Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 00:13:24 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Some Video Captures of Today's Vortex
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Hi all!

Well, after a lot of battling with my capture card, it finally let me to
get a handful of usable captures, but they're all small, B/W and poorer
than usual quality.  None the less they give you an idea!

http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/14/KS303.JPG  <--- I was
experiencing strong winds here, but the strongest were a fraction after
this, when my car was pushed to the left, you can make out some sort of
boundary between the vortex/spinup, and the other area.

http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/14/KS299.JPG <--- 1-2 seconds
after 303, better view of it, can make out the disturbance nicely

http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/14/KS304.JPG <--- Debris, looking
at the video, this branch is not flying straight, it seems to curve!  It
suggests that vorticity was not only present at the sfc, but just aloft,
which tends to suggest something other than eddie vorticity?  It also
suggests either one of two things:

- That a branch was broken off a small tree and lifted OR
- That a branch from a large tree was broken at that level, and carried
- BUT, the catch is, the only tall trees are to my right (ie north), or
behind me (ie east), or several hundred metres behind where that came
from!  I went back around lunchtime and surveyed the area, will comment
on that soon.  But if it was straight line winds, they'd be from the SW,
from the direction everything else came.  On the video you clearly do
see strong W'ly winds at first, but these change if you look closely. 
The other thing is, my car is pushed to the left while I'm heading west,
implying some northerly component.  I enter the vortex from the east
side, so one would expect a N'ly component while entertaing it from this
side!

Shear today was very strong, 45kn NW'ly  at  850mb, we had a 25-30kn N'ly
(and NE'ly in some areas!) ahead of a 30-35kn SW'ly change, this to me
is nearly perfect for non-supercellular tornadoes/vorticies!

I looked around for anymore damage, I found what was a narrow path of
more damage compared with the lesser damage, but this was not in a
straight line.  The difference in damage is negligible: ie small
twigs/branches vs large branches/small trees down, signs bent and
bins/portaloos knocked over.

Hope this is of some interest to people...
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: RE: Brisbane-wx
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 00:01:04 +1000
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Hi All,

Well, managed 18mm rain at Mt. Crosby in the early hours this morning, which
was most welcome.  W/SW winds commenced around 10:30am and strengthened to
savage (technical term) by 2:00pm under a 2/8 clearing sky.  Estimated gusts
at least to 85km/h, brought down a 30m spotted gum (40cm dbh) mid-afternoon
on an adjoining property.  A drive around the neighbourhood revealed at
least one other tree down, a 25m blue gum.

John.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2000 12:28:30 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: !!!!!!!!! at (#*!!!#$!!!#$ at !!!!!!!*(&#$!!!!!
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Ben (or someone?) wrote:

> Hi Everyone,
> 
> It is quite possible that i have just witnessed a tornado/gustnado!!!!!!
> 
> I saw a cone shaped lowering extending ALL the way to the ground in
between
> houses and trees at a set of lights - i was unable to take pics due to
the

This description fits that of a tornado but not a 'gustnado'.  The latter
are not characterized by a condensation funnel but rather by a whirl of
dust or small debris around the vortex as it moves across the earths
surface.  The 'gustnado' does not extend in an appreciable manner (if it
does it is weak) to cloud base and as such will not have a condensation
funnel extending downward from cloud base.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2000 12:31:13 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: FRONTS: ana & kata
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Jane wrote:

> There's a discussion at the moment on the uk.sci.weather newsgroup in
> the UK about ana- & kata-fronts.  Les Crossan has labelled fronts before
> so I was not unfamiliar with them.  The links below are pretty detailed
> and I'm curious to know what others think about the distinctions made &
> why this labelling is used in the UK but I can't find it anywhere else,
> ie: we don't here in Aus / NZ and the USA doesn't to my knowledge.

