWG 24011KT 24/10 Q1013 WALGETT YWLG 30008KT 35/M06 Q1012 WEST WYALONG YWWL 22020KT 31/07 Q1011 WILCANNIA YWCA 32010KT 38/M00 Q1009 Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2000 17:56:57 +1000 From: Jane ONeill X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie-wx Subject: aus-wx: MSC Weather Cafe Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, I've combined the 'Links to Australian Websites' page with the 'MSC Cafe' & am in the process of creating a library of links to all sorts of places, including all of the Australian websites I know of. If you have a look and you don't find your site, please let me know at cadence at stormchasers.au.com & I'll link to you. http://www.stormchasers.au.com/forecasting.htm Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Forecasts & their Accuracy To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Sat, 7 Oct 2000 18:23:53 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > PS If anyone from the Bureau reads this I would be interested to hear > their thinking on why their forecast temps were so wrong - we could > perhaps all learn from their mistakes. The Melbourne ones were way off > the mark yesterday but so were mine - I'm looking into how it could have > been picked up. Can't speak for Sydney, but Melbourne was a timing problem - the change went through at about 0730 - had it not reached the city then it would have been at or above the forecast max of 24 by 0900. The forecast was amended to 20, but I'm not sure when. A cool change due near 0900 in Melbourne (or Adelaide) is a forecaster's nightmare in mid-summer - a 10-minute difference in timing can make the difference between a maximum well into the 30s and one near 20. I suspect this is the reason why 29 is forecast so often on the rear end of heatwaves... Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Dean Sgarbossa" To: Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: F3 tornado in Heidelberg, South Africa. Date: Sat, 7 Oct 2000 19:52:26 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello all,
    First of all, i would like to apologize for my absence on this list over the past few months for my computer decided to go "psycho" on me and I ended up losing everything, including one and a half years worth of research.
    For those of you who may not already know this but an F3 tornado occured in Heidelberg, South Africa on 21st October 1999. I just found a report on this tornado while I was searching through the Electrical Journal of Operational Meteorology archives at the National Weather Association. The URL is as follows:
    This is a great read and I recommend the visitto the NWA's website: http://www.nwas.org/.
    Hope you guys like!
 
Deano
From: "Pearce" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Forecasts & their Accuracy Date: Sat, 7 Oct 2000 22:17:58 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.3018.1300 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Don Very interesting comments re the seabreeze in Sydney and its relationship with low to mid level winds. I just wondered if you could give a little more detail on what particular patterns you should look for in terms of cutoffs for likely seabreeze development etc? Like is there a certain speed at a certain level that would almost certainly stop a seabreeze from developing and what is it? I noticed that the winds were very light all the way up to 500mb this morning which presumably would have helped the lack of a seabreeze developing. Meanwhile, I'll continue to wait for this southerly with a fan on me... Matt +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Sat, 7 Oct 2000 22:22:33 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au To: Aussie-wx Subject: aus-wx: WEATHER: Did anyone else see this at ~6pm today....? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all A band of cumulus congestus passed through Melbourne around 6:00pm today. I observed it from my 11th floor room, 20km to the southeast of the CBD, as it passed over the CBD, with some small scuddy, raggedy lowerings present here and there...no drama here. At 6:08pm I noticed a full, fat, conical shaped lowering extending from a smooth base. The tallest buildings in the CBD are about 1 degree high, and this lowering would not have been greater than 1/4 degree (width at widest point would have been less than this). It was noticeable with the eye, and particular so with my lil 8x21 binoculars. I managed to get a couple of shots with my 300mm lens. It lasted for a couple of mins. Can anyone else confirm or deny what this was (ie at this stage I'm thinking it was a funnel, but I could be wrong)? BTW Jane, I think the colours on the websites are good. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ Department of Mathematics and Statistics Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2000 22:50:50 +1000 From: Jane ONeill X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cape York Peninsula Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com If you're interested in the mechanics of the upper flows and jets, the cirrus over Cape York Peninsula is presently tracing out the 300hPa easterly flow which is wrapping around a slack area of lower pressure. Have a look at the following 2 images: http://207.133.112.37/gms5/austwv.jpg (water vapour image) http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/init/avn_4panel_init_aus.html (panel on the top right is the 300hPa flow) Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cape York Peninsula Date: Sat, 7 Oct 2000 21:47:13 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com What the WV image also shows Jane is an excellent example of a NW Cloud Band (the 1st for sometime??) and how it sucks its "petrol" that is the water way in from the Indian Ocean. It is also another excellent example of what causes "gulf lines" - the seabreeze front that gives the Top End showers / storms ---> when in full wet season sometimes severe multicell storms. Thanx for the info Jane! Paul. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Saturday, October 07, 2000 10:20 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cape York Peninsula > If you're interested in the mechanics of the upper flows and jets, the cirrus > over Cape York Peninsula is presently tracing out the 300hPa easterly flow > which is wrapping around a slack area of lower pressure. > > Have a look at the following 2 images: > http://207.133.112.37/gms5/austwv.jpg (water vapour image) > http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/init/avn_4panel_init_aus.html (panel on the > top right is the 300hPa flow) > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------