Unfortunately I am not at home (attending the NWA Annual meeting) so I
don't have access to my publications, however, Keith Browning and others
have written rather a lot of material on these fronts.  They are usually
discussed in conjunction with the "conveyer-belt" approach to synoptic
extra-tropical cyclone systems.  The reason you here so little about this
in the US is because the study of the extra-tropical cyclones is done in an
earth relative framework and not in a potential temperature and moving
cyclone relative framework of the conveyer-belt approach.  IMHO, the
conveyer-belt approach is considerably superior to the earth/ground
relative framework.  Jane, should you want more information on the
conveyer-belt approach, there are three options that come to mind.   The
first is to go to the list of references in my mesocyclone paper that you
already have up on the MSC home page.  There you will find, as I recall, 
two or three papers dealing with conveyer belts.  At least one of these has
a good discussion on the subjects of the Kata and Ana fronts and may be
accessible via the web.  Another option is to contact Keith Browning and
ask if he can send you either URL's or some of his reprints on the subject.
 Or, and you may have already done this, try a web search engine on the
subject.  (From this hotel and location I have very restricted internet
access or I would do some of this for you).  Finally, I hate to suggest
this, you already are  under heaps of  papers, but I believe that one or
two of these 'conveyer-belt papers' might be good additions to your web
page unless they are already up somewhere else on the web.  In fact, skip
my papers and put one or two of these up next.

Les (US)

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Some Video Captures of Today's Vortex
Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2000 17:17:59 +0100
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----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 14, 2000 3:13 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Some Video Captures of Today's Vortex


> Hi all!

Antrhony,

This sounds like a rainwrapped tornado, congratulations.

Les (UK)

------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast
www.uksevereweather.org.uk
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 07:36:39 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: !!!!!!!!! at (#*!!!#$!!!#$ at !!!!!!!*(&#$!!!!!
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<x-flowed>
I tend to agree Les.

One thing I would suggest Ben - try an pinpoint the area and do an 
extensive survey of the area where it occurred to see if there was damage 
of sorts like what Anthony did.

Great to see some action in Brisbane. This system was quite a system. Once 
you have storms in excellent windshear, anything can happen. I do believe 
that the system in NW NSW the night before would have been something to watch.

Well done Anthony and Ben!!!!

Jimmy Deguara

At 12:28 PM 14/10/00 -0400, you wrote:
>Ben (or someone?) wrote:
>
> > Hi Everyone,
> >
> > It is quite possible that i have just witnessed a tornado/gustnado!!!!!!
> >
> > I saw a cone shaped lowering extending ALL the way to the ground in
>between
> > houses and trees at a set of lights - i was unable to take pics due to
>the
>
>This description fits that of a tornado but not a 'gustnado'.  The latter
>are not characterized by a condensation funnel but rather by a whirl of
>dust or small debris around the vortex as it moves across the earths
>surface.  The 'gustnado' does not extend in an appreciable manner (if it
>does it is weak) to cloud base and as such will not have a condensation
>funnel extending downward from cloud base.
>
>Les
>
>************************
>Leslie R. Lemon
>Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
>Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
>E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
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From: "Simon" <borgprocrast at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Wind & Hail in Tyabb
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 07:14:37 EST
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<x-flowed>
Tyabb, Mornington Peninsula, Victoria

7:50am
Woken by heavy rain and heavy winds on a tin roof (wasn't particularly 
worried about being woken by this sound) - got up and had a look outside. 
Just getting over a respitory infection, I felt I probably shouldn't run 
outside, but gathering from the "wind duck" (don't ask) - the it appeared to 
be a NNW wind. I have no idea of wind speed, but on a scale of what I saw 
the other day when the squall came through the Mornington Peninsula, if I 
counted that as an 9/10, this was probably could this morning's episode as a 
5/10. (Hope that made sense)

7:55am
3mm hail - not very big, I know, but I've rarely seen hail bigger than this. 
It hailed for about 5 minutes, then the wind and the rain backed off 
completely to a light shower. The "wind duck" died completely with not even 
a breeze.'

8:05am
what happened? no rain, no wind. nichts.


- Simon


_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: !!!!!!!!! at (#*!!!#$!!!#$ at !!!!!!!*(&#$!!!!!
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 07:49:24 +1000
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Hi Everyone,

Thanks for the input Leslie, Jimmy.  I drove out to the area an hour or two
after i took the pics yesterday, but couldn't find any damage.  The area is
basically bushland seperated only by the odd house every few k's and one
road.  I guess this one will go in the 'maybe' basket, which is filling up
quickly!


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2000 7:36 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: !!!!!!!!! at (#*!!!#$!!!#$ at !!!!!!!*(&#$!!!!!


> I tend to agree Les.
>
> One thing I would suggest Ben - try an pinpoint the area and do an
> extensive survey of the area where it occurred to see if there was damage
> of sorts like what Anthony did.
>
> Great to see some action in Brisbane. This system was quite a system. Once
> you have storms in excellent windshear, anything can happen. I do believe
> that the system in NW NSW the night before would have been something to
watch.
>
> Well done Anthony and Ben!!!!
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 12:28 PM 14/10/00 -0400, you wrote:
> >Ben (or someone?) wrote:
> >
> > > Hi Everyone,
> > >
> > > It is quite possible that i have just witnessed a
tornado/gustnado!!!!!!
> > >
> > > I saw a cone shaped lowering extending ALL the way to the ground in
> >between
> > > houses and trees at a set of lights - i was unable to take pics due to
> >the
> >
> >This description fits that of a tornado but not a 'gustnado'.  The latter
> >are not characterized by a condensation funnel but rather by a whirl of
> >dust or small debris around the vortex as it moves across the earths
> >surface.  The 'gustnado' does not extend in an appreciable manner (if it
> >does it is weak) to cloud base and as such will not have a condensation
> >funnel extending downward from cloud base.
> >
> >Les
> >
> >************************
> >Leslie R. Lemon
> >Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> >Phone: 816-373-3533, cell: 816-213-3237
> >E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2000 21:23:14 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: NSW Rain
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An area of very heavy rain with the trough line that passed through on
Friday night in NE NSw. The area extended from Murrurundi in the upper
Hunter with 80 mm across the Liverpool Range to Quirindi - 97 mm, Keeva
83 mm and further to the NW, Upper Horton 88 mm.  I hear unofficial
reports to 120 mm SW of Quirindi.
The 97 mm in 24 hours at Quirindi must be at least in their top decile
of daily falls. Anyone (Blair???) have any way of chacking up on this?

Don W
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Conditions & Twister movie
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 09:57:51 +1000
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Another windy start to the day here. A 31.5kmh gust at 5am this morning from
the SW, with a "big" dump of point 3mm of rain at the same time. Only got
down to 9 overnight but felt much colder than that with the SW breeze of
course. Currently sitting on 13 with about 25-30kmh gusts from the SW still.
Anyone see what make of truck that was in the Twister movie? The one the
stars of the movie were driving. The red one with the tin can full of ping
pong balls in it on the back. Reckon I want to get one. You can drive it
through all sorts of stuff like a petrol tanker that has just blown up in
front of you, and then a house that has "rolled" onto the road. You can then
crash it through this house and out the other side without denting it or
breaking the windscreen. My old ute gets a bit of rough treatment, but I
don't think it'd be tough enough to go through that, so thought I better buy
one of those ones instead........

Bussie (NE Victoria)


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 09:14:23 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy rain in SE QLD
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Hi Chris,

One of the interesting things to do is compare Brisbane local and broad
radars...the broad seems to have it much more intense (this has only
happened in the past 2 months or so, it used to be slightly more
intense, now it's significantly more intense).  I think that the broad
may over-estimate in some cases.  But the Brisbane local radar is very
poor, in the fact that it severely under-estimates.  I have had 31.4mm
in 10mins from yellow (10-20mm/hr rain rate) on local sitting over me. 
A few nights ago too, when I got torrential rain it was only showing up
as 2-10 and 10-20, and again on the squall line it underpainted!

AC

chris.nitsopoulos at jcu.edu.au wrote:
> 
> Hi everyone
> 
>           Whoever has access to radar might be interested to know that there
> are a few spots of red and pink around Brisbane and Gladstone. I've long
> thought that both those radars are a little sensitive so I'd like to hear from
> anyone that is currently undergoing these showers or storms. Here in Townsville
> we have received a little over 5 mm thus putting an end to our dry spell of
> just over 110 days. Attached is a copy of the radar I'm talking about.
> 
>                  CHEERS:      Chris Nitsopoulos
> 
>   ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>  [Image]

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 10:42:26 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        Lyndon Grimmer <l.grimmer at bom.gov.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Snowfall on Ayers Rock
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Morning all,

Robert Goler has put together a website concerning this event which
utilises that wonderful site that was 'discovered' last week.  Go here
to have a look......
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/1997_07_11/Uluru_snowfall.html

I've linked to his site from 'Why is it so????" on MSC
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/why.htm

It'd be great to be able to build a resource around this event similar
to the one we have done on the April 14,1999 Sydney hailstorm, but leads
as far away as NZ have proved to be dissapointing - so if you have any
information about this event, however uninteresting you may think it,
please don't hesitate to either let the list know or drop me an email
(including photos, video, eye witness reports).

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Met Support 3" <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: FORECAST: Possibly interesting Monday in NSW
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 13:40:50 +1100
Organization: The Weather Company
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
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<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2920.0" name=GENERATOR>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Tomorrow has the potential to be interesting around 
the central ranges of NSW in the afternoon, despite the fact nothing has been 
picked up by the BoM. A weak southerly change is expected to drift up the NSW 
coast in the afternoon, combined with the passage of a fairly substantial upper 
trough over the southeast of the country. Middle levels are expected to 
destabilise moderately, with 500 temps progged to drop to around -21C around 
Bathurst by 5pm. The biggest problem as I see it will be low level moisture, or 
more specifically the lack of it. Today's strong southwesterlies have really 
dried out NSW, but if we can get a surge of moisture from the southerly, you 
never know...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Matt Pearce</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The Weather Company<BR>Meteorological Support 
Desk<BR><A 
href="http://www.theweather.com.au">http://www.theweather.com.au</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.88.41]
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Big change on the way for nearly the whole of Australia
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 12:43:31 CST
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 15 Oct 2000 03:13:31.0997 (UTC) FILETIME=[E5AF60D0:01C03655]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Very interesting event developing over WA with a low pressure trough
deepening well.  Rain is expected as early as tomorrow afternoon in the far 
west of SA (Monday), then spreading slowly east on Tuesday.  There looks 
like there will be some high potential for good rainfall totals as the low 
pressure deepens even further as it moves south east.  One low centre is 
expected to be near Kangaroo Island on Tuesday night.  Could anyone give 
even more details on this system?

Hopefully it will have higher dew points ahead of it unlike the last one at 
the end of the week that didn't produce much rain over the south of SA due 
mainly to a lack of moisture levels.  If this system was to produce some 
high rain totals in Adelaide then some minor flooding and filling of dams 
could occur due mainly to relatively good moisture levels in the ground 
already.  Another system is due in on the weekend which could make things 
even better.  Many of the forecasts keep on metioning uncertain a lot so I 
am not going to get my hopes up too much for this system although it looks 
hopeful.  By the way it could be one of our best chances yet for t'storm 
activity in Adelaide for a while.  I want to hear more people discuss what 
they think this system is capable of this week.




_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Sender: skerans at mail.cth.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.5 (32)
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 14:26:57 +0000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Sel Kerans <skerans at mail.cth.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Nature's Forecasters?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hello everyone,

Not sure how many of you believe this kind of thing, but...

Queensland is in for a very wet, wet season if you believe the wildlife
that live in the area. Sunday Mail reports that curator of Botanical
Gardens and others have been noting:

* Scrub Turkeys are building their nests higher and larger than they have
for years.

* Wood ducks have more chicks than normal this year.

* Water dragon lizards have come out of hibernation and are mating earlier
than normal.

* The plovers are nesting earlier than normal and they have hatched chicks
like never before.

The year has been dry but all signs like this indicate a wet Summer break -
a rainy Chirstmas? We can only wait and see if our natural weather
forecasters are right!

Ants are building nests higher where I live, starting this week before the
two rainy days we had.

There are many of these 'Nature's Weather Watch' items at my web site,
collected by classes from Australia, USA and Singapore - some perhaps
accurate and other stuff so questionable it is quite funny. 

http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa/folklore.htm

(Anyone seen a halo around the moon with stars inside it, counted the stars
as the number of days it would rain, quite soon? (Always thought there was
something funny about Stanthorpe farmers...)

Here's hoping for a good storm season in Queensland - my camera is getting
quite restless and may leave home soon otherwise!

Sel Kerans
Elimbah Qld
http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa/elimbah.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  Sel Kerans                                        
  Coordinator                                  \|/        &&&&&
  Project Atmosphere Australia On-line         -0-  .--_|\ "/"
  WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa       /|\ /      \ \
  Email: skerans at mail.cth.com.au                   \_.--\_/ 
  EQ: sel.kerans at qed.qld.gov.au                          v
  	         
  ph 07 3881 9623 fax 07 3881 9640
                  
   *** Now taking registrations from schools around the world ***
   *** On-line activities scheduled for March, April, May 2000 ***          
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nature's Forecasters?
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 15:53:36 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Sel, Everyone

There was a guy on the radio a few days ago stating that we would get a
30mm+ rain event on October 21 simply because a spring on his property
started running, and it always rains exactly 21 days after it starts running

Some of the models were interesting the other day, with a rain system
forecast to effect Brisbane/SE QLD around October 21 - i'm now not so sure
it'll be a rain system as such for us on the coast - but i wouldn't totally
rule out 30mm from storms


----- Original Message -----
From: "Sel Kerans" <skerans at mail.cth.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 16, 2000 12:26 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Nature's Forecasters?


> Hello everyone,
>
> Not sure how many of you believe this kind of thing, but...
>
> Queensland is in for a very wet, wet season if you believe the wildlife
> that live in the area. Sunday Mail reports that curator of Botanical
> Gardens and others have been noting:
>
> * Scrub Turkeys are building their nests higher and larger than they have
> for years.
>
> * Wood ducks have more chicks than normal this year.
>
> * Water dragon lizards have come out of hibernation and are mating earlier
> than normal.
>
> * The plovers are nesting earlier than normal and they have hatched chicks
> like never before.
>
> The year has been dry but all signs like this indicate a wet Summer
break -
> a rainy Chirstmas? We can only wait and see if our natural weather
> forecasters are right!
>
> Ants are building nests higher where I live, starting this week before the
> two rainy days we had.
>
> There are many of these 'Nature's Weather Watch' items at my web site,
> collected by classes from Australia, USA and Singapore - some perhaps
> accurate and other stuff so questionable it is quite funny.
>
> http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa/folklore.htm
>
> (Anyone seen a halo around the moon with stars inside it, counted the
stars
> as the number of days it would rain, quite soon? (Always thought there was
> something funny about Stanthorpe farmers...)
>
> Here's hoping for a good storm season in Queensland - my camera is getting
> quite restless and may leave home soon otherwise!
>
> Sel Kerans
> Elimbah Qld
> http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa/elimbah.htm
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
>   Sel Kerans
>   Coordinator                                  \|/        &&&&&
>   Project Atmosphere Australia On-line         -0-  .--_|\ "/"
>   WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa       /|\ /      \ \
>   Email: skerans at mail.cth.com.au                   \_.--\_/
>   EQ: sel.kerans at qed.qld.gov.au                          v
>
>   ph 07 3881 9623 fax 07 3881 9640
>
>    *** Now taking registrations from schools around the world ***
>    *** On-line activities scheduled for March, April, May 2000 ***
>  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Conditions & Twister movie
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 17:04:45 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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That would be a Dodge Ram that they were driving.  The one in the film had
the automatic tanker avoidance and interior redecoration unit fitted.

I am led to believe that it also had the heavy farm equipment proximity
alert system installed, that was the calls of 'Left, Right, Left' that you
could hear as the harvesters were dropping from the sky.  Blue sky at that
too.

(Stupid) As always,

Chris

----- Original Message -----
From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2000 9:57 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Conditions & Twister movie


> Another windy start to the day here. A 31.5kmh gust at 5am this morning
from
> the SW, with a "big" dump of point 3mm of rain at the same time. Only got
> down to 9 overnight but felt much colder than that with the SW breeze of
> course. Currently sitting on 13 with about 25-30kmh gusts from the SW
still.
> Anyone see what make of truck that was in the Twister movie? The one the
> stars of the movie were driving. The red one with the tin can full of ping
> pong balls in it on the back. Reckon I want to get one. You can drive it
> through all sorts of stuff like a petrol tanker that has just blown up in
> front of you, and then a house that has "rolled" onto the road. You can
then
> crash it through this house and out the other side without denting it or
> breaking the windscreen. My old ute gets a bit of rough treatment, but I
> don't think it'd be tough enough to go through that, so thought I better
buy
> one of those ones instead........
>
> Bussie (NE Victoria)
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 18:18:37 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 2000:The Year of the Baroclinic Leaf, but not the Year of the ECL
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Afternoon all,

Another baroclinic leaf in WA??????

Surface systems respond to the conditions, systems & flows in the upper
atmosphere don't they???? I always tend to look at everything else first
before I look at the MSL, work out what I think is happening in all
levels (except the surface) of the atmosphere from the analyses (not the
models), and then surprise myself by discovering that the MSL reflects
what's happening in the upper atmosphere - does this mean I'm doing this
the right way?

Along with the surface low that has developed in WA, an 850hPa low
developed to the NW of the area of middle & upper level cloud that is
apparent on the infrared images. There is a strengthening 300hPa jet to
the north of the area  & a (weak?) 300hPa trough just to its SW.
Steering flow seems to be from the NW - does this mean that it will
track across Adelaide - and then Victoria?

Temperature at an altitude of 848m this afternoon at 4pm was 5.8C -
small hail east of Warburton to the NE of Melbourne at 2.30pm - aaah,
October in Victoria!!  Some photogenic high based showers over the
eastern suburbs a while ago.

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Rodney Aikman" <raikman at austar.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 2000:The Year of the Baroclinic Leaf, but not the Year of the ECL
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 20:30:07 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
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Jane,
          I personly think that in most cases surface cyclogenesis can be
predicted a few days earlier by looking at divergance, jet flows, position
of the longwave trough, cloud development etc. at different levels, and this
is a logical way to look at it.
Regards
Rod Aikman
-----Original Message-----
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sunday, October 15, 2000 5:36 PM
Subject: aus-wx: 2000:The Year of the Baroclinic Leaf, but not the Year of
the ECL


>Afternoon all,
>
>Another baroclinic leaf in WA??????
>
>Surface systems respond to the conditions, systems & flows in the upper
>atmosphere don't they???? I always tend to look at everything else first
>before I look at the MSL, work out what I think is happening in all
>levels (except the surface) of the atmosphere from the analyses (not the
>models), and then surprise myself by discovering that the MSL reflects
>what's happening in the upper atmosphere - does this mean I'm doing this
>the right way?
>
>Along with the surface low that has developed in WA, an 850hPa low
>developed to the NW of the area of middle & upper level cloud that is
>apparent on the infrared images. There is a strengthening 300hPa jet to
>the north of the area  & a (weak?) 300hPa trough just to its SW.
>Steering flow seems to be from the NW - does this mean that it will
>track across Adelaide - and then Victoria?
>
>Temperature at an altitude of 848m this afternoon at 4pm was 5.8C -
>small hail east of Warburton to the NE of Melbourne at 2.30pm - aaah,
>October in Victoria!!  Some photogenic high based showers over the
>eastern suburbs a while ago.
>
>Jane
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
>Melbourne Storm Chasers
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>ASWA - Victoria
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Fire Devil photo
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 21:06:55 +1000
Organization: 
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I finally got back the photos of that bushfire near my place early in the
month.

One shows a small ' fire devil ' for want of a better term. It looked better
in real life as you could see the twisting.

Located at http://www.ozemail.com.au/~michaelt/bushfire.html

scroll to bottom for close-up. Estimated about 20ft high.

Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 21:00:38 +1100 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
cc: Lyndon Grimmer <l.grimmer at bom.gov.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snowfall on Ayers Rock
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


> 
> Robert Goler has put together a website concerning this event which
> utilises that wonderful site that was 'discovered' last week.  Go here
> to have a look......
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/1997_07_11/Uluru_snowfall.html
> 

Due to time constraints last night, I had to finish this site off today,
where I've included geopotential height analyses for 200hPa, 500hPa and
850hPa. As you scroll down the page, you'll descend in height, so the
first plots you come to are those at 200hPa, then 500hPa, etc...


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 21:13:50 +1100 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
cc: Lyndon Grimmer <l.grimmer at bom.gov.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snowfall on Ayers Rock
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> 
> Robert Goler has put together a website concerning this event which
> utilises that wonderful site that was 'discovered' last week.  Go here
> to have a look......
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/1997_07_11/Uluru_snowfall.html
> 

Shit!
I've just discovered that those movie loops don't work with Internet 
Explorer. Sorry about that guys :-(
On Netscape they work fine. I'll have to deal with this some other time.


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FORECAST: Possibly interesting Monday in NSW
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 21:15:44 +1000
Organization: 
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV>We had an abrupt SE wind change here about 3pm, but it was only through 
  about the first 1000 -1500m of atmosphere, the cloud was being sheared back 
  towards to east after rising. I do not  know whether this would have provided 
  enough moisture. Me thinks unlikely, but tomorrow is another day.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Michael</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Tomorrow has the potential to be interesting 
  around the central ranges of NSW in the afternoon, despite the fact nothing 
  has been picked up by the BoM. A weak southerly change is expected to drift up 
  the NSW coast in the afternoon, combined with the passage of a fairly 
  substantial upper trough over the southeast of the country. Middle levels are 
  expected to destabilise moderately, with 500 temps progged to drop to around 
  -21C around Bathurst by 5pm. The biggest problem as I see it will be low level 
  moisture, or more specifically the lack of it. Today's strong southwesterlies 
  have really dried out NSW, but if we can get a surge of moisture from the 
  southerly, you never know...</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Matt Pearce</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The Weather Company<BR>Meteorological Support 
  Desk<BR><A 
  href="http://www.theweather.com.au">http://www.theweather.com.au</A></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Paul Mossman" <paulmoss at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storms & Rain in Darwin
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 19:49:21 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Howdy all.

After the initial phase of the trough proved a fizzer, today has seen
widespread rains & storms across NW Top End.

Darwin AP had 26mm, Channel Point (which is an island in Darwin Harbour only
approx. 1km from the City Centre) had 48mm.

This comes after heavy overnight rains across a vast area - Jabiru had
30oddmm , Adelaide River 56mm to namke a few.

And now I hopefully (according to Matt Pearces email) may see some Sydney
storms!! Hope so.

Paul in Sydney.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Graham" <gorzzzz at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Conditions & Twister movie
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 21:36:03 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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----- Original Message -----
From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2000 9:57 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Conditions & Twister movie


> Another windy start to the day here. A 31.5kmh gust at 5am this morning
from
> the SW, with a "big" dump of point 3mm of rain at the same time. Only got
> down to 9 overnight but felt much colder than that with the SW breeze of
> course. Currently sitting on 13 with about 25-30kmh gusts from the SW
still.
> Anyone see what make of truck that was in the Twister movie? The one the
> stars of the movie were driving. The red one with the tin can full of ping
> pong balls in it on the back. Reckon I want to get one. You can drive it
> through all sorts of stuff like a petrol tanker that has just blown up in
> front of you, and then a house that has "rolled" onto the road. You can
then
> crash it through this house and out the other side without denting it or
> breaking the windscreen. My old ute gets a bit of rough treatment, but I
> don't think it'd be tough enough to go through that, so thought I better
buy
> one of those ones instead........
>
> Bussie (NE Victoria)

Hi Bussie,
The red pickup in the movie was a Dodge Ram.....you can get a V10(!) motor
in it over in the States (I think)........the yellow one at the start (the
one that gets trashed) is a Jeep...I could be mistaken on that one.....
Cheer's
John from Ballina

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Pearce" <rpearce2 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms & Rain in Darwin
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 21:48:27 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.3018.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Great to hear about some of the action up north...

I must stress that the Sydney stuff is very much a chance, and that Sydney
will not be the prime development area if anything develops by the looks of
it. It looks to me like around the Central Tablelands area will be the best
bet as mentioned in my first email, and maybe actually a bit further north
if you can get that far. Northern Tablelands should be OK too. I will add
that none of this is certain, as it never is with these types of systems. I
only mention it because I do have a real soft spot for weak southerlies
moving up the NSW coast, especially when they are expected to be associated
with upper level troughs.

Keep an eye on it...

Matt

PS - Paul where are you????????? And why didn't you contact anyone?!?!

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 22:31:55 +1000 (AEST)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FORECAST: Possibly interesting Monday in NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Matt,

So what is the forecast? I'm sure something _has_ been picked up by the
BoM and they have had discussions about the situation similar to your's.
You have started a discussion, but made no forecast that could possibly be
meaningfully verified. They obviously feel the probability of anything
developing is too low to go onto a public weather forecast. The fact that
they don't say "chance of something interesting" or "you never know..."
doesn't mean they aren't aware of the situation!

Cheers,

Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au

CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic   3168

Ph +61 3 9905 9684

____________________________________________________________________

On Sun, 15 Oct 2000, Met Support 3 wrote:

> Hi all
> 
> Tomorrow has the potential to be interesting around the central ranges of NSW in the afternoon, despite the fact nothing has been picked up by the BoM. A weak southerly change is expected to drift up the NSW coast in the afternoon, combined with the passage of a fairly substantial upper trough over the southeast of the country. Middle levels are expected to destabilise moderately, with 500 temps progged to drop to around -21C around Bathurst by 5pm. The biggest problem as I see it will be low level moisture, or more specifically the lack of it. Today's strong southwesterlies have really dried out NSW, but if we can get a surge of moisture from the southerly, you never know...
> 
> Matt Pearce
> The Weather Company
> Meteorological Support Desk
> http://www.theweather.com.au
> 


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